JustOneMinute

Let Sleeping Dogs Lie

Will there be a brawl to replace Breyer? IMHO, Democrats would welcome one. A chance to thrill their base AND deliver a win? Easy call.

On the Republican side obviously they can't pass on a fundraising opportunity. But they already have plenty of topics to excite their side and the Supreme Court will be delivering more (eg, on abortion and gun control) this year. No need to escalate a fight they will probably lose.

UPDATE: Great minds run in the same channel. Or at least, I hopeso, since Jim Geraghty is a great mind.

Let's Go TB12

OK, here in the 3rd quarter the LA Rams have just kicked an extra point to go up 27-3 over the Tampa Bay Bradys.

If the Rams had any respect for the game they have gone for the 2 point conversion. Then Brady could deliver 28-3 II and the Hollywood ending fans (like me!) would be thrilled.

I Believe It Is Chaos For Our Time

Joe Biden, self-styling as a seasoned foreign policy hand, steps in it and then wallows in it with comments and 'clarifications' on Putin and the Ukraine. The Times is clearly making a heroic effort to avoid panic:

Biden Predicts Putin Will Order Ukraine Invasion, but ‘Will Regret Having Done It’

President Biden’s comments went well beyond the formal intelligence assessments described by White House officials, which conclude that Russia’s president has not yet decided whether to invade.

Biden is so off-script its ludicrous.

WASHINGTON — President Biden said on Wednesday that he now expected President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would order an invasion of Ukraine, delivering a grim assessment that the diplomacy and threat of sanctions issued by the United States and its European allies were unlikely to stop the Russian leader from sending troops across the border.

“Do I think he’ll test the West, test the United States and NATO, as significantly as he can? Yes, I think he will,” Mr. Biden told reporters during a nearly two-hour news conference in the East Room of the White House. He added, almost with an air of fatalism: “But I think he will pay a serious and dear price for it that he doesn’t think now will cost him what it’s going to cost him. And I think he will regret having done it.”

Asked to clarify whether he was accepting that an invasion was coming, Mr. Biden said: “My guess is he will move in. He has to do something.”

The president later acknowledged that Mr. Putin’s move might not amount to a full-scale invasion of the country.

Yeah, that clarification went well. So well the Times chose to bury the specific quote, although they present criticisms of it. This is CNN:

"It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do..."

AHHH! State Dept. and White House telephone lines have been burning up since then:

Biden Strengthens His Words on Ukraine After Flustering European Partners

After the president laid bare divisions over Russian meddling in Ukraine, his administration scrambled to get on the same page with European allies.

Clown show. 

Say It Ain't So, Joe

This is the week the wheels fell off for Joe Biden. Peggy Noonan's recap of his disastrous Atlanta speech marks just one of Biden's bellyflops.

Democrats are hoping for a reset but its hard to see White House roster moves or policy pivots that will help until Team Biden grasps the fact that pandering to Left Twitter isn't the same as trying to unite the country.

Peggy Noonan reprises many McConnell quotes. For a few more zingers, here is Ben Sasse from the Senate floor.

This passage follows his introduction, in which Sasse notes he defended the filibuster when Trump wanted it further modified (my emphasis):

Today, I rise to defend the filibuster again when it's the president of the other party who's decided to go full demagogue. For his entire career in the Senate, basically, Joe Biden served in this body as long as I've been alive, plus or minus a few years. Joe Biden was a stalwart defender of the filibuster. He said that weakening the filibuster would, "eviscerate the Senate." But earlier this week, the President was pushed around by a bunch of rage-addicted 20-somethings on his staff and agreed to go down to Georgia and just read whatever nonsense they loaded into his teleprompter. It was shameful. It was sad. The President of the United States called half of the country a bunch of racist bigots. Think about that. Half the country, a bunch of racist bigots. He doesn't believe that. This was a senile comment of a man who read whatever was loaded into his teleprompter. His speechwriters puppet-mastered him into saying that anyone who disagrees with him is George Wallace. Bull Connor. Jefferson Davis. You disagree with Joe Biden and you're Jefferson Davis. Pretty breathtaking. 

Harsh yet fair.

