Iran - Moderates Emerging?

The NY Times follows yesterday's Wash Times with its own story about the emergence of Iranian moderates unnerved by their country's confrontation with the United Nations over its nuclear program:

In Iran, Dissenting Voices Rise on Its Leaders' Nuclear Strategy

By MICHAEL SLACKMAN

TEHRAN, March 14 — Just weeks ago, the Iranian government's combative approach toward building a nuclear program produced rare public displays of unity here. Now, while the top leaders remain resolute in their course, cracks are opening both inside and outside the circles of power over the issue.

Some people in powerful positions have begun to insist that the confrontational tactics of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have been backfiring, making it harder instead of easier for Iran to develop a nuclear program.

This week, the United Nations Security Council is meeting to take up the Iranian nuclear program. That referral and, perhaps more important, Iran's inability so far to win Russia's unequivocal support for its plans have empowered critics of Mr. Ahmadinejad, according to political analysts with close ties to the government.

One senior Iranian official, who asked to remain anonymous because of the delicate nature of the issue, said: "I tell you, if what they were doing was working, we would say, 'Good.' " But, he added: "For 27 years after the revolution, America wanted to get Iran to the Security Council and America failed. In less than six months, Ahmadinejad did that."

One month ago, the same official had said with a laugh that those who thought the hard-line approach was a bad choice were staying silent because it appeared to be succeeding.

As usual in Iran, there are mixed signals, and the government does not always speak with the same voice.

The Times is not hyperventilating with optimism:

"There has been no sign that they will back down," said Ahmad Zeidabady, a political analyst and journalist. "At least Mr. Khamenei has said nothing that we can interpret that there will be change in the policies."

But, he said, "There is more criticism as it is becoming more clear that this policy is not working, especially by those who were in the previous negotiating team."

There are also signs that negotiators are starting to back away, however slightly, from a bare-knuckle strategy and that those who had initially opposed the president's style — but remained silent — are beginning to feel vindicated and are starting to speak up.

From their conclusion:

There is a consensus here that Iran has many cards to play — from its influence with the Shiites in Iraq to its closer ties to Hezbollah in Lebanon, to the prospect of using oil as a weapon. But the uncertainty of appearing before the Security Council, and the prospect of sanctions, has led some here to begin to rethink the wisdom of fighting the West head-on, analysts said.

Professor Hadian said he believed that for Iran to fundamentally change course the situation for Iran would have to first grow much worse.

"There are concerns to keep the situation calm," said Mr. Zeidabady, the journalist. "We have received orders not even to have headlines saying the case has been sent to the Security Council. Although the situation is very critical, they want to pretend that everything is normal. They do not want to show the country is coming under pressure and lose their supporters."

Comments

[Veeshir]

I doubt they could care any less about the Security Council.
Russia and China aren't going to allow anything to happen there anytime soon.
They've been playing the same card since this charade started. Delay, delay, delay.
Now, they're just posturing. "We're trying to reign in that madman, but he's freely elected so whatayagonnado?"
If they don't like what the President is doing, they will tell him to stop it. Just like the previous, "reformer" sock-puppet they had as president.

They're just trying to delay, delay, delay. The worst thing for the US and Israel is for this to actually go to the Security Council. Then, the Iranians can drag it out for a few more years until they actually have the bomb and then tell the UN to go screw and start lobbing bombs at Israel.

[R C Dean]

If you are in the Iranian government, playing for time while you bring your nukes on-line, you want to give the world a chance to hang back, wait and see.

In other words, you want them to believe that the long-awaited and never-arriving "moderates" are about to take over.

This is, in other words, exactly the story I would cultivate if I were the hardest of hard-line Iranian mullahs. Color me skeptical.

[Curious George]

That censorship is terrible! The "supporters" need to know what they are actually supporting, rather than being kept in the dark!

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