JustOneMinute

On Past Wisconsin

The Magical Mystery Kraken Tour will be released from Wisconsin - the Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected Trump's various legal claims. And the fraud allegations? Given a chance to present evidence, Team Trump agreed to a very tame stipulation and chose to bet on their legal arguments about rule changes.

Are You Ready For Some Football?!?

Sunday is here!

Vaccine Yes, Texas No

Two studies in foregone conclusions came to an end on Friday evening.

The FDA approved the Pfizer vaccine. Let's roll up those sleeves!

And the Supreme Court tossed the Texas/Paxton suit. IMHO, the big suspense around the Supreme Court decision was whether the Justices would deliver a scathing 9-0 decision or just say "LOL No" and add a frowny face emoji. Frowny face it is! Obviously, others had higher hopes, and maybe Texas AG Paxton will get his pardon. 

They Like It!

The FDA advisory panel pondered the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine and recommended an Emergency Use Authorization by a 17-4 vote.

I'd be curious to know what prompted four No votes. since this vaccine looks to be safe and effective in what is clearly an emergency situation. Let's roll up those sleeves!

UPDATE: One of the four "No" votes explains:

Dr. Archana Chatterjee, a member of the FDA advisory panel who voted against recommending Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use, told CNBC on Friday that her opposition was because she did not believe 16- and 17-year-olds should be included right now.

In a “Squawk Box” interview, Chatterjee said she would have voted “yes” had the question before her been different. “I want to be very clear that I am fully supportive of the emergency use authorization for the use of this vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech for adults 18 years and older,” said Chatterjee, a pediatric infectious disease specialist who serves as dean of the Chicago Medical School.

The FDA committee recommended emergency authorization of the vaccine for people who are 16 years old and older.

Well. She knew she didn't have a deciding vote but c'mon, man - "Emergency!" has meaning.

The "Big One" - A Disgrace From Texas

Trump declares it to be "The Big One"! Here is the controversial Supreme Court filing with the ludicrous statistical analysis included. A sampling:

Chances of Biden winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Wisconsin independently after [Trump's]

early lead is less than one in a quadrillion:

 

Uh huh. So basically, a Biden comeback was less likely than an asteroid strike even though plenty of folks had warned about Blue Mirages and Red Mirages before Election night. Everybody, with the apparent exception of this analyst (Prof. Cicchetti) understood that in most states Democrats were the bigger users of absentee ballots. Consequently, in the states that counted absentee ballots as they came in before the election, Biden would stat election night with a big lead into which Trump would gnaw as the night wore on. In states that set absentee ballots aside and counted them after the polls were closed, that would reverse - an early Trump lead would shrink and maybe reverse.

 

The "one in a quadrillion" analysis rests on the premise that the late-counted absentee votes were drawn from the same pool as the initial votes. If Trump got 52% of the first 90% of votes but then got less than 32% of the remainder, he'd lose. Unlikely? INCREDIBLY unlikely IF all the votes are coming from the same pool. HIGHLY likely if the late votes were widely understood to be from a county or process (eg, absentee) that tilted to Biden.

 

As a bonus contribution to our understanding of politics the professor explained that Biden backers of 2020 were behaving the same as Hillary backer in 2016. If you think an election is simply a random draw from the same people with the same partisan tilt from one election to the next, this is an incredibly unlikely result (Hmm, campaigns - how do they work?). In reality, what is incredibly unlikely is that the Supreme Court will even begin to take this seriously. NO, they have not taken up the case yet.

 

Lest you doubt, a snippet.

 

 

 

This filing is a disgrace. The state AGs hopping on board know this is a loser but they evidently see personal political upside in staying on the same page with Trump and his ardent followers.

Stone Cold Lloyd Austin

General Austin is an American hero and a solid pick for Defense Secretary. Especially when the leading alternative was a woman (undoubtedly polished and brilliant) who has made a career fighting through the swamps and trenches of academia, think tanks, and the Pentagon bureaucracy.

Austin and Biden overlapped in Iraq in 2010-2011 when Biden was leading the US effort down the drain. But they also overlapped when Austin began leading the pushback against ISIS, so there's that.

