Ride A Strong Horse

We're talking Yankee baseball, but we will start by giving props to David Ortiz - Big Papi, with the rep as the best clutch hitter in baseball, hit the tying homerun in the eighth inning of a must-win game for the Red Sox, and then delivered the game-winning RBI in the ninth.

The statistical case for A Rod as MVP is strong, based on the all-encompassing Win Shares.  And A Rod has not lacked for clutch hits this season.

However, fans of Ortiz will want to compare situational stats.  With no one on base, Ortiz has hit .285; with men on, that rises to .313; with runners in scoring position, .348; and with runners in scoring position and two out, .357.

A Rod does not look nearly as good by this measure - his comparable figures are .338 with the bases empty; with men on, .302; with runners in scoring position, .290; and with runners in scoring position and two out, .302.

Which means nothing - the next three (or four!) games will settle this.  And I stand by my view from 1978, when Jim Rice of the Sox had a monster year at the plate while Ron Guidry had a "Can't touch this" year on the hill - the Sox could have managed to achieve second place without Rice, but the Yankees never could have won without Guidry.

We have moved from the Summer of Fear to the Autumn of Anxiety; as the weather cools the leaves will show their solidarity with the Sox by turning to red.  Then both the leaves and the hopes of Red Sox Nation will flutter to the ground.  Away we go.

MORE:  A Rod normally says the right things:

Ortiz, a designated hitter who has 47 homers and 146 runs batted in this year - and who had the game-winning hit on Thursday night in Boston's 5-4 victory over visiting Toronto, on top of a home run - has been outspoken about why he thinks that a full-time D.H. should receive equal consideration for the M.V.P.

Rodriguez, a third baseman who has 47 homers and 128 R.B.I, has not campaigned as much for the award, which could be decided when the Yankees and the Red Sox finish the season with a three-game series that starts Friday.

In fact, when Rodriguez was told earlier this month that Ortiz had been discussing the M.V.P., he offered a short response.

"Let him have it," Rodriguez said. "I already have one of those. I want what he has."

Comments

[Geek, Esq.]

Two other things about A-Rod vs. Papi:

1) The obvious--defensively, A-Rod is an asset in the field, while Papi is a liability the Sox hide at the DH spot.

2) A-Rod also stole 20 bags this year.

That said, it'll come down to this weekend.

[Forbes]

Is it possible that the American League could have a MVP that might regularly sit on the bench in the National League?

Is it possible that a sport admired for its multi-talented atheletes would honor a one-dimensional player?

Or is this merely a circle jerk by sportwriters in need of filling column inches--realizing that while Ortiz is the Most Dangerous Batter, that alone doesn't earn MVP awards?

[Charles McLean]

First, Big Papi actually plays first base pretty well. The Red Sox have two capable players who regularly play that position -- Millar and Olerud -- but when the Sox play National League teams at their home parks, Ortiz does very nicely at first, thank you. Second point: MVP should mean just that. Ortiz is the most valuable player in the American League because he makes more of a decisive difference in the outcome of games than any player in the League. He is a tie-breaker, a walk-off homer hitter, a game-changer. He deserves to be MVP.

[Frobins]

Would A-Rod loose points in the MVP race if his fielding was poor? Then you have to give him credit for the gold glove caliber third baseman he has been since the All-Star break. That A-Rod contributes to his team in the field as well as in the batters box is why he is more valuable than Ortiz.

[kim]

What Would James Do?
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[rachel]

go papi