It's time for a bit more history - it has been five long years since the once in a century impeachment trial, and over three years since the disputed Presidential election. Time for a brokered convention!
"Robert Musil" discussed this last week; now, Mickey Kaus and Robert Kuttner join in.
The driving force will be the Democratic reform of their primaries to award delegates based on proportional voting. Over to Mr. Kuttner:
The Democrats no longer use a winner-take-all-system. Thanks to party reforms, votes are allocated proportionally. So, in a nine-person field, a candidate can "win," say, South Carolina with a plurality of 30 percent of the vote -- but only get about 30 percent of that state's delegates. In the old days, the winner would have taken them all.
However, a point that is mentioned by Mr. Kuttner, but not emphasized, is that the prospect of a brokered convention becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Normally, a major candidate would drop out because a shortage of funds or an excess of self-awareness forces him (or Ms. Mosely-Braun) to admit that they have no realistic chance of victory. However, the dynamic changes if candidates are simply playing to stay alive - raising enough money to mount a token effort is much easier than raising enough to make competitive ad buys in California, New York, Texas and Ohio.
A token effort will be enough to allow a candidate to accumulate delegates and be a presence at the convention, where any of the six major candidates could imagine themselves being tapped for the Presidential nomination. On the other hand, the reward to dropping out early is nil - an early leaver will not be considered for the top of the ticket, and almost surely not for the bottom of the ticket either (are you getting this down, John Edwards?).
There are other reasons to drop out, such as to preserve one's stature for 2008, or to placate party leaders seeking unity. These don't seem to apply - the "party leaders" are currently unable to lead, and 2008 is reserved for Hillary and Al.
Therefore, for this group of candidates, the future is now. Dean has plenty of staying power; the remaining big five are hoping to become the un-Dean, and anyone who drops out simply strengthens the hand of those who stay in. All the incentives, therefore, are to stay in, and wait for others to leave. Which they won't. Call your broker.
UPDATE: Amongst the three vanity candidates, I assume Al Sharpton and Dennis the Menace are staying in. Since Ms. Braun is dropping out to endorse Dean, she is testing the alternative strategy - guess early, guess right, and your rewards will be plentiful.
MORE: paraphrasing Jeff Greenfield, appearing on CNN Friday morning: "Two weeks ago, the talk was that Dean was unstoppable. Today, the talk is that Dean is in free-fall and we are headed to a brokered convention. We will have these wild ideas, and more, on Monday".
WOW: The Cal Pundit was on this like angry on Howard, way back in November!
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Posted by: toy | October 07, 2007 at 02:03 AM