JustOneMinute

Any Day Now!

With all the downed trees and power outages my internet is not what it once was. Or will be again! On Thursday, or my service is sub-Optimum.

Away We Go!

David Brooks will get brutalized AND ignored with this vivisection of the nearly "brain-dead" Republican Party, but I liked it.

Three Billboards Outside Sedalia, Missouri

The NY Times front-pages the story of Hanna Fizer, a young rural white woman shot by a Sheriff's deputy during a traffic stop in South Succotash MO.

The Times acknowledges that enlisting Trump Country in outrage against the police is a tough sell but its nice of them to notice that class, as well as race, may play a role in who gets shot by the police:

Ms. Fizer’s relatives said that a divide in money and class between them and authorities in Pettis County had made them feel like second-rung citizens. Ms. Fizer was not rich, and members of her family had been in and out of prison and struggled with drug addictions.

“If you’re on the outer fringes of society you’d know,” Amy Fizer said. “They pull you over. They do what they want, when they want.”

I have not yet found a study tracking the police use of deadly force with educational attainment as well as race. My strong impression is that a thirty year old white guy in a suit and tie, or business casual, will fare better during a traffic stop than a thirty year old white guy with a denim jacket and neck tattoos.

Since I am just guessing, I'll also guess that in an exhaustive statistical analysis, educational attainment and race would be significant variables. Blacks are probably over-represented in the "non-college grad" group, but over-represented by even more in the "victim of deadly force" group.

My Magic Eight Ball goes dark when asked if White HS grads are at greater or lesser risk than Black college grads. But I'll guess anyway - its still safer to be white.

More details on the traffic stop here.

Blown Away!

So electricity, cable and cell service is all disrupted in most of my town. I can get online intermittently from a secure remote location. The normal sounds of suburbia have been replaced by the roar of generators and chainsaws. First world problems!

Here Comes The Rain Again

Storm warnings! Rain AND wind!

Tammy Duckworth For VP?

Valentine's Day arrives in August as the NY Times goes mad for Sen. Duckworth.

Politically she seems to fall in the center of the Democratic Party. Her personal story of military service and sacrifice gives her natural appeal to folks further to the right. Which inspires my current Mad Hope: Biden taps Duckworth and chases centrists and disaffected Republicans. He win in a rout while progressives pout and his new administration makes a serious (and successful!) effort to work with chastened Republicans.

In that world, we still get "comprehensive" immigration reform as a cram-down. Per Kausian Logic, the amnesty and path to citizenship will be implemented quickly and flawlessly; any faux efforts at border security and workplace enforcement will be tied up in the courts and eventually abandoned. Not Good!

However, Biden ran as a centrist and remembers well the 1994 and 2010 repudiations of a newly elected Dem President. After immigration, if Republicans show some flexibiity, there is an impressive progressive wish-list that Biden might bury:

 - We won't see the filibuster eliminated (Mend It, Don't End It? How about a 55 vote cloture rule? It was 67 when I was a lad!).

 - We won't see the Supreme Court augmented with 2 new justices; consequently, we won't see the critical DC v. Heller gun rights case overturned by a 6-5 vote (after which Dems would have resumed chanting about the importance of respecting precedent as they dug in around Roe v. Wade.)

 - We won't see Washington DC and Puerto Rico granted statehood to ensure four new Democratic senators.

Look, this is not the best of all possible worlds. But the Republican Party has brought this upon itself. Peggy Noonan pounded the table on that point [link]: Trump didn't fall from the sky - his insurgency succeeded because the Republican establishment delivered two belly-flop wars and a housing collapse while mocking the rubes on immigration. Sadly, the Trump experiment has not gone well (IMHO.) So now the Republican Party has no clear message or trusted leaders. Not helpful! But she predicts reform will "bubble up" from the states, and I'll Boldly Predict the 2024 nominee will be famous as a governor, not Senator.

We'll see. This all starts with Biden committing to a centrist strategy and pulling it off. I guess Plan B is a Trump miracle. Biden pandering to and governing like a progressive, with a 2022 public revolt and Republican re-conquest of the House and/or Senate, is Plan C Ya Later.

