Per Bill Gertz of the Wash Times, an NSA whistleblower wrote to Congress on Dec 16 with a story about "electronic intelligence programs". Was it only a coincidence that the NY Times published their big scoop on that day? Who knows!?! [UPDATE - Trouble in paradise - a different news release dates the letters as Dec 18, which follows the Times story. Bafflement reigns.]
Anyway, Russ Tice has quite a backstory - this is from James Ridgeway in the Village Voice from May of 2005 (or more here):
Russ Tice, an intelligence analyst for the heavily secret National Security Agency, has announced that he was fired from his job earlier this week after he stood up to protest the way the agency harassed him.
...His problems started when he asked the agency to look into the activities of an employee he thought might be engaged in espionage. Instead, the NSA called him in for an emergency psychological evaluation, one of the usual procedures in blackballing an employee. He was duly determined to be crazy and put on administrative leave. Tice was later assigned to unload furniture from trucks at a warehouse, where he hurt his back. He also served an eight-month tour of duty in the NSA motor pool, where the analyst worked at maintaining the agency’s fleet of vehicles, gassing them up, cleaning them and checking the fluids, and driving NSA big shots around town.
...Tice says there are some 24 other intelligence employees in the NSA who have been blackballed on spurious charges and had their careers wrecked by the removal of their security clearances. The Pentagon Inspector General’s office is looking into Tice’s treatment, and it’s always possible he could get his job back. Last year he sent a letter to Congress saying others in the intelligence community were being punished by having their security clearances lifted.
Interesting - James Risen assured Katie Couric that his sources were true American patriots with no axes to grind. [Excerpt after the fold.]
The Wash Times also says this:
In his Dec. 16 letter, Mr. Tice wrote that his testimony would be given under the provisions of the 1998 Intelligence Community Whistleblower Protection Act, which makes it legal for intelligence officials to disclose wrongdoing without being punished.
Somewhere in this post is some background on that law.
MORE: Credit where due - BuzzFlash and the Dem Underground had this on Dec 21/22 0f 2005. Well, the Wash Times really takes it mainstream, then.
And here is a related Vanity Fair interview with Sibel Edmonds, founder of the National Security Whistleblowers.
UPDATE: Trouble in paradise - the National Security Whistleblowers news release, as repeated by the impressive-sounding Official Wire, says this:
Here is the letter by Mr. Tice, sent on Dec 18, 2005, to the Senate & House Intelligence Committee:
Dear Chairman Roberts,
Under the provisions of the Intelligence Community Whistleblower Protection Act (ICWPA), I intend to report to Congress probable unlawful and unconstitutional acts conducted while I was an intelligence officer with the National Security Agency (NSA) and with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). These acts involve the Director of the National Security Agency, the Deputies Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, and the U.S. Secretary of Defense.
These probable unlawful and unconstitutional acts were conducted via very highly sensitive intelligence programs and operations known as Special Access Programs (SAP)s. I was a technical intelligence specialist dealing almost exclusively with SAP programs and operations at both NSA and DIA.
Due to the highly sensitive nature of these programs and operations, I will require assurances from your committee that the staffers and/or congressional members to participate retain the proper security clearances, and also have the appropriate SAP cleared facilities available for these discussions.
Please inform me when you require my appearance on Capitol Hill to conduct these discussions in relation to this ICWPA report.
Very Respectfully,
Russell D. Tice
Former Intelligence Officer, NSA
Dec 18 clearly follows the original Times story, datelined Dec 15 and published Dec 16. That certainly makes it more plausible that Mr. Tice is responding to, rather than leading, the Risen story.
James Risen with Katie Couric (excerpt):
COURIC: And happy new year to you. I know that you broke this story, as we mentioned, for The New York Times. Why do you think the people who talked about this secret program came forward and told you about it?
Mr. RISEN: Well, you know, I think this was the most classic whistleblower case I've ever seen where people--you know, in--in a lot of stories people have mixed motives for why they talk to reporters. Some--some people--in some stories there's a turf battle, and they're losing out in the turf battle, or whatever. In this case--I've been a reporter for about 25 years, this was the purest case of a whistle--of--of whistleblowers coming forward, people who truly believed that there was something wrong going on in the government, and they were motivated, I believe, by the purest of reasons.
