When The Levee Breaks

MKau tackles "topping" versus "breaching" a levee, which puts him way ahead of the MSM:

After Katrina, Bush said "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees." In the video, Patterico points out, Bush is warned by hurricane expert Max Mayfield that there's a chance the "levees will be topped." Topping is different than breaching, no? When a levee's "topped," or "overtopped," some water sloshes over it and into the city. Then the storm passes and that's it. When a levee's "breached," there's a hole in the levee and Lake Pontchartrain pours in the gap and keeps pouring in until the city is completely flooded.

Mickey's thought is that the media is deliberately suppressing the specifics of the warning in order to hype the "Bush Lied" meme.  Peter Baker and Spencer Hsu of the Friday WaPo illustrate that perfectly:

Three days after Hurricane Katrina wiped out most of New Orleans, President Bush appeared on television and said, "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees." His staff has spent the past six months trying to take back, modify or explain away those 10 words.

The release of a pre-storm video showing officials warning Bush during a conference call that the hurricane approaching the Gulf Coast posed a dire threat to the city and its levees has revived a dispute the White House had hoped to put behind it: Was the president misinformed, misspoken or misleading?

The video leaves little doubt that key people in government did anticipate that the levees might not hold.

Emphasis added, and gosh, may I have choice (d) - The President was spot on?  Thanks.  This story leaves little doubt that key editors at the Washington Post might not be doing their jobs.

For another perspective, i.e., a perspective that is either utterly ignorant or indifferent, here is CNN's coverage of the warning to Bush about the imminent threat to New Orleans last fall:

Bush has been accused of showing poor leadership after the disaster, and for indicating, along with Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, that no one could have anticipated that the flood protection system for New Orleans, Louisiana, would be breached.

However, transcripts from video conferences on August 28 and 29 show that National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield expressed concern that Katrina might push its storm surge over the city's levees and flood walls.

"I don't think anyone can tell you with confidence right now whether the levees will be topped or not, but that's obviously a very, very great concern," Mayfield says in one.

In a September 1 television interview, Bush said, "I don't think anyone anticipated the breach of the levees," a statement Chertoff agreed with three days later.

Does the CNN reporter even realize tha there is a difference between "topping" and "breaching" a levee?  I don't know.

But here's a smart guy who might be expected to make these fine distinctions - PKru himself:

Many people have now seen the video of the briefing Mr. Bush received before Hurricane Katrina struck. Much has been made of the revelation that Mr. Bush was dishonest when he claimed, a few days later, that nobody anticipated the breach of the levees.

On the flip side, let's also give props to Scott Shane and David Kirkpatrick of the NY Times, who did *NOT* mangle this story yesterday.

And a bonus - this bit from the briefing seems to be underplayed.  Max Mayfield is speaking for the National Hurricane Center at an August 28 briefing:

"And the current track and the forecast we have now suggests that there will be minimal flooding in the city of New Orleans itself, but we've always said that the storm surge model is only accurate within about 20 percent.

If that track were to deviate just a little to the west it would -- it makes all the difference in the world.  I do expect there will be some levees over top even out here in the western portions where the airport is."

MORE:  The Captain has lots, including some HKur coverage.  And more excerpts from the fateful "I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees" interview with Diane Sawyer is here.  Let's clip this:

"I don't think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees. They did anticipate a serious storm. But these levees got breached. And as a result, much of New Orleans is flooded. And now we are having to deal with it and will."

Finally, the White House issues a press release to "set the record straight", but they skip right past this issue.

Here is some background on the levee failures and successes in New Orleans - the distinction between topping and breaching is clear. lest there were skeptics.

CLARITY:  Via Matt Drudge, from the AP:

Clarification: Katrina-Video story
ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON (AP) _ In a March 1 story, The Associated Press reported that federal disaster officials warned President Bush and his homeland security chief before Hurricane Katrina struck that the storm could breach levees in New Orleans, citing confidential video footage of an Aug. 28 briefing among U.S. officials.

The Army Corps of Engineers considers a breach a hole developing in a levee rather than an overrun. The story should have made clear that Bush was warned about floodwaters overrunning the levees, rather than the levees breaking.

The day before the storm hit, Bush was told there were grave concerns that the levees could be overrun. It wasn't until the next morning, as the storm was hitting, that Michael Brown, then head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said Bush had inquired about reports of breaches. Bush did not participate in that briefing.

A NOTE:  Some commenters seem to think that because Bush was briefed about the possibility of breaches at *other* meetings, it is OK for the media to misrepresent the significance of the meeting on which they are reporting.  FWIW, these commenters seem to be representatives of the self-invented reality community.

But let's turn that logic around and imagine that Bush really did understand the difference between overtopping and breaching, even if his critics do not.  Let's also acknowledege that (a) Bush was speaking in a live interview, not delivering a legal brief, and (b) an accepted meaning of "anticipate" is "expect".

Would the media even have begun to offer up this latest "Bush lied" if he had said something ever so slightly different to Diana Sawyer:

"I don't think anybody [expected] the breach of the levees - I know the National Hurricane Center predicted overtopping but not breaching. They did anticipate a serious storm."

And a last thought - saying that Bush did not lie about this is different from saying that the Federal response to Katrina was A-OK.

Comments

[Other Tom]

To answer Mickey Kaus's rhetorical question, I believe it is entirely intentional. I think every major news organization in the US has long since decided that its job is advocacy, and facts be damned. There are far, far too many instances of this kind of thing for it to be accidental. And notice that the inaccuracies fall in one direction (anti-Bush) in every case.

[topsecretk9]

-its job is advocacy, and facts be damned.--

The "proxy" brigade!

Kaus also asks why the WH press office doesn't push this more?

Oh okay. Anytime the Press office gets aggressive on a point it just means they are hiding something, code and proof for the "proxies" that Bush lying more.

