Dem Pre-Panic Watch

Stealing an idea from a frequent commenter, let's ask - if there are no undecided voters, how can Kerry get a convention bounce?

And how will that affect the Dem Panic Watch?

BONUS: Will Kerry's non-bounce take the air out of the Dump Cheney movement? (This article says forget about Changing Cheney, for other reasons.)

Excerpts below:

To an unprecedented degree, Americans already have decided how they are going to vote in November. Polls differ, but all suggest that between 43 percent and 45 percent of voters plan to vote for George W. Bush and won’t give any consideration to John Kerry, and an equal percentage plan to vote for Sen. Kerry, and won’t give any consideration to President Bush.

That leaves just 10 percent to 15 percent of voters who say they remain uncertain about how they will vote. And Republican pollster Bill McInturff says his research shows even most of the undecided voters are less malleable than the label indicates.

"The polarization is exceptional," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart. "Even the independents break down into pro-Bush and anti-Bush groups." Kerry strategist Mark Mellman goes further: "All the evidence suggests we are fighting over less than 10 percent of the electorate, and probably less than 6 percent."

Says Mr. McInturff: "I’ve never seen anything like this in my 25-year career."

Comments

[Dan]

I think the only "bounce" will come from turnout. The numbers being looked at now are registerd voters and "likely" voters. The performances of Kerry and Bush at their respective conventions will move some of those voters into the "certain to vote" or "unlikely to vote" camps.

The "hate Bush" people will vote (unless, by late October, it looks like Bush will win - I think these people are more likely to "boycott" the election if they don't think Bush can be beaten). The strong supporters of the president will vote.

The "dislike Bush, but don't like Kerry" people will only vote if Kerry gives them a reason to vote for him or Bush convinces them he isn't as bad as they think. I think pushing these people a little more negative one way or the other (or both ways)will only ensure a larger percentage stay home. They are telling pollsters how they feel now, not what they will do in November. If they really feel both choices are bad, I think they stay home.