COURIC: But--but many critics have already alleged that they believe that your sources had serious axes to grind. Why are you so convinced otherwise?
Mr. RISEN: Because I talked to these people, and they've--many of them were tormented by their knowledge of this. They truly believed that--they were troubled by the--the--the fact that they knew--that they thought something was wrong in the government, and they came forward, I believe, simply to make the public aware of this.
COURIC: What specifically was upsetting to them about this whole policy?Mr.
RISEN: Well, many of these people had grown up in the environment of knowing that, in order to get to listen in on Americans, you had to get a court order. And they saw that something was happening in which that was not being done, that there were--that the courts were being skirted, that Congress--that the laws had not been changed. And they believed that for whatever reason the Bush administration was skirting the law. Now, that'll be something that we can all debate about whether or not they did skirt the law. But that was the reason the people came forward. They believed that something was going wrong.
From the group supporting Tice:
It is indispensable that Congress reach deep inside the National Security Agency and other agencies, seeking out employees at the operational level to determine how the President’s illegal order was carried into action. To assure that this occurs, we need for people with information from the agencies involved to come forward and ask to be interviewed by Congress. The National Security Whistleblowers Coalition calls on people with knowledge of unconstitutional surveillance of American citizens to contact NSWBC and let us know that they are willing to provide congress with information and testimony. Anonymity, if desired, will be scrupulously honored. NSWBC will provide contact information to Congress and investigative authorities, and will follow up to ensure that these witnesses were in fact interviewed in good faith by congressional staff and committees and allowed to participate in the hearing process. NSWBC will be the conduit between agents and Congress for those like Russ Tice, a former intelligence agent at the National Security Agency, who announced his willingness to disclose to Congress illegal acts by officials at his former employer. At NSWBC we know what we are asking people to do: Our organization is made up exclusively of veteran intelligence and law enforcement officers, agents and analysts.
Now is the time to come forward, not to reveal legitimately classified information, but to make yourselves available as witnesses and to serve the true supervisor of us all: the Constitution. Ordinarily one would expect the congress to be the guardian of our freedom by living up to its storied role as a check and balance to the President and the Executive Branch. But for four years, members of our Congress in supposed oversight committees were aware of illegal spying on American citizens. Co-opted by an unscrupulous commitment to secrecy and the state, intelligence oversight committees in Congress must step out of the way for a People’s hearing on the matter of presidentially ordered illegal surveillance. Congress must engage in a broad, public hearing of these matters.
Posted by: MayBee | January 05, 2006 at 06:33 AM
Another point to ponder and hypothetical.
Say someone in one of the services has suspicions that someone else is a spy for another nation and they decide they have to let the higher ups know. The higher ups rebuff them. What to do. What to do.
One of the problems these people have is that they do not know everything!
It's could be that who he thinks is a spy is really a counter-spy and higher ups are protecting that.
What do higher ups do about the lower guy who doesn't have the clearance to know that miss chan is really a counter-spy? They, well, blow him off.
Or maybe she is really a spy.
The thing is, the potential whistleblower who goes out to the public because his concerns were blown off may very well jeopardize more than he knows. Because he doesn't know everything.
All I'm saying, and I don't mean to imply that it's the case in the current discussion about anything, is that we cannot jump to conclusions and assume that a 'whistleblower' himself even has a clue
(I had posted this in another thread, but, well, I'm not perfect)
Posted by: Syl | January 05, 2006 at 08:25 AM
Just as apt, here, and illustrates why the correct procedure was written into law. Surely this NWSA is not ignorant of the correct procedure?
===============================================
Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 08:36 AM
Syl- I was just thinking about the same thing.
Either their superiors (and often, their superiors' superiors) are in on a big scam, simply think the 'whistleblower' is crazy, or knows more than the whistleblower.
So Edmunds thinks the Turkish couple are trying to get her to spy. And Tice thinks the Chinese grad student is spying for China. Paranoia? Racism? Active imagination? Once we imagine something, it is very easy to convince ourselves it is so.
Or is your suspicion true but secret?
Or true but illegal?