[Cecil Turner]

Considering there is video of Gov Blanco saying it was "only" topping even after the breach, you'd think folks would twig to the difference (H/T Instapundit):

"We keep getting reports in some places that maybe water is coming over the levees," Gov. Kathleen Blanco said shortly after noon on Aug. 29, according to the video. "We heard a report unconfirmed, I think, we have not breached the levee. I think we have not breached the levee at this time."

Sure seems to support the "intentional" interpretation.

[clarice]

It is true that even the best press office would have a hard time breaking thru this bias, but the truth is the Administration's weakest point is its communications people who are dreadful.

It would help if the President had more WH dinners, invitations to which he could reserve for fairer reporters as other Administrations had done, but would you care to break bread with these people?

[TexasToast]

Are you actually trying to spin this as MSM overreach?

It is awfully hard to reverse the spin, isn’t it? Keep hope alive! ;)

Spin – I sure love pickin’ the guitar! Anybody know that Hall and Oates song, “Out of Touch”?

Re - Spin – Heck of a job, Brownie! He’s been working 24/7! I saw it from 25000 feet!

Re – Re – Spin – Trent Lott sure has…erm …had a nice house.

Re- Re – Re - Spin – Its all your fault, Brownie! – Why didn’t you warn us!

Re – Re – Re – Re – Spin – Its still your fault, Brownie – You didn’t yell loud enough, you didn’t say the word “breach”, and you made me listen to the weatherman. Everybody knows you cant trust the weatherman.!

[Dwilkers]

You're behind TM. That latest spin I'm seeing from the left is there is no *effective* difference between "over-topping" and "breaching", or variations on that theme.

So you see its really just fake but accurate. Or something.

[Sue]

Texas Toast,

If it is as bad as all that, why the need to spin from the MSM? The truth should do it on its own. Right?

[Sue]

Didn't the WH release a report saying they failed in their Katrina preparations? Why the hell is this a new story? They shut down everything 9/11. And continue to regurgitate old news and new news. It happened just the other day with NY Daily News.

[BN]

Do you guys really think the "topping" versus "breaching" argument is going to make a difference to anyone who isn't a partisan? I don't see how defending Bush's, "I don't think anyone anticipated the breach of the levees," statement with a dictionary is going to win any hearts and minds.

really hope the White House starts to use the "topping" versus "breaching" argument because it is possibly the worst argument to use if you want to claim the President was

[Al]

Finally, the White House issues a press release to "set the record straight", but they skip right past this issue.

This is the stupidest White House of all time.

[Aaron Adams]

Before Katrina Struck, Michael Brown Warned Bush ‘The Levees Could Actually Breach’

On September 1, two days after the storm hit, President Bush said “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees.” Last night on CNN, former FEMA Director Michael Brown said he personally warned President Bush the levees could breach before the storm hit:

MESERVE: In the transcripts of the 29th briefing, you talk about conversations you had that morning with the president. This is the day of landfall…How did the president know to ask about breaches of the levees? Did he have reports in hand at that time already that that had happened in New Orleans?

BROWN: There’s no question in my mind he probably had those reports, because we were feeding in the Homeland Security Operations Center, into the White House sit room, all of the information that we were getting. So he had to have had that information. Plus, I think the president knew from our earlier conversations that that was one of my concerns, that the levees could actually breach.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0603/02/sitroom.03.html

[noah]

Memes are hard to kill. Earlier this week, Fox radio was still talking about the ports deal in terms of DPW taking over 6 ports! The main problem as I see it that most news organizations are dependent on the AP which is hopelessly biased.

Quoted at Powerline: "For months, their tough-on-terror image has been tarnished by the revelation that the president authorized a secret domestic wiretapping program. The report in December gave Democrats ammunition for their charge that the Bush administration had run amok in its zeal to root out terrorists."

From a story about the vote to re-authorize the Patriot Act!!

[Rick Ballard]

"This is the stupidest White House of all time."

Boy, ain't that the truth. Why, it's as if everyone at the WH gets up every morning and makes a decision as to what would be the best way to tell the MSM "Screw you, you don't speak for the people and our supporters know that if you're lips are moving your lying."

That Bush is the dumbest man ever to have been elected twice as Governor of Texas and twice as President of the United States. What a dolt.

[noah]

AA, but some in the media are either deliberately or ignorantly reporting on the video and what it means: in the video the discussion is about over-topping not breaching. In fact no LEVEES were breached...canals were breached.

Clearly the media is only too willing to elevate every molehill to mountain status.

[clarice]

The co-author of the AP piece that so twisted the video re breaching/overtopping BTW was a 60 minutes producer on the TANG show. You can't keep a good propagandist down.

[Aaron Adams]

noah: Canals in NOLA are lined by levees. The levees along the 17th St Canal, The Lincoln Canal and the Industial Canal all were breached.

When Gov. Blanco said, early on the 29th that unconfirmed reports indicated the levees were not breached, events and reports soon disabused that erroneous statement. Her problem was the absolute chaotic state of non-military communication into and out of NOLA in the immediate aftermath.

Brown briefed Bush about the potential for the breech of the leveees before the event occurred, according to him.

[clarice]

AP author/CBS 6o Minutes II producer. http://wizbangblog.com/

[owl]

Idiots. The WH has had the most awful PR from the jump go on every issue and they refused to fight back the attacks.

Only one thing would have saved Bush. No two. He should have called in the calvary and TOOK LA. His other option would have went on camera and pointed his finger at Blanco. Those were the only 2 options.

Baton Rouge....the capitol of LA sits 2 hours up the road from NO. Before the storm, it was Blanco and Nagin's responsibilty to get those people out of there. Bush had called them and begged them to issue that evacuation order. He signed the releases before the storm. His job was over. It was then time for The Plan to work.

Nagin and Blanco only took this thing half seriously. Then they sat on the buses they had in NO. Then they did not have the sense God gave a goose to use the hundreds of buses TWO hours away. They stopped the food and water from going in.......they put police on the bridges to keep any from coming out.

