Better To Be Wrong Than Gutless

If my blog hosting service is willing, I will post my *PURELY SPECULATIVE* guesses in the Plame leak investigation:

Karl Rove walks - no indictment, nada.  Jeralyn Merritt, who has been doing a superb job on this, keeps the flame flickering for a "False statements" charge based on Rove's early forgettery of his conversation with Matt Cooper of TIME.  Based on the evidence leaked so far, it won't happen. 

Think back to the controversial Martha Stewart case: Martha went down on a false statements charge, but as supporting evidence of her criminal intent the prosecution had evidence that she may have altered her records, supplemented by troubling testimony from her broker's assistant and a personal friend.

With Rove, as best we know, we have Karl failing to recall his conversation with Matt Cooper when asked by Federal investigators in 2003; the defense will have fun with the fact that the Department of Justice failed to ask about contacts with Matt Cooper in their original document request, so let's not underestimate Mike Copper Matt Cooper's forgettability.

Eventually, in response to a second set of subpoenas, the relevant email between Rove and Hadley was found, Rove's attorney notified the Special Counsel, and Rove corrected his testimony.  As Jeralyn notes, and as MacRanger pointed out to me a few days back, if a person corretcs their testimony during the term of a grand jury before discovery was imminent, they are in good shape. 

Based on the leaks so far, this is far from a Martha Stewart scenario.

OK, on to the fall guys:

John Hannah had CIA links, so he can't convincingly plead ignorance about Ms. Plame's status.  He gets a wrist slap for misuse of classified information.  (Q:  Does a "wrist slap" mean "no jail time", or "short time"?  A: Hmm, even "short" would seem long to me; no waffling here... No jail time it is.  And get your own 8-Ball).  Hannah's offense - he was Novak's primary source.

David Wurmser also has CIA links, and he gets a wrist slap for leaking to Walter Pincus of the WaPo.

And Libby?  He goes to trial, or walks.  My full psychic prediction is that he will turn down a plea deal (after negotiating about what might have been disclosed in the accompanying indictment) and say to Fitzgerald, "Bring it on, Irish".

*If* they are filed, charges will be perjury and obstruction, as well as a conspiracy to misuse classified info.  However, Fitzgerald has very serious doubts about some of his star witnesses, such as Judy Miller.  Both sides are weighing the implications of the venue for a trial - Libby knows it won't be Berkeley, but it still might not be favorable for him.  However, it might be politically awkward for Libby to ask for a change in venue.  Of course, getting tossed into stir can be awkward, too.

No waffling: Libby goes to trial.  The good news with this scenario is that otherwise, we will never know what the heck happened.  Libby better plan to win, or lose, by Jan 19, 2009.

Final predictions - today is Wednesday, and if the Astros win the Series they will need seven games.  There - I can't be all wrong.

FWIW:  Last night there was a bit of a "Rove rally" at TradeSports.  Well, "rally" for Sinister Righties - the market odds of a Rove indictment fell to about 45%.  Libby was holding tough at around an 80% probability of indictment.

Currently, as of Wednesday morning: the probability of a Rove indictment is at 63%; Libby is at 76%.

OK - folks who want to back my play should SELL the Rove contract, which is headed to zero; profit will be a full $6.30 per contract.

Buy the Libby contract and try to pocket the difference when the contract rises from 76 to 100, for a profit of $3.40 per contract.

And ideas for clever spread trades?  Maybe buy two Libbys for each sale of Rove, figuring there is no way that Rove is indicted and Libby walks?  Very clever, but we don't give investment advice here, we just speculate.  For educational purposes only, of course.

MORE:  Folks who want to mock Rove's memory will want to be ready for push back on "Arkansas Alzheimer's", based on the memoery challenges experienced by Hillary and Bill in less happy times.

It doesn't have to be this way - people forget, they hedge, and they caveat their testimony, OK?

...BUT NOT FORGOTTEN:  Hey, what about Ari Fleischer and Stephen Hadley?  These two did not quite make it from the short list to the Final Predictions, but they are strong also-rans.

Ari Fleischer was reported to have read the famous INR memo on board Air Force One, and apparently a call from Novak to Fleischer turned up in the White House logs, so he certainly could be a source for Novak (or Pincus).  And a recent hint aids his candidacy - per TIME, Novak's source is not in the White House.

However, he left the Administration the day Novak's column ran, so the impact of an indictment more than two years later will be, ahh, diminished.  What will the press do, insist that the White House hire Ari back so that he can resign in disgrace?  And what will the press do with all their stories about Bush harboring miscreants lo these many years?

As to Hadley, well, he is certainly a popular pick as a source for Novak, or Pincus, and he was deeply enmeshed in the leaks and counter leaks surrounding Bush's "16 Words".

However, would the White House promote him to the fairly visible post of National Security Advisor (Condi's old job) with an obvious legal cloud over his head?

The folks who gave his John Roberts and Ben Bernanke would not.  On the other hand, the folks who gave us Harriet Miers might do just that. 

Well, we don't duck the tough calls here - Hadley won't be on Fitzgerald's list (but if he is, don't be surprised, and remember, I almost told you so.)

Comments

[Benny Mailroomguy]

I know as much about this case as the Press (i.e. nothing). And I believe your predictions seem reasonable.

[Go Metro]

I'm with Benny. I put a lot more stock in TM's speculation than I do the MSM's.

My only concern is that Fitzgerald isn't prepared to cash in his 15 minutes. If not and all the fawning articles have not softened him up, then I really think there is nothing there.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Former carpenter returns to the Northwest (to look for work) and changes his story again:

' During an interview Tuesday, Wilson, who once worked as a carpenter in Sequim and enjoys visiting the Northwest, cast the imbroglio in personal terms. While political pundits contend the leak investigation is really about how President Bush took the nation to war, Wilson said the experience has pitted him and his wife against the most powerful people in the United States.

