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June 27, 2005

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Tollhouse

I won't believe it until Paul Kennedy issues a new version of his book with an updated chapter detailing how China is going to kick our collective butts.

Half sigma

China has ten times the population of Japan and four times our populuation.

China could easily surpass us as the world's mightiest nation just by having a might/person ratio that's only a quarter of the U.S.

Brainster

Stop the presses! You mean I actually agree with something Matt Yglesias wrote?

Geek, Esq.

"Stop the presses! You mean I actually agree with something Matt Yglesias wrote?"

Well, MY was expressing disagreement with Paul Krugman . . .

D

Color me likewise unimpressed with the panicky furor surrounding CNOOC's bid for Unocal. China's main interest is investment in resources that are in close proximity to their shores. Unocal's largest reserves are in the Pacific rim in and around Indonesia/Borneo. Production from which, I would expect, will largely flow to the Asian economies regardless of who owns the rights to such production. There is little to be concerned about here as regards American energy security. The only relevant question for should be whether it is worth it for Unocal shareholders to take the cashout option now rather than hold the cards another few decades.

Now if CNOOC were bidding for rights to Petro-Canada's oil sands projects in Alberta that's another matter.

BumperStickerist

Hmmm ... more to the point, what effect will this have on the legacy of 'Rising Sun' with Wesley Snipes and Sean Connery along with its contemporary, 'Black Rain' which featured Michael Douglas.

SteveMG

Drezner pointed out an analysis a few months ago showing that in roughly 15-20 years or so that China will have between 200 and 350 million young males with no females to marry.

That's because of sex-selected abortions (ultrasound machines are more prevalent due to the economic growth in the rural areas), China will face something that no other nation in recorded history has confronted. At least not to the degree foreseen here. Obviously, due to war, nations have had shortage of males; but not females.

What this portends is anyone's guess.

SMG

The Kid

So, China will have between 200 and 350 million young males with no females to marry. What’s the impact?

That sounds like something that would be right up Andrew Sullivan’s alley.

What's his position?

TM

China has ten times the population of Japan and four times our populuation.

That was roughly true in 1980 as well, when all the talk was of Japan.

And it is true of India today, which, for lots of reasons, may be the next China (larger working age population, the ghastly imperial legacy which left them a real legal system, and lots of English spoken here are some obvious advantages).

So, China will have between 200 and 350 million young males with no females to marry. What’s the impact?

Go long Internet porn.

SteveMG

"So, China will have between 200 and 350 million young males with no females to marry. What’s the impact? "

So long Internet porn."

Actually, that's a pretty good idea (ahem).

Investing in Chinese internet porn.

We'll make billions. Let's hope China isn't another Asian country that can say no.

Although why do I think the week I invest all of my money in Chinese porn, a couple of Kim Jung-il's nuclear tipped missiles will go off course?

And let it be noted that TM veered this topic off into internet porn.

SMG

richard mcenroe

"So, China will have between 200 and 350 million young males with no females to marry. What’s the impact?

That sounds like something that would be right up Andrew Sullivan’s alley.

What's his position?"

I believe it's, "Cover me, I'm going in!"

tollhouse

"So, China will have between 200 and 350 million young males with no females to marry. What’s the impact?"

The impact? I think everyone knows what the impact will be. Do you think they'll try to engage in some International Wife Raid? No, more simply, they'll tear their own country apart. You can't just turn 250 million males into an army and you can't expect that size of an army to be anything but tactical nuke bait. No, the Middle Kingdom is going to tear itself apart, again.

Cecil Turner

"What’s the impact?"

One obvious outcome is that the population of India will pass theirs sooner than it otherwise would.

The Kid

To assure the total degeneration of this thread, might I suggest that investing in all the sin industries that cater to guys’ needs and desires might be the best move? How about a Sin Activity Mutual Fund that might include pornography, alcohol, and tobacco products. Heck, throw in fireworks – guys like that stuff and China makes oodles of the stuff.

The only sin product category that you might want to avoid is smokeless tobacco products like Copenhagen and Skoal – Confucius is reported to have said once “Many man smoke, but Fu Manchu.”

SteveMG

Let me correct the above figure of between 200 and 350 million young men.

According to the author of the study - Nicholas Eberstadt with a link to his study below:

http://www.policyreview.org/feb04/eberstadt.html

"[P]erhaps 15 percent or more — may find themselves essentially “unmarriageable” on the mainland in the coming decades."

The 15 percent or more is of "young Chinese men", not the entire population. My error.

Trying to guess from the various charts he provides, it looks to me like we're talking about approximately 50-70 million young "unmarriageable" men. Still a remarkable figure.

Eberstadt added that:
"The world has never before seen the likes of the bride shortage that will be unfolding in China in the decades ahead, so it is difficult to imagine its many reverberations. Some commentators have warned that this “surplus of males” will make for a “deficit of peace,” pushing China toward a more martial international posture".

Interesting piece. He mentions that India will also experience a similar trend albeit to a smaller degree.

SMG


TM

Surplus males sent towar? I find that a bit dubious, since for elderly Chinese, their son is their Social security (I read somewhere that the de facto one son policy meant China would never go to war again).

Here is a bold sociological prediction - China will import (non-Chinese) women, thereby providing wives, mothers, and elder-care.

For example, Thai girls sold to the sex trade will instead marry Chinese.

This will make China more outward looking and friendlier to its neighbors. (Well, depends on the women in question, I guess).

hey, maybe.

ed

Hmmm.

1. There are already an estimated 70 million unmarrigable Chinese men.

2. The population imbalance amongst grade school kids, in the Ghangzhou area, 143 to 1. I.e. 143 boys for every 100 girls, and this discrepency is increasing.

3. A great many North Korean women are being specifically imported/smuggled to become brides, voluntarily or otherwise.

4. Because of the massive drop in childbirths, due to the "one child" rule, there is a tremendous "hump" in the Chinese demographics. This corresponds with the BabyBoomer generation here in America. What this means is that in about twenty years the average age in China will be around 50 years old. This calculation does NOT include the progressive and cumulative effects of increasing gender imbalance.

5. Who knows what's going to happen? It just looks very bad.

byrd

In addition to a sin mutual fund, we may want to invest in chinese women--they'll be selling at a premium one day soon.

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