JustOneMinute

Getting Ready For The Weekend

Away we go again.

This Gun Control Op-Ed In The Times Was Widely Ignored. Too Bad.

A week ago the NY Times gave space to Dan Gross, who "was the president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence from 2012 to 2017 and is a co-founder of the Center for Gun Rights and Responsibility".

He delivered a truth bomb to the Times readership about the irrelevance of an assault weapons ban and made good points on other topics.

No one cared.

I Helped Lead the Gun Control Movement. It’s Asking the Wrong Questions.

A campaign galvanized by mass shootings and assault weapons will inevitably find itself in a dead end. But there’s a way out.

He bonds with his target audience by noting that hs own brother was critically injured in a mass shooting years ago. Then:

It also breaks my heart to see gun control supporters, part of a movement I once helped to lead, repeat the mistakes that doom us all to the unacceptable status quo: tens of thousands of shooting deaths a year.

The pattern is as familiar as it is tragic: In the immediate aftermath of a mass shooting, the main demand of political leaders and gun control groups is a federal assault weapons ban. The news media, which seems to pay attention to gun laws only in the wake of mass shootings, amplifies that call, mostly taking at face value the idea that an assault weapons ban is the best way to prevent “gun violence.” Then, as headlines about the latest calamity fade, so do the hopes of federal policy change.

The problem as he sees it is that since assault weapons aren't the crux of the problem, going after then won't be much of a solution. That is a familiar argument on the right but a breakthrough insight for much of the left:

I believe that is the wrong question and illustrates the problem with the gun control debate in the United States. Though it does not grab national headlines, the daily toll of gun deaths and injuries is just as horrifying as our mass shootings, and more preventable as a matter of policy. The gun control movement should focus on the deaths and injuries that are most common, rather than be galvanized by mass shootings like the one that put my brother in a coma.

Of the nearly 40,000 deaths involving guns in 2019, well under 1 percent were caused by what the F.B.I. defines as “active shooter” incidents. In an average year, around 60 percent of deaths involving guns are suicides and upward of 30 percent are homicides that don’t meet the “active shooter” definition, like episodes of domestic and gang violence. Even unintentional shootings (about 1 percent of the total) outnumber mass shootings.

There are far more effective means to prevent these sadly routine tragedies than by focusing on assault weapons. And that means that it is both wrong and counterproductive for advocacy organizations and elected leaders to use the moments when the public is focused on gun control to push an assault weapons ban.

He reassures his audience that he personally would be fine with an AWB, then continues:

But the fact is that if one were to objectively list solutions based purely on how much they would lower the number of gun deaths in our country, an assault weapons ban would not be high on the list.

When an assault weapons ban is debated, the conversation inevitably becomes a technical and confusing one. While there is no standard definition of an “assault weapon,” much of the focus in the wake of mass shootings is on semiautomatic AR-15-style rifles. Yet most mass shootings, like most gun fatalities in this country, are committed with handguns.

No kidding.

The most meaningful way to deal with the problem, though, is not to look at how to keep certain guns from all people, but how to keep all guns from certain people — the people almost all of us agree should not have guns.

I have spent the past two years building relationships with leaders in the gun rights community, and have found that this framing leads us to common ground. And it points to five specific moves that together would have an enormous impact:

• Vigorously pursue and prosecute the small percentage of gun dealers who are knowingly contributing to the illegal gun trade (a trade that is disproportionately hurting communities of color).

• Identify opportunities to strengthen the background check system by adding prohibited purchasers that we all, including 90 percent of gun owners, agree should not have guns. For instance, federal rules governing privacy for health records could be modified to allow mental health clinicians to identify those who are a threat to themselves or others, so that they could be temporarily added to the National Instant Check System. This would have to include exemptions for private sales that may make some gun control supporters uncomfortable; but in the end, in combination with the other measures listed here, it would result in a significant improvement to public safety.

