JustOneMinute

You Can't Make This Stuff Up. Unless You Do.

Jason Leopold, now performing at Buzzfeed, had Trump in handcuffs, with a story that garnered huge attention and sparked a denial from Mueller.

Those with hearts of stone will remember Jason Leopold from his days as a "Rove to be indicted" fantasist back in May 2006. Yeah, it all went to hell for Leopold and the only detail I remember was their changing of Rove's imminent arrest from "24 hours" to "24 business hours". I've never seen that term before or since, but it was a fun marker in the "Is there anything a hopeless partisan won't believe?" debate.

I actually have a laughably simple explanation for how we arrived at this train wreck that does not involve wilful lying by anyone. Suppose Cohen imagined the ongoing Moscow project as a big payday for himself and was Keeping Hope Alive while Trump, who had been chasing this for decades, had mentally written it off.

Then, somewhere in the course of a two hour meeting on other things, or during an elevator ride, Cohen gets two minutes on Moscow, which Trump tunes out.

Now, months later, Cohen has to testify to Congress. He has a clear memory of discussing Moscow with Trump, so he asks Trump what he should say. Trump has a clear non-memory (if that is even possible) of the topic being raised, so he instructs Cohen to say it was never discussed after January.

Trump is sincere but wrong-ish. Is it a "discussion" if he is not listening and gives utterly distracted answers such as "Yeah, yeah, sounds great"? Is there other evidence of his engagement, such as emails he clearly wrote or approved?. However, Cohen sincerely believes Trump was engaged in these discussions, so he interprets Trump's directive as an order to lie and testifies to that effect to Mueller.

Obviously, the theory that this is a misunderstanding rests in large part on the actual emails. Is Trump crazy enough to have written an email to Cohen with something like "It is important that you lie in your testimony to Congress"? That would be harder to spin.

But if Trump wrote "You should testify that I don't remember any discussions about Moscow after January", is that an order to lie? Cohen may think so since he believed it to be false. However it would take more evidence to prove that Trump was aware that his statement was false (or made in reckless disregard of the truth) rather than simply an example of a memory lapse.

BTW, I blame sports talk radio for this word usage problem - callers, reporters, players and coaches routinely use "lie" when "misremember" would be more appropriate.

Why Not The Best?

If Washington is really committed to becoming a full time Snooki & Company DC Shore reality show, let's dial it up!

Obviously progressive It-girl Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez is too young to be Constitutionally eligible for the Presidency in 2020. So what?!? And some hidebound traditionalist states may have ballot rules for the Democratic primaries that require a primary candidate to be eligible for the office they seek - change the rules!

Democratic strategists should make a real push to get her on the primary ballots and give her a chance to accumulate delegates prior to the Democratic convention. That will let her be a formal power-player and ought to energize Democratic efforts to register and rally the youth vote, the way Barack and Bernie did and Hillary did not.

If the DC governing class doesn't want or expect to be taken seriously, then embrace the new reality. If they're just going to give us a show, give us a good one. Run AOC!

Quite The Terror Plan

Attacking the White House with an anti-tank rocket? This was a bold terror plan from a guy who had never fired a weapon.

Feel Good Moment Du Jour

UCLA gymnast Katelyn Ohashi puts a smile on everyone's face.

Drinking The Haterade At The FBI

OK, wow - the NY Times tells us that after Comey was fired the FBI complemented their criminal investigation of Trump with a counterintelligence probe. No reporting on whether the FBI sought, or found probable cause for, FISA warrants for folks other than Carter Page.

Why the revelation? Who knows? But a Trump-philic spin would be that Team Mueller is shifting the goalposts and trying to let The Resistance down gently. Note this deeply buried explanation of the two types of investigations:

The F.B.I. conducts two types of inquiries, criminal and counterintelligence investigations. Unlike criminal investigations, which are typically aimed at solving a crime and can result in arrests and convictions, counterintelligence inquiries are generally fact-finding missions to understand what a foreign power is doing and to stop any anti-American activity, like thefts of United States government secrets or covert efforts to influence policy. In most cases, the investigations are carried out quietly, sometimes for years. Often, they result in no arrests.

No arrests, no indictments, just a deeper understanding - well, that might cover the last two years. Hard news for The Resistance, if that is where this is headed.

PILING ON: Paul Mirengoff unloads.