Biden's VP Pick

Might not be Susan Rice.

Delay The Election?!?

Trump had a baffling tweet suggesting we might need to delay the election until it was safe to vote.

In a calm, measured reaction the head of the Federalist Society said a speculative tweet like this is grounds for immediate impeachment. OK, that's a bit of an over-reaction but it is revealing that a prominent conservative and beneficiary of the Trump/McConnell Judge Confirmation Assembly Line would openly rebel over, well, nothing.

Yuval Levin of National Review takes us through election law. Timing is up to Congress and some tweaks might make sense for 2020 since we will have a surge of mail-in ballots to count:

But there may well be a way for Congress to help the election go more smoothly in those later two parts of the code I just cited above. The problem mail-in voting can create, especially in jurisdictions that aren’t used to so much of it, isn’t about fraud but about delays in counting and verifying results. So what may need to be adjusted is not the date of the election but the Electoral College deadlines that follow it.

I made a case for a reform like this (with Kevin Johnson of the Election Reformers Network) earlier this month in the Washington Post. As things now stand, election day is November 3, states need to finalize their results by December 8 to avoid their being challenged in Congress, and then members of the Electoral College are to meet on December 14. Congress certifies the results on January 6, and the winner is inaugurated January 20. That means that there are 78 days between the election and the inauguration, but states have only 35 of those days to finalize their results. As we’ve seen in some primaries this year, that simply may not be enough time in some contested states.

So rather than changing the election date, Congress should act to push back—just for this year—the date by which states have to finalize results and the date on which the electors meet. Pushing those back by two or three weeks could give contested states a lot more breathing room to deal with the actual challenges involved in mail-in voting while the election, certification, and inauguration would all go on as scheduled.

 

The Year Of Weird

Change we can believe in - in an Eerie Coincidence, the first US commemorative quarter of 2020 came out in February and features - I kid you not - a bat.

 

Too weird. 

 

Biden's VP Pick

Per Politico there is no obvious pick for Biden's as VP. Instead, its the "Yes, but..." list.

Biden's VP shortlist comes up short

Plenty of the contenders are fine or even good. But all of them come with a “but” attached. “There is no one ideal home run choice,” one adviser says.

I find this insightful:

Many Democrats agree that the running mate decision is so personal that it will be made primarily by Biden himself rather than, like some policy issues, a committee of his closest advisers. That has created a parlor game for many Democrats trying to get inside the candidate’s head.

“Put yourself in the mind of Joe Biden,” said one Democratic strategist. “Who is Joe Biden? He spent his entire adult life in the United States Senate. He’s a foreign policy maven. He really takes it seriously. So when he says I need someone on Day One to take over, that specifically means they can deal with China and Russia on Day One. To me, that means it’s not going to be a mayor. And maybe not even a governor. He has a bias towards senators. But it also has to be next generation. So not Warren, who is 71. She performed significantly under expectations. That would lead you to two senators: Kamala Harris and Tammy Duckworth. Who else meets that mold? Susan Rice: ready on Day One for Russia and China.”

Finding a VP who will back Biden, not start running for the 2024 nomination immediately, will also be a problem.

From another perspective, put yourself in the shoes of Biden's longtime Inner Circle of advisers. An experienced Washington hand will be a rival power center; a charismatic unknown may help boost the ticket in a swing state but will not have the independent power of a Dick Cheney.

Can an unknown be ready from Day One? I like Congressperson Val Demings, former Orlando police chief. Key swing state, Law and Order cred. Sen. Tammy Duckworth may look more prepared to stare down the Russkies. She's a Woman of Color, although Thai not Black,so that may be a problem.

 

 

A Win For Trump!

A Federal judge denies an injunction that would have modified Federal policing in Portland:

Oregon Loses Request for Injunction Against Federal Agents in Portland

Judge says state’s attorney general presented no evidence that allegedly illegal seizures by federal agents have happened frequently during protests

By Deanna Paul and Alejandro Lazo     Updated July 24, 2020

A federal judge Friday denied a temporary injunction sought by Oregon’s top law-enforcement officer, handing the Trump administration a victory in a legal battle over its deployment of federal agents to Portland.