' "The case is not about taking the Bush administration to task," said Wilson, but rather an attack on his civil rights. '

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2002583813_wilson26.html

[j.west]

If this is final prediction day, I will stick with the scenario that Joe and Valerie get indicted for misuse of classified documents.

The “unanticipated shift”, Joe’s “misspeaking”, the total absence of pro-administration leak/spin, the ease in granting a special prosecutor, the total cooperation of the White House and the fabled Rovian patience in setting up the media all point to a blockbuster surprise.

People love a good mystery with a great twist in the ending. This week they will get one.

[cathyf]

Am I missing something, or is it true that this week we have Wilson begging for push-back help on DU, but the Administration types have gone silent except for calling MSNBC's bluff last night? If it's true that Wilson is out there initiating spin, while the Administration is sitting tight except for reaction mode against specific things, maybe it's because Wilson has more to worry about than anyone in the Administration?

Or maybe it just means that everyone in the Administration is smarter than Wilson, and knows when to keep their mouths shut...

My tea leaves are Bigelow Decaf Constant Comment. Your mileage will vary depending on your brand I suppose... (I also use tea in bags, which horrifies purists, I know. Perhaps this affects their soothsaying utility.)

cathy :-)

[The Unbeliever]

Except that I wouldn't really call this a "good mystery"; really more of an annoying, drawn-out one badly in need of editing. Depending on the outcome, it's a medicore mystery at best.

[kim]

TU: Hitchcockian suspense, though.

cf: Put a little mint in the tea.

Joe's civil right's? Well the standard of evidence doesn't have to be so high, so I guess that's a fit.
=========================================

[jerry]

Predictable.

[topsecretk9]

An additional quibble about Martha,,,was she not offered to fess up to he lie and pay a fine?

Patrick- He also said recently he had no idea he would cause a fire storm

Also, if Wilson does not go down, does that mean Walter Pincus has Tourette's Syndrome with his little hit the other day?

[Syl]

We don't know one word of either Hannah's or Wurmser's testimony. Neither do we know what Novak and Pincus said.

We ain't got much to go on here. It seems that they're just default candidates?

For all we know it could be Judy.

[Sue]

Interesting...

You have permission to be surprised if a constitutional officer is formally listed as an unindicted co-conspirator.

You have permission to be surprised if the word "forgeries" appears in any indictment.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=156238>ABC News: The Note

[BurbankErnie]

Joe The Liar Wilson, wife, and CIA Flackies headed for Indictments. I will also throw in a couple of MSM Hacks, er, High Paid MSM Hacks and an Editor or two. WH is unscathed. Left is in an uproar, calling for a Revolution. Chris Matthews Head explodes on Live TV, as David Schuster sobs like a little girl. CNN goes black. FOX reports and we decide. John Kerry denounces Fitzgerald as a Partisan Hack planted by Rove. Err America finally files Chapter 11.

My predictions, if you will. By Friday. Or not.

[boris]

Hot damn a new thread !!!

Nada. It's all been a giant stalking horse for Condi and Goss.

[jukeboxgrad]

I'm posting this here since prior threads seem to be choking Typepad (too many comments, probably).

Major Combs: "a 'covert' agent who was no longer covert"

Judge Hogan said "the information she [Miller] was given and her potential use of it was a crime" (link). I think "information" means "information about Plame" (let me know if you have a reason to think Hogan is talking about something else).

Hogan seems to think Plame was covert. Hogan has seen page-after-page of secret evidence. But I guess you know more than he does.

"They filed an amicus curiae brief"

Too bad Hogan et al were singularly unimpressed. Hence Miller went to jail.

"More proof is readily available."

How interesting that not a single source (named or otherwise) has come forward to proclaim where and how they ever heard such a thing, pre-Novak.

TM: "Jon H will now deliver the proof of the opposite."

Please review what I just said to Major Combs.

"Similarly, I'll bet that Ms. Plame's former status as a covert agent was still classified, but that she was not covert in an IIPA sense."

You're suggesting her covertness was just some kind of bureaucratic technicality. Then please explain why Hogan et al apparently treated the matter with great seriousness.

[TM]

Hey, I may have a friend at The Note:

Not everything about Fitzgerald can be divined from his relationship with cats — but almost everything.

I agree.

[jukeboxgrad]

Cecil: "covertness unknown"

Even if true, that doesn't matter. Unless they were "certain" (SF-312's language) she was unclassified, they were obliged to check first.

Florida: "Tenet confirmed that Wilson's wife worked for the CIA in June - so what! The question is did they leak her identity as a covert operative - Valerie Plame."

You're suggesting there's some meaningful difference between "Wilson's wife" and "Valerie Plame." There isn't. Even Luskin finally admitted this.

[DirtyName]

I know Rove's a manipulative genius when it comes to the MSM, but I just can't see that many leaking lawyers making up lies to the media.

After all, the media KNOWS Karl is a genius. They are wary of him. Thus, they aren't going to trust much coming from any attorneys representing the WH staff...

The MSM will double-source their leaks (one would think), and at least one of those leaks should theoretically come from the prosecutor's office.

Of course, The Fitz is a Republican. So maybe he knows there's no WH culpability and is participating in a WH coordinated blow-out of the MSM. But I don't think so.

That leaves us with the very real possibility that there is a grain of truth to all the leaks. Therefore, Libby is likely looking at some trouble, as well as Hannah and Wurmser.

So the media gets to blast the WH, but in the end, this whole stupid story boils down to another pitched battle between left vs. right instead of right vs. wrong.

Here's hoping the 1 Rove short for every two Libby longs is a loser, and that the right play is to short Rove and Libby.

