The NY Times provides a grim assessment of the Pakistani army's performance and prospects in the Waziristan region:
Had Dr. Zawahiri and other militants humbled the mighty Pakistani army, killing at least 30 Pakistani soldiers and capturing another 20 before escaping? Or had the entire battle been blown out of proportion by Pakistani officials, including General Musharraf, in a week when they were eager to impress a visiting American dignitary, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell?
Both versions of the events carry a grain of truth, according to Pakistani analysts of military affairs. And whatever occurred, they said, the episode had troubling implications for the future of Pakistani military operations in the country's tribal areas.
And for the "Why didn't Bush get Musharraf to do this sooner?" crowd we have an extended excerpt after the break.
MORE: Pakistan, Al Qaeda, and India. Yes, the Indians wanted Pakistan designated a state sponsor of terror, and had a good case. Pakistan's ISI is wound up with Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and the other Kashmiri terror groups, which we all know but sometimes overlook when screaming at Pakistan to do more.
Hazan Askari Rizvi, a scholar who studies the Pakistani military, said the army only started to confront the militants four months ago, after two attempts by Islamists to assassinate General Musharraf in December. The crackdown accelerated after the United States accepted General Musharraf's pardon of the country's leading scientist, Abdul Qadeer Khan, in a scandal over the proliferation of Pakistan's nuclear technology. The United States also did not challenge General Musharraf when he said that he and all senior officials in Pakistan's powerful military and intelligence establishment had been completely unaware of Dr. Khan's proliferation activities.
Mr. Rizvi said that for the two years before the assassination attempts, the Pakistani army, while publicly pledging total support for the American war on terrorism, had turned a blind eye to some militants in the tribal areas. Those militants, he said, were aiding a Pakistan-backed insurgency in the Indian-controlled portion of Kashmir. "The Musharraf government did not want to alienate these groups," he said.
One American intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, estimated that the majority of the members of the Pakistani army and intelligence services were sympathetic to the militants and that many were helping them. He said American and British special operations were being conducted in the tribal areas to find Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahiri, a statement Pakistani officials denied.
Other Pakistani analysts have another theory: that while General Musharraf and senior military leaders firmly back the crackdown, some lower level members of the army, Frontier Corps and intelligence services may be continuing to tip off the militants. Opposition politicians, indeed, have complained that General Musharraf has been kowtowing to the United States - which, just last week, lifted sanctions imposed on Pakistan in 1999, when General Musharraf took power in a coup.
Mr. Rizvi, the military analyst, was more charitable. He predicted that things would go better for the Pakistani army in subsequent operations. Those efforts, he said, would be serious.
"The next time," he said. "I think they will be using massive force."
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