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July 15, 2004



A random thought about the bounce. Leave aside for a moment the spin. Prior to the selection of Edwards, wouldn't we have pretty much said that no matter who the selection is, there's likely to be only marginal change? All the polls have the candidates totally split, with 80% of both sides firmly behind their candidate. The undecideds are something like 7% of the electorate. What kind of bounce could Kerry have gotten?

Prediction: The DNC convention will provide Kerry with only a marginal bounce.

Another prediction: The RNC convention will provide Bush with only a marginal bounce.


Assuming that you are right about the "Undecideds", your point is very insightful. It suggests, for example, that we will have two episodes of what Kaus is calling "Dem panic" - the curent "no-bounce", and another "no-bounce" after the convention.

Dems will then have a month to stew on the possibility that their guy really is that bad (He is! and Too Late!), with whatever effect that has on morale, fundraising, and other races (where Dems, especially in the South, run from the ticket like kids playing Spud).

But we are talking about Olympic August, so maybe that is no big deal.

Then, we have the Rep convention - if your theory holds up, there is no Bush bounce, and Dems, with confidence renewed, march into Autumn (that would be the autumn of our country, too...).

Hmm. Over time, it is a wash, unless Dem panic (or August Rep hubris) make a difference.

And there is a possible Dem benefit! If Rove is pol-watching (gee, ya think?), he may decide, after the Dem convention no-bounce, that Cheney's ticker is A-OK. Cheney is not dumped for McCain, no Rep bounce, Kerry wins!

Anyway, very interesting. One presumes that the Great Minds in the two parties are aware of this, in which case there should be hints of this amongst the top fund-raisers as they reassure/warn their audience.

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