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May 24, 2005



I agree about Dumbledore. But I'm not sold on the chess match theory. Thou I'm big believer in Potion/ logic puzzle ( 7 viles of which 3 killers Quirrel,Barty Crouch Jr, Umbridge , 2 are Nettle wine Lockhart and another, one to move foward Lupin, and one vile to move backwards unknown ) being a predictor of the DADA professors.

Hmmmmmmmm ........

Does make me a geek ?


I agree about Dumbledore. But I'm not sold on the chess match theory. Thou I'm big believer in Potion/ logic puzzle ( 7 viles of which 3 killers Quirrel,Barty Crouch Jr, Umbridge , 2 are Nettle wine Lockhart and another, one to move foward Lupin, and one vile to move backwards unknown ) being a predictor of the DADA professors.

Hmmmmmmmm ........

Does make me a geek ?


vials not viles


vials not viles

Bill Cook

It's Albus Dumbledore:



Gambling markets, absent inside information, simply reflect the conventional wisdom about any issue. Tierney didn't note the wild swings in the gambling markets on election day, when the odds against Kerry winning suddenly got shorter. For much of the afternoon and early evening, Kerry was favored by those markets, which reacted to the early exit polls.

That said, yes, it's Dumbledore.


Future's markets are odd for two reasons:

1. Most participants (all participants in something like this) are speculators and have no desire for the commodity underlying the future. That is: They exit the market before the contract comes due.

2. It's a zero-sum game. Every trade has two sides. There is no limit to the trading (volume and open interest are pretty much unrelated). Every trade has a winner and a loser.

In real futures markets, speculators serve to add liquidity - and 50% of them (or rather their trades) make money.

The inside information issue is less important than technical analysis. The market will only react to the inside information when it becomes public. The advantage is an early-mover advantage. With techinical analysis, the advantage is recognizing underlying patterns - and there usually are some - and acting the market, per se, not the "real world" that underlies the market.

Technical speculation in future's markets move them with very little relevance to what's going on in the real world. Inside information doesn't necessarily move the market, it just gives the insiders the "right" position, which may lose money. When the herd effect takes place on the information's publication (e.g. the terrorist attack occurs), it's too late to make money off it so the market may not follow. With no underlying, there is no reason (i.e. hedging) to buy the futures - even if it is the right position.

The Zero Boss

Of course Dumbledore is a dead man. He's Obi-wan to Harry's Luke - Mufasa to Harry's Simba. The two can't co-exist in the same world forever.

It's, like, mythic, man.

Alex Knapp

J.K. Rowling has said, on several occasions, that Ron, Hermione, and Harry all survive the events of all seven novels.

Everyone else, though, is fair game, so my money's on Dumbledore.


CrookedTimber had some good discussions on decision (and future I think?) markets and whether or not they make sense around the time "The Wisdom of Crowds was Published". Surzwecki even participated. I'm too lazy to google, but for those interested in this kinda stuff.



Actually I'm looking at the Mirror of Erisad for what might come. Remember that mirror was supposed to tell people what they most desired, at that's what Dumbledore told Harry. But the mirror predicted that Ron would be both Head Boy *and* Quiddich Captain. Now in the last book we find out that Ron has been made a Prefect, a requirement for Head Boy, and he's developed considerable talent at goalkeeping for Quiddich, the same position held by the previous Captain.

What if the mirror doesn't tell, or just tell, your innermost desire. But instead it tells you what the future may be. Not necessarily will be, because of free will and how things can change, but may be.

In which case Harry will definitely die when he confronts, and hopefully defeats, Voldemort. Because he can only meet his family, all of his family, in death.

It's an interesting thing.



Oh and my prediction is that Ron won't die at the end. He and Hermione will survive, marry and have a son that they'll name Harry in honor of their deceased friend.

Thus the entire series will have come full circle. It will start with an infant Harry, and it will end with an infant Harry.