• Invest in a large-scale education and awareness campaign on the dangers of owning and carrying guns, and what can be done to mitigate those dangers. It is crucial that these efforts be led in partnership with gun rights groups and public health experts and that they remain free from any judgment about gun ownership or connection with political advocacy. There are many initiatives already, such as public education about the warning signs of mental illness and suicide, which have proved effective and could be models.

• Expand on the work of “violence interrupters” and similar programs proved to reduce gun violence in cities.

• Clearly define what it means to be a federally licensed firearm dealer, with standards that include sales volume. For years, gun control groups have talked about closing the “gun show loophole.” The real problem is not specifically gun shows but people who are regularly selling multiple guns to strangers, regardless of the venue, without being required to conduct the same background check that a federally licensed dealer must. Not only does this clearly contribute to straw-man purchasing and gun trafficking; it also puts honest dealers at a competitive disadvantage.

That laundry list does not terrify me. Points one and five seem to involve stricter enforcement of current laws.

Strengthening the background check system always sounds good (Don't just 'modify' it, "strengthen" it!). Obviously, rules and an appeal process are required; we don't want this to end up like the mysterious 'no-fly' list. I'd guess some sort of judicial oversight would be appropriate to turn a mental health professional's concerns into a court order.

A public education will be a nightmare to work out that satisfies both sides. Probably not possible, actually, given the current and ongoing fury of the culture wars.

And urban interventions, such as 'violence interrupters', should be happening anyway,as big city mayors try something other than defunding the police.

Now, do let me add: my theory as to the impetus for an assault weapons ban suggests his approach, however sensible, doesn't address the underlying psychology of the mass shooting hysteria.

He correctly notes that 60% of gun violence is suicide and 30% is somewhat predictable - abusive domestic partner or gang-adjacent lifestyle (member, customer, live in high-crime neighborhood.)

suburban moms (and dads!) have a pretty clear idea of their domestic violence risk and are in the suburbs in part to avoid urban violence. Bolt From The Blue school shootings freak them out in a way that Chicago gang violence does not. Only one is on the doorstep. Urban violence is someone else's worry and frankly, right now there aren't a lot of votes to expand stop and frisk and Incarceration Nation.

Urban gang-bangers are not shooting it out in suburban malls and schools. People are worried about the danger they might experience, not the one that they only read about as happening in a place they'll never be.

A Fateful Moment

It was Sunday afternoon at The Masters in 2016 that the earth wobbled in its space-time continuum, Jordan Spieth blew up, and a Year of Weirdness began. This may not be in order but subsequent surprises included the Leicester City Foxes (5,000-1 at the start of the season) winning the English Premier League; the LeBron's overcoming a 3-1 deficit to beat the mighty Warriors; Brexit; the Cubbies winning their first World Series in a century in extra innings of the seventh game (and after a rain delay); Trump; Tom Brady coming back from 28-3 in the Super Bowl; and the Academy Awards announcing the wrong "Best Picture" winner.

OK, some of that was kind of fun, but here's hoping Hideki Matsuyama can hold on.

We've Seen Worse

Per Gallup:

Quarterly Gap in Party Affiliation Largest Since 2012

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In Gallup polling throughout the first quarter of 2021, an average of 49% of U.S. adults identified with the Democratic Party or said they are independents who lean toward the Democratic Party. That compares with 40% who identified as Republicans or Republican leaners. The nine-percentage-point Democratic advantage is the largest Gallup has measured since the fourth quarter of 2012. In recent years, Democratic advantages have typically been between four and six percentage points.

The gap has been wider in this millennium but this time does seem different, since the Republican Party is so clearly divided and adrift.

 

 

Oh, well. Negative partisanship is likely to bail out the Reps, unless Biden can keep his crazies under control.

The DeSantis Freight Train

FL Gov. DeSantis is neither the Second Coming nor the Anti-Christ, but he'll be depicted as both in the run up to 2024.

Trump, Ripping Off His Own Donors To Own The Libs?

I believe this unbelievable NY Times story about Trump fleecing his donors.