[Jane Smith]

Will any lefties on the board please give there feelings about a Libby indictment (an maybe some other no-names) but no Rove indictment? Would you still consider that a "win"? Or is anything less than Rove frog marched out of the WH a loss?

Thanks.

[clarice]

Posted by veronica

The Note (ABC) ^ | 10-26-05 | MARK HALPERIN, DAVID CHALIAN, TEDDY DAVIS, IMTIYAZ DELAWALA, KATIE HINMAN, SARAH BAKER, KELLEY PREMO
ABC News' Jason Ryan has this guidance from a Justice Department official: NO ANNOUNCEMENT FROM FITZGERALD IS EXPECTED TODAY. (Though, it should be Noted, that it is possible that the grand jury could return an indictment today placed under seal — or there could be a myriad of non-announcement developments.) ABC News' Ann Compton reports that Karl Rove and Scooter Libby were both present and accounted for at the daily senior staff meeting at the White House this morning.

[JayDee]

The Fitz is a Republican.

Untrue. He's a very rare bird - so independent he keeps his political registration at "unaffiliated".

I'm happy to see the "Wilson will be indicted" nuts are still out and about.

[clarice]

My predictions--no indictments for Libby or Rove..As to Wilson and Plame and members of her group, if no indictments at least continuing investigation of them or referral over to USDA..

[steve sturm]

I'm sticking with my prediction of no indictments.

Since Fitzgerald has been waiting on Miller to testify about her conversations with Libby, let's assume Fitzgerald has had all that he needed to move against everybody else... and hasn't done so. If he was going to go after, for example, Wilson for leaking classified information, why would Fitzgerald wait until such time as Miller finally agreed to testify and he wrapped up everything with Libby. The same logic applies to others involved as well, including Rove.

And, as far as Libby, I'm sticking with my belief that pre-Miller testimony, Fitzgerald didn't have enough to indict Libby (if he had, why would have pursued Miller's testimony so hard?), and with Libby wanting Miller to testify isn't what I would expect from a guy expecting, or even thinking, Miller would implicate him.

I could be wrong, but....

[Jay]

I've been reading through your posts and comments, and I have no idea what's going to happen.

However, wouldn't it be hilarious if Fitzgerald just comes out this week and says, "Guys, I've been investigating this for 2 years, and I'm totally confused. I have no idea what happened. So, I'm not gonna indict anyone. Sorry for wasting all your time."

Half the commentors on this web site would explode, and Tom M would probably fly to DC to personally strangle Fitzgerald.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

'An additional quibble about Martha,,,was she not offered to fess up to he lie and pay a fine?'

Reportedly, yes, but since she hadn't committed any crime, she declined to do so.

Since Fitz worked in the Southern District of NY's office (where Martha was prosecuted) I'm guessing some of their habits rubbed off onto him. So, I expect that there will be some indictments for lying to investigators or obstruction of an investigation. Of whom, I don't know.

What would be delicious is if the Appeals Court overturns Martha's convictions shortly after Fitz gets indictments along the same lines as on Martha. A decision on her appeal is long overdue.

[Jane Smith]

Referral to the "USDA"? Aren't they the ones who grade meat?

[Keith]

Prediction: nothing for Rove, slap on the wrist for Libby, a couple of low-level people get indicted on more serious stuff, and there are some indictments/slaps on the wrist for some people in the media and CIA.

[Cecil Turner]

If Fitz is actually checking on the status of Plame's covertness, doesn't that imply he's looking at an IIPA issue? Does any other charge require she actually be covert? (And yet, that seems implausible . . .)

[CaseyL]

One thing I hope comes out of this that I think everyone here can agree on: an end to the lazy-assed, CYA, "anonymous source" leak-dependent reporting that comprises just about *all* political reporting at this point.

Columnists and reporters who've been whining about 'a chilling effect' on journalism get zero sympathy from me. Transcribing talking points, without background or attribution, without fact-checking or challenge, isn't "journalism." It's stenography.

Leaks are useful, because they're supposed to point you to information you didn't know existed and now should be able to track down. Leaks are where you start, not where you stop.

Anonymous sourcing is supposed to protect whistle-blowers revealing malfeasance from retribution from the powerful. Anonymous sourcing is not for sliming the whistle-blowers and protecting the powerful.

[Anonymous Liberal]

You're a brave man to make predictions amidst all this uncertainty. I largely agree with you, though. My one difference is that I still think Rove will be indicted (or plea to a misdemeanor). I think there may be other inconsistencies in his testimony in addition to the ones related to Cooper. Remember, he spent 4 1/2 hours in front of the grand jury last week. That had to be about more than his two minute conversation with Cooper.

I think Rove is in less trouble than the people in the Vice President's office, but I still think he is in some trouble. The meeting between Luskin and Fitzgerald yesterday may have been to negotiate a plea. Who knows, though, right?

[steve sturm]

Cecil: given this started (at least in the press) as an IIPA investigation, wouldn't you have expected Fitzpatrick to nail down the question of whether Plame was or wasn't covert a long time ago? I find it hard to believe that someone as good as Fitzgerald wouldn't have realized until just before the end of the grand jury that if Plame's neighbors knew she worked in the CIA that he might not have much of a case... and that he better send out the FBI to check on that before he filed indictments, only to be embarrassed later.

[kim]

A question BRings itself Scherendipitously: Was Saddam seeking Yellow Cake in Africa?
================================================

[clarice]

Isn't it odd that everyone is trying to read tea leaves about unauthorized leaks of classified documents and keeps ignoring what is in plain view?