Trump v. DeSantis

Who is this guy and what have they done with Trump?

Trump Rips ‘Gutless’ Politicians Who Won’t Say If They’ve Had Vaccine Booster: ‘Say It’

OK, his eye is on likely 2024 Presidential candidate DeSantis. But courage, Ron - that O'Reilly crowd wasn't booing Trump; they were yelling "Boooost!".

A Lot Happening

Joe Biden wants to modify the filibuster so Dems can pass democracy-saving legislation without Republican support. Joe Manchin may not be on board, so we wait.

Donald Trump and his "Stop The Steal" enablers have not been worthy stewards of the voting process, so I can see why Dems might not trust the Reps on this one. And it doesn't seem like The Donald will be moving on from his 2020 delusions, although there are hopeful signs that other Republicans have.

A Great Story

What will be the top "feel-good" stories of 2022? Nadia Popovic broke strong from the gate with this one:

Kraken fan Nadia Popovici lauded for pointing out Canucks equipment manager Brian Hamilton’s cancerous mole during game

Nadia Popovici hadn’t woken up yet when what she had done to save a life was going viral on hockey Twitter.

A 2019 University of Washington graduate about to go to medical school, she worked at a crisis hotline overnight on New Year’s Eve. It was a shock to find out upon waking she had become a story.

“I woke up with my mom’s phone call and she was like, ‘Nadia, you have no idea what’s going on,'” she said. “She sent me the statement the (Canucks) put out, and it said they were looking for me. There was a lot of screaming. I couldn’t believe it.”

Popovici, who goes to Kraken games with her stepfather’s season tickets, was the subject of a search from Canucks assistant equipment manager Brian “Red” Hamilton, who said Saturday morning via a Twitter statement from the team Popovici had saved his life.

When the Canucks were at Climate Pledge Arena on Oct. 23, the Kraken’s home opener, Popovici — sitting behind the Canucks bench — typed a message out on her phone, knocked on the plexiglass and got Hamilton’s attention. “The mole on the back of your neck is cancer,” the message read.

Hamilton got medical treatment and eventually went on Twitter to find and thank her (so much for searching by way of glass slippers...).

Wild.

 

Happy New Year!

Happy New Year! Will 2022 be the disappointing finish to a grim trilogy, or do we get a redemptive Big Finish?

I read somewhere the CDC has recommended we throw the Ring into Mt. Doom. Might help! But the day may come when the CDC recommends we all just pipe down and take the blue pill. Tempting!

Shorter Quarantines

The CDC had modified their COVID quarantine recommendations:

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. health officials on Monday cut isolation restrictions for asymptomatic Americans who catch the coronavirus from 10 to five days, and similarly shortened the time that close contacts need to quarantine.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said the guidance is in keeping with growing evidence that people with the coronavirus are most infectious in the two days before and three days after symptoms develop.

The decision also was driven by a recent surge in COVID-19 cases, propelled by the omicron variant.

Some of this reflects staffuing issues - can't keep essetial workers at home for too long.

 

 

Happy Holidays!

Merry Christmas all! I just want to share my Christmas Earworm: the late, great Jim Croce's "I Got A Name", specifically

"Like the pine trees linin' the windin' road
I've got a name, I've got a name..."

Pine tress typically have names? Who names their pine trees? And what is the name of the one in my living room - Jeweled? What is Croce's real name - homo sapiens?

So many questions. Whatev.

And please remember the Holiday message during this OMGicron season - think positive and test negative! 

Omicron Studies Arrive

Good-ish news from South Africa, Scotland and the Imperial College all suggest that Omicron cases will be more widespread but milder than Delta.

This means Omicron may still swamp our hospitals. If, for example, we have three times as many cases but only half as many end up in the hospital, well, that is still more people filling hospitals.

The studies attempt to adjust for vaccination status and protection induced by prior infection. The 'prior infection' estimate in South Africa is so uncertain (and the country so different from the US) that their conclusion may not mean much here.

The omicron Covid variant is less likely to result in hospitalization than earlier strains and appears to be milder in comparison, according to early data released this week.

