New Jersey intends to move its primary up to increase its clout in the 2008 Presidential process. The Times does not mention it, so let me add that NJ is a *very* expensive state in which to campaign because of its peculiar television market - the big stations are in Philadelphia and New York, so most of each ad buy is wasted on out-of-state viewers.
Which means? Beats me, but I will Boldly Conclude that early fundraising will be a key to success in 2008. And name recognition won't hurt either.
If a front-loaded schedule with expensive states helps anyone on the Dem side other than Hillary, I can't think of them now.
More important than the money is the fact that NJ is in Hillary's backyard. Now, if Virginia moves up, then one can make a case that Mark Warner gets an advantage.
Posted by: Geek, Esq. | June 24, 2005 at 07:13 PM
Geek, I'm no political analyst or expert, but as a Virginian I believe Mark Warner has a problem with his promises and accompanying tax policy. Could be wrong but he made some very specific promises during the campaign that he promptly broke once in office. He also convinced everyone that we had a major budget shortfall to the tune of about $1.5 billion or so then after passing a major tax increase "found" at least $1 billion of that in "unanticipated" revenues. Of course the actual story is more nuanced I'm sure, but ...
Posted by: Harry Arthur | June 24, 2005 at 10:34 PM
Hmmmm.
Or you could view it as more efficient since you're getting two populations for one price. Either NYC/NJ or Philly/NJ.
Posted by: ed | June 25, 2005 at 09:04 AM
HA:
I defer to your expertise on all things Virginian, with the caveat that every candidate has some baggage.
If not Warner, his colleagues from Tennessee or North Carolina would similarly benefit from a Southern state leading off.
Posted by: Geek, Esq. | June 25, 2005 at 11:47 AM
Geek, true (except for the expertise part), and in the interest of full disclosure I might also add that both the House of Delegates and the Senate in Virginia are under republican control. As you might guess, Gov Warner did not accomplish the tax increase without significant republican help, for which some of us are still, let's just say "disappointed".
Posted by: Harry Arthur | June 25, 2005 at 09:18 PM
The primaries are already too early. The gap between winning the primaries and the convention is already too long. The FEC makes having the conventions earlier "financial suicide" so the only reasoned approach would be to restrict all primaries to be after May 1st. Any candidate announcing prior to Jan 1st should be taken to the House floor and executed by a House member in good standing.
Posted by: Neo | June 25, 2005 at 10:33 PM
Or you could view it as more efficient...
For the Presidential election, sure. Or, if either PA or NY has a primary scheduled nearby, no problem.
Posted by: TM | June 26, 2005 at 12:06 AM