It Depends On The Meaning Of "Popular"

Prof. Krugman delivers a column lead so fanciful that one wonders from what world he is writing:

Over the course of this week we'll be hearing a lot about Ronald Reagan, much of it false. A number of news sources have already proclaimed Mr. Reagan the most popular president of modern times. In fact, though Mr. Reagan was very popular in 1984 and 1985, he spent the latter part of his presidency under the shadow of the Iran-Contra scandal. Bill Clinton had a slightly higher average Gallup approval rating, and a much higher rating during his last two years in office.

People looking for false commentary will want to start with this. First, Krugman delivers the strawman - what news sources have proclaimed Reagan "the most popular president of modern times"? It may be that some enhusiastic talking head said such a thing on one of the many news shows. However, Google-News and I cannot find such a reference in the NY Times or the Washington Post. Amongst the more likely suspects, Fox News and the NY Post seemed to have managed a bit of restraint, as with this characterization of Reagan as "the hugely popular 40th U.S. president".

We did find this irrationally exuberant from the UK Independent ("Affable right-winger became the most popular president in history"), but the text of the story is more restrained:

He left office in 1989 with the highest popularity rating of any retiring president in the history of modern-day public opinion polls....

Which is puzzling - we understand that JFK did not retire, but what about Eisenhower? In any event, Prof. Krugman seems to think the case can be made for Bill Clinton's popularity, reminding us that "Bill Clinton had a slightly higher average Gallup approval rating, and a much higher rating during his last two years in office."

Is the approval rating the measure of popularity? The conventional wisdom is that Reagan's genial disposition charmed even his critics, while Clinton's antics prompted auto-hair-tearing amongst his supporters (an extreme case of torn hair here). Let's go to the videotape (on text...) for a comment on the Clinton's high job approval / low personal approval ratings:

It is remarkable for a president to have such disparity between his performance and personal ratings. The only analogous situation was, in the reverse, with former President Reagan, whom many people liked even while they were less impressed with his policies and performance.

That was from 1998; here is similar data from the end of Clinton's term and the end of Reagan's term. Similar commentary here:

Reagan left with very high favorables, but his approval rating wasn't all that high because of Iran-Contra and various other things. Clinton is leaving with a very high approval rating, but personally, people are remembering the scandals, kind of disliking the aura that he left them.

Fine, this is not mysterious, except perhaps to Princeton professors. The next question is, does history count? Clinton's ratings took a hit from his controversial last-day pardons. Beyond that, history will judge whether his reputation will suffer from having presided over what appear, in hindsight, to have been peace and prosperity bubbles.

And, in hindsight, Reagan's image surely benefitted from the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Empire in 1991.

Fortunately, the Polling Report has already seen the future! Without peeking, we can guess that Kennedy will be highly ranked (he is!). Having peeked, we see that the vox populi ranks Reagan ahead of Clinton, and ahead of the other recent exes such as Carter (whew!).

Now, ex-Presidents tend to age well (and I am still looking for info on the gap between Bush 41's approval and favorable ratings - I think we liked him personally even as we voted him out). However, Jon Stewart (Daily Show) was very funny on the subject of the Reagan memorials. Paraphrasing, he said that the guys he felt most sorry for while watching the Reagan tributes were Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford - they had to know they were never going to get this. I will offer my advice to you two (he went on) - die while saving a child. Maybe running into a burning building will do it. Maybe.

MORE: The column Krugman wanted to write; the eulogy he had better not read (aneurysm alert!).

UPDATE: Quando does content - Krugman is having fun with his baselines and numbers; imagine my surprise.

UPDATE: Balloon Juice; approval and favorable summaries, with inexplicable numbers for Nixon.

Comments

[HH]

More on this here (check my comments there too).

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Actually, by the only metric that matters, Reagan was the most popular. He passed his presidency on to his VP. Not Eisenhower, not LBJ, nor Clinton managed that feat.

But the popularity question isn't the worst of this column:

"...the economy grew slightly faster under President Clinton,"

Which is because Clinton inherited a growing economy from his predecessor (and two years later had the good fortune to have to deal with Newt and Phil in the majority, therefore his worst instincts were checked). Reagan, on the other hand, inherited the worst economy since the Great Depression, including the highest gas prices EVER.

"...and, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates, the after-tax income of a typical family, adjusted for inflation, rose more than twice as much from 1992 to 2000 as it did from 1980 to 1988."

Again, no thanks to Clinton, he was as surprised as the next guy by it (read his speeches of the mid-nineties. And: "after-tax income of a typical family"?).

And the come-down recession was bequeathed to Bush II. What a lucky bastard Charmin' Billy was.

[Brainster]

I think the key is the collapse of the Soviet Union. It's clearly Reagan's legacy to the country, and yet because it happened after his term, it was not reflected in his job approval numbers at the time of his retirement.

[The Kid]

While I wish the good perfessor no misfortune – discomfort, yes; death, no – I suspect that were he to kick the bucket soon, he’d have almost as many folks queued up to see him off as will have passed the coffin containing the earthly remains of the great Ronaldus Maximus by Friday.

However, I suspect that the line would move a little slower and therefore suggest that his heirs, assigns, and loved ones purchase a waterproof casket with an acid-resistant additive. A few bags of quicklime at the ready to sweeten the air might be a good idea too.

[Soul]

Popularity isn't defined as how little your opponents dislike you. For a Presdent popularity is based on popularity ratings.
It s also not true that Reagan was universally admired or liked. AIDS activists weren't charmed by him, and homeless advocates din't find him disarming. Peopl say nice things when people die. It's human decency. You'e right that Clinton's foes hated him more tha. Reagans foes hated Reagan. That says far more about them than it does about him.