If I were A Different Man... (Or Woman)

The Times and WaPo are breaking news on the Plame case.  My long reaction is below, but let me highlight this - if, I say IF, I had been blogging about the jail house visits between Bolton and Miller last August, and IF I had recently blogged that the case was starting to shake loose, and that Bolton and his Chief of Staff might be involved, I would be deeply fascinated by this nugget from the Times.  The subject is Libby's waiver of confidentiality and the negotiations about whether it was voluntary:

Ms. Miller authorized her lawyers to seek further clarification from Mr. Libby's representatives in late August, after she had been in jail for more than a month.

Look, I have to focus on finding a way to stop David Ortiz, and I have poo-poohed this Bolton connection too often to get on board now.  However, at this writing, the Bolton connection is MIA...

Now, is the Bolton theory quashed and Judy exonerated by reports in both the WaPo and Times that Libby told Miller about Plame's role in sending Wilson?  Hey, it's not my theory, but the news about Libby hardly answers the question of whether other people also told Miller about Plame. 

And suppose, in their conversation, Libby said "I heard this about Plame", and Miller replied, "Yes, but did you also know this, and this, and this"?  Ms. Miller had worked on WMD issue for years, and may have learned about Ms. Plame over those years.

One would expect that, under her subpoena, she would have to admit to having passed info to Libby; if Fitzgerald wants to learn the source of her knowledge, she may be right back in hot water.

Here we go - a quick summary of our guesses as to why Ms. Miller pitched in the towel and struck a deal:

(1)  Jail's a bitch, even if you are.... well, look, the threat of jail is meant to provide motivation, and we are not all Susan MacDougal.  Maybe a month as First Amendment hero was plenty.

(2)  It's all about Delay.  No, not Tom!  Perhaps Ms. Miller figured that after she testified about Libby, Fitzgerald would be back with another subpoena and more awkward questions about her other sources.  DoJ guidelines require him to exhaust other reasonable means before compelling a reporter's testimony, but if she had testified a year ago, Fitzgerald might have had time to do that.  Now, his grand jury is nearing its term (although it can be extended), and (maybe) the public is nearing the end of its patience.

At this point, if her testimony leaves loose ends, Fitzgerald may decide to leave them loose.  Or at least, that may be her hope - if her testimony corroborates Libby, Fitzgerald may wrap this up, move on, and leave unexplored the question of what she knew and how she knew it.

(3)  The Bolton connection, noted above.

It beats me.  She fought legal appeals for almost a year, spent a month in jail and then authorized her attorney to find out if Libby's waiver was voluntary?  Cooper's attorney was very quick to call and negotiate as the jail date approached.  The attorneys for Russert, Kessler, and Pincus struck deals a year ago.  Maybe her original attorney, Floyd Abrams, really just wanted to argue a big First Amendment case.

Comments

[Jeff]

Okay, if you don't have a definitive theory, I guess I don't have to.

[BurbankErnie]

My take FWIW is that Miller knew more than anyone regarding Plame AND Wilson. Plame AND Wilson were Miller's main Sources, and she spoke to other Reporters (Cooper, Novak, etc.) who CONFIRMED through the WH Admin.

Sample: NOVAK: "Scooter, why would Dick send Wilson to Africa?"
SCOOTER: "I heard it was Wilson's Wife who works for the CIA that offered him up."

Hey, it could happen.

My take, FWIW.

[BurbankErnie]

Oops.

Please substitute COOPER with NOVAK in my "sample" conversation.

many apologies....

[Appalled Moderate]

Washington Post says Libby was not a Novak source. Could be a lie, but if Libby leaked to him, why not admit it, when all manner of other coversations have been admitted.

Not a small deal, people. We have a third player, and no obvious suspects.

It's time for Ellery Queen to pose the challenge to the reader. Who leaked the name of Valerie Plame to Robert Novak? It's not Rove (he's Novak's second source, as the first source was "no partisan gunslinger"). Per WaPo, it's not Libby.

There's a third man here, and it isn't orson welles.

Since TM has no theory to criticize, let the speculation run amok.

[Geek, Esq.]

TM:

You forgot the theory that Judy WANTED to go to jail to save her reputation as a journalist and land that book deal.

Miller is a narcissist, and this kind of circus is her bag, baby.

[jerry]

You guys won't like this but Wayne Masden is reporting, in a very interesting article, that Libby may soon flip on Cheney (http://www.waynemadsenreport.com/).

Might explain why Libby "really" released Miller.

[Geek, Esq.]

Wayne Madsen has less credibility than the Powerline guys.

[TM]

You forgot the theory that Judy WANTED to go to jail

Well, it is *sort of* built into the First Amendment hero theory, although I toyed with separating them. Three theories seemed like plenty, since some people (cough) Jeff (Cough) don't even have one.

As to Navak's original source - I'll accept the consensus that Rove was Novak's second source. In a subsequent post I point out a groundswell for Tenet or McLaughlin at the CIA, but I am stumped.

