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October 09, 2017

Comments

 joan

You are such an optimist. :)

Old Lurker

Happy I was not around last night.

Pretending that getting a "budget" through one house is the same as getting a budget made into law through Regular Order was a joke, right?

And talk about bastardizing the meaning of words, in common usage "budget" means the thoughtful allocation of limited resources among the priorities of the institution. Proposing to spend whatever it was - $4T - when a good chunk of that - $1T - comes from the man in the moon does not strike me as meeting the meaning of the word. Sprinkling Monopoly Money from a helicopter is not "Budgeting".

And don't get me started on pretending Bob Corker deserves to be employed by taxpayers in any capacity...or any other gang members of that loathsome TN Mafia either. Wasn't Hitler a decent author and artist before he became Chancellor?

Hi guys!

Good Morning.

Jack is Back!

Good morning dittos.

And just to be redundant and a thread's PITA, it is still a 66.7% chance and not 50/50 with the two remaining doors if you switch.

I see where KISS have found a new way to make BLM, the NFL and progs head's explode by pausing their concerts to lead the audience in the Pledge of Allegience. Talk about ratcheting it up a few notches.

mockmook

Indeed OL, any 'budget' that isn't scaling back the government is a joke.

And, again, here we have Trump being part of the swamp monster instead of trying to fix it.

(Standard Disclaimer: Yes, I know that Trump is better than 99% of the cowards in Congress)

Captain Hate

Willowed

For those who remain unconvinced at what boris stated, think of it this way: make it 100 shells and you get to pick one. After 98 shells are shown to be empty, do you really think there's a 50/50 chance that you've got the right one?

You're welcome

jimmyk

Ha, Meryl Streep says she just had no idea that Harvey Weinstein was such a bad guy. No idea whatsoever.

https://twitter.com/back_ttys/status/917370354208792576

Ed Morrissey‏Verified account @EdMorrissey

Translated: "We're reliable experts on every subject relating to how you should live your life, except on predators in our own backyard."

sbw

Anonamom’s list:

dietdoctor.com

WheatBellyBlog.com

MarksDailyApple.com

Whole30.com (a more severe elimination diet, but lots of great testimonials)

Posted by: anonamom

Porchlight

Captain, if someone else stepped in and got to choose between the two remaining shells, what are their odds of choosing correctly?

Extraneus

She should be asked if he ever gave her an "office tour."

JimNorCal

More cross currents of info and testimony for LV.
For anyone following each twist and turn.

https://westernrifleshooters.wordpress.com/2017/10/09/monday-rumint/
LV shooting victim: I was shot by a gunman in the crowd
and
LV shooter inside venue caught on tape

Porchlight

Happy Columbus Day! Wish the nation still celebrated it properly.

boris

Here are a couple of interactive websites where you can play the Monte Hall Game with 3 doors, 2 goats, and a car ...

http://math.ucsd.edu/~crypto/cgi-bin/MontyKnows/monty2?1+12444

http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/SimpleMontyHall/

And they will keep track of cars and goats so the odds can empirically determined.

Jack is Back!

boris,

And 70% (close to 66.7%) are winners if they switch:)

I have no idea why this is so hard for the 50/50 crowd.

Captain Hate

Porch, that's like saying Alabama versus a Division 3 team would be s 50/50 choice on who would win.

henry

That's why so many academics were embarrassed by Vos Savant.

sbw

I have no idea why this is so hard for the 50/50 crowd.

Because half the time I’m right and half the time I’m wrong.

windansea

more about Paddocks gambling and drinking, very strange that Wynn said zero drinking at his casinos, every other report like this one says he drank a lot.

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-vegas-shooting-gambler-20171009-story.html

Old Lurker

SBW "Because half the time I’m right and half the time I’m wrong."

Not according to your wife...

 narciso

And you think there would be video one way or another:

https://mobile.twitter.com/alimhaider/status/917234821746831361?p=v

boris

Porch, if you don't mind using playing cards to illustrate the point ...

The game "deck" is 10 cards, the deuce, trey, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 of clubs and the Ace of diamonds.

