Powered by TypePad

« Sand-Berg SquarePants Steps Down From Kerry Campaign | Main | What Would Witness Intimidation Sound Like? »

July 20, 2004



I think the only "bounce" will come from turnout. The numbers being looked at now are registerd voters and "likely" voters. The performances of Kerry and Bush at their respective conventions will move some of those voters into the "certain to vote" or "unlikely to vote" camps.

The "hate Bush" people will vote (unless, by late October, it looks like Bush will win - I think these people are more likely to "boycott" the election if they don't think Bush can be beaten). The strong supporters of the president will vote.

The "dislike Bush, but don't like Kerry" people will only vote if Kerry gives them a reason to vote for him or Bush convinces them he isn't as bad as they think. I think pushing these people a little more negative one way or the other (or both ways)will only ensure a larger percentage stay home. They are telling pollsters how they feel now, not what they will do in November. If they really feel both choices are bad, I think they stay home.

The comments to this entry are closed.