Where was Senator Mary Landieu and Lt Gov Mitch Landieu? Why would they not take those people out of there? Why did they refuse to bring them into Baton Rouge?

That hurricane wiped out 3 states but what we all remember is the trapped poor black faces. Why? Who made those pictures possible to keep running for days?

The Democrats (Blanco/Landieu) in cahoots with MSM. Next time.....Bush will invade but it would sure have helped if he had at least pointed at these slimeballs. I say slimeball because anyone that would do what they did.......deliberately........

It does not take a genius to find buses in Baton Rouge. I slightly know the area and even I could have gotten those people out....Baton Rouge was refusing to take them. That simple.

[Rick Ballard]

"Her problem was the absolute chaotic state of non-military communication into and out of NOLA in the immediate aftermath."

And the responsibility for that lies where?

Let us assume that a President "knows" (to the extent possible) that the levees were going to be either topped or breached - Does he have statutory authority to directly intervene in any way? Does a declaration of a state of emergency without cession of State control of emergency response providers by the State's governor allow any action which was not taken by the President?

Or can a President by declaration of an emergency seize power within a state and kick all state officials to the curb?

[AB]

More comedy gold. I think, now that the word "conservative" has no actual political definition, blogs like this are basically warehouses for apologies, distractions, obfuscations and nitpicking. One stop shopping for Admin CYA excuses.

Breaching vs. Topping? And the definition of "is" is what exactly? You should just be happy that eeevil biased big old meanie MSM isn't reporting how many officials lied to Congress under oath that these freaking transcripts didn't even exist!

It's becoming a clown act, y'all. Perception is reality, remember? This freak show of an administration took power that way, and you know what they say about those who live by the sword. Let's see how long you can keep stoking that arrogance you've gotten so fat and comfy with. Hint: start planning where in the rat pack you want to be now that the ship is sinking.

[clarice]

No. He can't. And yet despite this it turned into the most amazing rescue of the most people in the shortest time ever. (Popular Mechanics) And it was because Americans and the military just go do it.

[Jim Miller]

There's an important distinction often ommitted from the news stories. What failed in New Orleans was, technically, not levees, but flood walls. The two have different constructions and different vulnerabilities.

Let me repeat this because I have seen it reported wrongly, approximately a thousand times: The levees protecing New Orleans were not breached, and did not fail. What failed were floodwalls along three canals.

[noah]

AB...declares rhetorical victory without reference to a single fact.

The transcripts and video were released back in August!!!!!

[clarice]

More on the DNC/Soros/Rathergate connections of the fraudulent AP piece. http://www.rathergate.com/

[TexasToast]

The co-author of the AP piece that so twisted the video re breaching/overtopping BTW was a 60 minutes producer on the TANG show. You can't keep a good propagandist down.

You would certainly know, Clarice. Did Barbara send you the memo?

This defense has the same MO as the TANG defense – Give the faithful something to hang their hat on by finding something of tangential importance and making it the issue combined with a liberal dose of ad hom attacks against the “MSM”.

It happens again and again (with varying degrees of success). Examples.

1. Inoculate the issue of GWB’s guard service (or lack thereof) by the forged memos, and assert that the whole issue shows MSM bias.

2. Inoculate the issue of the utter failure of the Federal (and White House) response to Katrina by insisting that “breach” vs “overtop” makes a substantial difference and assert that the “failure” to emphasize this “difference” shows MSM bias.

3. Inoculate the issue of the Iraqi insurgency by insisting that domestic opposition to the war in Iraq was a proximate cause of the insurgency and that not balancing the bad news from Iraq with “good news” shows MSM bias.

There are many many more.

[Aaron Adams]

Jim:

You're partially correct and partially incorrect. The floodwalls failed and were breeched along all three canals. However, the levee, upon which the floodwall was constructed along the 17th St Canal, failed (it shifted approximately 40ft) and was therefore breeched, and the levee along the Industrial Canal failed and was therefore breeched in the same manner (possible contributing cause was scouring as a result of earlier overtopping.

Really, some of you folks are voicing opinions as opposed to knowing the facts; believing opinions doesn't magically transform them into objective reality.

I am a victim of Hurricane Katrina. I live in Pass Christian, MS., am intimately familiar with NOLA and have kept up with the news about the storm and its aft6ermath with an intesity I doubt any of the commenters here could possibly match, if for no other reason than my house, my mother's house, all of my neighbors' houses, my business (indeed every single business in Pass Christian, MS., was destroyed, wiped out, by Katrina) all of the businesses in my town and all of the towns west of here...

I have a lot of time on my hands. I pay attention.

[Rick Ballard]

Jim,

AFAICT, the profound ignorance of the MSM and the population upon which it depends for sustenance is not susceptible to correction by fact. These are, after all, the same ignoramuses who can't distinguish port security from a freight terminal.

Good for you for continuing to clarify in the face of such an overwhelming display of ignorance by the press.

I still don't quite follow as to why the WH is charged with correcting deficiencies of intellect exhibited by the scribblers. There isn't enough butcher paper nor crayons in the world to do the job.

[noah]

TT...absurd is the word that comes to mind after reading your post...the media is confused or malicious: DPW will control 6 US ports, Bush lied when he said no one anticipated levee breaches, Bush lied when he said the infamous 16 words, etc.

Bush lied, lied, lied, lied,.....

But it is you that is the liar and you know it. But Greenwald assures you that its ok.

Read Heninger's article at Opinion journal. He's talking about you.

[Tollhouse]

The media like a mad dog on a short leash is about to come up short again with a violent lurch.

The faith-based reality crew get another bellyful of whatever it is that they are subsisting on.

The Dude abides.

[Other Tom]

The fundamental difference between topping and breaching is so succinctly stated by Kaus that it takes a moron not to grasp it. It's the difference between a storm surge temporarily coming over the wall and Lake Ponchartrain entering the city.