Joseph A. Wilson consistently told reporters he'd seen the forged documents from Niger and noted that the names and dates on them were wrong and therefore he knew they were inauthentic. He testified in the same vein to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (SSCI). When the Committee noted that we had not received those documents until eight months after his Mission, Wilson changed his testimony. As the members who filed an Additional Views Report observed, that statement made under oath was also at odds with the facts:
From the Additional Views report of the SSCI:

[quote]The former ambassador told Committee staff that he, in fact, did not have access to any of the names and dates in the CIA's reports and said he may have become confused about his own recollection after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in March 2003 that the names and dates on the documents were not correct. Of note, the names and dates in the documents that the IAEA found to be incorrect were not names or dates included in the CIA reports. [/quote] http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/congress/2004_rpt/iraq-wmd-intell_pat-roberts.htm

It would thus appear that he DID have access to the names and dates in the CIA reports, which means either (a) he had unauthorized access to classified CIA documents, received 8 moinths after his Mission or (b) he saw them before the CIA did.

[cathyf]

Referral to the "USDA"? Aren't they the ones who grade meat?

Seems only fair, considering that Miller told Libby that "Victoria Flame" worked for the "Bureau" of Land Management...

(There is a certain "Who's On First" element to the whole kurfuffle, after all.)

cathy :-)

[owl]

Fritz will handcuff Wilson to Matthews and frog-march them out of the MSNBC studio. The Media will assume they are traveling to link up Miss Judy. Media finds religion, they pray Wilson doesn't talk. Or-as clarice said--at least Wilson will be turned over to USDA.

[kim]

C: We have V quoted with 'crazy story' in 2/02. No docs until sometime later. Joe is lying here, maybe others, and Joe indubitably lies elsewhere. Plus he's a scaredy-cat, or in the pay of the Jihad.
===============================================

[Trained Auditor]

ALERT..ALERT

The Los Angeles Times chose a Democrat Party contributor to quote in it's article today describiing Fitzgerald's investigators questioning the neighbors of Plame and Wilson about their knowledge of Plame's CIA association. It calls into question whether his recollection is representative of the neighbors. The Times uses the information in it's article to refocus their spotlight on Karl Rove.

Here's the quote from the L.A. Times article:

"But neighbors contacted by The Times said they told the FBI agents that they had no idea of her agency life, and that they knew her as a mother of twins who worked as an energy consultant.

The agents "made it clear they were part of the Fitzgerald investigation, and they were basically tying up loose ends," said David Tillotson, a lawyer and neighbor who was among those interviewed Monday.

"They really only had one interest, and that was to know whether Valerie's identity, on what she did for a living, was known prior to the Novak article. It seemed they were trying to establish clearly that prior to the Novak article she was not widely known on the cocktail circuit," Tillotson said.

"And I pointed out, we were good friends, we socialized with them, and we just had no idea" until her status was made public in the Novak column, Tillotson said. "To that moment, we had no idea whatsoever that Valerie did anything for the government."" - Los Angeles Times, "Focus of Prosecutor in CIA Leak Inquiry Appears to Shift to Rove", October 26, 2005.

According to opensecrets.org, Tillotson (including through his wife) coontributed $2000 to John Kerry, and $500 to the DNC Services Corp, in the 2004 election:

TILLOTSON, DAVID
WASHINGTON,DC 20007
SELF EMPLOYED/ATTORNEY
4/30/2004
$2,000
Kerry, John

Tillotson, David Mrs
Washington,DC 20007
Self/Attorney
9/21/2004
$250
DNC Services Corp

Tillotson, David Mr
Washington,DC 20007
Self/Attorney
9/21/2004
$250
DNC Services Corp
The link to the contributions is here http://opensecrets.org/indivs/search.asp?NumOfThou=0&txtName=Tillotson&txtState=DC&txtZip=&txtEmploy=&txtCand=&txt2006=Y&txt2004=Y&txt2002=Y&Order=N

Interestingly, note how ABC NEWS The Note cleverly introduces the Tillotson quote in their pointer to the L.A. Times Article today:

"According to one neighbor who is clearly well-schooled in the investigation..." - ABC News The Note, Octoberr 25, 2005

[j.west]

Clarice, That is exactly my point (Joe misspeaking) in the prediction that Joe and Val are going down.

I agree that little items like this and the “unanticipated shift” have not been addressed. If indictments come down as the bulk of Plame watchers predict, it would be fully in line with the original outline of the investigation, without any “shift”. Therefore, either there is a different direction to this thing or Judge Tatel was just kidding.

[A.C.]

I agree with Steve Sturm. I find it incredible the FBI would wait until the 11th hour to talk to Plame's neighbors (assuming that's actually the first time). Fitzgerald would know upfront whether Plame was covert or not, therefore seems to suggest jurors might have some question regards Wilson's testimony.

[BurbankErnie]

More predictions:

Clooney and Steven Soderbergh buy the Movie Rights to "A Plame to Remember". Clooney plays Fitz. Brad Pitt plays Wilson (Joe the Liar) and Pamela Anderson plays Val Flame.

The ending is changed so that instead of the Wilsons being incarcerated, Rove, (played by Beelzebob) Cheney, (played by Al Franken) and Bush (Played by Jon Stewart) are sent to Guantanimo Bay, which has been given back to Fidel Castro (played by Fidel himself) and forced to turn "Islam".

Whatever happens, I will be glad it is over. No poster on this board will flip out. The facts will finally come out, and not just speculation. And if people are Fired, Resigned, Frog Marched, so be it. But this is not the end all for this site. Tom will go back to crucifying Klugman, and the Adults will go back to criticizing the Left.

Heh. Indeed.

Just predictions... I don't know shit.

[Syl]

The ones who actually gave info to the press would be in more trouble than someone in the 'back office' unless some kind of conspiracy were proven.

I asked my friend about the interviews of the neighbors...posted how I understood what he was telling me in that too long thread that we better not go near again.