Data from South Africa, England and Scotland indicate that people infected with omicron are significantly less likely to be admitted to hospital than if they contract other strains, and the latter study further emphasized the importance of getting a booster shot .

The Imperial College study is their Report 50. It moves past their recent Report 49, which found no evidence that Omicron was milder than Delta.

OMGicron!

OK, we knew it was spreading but c'mon, man:

Omicron now the dominant U.S. Covid strain at 73% of cases, CDC data shows

Omicron is so Twenty Twenty-New; Delta is so Twenty Twenty-Done.

The rapidly spreading omicron variant is now the dominant Covid strain in the U.S., representing 73% of sequenced cases, according to data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Omicron has displaced the previously dominant delta variant, which the CDC says is now an estimated 26.6% of sequenced cases for the week ending December 18. Just one week earlier, delta made up 87% of cases to omicron’s 12.6%, the data shows.

The CDC also has cool graphics showing Omicron's emergence over time and current geographic spread.

 

I want to dig up their depiction of The Ascent of Delta last summer.

Here is the current Omicron spread:

 

And let's close with some thoughts from Clint Eastwood, Frontier Doctor, when asked about how transmissible Omicron is.

I CAN QUIT ANYTIME: The vaccine-hesitant Gene Hackman bemoans his choices.

Pre-Christmas Cheer

Omicron is here. NO, its not the Evil Organization in the latest Bond film. Its the COVID variant setting case records in several coutries, with others soon to follow. (New York City records are subject to the caveat that testing was spotty during their crushing wave in spring 2020.) Clint Eastwood, Frontier Doctor assessed the outlook.

Fortunately, 'cases' is not a great metric here - Omicron has a flair for infecting those even with some COVID immunity due to vaccines or past infection. That generally results in less severe cases. That also means that in order to assess whether omicron is less dangerous than delta researchers need to track vaccine and past infection status. Since Omicron is giving mild cases to vaccinated/formerly infected people who might have fought off a Delta exposure, mild cases may be over-represented in the Omicron mix.

Well. Hospitals in the Midwest and Northeast were already straining. Want some sound medical advice? Don't be in a car accident in January. Or have a heart attack.

More sound advice? DO get vaccinated or boosted. It might help lighten the burden on our health system. And for we old-timers, Dr. Eastood had other timeless advice - dying is no way to make a living. Nor is it a way to Own The Libs. Getting vaccinated is good advice even if it comes from Biden. Or Trump.

Real Men of Genius

Per the NY Times, Biden's advisers want him to continue talking up our robust economy, even though polls show lots of people aren't feeling it.

Out-of-touch and confused - yeah, that's the ticket!

How’s the Economy? Biden Sees a Boom. Many Americans Don’t.

The president has struggled to sell strong growth and job gains to a public that appears more concerned about rising prices — and remains anxious about Covid.

By Jim Tankersly

WASHINGTON — President Biden and his top aides are struggling to bridge the gap between the economy they want to celebrate and the one that has left many Americans anxious and frustrated, as a record-setting recovery collides with prolonged inflation and an ongoing pandemic that has left consumers deeply pessimistic.

The challenge begins with a disbelief of sorts among Mr. Biden’s economic advisers. They insist the job market, with a 4.2 percent unemployment rate, has never been better, delivering wage gains for lower-paid workers that Mr. Biden believes will help lift more people into the middle class. They say those benefits will endure for years, even once inflation, which last -month accelerated at its fastest pace in 40 years, cools down.

The struggle is also entwined with Mr. Biden’s fight against Covid. Administration officials say that the anxiety voters are expressing to pollsters is less about the economy and the president’s handling of it and more an expression of pent-up frustration with a pandemic that has persisted for nearly two years.

White House officials say they have no plans to shift Mr. Biden’s messaging on economic issues, even as poll after poll shows his approval ratings in decline and voter worry over inflation swamping all other views of the economy. Their strategy remains focused on stressing the administration’s work to spread vaccinations and end the pandemic without further lockdowns, cheering the nation’s progress in economic growth and promising that Mr. Biden’s policies will bring down prices for oil, food and consumer goods.

Eventually reality will catch up to one side or the other.