The situation in Iraq is much worse than a month ago, yet it is Kerry who sags in the polls - why? Some analysts attribute it to a "rally round the flag" effect. Maybe. Statistical noise and Republican attack ads may be factors as well. But I want to blame it on the good voters of the great state of Iowa.
Where was the passion, energy, and committment of the Democratic Party last January? Same place it is today - the anti-war movement. Yet what happened in Iowa in January? To everyone's astonishment, Dean collapsed and the Iowa caucuses deemed Kerry "electable", telling exit pollsters that the key issues were the economy and health care. No kidding.
Now here it is April, and Mr. Electable has never truly made his peace with the peace movement - he voted for diplomacy, but not Bush's diplomacy (perhaps he thought Bush would resign in favor of Al Gore if the Senate resolution authorizing war passed). He supports the internationalization of the current effort, and insists that failure is not an option, but he is (sensibly) flexible on re-defining success and failure.
So when Iraq blows up, who flocks to Kerry's banner? The fully "Anybody But Bush" crowd is already there; the truly anti-war group are far from convinced that Kerry is an exciting alternative to Bush, since he is currently committed to turning the corner and staying the course (it's Nixon-Humphrey 1968).
And do concerned Reps who very much want to see the Iraqi Liberation project succeed drop Bush for Kerry? Time will tell, but Mr. "I Actually Voted For The Bill Before I Voted Against it" does not yet inspire full confidence that he is committed to the success of this venture. A concern we may hold - Senators Byrd, Kennedy, and others are moving towards the "Vietnam quagmire/peace with honor" view of Iraq. If this becomes the mainstream position of Kerry's party and Democrats everywhere start tying yellow ribbons around trees, is there anything in Kerry's political history to suggest that he will buck his own party to carry on with Bush's mistake?
UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan says the same thing, but with greater pith. I will try for an original thought another day.
MORE: The Man Without Statistical Error notices the direction of the prevailing winds. My concern - I don't want the incumbent to win despite a troubling foreign policy simply because the economy is good and his opponent is unappealing, as in 1996; I am clinging to my hope that both the economy and Iraq will be looking good by the summer. (And yes, last December, that was my hope for the springtime.)
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