Bold Predictions 2006: The Plame Game

One year is winding down, another is set to begin, and every hack pundit is compiling their list of predictions for the year ahead.  Well, we won't be out-hacked!   What is going to happen with the Plame leak investigation?  You make the call!

Below are some questions with a (mostly) multiple choice answer format.  Winning entry will receive something or other; decision of judge is final.  Sharpen your pencils, shake that 8-Ball, and away we go:

(1)  Fitzgerald will indict Karl Rove...

(a) in time for a truly Merry Fitzmas 2005!
(b) by March 31, 2006.
(c) someday, for something, because there is a G*d in heaven.
(d) never, but Rove will not walk away laughing - Fitzgerald's investigation will never formally be concluded.
(e) never, Fitzgerald will formally announce that Rove will not be charged, and the sidewalks will be littered with leaping lefties.

(2)  Charges against Rove will be...

(a) false statements/perjury related to how he learned about Wilson's wife.
  (b) false statements/perjury for failing to disclose his talk with Matt Cooper of TIME.
  (c) personally taking a pick-ax to the levees in New Orleans.
  (d) being a wicked, wicked man who enables an evil, evil President (Bonus points for citing a statute)
(e) Some of the above (Please specify)
  (f) None of the above.

(3)  Lewis Libby will...

  (a) go to trial in 2006.
  (b) reach a settlement, with jail time.
  (c) reach a wrist slap, no jail time settlement
  (d) delay everything past the midterm election, giving us a chance to write about the Plame trial in '007! 

(4) Others to be indicted will include...   

Bush, Cheney, Hadley, Rice, Bolton, Fleitz, Hannah, Wurmser, or add your own - for folks taking this test at home, if you run out of space, turn your paper over.

(5) Journalists who be dragged in and dragged down, either by deposition or court appearance, will include:

Walter Pincus
Bob Woodward
Nick Kristof
Judy Miller
Tim Russert
Andrea Mitchell
Chris Matthews
Bob Novak
Viveca Novak

The reporters above have all been mentioned as having given evidence, or were mentioned in Libby's indictment.  For a Huge Bonus - correctly identify some other reporters who "ought to" have received a leak, but have not yet been publicly humiliated by their role in this.  For example, Andrea Mitchell covers the State Dept for NBC News - doesn't she have counterparts at ABC, CBS, CNN, and Fox, and what were they covering? 

Or, why would someone who likes to leak to old-timers like Pincus and Novak *not* leak to William Safire?  Why did no earnest Administration official put a story in the possibly friendly ear of George Will or Jim Hoagland?

How come Mike Isikoff, Howard Fineman, and Ron Brownstein (truly an all-around genius) missed this leak?

We know they are out there!

(5) Libby's primary defense will be...

(a) a generic "I'm a busy man, I forgot I learned about and discussed Plame with Cheney, Grossman, Martin, my CIA briefer, my doorman, and my veterinarian.  People forget, waddya gonna do?

  (b) a plot-twisting Medical Mystery - who knew that Viagra and DayQuil could interact to produce temporary memory loss?

  (c) an "f-u" to Fitzgerald - the investigation was flawed (ask Woodward, and others to be deposed later), it was a CIA dirty trick we must not reward, Plame was not really covert so there was no underlying crime, so anyway, why are we here?

  (d) alien abduction.

  (e) other - please describe.  PLEASE!  Libby needs all the help he can get.

(7)  George Bush will announce pardons in the Plame case...

  (a) before a trial, to ease the political pain.
  (b) shortly after the guilty, Guilty, GULITY verdicts.
  (c) January 19, 2009.
  (d) December 24, 2008.
  (e) never - let 'em rot, Bush is restoring honor and dignity.
  (f) never, since there will be no one (NO ONE, got that?) to pardon.  Yeah!

(8) One fine day, we the people may learn from the CIA their serious, honest appraisal of the real damage done to national security by the publication of the Novak column outing Valerie Plame.  This news will be delivered by way of...

  (a) Porter Goss testifying to Congress.
  (b) Porter Goss appearing on Meet The Press.
  (c) George Tenet appearing on Meet The Press.
  (d) Larry Johnson appearing on Hardball.
  (e) George Bush taking questions in a special Presidential press conference. (Sorry, this is meant to be a somewhat serious quiz).

(8)  Your Chance to Bite Back!  The most Interesting and Painfully Obvious Omission from this contest is... [fill in the blank].