And what do you do (and I'm not saying this is the case) if you think your spy co-worker suspects you of something? Say something about them first?
It's virtually impossible to know from their stories why they were actually let go, because the government can't talk about them. Isn't that kind of the deal when you go into intelligence? They don't have your back.
It is hard to imagine, however, that every member of Congress that could give them respite is in on the cover up.
Of course, there can't be much of a broad, public hearing on these matters as called for by the NSWBC.
Posted by: MayBee | January 05, 2006 at 09:02 AM
Well Maybee, if you can't beat 'em at the ballot box....
Posted by: Mark | January 05, 2006 at 09:43 AM
I love it. If you can't beat 'em at the ballot box, find an issue that will perpetuate your performance.
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Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 09:50 AM
"Interesting - James Risen assured Katie Couric that his sources were true American patriots with no axes to grind. [Excerpt after the fold.]"
It seems to me that there's a bit more to Ripe's story than a sharp ax, we also don't know much about Risen's sources. My impression is that misuse of the NSA for partisan politics, rather than US security interests, may be the looming story here.
Posted by: Gripe | January 05, 2006 at 10:21 AM
Tice actually has an ax to grind and I see this as a red herring to what has really transpired. If you are a true whistleblower in the case of the NSA situation , you go public and don't hide behind the skirts of journalists
Step up and own your concern and do it through the right channels.
Posted by: maryrose | January 05, 2006 at 10:22 AM
Sorry, make that Tice's story" in my comment above.
Posted by: gripe | January 05, 2006 at 10:26 AM
Risen's book must have been almost ready to go by December 16.
Tice and December 16 may have been a premptive move to forestall any prosecution.
I would suggest that Tice will be questioned as to when he talked with Risen and to who else he disclosed information to before going to the Congress.
Posted by: Davod | January 05, 2006 at 10:32 AM
Someone else has mentioned that by going to Congress, Tice is only protected from then on. He is criminally liable for his actions before then.
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Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 10:43 AM
Syl: I acknowledge the possibility that some of these whistleblowers are just out of the loop on counter espinoge activities. However, when an intelligence official blows the whistle to the IG's office, gets rebuffed, then turns to Congress, gets rebuffed, then turns to the media and finds a friendly ear, it becomes obvious that there has to be a mechanism the intelligence community can use to inform a whistleblower without them screaming to the press to reveal extremely sensitive material.
If such a mechanism does not exist it becomes obvious that the intelligence community faces a steep vertical climb to overcome many more whistleblowers that will assume the government is trying to cover up violations of the law.
The interesting aspect to the Edmunds story is that she was recruited to spy for a private business council. They wanted her to translate key conversations spoken in Armenian. The Turks are awfully sensitive on anything Armenian. Ask Scowcroft.
Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland | January 05, 2006 at 10:57 AM
Listen, it took me minutes after learning Tice's name to learn that he was linked with the VIPS and was a crank. And yet hournos can't find this out?
I still see Larry Johnson interviews with not a single clue to readers/viewers about his background.
Maybe there should be a sign on 43rd St:
Bringme your paranoid cranks with their grievances,
I hold out my lamp before the door---or something..
If you have ever worked in any organization or, worse, managed one, you have met Edmonds and Tice types. And you know that they do not belong handling top secret stuff.
Now, I have a question:Who's funding these cranks and troublemakers and is his name a
palindrome?
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 11:01 AM
I look forward to day when Armenia and Kurdistan are two independent republics. I'm not sure how to get there, though.
===========================================
Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 11:04 AM
If he's funding them, can he be tried on conspiracy charges after they've gone to jail for treason?
=================================
Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 11:09 AM
maryrose: Tice's public timeline begins in March 2005. The journos report that his private criticisms through the channels available to one in the intelligence community begin in 2003.
Step up and own your concern and do it through the right channels.
If you accept the reports, then he did.
Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland | January 05, 2006 at 11:11 AM
I do not believe tha law says the next step is to go public..He may privately bring his concerns to Congress. He may not go peddling the story to journos and issuing public press releases, Gabriel.
And if the Dems and NYT want to tie their credibility to this nutcase, let it be! They are made for eachother.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 11:14 AM
I look forward to day when Armenia and Kurdistan are two independent republics. I'm not sure how to get there, though.