The dealer shuffles the 10 cards, then picks them up like a bridge hand and takes note of where the Ace of diamonds is.

The dealer lays down all 10 cards one by one face down.

Then, knowing which one is the Ace, the dealer starts turning over 8 non Ace cards one by one until there are only two left face down.

You get to pick one of those two cards ... what are the odds?

If you say 50/50 you are correct.

But what if you make your choice before the dealer turns over 8 non Ace cards?

That is different because you made your choice when the odds were 1 in 10, not when they were 50/50.

Marlene

The North End of Boston still proudly celebrates Columbus Day. The parade was held yesterday and the Boston Herald quotes several people. An older gentleman (an Italian immigrant) told the reporter..."politicians want to get rid of Columbus because he was rude to a few people." :)

Janet 🚬

"Each brave voice that is raised, heard and credited by our watchdog media will ultimately change the game." - Meryl Streep

When can we stop pretending that the old MFM is a watchdog?
They are protectors & marketers for the entire far left machine.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Brian Stelter‏Verified account @brianstelter

Is there any bigger story in politics today than the fitness of the President of the United States?

=========================
In my opinion, this is the next ploy, the 25th Amendment. Pence leaving that game and doing what the President wanted was a big signal.

You need the VP's cooperation to invoke unfitness. Not gonna happen.

Threadkiller

I have no idea why this is so hard for the 50/50 crowd.

Maybe the teachers are doing a shitty job of explaining it because they already get it?



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

sbw

Hah, OL! My wife sometimes says I’m right, but then she does what she thinks is righter.

 narciso

Apparently the Obama administration went after general Kelly as well, because Russian dressing at the gitmo px

Appalled

Miss M;

Just for the record, I do agree with you here. This idea has been rumbling on the left for a while.

Captain Hate on the iPhone

Stelter trying to act knowledgeable is so embarrassing. Good job, airport channel.

Jane (Stand against the Coup)

It's really not Columbus Day. That's October 12th - which is my sister's birthday - and the only reason I care.

jimmyk

Ok, my last try:

We can all agree that if Monty doesn't show one of the doors, then 1/3 of the time you'll have picked the car, and therefore if you switch, 1/3 of the time you'll have made a mistake, but 1/3 of the time you'll get the car.

Now if Monty shows you one of the doors with the goat (because he knows where the car is), it's still true that if you switch, 1/3 of the time you'll have made a mistake. But since now there are only two possibilities, that implies that 2/3 of the time you'll be correct.

 narciso

So why did murren sell a big block of shares, a weak before the attack?

www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/10/08/ryan-zinke-travel-probe-unmitigated-100-percent-bs

Threadkiller

It is worth it to read the entire Wikipedia link to understand why it is a brain teaser and how many people, including me, struggle with the concept. 1/2 is a component of the overall structure and the probability is based on the entire 1/3 game.

I found it more useful than being talked down to.

-peter

Concerning Let's Make a Deal, many years ago there was a song parodying Like a Rolling Stone by Dylan which mashed up the TV show and mentioned Carrol Merrill? Does anyone remember that besides me?

 narciso

So Obama was either a traitor, uranium one deal, Iran deal, Cuba deal, new start, or a fool. But not crazy.

Captain Hate

That's why so many academics were embarrassed by Vos Savant.

Thanks for pointing that out because I had no idea who she was.

Some things are difficult for otherwise smart people to understand conceptually. I noticed that in accounting classes a lot.

boris

If someone else steps in when there are 2 closed doors and one open door but not knowing which door the contestant chose then the odds of getting the car are 50 / 50.

Still, the contestant knows more than the new guy. The contestant knows that his choice was made when the odds were 33%.

Captain Hate

I found it more useful than being talked down to.

Did I do that because I tried hard not to? I even erased a few Cal Tech comments.

Thomas Collins

Sorry to be more of a PITA, JiB, but I missed the original query, although I have seen a lot about 50/50 and 66 2/3/33 1/3 and goats behind doors. What's the question? Is the question the odds of a prog being caught with a goat behind a door?

In Awe of Trump

The Monty Hall Problem does not, importantly, replicate the actual situation presented on Let's Make A Deal.