[j.west]

Rick,

During the Senate hearings on Katrina, the head of Louisiana Homeland Security was asked about the lack of interoperable communications equipment. He stated that it would have taken $24 million to equip the first responders, local and state officials.

The question was then asked why Louisiana hadn’t bought the equipment, considering that they had $56 million in unspent Homeland Security Grant funds, dating back to 2002, that were specifically meant for emergency interoperable communications gear, along with certain other equipment. He had no idea why the purchases never took place.

Louisiana (along with every other state) receives these grant funds that pay 100% of the cost of equipment found on the Authorized Equipment List (AEL). The AEL places high priority on personal protective equipment and interoperable communications. For the FY06 year, Louisiana will get over $64 million.

If you want to take a look at what equipment is available for purchase through this program (which is administered through the Department of Justice), go to:

http://www1.rkb.mipt.org/

Of course, you won’t hear a word about any of this in the media.

[Seixon]

I just sent emails to every large news source in Norway, asking them why they pretended there was no difference between "topped" and "breached".

I have not received a single reply.

They know they are full of it, and they don't care.

[noah]

Jeff Goldstein also has good piece on the Left's denial of its role in the "metanarrative" which ironically enough the Left invented!!

[Tollhouse]

The metanarrative being that since Bush defeated a known liar in 2000, we must make him out to be an even greater liar by defining downward the simple words of the English language to fit our predetermined result.

When you really think about it, the same crew for whom the meaning of "is" is fungible, is the same crew that percieves overtopping to be the same as breaching and not imminent to be imminent.

At least they are consistent.

[cathyf]

Just a little basic logic which will of course be lost on the stupidest among us:

• As long as the levees are intact any water which finds its way to the city side of the geography can be pumped over the top of a levee into a canal or the lake.
• Water finds its way to the city side of the system all the time. It's called "rain" for anyone who is retarded or a journalist. (Is there any difference?)
• The most significant hurricaine flooding danger historically in NOLA has been that the power lines are felled by the storm, which knocks out the pumps, so all the hurricane rains that fall from clouds over the city can't be pumped into the canal/lake.
• If X gallons of water falls from clouds onto the city, and Y gallons of water flows into the city over the tops of levees, then as long as the levees are intact this is no different at all from the situation where (X+Y) gallons of water falls as rain and there is no overtopping at all.

New Orleans has been rained on before, and there has been flooding before, and the power has failed before. Anyone who managed to pull a C in junior-high science (which is to say, most everybod but journalists) can figure out that overtopping is just an additive effect to rainfall with no qualitative difference, while breaching is a completely different (and catastrophic) scenario.

cathy :-)

[jerry]

Rick:

Yes, the President can push state and local governments aside and have the feds take over. He could have evoked the Insurrection Act and declared marshal law. Under the Insurrection Act the Bill of Rights and most other Constitutional protections are suspended. He also could have invoked the Militia Act and placed all males between the age of 16 and 55 at the disposal of the JTF-Civil support.

Here are some of the things that could have happened if he had chosen this route.

People are forcibly removed from their homes and those that resist are place under arrest.

Mayor Nagin is taken into custody for opposing the federal takeover of his City. During this event members of the press were arrested while trying to cover the story and charged with disobedience of a lawful order to disperse under military law.

Members of the Police Department who fail to comply with orders by military authorities are also arrested and several were killed and wounded while resisting the federal takeover. The remainder were disarmed and arrested. About 100 officers, who attempt to leave with their families, are arrested and charged with dissertation.

Looters are shot on sight.

Some prisoners at the city jail become disorderly and revolt. The revolt is put down and a few dozen agitators are put up against the wall and shot.

I could go on but you should get the idea.

Now imagine in this alternative universe that the levees do not fail. Just imagine the outcry on the left about Bush being a dictator. KOS would scream that this is dress rehearsal for national martial law in either 2006 or 2008.

[jerry]

Aaron:

I feel for your loss, however, the undermining by topping theory has long been since put to rest. There is no evidence that the levees were ever topped. The current theory is that the levees eroded to the point where the increased water pressure caused them to fail due to faulty engineering and/or construction.

[AB]

Could I please get a preview of the official CYA for why Bush made that Disneyland appearance promising to rebuild New Orleans, yet New Orleans is still a stinking septic wasteland six months later?

You guys crank these excuses out like sausages. Were you always this talented or has necessity been the mother of invention?

[maryrose]

AARon Adams:
I am sorry for your losses and those of your family. I hope with help from the government and your good governor Barbour you will be on the road to recovery soon. All the best.

[Florence Schmieg]

So, I have come to the conclusion that in January, 2009 when the next president is inaugurated, all problems of the world will end. I know this now because the media have assured me that everything negative that happens anywhere is due to President Bush. So when nirvana arrives, I am sure they will alert me!!

[noah]

I always thought Brown was a scapegoat and now some in the media are suggesting that he was. So the new meme in a slow news week will be that once again Bush is at fault for firing him!! (Conveniently forgetting who scapegoated him to begin with).

Just more proof that Henninger is right...our politics are becoming impossible.

[clarice]

He's a hero now because of one thing only:He's critical of the Administration.

[Sven]

There is no evidence that the levees were ever topped.

From the Times-Picayune:

Katrina proved overtopping is the far more serious threat to the metro area, investigators said. Evidence clearly showed overtopping caused the Industrial Canal I-wall collapse that flooded much of the 9th Ward and parts of St. Bernard Parish. Overtopping also was the main cause of the wholesale disintegration of the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet levee, which allowed Lake Borgne to rush over much of northern St. Bernard Parish, engineers said.

[noah]

Actually Florence, Howard Dean has already assured us that is precisely what will happen...all the world's problems will be magically solved because Dems wish to solve them!

[Tollhouse]

You can't rebuild a city, good as new in 6 months, try being realistic.

[Tollhouse]

Plus I'm told that stench was there before the hurricane.