Post entries in the comments below, although I suppose the terminally shy can send me an email.

Decision of judge is final, unless too many people complain.

First prize will be a copy of Lewis Libby's classic, "The Apprentice".

Second prize will be two copies of Lewis Libby's classic, "The Apprentice".

Happy Holidays.

Comments

[kim]

The blankety-blank Democrats.

Sometimes I think Joe is a bystander casualty in the war against Bush. Sure MSM thought they had an easy little embarrassment to the administration, but when their instrument, Joe, turned out to be so unreliable why has his meme persisted despite the hogwash of its origin. This has been the work of MSM and their beneficiary, the Democratic Party. Sure I'm still suspicious of French duplicity, of thug CIA elements, of Joe's psyche and character(and sometimes I even wonder about Val), but this affair has been an instrument of institutional evil primarily by our so-called profession of journalism. There is rot. And sometimes I think it's all rot.
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[fsj]

1-d, 2-f, 3-d, 4-none, 5-all of the above, the second #5 (referred to as "6" in some countries)-a and c, 7-c, 8-by anonymous leak to press (oops already happened via woodward), the second #8 (referred to as...forget it) the bonus question: "What will be the name of the movie telling this story?" a-yellow cake, yellow cake, secret agent man, b-the chronicles of niger-the liar, the desk jockey and the memo, c-Larry Johnson and the goblet of sh*t, d-King Dong-the story of joe wilson, e-bareback mountin'

[kim]

And what's with the Happy Holidays? Are you some kind of theocrat with your celebration of Holy Days?
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[Mister Costanza]

Merry Festivus to all!!!!

[r flanagan]

7a should be expanded to include :
Dec 24 2006 or before a trial whichever comes later.

[Dwilkers]

1) Fitzgerald will indict Karl Rove...

(d) never, but Rove will not walk away laughing - Fitzgerald's investigation will never formally be concluded.

2) Charges against Rove will be...

(f) None of the above.

3) Lewis Libby will...

(d) delay everything past the midterm election, giving us a chance to write about the Plame trial in '007!

4) Others to be indicted will include...

Armitage, for concealing his leak to Woodward in previous testimony.

5) Journalists who be dragged in and dragged down, either by deposition or court appearance, will include:

All of them. Libby's atty adopts a scorched earth defense.

6) Libby's primary defense will be...

(a) and (c). He was busy. He forgot. Its obvious to everyone that Fitz is incompetent and fell to the pressure to indict someone...anyone for something...anything.

7) George Bush will announce pardons in the Plame case...

[let me be the first to predict this]

(e) never - let 'em rot, Bush is restoring honor and dignity.

8) One fine day, we the people may learn from the CIA their serious, honest appraisal of the real damage done to national security....

(f) Never.

[kim]

Princess Val and the Maelstrom.

The Grey Lady of Breakback Fountain.

The Tales of Baron Munchwilson.
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[dorf]

It's time for the feats of strength and airing of grievances.

[fsj]

Yes kim, the next TM contest should be movie names for this fiasco along with the suggested casting by character. Bill Murray would make a good Fitz, Alec Baldwin as Joe (both love France and hate America), Christopher Walken as Libby, Delta Burke as Cooper, Barbra Streisand as Val, Carrot Top as Chris Matthews, Anthony Hopkins as Bob Novak, Clint Eastwood (wearing wardrobe from "hang 'em high") as W, Arnold Schwarzenegger as Dick Cheney and Brad Pitt as Rove...

[Dwilkers]

9) Big news on the Wilson/Plame front will be:

(a) Val files for divorce, citing her disgust with having married a man that sucks the life out of her by making her the ultimate "trophy wife". Plus, oddly, she cites his use of her hair dryer and cosmetics, and suspicions he has been secretly wearing her clothing.

(b) Fitz actually investigates Wilson for outing his own wife, Kristoff is questioned closely.

(c) Tim Russert resigns in shame saying he can no longer live with himself, citing his guilt over having been the one that originally leaked Plame's name and status to Libby at the Watergate in the men's steamroom over cigars and fart jokes, which he learned at an NBC Christmas party in 1998 from some third level state department guy that got a mercy invitation.

(d) Tom Maguire, a blogger newly famous for his in depth coverage of the Plame affair, is checked into a mental institution by his wife, who states that he has been sitting at his computer for 10 days drooling and muttering about a transcript he cannot find on the NYTimes website. He's certain (CERTAIN!) it must be there somewhere.