This is an excellent piece (even though from the NYT), cited in the relevant Wiki entry:

http://www.nytimes.com/1991/07/21/us/behind-monty-hall-s-doors-puzzle-debate-and-answer.html

The late, great, Monty Hall himself understood that the problem wasn't like the TV design:

quote:

After the 20 trials at the dining room table, the problem also captured Mr. Hall's imagination. He picked up a copy of Ms. vos Savant's original column, read it carefully, saw a loophole and then suggested more trials.

On the first, the contestant picked Door 1.

"That's too bad," Mr. Hall said, opening Door 1. "You've won a goat."

"But you didn't open another door yet or give me a chance to switch."

"Where does it say I have to let you switch every time? I'm the master of the show. Here, try it again."

On the second trial, the contestant again picked Door 1. Mr. Hall opened Door 3, revealing a goat. The contestant was about to switch to Door 2 when Mr. Hall pulled out a roll of bills.

"You're sure you want Door No. 2?" he asked. "Before I show you what's behind that door, I will give you $3,000 in cash not to switch to it."

"I'll switch to it."

"Three thousand dollars," Mr. Hall repeated, shifting into his famous cadence. "Cash. Cash money. It could be a car, but it could be a goat. Four thousand."

"I'll try the door."

"Forty-five hundred. Forty-seven. Forty-eight. My last offer: Five thousand dollars."

"Let's open the door."

"You just ended up with a goat," he said, opening the door.

The Problem With the Problem

Mr. Hall continued: "Now do you see what happened there? The higher I got, the more you thought the car was behind Door 2. I wanted to con you into switching there, because I knew the car was behind 1. That's the kind of thing I can do when I'm in control of the game. You may think you have probability going for you when you follow the answer in her column, but there's the pyschological factor to consider."

He proceeded to prove his case by winning the next eight rounds. Whenever the contestant began with the wrong door, Mr. Hall promptly opened it and awarded the goat; whenever the contestant started out with the right door, Mr. Hall allowed him to switch doors and get another goat. The only way to win a car would have been to disregard Ms. vos Savant's advice and stick with the original door.

Was Mr. Hall cheating? Not according to the rules of the show, because he did have the option of not offering the switch, and he usually did not offer it.

unquote

Threadkiller

You did not, CH. You and most others have been patient.

And I probably shouldn't have dumped that remark.

boris

"Did I do that ..."

Probably my pun from last night to sbw.

Sbw wrote "I map it to a car and a goat. Sue me"

I wrote: Suit yourself, but this is why I am always skeptical when people claim that most things in life can be resolved using "reason"

Sbw and I have an ongoing mild disagreement about the utility of resolving societal problems using reason.

IMO not much use when both sides are sure they are the only one being "reasonable".

Clarice Feldman

http://www.weeklystandard.com/the-human-stain-why-the-harvey-weinstein-story-is-worse-than-you-think/article/2009995#.Wdt7mdG66S9.facebook

Very good article.

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

This is the easiest way for me to grasp it:
If I pick door number one there is a 1/3 chance the car resides behind 1 and 2/3 chance behind the other two.
When Monty opens the first door the odds for my door do not now magically rise to 1/2. They remain at 1/3 and the odds of the other one remains at 2/3: the only difference is one of those two has now been eliminated.

Captain Hate

Is there a door behind which Corker isn't an idiot? Because Bob hasn't found it yet.

 narciso

The most charitable case is he was being blackmailed, over his insider trading deals, after that he's a knave.

So the dog trainer is trading in 10 year old accounts of the shooter, and somehow there is practically no contemporaneous video.

Threadkiller

Not you either, boris. This is my last mention of my vindictive comment.

BTW, did you catch my apology several threads ago?

Ignatz Ratzkywatzky

Clarice's link at 10:32 is superb but it does raise the question: why didn’t Lee Smith write the story?

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Dianne Feinstein has announced she is running for re-election. She is 84 years old. Why in the heck doesn't she retire?

 narciso

So why is it to wynn to point out, that murren is as incompetent as goodell,

Captain Hate

Very good article.