[maryrose]

AB;
They were able to hold their Mardi Gras celebrations. Good on then for not succombing to your defeatist attitude.
Note to A God helps those who help themselves. We held bakesales and drives to raise money; what have you done lately to help?

[noah]

AB...ok smartass explain for the good people of NO how to go about rebuilding, I understand they are having a hard time figuring out what to do. Example: what does one do about rebuilding slums? Think about it a little before you shoot off your mouth.

[jerry]

Sven:

What is the date of the newspaper article? I have seen several stories and Discovery Channel like shows that say they levees were never topped.

[Sven]

Sorry. I tried to link to the article but must have munged it. The date is January 30, 2006.

http://tinyurl.com/ax8ct

[cathyf]

If the storm had taken the worst-case path, and it hadn't weakened, then there would have absolutely been overtopping. And in the lowest spots, the overtopping would have meant massive amounts of water coming over the walls and the errosive effect of all of that moving water which would have indeed breeched the walls. (This happened all along the Mississippi in 1993.)

This would have happened in hundreds of places, not just the few weak-soil spots where the city had implemented the typical graft-and-corruption engineering and building practices of LA. What we saw after Katrina was a slow-motion disaster which didn't start putting people at immediate risk until hours after the hurricane departed. If the levees had breeched in hundreds of places, then there would have been all of that flooding while the winds were still blowing. And there would have been no attics to take shelter in if they had all been blown into rubble by the cat 5 winds, still blowing as the floodwaters reached 10, 15, 20 feet or more.

As near as I can tell, in very round numbers, of the half-million people in NOLA, 400K left, 35K were rescued after the storm, and 65K managed to keep themselves going. If NOLA had taken the direct hit of a CAT 5 storm, or even the hit that Aaron and his neighbors took, the dead would have numbered in the tens of thousands. The direct hit which had a very high probability in the models just 2-3 days before landfall.

If you dodge a bullet, and you get a little bruise bumping something while you do it, you still dodged the bullet. 35 thousand people rescued from rooftops, 80% of the city under water is a "little bruise" compared to what very nearly did happen to NOLA.

cathy :-)

[noah]

TT,

"3. Inoculate the issue of the Iraqi insurgency by insisting that domestic opposition to the war in Iraq was a proximate cause of the insurgency and that not balancing the bad news from Iraq with “good news” shows MSM bias."

Please cite a source for this lie (the proximate cause part).

Back to Goldstein's argument: the Left denies any responsibility for its part in the construcion of the metanarrative, which seems to deny that any of their howling and whining has anything to with the debates we have here, in the press, in the Congress, etc. The insurgents in Iraq cannot help but be pleased and encouraged by the stance of the left. But we must not question your patriotism...but I do.

[Keith, Indy]

And where is the follow-up with Brown...

MESERVE: In the transcripts of the 29th briefing, you talk about conversations you had that morning with the president. This is the day of landfall…How did the president know to ask about breaches of the levees? Did he have reports in hand at that time already that that had happened in New Orleans?

BROWN: There’s no question in my mind he probably had those reports, because we were feeding in the Homeland Security Operations Center, into the White House sit room, all of the information that we were getting. So he had to have had that information. Plus, I think the president knew from our earlier conversations that that was one of my concerns, that the levees could actually breach.

FOLLOW-UP: And what did you do when you learned that the levees were being breached???

[Javani]

"1. Inoculate the issue of GWB’s guard service (or lack thereof) by the forged memos, and assert that the whole issue shows MSM bias. Etc. etc."

Dear Texas Toast:

Your counter-narrative is a whirlpool of specious causalities. Why not just blame "Rove?" It's much easier.

[Sue]

Is http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2006/03/when_the_levee_.html#comment-14615798>this your response to my question? If so, it doesn't answer the question I asked.

[Chris]

All these comments and no one has made a comment on the title.

Now, cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do you no good,
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to move.

Yes, a Led Zeppelin lyric that is both on-topic and insightful.

[Artemus]

Here is another link from October that says some of the NOLA levees failed because they were topped. http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-10-10-hurricane-levees_x.htm

[lj]

This great News
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,186285,00.html ">Mardi Gras Climaxes with Fat Tuesday Celebrations

[noah]

So I guess the Bush admin was worrying about the right thing: topping not breaching. Whatever. The press will find a way to impugn Bush's integrity no matter what actually happened.

[Artemus]

Here is a tinyurl of the link I tried to give above:
http://tinyurl.com/7tdcy

[geoff]

Bush's choice of the word "breaching" which may or may not have some equivalence to "topping," is irrelevant. It is clear that his point was that nobody anticipated the failure mode that occurred, and studying the supposedly damning transcript, it is clear that nobody did.

[Terrye]

Same old same old.

The truth is if the local authorities had evacuated people we would not be talking about this today..

And while it might be difficult for people to understand this, hurricanes are natural disasters..get it? Bush does not control the weather.

[owl]

The truth is if the local authorities had evacuated people we would not be talking about this today..

Now that's the truth but also, if the ones that were trapped had been let out....

A Adams....sorry for your loss. Had to go look up Pass Christian, MS since we sure didn't see it on the news.

I keep looking at the pictures today and listening to all the problems. The thousands of trailors in AR......so what I want to know......Why the devil doesn't someone in the state cut through the red tape to allow what needs to be done? After finding out a few facts, many of the locales did not WANT them, and others could not have trailors. So if people are homeless, why are the locals not fixing a place to put these things so at least people have a place to live? I say the State Senators could cut through the red tape that makes people's lives so much more miserable.

[Chris]

http://www.imao.us/archives/003863.html>Little do you know Terrye...

[Rick Ballard]

Owl,

You're moving voters around - think cheap politics in LA - you'll never go wrong. Some cheap county pol wants X more of the "right kind" of voter and if the "right kind" aren't identifiable, well then he damn sure doesn't want to take a chance on getting the "wrong kind" does he?