How Trump Steered Supporters Into Unwitting Donations

Online donors were guided into weekly recurring contributions. Demands for refunds spiked. Complaints to banks and credit card companies soared. But the money helped keep Donald Trump’s struggling campaign afloat.

The gist: website donors were met with a page that had two default options pre-checked: one box doubled the intended donation, the other made the intended donation a weekly event. Only the wary and diligent who unchecked both boxes avoided giving  lot more than intended.

Both the Biden and Trump campaigns had to refund some contributions, but...

The sheer magnitude of the money involved is staggering for politics. In the final two and a half months of 2020, the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee and their shared accounts issued more than 530,000 refunds worth $64.3 million to online donors. All campaigns make refunds for various reasons, including to people who give more than the legal limit. But the sum the Trump operation refunded dwarfed that of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s campaign and his equivalent Democratic committees, which made 37,000 online refunds totaling $5.6 million in that time.

Or, in pictures:

 

The Times does not explain how this got around the legal contribution limits problem. There was a buried hint (above) that they just took excessive donations now with the expectation of sorting it out later:

All campaigns make refunds for various reasons, including to people who give more than the legal limit.

There is also a suggestion that the 'Stop The Steal' fundraising was used to pay down the pre-election Ponzi scheme.

The recurring donations swelled Mr. Trump’s treasury in September and October, just as his finances were deteriorating. He was then able to use tens of millions of dollars he raised after the election, under the guise of fighting his unfounded fraud claims, to help cover the refunds he owed.

Well. Is this survivable? I haven't been right about Trump since 2016, but this seems as if it ought to be out of bounds for anybody.

What Matt Wants, Matt Gaetz?!?

Oh, great, a tawdry sex scandal. What happened to Make Scandals Great Again?

Investigators believe Joel Greenberg, the former tax collector in Seminole County, Fla., who was indicted last year on a federal sex trafficking charge and other crimes, initially met the women through websites that connect people who go on dates in exchange for gifts, fine dining, travel and allowances, according to three people with knowledge of the encounters. Mr. Greenberg introduced the women to Mr. Gaetz, who also had sex with them, the people said.

...

Mr. Gaetz denied ever paying a woman for sex.

Some of the possible charges seem like a stretch:

It is not illegal to provide adults with free hotel stays, meals and other gifts, but if prosecutors think they can prove that the payments to the women were for sex, they could accuse Mr. Gaetz of trafficking the women under “force, fraud or coercion.” For example, prosecutors have filed trafficking charges against people suspected of providing drugs in exchange for sex because feeding another person’s drug habit could be seen as a form of coercion.

So offering gifts is fine but offering cash is coercive? OK, go with that.

The joker in the deck is this:

The Justice Department inquiry is also examining whether Mr. Gaetz had sex with a 17-year-old girl and whether she received anything of material value, according to four people familiar with the investigation. The sex trafficking count against Mr. Greenberg involved the same girl, according to two people briefed on the investigation.

She's a minor, so Gaetz needs the Epstein Exception here.

I wonder what a Florida jury would make of all this. I have a suspicion that a decent portion of the Florida service economy relies on an equilibrium between fiscally appealing men and physically appealing women. Maybe I'm thinking of Vegas.

AstraZeneca Blues

This may be a death knell for the AZ vaccine, in Europe and the US anyway:

Germany suspends use of AstraZeneca’s Covid shot for the under-60s, dealing another blow to drugmaker

Germany has suspended use of the coronavirus vaccine created by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford in the under-60s, due to renewed concerns over reports of blood clots.

The move comes after the country’s medicines regulator found 31 cases of a rare type of blood clot in a small number of people immunized with the coronavirus vaccine produced by the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker. The suspension is likely to deal yet another blow to its vaccine’s reputation.

It seems like only yesterday the Euro regulators were only allowing the AZ vaccine for the under-65 crowd, saying the data for oldsters was too sparse. But that was late January!