Um, Kim,
Last time I looked, Armenia WAS an independent republic
Posted by: Brendan | January 05, 2006 at 11:18 AM
clarice: "Now, I have a question:Who's funding these cranks and troublemakers and is his name a palindrome?"
heh heh - he has warehouses full of unsold books. I'm glad I'm not on his Christmas list. Every acquainance of his got Clarkes or Mapes, or Burketts or several of any number of Bush bashing cranks unread, unsold drivel.
I often wonder how his publishing ventures fit into campaign finance laws or 527's.
Posted by: Bill in AZ | January 05, 2006 at 11:19 AM
And all this time I thought his time and money was being spent on electing that Bolivian commie Morales --just after he pitched his Bolivian petro stock, that darling.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 11:29 AM
Hook 'em Horns!!!!
I think I'm sleepy. Late game. ::grin:: I can't figure out who the person is Clarice and Bill are talking about...even with the hints being given.
Posted by: Sue | January 05, 2006 at 11:29 AM
Starts with S , sounds a bit like morose.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 11:30 AM
starts and ends with s, the middle is another word for gold which is what he has spent his life stealing
Posted by: Bill in AZ | January 05, 2006 at 11:31 AM
Here's my take on Tice. crankcase
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 11:41 AM
A duh moment on my part. Thanks, ya'll...
Posted by: Sue | January 05, 2006 at 11:44 AM
I give up. Is it Abramoff? He's certainly
spent his life stealing money.
Posted by: r flanagan | January 05, 2006 at 11:46 AM
was it good stealing or bad stealing?
Posted by: Bill in AZ | January 05, 2006 at 11:56 AM
Aw, go ahead, Clarice. Give us a REAL hint, like, Eastern European Jew, billionaire who(gasp) gives to Democrat-supporting organizations and is therefore a traitor to his (billionaire)class. The perfidy! Is nothing sacred anymore?
Posted by: Brendan | January 05, 2006 at 12:15 PM
That's funny, Brendan. I must be stuck in the early Reagan era. On to Kurdistan.
=============================================
Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 12:20 PM
You know, for a man who fled Eastern Europe, he's awfully interested in exerting influence other than one man-one vote in regime change. I find a very interesting schism in his actions, at least from my point of view. With money and popular energy he has helped effect what seems to me to be appropriate regime changes in Eastern Europe. So why do I object to his actions here? Cuz here they are anti-democratic.
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Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 12:30 PM
Did I miss something?
If Tice's "problem" stem from his suspicion a colleague may be a spy and he was rebuffed/reassigned (i.e. NOT fired, thanks lawyers!) when he relayed his suspicion,
would this not be the subject matter of his whistle?
Posted by: topsecretk9 | January 05, 2006 at 12:40 PM
Even he fears he's mad, and I don't think his fears are unrealistic. As a refugee he received free needed health care in the UK, and while he expressed his gratitude to them for that he repaid them by breaking their currency and cleaning up at it.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 12:47 PM
"Tice's public timeline begins in March 2005. The journos report that his private criticisms through the channels available to one in the intelligence community begin in 2003."
So in 2003 Tice was concerned about Chinese espionage,got demoted to the car pool, where he became concerned about alleged illegal wiretaps in 2005,what is he a credible whistleblower on,Chinese spies or unautherised mileage?
Posted by: PeterUK | January 05, 2006 at 12:53 PM
clarice: The Bank of England broke their currency. Soros just rode the speculation wave to wealth. There is no way he could have made such a spectacular fortune if the Bank of England wasn't so careless with their pound sterling currency control mechanisms.
He bet it all on the Washington Generals in the one game they actually beat the Harlem Globetrotters.
Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland | January 05, 2006 at 12:57 PM
I'm sorry, but I think this should be highlighted
"“At the time, I sent an e-mail to Mr. James (the person at DIA handling his complaint) questioning the competence of counterintelligence at FBI,” Tice wrote in a document submitted to the Inspector General. In the e-mail, he mentioned that he suspected that he was the subject of electronic monitoring.