Chad Brooks

Read the Tierney column and unless I missed something the predictions were completely wrong. A German won not an Italian - Ratzingberger was an early favorite and yet he is not mentioned in the article.


Actually, JKR has never come out and said that Harry, Ron and Hermione will survive the series. She has not ever said Harry himself will survive, and he's the main character. Whoever else dies, I could care less about. It's Harry I'm interested in.

Ed, don't forget that Ron only got Prefect because Dumbledore thought Harry had enough to do. The Prefecture belonged to Harry. And Ron did a lousy job as Prefect. Same with his Quidditch. "Considerable talent"? That's quite stretching it. The kid had one lucky save at a fortituous moment.

And I agree that Bellatrix will kill Ron. The whole first book is a map of the series overall, I believe. Ron sacrifices himself so Harry can go on because Harry is the only one who can defeat Voldemort (the Chess match). Hermione is by Harry's side right up till the very showdown (Potions riddle - only one can go forward and one has to go back). Then it's smackdown time! And I believe that Harry will not die in the 7th book. What would have been the point of all the kid's suffering, just for him to die? He will have failed if he doesn't survive, even if he takes Voldemort with him.

As for Ron and Hermione surviving to name a son after their dear, departed best friend... just remember, the books are about Harry Potter, and will end with him, not Harry Weasley. The author has repeatedly said that everything is because of, for, by Harry. He is the reason for everything, and everything connects to him. Therefore, the books should conclude with Harry Potter. And Harry doesn't have to die to have his family. All he has to do is make one of his own. I'm sure his parents (his mom, especially) would be ecstatic to know that their son willingly kicked the bucket "to be with his family" after they'd fought with everything they had and sacrificed their own lives so he could LIVE.

Paul Zrimsek

All the economic loose ends will be tied together in the final book, Harry Potter and the Wealth of Nations.


The Snape/harry conflict will be resolved towards the end of the series, as Snape somehow gives his life to save Harry's.


As long as we are speculating - Harry survives, but...
His power is tied to Voldemort's. The only way he can defeat Voldy is by surrendering his own power and becoming the squib he was born to be. That will be the last book's finale.

Tom Maguire

Good point about Tierney's column getting the papal predictions wrong. Here is a follow-up:

Amid furious online wagering, Internet gaming site Intrade.com crowed Wednesday that its customers had correctly picked Joseph Ratzinger as the cardinal who would emerge as the new Pope. By W. David Gardner TechWeb.com

The election of Joseph Cardinal Ratzinger as Pope Benedict XVI was prophesied on several online betting sites, but, in horse racing parlance, Ratzinger had to make a furious stretch drive to cross the finish line first. Days before his historic election, there were several other cardinals ranked ahead of him.

Just a week before the telltale white smoke rose Tuesday from the Cardinals' meeting in the Vatican's Sistine Chapel, six cardinals were more highly favored on the gambling sites over Cardinal Ratzinger. But, as a consensus seemed to build in Rome and in the media, bets for the German prelate rose, too.

Internet wagering site Intrade.com crowed Wednesday that its customers had correctly placed their money on Ratzinger.


Fiona, you've forgotten that Gryffindor won the House Cup because of Ron's exceptional goalkeeping ability, which was finally unleashed when he realized he couldn't possibly get any worse. Remember, Angelina had faith in him, it just took a few matches for that faith to be justified. (Sorry, I just re-read The Order of the Phoenix last week, so all this is quite fresh in my memory.)

Regarding the Prefecture -- Harry breaks too many rules and causes too much trouble to ever be a Prefect. It's not clear that Ron is all that much better than Harry, but he is less of a trouble-magnet, and Prefects have to be able to put up with a lot.

It's got to be Dumbledore.

My biggest fear is that after book 7 and movie 7 are finally out there, they'll come up with a tv series in which Harry & Ginny (eventually they will get together), and Ron & Hermione are all working as aurors, and have to combat the Dark Wizard of the Week.

I hope Rowling never lets the franchise spin out of control!


dumbledore is evil

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