(e) Dick Cheney is indicted for conspiracy and resigns. Condi Rice is appointed by Bush as his successor.

10) Fitz releases his report, allowing us all to find out what really happened:

(a) Never, it is sealed by an amendment attached to a fruit fly study funding bill by evil Pubs.

(b) Never, it is sealed by an amendment attached to a fruit fly study funding bill by evil Dems.

(c) In 2155 by a FOI request by Andrea Mitchell's great great great grandchild in an effort at posthumous honor restoration that ultimately fails, and since we're all dead nobody cares anyway.

(d) In 2025, but it receives little notice due to the ongoing war between the US and China over Lunar territory.

(e) In 2010, but close reading by Plame-o-philes that remain alive reveals the investigators considered the whole thing to be silly, and mostly spent their time playing cards. Fitz only indicted Libby because he beat them at spades one afternoon and insisted they pay the $4.75 they owed him before he left, which Fitz considered a violation of his personal honor.

[Appalled Moderate]

fsj:

Dan Akroyd for Fitz, replaying his role as Sgt Friday in Dragnet. Bill Murray as Wilson. Jason Alexander in George Castanza mode as Libby. Christopher Walken in a multiple role as Rove, Cheney, and any other Bush official rumored to be competent.

In order to be true to life, we never actually see Val on screen -- only hear about her. The picture we see of her (in a montage showing the famed Vanity Fair cover) is of Naomi Watts, but we later find out the photo is a fraud...

Otherwise, your casting choices look OK. Oh wait And one last casting change. Brad Pitt as Tom Maguire, crusading blogger, who, in a sexy scene involving pajamas, Naomi Watts (tearfully confessing to posing on the Vanity Fair cover) suddenly realizes he has had to the key to the whole thing all the time! Problem is, the article that revelas all is behind the subscription wall at Times select!!

[Cecil Turner]

Heh, heh. Great job, Dwilkers! Okay, let's see: 1) e-f Rove will not be charged (but Fitz will blow him a press conference raspberry that keeps the liberals from leaping); 2) f; 3) c (timing is murky, ask again later); 4) nobody; 5) difficulties over reporter depositions will eventually lead to a wrist-slap settlement, none will testify in open court; 6) e, the good ol' "admit nothing, deny everything, and make counteraccusations" defense (and even if he's stupid enough to try to come up with a new story--or worse, testify--his lawyer won't let him); 7) f; 8) dream on.

[TP]

1. e. Rove will not be charged and Fitz might reply to a question in a press conference at some point. In time, probably nobody will care.
2. f.
3. d. My guess is that the FBI investigation of the Niger forgeries will merge with the leaks case at some point and will be heard by the same GJ or a GJ with which Fitz is working. Until this happens, we will not get a complete picture and Libby will not come to trial. It is possible that discovery in the Libby case will be used in the Niger forgeries investigation.
4. None of those people will be indicted.
5. All of those journalists will be deposed in Libby’s discovery. Their editors will be deposed in Libby’s discovery. Anybody who ever appeared on their shows and discussed this case will be deposed. Anybody that Scowcroft or Armitage discussed the case with will be deposed. Anybody within the third degree of kinship of all of these people will be deposed. Fitz will also question them all more thoroughly under oath.
6. If the case comes to trial, Libby’s defense will be that he learned the story both from official and unofficial sources and that he never disclosed anything that he did not learn from unofficial sources. He will say that some piece of information that he gleaned from the Russert conversation gave him the complete picture, for the first time from unofficial sources.

In addition, he will say that his confusing GJ testimony was the result of several things:
1. He was busy and did not have the proper amount of time to prepare for the GJ
2. His memory, like that of the dozens of professional reporters he has deposed faded with the passage of time. He, unlike the reporters, has a resposible job that involves very important work.

If the case comes to trial, he will present himself as a hard working patriot wo is being hectored by Fitz, Wilson, the newspapers and anybody else who happened to pass through the scene of this accident.

7. c. If any aspect of the case is still open or if there is a conviction or a plea bargain. This may include any people involved in the Niger forgeries investigation.

8.a. Not really a good choice, because this thing will drag on so long that Porter Goss may not be head of the CIA. If we ever get an assessment, it will not be until the Plame trials and any trials resulting from the FBI Niger forgery are complete.