Well. No one will blame these bureaucrats if thousands die of COVID and this action may even prevent a few dozen deaths from a weird clotting disease. Weird the Brits aren't seeing it in there much larger vaccinated population, but do we trust them to tell the truth?

As to the US, AZ is preparing their trial data but has not yet applied for an EUA. As I understand it, the US vaccine supply situation is already in good shape between Pfizer, Moderna and J&J. We bet on a lot of horses, a lot have crossed the line, and we may not need the AZ product (which people won't take anyway.) And Novavax is lurking in the wings!

For the rest of the world, this is a blow. AZ used refrigerator storage, which made distribution easier in less developed countries.

BONUS SPECULATION: My understanding is that if the US approves an EUA for the AZ vaccine they are contractually obliged to deliver (and the US to pay for) 300MM doses. Or that may be a US option to buy, and we could decline.

I suppose we could buy them and donate them to the global organization, COVAX. Or we could quietly suggest to AZ that a US rejection of their EUA is likely, so just hold off.

Whatever Floats Your Boat

Its alive! The Ever Given effort to unblock the Suez Canal had a major breakthrough. But lots of work remains, so reports of its successful re-launch are premature.

Jump Ball!

Big basketball weekend. I've inherited Michigan from my big sister (who also bequeathed me Tom Brady, so, WINNING!).

And the Lady Huskies have the team and the player to put on a show.

Getting Ready For Sleepy Joe

Pres. Biden will have his first press conference at 1:15 ET today. If you enjoy afternoon naps, tune in and see if you doze off before Sleepy Joe does.

Late In The Process, But AstraZeneca Gets Strong Trial Results For Its Vaccine

AZ gets good results in its long-awaited US trial. However, they don't seem to be in a hurry to apply to the FDA for an Emergency Use Authorization and, given vaccine availability in the US, the FDA isn't in a hurry to approve them.

Barring major production setbacks from Moderna, Pfizer and/or Johnson & Johnson, the AZ trial seems to have been for science and show here in the US. Which is fine, since the rest of the world can use the reassurance.

HERE WE GO AGAIN: And now questions have been raised about their data.

Longing For a New Front In The Race Wars

Its very important to progressives that Asian-Americans feel themselves to be threatened by whites. Far too important an agenda item to be left to mere facts and fate.

From a different direction, Slate chatted with a properly progressive prof who was intent on explaining that any notion of Asian-American tension with Blacks is just lazy thinking. Are you remembering Korean-American shopkeeprs standing on their store rooftops during the LA riots? Or Al Sharpton leading protests against Asian-American deli owners in NYC? Don't be lazy!

And if you use that frame, you make it an Asian-Black thing, you’re focusing on the two groups and taking attention away from the larger structures of power in which they’re embedded—not just racial structures, but also capitalism. Think about the relationship between Korean merchants buying a liquor store in Compton, and their Black customers. This is about capitalism, the way it creates divisions between groups and deems certain people disposable.

Slate closes with solid advice from the professor - even if you're getting assaulted by a Black person, remember the real enemy!

But I think it’s important, when looking at violence against Asian Americans, not to lose that context. When Asian Americans understandably feel fear and anger and sorrow about these attacks on our own communities, I think we also have to ask ourselves, Are we fighting for Black lives as hard as we’re fighting for our own? It’s in moments like this that it’s really difficult to remember, because we’re afraid and upset. But to remember that we are advantaged, compared to Black people, is what it takes to be a good ally—even though it can be very hard, at times like these. But I think these are the moments when it’s the most important to do it.

That Went Well

This pre-fight weigh-in had the usual theatrics:

First U.S.-China meeting under Biden gets off to a rocky start

• • The first high-level gathering of U.S. and Chinese officials under President Joe Biden kicked off with an exchange of insults at a pre-meeting press event Thursday, according to NBC News.
  • The two-day talks are set to conclude Friday.
  • A planned four-minute photo session for the officials to address reporters ended up lasting one hour and 15 minutes due to a frothy exchange, according to NBC News