And if you're talking Ninth Ward rentseekers - well, they're only wanted in the Ninth Ward - on election day.

Btw - the trailers are mandated by the Stafford Act as the primary type of housing to be provided in this type of emergency. It's a statutory mandate - not an election by Fed bureaucrats. And siting is local business - not the business of the Feds.

[SteveMG]

AB:
yet New Orleans is still a stinking septic wasteland six months later?

No its not. I was just there last weekend and while parts of it (the poorer and lower lying areas) are still on its knees, a larger part is starting to stir a bit. Not a great deal, admittedly because a lot of businesses can't find workers. Because the workers can't find housing in the city.

Part of the problem is that people aren't coming back. The population of the city proper will be greatly diminished. The 'burbs are doing pretty good (Metairie, for example).

And folks, by no standard is it a stinking septic wasteland.

AB, the harder hit areas look like Gulfport/Biloxi along the shore areas (I was there in February visiting my father's gravesite at the National Cemeter). No stores opened and the buildings flattened, but most of the debris has been removed.

SMG

[noah]

queoff, but what does it matter whether or not Bush or anyone else can predict future events not under their control?

[maryrose]

Uh oh Brownie is on Hardball with Matthews let the official rehab begin!

[rob]

Typical Republican BS. Here is what Brownie said:

MESERVE: In the transcripts of the 29th briefing, you talk about conversations you had that morning with the president. This is the day of landfall…How did the president know to ask about breaches of the levees? Did he have reports in hand at that time already that that had happened in New Orleans?

BROWN: There’s no question in my mind he probably had those reports, because we were feeding in the Homeland Security Operations Center, into the White House sit room, all of the information that we were getting. So he had to have had that information. Plus, I think the president knew from our earlier conversations that that was one of my concerns, that the levees could actually breach.

[Lew Clark]

And where did personal responsibility go? I was offered a job in New Orleans that was a promotion. I didn't take it. Why, because I didn't want to drown, be blown away or, at best loose my house and everything I owned in the "big one". Never once did I say to myself "I'll do it, because if the big one hits, the president has to build me a really nice house on top of a mountain.
Where, pray tell, is it written in the constitution, that the president well be my mama and I get to stay 3 years old?

[geoff]

Brown's quote of undated conversations with no real indication of how prominent his concerns or cautions were is not very compelling as it stands, Rob's hysteria notwithstanding. Here's a typical view from shortly after the disaster (San Diego Union-Tribune, 9/2/05):

Army Corps personnel, in charge of maintaining the levees in New Orleans, started to secure the locks, floodgates and other equipment so it could better weather the impact, said Greg Breerwood, deputy district engineer for project management at the Army Corps of Engineers.

"We knew if it was going to be a Category 5, some levees and some flood walls would be overtopped," he said. "We never did think they would actually be breached. I don't think anyone raised the question that the city would be flooded to the magnitude it was now."

[geoff]

Then we have Brown's interview in the NYT (9/15/05):

In his first extensive interview since resigning as FEMA director on Monday under intense criticism, Mr. Brown declined to blame President Bush or the White House for his removal or for the flawed response.

"I truly believed the White House was not at fault here," he said.

[clarice]

Is it just me or is Wilson's claim the the President must have gotten his reports an echo of Wilson's that his report must have made it right to Cheney and Bush?

[CorgiMom]

What difference does it make whether the levees or floodwalls or canals were breeched or topped or were taken out by runaway barges? If Archangel Michael himself had visited George Bush to tell him about this even 6 MONTHS prior to the hurricane what could he have done? Forced the local governments to do their jobs? Enforced martial law? I was in N.O. this weekend as well and I have spent about half my life there and I can assure you the same people that were trapped in houses and in the SuperDome would still have been in the same place no matter what warning they had. And I agree, N.O. is coming back and it is certainly NOT a stinking, septic wasteland.

[Tollhouse]

The difference is that the Demo meme is that Bush is a liar and anything they can invent is being deployed.

[Mike]

Would it be utterly cruel of me to note the fun we could all be having if someone suddenly decided to start using "broached" instead of "breached"?

[owl]

Just watched the Brownie/Matthews. He does NOT blame the President. Granted he was rehab for himself, but this was a good program and actually answered some questions. Of course, I have never thought Brownie was the bad guy in this soap opera.

Only one person had a)authority b)resources c)location. Blanco.

[PeterUK]

"If Archangel Michael himself had visited George Bush to tell him about this even 6 MONTHS prior to the hurricane what could he have done?"

This is true,well actually it was the Arcangel Gabriel who visited the President saying, "You will be sorely tested George,but there is nothing you can do,this one is ours".

[Doug]

Greg Breerwood, deputy district engineer for project management at the Army Corps of Engineers

"We knew if it was going to be a Category 5, some levees and some flood walls would be overtopped," he said. "We never did think they would actually be breached. I don't think anyone raised the question that the city would be flooded to the magnitude it was now."

His statement either reflects outright incompentace or a bald-faced lie. Except for the Mississippi River levees, the levees and flood walls around New Orleans were not built to withstand overtopping per design-basis. They weren't armored for overtopping. Storm surge from a Cat 5 would have certainly overtopped and caused breaching of levees and flood walls. I live 10 miles west of New Orleans' airport and I knew that before Katrina hit.

I think the story about the briefings should be about the apparent fact that no one was talking about the overtopping and then breaching. At the time of the briefings, overtopping and levee failure afterwards leading to significant flooding was highly likely. I am sure MSM could find a lot of levee experts that would have given them the same opinion (like 'It just amazes me that given the strenght of the storm that no one even mentioned it. It just doesn't border on incompentance, it leapfrogs it.'). Of course, that wouldn't fit in with its all Bush's fault theme.