Shortly after sending the e-mail, an NSA security officer ordered him to report for “a psychological evaluation” even though he had just gone through one nine months earlier. Tice believes James called NSA to ask them “to go after him” on their behalf."
Paranoia, deep destoyer....I feel sorry for his colleague he harassed.
Posted by: topsecretk9 | January 05, 2006 at 12:59 PM
Apparently, Peter, the illegal wiretaps were directed against him in 2005, so he'd qualify as an expert. It was insidious. Every engine bay he looked in was wired.
====================================
Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 01:05 PM
I hope the Committee that hears his tesimony is wearing their tinfoil hats so that the NSA mind rays don't get to them, too.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 01:07 PM
"starts and ends with s, the middle is another word for gold which is what he has spent his life stealing". Bill in AZ
Let's see. Could it be George Soros?
He spent WW2 as a Jew strying to outwit the nazis in Hungary ? Maybe he had to steal but I've never heard that alleged. Is that what Bill means ?
And ran the first real hedge fund for ten years.. But if that's stealing there are now about 5000 hedge fund operators who should go to prison.
And won billions gambling against the British Pound .Marxists call that stealing , but they don't read JOM.
Can't think he's done any stealing since ,
there'd be no place to put the money.
No it can't be Soros. It must be Jack.
Posted by: r flanagan | January 05, 2006 at 01:08 PM
It's funny how the left can so blithely embrace a corporate robber baron. Oh, but he's OUR corporate robber baron.
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Posted by: kim | January 05, 2006 at 01:10 PM
A few days ago I google checked that with a legal wiretap on the local crime boss the FBI can monitor a call to the out of state hitman, alias Lefty Icepick, without also having a warrant on Lefty. My point there was that applying FISA restrictions to criminal investiation would be unworkable.
AJStrata develops a different theme around the basic point. The use of mointored content from the original legal wiretap to obtain warrants for secondary identified targets. In my example that would be using the conversaion between the crime boss and Lefty Iceppick to obtain a warrant to put a tap on Lefty. The dispute is over using "tainted" content for probable cause on Lefty.
Good point ... check it out.
Posted by: boris | January 05, 2006 at 01:11 PM
Oh, but he's OUR corporate robber baron.
that was funny! Thanks Kim.
Posted by: topsecretk9 | January 05, 2006 at 01:12 PM
Anyone besides me hear Clarice cited and praised on hate radio for her Tice article a little while ago?
Posted by: Extraneus | January 05, 2006 at 01:15 PM
According to this US Law, Tice is going to jail:
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode05/usc_sec_05_00001213----000-.html
5 USC § 1213. Provisions relating to disclosures of violations of law, gross mismanagement, and certain other matters
(i) Except as specifically authorized under this section, the provisions of this section shall not be considered to authorize disclosure of any information by any agency or any person which is—
(1) specifically prohibited from disclosure by any other provision of law; or
(2) specifically required by Executive order to be kept secret in the interest of national defense or the conduct of foreign affairs.
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode05/usc_sec_05_00001213----000-.html
Posted by: Morris | January 05, 2006 at 01:30 PM
"One of our favorites," I think were the exact words somewhere around 12:30 EST, prior to a short discussion of a couple of her points. (Nice job!)
Posted by: Extraneus | January 05, 2006 at 01:32 PM
And according to this US law, the seditious NY Times reporters are also going to jail:
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode18/usc_sec_18_00000798----000-.html
TITLE 18 > PART I > CHAPTER 37 > § 798
§ 798. Disclosure of classified information
Whoever knowingly and willfully communicates, furnishes, transmits, or otherwise makes available to an unauthorized person, or publishes, or uses in any manner prejudicial to the safety or interest of the United States or for the benefit of any foreign government to the detriment of the United States any classified information ... concerning the communication intelligence activities of the United States or any foreign government ... shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both.
http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/html/uscode18/usc_sec_18_00000798----000-.html
Posted by: Morris | January 05, 2006 at 01:32 PM
I'm wondering if Tice is just a distraction, set up as a martyr to deflect attention...If DEMS start embracing Tice complete with pressers on the steps of Congress with tears in their eyes, then we'll know that is the case...these VIPs BUBBAS (Cecil's moniker) and their personal Legislators playing a separation game.