Yes, although I'm still uncomfortable with Roger Ailes being lumped in with the rest of the sleazeballs. I admit that I'm very biased because of how he helped Tammy Bruce with her career, and Rupert's new best friend, the Ferret.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

narciso,

ChiTown Lurker wants me to tell you that the stock sale by MGM's execs coincided with a $1 billion stock buy back announced in September and isn't anything nefarious.

Momto2

My alma mater saluted the military yesterday.

The entire 10 minutes is good but at 7:08 is a voice you might recognize! (don't miss the finale)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZReh8KjI44

:::chillbumps:::

Means even more amidst all the NFL disrespect.

p.s. They also won the game ~ War Eagle!!!

 narciso

I'm still not buying that story, new York magazine patented the weaponizing of these allegations with cosby then ailes then they suddenly went basenghi, what gives.

Las Vegas was one of the places that the hijackers last visited and apparently mgm had taken no security contingencied

Threadkiller

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/09/us/las-vegas-stephen-paddock-deposition/index.html

Gambled up to $1,000,000 a night? Sounds like whale material to me.

Threadkiller

Ugh. A video may auto play at the CNN link.

 narciso

Ok then, I'm suspucious of all these buybacks, were the announced at the time,

jimmyk

I also think the article is a bit too "understanding" of all the women who covered for him.

Lauren Sivan was ... “fearful of the power that Weinstein wielded in the media.” She was right and her fear was understandable.

Writing in New York Magazine, Rebecca Traister remembers the time when she asked Weinstein an interview question at a book party, he screamed at her, spit in her face, called her a “c—t,” and then put her boyfriend in a headlock and dragged him to the street. Traister said nothing at the time because she figured she had little chance against “that kind of force.”

I don’t blame her or Sivan for not saying anything, never mind reporting the story.

Does anyone seriously think they would have stayed silent if this had been a conservative like Clint Eastwood, or, say, Donald Trump?

Clarice Feldman

They would have had media support in that instance, jimmyk.

Take on Columbus Day http://takimag.com/article/the_new_worlds_oldest_villain_jim_goad#axzz4v1SAgKat

Extraneus

Since the Free Beacon seems to think that whatever's said on this show is news...

‘Morning Joe’ Weighs in on Pence’s NFL ‘Stunt’: ‘Utterly Appalling, Wasteful, Profligate, Disgusting Behavior’

The lefties are just pissed that even more people will support Trump over this.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Momto2,

Thanks for linking that half-time show! I am a great fan of marching bands and we are robbed of seeing them so much of the time due to commercials and crappy rock star half time shows.

Thomas Collins

Oh, OK, I think I understand what is being discussed. That genius lady cleaning the clock of some mathematicians. Switch makes sense to me. I haven't yet figured out what to do for one who changes his mind and decides he wants a goat, but is told by Monty he can't have the goat behind the door that has been opened. . . .

Thomas Collins

Happy Columbus Day. This thread has me wondering whether the car was being transported by the Nina, the Pinta, or the Santa Maria. . . .

mockmook

Here's how I visualized it:

[If too long, just go through the 3 scenarios]

“Suppose you’re on a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car, behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say #1, and the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to pick door #2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?”

You decide that you will always initially pick #1. Therefore, Monty can't open that door to show the goat or car (when tempting you to change). Monty will open #3 unless he can't (because of the auto, in that case he will show you #2). Anyway, Monty's 'strategy' is unknown to you.

Meanwhile, UNKNOWN to Monty, you decide YOU WILL SWITCH, and you WANT (if possible) to switch to #2.

So, let's go through the (limited) scenarios:

1) If the auto is behind #1, Monty shows you a goat in #3, you switch (as planned) to #2

LOSER

2) If the auto is behind #2, Monty shows you a goat in #3, you switch (as planned) to #2

WINNER

3) If the auto is behind #3, Monty must show you the goat in #2 BEFORE you tell him your decision to switch from #1 to #2. But, YOU STAY WITH YOUR DECISION TO SWITCH, and the only switch available is to #3 (where the car is).

WINNER

The unwavering decision to switch wins 2/3 of the time.