---
If you leak the employment of a CIA agent, you're culpable. You're not in a position to know how widely disseminated the info is, nor what the collateral damage might be.

However, if the info was already out there, it becomes part of the damage assessment. And how widely known it was, and what the secondary affects were affects that assessment. And that could be a mitigating factor for the defense.

But that's not your call. It's the investigator's call.

[kim]

Joe's a liar, and either a coward or a traitor. That is why I feel sympathy for Val. She knows, and if she is relatively innocent, she suffers; as does gemini.
========================================

[Syl]

So we don't have to be talkimg IIPA or frightening somebody into a plea bargain for this.

Looks to me like Fitz has enough to indict, but is hesitant, and is looking for a reason maybe not to.

Where's Andrea Mitchel? Sigh.

Have to go food shopping.

...

[pollyusa]

Let's review;

Rove failed to turn over his email to Hadley

Rove failed to turn over the phone log of his call with Cooper.

Rove failed to remember his conversation with Cooper

Rove told the GJ he first learned of Plame from reporters not government sources.

Rove can't remember which reporter told him or when.

Rove is shown Libby's testimony that states Libby told Rove.

Rove now testifies that it's possible that Libby told him.

The prosecution gets to have some fun too, since the text in the Rove email does mention "Niger" which is part of the original document request.

And more fun, it looks like the FBI might have had Rove's email to Hadley before Luskin "found" it

The FBI has obtained desk diaries and phone records and is examining the network server that handles White House e-mail
Time 10/27/03

[Tollhouse]

Here's a great CNN article. The contortions in it are delicious.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/POLITICS/10/26/cia.leak/index.html

Just read this! Laugh out loud kneeslapper.

/[Many legal experts and lawyers not involved in the case had expected the grand jury to vote on an indictment Wednesday -- if the investigation is going to result in indictments -- and that the outcome would be announced publicly.]/

[ed]

Not sure anyone here cares, but rawstory says they're going after Libby for the outing and Rove for purjury:

http://rawstory.com/news/2005/Prosecutor_in_leak_case_seeks_indictments_1026.html> http://rawstory.com/news/2005/Prosecutor_in_leak_case_seeks_indictments_1026.html

[clarice]

The only lawyer who has spoken on behalf of Wilson/Plame is also a neighbor. Over a year ago the Wash Times cited (by name) CIA officials who said Plame's employment was well-known and not a deep secret.

We still do not know the details, but I highly doubt that any more damage was done to her network(whatever that was) by this leak that wasn't already done by the two previous outings of her. A fiddlesticks distraction.

The report about the further investigation of her neighbors seems clearly to come from Wilson's camp and the press coverage certainly seems selective.

In any event while the Pacific Palisades area in which they live is an attractive neighborhood, the Commentariate still operates out of Georgetown and it is there that she was apparently well known.

As to Tatel's comments based on redacted info which none of us has access to, he was responding to an affidavit filed so early in the case, that simply cannot give us much assistance in knowing where we are now..Cooper had folded by the time it reached the Ct of Appeals and as we know there were TWO parts to the subpoena directed at JM.

[jon H]

steve sturm writes: "Cecil: given this started (at least in the press) as an IIPA investigation, wouldn't you have expected Fitzpatrick to nail down the question of whether Plame was or wasn't covert a long time ago?"

I would expect him to have done so.

I would also expect him to double-check, in case anyone's stories changed in the meantime, before going for an IIPA indictment.

(And the stories this week say that the neighbors were asked early on as well.)

It would hardly do to announce an IIPA indictment, then have the Washington Times quote a neighbor or two who knew she was CIA. (To date, all the Moonies have found is a single ex-CIA agent who claims (without evidence) that the neighbors knew.)

[Cecil Turner]

wouldn't you have expected Fitzpatrick to nail down the question of whether Plame was or wasn't covert a long time ago?

Yes (that's one reason I find it implausible). But I can't think of any other reason to check, since I don't think it'd be a defense against leaking classified information (or any other charge I can think of).

Seems only fair, considering that Miller told Libby that "Victoria Flame" worked for the "Bureau" of Land Management...

I've been wondering about that one. If the INR memo was the source, could Libby or Miller have assumed she worked there? (Remember, INR's full name is: State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research.)

[Jon H]

clarice writes: "Over a year ago the Wash Times cited (by name) CIA officials who said Plame's employment was well-known and not a deep secret."

He didn't back up this claim *at all*. It was pure baseless assertion. He provided no reason for readers to believe that he would know any of Plame's neighbors, or circulate in their social group.

[Patty Fitzgerald]

pollyusa is a joe wannabe. putting out lies as facts. we all know how joe looks now.

[topsecretk9]

Patty, is someone overusing the BOLD tag again?

[Cecil Turner]

Not sure anyone here cares, but rawstory says they're going after Libby for the outing and Rove for purjury

It won't be long before we know for sure, but rawstory is doing pretty well on this one, no?

[topsecretk9]

Barbecue and cocktails, anyone?

[Sue]

From the raw story link:

The lawyers said Fitzgerald needed more evidence to convince the grand jury that Plame was in fact an undercover agent.

[clarice]

How is it a known fact that this started as an IIPA investigation? Oh, I know that has been the newspaper version, but as I recall the task was to investigation leaks of classified information from the Agency..And frankly, the only known leaks I can wee didn't go from people in the WH to reporters.(Even Novak has said his source was not in the WH.)

[rich r.]

Drudge just took Bush and Cheney pics off his main headline, left Rove and Libby and added Joe and Valerie. LOL!

[BurkettHead]

Do we ned the USDA to grade either Wilson?
rotten & fetid, perhap?