Oregon Attorney General Ellen Rosenblum filed the lawsuit last week, asking the court to require agents to identify themselves, their agency and reasons for a stop before taking anyone from the streets without probable cause.

In a 14-page order, U.S. District Judge Michael W. Mosman ruled that the state lacked legal standing to bring the suit and had “presented no evidence that these allegedly illegal seizures are a widespread practice.”

“Despite the broad language in the complaint, Oregon has shown—at most—that this type of seizure has happened twice,” Judge Mosman wrote.

Earlier Friday, the Justice Department announced charges against 18 people in Portland for federal crimes allegedly committed during protests that have grown in size and drawn national attention during the past week.

The charges, all of which involve alleged crimes that took place at a federal courthouse, include assaulting federal officers, trespassing on and damaging federal property and arson, Billy J. Williams, U.S. attorney for the District of Oregon, said in a statement Friday.

Protesters have been out on the streets of Portland every day since shortly after the death of George Floyd, who was killed on Memorial Day while he was in the custody of Minneapolis police. Largely peaceful demonstrations sometimes ended in violence and property damage at night, prompting the White House to send federal agents to Portland on July 1 with a mission to protect federal property.

“Protests in downtown Portland have been followed by nightly criminal activity,” Mr. Williams said, adding that the Mark O. Hatfield U.S. Courthouse had been a “target of vandalism during evening protests and riots, sustaining extensive damage.”

Well. Nice to see a judge take Trump's side.

Neverending Nightmare

Dr. Fauci might want to work on his bedside manner:

Fauci: COVID-19 is "almost your worst nightmare"

Oy. Can we go back to being told that one day it will just disappear, as if by magic?

His rationale:

"It's the perfect storm," Fauci says. "We often talk about outbreaks and pandemics, be they influenza or other pathogens, that have to have a few characteristics that make them particularly formidable. Well, this particular virus has that."

• For a public health official, this is "almost your worst nightmare," Fauci adds.
• He points out that SARS-CoV-2 jumps species, is a new pathogen with no known innate human immunity, and is a respiratory-borne virus that is "spectacularly efficient" at spreading from human to human and has a "substantial degree of morbidity and mortality, particularly in certain populations of people."

Plus, "the spectrum of involvement with the same pathogen is very unique," Fauci says.

• "I've never seen an infection in which you have such a broad range — of literally nothing, namely no symptoms at all, in a substantial proportion of the population; to some who get ill with minor symptoms; to some who get ill enough to be in bed for weeks and have post-viral syndromes; [to] others [who] get hospitalized, require oxygen, intensive care, ventilation and death."

The broad range of symptoms, from "none" to prolonged shortness of breath and then death, is weird. But my worst nightmare would include a bug like the Spanish flu of 1918/19, which had a special affinity for working-age people.

Not to be cold, but COVID is providing a bit of relief to Social Security and Medicare on the liability side (the absence of payroll and hence, payroll taxes, is a bit of a negative. Just a speedbump!). The Spanish flu would have buried them.

Who Is That Masked Man? (Ongoing...)

At a Tuesday press briefing Trump warned that COVID would probably get worse before it got better and that we should Mask Up!

These would have been more helpful messages in March. Or April. Or May. Or June. But welcome to the party!

Bah. Trump's polls must be dreadful and now I am fuming about this latest example of regulatory capture:

Climate Change Poses ‘Systemic Threat’ to the Economy, Big Investors Warn

Financial regulators should act to avoid economic disaster, according to a letter from pension funds and other investors representing almost $1 trillion in assets.

Oh, groan. This is classic 'death by a thousand cuts'. Generally, big companies favor ever-more regulation to choke out any smaller emerging competitors, who can't spread compliance costs over as broad a base.

In this case, the new regs are being proposed by steely-eyed investors:

WASHINGTON — Climate change threatens to create turmoil in the financial markets, and the Federal Reserve and other regulators must act to avoid an economic disaster, according to a letter sent on Tuesday by a group of large investors.