--------------

The "randomness" breaks down because you won't pick door #2 (with the planned switch) when you are shown its contents (the goat in scenario 3).

Note: Monty's and your strategy are 'random' and don't effect the problem because regardless which initial doors either of you strategize on, the outcome is the same.

DebinGA

That voice was a balm, Momto2, probably from RR's Normandy 40th anniversary speech

DebinGA

It seems unbelievable, given Trump's long public profile, that the 1-2 sentence pussy tape was all his legions of enemies could find. And even that doesn't come close to Vernon Jordan when asked to describe his and BC's numerous golf outings - "All we talked about was pussy."

mockmook

I.E., Monty is forcing you to be a winner 1/3 of the time and you win by chance the other winning 1/3 (50/50 of the remainder)

Appalled

jimmyk:

Well, the Access Hollywood thing stayed under wraps for a long while. You'd think, if politics were the only criteria, it would have appeared in 2010-2011, when Trump went birther.

Clarice Feldman

enough with the goats,pls..I'll never get it.

An interesting history lesson:https://mosaicmagazine.com/essay/2017/10/the-jews-will-have-to-wait/

Old Lurker

Doesn't Harry Reid like goats?

Threadkiller

Why would anyone think the pussy tape would come out when Trump went birther?

At that time the powers that be told us that being a birther was the ultimate political kryptonite.

No need to pile on when Trump already ruined himself. Save that card for later in the event that afterbirthers were completely wrong about the Chick-fil-A Crowd.

Thomas Collins

But he wasn't running for POTUS and capturing the GOP nomination, Appalled. Birther by 2010 wasn't a serious threat to Obama's election, and to the extent it was a threat, Trump wasn't significantly adding to the threat.

mockmook

And revealing Trump's 'pussy problem' wouldn't change the birther 'evidence'

BR

Thank you for the link, JimNorCal.

Kevlar Kid

MM and Deb... i replied to your comments of three threads ago on the last thread and found out there was a new one by the time I posted. Oh well. I tried. ;)

Kev Slow Hand

DebinGA

Thanks again, KK.

BR

Agreed, Narciso, re suspicious stock activity. It is a worthy area to look at. The 1 Oct LV event was obviously not spur of the moment. So stock activity in September or even earlier is relevant.

 narciso

That is a fascinating story, an addendum was one of the odd division chiefs for north Africa wee William eddy. Who later negotiated the sitdown with in saud was first first minister in the kingdom. Then state deoarrnent untellugence chuev at the time Marshall made he decision.
Closer to the present day, he was ray closes grand uncle who in turn founded hips.

BR

Continuing from previous thread. Btw, Narciso, did you see mine to you?

Expert analysis of Paddock photo

If there is an attempt to make Paddock seem like an alcoholic, this one photo with a shot glass may be the means. On the other side, we have Steve Wynn Interview speaking of 11 years' observation by hotel staff saying neither he nor Danley drank alcohol.

The whole video is worth watching, see how Youtube deleted his earlier video claiming it didn't upload properly after it had been up for two days with comments.

It's so heartwarming to see the good people of America, ordinary citizens, speaking out boldly.

Appalled

TK and TC:

You both raise a fair point. But it's not exactly addressing what jimmyk was telling us -- which was that, if a conservative in Hollywood (all 3 or 4 of them, if we include Monty Hall's goat) behaved like Weinstein, word would have circulated fast.

But we have this story about Trump, which sat around for more than 10 years.


pagar, a bacon, ham and sausage supporter

"Now that Harvey Weinstein, whose movies have done so much to attack conventional norms and whose money has funded so many prominent Democrats, has been exposed as a grotesque abuser of women, the resulting pressures are causing Democrats to embarrass themselves."

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2017/10/weinstein_ignites_democrats_bonfire_of_the_inanities.html

A political party that has caused the deaths of millions of innocent babies, bankrupted many many cities and states, added trillions of dollars to the national debt, etc claims to be embarrassed only when Harvey Weinstein is exposed.

This is insane, IMO.

Threadkiller

That is because Trump didn't behave like Weinstein, Appalled.

