If You Eliminate The Impossible...

Whatever remains, however improbable, has to be the truth.

Disregard, for a moment, the lovely debunking I recently saw (and now can't find) of that classic Sherlock Holmes quote. In the post below, I wondered about Hillary! Hawk, and speculated that Dick Gephardt was the prime beneficiary of her resolution on Iraq.

In a related (we claim) post, Andrew Sullivan speculates on the significance of the Al Gore endorsement of Howard Dean:

WHO ELSE WINS? Of course, one problem with the Gore-Dean juggernaut is that it makes an anyone-but-Dean candidacy more likely to emerge at some point. Clark was the obvious option, but he's so bad a candidate I can't see him pulling through on a centrist message (especially since he's been getting shriller and shriller on the stump). Kerry ... oh, never mind. Lieberman could have done it, but Gore's knifing him in the front rather knocks that scenario into the delete file. Edwards? He's run by far the most appealing campaign to my eyes, but he cannot hope to compete in the big leagues yet, especially with the kind of flattening momentum Dean now has....

The only major candidate missing from the "Anybody But Dean" contenders list is Dick Gephardt. Andrew does not rule him out! That and a buck gets you a cup of coffee, but still...

Over to the always interesting Dick Morris, also addressing the Gore endorsement:

...The fight we are witnessing is a battle for control of the Democratic Party.

In one corner stand the Clintons, sending contender after contender out to center ring in an effort to stop Dean from taking over their party. First Joe Lieberman came limping back. Then Wesley Clark ran away from the early primaries and forfeited the match. And now John Kerry is so far behind in New Hampshire that he is down for the count.

Well. Other observers pegged John Kerry as the catspaw of the Kennedy machine, but what the f***. Again, notably missing from this list is Dick Gephardt. He may not have started as a Clinton tool, but could he become one?

And how might Mr. Gephardt feel about having Ms. Clinton's implicit or explicit backing? Here is his statement regarding the Gore endorsement, as found in CNN:

"Dick Gephardt fought side-by-side with Al Gore to pass the Clinton economic plan, pass the assault weapons ban and defend against Republican attacks on Medicare and affirmative action. On each of these issues, Howard Dean was on the wrong side," Smith [a campaign press secretary for Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri] said.

Only a slight re-wording puts Ms. Clinton into that mix. Of course, she also may have cost Dick Gephardt his job as House Majority Leader, but that was then, and this is politics.

Comments

[Brad DeLong]

But... But... But... Back in 1993, Howard Dean was DLC-member in good standing, head of the National Governors' Association, Bill Clinton's best friend in his attempt to trim back the social-insurance state to those parts that actually worked (so that he could then expand it).

[Alex Parker]

Per Sherlock Holmes's advice, I think we may have to deal with the possibility that Al Gore actually likes Dean.

My first reaction was that after the recent NH polling, Al Gore decided he might as well get in good with the inevitable nominee.

Then, I decided that it was the opposite--he was hoping that, by endorsing Dean now, he would mainstream him a bit more, hopefully raising his chances next November.

But here's my theory now: this is all about the war. Since losing in 2000, Al Gore departed from the McAullife/Clinton strategy that the best thing for the Dems would be to offer tepid support for the Iraq war, and then get it over with quickly. Now, Gore is making his point that he wants a more aggressive stance, and that such an aggressive chance might be more successful.

[Max Sawicky]

In his own way Gephardt is as independent of the Clintonoid party apparatus as people-powered Howard. His base is trade unions, not I would suggest a pro-Clinton force (given other choices). Either Dean or Gephardt would make deals with the Clinton(s); that would be only natural.

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