[clarice]

CBS News chief White House correspondent John Roberts reports the prosecutor has informed targets of the investigation of his intentions – and that can only mean indictments. ***(Why? With people at such a high level, I'd expect as a courtesy he'd inform them either way)

In the meantime, Rove and Libby were at the WH today and Fox is reporting the gj has taken a break--whether for lunch, for the day or forever, no one knows.

[AJStrata]

Predictions? I know what should happen if the Fitzgerald is an objective prosecutor. Wilsons indicted, other CIA folks indicted, possible conspiracy charges to those around the Wilsons who tried to hide the fact her CIA role was well known. More here

http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/835

But Fitzgerald could want to be the next Ken Starr (silly thing to want to be IMHO), so who knows. My favorite line from The Note is my prediction - it will not turn out the way anyone predicted!

[ed]

Ouch! This too:

http://www2.boomantribune.com/story/2005/10/26/105036/84

civil rights, purjury, obstruction, leaking and a continuing probe.

[clarice]

Strata--I think The Note means not the way anyone in the MSM predicted...

And I hope that's right. From their point of view, it won't matter though, the fake storyline they've been peddling from day one serves their purpose well enough. Doesn't it?

[clarice]

Ed, that article is by Larry Johnson, nutcase ex-CIA agent, star of the Wilson-MoveOn parade.LOL

[ed]

has he been discredit? sorry. never saw anything on him other than he sided with wilson. or is that all it takes?

[Bill in AZ]

clarice (from 08:49)
"It would thus appear that he DID have access to the names and dates in the CIA reports, which means either (a) he had unauthorized access to classified CIA documents, received 8 moinths after his Mission or (b) he saw them before the CIA did."

Maybe during his stop in France on the way back from sipping tea in Niger - seems like a huge coincidence to me - see junkyardblog for French/Italian connection on the forgeries.

[pollyusa]

topsecretk9

I'm guessing you're referring to me on the Bold thing. I've noted your previous concerns on that issue and really did try to keep it a minimum, only one phrase.

Patty Fitzgerald

I'm hurt that you would call me a liar. I would suggest you may want to check the links provided.

[ed]

Bill, seems those France/Italy connections are going to be shot down in today's La Repubblica story.

[topsecretk9]

polly --no biggie, just an observation.

[jon h]

clarice writes:"Even Novak has said his source was not in the WH"

The Vice President's office is not in the White House. It's in another building.

[Jon H]

AJStrata writes: "Wilsons indicted, other CIA folks indicted, possible conspiracy charges to those around the Wilsons who tried to hide the fact her CIA role was well known"

And also the space aliens who teleported the WMD out of Iraq before we found them.

Get a grip, fantasy-boy.

[ordi]

Not sure if antone else has noted this above but it sure is interesting!

Grand Jury in CIA Leak Case Adjourns

The federal grand jury investigating the leak of a CIA officer's identity met for three hours Wednesday with Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald and adjourned for the day without announcing any action.

Fitzgerald is known to be putting the finishing touches on a two-year criminal probe that has ensnared two senior White House aides.

After the grand jury left for the day, federal prosecutors conferred for about an hour in the grand jury area of the federal courthouse.

There was no word on whether Fitzgerald planned to make any announcement or whether the grand jury planned to meet again.
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/10/26/D8DFRQ880.html

[ordi]

Grand Jury in CIA Leak Case Adjourns

The federal grand jury investigating the leak of a CIA officer's identity met for three hours Wednesday with Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald and adjourned for the day without announcing any action.

Fitzgerald is known to be putting the finishing touches on a two-year criminal probe that has ensnared two senior White House aides.

After the grand jury left for the day, federal prosecutors conferred for about an hour in the grand jury area of the federal courthouse.

There was no word on whether Fitzgerald planned to make any announcement or whether the grand jury planned to meet again.

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/10/26/D8DFRQ880.html

[american in europe]

I still think there will be a bi-partisan crop of indictments, which will give all sides something to complain about and something to cheer. Anyone in the White House who told the press "his wife works for the CIA" will at least get some kind of slap on the wrist for mishandling classified information. Valery and Joe will also be indicted: Valery for blowing her own cover and Joe for perjury. I also think at least one member of the press will get charged with something, as warning to others (Nick Kristof?)

There, I've covered all the bases.

[windansea]

The agents "made it clear they were part of the Fitzgerald investigation, and they were basically tying up loose ends," said David Tillotson, a lawyer and neighbor who was among those interviewed Monday.

standard Columbo technique....just tying up some loose ends....heh heh

signed
the snifferator

PS I wonder if Fitz has requested any wiretaps in this case

[Rick Ballard]

Ed,

Here are the stories from La Repubblica today concerning Niger.

The title of the second one "Nigergate, smentita di Palazzo Chigi
"Governo e Sismi non c'entrano""

would translate as "The White House denies any responsibility on the part of the government including the CIA with regard to the Niger documents if it were about the US administration.

The Repubblica journos are Corn, Pincus, Kristof wannabes and are left with a handful of dust - just like Corn, Pincus and Kristof.

[Jeff]

ed - It's probably pointless, since it seems that for clarice by definition anyone who has become critical of the Bush administration is disreputable, but that item ed referred to is actually by Richard Sale, (apparently) former UPI reporter who, as far as I can tell, has quite a good reputation, and who broke the story about Hannah and Libby being of special interest to the investigation, if I remember correctly. I will note that at the end he refers to Harry Reid as minority whip, which is kind of a big if irrelevant screwup. He's got a new post up over at the blog the earlier piece originated at saying he's heard that indictments will be announced this afternoon, with a press conference tomorrow, contra what most outlets are reporting. We'll see.

One other thing for clarice - When did Novak say his source was not in the White House? I recall that claim being made recently in the press, but not by or attributed to Novak himself.

oh and ed, are you the ed who gave me 10-1 odds on Rove being indicted? That looks like it's still up in the air, but you appear to have changed your outlook.