Threadkiller

What you are missing is someone coming forward with Trump's prints on their pussy, Appalled.

DebinGA

I had to set Clarice's link aside for later when it mentioned Bill Clinton's Normandy visit, which Spielberg likely directed. Remember Bill walking the beach alone? Suddenly stopping to pick up stones he happened upon ... with a U.S. naval ship perfectly positioned behind him for the pics? Remember his somber walk through Allied graves, seeing a U.S. flag on one ajar and stooping to right it while cameras flashed? Ugh. I'd need serious meds if HC had won.

Clarice Feldman

The pussy tape came out as a last ditch effort to sew up the womens vote and IMO is unrelated to the birther issue which we all know was first raised by Hillary herself. Interestingly it was grabbed and megaphoned by some of the very same celebs who knew full well about Harvey weinstein and never protested.
IMO Hollywood slit its own throat in the past few years.

Extraneus

Has anyone come forward admitting to sex with Weinstein?

Captain Hate

Please do not put the burden on the Dreamers to accept every aspect of comprehensive immigration reform to get a chance to become citizens of the United States," Sen. Richard Durbin, a Democrat who was part of the so called Gang of Eight senators that wrote the 2013 bill, told top administration officials at a hearing last week. "That's too much to ask."

Kind of like how Turban releasing the emails he exchanged with Hodgkinson is too much to ask.

Miss Marple the Deplorable

Extraneus,

I sure wouldn't admit it! Good grief, what man would want to have anything to do with someone who slept with THAT?

Extraneus

http://nypost.com/2017/10/07/i-witnessed-weinsteins-sleaziness-up-close-ex-waitress/

A fellow server told me: “When a girl arrived waiting for Harvey, we all knew what was in store for her. After a little small talk and a sip of champagne, there would be an ‘office tour’ — usually well past working hours, after which the girl would return looking worse for wear and barely able to finish the glass.”

One “office tour,” a term we used jokingly, began with a firm order from Weinstein that his table not be cleared, and so the food sat, untouched, for hours. When the uncomfortable girl finally returned about two hours later, they sat down and resumed conversation as if no time had passed, keeping us there until he decided he was ready to leave, often around midnight.

Still no names.

 narciso

Well I assume his wife, rimshot.

mockmook
But since now there are only two possibilities, that implies that 2/3 of the time you'll be correct.

Posted by: jimmyk | October 09, 2017 at 10:11 AM

Maybe one more jk? :)

It isn't clear what/which that means

Threadkiller


Has anyone come forward admitting to sex with Weinstein?

There was a photo posted yesterday that showed Hillary playing with his boobs.

DebinGA

One Hollywood related story waiting to be told is the black-balling of people who publicly fail to tow the prog line. Mel Gibson, Vince Vaughn, Tom Selleck come immediately to mind.

Thomas Collins

I think that in 2010, Appalled, Trump wasn't viewed as a threat to be able to put into place personnel and policies favored by conservatives. If in 2010 Trump had been viewed as a viable candidate for the 2016 nomination and had been viewed as someone who could put regulatory reform and Justice Gorsuch into place, the tape would have been released.

Re Harvey Weinstein being exposed: Thank Gaia that wasn't behind one of Monty's doors!

Old Lurker

Woods, Deb.

Extraneus

Heh, narc.

Has even one virtuous starlet come forward claiming they resisted Harvey's advances and didn't get the part?

Miss Marple the Deplorable

DebinGA,

Well, there was ONE other line about Trump:

Miss Marple the Deplorable

KevlarKid,

Went back and read your comment. What is "heart tonic?"

Thanks!

Porchlight

Porch, that's like saying Alabama versus a Division 3 team would be s 50/50 choice on who would win.

No, it isn't.

According to the rules of the problem, the final choice is between goat and car.

henry

Besides, as the #NeverTrumps keep telling us, Trump isn't conservative. Ergo, he gets the free pass. a little cognitive dissonance have you saying things more foolish than usual, Appalled?

Miss Marple the Deplorable

By the way, during the transition, did anyone besides me see Marla Maples going into Trump Tower? I found that interesting. Maybe they were discussing Tiffany's college choice.

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame