So When Do We Get The Surprise Revelation?

Mickey likes McCain's chances as a third party candidate (so do we).  But when Ron Brownstein made a similar point a few weeks back, there was a surprise follow-up.

I have nothing to announce.  Mickey?

MORE:  Brendan Nyhan poo-poos a third party scheme.

UPDATE:  Mickey poo-poos Brendan Nyhan's dismissal of a third party run in an addendum - well, that does not count as surprise. 

And let's try to picture a McCain-Lieberman ticket - centrist appeal, a media shoulder ride, name recognition, political experience - these two would be the first choice of a big chunk of the electorate in the center, and the second choice of two more big slices from the left and right.

Nyhan's argument is that strategic voters don't get behind third parties because it undermines their first choice.  That theory works fine when the third party is off to the far left (Nader) or right (Buchanan).  It makes a lot less sense when the third party has centrist appeal, and is everygody's second choice.  Ross Perot got 19% despite dropping out of the race before re-entering it (foreshadowing a future candidate, Perot was against the race before he was for it).

Comments

[ThomasJackson]

Please have McCain run, please, please. Its one way to demonstrate the HUGE number of people who respect and like him. I mean I bet he commands the loyalty of more people than live in Hoboken!

[Neo]

Get over it.

McCain will not run in 2008.

[peapies]

call me crazy, but I think if McCain were to do this, it would hurt Demo runner more the the GOP runner. I think MCCain has become Hillary-ised in the GOP...lots would vote just so they could vote aginst him AND it would force the Dem to go fringy ANd the media that loves McCain would be torn AND dems not so fringy would be more inclined to vote for McCain, thus hurting the Dem runner. No, I think a McCain 3-rd party would be more like a Nader than a Perot.

But what do I know?

[Crank]

Remember, McCain's hero is Teddy Roosevelt, who wrecked the GOP by running a third-party candidacy in 1912. He could do it.

[Spaceman]

Well McCain and company (aka, the magnificent 7) were quite easily duped in the great filibuster switcharoo by Harry Reid and the 7 stooges.

I believe Mr. McCain is a bit too grandstanding to rely on for the tough calls.

[richard mcenroe]

If McCain declared a third-party candidacy, it would take the Democrat-shackled MSM about one headline to turn on him. The New York Times will read like Captain's Quarters...

[ed]

Hmmm.

McCain will run as the Democrat VP to Hillary Clinton in 2008.

This is why McCain is doing what he is doing now. He is buying credibility with the Democrats at the expense of any remaining credibility with conservatives in the GOP. This is because McCain dislikes conservatives, and the feeling is returned with interest, and realised long ago that he cannot win in a party where there are conservatives.

And frankly a 3rd party run is just too difficult to manage. If McCain ran as a 3rd party, then he'd either have to take over an existing 3rd party or else form one himself. The former means he gets saddled with all the idiots that failed in the past. The latter requires massive amounts of money and a serious grassroots machine. McCain is too smart to do the former and too poor to do the latter.

And with McCain's ego there is no way he is sitting out 2008.

[Tom Bowler]

I think McCain will do it, as I've said here. (Warning, shameless self promotion ahead: Please note the date on the post. I'm ahead of Mickey and Tom on this one.) I also agree with Peapies, that the damage may go to the Dems. In the recent past, third party candidates have tended to be more conservative/libertarian/anti-big-government types. Not likely to be attracted to McCain. If the Republicans can nominate somebody with conservative/libertarian/small-government credentials the Dems get hammered by a McCain third party bid.

[tracelan]

McCain is a backstabing RINO. He is always ready and willing to undermine his party for personal media attention.

[Appalled Moderate]

I don't see the Kossacks and the Move On types tolerating a McCain VP run.

McCain has pretty regular issues with Melanoma. That plus his age makes health a concern with him.

Sure he'd like to BE president. The question is whether he wants to actually run for the job, and likely lose.

By the way, guys. You may not like it, but if all the RINOS in the world decide to become Democrats, you won't have a majority party anymore. Tough on defense, wary of deficits, not so obsessed on social issues is a pretty attractive political package -- not sure you really want the Democrats to have it.

[Jeff]

The New Yorker has a convincing article on McCain this week (last week for you East-Coasters--I get everything five days late). It makes a fairly convincing argument that he's running. Based on the solid political support he's offered his fellow GOPpers and the damage he did to Kerry last year, I can't imagine he doesn't run with the elephants.

[ed]

Hmmm.

"By the way, guys. You may not like it, but if all the RINOS in the world decide to become Democrats, you won't have a majority party anymore."

And this would change things how, exactly?

As far as I can see the GOP doesn't have a majority party now.

[ed]

Hmmm.

"I can't imagine he doesn't run with the elephants."

A LOT of conservatives hate McCain almost as much as they despise Hillary. He's made a career of antagonizing conservatives, so it's hard to believe that he'd accomplish anything in a GOP Presidential primary. If he doesn't realise this by now, then he's too much the fool to be President.

And frankly Leiberman is simply gone. No way in hell anyone would bother picking him up as a VP. He simply doesn't bring anything to the table. Jewish people aren't solidly behind him and he doesn't appeal to the Democrats base. He could be useful to a centrist platform, but he doesn't offer that extremely useful military credentials that McCain would.

[Appalled Moderate]

ed:

Majority = Tough on war on terror, no stem cell bill that has its veto overridden, no pullout in Iraq, many a tax cut, bankruptcy bill, no chance of liberal judges being added to the courts.

You don't get everything you want in politics. That's probably a good thing.

BTW, McCain sucked up to Bush to a certain extent in 2004. That had to hurt. Real bad. It's a pretty good indication he intends to be a GOP candidate for the presidency.

[Paul Zrimsek]

Go for it, John-- you'll have everything John Anderson had in 1980. Woo-hoo!

[ed]

Hmmm.

I'm a fiscal conservative and as such I have gotten **nothing**.

As for the *Almost* GWOT, it evidently spans the globe except for the little bit between America and Mexico. I don't view that as a "win" for me. People like to ascribe the AGWOT, again that *Almost*, to conservatives as if that were some sort of prize. It isn't.

"You don't get everything you want in politics. That's probably a good thing."

It would be nice to get *something*. Even in judicial appointments liberals have gotten more judges appointed than conservatives.

For all that cash, energy, activism, volunterring and votes, conservatives have been completely screwed over by the GOP. Liberals have gotten more out of the GOP than conservatives have.

Which of course is why I, and many other conservatives I know, have been returning GOP literature with "Go F*** yourself" on it.

[ed]

Hmmm.

It'll be curious to see how many conservatives are disaffected with the GOP. 2006 might be an extremely bloody year for Republicans.

[Cousin Dave]

I disagree that a McCain-Leiberman ticket would get a free ride from the press now. Leiberman's support for the Iraq war and the GWOT is an unforgivable sin the in eyes of the MSM. And he's already played the Hollywood flip-flop card in 2000; that won't work again.

Leiberman would bring a lot of unwanted MSM attention to the ticket. And once the anal exam starts, they might start to notice things about McCain, like his shady ties to various "charity" organizations, or his attempts to use FCC regulation to blackmail television into giving him more coverage. More to the point, they might start noticing that McCain hasn't got a consistent position on any issue, and will contradict himself at any time depending on what he thinks the audience wants to hear. He'll get stuck with the Kerry flip-flopper tag.

[Bostonian]

I would have voted for Lieberman, but there's no way in hell I'll do that if McCain is on the ticket.

McCain showed his true colors when he dissed the Swift Vets.

Also, we have him to thank for the McCain-Feingold First Amendment Abridgement.

[Tim]

When push comes to shove, most folks will vote their party identity (esp. if Hillary! is the Dem nominee), and independents will vote strategically, further reducing an independent McCain voting base. Funding will be problematic as well, but the real killer will be the electoral college. Which state(s), Red or Blue, goes purple? And are there enough to hit 270 EVs? And if not, what happens in the House to break a tie? Despite earlier posts suggesting a Rep loss of seats in Congress, chances are Reps maintain control of both houses. Smart folks with money will see this and won't place bets on McCain. Distant third and an embarrassing end to what was once a promising career (pre-2000 Hubris Tour). Too bad - he could have been a contender.

[Clint]

Tim-

One niggling point -- if there's a tie in the Electoral College, the current Congress breaks it -- not the incoming one. The Electoral votes are counted in December.

In any case, I hope the buzz is wrong about McCain -- It's possible that he'd actually end up helping the Republican candidate, electorally, but he'd still make things really, really messy.

[Paul A. Miller]

After reading a fair amount of the blogging and columns on a McCain-Lieberman ticket's chances, I've seen a) why many Republicans wouldn't vote for McCain; b) why the media wouldn't give him the "free ride" he gets now; c) why he couldn't mount an effective effort in the battleground states (cash poor) and d) why third party candidates so rarely succeed (Duverger's law). While all these rest on some solid facts, they don't add up to "can't win."

A) McCain doesn't need "many Republicans," just the big-tent moderates. If the GOP nominates a social conservative, he'll own those - maybe 10-15% of the electorate. Mostly, he'll target moderate Democrats, who are likely to feel unwanted in Howard Dean's party - maybe 25-30% of the electorate. Yes, half of all Democrats, and MOST Democrats in swing states which are by their nature middle-of-the-road. That's a minimum of 35-40 percent of potential voters, easily putting McCain-Lieberman in striking range.

B) The media may not give McCain a "free" ride, but they will keep ticket prices low, just to goad conservatives who can't stand McCain. The MSM won't be able to help themselves, even if it hurts the Democratic ticket's chances.

C) This one is true - at present. However, the 2004 Democratic primaries proved the Internet's power as a fundraising tool. Brendan Nyhan says the Internet is not a constituency; true, but it is an ATM.

D) Duverger's Law, as Kaus points out, says nothing about "who" the top two candidates will be. I agree with Mickey that McCain-Lieberman could well push the Democratic ticket into also-ran status. In the above comments, Crank noted Teddy Roosevelt's third-party run. Roosevelt pushed the GOP to also-ran status in 1912, and only a united Democratic Party was able to defeat him. McCain would split both parties, improving his chances.

All the above, of course, depends on what plays out with the Republican and Democratic races after 2006. Still, there is nothing "innate" about the situation which denies McCain the White House.