The next story should be about the design basis for the levees. In 1964 or 1965, the National Hurricane Center gave the design basis: a once-in-300-year hurricane would bring 12.5 feet of storm surge to the city. Seeing as there might bave been some advances in the understanding of hurricanes and storm surge (sarcasm warning here)in the past 40 years, they might have come up with a difference answer even before Katrina. I did not know the design basis. I would have thought that they would periodically update the estimate at least.

We are currently building levees in St Charles Parish (20 miles upriver from New Orleans) to a design basis that is 40-years old. There is something seriously wrong within the Army Corps of Engineers.

[kim]

Watch soon for Ned's commentary on the Hockey Stick Fight on Climateaudit.org in the 'Off to Washington' thread.

Is there audio of the guv and the prez conversing?
================================================

[kim]

AA, you sound like a once and perhaps future poster appellated Po' Boy. He brought home the immediacy of the disaster, just as you do.
=========================================

[clarice]

Ap tidies up the story--overtopping v breach--Now to fire the three DNC flacks who wrote it.******** WASHINGTON (AP) _ In a March 1 story, The Associated Press reported that federal disaster officials warned President Bush and his homeland security chief before Hurricane Katrina struck that the storm could breach levees in New Orleans, citing confidential video footage of an Aug. 28 briefing among U.S. officials.

The Army Corps of Engineers considers a breach a hole developing in a levee rather than an overrun. The story should have made clear that Bush was warned about floodwaters overrunning the levees, rather than the levees breaking.

The day before the storm hit, Bush was told there were grave concerns that the levees could be overrun. It wasn't until the next morning, as the storm was hitting, that Michael Brown, then head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said Bush had inquired about reports of breaches. Bush did not participate in that briefing.
*********http://drudgereport.com/flash3.htm

[JM Hanes]

Clarice: What communications people?

Aron: Suddenly St. Brownie, eh? Love the Prez "had to have known" bit -- from a real neutral party.

AB: Can't wait till Campaign '08 when your crowd has to start defending Hillary. Have you got a new screen name in mind yet?

[SteveMG]

Had Washington been able to get about 100 trucks with troops to the Superdome and Convention Center on the day after the storm landed and, with the TV cameras rolling, removed the women and children from those areas, much of this controversy would have been alleviated.

It really didn't matter what happened elsewhere in the region and whether the response was tardy or insufficient, the pictures alone would have been viewed as a successful response by the Bush W.H.

All of this discussion about "topping" or "breaching" of levees or whether Blanco or Bush should have been more aggressive earlier in responding to the crisis would be conducted sotto voce (so to speak).

Katrina, for all intents and purposes, was Bush's Tet offensive. And like LBJ, he can't recover from it.

SMG

[JJ]

Great wrap-up TM!

[SteveMG]

Note that the AP has run a "clarification" re the "breaching" versus "topping" debate.

WASHINGTON (AP) _ In a March 1 story, The Associated Press reported that federal disaster officials warned President George W. Bush and his homeland security chief before Hurricane Katrina struck that the storm could breach levees in New Orleans, citing confidential video footage of an Aug. 28 briefing among U.S. officials.

The Army Corps of Engineers considers a breach a hole developing in a levee rather than an overrun. The story should have made clear that Bush was warned about floodwaters overrunning the levees, rather than the levees breaking.

The day before the storm hit, Bush was told there were grave concerns that the levees could be overrun. It wasn't until the next
morning, as the storm was hitting, that Michael Brown, then head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said Bush had inquired about reports of breaches. Bush did not participate in that briefing.

[EricH]

Let's see, we have a 250 year old city built below sea level next to two large bodies of water with a haphazard and jerry-rigged levee system almost 70 years old.

And Bush is to blame because two days before a hurricane hit, he didn't do enough to protect the city.

(sigh)

[SPQR]

SteveMG, I see you are blaming the President for not evacuating the Superdome. Cute job since Governor Blanco had not relinquished her authority in that matter at all. The President had no control of police or national guard troops in New Orleans.

The delay of the Louisiana authorities to take control of the Convention Center was the direct result of the irresponsible reports by New Orleans PD itself repeating false rumors about events at the Convention Center such that Louisian national guard waited until they had assembled a large force before moving to the Convention Center. We later learned that that stories were gross exaggerations or outright lies by New Orleans officials.

[topsecretk9]

I don't blame Blanco and her staff, but I do fault them. They immediately started politicking when the realized they blew it. Imagine if she had the balls to say, okay feds "take over, and get that help in there pronto"...She'd look like a like a leader, self-less and rational.

Instead she and her staff put options in limbo, so they could ponder the political ramifications (and consulted a Liz Clairborne expert too)

[ajacksonian]

Now, perhaps we can all get off of being 'stuck on stupid' and concentrate on a city that is *sinking*?

I do my best to figure out ways to save those things worth saving. One way is to have a rebuilt population center connected by high-speed rail to the city and port, and let the Mississippi do as it will by opening the cut-off. The second idea is a Freedom Ship concept fully implemented. Get the population on water. And neither is *perfect*. But neither is rebuilding a *sinking city*. Truly, my tax dollars should go towards a better solution than that.

Or perhaps we will love to answer in a few years the grand question 'What did you do to save New Orleans?' Everyone who is pointing a finger *now* is no longer helping the situation. Long-term answers are needed to save New Orleans, its people, its culture and its heritage.

Before we spend billions of dollars on the equivalent of patching the Titanic's plumbing as the ship itself sinks.

[SteveMG]

SPQR:
I think you miss the point of my post. Or, more likely, I mangled the wording.

My point is that the perception of the public - whether accurate or not - is that the Bush Administration failed to help the people of New Orleans quickly enough.

Yes, I know that the responsibility for the people in the Superdome and in the Convention Center was primarily, if not exclusively, that of the city and state officials. And they failed - as all evidence clearly shows - to take adequate preparations to handle those folks who failed to heed the call to leave the city.

But the majority of the public - in part because of the focus by the press - believes that the Federal Government bears primary repsonsibility for the inadequate response to Katrina.