OH, PLEASE: Benjamin Wittes of Lawfare is providing an example of the Power of Positive Rationalization. Or I am. Or both. His theme is that this investigation was about Russian interference in our election, not Trump per se. Supporting Congressional ass-covering testimony:

I have been authorized by the Department of Justice to confirm that the FBI, as part of our counterintelligence mission, is investigating the Russian government's efforts to interfere in the 2016 presidential election and that includes investigating the nature of any links between individuals associated with the Trump campaign and the Russian government and whether there was any coordination between the campaign and Russia's efforts (emphasis added).

And for emphasis:

It was about Russia. Full stop. It was always about Russia. And it still is about Russia.

The "full stop" is important so the reader can catch his breath after laughing out loud. Just off-hand, we know Team Hillary paid Steele (through cutouts) for dirt on Trump peddled by Russian government officials, some of which hit the US press before the election. Were the Russians hoping to aid both sides with the idea that the eventual loser of the election would scream "Collusion" and undermine the winner? Crafty!

Now, some people know that could not have been happening because US intel concluded that the Russkies started out helping both sides and fomenting division but eventually threw in behind Trump. Of course, many of those same people believe the intel behind Saddam's WMDs was politicized, but they know that didn't happen here. Whatever.

So how hard has Mueller pushed the Steele/Fusion GPS people? How many Facebook folks have been brought in to determine whether Russian moles are operating from the inside there? How deep an understanding has he tried to develop?

As an alternative to the "Always about Russia" paradigm, let's imagine this was always about the (bipartisan) Washington establishment rejecting the Trump insurgency. In that model, Hillary gets a pass, Facebook gets a pass, and yes, the investigation is all about Trump.

LAST LAUGH: From the Times, the FBI knows best:

A vigorous debate has taken shape among some former law enforcement officials outside the case over whether F.B.I. investigators overreacted in opening the counterintelligence inquiry during a tumultuous period at the Justice Department. Other former officials noted that those critics were not privy to all of the evidence and argued that sitting on it would have been an abdication of duty.

So if we knew what the FBI knew we would be reassured. This, from the same folks who resisted many oversight subpoenas just to spare themselves embarrassment. Strangely unconvincing, and where is the trust?

Girding For Ginsburg

Per Politico:

Trump White House urging allies to prepare for possible RBG departure

After an ailing Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg missed oral arguments, the Trump team began early groundwork for another potential confirmation battle.

I like this detail in their lede:

The White House is reaching out to political allies and conservative activist groups to prepare for an ailing Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s possible death or departure from the Supreme Court — an event that would trigger the second bitter confirmation battle of President Donald Trump’s tenure.

"Second" bitter battle? OK, the Kavanaugh brawl dialed it up to Bork-Thomas levels, but the Gorsuch nomination was filibustered and the Republicans went nuclear. Critics later observed that Kavanaugh was sufficiently controversial that Republicans might not have chosen to go nuclear in his defense, but post-Gorsuch the die had been cast. Ah, well, water, bridge... We do have video of the Resistance brainstorming session that led to the Gorsuch filibuster.

Top Tax Rates Outside The Bubble

Progressives agree and no one else matters - sky-high tax rates on "the rich" are what's best for all of us! But not so fast.

THE ETERNAL CAVEAT: Who are "the rich"? Paul Krugman is always going n about billionaires and private jets until tax reform is on the table and then he wants to raise taxes on everyone earning more than $250,000 (which is roughly where Bill Clinton's "millionaire's tax" kicked in).

However, in the current Ocasio-Cortez version of the progressive fantasy, we will see dream rates on those earning above $10 million per annum. This WaPo howler barely notes the problem that much of that high-end income is capital gains, not tedious W-2 wages and salary. Sure, let's raise the capital gains rate to 70% and see whether people volunteer to sell assets and incur the taxes. Bet they don't!

The Wall Is Coming!

The Wall is coming, or anyway, Trump will head to the border to talk about it.

Slow-Walking Out of Syria

Trump's prompt withdrawal from Syria may be delayed.

Saturday Night Lights

Bring on the Cowboys!

And Here Comes The Boom!

From gloom to boom on Wall Street - Dow up 800 on a huge jobs report and placatory comment from Fed chair Powell.

How Do You Like Them Apples?

Apple reduces their revenue guidance and we are all doomed.

Mitt Is Back

Mitt Romney blasts Trump in a WaPo guest piece, gets blasted back.

I question this from the Mitt piece:

To a great degree, a presidency shapes the public character of the nation.

Shapes, or reflects?

Mitt Is Back

Mitt Romney blasts Trump in a WaPo guest piece, gets blasted back.

I question this from the Mitt piece:

To a great degree, a presidency shapes the public character of the nation.

Shapes, or reflects?