I wonder if he was sent to RIsen, as one of the dozen, but I think he is (either willingly or manipulate-dly) a patsy.
Posted by: topsecretk9 | January 05, 2006 at 01:39 PM
Makes sense to me. Barbara Mikulski already knew him back in 2003, and may have kept in touch, so it probably wouldn't have been too difficult to get his memo together and sent out within two days of the Risen story, but that would mean she knew of the dirty near-dozen.
I wonder how many they had when they first went to Bush with the story.
Posted by: Extraneus | January 05, 2006 at 02:25 PM
ts
Right on target. Ypur explanation makes perfect sense. Why Tice and why now if this all started in March 2005. Seems mighty convenient to me.
Posted by: maryrose | January 05, 2006 at 02:25 PM
Soros did not gamble on the Pound Sterling he instigated a run on it.The pound was tied to the European Exchange Rate Mechanism,probably at too high a rate,but the Treasury had no option but to support the Pound according to the rules.
Interestingly there was a run on the French Franc at the same time, which Germany supported, they refused to come to the assistance of Britain.
Men like Soros do not gamble,they play the market using information gained by analysis and insider information.In this case he knew that the Treasury had to keep up the value of the pound or leave the ERM,it is no different than betting when you know your opponents hand.
Posted by: PeterUK | January 05, 2006 at 02:27 PM
Ex,
I did. Rush Limbaugh quoting and citing our very own Clarice. ::grin::
Posted by: Sue | January 05, 2006 at 02:27 PM
Why does all of this malcontent spy stuff keeping swirling in the vicinty of one Larry Johnson. Maybe I am the one getting paranoid but ol Loony Larry seems to keep stirring it up.
Posted by: Gary Maxwell | January 05, 2006 at 02:29 PM
Gary
Scary Larry is a busy little rat, that's for sure.
---Here is an excerpt from LA Times last month
"One former NSA signals-intelligence analyst, Russell D. Tice, said the agency has long had such ability.
"I'm not allowed to say one way or another what the NSA is or is not doing. But the technology exists," said Tice, who left the NSA this year.
"Say Aunt Molly in Oklahoma calls her niece at an Army base in Germany and says, 'Isn't it horrible about those terrorists and Sept. 11?' " Tice said: That conversation would not only be captured by NSA satellites listening in on Germany — which is legal — but flagged and listened to by NSA analysts and possibly transcribed for further investigation.
"All you would have to do is move the vacuum cleaner a little to the left and begin sucking up the other end of that conversation," Tice said. "You move it a little more and you could be picking up everything people are saying from California to New York."
Posted by: topsecretk9 | January 05, 2006 at 02:36 PM
Who's funding this? VIPS McGovern was all over Wilson--even a co-speaker at the EPIC conference --and Johnson was all over the airways about poor Valerie whose career was ruined.
Reporters use them cause they're there and fit the preconceived (DNC) story line--like Kaus' "hamburger helper" push polls.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 02:37 PM
I wonder if anyone will make anything of the fact that two prominent members of the National Security Whistleblowers are Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern - two founding members of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).
Someone might also further inquire why those two worthies are in an organization for government whistleblowers when they didn't blow any whistles on anyone all the while they served in the CIA - an organization they have both been divorced from for several years.
I think that this has nothing to do with the FISA leaks but is rather an entirely new line of attack by the anti-Bush intel people.
I'm not enough of a conspiracy nut to believe that VIPS also orchestrated the NSA FISA leaking - but all of this leaking by intelligence professionals does seem to be nicely timed, doesn't it?
Posted by: Rick Moran | January 05, 2006 at 05:34 PM
It does to me, Rick..And here's another similarity:A pack of lies which cannot be answered without further disclosing classified information.
I don't say VIPS orchestrated this, but they are prominent members of this new organization and surely are giving advice, helping with press contacts, etc.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 05:41 PM
"Men like Soros do not gamble,they play the market using information gained by analysis and insider information."
