George And The Dragon

The Times appraises Hillary's prospects for 2008:

More than that, Mrs. Clinton's advisers privately maintained on Wednesday that she has a far bigger hurdle to surmount before she can seriously contemplate any presidential candidacy: her own re-election back home in New York in 2006. Her aides and other strategists argue that she must win her re-election decisively - not merely eke out a victory - because it would be futile for her to begin a national campaign with a shaky base of support back home.

... some Democrats believe that one big-name Republican giving serious thought to challenging her in 2006 is Gov. George E. Pataki, a three-term incumbent who has made inroads among Democratic voters and who is up for re-election that year.

It is Dems throwing down the gauntlet. But are these Dems Friends of Hillary? No matter. If Pataki has national aspirations, he can't simply be a tall liberal NY governor - he must be The Slayer.

MORE: Mixed metaphor alert! Mythical creatures, beware. (Well, unicorns are safe...)

UPDATE: TradeSports is now listing Dem prospects for 2008. Hillary is the favorite, with a 35% chance of gaining the nomination. And begging to be sold - Sen. Chris Dodd of CT, currently in second place with a 10% probability. Anyone with an account at TradeSports, I implore you, sell this and thank me later - the Dems are not going to nominate yet another liberal Northeastern Senator. Yes, he is too a liberal - here are the Poole rankings for the 107th and 108th Congresses, and Dodd is firmly to the left of such notables as Kerry, Edwards, and Clinton. [Some Poole-related links here and here.]

Gov. Bill Richardson has regional and ethnic appeal, as well as Executive branch experience - he is third, at 6%, and a buy.

Who else is on the Dem bench? As they lose their Southern governorships, it gets tougher for them to launch a candidate with broad national appeal. What about Congressman Harold Ford of TN? Dem "strategists" passed him over for House Minority Leader in favor of Nancy Pelosi. If Mr. Ford wants to switch parties, Orrin Judd will be thrilled. Otherwise, he might want to burnish his resume and gain huge cred in the Dem party by knocking off Bill Frist, who is up for re-election in 2006. How about a run for Governor instead? Sorry, seat taken - Tennessee has a well-regarded Dem Governor up for re-election in 2006.

UNRELENTING: In a different forum, I speculated that the reelection of George Bush could fracture both parties.

Glenn Reynolds opines.

Comments

[Jim Glass]

I have a hard time believing that Pataki is going to travel well into national politics out of New York any more than Christie Whitman did out of New Jersey. (And she had affirmative action going for her.)

[Jim Glass]

Tradesports already has "Clinton '08" at 35, and "Democrat to win in'08" at 51.

When a few billion dollars find their way into these election markets things are going to be interesting. Future history: "The Black Sox Democrats of 2028 threw the presidential election to collect a bet..."

TS has contracts on which Supreme Court justice will be next to leave the bench, which Rhenquist has shot up on like Bush did yesterday morning. And they've got "Michael Jackson convicted" at 62. I'm getting to enjoy that site.

[Mimi]

Pataki is a boring speaker. He showed that at the Republican convention. The Republicans can certainly do better than Pataki as a candidate.

And I'm not betting on Jeb. First, he continues to say he wouldn't run in '08, so I take him at his word. Second, although he is a great natural speaker, I don't know if the country will accept back-to-back Bush presidencies. At least there was Clinton between Bush 1 & Bush 2. Having Bush 3 right after Bush 2 smacks of WAY TOO MUCH of a BUSH KINGDOM rather than the Republic that is the USA.

[Joe]

Pataki has as much personallity as a dead moth.

[TM]

. Future history: "The Black Sox Democrats of 2028 threw the presidential election to collect a bet..."

Could a reporter supplement their income by betting big on a story they were about to break?

I am trying to see how much the market moved with the CBS forgery story. My recollection is, not much.

Oh, I agree about Pataki. However, he occupies the niche filled by Giuliani, and only one can survive.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

I foresee a Jimmy Carter style "from out of nowhere" campaign. How about Mark Warner of Virginia? Bill Richardson of New Mexico? Mike Easley of No. Carolina?

[TM]

We like governors for their executive experience. And obviously, Dems do best with stealth Southern governors (Clinton, Carter). I know nothing about Warner or Easely, but the geography is right.

[TexasToast]

Seems to me that all of this will be taken over by events - I have a feeling with the "mandate" that we will see some real pressure put in place on social issues - from Roe to gay marriage to stem cells, to "faith based" contraceptive choices. The libertarians won't know what hit them.

The Dems didn't do it wrong - Rove did it better. Now that these "values" people have decided to show up, they will be heard.

[Frank Myers]

My Big Mover up the rankings this week is Evan Bahy of Indiana.

See the Top 40 of each party at www.Primary2008.com

[Jim Glass]

"Could a reporter supplement their income by betting big on a story they were about to break?"

Don't know about that, but I can imagine the day coming when if a future Hussein thinks he'll get invaded if a future Bush gets elected, he'll be able to lay off the risk in the market to pick up enough money to buy a house in Switzerland or a French ambassador to the UN if it happens.

[Bob]

Clinton is not going to run for re-election as Senator. No reason to do so. She would have to immediately start to run for president afterwards. The risk of loss to Rudy (or Patacki) is too great. She does not need the Senate as a platform. She already has 100% name recognition. She proved by election that she was just not a spouse.

[Veeshir]

As an ex-NYer, I doubt Pataki has any chance at all. He was elected as a cure for Mario Cuomo and hasn't lived up to his billing. His first term was almost good. Now he's just another corrupt, NY politician. NY pols are as corrupt as Boston pols, but not as good at running anything.

Condi would be great, but I would bet she's more likely to be VP first. She's never held elective office. It's hard to start at President. Just ask Hillary.

What about Gov Erlich of MD? I've been thinking that he has a real shot. Despite everything the media and MD dems can do, he's still pretty popular. He has W-sized b@lls and says what he's going to do and then does it.

[Birkel]

There was an attempt to talk Harold Ford, Jr. over to the Republican Party on television just the other morning. (Nov. 3, IIRC, on Fox and Friends morning show)

But Frist has pledged he will only serve two terms as Senator. That would have him retiring from the Senate to start his presidential campaign not facing Rep. Ford in 2006.

Isn't this correct, Mr. Maguire?

[Rose]

I don't think Mr. M. Cares