Something For Everyone

This seems like good news from Iraq:

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Fallujah's civic leaders joined American officials Monday in calling for insurgents battling Marines here to surrender their heavy weapons in return for a promise not to resume the U.S. offensive against the city, acording to a U.S. spokesman.

This is bad news, from the LA Times:

BAGHDAD — U.S. forces have stepped back from massive military action in the turbulent cities of Fallouja and Najaf, but the overwhelming sense here is that across much of Iraq (news - web sites), the ground is giving way beneath the Americans.

A culture of impunity has taken hold in Iraq. There are few limits to who can be taken hostage or how a hostage might be killed. In this environment, virtually any level of violence is acceptable if it is aimed at the occupation...

Although the military situation calmed last week, the reality on the ground was, if anything, more disturbing than the week before.

For foreigners — troops, diplomats, contractors rebuilding the country, and journalists — kidnappings became a daily occurrence. Shootings of people who look non-Arab — regardless of whether they were Western, Asian or African — became routine.

...Just three weeks ago, travel was easy outside Baghdad. There were risky stretches, but military convoys could pass. Foreign contractors could make their way from place to place, and journalists could drive to most areas of the country.

Now the roads out of the capital are so dangerous that few foreigners venture outside city limits. Nearly every day, a new area is closed or categorized as uncertain by the military.

Andrew Sullivan is optimistic, today anyway:

...All the news out of Iraq these past couple of weeks has been hyped into a message of despair. But in fact, something quite remarkable has occurred. The most dangerous representative of Islamicist theocracy in Iraq, Moqtadr al Sadr, facing the prospect of a moderate government, decided to play his only card and seize power by force. He was routed by American forces and isolated by moderate Shiites. He has now essentially surrendered any possibility of future power in the new Iraq and will be lucky not to be in prison before too long. Meanwhile, the Sunni Baathists remnants, joined by a variety of terrorists from around the region, stepped up their assaults in the city of Fallujah. They tried to piggy-back on al Sadr's revolt to create the appearance of chaos and precipitate an American withdrawal.

Enter the U.S. Marines. We do not yet know the details of the battle in Fallujah. But I predict it will be remembered as one of the most critical modern battles in the war on terror. In a matter of days, the insurgents were killed in vast numbers in classic urban warfare. The ratio of U.S. casualties to insurgent casualties was roughly one to ten. What should have been done very early in the invasion - the wiping out of the Baathist thugs and their Islamicist allies - was finally accomplished. And a truce broke out. It's still too early to know how this delicate situation will resolve itself. But both sides had made their point. Iraqi extremists had made it known they would make life very difficult for American troops and try very hard to create a new Vietnam. The Americans made it clear they wouldn't buckle under and could destroy the insurgents, if push came to shove.

Kevin Drum wonders why the hawks don't abandon Bush, who seems, by Kevin's lights, to have abandoned us (hmm, them? Too late!); Robert Garcia Tagorda provides some helpful spine-stiffening.

Finally, Niall Ferguson provides some history on Iraq; we provide some history on Niall Ferguson of Oxford, Jesus College.

Comments

[IceCold]

I was wary of god's-eye judgements like this ("but the overwhelming sense here is that across much of Iraq, the ground is giving way beneath the Americans.") I would be, even without last week's "uprisings" and "fierce combat" which were mostly innacurate. "Overshelming senses" of things are usually dodgy -- but given the general level of media understanding in Iraq, I'm very leery of this one.

Kidnappings of Iraqis (for money) were rampant since the war, though they had diminished significantly in the last few months. They didn't get much media attention. The conditions described sound a lot like Baghdad but not much like most other places. (The 3 Kurdish governorates as usual are mostly excluded from any such generalizations)

Sounds a lot like Georgia and nearby places in the early 90s. Police states always are the most lawless, it seems, once the Big Guy or equivalent is gone. Intimidation and passivity still reign among Iraqis, and if that doesn't change they'll be headed for the under-achievement of the (still young) century.

[bushgirlsgonewild]

http://www.keenans.org/2001906044.jpg

A picture is worth a thousand lies.