C'mon, surely you remember the Pakistan Spring Offensive - Operation Mountain Storm, where US Special Forces would seal the Afghan side of the border while the Pakistani Army routed the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Pakistan? Osama would be captured, Bush would be re-elected, oh frabjous day!
The NY Times threw one bucket of cold water at the end of March; now they deliver another:
Militant's Defiance Puts Pakistan's Resolve in Doubt
PESHAWAR, Pakistan - A brash 27-year-old Taliban fighter named Nek Muhammad is the talk of the town in this famed border city, long a haven for adventurers, rogues and revolutionaries. His defiance raises a central question in the American-led drive against terrorism: is President Pervez Musharraf doing all he can to hunt down Osama bin Laden?
Mr. Muhammad soared to national prominence on March 18, when Pakistani forces surrounded what General Musharraf had called a "high-value target" near Mr. Muhammad's home in the remote tribal areas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Suspicions rose that a top leader of Al Qaeda might have been encircled after Pakistani forces had tried to raid Mr. Muhammad's house and met unexpectedly stiff resistance.
At the time, General Musharraf vowed to hunt for hundreds of foreign militants, possibly including Mr. bin Laden, who are believed to be hiding in the border area. But for the last few months Pakistani military operations in the tribal areas have been suspended as General Musharraf's government has negotiated with Mr. Muhammad.
This single paragraph delivers the goods for both the Bush-bashers and the Kerry-non-lovers:
...One Pakistani military official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the government was taking advantage of the American focus on Iraq to delay acting in the tribal areas. The official said the government hoped to wait out American demands for action until the presidential election was over and American attention and pressure might drop.
Finally, we excerpt the comedy classics:
...After several weeks of negotiations, Pakistani officials announced that a deal had been reached. In a moment of tribal theater on April 24, a Pakistani Army corps commander flew to the remote village of Shakai to accept the surrender of Mr. Muhammad and four other wanted Pakistani militants.
...Minutes after the conclusion of the [surrender] ceremony, Mr. Muhammad appeared to backtrack. He told Pakistani journalists that he would continue to wage jihad, said no foreigners were hiding in the area and professed his loyalty to the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Muhammad Omar.
...He also later disavowed a central tenet of the deal. Government officials said Mr. Muhammad had agreed that all foreigners in the tribal areas would register with the government within six days. Mr. Muhammad said no such agreement had been reached.
In the weeks since Mr. Muhammad's "surrender," not a single foreigner has registered, according to Pakistani officials. Some officials in Washington, while continuing to publicly support General Musharraf, have privately expressed concern that Pakistan is backtracking in the hunt for Mr. bin Laden.
Militants continue to recruit. In recent weeks a new professionally produced Pashto-language recruiting DVD has begun circulating in the tribal areas. The DVD features computer graphics and crisp, well-shot digital images of the March battle in Wana, taken from the perspective of the militants. As the narrator assails General Musharraf for "allying with the infidels," burning Pakistani Army convoys, dead Pakistani soldiers and heroic-looking militants flash across the screen.
For 35 minutes, images of American soldiers abusing Iraqis, Israeli soldiers abusing Palestinians and Pakistani soldiers abusing Pakistani civilians are weaved into a mosaic. The DVD concludes with a one-line message: "Let's wage jihad."
On to Plan C. Or D.
UPDATE: From the archives of the Belmont Club, more in Operation Mountain Storm from last March, with interesting links.
LATE UPDATE: Nek Mohammed was killed in a missile attack on June 18. A renewed crackdown followed.
May I go bang my head against the wall?
Posted by: Brad DeLong | June 10, 2004 at 02:41 PM
Well, we are more in a "tear down this wall" modality this week. Regular head-wall impaction will resume soon.
Posted by: TM | June 10, 2004 at 03:58 PM
Hmmm. First, Iraq has no effect on things that the Paks can play, and specifically US forces in Afghanistan are at a record high and have been on the offensive (and that's just the ones we talk about). NYT types and those who consider it an adult newspaper seem endlessly ignorant and gullible about certain mythological creatures, "distraction" prominent among them. Second, pre-emption was the primary objective, and it was achieved -- aside from very impressive murders of unarmed aid workers, the other side has been running and getting shellacked, as usual. Mountainous Central Asian fighting usually follows a fairly strict seasonal pattern -- which we of course bucked successfully -- and if the enemy had ambitions for this spring, they've turned into many, many of their own dead and nothing accomplished. Third, it's entertaining but quite unrealistic to think that the US counts on any deal concerning the tribal areas to either transpire or stick. Not.
Afghanistan will never look like a success to those clueless about the nature of our (mostly negative) interests and objectives there. It's a free country, so all are free to bang their heads if they want.
Posted by: IceCold | June 10, 2004 at 05:53 PM