[Cheez-Wiz]

Wrong but not gutless? Well they're not mutually exclusive categories-but it seems your boy Rove prefers to be both unindicted and gutless.

Rove's amplified his rattiness. After all-if you'll betray the nation-what's a few fellow criminals.

So indictments were coming today. But are not.

Fitzgerald is at Rove's attorney's office yesterday, and sends the FBI to very publicly question the neighbors.

Today we have a hold on indictments. Because Rove got scared and decided to sing. Sad pitiful coward. I wish G. Gordon Liddy was still in the WH to garrote him.

[ed]

different ed, but i do think rove is the long shot.

[ordi]

Gee-Weeze Cheez Wiz since you were in the room with them tell us more!

[JM Hanes]

I'm late to the party, but has everybody already seen this from the UK's Telegraph? Opening graphs:

Agent behind fake uranium documents worked for France
By Bruce Johnston in Rome
(Filed: 19/09/2004)

The Italian businessman at the centre of a furious row between France and Italy over whose intelligence service was to blame for bogus documents suggesting Saddam Hussein was seeking to buy material for nuclear bombs has admitted that he was in the pay of France.

The man, identified by an Italian news agency as Rocco Martino, was the subject of a Telegraph article earlier this month in which he was referred to by his intelligence codename, "Giacomo".

His admission to investigating magistrates in Rome on Friday apparently confirms suggestions that - by commissioning "Giacomo" to procure and circulate documents - France was responsible for some of the information later used by Britain and the United States to promote the case for war with Iraq.

Italian diplomats have claimed that, by disseminating bogus documents stating that Iraq was trying to buy low-grade "yellowcake" uranium from Niger, France was trying to "set up" Britain and America in the hope that when the mistake was revealed it would undermine the case for war, which it wanted to prevent.

[Keith]

The Raw Story article does seem to fit with the actions of the past couple days. Any idea on how accurate the site tends to be?

[Bill in AZ]

ed wrote:
"Bill, seems those France/Italy connections are going to be shot down in today's La Repubblica story."

That's OK if they get shot down - it's too pat, too convenient, "giacomo" stating he was paid by France to create these forgeries. More last minute scramble by a rogue cia on the run. The Niger forgeries and the whole-cloth fake Rathergate memos came outta the same shop for the same purpose.

[Jim E.]

Since someone actually gave Novak the name "Plame," I suppose it's not crazy to think the 1982 isn't still in play. (Novak said the name was given to him; Novak never claimed that he found it in "who's who," only that it was in there.)

Plus, on CBS news last night, John Roberts apparently said (I didn't see it myself) that a mid-level staffer -- he called him Mr. X -- fed Plame's name to at least one reporter. If that mid-level staffer has flipped, then perhaps the book will be thrown at Libby. I'd put it -- outing an agent knowling -- in the longshot category.

And what about Hadley and Ari? Everyone seems to have forgetton about those two.

Among the big players, I'd say Rove, Hadley, Ari, and Libby will be indicted. And if Hadley and Ari aren't indicted, I'd expect it's because they've already cut a deal for their flippage.

[Sue]

I don't know that much about raw story, but I do know they were the ones who said 22 incidtments, 2 weeks ago. ;)

[Jim E.]

Rawstory's reputation is certainly riding on the outcome.

But a story today said that Fitzy had indictments for 5 people written out as of Oct. 17. Who knows if THAT story is reliable. Assuming so, if each person got 2-4 separate charges, it wouldn't be that difficult to get to the number 22. Maybe that was what rawstory was referring to. Some people apparently use the word indictment differently: it may mean # of people charged or it may mean # of total charges. We'll see.

[clarice]

Jeff--I went to Ed's site--saw this and read no farther because Johnson is simply not credible, indeed, he is a joke(see Milbank's Conyer's Playhouse Hearings, for example):

Aides To Be Indicted, Probe to Continue
by Larry Johnson
Wed Oct 26th, 2005 at 01:44:59 PM EDT

For your background, Richard was the first to tip me last year to the developing Larry Franklin spy scandal, which proved to be right. - ********************

As to Novak saying the source was "not a partisan gunslinger" and not in the WH, this has been discussed so many times, it's like asking me to show you how I know the sun rises in the East. Check out this very site for example and I am sure you will see all of Novak's statements re his sources, and quite clearly they were not Rove or Libby.

[Keith]

The Raw Story write-up would make sense of the Rove situation: why he still seems to be a person of interest and why Fitzgerald would have been in Luskin's office yesterday. But the story stretches credibility, at least for me, when it says that Fitz is going to charge Libby with violation of the IIPA. That's a really high bar.

But then again, why were FBI agents asking neighbors questions yesterday?

[jukeboxgrad]

Clarice: "Wilson consistently told reporters he'd seen the forged documents"

Please provide a single reference indicating Wilson said he had "seen" the dccuments. Sources indicating that he made statements about the documents, implying he had heard detailed information about the documents, don't count.

"we had not received those documents until eight months after his Mission"

I realize the conventional wisdom is that US hands didn't touch the documents until 10/02. This leaves unanswered certain questions, such as the matter of the interesting date of 7/7/2000. This is discussed further here.

"Over a year ago the Wash Times cited (by name) CIA officials who said Plame's employment was well-known and not a deep secret."

I see you're careless about the difference between singular and plural ("officials"). The article is here.

More on the Rustmann distortion here. Rustmann left the CIA in 1990. I guess that puts him a good position (not) to be an expert on Plame's status in 2003. As Jon H said, "all the Moonies have found is a single ex-CIA agent who claims (without evidence) that the neighbors knew."