“The climate crisis poses a systemic threat to financial markets and the real economy, with significant disruptive consequences on asset valuations and our nation’s economic stability,” reads the letter, which was signed by more than three dozen pension plans, fund managers and other financial institutions that together manage almost $1 trillion in assets.

That financial threat, combined with the physical risks posed by climate change, may create “disastrous impacts the likes of which we haven’t seen before,” the letter says. It urges the Fed, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other agencies to “explicitly integrate climate change across your mandates.”

Investors worry that if regulators do not act, climate change may cause the price of some companies to fall suddenly, the effects of which may ricochet through the economy. Providing more information about that risk — for example, by requiring companies to disclose more about their greenhouse gas emissions, or which of their facilities are at risk from rising seas — could help investors make better decisions.

Oh, brother. More mandated disclosure can also help trial lawyers file more silly class-action suits. Who is pushing this again?

The letter was signed by some of the largest pension funds in the country, including the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, or CalSTRS, which manages $246 billion; the New York City Comptroller’s Office, which oversees pension funds worth $206 billion; and the New York State Comptroller’s Office, which manages the state’s $211 billion retirement fund.

Uh huh, NY and California? I don't think politics has anything ta all to do with this. Next week we can read virtually the same letter. Replace "climate change" with "social justice", change the risks to include protests, riots and consumer boycotts, et voila - we need more disclosure on what companies are doing to advance racial and gender equality.

This is baffling, if you make the mistake of thinking this is any sort of good faith proposal:

Liz Gordon, executive director of corporate governance for New York State’s fund, said that even large institutional investors with skilled researchers could not protect their holdings against climate risk. “We do a lot of engagement with companies individually,” Ms. Gordon said. “But that’s not going to solve the broader problem.”

She said the S.E.C., which regulates the stock market and requires publicly traded companies to regularly disclose information about a range of perils they face, should also require those companies to better disclose the financial risks they confront from climate change.

Not going to solve what problem? It reads as if the huge NY State fund can chat with companies all day to get the info they want. I am highly confident that if a large lender - eg, JP Morgan Chase - is curious about these risks the company will be forthcoming.

This is just yet another way to push the climate change agenda without the tedium of new laws that can't be passed. The Times is kind enough to explain this:

“Every medium and large business has bank loans and has insurance,” said Steven Rothstein, managing director of the Ceres Accelerator for Sustainable Capital Markets, a group that works with investors and which organized the letter.

The letter calls on regulators to adopt the steps Ceres outlined last month in a report that makes 51 recommendations to eight federal agencies. At its core are two demands: that the agencies treat climate change as a systemic risk, and that the S.E.C. ensures mandatory and consistent disclosure of climate threats facing companies.

According to Ceres, regulators can adopt each of its recommendations without new legislation from Congress. Still, during the Trump administration, even agencies that are meant to have a degree of independence from the White House have been reluctant to address climate change. President Trump has called global warming a hoax, and he has reversed nearly 70 environmental rules, with another 30 in progress.

Nevertheless, Ceres’s recommendations offer a blueprint for how a Democratic administration might begin to tackle climate change, should former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. win the presidency in November. Last month, Democrats on the House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis released a report that echoed some of the recommendations from Ceres, particularly ones regarding the disclosure of financial risks.

The letter on Tuesday suggests that those recommendations have significant support among investors as well.

So in essence, under Team Biden climate activists will promote a thousand new regs to tie up business. This is the sort of thing the corporatist/statist Democrats like Hillary and Sleepy Joe live for. Its why they are so keen to see the Clinton Restoration - every business will need a friend in the BidenWorld and their will be plenty of lobbyists ready to help.

Hillary did a great job of monetizing this directly - if you wanted access to a Senator/SecState, write a check to Bill. Biden has done a decent job of securing lucrative lifetime employment for his deadweight son. This is not a great time for Trump to be losing an election over a failed COVID response.

But justice! Sorry, I'm ahead of myself - but climate!

Away We Go

It feels like 100 degrees out there and baseball opening day is coming soon!