[kim]

TP: Who gave you my Christmas wish list?
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[TP]

Kim. Insanity love company. : ^ )

[kim]

Atticus Fitz, Val Mansfield, Joe Flew over the Coop Pooh Mess, The Three MSM Stooges, Lom Novak and Harry 'Thunderbolt' Maguire.
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[kim]

Let me outa here.
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[Lew Clark]

Trying to answer each question makes my eyes cross so I'm just going to do an a, b, or c answer to the whole thing.

A. Fitzgerald ends the investigation with no further indictments. Libby goes to trial. It takes three years to present all the evidence, followed by the jury taking 15 minutes to find Libby innocent on all charges.

B. With the investigation still open, Fitzgerald resigns to run for U.S. Senate on the Democratic ticket in a State to be named later. No replacement is named for Fitzgerald, and the whole thing just fades away.

C. Fitzgerald succeeds in getting a RICO indictment of the entire administration, all past, present, and future Republican office holders, and all journalist/bloggers who by action/inaction hindered the investigation.

[ed]

Hmmm.

(8) One fine day, we the people may learn from the CIA their serious, honest appraisal of the real damage done to national security by the publication of the Novak column outing Valerie Plame. This news will be delivered by way of...

f. A cover story on Vanity Fair.

[maryrose]

The correct answers are:
1.E 2.F 3. D 5. A 7. F
Movie titles with starring roles:

Joe and Val Potter and the Goblet of Lies
Reporters Aeon- Flux

Joe's Pride and Val's Prejudice

Starring: Blythe Danner as Val
Jack Nicholson as Joe
Tom Hanks as Fitz
Joe Pesci as Libby
Brad Pitt as "W"
Tom Wilkerson as Rove
Jerry Mathers as The Beaver

[Al]

(4) Others to be indicted will include...

Remember, we were assured that there would be 22 total persons indicted. Libby makes 1, so 21 to go. Please make sure your answer includes 21 such persons.

[clarice]

1. (a) Never. Though a formal announcement by Fitz is unlikely.
3. The case will not go to trial because the reporters will not cooperate re discovery and Fitz will make a strong 6th Amendment argument, and see below:
5.(see 3)
You have TWO 5's--I'll make the 2d 5 a 6 and answer (e)--6th Amendment; lack of materiality ; he said/he said with strong cross of Russert/Cooper and Miller

7. Unlikely Libby case will be resolved by time Bush leaves office if it goes to trial. Next Republican President will pardon him should my earlier predictions prove wrong.
You also have TWO 8's. Libby will demand the Court direct the CIA to make a formal damage assessment or secure from the Court the right to argue that the failure to produce one was deliberate because there was none.

[Rick Ballard]

No way I'm taking a damn multiple choice quiz. Next thing it'll be short essays, then term papers.. who knows where it could end?

True or False or nothing. At least that way I've got a 30 somethin' per cent chance of getting each answer right.

[clarice]

Hmm, I should have conferred with you first, Rick. What was I thinking?

[BurkettHead]

Is it like the Multistate Bar Exam: "Which incorrect answer is the least incorrect?"

[kim]

A remake of 'Carnival of Souls'. The Wilsons haven't gone down to the Pike, have they?
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[JM Hanes]

Fitzgerald will indict Karl Rove...in a press release nailed to the Appellate Court doors upon the expiration of his current grand jury.

Charges against Rove will be...prosecutorial sand thrown in the public’s eyes.

Lewis Libby will…stay nailed to his cross alone until his defense starts swearing in reporters who will promtly be nailed up there with him by their colleagues.

Others to be indicted will include...Chuck Schumer’s hit list of vulnerable Republican incumbents.

Journalists to be drug in will include…no one who will answer the questions JOMers have been asking.

Huge Bonus for reporters who "ought to" have received a leak but didn’t? C’mon Tom, everybody knows there's no pay out on this one.

Libby's primary defense will be...summers turning to autumns in clusters.

George Bush will announce pardons in the Plame case...in lieu of pinning medals on the miscreants responsible, for a change.

One fine day, an honest appraisal from the CIA…will be delivered by way of…a memo faxed directly to Katie Couric by Lucille Martin at Kinko’s Paris.

The most Interesting and Painfully Obvious Omission from this contest is... [Number (9)].

[kim]

Spartacus, with Fitz played by Brad Pitt pitching reporters into the pit.
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[machsplanck]

Wow. Lots to do in D.C., with little being done. What a morass! Look how Harry Reid is tied into Val Plame here.

[kim]

Yellowfinger

or

The Man with the Golden Cake.
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