"the two previous outings of her"

I guess you're impressed by that amicus brief. Too bad Hogan wasn't. If he had been, Miller wouldn't have gone to jail.

"the Commentariate still operates out of Georgetown and it is there that she was apparently well known."

How odd that in all this time no such person (someone who is a first-hand witness to the idea that she was "well known") has been produced by the army of Rove defenders (from Luskin on down to you).

[jukeboxgrad]

Trained: "It calls into question whether his recollection is representative of the neighbors."

How odd that in all this time no such person (a neighbor who disagrees with Tillotson) has been produced by the army of Rove defenders (from Luskin on down to you).

cathyf: "Miller told Libby that 'Victoria Flame' worked for the 'Bureau' of Land Management..."

You made up the part about "Land Management," right?

[Geek, Esq.]

"But then again, why were FBI agents asking neighbors questions yesterday?"

Very possibly, Fitzgerald put the IIPA and/or Espionage Act before the Grand Jury, and they had questions.

[Sue]

Seems that raw story's leaker said the Grand Jury had questions about whether she was covert or not.

[Thomas]

Well, if the grand jury questions whether or not she is covert, and Fitzgerald goes to the Wilson neighborhood again, it seems to mean that they want to make sure she was completely covert before the indictment goes through. It's not a good sign if you're Libby and your lawyer was telling you perjury and obstruction are the charges.

[Appalled Moderate]

Jeff:

The problem with that UPI thing is that it also indicated that there were going to be charges for violating Joe Wilson's civil rights. That's so absurd that I tend to think the person writing the story has no discernment or judgment. Which means who knows what in that story is true and what is bogus?

I was leaning towards Rove being off the hook, but that just does not tally with all the activity around his lawyer. Guess we'll find out what all that is about soon.

I'll be sorry if all we get is what has been predicted -- a scattering of perjury and obstruction charges. I tend to like real crimes behind perjury charges -- and in this case, if Fitz can't convict on the outing on Plame -- it's not because the evidence is unclear, but because he can't make the law do what he wants it to do.

[Geek, Esq.]

They could also be clarifying something as miniscule as the difference between "Did you know she was a covert agent" vs. "Did you know she worked for the CIA" vs "Did you know she worked for the US government?"

[clarice]

jukebox, you can go to The Daily Howler (Aesop's Fable post) for more--but from the SSCI report we have:

[quote] The former ambassador also told Committee staff that he was the source of a Washington Post article ("CIA Did Not Share Doubt on Iraq Data; Bush Used Report of Uranium Bid," June 12, 2003) which said, "among the Envoy's conclusions was that the documents may have been forged because `the dates were wrong and the names were wrong." Committee staff asked how the former ambassador could have come to the conclusion that the "dates were wrong and the names were wrong" when he had never seen the CIA reports and had no knowledge of what names and dates were in the reports. The former ambassador said that he may have "misspoken" to the reporter when he said he concluded the documents were "forged." He also said he may have become confused about his own recollection after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in March 2003 that the names and dates on the documents were not correct and may have thought he had seen the names himself. The former ambassador reiterated that he had been able to collect the names of the government officials which should have been on the documents[/quote]

[Geek, Esq.]

"and in this case, if Fitz can't convict on the outing on Plame -- it's not because the evidence is unclear, but because he can't make the law do what he wants it to do."

Unless, of course, only some of the obstruction and perjury were unsuccessful/discovered.

[cathyf]

cathyf: "Miller told Libby that 'Victoria Flame' worked for the 'Bureau' of Land Management..."

You made up the part about "Land Management," right?

Yes, that was a joke. It was really the Census Bureau. Or maybe the Bureau of Mines. ;-)

Seriously, though, note Cecil Turner's interesting comment:

I've been wondering about that one. If the INR memo was the source, could Libby or Miller have assumed she worked there? (Remember, INR's full name is: State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research.)

cathy :-)

[Geek, Esq.]

The civil rights charges, though something I find highly unlikely, aren't THAT big of a stretch:

18 U.S.C. 242

Whoever, under color of any law, statute, ordinance, regulation, or custom, willfully subjects any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District to the deprivation of any rights, privileges, or immunities secured or protected by the Constitution or laws of the United States, ... shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than one year, or both; and if bodily injury results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include the use, attempted use, or threatened use of a dangerous weapon, explosives, or fire, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and if death results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include kidnaping or an attempt to kidnap, aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to commit aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to kill, shall be fined under this title, or imprisoned for any term of years or for life, or both, or may be sentenced to death.

18">http://www.usdoj.gov/crt/crim/241fin.htm">18 U.S.C. 241

If two or more persons conspire to injure, oppress, threaten, or intimidate any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured to him by the Constitution or laws of the United States, or because of his having so exercised the same;...

They shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both; and if death results from the acts committed in violation of this section or if such acts include kidnapping or an attempt to kidnap, aggravated sexual abuse or an attempt to commit aggravated sexual abuse, or an attempt to kill, they shall be fined under this title or imprisoned for any term of years or for life, or both, or may be sentenced to death.

The theory here would be that the Bush administration sought to intimidate and punish Joe Wilson for the exercise of his free speech rights.

[Tollhouse]

Very possibly, Fitzgerald put the IIPA and/or Espionage Act before the Grand Jury, and they had questions.

Three days before expiry of their term? When does a prosecutor normally tell a grand jury what crime(s) they are supposed to be investigating?

[Jim E.]

clarice wrote: "Check out this very site for example and I am sure you will see all of Novak's statements re his sources, and quite clearly they were not Rove or Libby."

Rove was Novak's second source.

[clarice]

Why not start working on that one, geek--that the Rovian mind melders were so successful in obstructing justice they avoided indictments, you know--just in case two Wednesdays ago 22 people weren't actually you know like indicted.;)