Not to stray too far off topic here, but the above is demonstrably not true; Soros did not "know" that the pound must fall, he suspected as much, helped self-fulfill his wish with vigorous short-selling - but he most certainly could have turned out to be wrong (thus, it was a gamble). There is no "inside information" about the currencies markets, bulls and bears stake out their positions based on their (conflicting) technical and fundamental analysis. Soros (and every other short) was right that England couldn't support the pound indefinetely, while every long made a compelling (though incorrect) case as to why the pound would find traction and rise. Here's one way it's demonstrable that Soros owns no holy grail when it comes to his gambles - he's been short the dollar for quite some time now, and he's been losing spectacularly (Warren Buffet, another investor mistakeny presumed to be bulletproof, is on the same side of the trade, and his Berkshire Hathaway recently reported a 300 million quarterly loss from that short-dollar gamble).
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | January 05, 2006 at 05:51 PM
How valuable is it to a currency trader to have people throughout the government of a target country who owe him favors and have access to important economic information not otherwise available?
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 06:02 PM
hrtshpdbox
The ERM was not a normal currency arrangement per se,the Pound was tied the value of the Deutschmark artificially ase a precursor to the Euro.As I said the value of the pound was probably too high,there was no gamble that the Treasury would have to support the Pound in this instance.
The entire venture was political not fiscal,there was no way that the Pound could have fallen below its designated value and remain in the ERM,the Treasury had to support the Pound.
Overtures were made to Germany and Brussels for help,if it had been forthcomung,history might have been different,but it was not.
The economy recovered quite rapidly after Britains exit from the ERM,in the long run Soros et al did us a favour,but gamble it was not.
Posted by: PeterUK | January 05, 2006 at 06:18 PM
Clarice,
Enormous,just the word that the political will is there to support a currency is enough.
The dealings of Soros in Latin America should be some guide.
Posted by: PeterUK | January 05, 2006 at 06:22 PM
Didja notice that he sold off his Bolivian petro holdings but hung on to the other stuff just before Morales' election? Little parrot flying around with a message for him or not? Where do you think Morales got bucks for his campaign? I know what I think.
I think he buys up anyone anywhere he can..
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 06:34 PM
Tice is active in a movement that has, as one of its goals, to make it so intelligence agencies cannot revoke security clearance on 'whistleblowers'. Can't say I think that's a very good idea. Not that I think people with legitimate complaints should lose their livelihoods. But if, for example, you are wrong or you have an axe to grind- the agency needs to be able to cut you off.
http://federaltimes.com/index2.php?S=832118
Posted by: MayBee | January 05, 2006 at 06:39 PM
Of course, it's a preposterous idea. As preposterous as Risen's blinkered notion that the bureaucracy, not the elected officials, should determine foreign policy.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 06:47 PM
Agreed Clarice,
Soros would be the first of his kind in history if he did not.
I think it is a mistake to let him be portrayed as some kind of gambler with a lucky streak,he is a hustler and a manipulator.
Posted by: PeterUK | January 05, 2006 at 06:57 PM
Clarice ,re Soros and inside information.
I think you'd do better to listen to hrts..box rather than Peter UK.
Posted by: r flanagan | January 05, 2006 at 06:58 PM
Clarice
Having favors owed by those on high should be valuable, yes, but for the most part currency markets are transparent; it is, of course, illegal market manipulation for government officials to tip their hands selectively to traders about policy decisions. I don't know that there's any presumption that Soros was the recipient of inside information (doesn't sound likely).
PeterUK
I agree that the situation was special (even though most big currency moves are just as much political as fiscal) due to the impending Euro but, as I recall, the BP futures never stopped trading, so the market was open for business and price had been arrived at by the usual bid/offer. At that price, every person who figured that England would call it quits on the EU was matched up against someone who thought they'd stick with it and join. You know more about it than I do (I don't remember much of the details, actually) but not all of the longs could have been so spectacularly less informed than Soros - they'd just reached a different conclusion about what the outcome would be. True, though, without a pocketbook the size of Soros'to punish traders on the other side (and yes, very fortunate for all involved that England didn't become tethered quite so quickly to the EU).
Posted by: hrtshpdbox | January 05, 2006 at 07:00 PM
hrtshpdbox.
I am not in anyway implying that there was any illegality in this instance,but you must admit from Enron to this gentleman irregularities are not unknown...and we do know ths government departments do leak,do they not.
