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November 04, 2004


Jim Glass

I have a hard time believing that Pataki is going to travel well into national politics out of New York any more than Christie Whitman did out of New Jersey. (And she had affirmative action going for her.)

Jim Glass

Tradesports already has "Clinton '08" at 35, and "Democrat to win in'08" at 51.

When a few billion dollars find their way into these election markets things are going to be interesting. Future history: "The Black Sox Democrats of 2028 threw the presidential election to collect a bet..."

TS has contracts on which Supreme Court justice will be next to leave the bench, which Rhenquist has shot up on like Bush did yesterday morning. And they've got "Michael Jackson convicted" at 62. I'm getting to enjoy that site.


Pataki is a boring speaker. He showed that at the Republican convention. The Republicans can certainly do better than Pataki as a candidate.

And I'm not betting on Jeb. First, he continues to say he wouldn't run in '08, so I take him at his word. Second, although he is a great natural speaker, I don't know if the country will accept back-to-back Bush presidencies. At least there was Clinton between Bush 1 & Bush 2. Having Bush 3 right after Bush 2 smacks of WAY TOO MUCH of a BUSH KINGDOM rather than the Republic that is the USA.


Pataki has as much personallity as a dead moth.


. Future history: "The Black Sox Democrats of 2028 threw the presidential election to collect a bet..."

Could a reporter supplement their income by betting big on a story they were about to break?

I am trying to see how much the market moved with the CBS forgery story. My recollection is, not much.

Oh, I agree about Pataki. However, he occupies the niche filled by Giuliani, and only one can survive.

Patrick R. Sullivan

I foresee a Jimmy Carter style "from out of nowhere" campaign. How about Mark Warner of Virginia? Bill Richardson of New Mexico? Mike Easley of No. Carolina?


We like governors for their executive experience. And obviously, Dems do best with stealth Southern governors (Clinton, Carter). I know nothing about Warner or Easely, but the geography is right.


Seems to me that all of this will be taken over by events - I have a feeling with the "mandate" that we will see some real pressure put in place on social issues - from Roe to gay marriage to stem cells, to "faith based" contraceptive choices. The libertarians won't know what hit them.

The Dems didn't do it wrong - Rove did it better. Now that these "values" people have decided to show up, they will be heard.

Frank Myers

My Big Mover up the rankings this week is Evan Bahy of Indiana.

See the Top 40 of each party at www.Primary2008.com

Jim Glass

"Could a reporter supplement their income by betting big on a story they were about to break?"

Don't know about that, but I can imagine the day coming when if a future Hussein thinks he'll get invaded if a future Bush gets elected, he'll be able to lay off the risk in the market to pick up enough money to buy a house in Switzerland or a French ambassador to the UN if it happens.


Clinton is not going to run for re-election as Senator. No reason to do so. She would have to immediately start to run for president afterwards. The risk of loss to Rudy (or Patacki) is too great. She does not need the Senate as a platform. She already has 100% name recognition. She proved by election that she was just not a spouse.


As an ex-NYer, I doubt Pataki has any chance at all. He was elected as a cure for Mario Cuomo and hasn't lived up to his billing. His first term was almost good. Now he's just another corrupt, NY politician. NY pols are as corrupt as Boston pols, but not as good at running anything.

Condi would be great, but I would bet she's more likely to be VP first. She's never held elective office. It's hard to start at President. Just ask Hillary.

What about Gov Erlich of MD? I've been thinking that he has a real shot. Despite everything the media and MD dems can do, he's still pretty popular. He has W-sized b@lls and says what he's going to do and then does it.


There was an attempt to talk Harold Ford, Jr. over to the Republican Party on television just the other morning. (Nov. 3, IIRC, on Fox and Friends morning show)

But Frist has pledged he will only serve two terms as Senator. That would have him retiring from the Senate to start his presidential campaign not facing Rep. Ford in 2006.

Isn't this correct, Mr. Maguire?


I don't think Mr. M. Cares

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