[TM]

OK, the Madsen piece is speculation without evidence, but this was worth the visit:

For weeks, there have been rumors inside the Beltway that something big would be announced about the case during the last weeks of September. The silence and lack of substantial leaks were indications that a major turn of events would soon occur.

That is EXACTLY the strategy I used to employ to get dates with the hot chicks on Saturday night! Weeks of being ignored by them could only mean they were waiting by the phone for me to call.

Oh, well. Back in reality, Fitzgerald has not leaked for months, other than the flurry in July.

[Jim E.]

"Fitzgerald has not leaked for months, other than the flurry in July."

Wasn't that Rove and Fleischer who were leaking? I don't recall Fitzgerald's "flurry" of leaks.

[topsecretk9]

the conventional wisdom always leads to the leakers being on the Admin inside...but I suspect that in Judy's case the info was coming to her in her own backyard...the mystery is that she didn't write a word...Novak tapped it out and Wilson got a hint it was coming and Pincus got it out too...

The mystery lies in what Judy was assigned with writing. These reporters knew the whole story and were massaging the admin's to get sources quotes.

This whole farce of anonymous sources is silly. The reporters all along have all been their own sources and the game of who told who is just to cover their own informed asses.

Is it not a stretch to believe that theses reporters knew MORE of the story on Wilson and his wife than Admin people? No.

This is what makes me sick about the media. This whole charade of suspense and confusion and parsing is so stupid.

[John Gillnitz]

Now if you really want to get into tin foil hat territory:

Miller started talking because of DeLay's indictment, or more specifically the indictment and the arrest of DeLay Inc.'s hit men ( http://www.cnn.com/2005/LAW/09/27/florida.murder.ap/ ). She had previously been afraid for life as the scandal goes all the way to the top (ie Cheney).

[pete]

My theory is that she wanted to be a journalistic martyr to try to get her reputation back.

She was seen by a lot of people as Bush's poodle for writing several uncritical articles supporting the reality of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. What better way to show that you are a Real Journalist(tm) than by spending a few months in prison for not revealing a source?

[Earl F. Parrish]

Colin Powell is Novak's original source. He is the least partisan of all the potential sources.

[Jeff]

TM - So first of all, I missed your post of 10:54, and I have to say I feel persecuted: it wasn't me (the bothersome guy who posts around here about Plame etc a bunch) who made the first post here about not having a theory. But I wasn't going to point that out, since last time I did such a thing, you made fun of me. So there you go.

For what it's worth, I go with a combination of one -- jail is persuasive coercion -- and your last suggestion regarding the lawyer switch, with a slight twist sympathetic to Abrams. Judy wants to get out of jail, they bring in a new lawyer who goes back over things and recontacts Tate. Tate tells him they already gave a waiver, they really meant it etc etc and things go on from there. Tate, however, leaves out the crucial piece of information that even as he told Abrams a while ago that Libby released Miller, Tate/Libby also thought the general waiver was inherently coercive. So Abrams and Miller interpret that as ambiguous at best. Why do Tate and Libby do this? To run out the clock as much as possible, of course.

[TM]

Interesting point that a new lawyer lets both sides enage in some face-saving finger-pointing. Can we say that the Abrams/Tate relationship was stuck on stupid?

Jack Shafer is good on this - he thinks it was a jail thing.

Can we really believe 1) that Miller misunderstood the original deal Tate conveyed to Abrams; or 2) that she and her lawyer missed the Time and Meet the Press revelations that Libby was willing to talk?

What's more likely is that Miller was tiring of jail after her 12-week stay—and who wouldn't be?— and that she conveniently "rediscovered" Libby's offer once Fitzgerald threatened her anew with criminal contempt charges, obstruction of justice, and extension of the grand jury, which could have given her 18 months more to stew in her cell.

[clarice]

Why do the stories keep saying this case proves we need a federal shield law? To my mind it underscroes the danger of having one. These reporters all seem to have had better sources that Rove or Libby, sat on this knowledge, knew neither one of them violated the law, and their editors certainly did as well.

And yet, they let that liar Wilson tar them with his phony charges and let them swing in the wind while they played at protecting their sources.

Wouldn't a federal shield law only increase the number of partisan attacks under circumstnces where those charged had no reasonable way to respond?

Wouldn't a federal shield law have to create an exception for classified information(not that there was any here )?

Would you trust a press which still glorifies Rather and Mapes as seekers of truth?

PHEH..

[JJ]

I think BurbankE hath hit it.

It was Miller connected to Plame AND Wilson.

[opine6]

JJ is correct.

Miller has been writing authoritatively about WMD for far too long, not to have a source inside the CIA. I remember seeing her on TV a lot during the run-up to the war, and being described as a WMD expert. I believe she also wrote a book on the subject.

The NYT was trying to screw Bush again, and it backfired on them.

[Barry]

opine6, the problem is that Miller was writing authoritatively but incorrectly about WMD's. If she was pitching the truth, she wouldn't have written those stories. If she was pitching the CIA's line, she wouldn't have written those stories.

[vch]

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