JustOneMinute: Iowa For The Truly Paranoid

Iowa For The Truly Paranoid

Mickey and the Man point out problems with the poll numbers coming out of Iowa - can we really believe the Kerry surge, and the Dean collapse? Actually identifying likely caucus-goers seems to be a huge problem with all these polls. On the other side, certain campaigns seem to have made a science of staying in touch with their supporters.

So, enough with common sense - let's get crazy. Suppose you were a brilliant strategist for an underdog insurgent outsider. And suppose your guy has caught fire (we did say you were brilliant), and now leads the pack. Do you (a) encourage your supporters to talk him up to every pollster that calls, thereby inflating expectations, or (b) remind supporters that time spent talking to pollsters is time wasted and that all we need to do is bring it on Monday night?

If your campaign is sufficiently well organized and financed, and in contact with its supporters (maybe the Internet would be handy), dampening expectations is a great and achievable tactic. Two weeks ago, Dean getting 28% in Iowa would have been ho-hum - now it will be a triumph.

This tidbit is topical:

In 2000, for example, then Vice President Al Gore led former Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey by only four percentage points in the final polling before the caucuses that year. In the end, though, Gore crushed Bradley, 63.4 percent to 39.2 percent, snuffing out the momentum Bradley was hoping to gain in Iowa by exceeding expectations.

Posted by Tom Maguire on January 16, 2004 | Permalink