Nuke The President!

The State Dept has concluded, in a no-longer-secret report, that some of our diplomats abroad were nuked:

WASHINGTON — The most probable cause of a series of mysterious afflictions that sickened American spies and diplomats abroad in the past several years was radiofrequency energy, a type of radiation that includes microwaves, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has concluded in a report.

The conclusion by a committee of 19 experts in medicine and other fields cited “directed, pulsed radiofrequency energy” as “the most plausible mechanism” to explain the illness, which came to be known as Havana syndrome, though they said that they could not rule out other possible causes and that secondary factors may have contributed to symptoms, according to a copy of the report obtained by The New York Times.

I assume the Secret Service freaked out about this long ago but still - what is the likely size/range of the weapon and what is a dangerous exposure time? Getting the President disoriented (OK, even more disoriented, either this guy of the next) would be a BFD. What does it mean for Presidential travel? If he's appearing at a NY fundraiser, does the venue need to be radiation-proofed?

Along with The Beast, the Secret Service needs a Presidential Faraday cage. Or the President could wear a helmet, like Magneto.

From "See You In Court" To "See You Later, Alligator"

Team Trump had a tough day Friday.

Donald Trump’s brutal day in court

Several of the most devastating opinions, both Friday and in recent weeks, have come from conservative judges and, in some federal cases, Trump appointees.

President Donald Trump and his legal allies earned a platinum sombrero Friday, striking out five times in a matter of hours in states pivotal to the president’s push to overturn the election results — and losing a sixth in Minnesota for good measure.

It was another harsh milestone in a monthlong run of legal futility, accompanied by sharp rebukes from county, state and federal judges who continue to express shock at the Trump team’s effort to simply scrap the results of an election he lost. Several of the most devastating opinions, both Friday and in recent weeks, have come from conservative judges and, in some federal cases, Trump appointees.

I get that plenty of conservative judges, even Trump appointees, rose through the system with the support of the Republican Establishment and probably are not Trump loyalists. But law is law - partisanship notwithstanding, at some point, if even maybe-allies aren't taking your side, that may be a clue to take a hint.

Somethings Happening!

I keep having lost days, and I'm not even drinking. Maybe I should start!

Katie, Barr The Election!

AG Barr was a bit of a wet blanket for the election conspiracists out there.

Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud

Barr wants Sidney Powell to get crackin':

Barr didn’t name Powell specifically but said: “There’s been one assertion that would be systemic fraud and that would be the claim that machines were programmed essentially to skew the election results. And the DHS and DOJ have looked into that, and so far, we haven’t seen anything to substantiate that.”

In the campaign statement, Giuliani claimed there was “ample evidence of illegal voting in at least six states, which they have not examined.”

I believe it has been reported that the DoJ will continue to look high and low. Barr certainly implied that by saying they have found no evidence of widespread fraud "to date".

Giving Durham special counsel status is the buried lede. Makes it a bit harder for Team Biden to deep-six the whole thing.

Marc Rich Redux

From CNN:

Justice Department investigating potential presidential pardon bribery scheme, court records reveal

Marc Rich clearly bought a pardon from Bill Clinton but the investigation led nowhere.

Why Waste Your Time Voting?

The brilliant messaging team in the White House is now wondering about Georgia and the impact of "Stop the Steal" on Republican turnout.

In my opinion, these races should be easy. The Democrats wanted to Stop Trump and they won their war; time for them to go home. Republicans, on the other hand, wanted to support Trump but also Stop the Crazy Left. Mission Unaccomplished! OK, almost - Manchin of W VA does not rely on progressive support and has indicated he won't be backing a kooky agenda. Still, why should Reps leave the door ajar? Go Mitch 2020!

Sunday Afternoon Action

The Tampa Bay Bradys are doing nothing against Kansas City. Currently trail 17-0.

Kick Like A Girl

Finally, COVID delivers a feel-good moment for 2020 as Vanderbilt football becomes Must-See TV (SportsCenter highlights subdivision): Due to illness among their specialists, the Vandy football team will suit up Sarah Fuller, the goalie for their national championship women's soccer team. Go, girl!