In the case of the Pound,the currency was deliberately targeted in its narrow band of exchange rate*,there were huge political implications,it cost the Chancellor of the Exchequer his job and eventually brought down the Government.It was the Government that was buying the pound.
* A similar problem arises with the Growth and Stability Pact,governments cannot devalue or print money,unless you are France or Germany ,in which case you just ignore it.But there is essentially little room for manoeuvre.
BTW
Perhaps the reason others did not pile in,is because the did have long term investments in the UK,not all are short term currency speculators.
Posted by: PeterUK | January 05, 2006 at 07:58 PM
Is Risen the new Linda Tripp?
Posted by: Monica | January 05, 2006 at 08:49 PM
Buried in the midle of Gertz's story:
"Mr. Tice said yesterday that he was not part of the intercept program."
Posted by: Karl | January 05, 2006 at 08:51 PM
That's "middle," of course.
BTW in the L.A. Times story quoted above, Tice admits it's legal to go after the international calls. But if you're desperate for publicity, I guess it's it's okay to jump on a bandwagon.
Posted by: Karl | January 05, 2006 at 08:59 PM
I was a bit disappointed to see Tony Schaeffer's - of Able Danger fame - name listed with Clarice's whistleblower "Cranks" (not to be confused with the venerable Baseball Crank).
It occured to me that, perhaps, there is some legal $$$ assistance associated with being part of this group. It would be an expensive proposition to defend one's self against the Feds.
Posted by: Lesley | January 05, 2006 at 09:12 PM
Is he "A Bad Moon Risen"?
Posted by: PeterUK | January 05, 2006 at 09:13 PM
Lesley, I didn't mean to suggest he is a crank and am sorry for any ambiguity..I just wanted to show names of those involved in this group that would be familiar to the reader..and to lead into the VIPS link. Sometime writing that fast I am not as unambiguous as I'd like to be.
Posted by: clarice | January 05, 2006 at 09:24 PM
"Mr. Tice said yesterday that he was not part of the intercept program."
But does he have second hand knowledge that he wants to report? Or is his concern about soemthing else?
Posted by: TM | January 05, 2006 at 10:59 PM
Clarice, it never occured to me that you would lump Col. Schaeffer with the VIPS - I've been reading you too long (grin) - however, it bothered me to know he was associated with them in ANY capacity (lie down with dogs, fleas, etc.) and I am searching my mind for an explanation. I scanned the National Security Whistleblowers Coalition website but couldn't find anything which quite satisfied my curiosity.
Posted by: Lesley | January 06, 2006 at 01:21 AM
Hey speaking of Sibel Edmunds, have you seen this:
http://wotisitgood4.blogspot.com/2006/01/
sibelology.html
apparently she emailed this guy (have no idea if it is true) and said,among other things:
Here is another dot for you:
(snip)
Joe Wilson met his wife, Plame, at ATC (American Turkish Council) in 1997. Look up his book, it is there.
Brewster Jennings, Plame, dealt with ATC, ATA, and Turkey a lot. Her UC job took him* to Turkey more than 4-5 times to Turkey between 1997 & 2001. This info has been printed on the front-page of main Turkish papers.
Ha. remember when we were all joking around that all roads lead to Turkey?
Although I have no idea what any of this is supposed to mean, if there's any basis in fact or how creatively disillusioned someone can become- like the guy that saw Plame and Spann hanging around his house.
Posted by: MayBee | January 07, 2006 at 01:01 AM
Not that anyone is reading this thread any more, but I want to clarify. The blog I linked to and his communication with Sibel makes her look to me a little...how can I say it kindly? That I suspect she got some of her documents from Lucy Ramirez?
Posted by: MayBee | January 07, 2006 at 01:35 AM
It's hard to see how Tice avoids prosecution after the Plem-Libby witch hunt. What he did actually endangered national security, unlike Libby. Will the MSM press as hard for his prosecution as it did for Libby's? I'm not holding my breath...
Posted by: marianna | January 07, 2006 at 02:43 PM
Easy, Marianna, he's got a decent defense in psychosis. The system will get him in treatment, once he's been discarded by ___ you fill in the blank.
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