That, as you point out, is incorrect. But at this point, the Bush Administration doesn't have the time or energy to correct that error. Their political capital is nearly empty and what little they have left must be spent on other concerns.

Plus, my guess is that alot of them are just plain tired or exhausted after 6 years. Physically and emotionally.

New blood is needed.

SMG

[Charlie (Colorado)]

AB: how long do you think it takes to rebuild a city?

Now multiply that by 2 to account for the famous New Orleans efficiency.

And multiply the cost by 1.5 to account for the money going to local politicians' in-laws.

And now you'll have an answer.

It's a helluva lot longer than six months.

[Rick Ballard]

Ajacksonian,

Is this a national or a local problem? I commend your analysis but what are the affirmative measures that might be taken by the Feds - except for writing checks? Most of LA is a swamp - and that definitely includes the state capitol and the hookers masquerading as politicians who inhabit it.

Venice continues to live and Holland has some proper knowledge about the implementation of long term solutions to water problems. For that matter, I live on a levee in California without even a modicum of fear - nor any risk of submersion.

Are the people of LA so incompetent that they cannot select a proper solution - even with the Feds (all of us) footing the bill? If so, perhaps a CAT 6 is in order - just to provide sufficient impetus.

[maryrose]

Blanco and Nagin are the most to blame in this fiasco for not forcing evacuation of the city. Because they are dems they get a pass and as usual everyone blames Bush. He at least is making sure they get the money to rebuild. What has Nagin done lately? I hope they vote him out in april. A disgraceful performance where he actually gave a tour group a bus out of there ahead of people at the Superdome and Convention Center. Landrieu needs to sit down and close her mouth if she hopes to get re-elected and continue using our tax dollars to rebuild her city that has squandered levee rebuilding money in the past. Only mistake President Bush made was not declaring marshall law and taking over the city out of the hands of these dem incompetents. 200 busses sitting in a couple of feet of water-a tragedy.

[clarice]

I think when Landrieux waltzed in with her ridiculous budget request, I lost all sympathy.

All along the coast what we remember as best in NO will reestablish itself..the food and music will live on elsewhere and in the French quarter and the Garden District which is after all what most people think of as NO.

As for the rest--the corruption and ignorance, the regular rip off of federal funds, the sheer incompetence of its thieving officials, and "plantation" mentality, good riddance.

[Rick Ballard]

SMG,

Aren't you in the MSM trap? The WH doesn't care what the MSM says - it is beyond the touch of the cretins filling the pages of the party organs. The WH is also serving notice on its own cretins in the legislature that if they want to save their sorry asses come November, perhaps a bit of discipline is in order.

Why should Bush care, in any way, what his poll numbers amount to? Is he running for something of which I am not aware? The Reps in the legislature are behaving like Dems when they were in ascendance - as proud and stupid a group as ever aseembled in Babylon on the Potomac. If they don't have the ears to listen to someone who knows what he is doing - why should Bush care? Can they add anything of measurable value to the current situation in any area?

If you say Yes! - please point to the area. Both Frist and Hastert behaved like buffoons of the first magnitude concerning the freight terminals - they reminded me of the clownish Tip O'Neill, so stupidly focused on next week that next year was but a dream.

[SteveMG]

Rick:
The WH doesn't care what the MSM says

Well, they better. And I think they do.

I don't think I'm in the MSM trap. I think a great deal of the larger public is. That's what I'm concerned about.

And because a majority of the public still relies on the MSM as their primary source of news, the W.H. cannot dismiss them and rely solely or predominantly on alternative media.

We can curse the MSM and complain about their mis-reporting or inaccurate coverage of the ports deal or Katrina coverage or a dozen other issues. That's a worthwhile (and infuriating) exercise.

However, the vast majority of the public doesn't follow these stories this closely. What percentage of the larger electorate will follow this "breach" versus "topping" discussion? Or the issue of ports versus terminals? My guess is that more than half the public believes that DP World will be running all of our ports. Ugh.

We can dismiss them as being lazy but not during this time in our history. As the saying goes, nations fight wars, not armies.

And if the public no longer believes (fairly or not) in the effectiveness and credibility of the President, his ability to conduct that war is lost. cf., LBJ.

The antique media has lost a great deal of its power and influence but it can still command how an issue is originally presented to the public. As we've seen with the ports issue and with this one.

And I didn't even mention the effect on Congressional races of a wounded presidency.

SMG

[Rick Ballard]

SMG,

I don't recall "nursemaid to legislative nitwits" as part of the job description that I based my vote for Bush upon. If the Republican legislative Clown Corps doesn't want to sign up for a rectocraniotomy - that's their problem. Politically W has already done more for the party than Reagan ever did.

You're absolutely right about a correlation existing between low Pres polling and party performance in mid-terms. If there were anything but egos on the leg side they might pull their act together and support the Pres instead of drifting off on their own fantastic adventures.

W is not a nursemaid. He doesn't give a fig for polls and he doesn't give a fig for the MSM or the Dem posturers - why the hell should he? If his party can't get their act together, what means does he have at his disposal to rein them in?

The Congressional Clowns need to hop back in their car and pay attention to the ringmaster - if they want to hold the majority. Although even that supposition is in jeopardy because the great incumbency charade makes it extremely likely that the current Clowns can hold sway without W's help. This cycle.

[SteveMG]

Rick:
I agree (largely) with your description of the Congressional Republicans.

But the larger public still needs to be consulted/considered, especially during times like these.

And they still rely on the MSM for their information on what their government is doing.

My point is that the MSM hasn't been completely surpassed by the new technologies. They still have great power, power that the W.H. can't ignore even if it is sometimes recklessly exercised.

That's all.

SMG

[MTT]

SMG,

Me too, then.

I think you're right.

They've won.

And Europe has capitulated and is doomed.

Israel most likely is doomed, too.

And a Democratic Congress sure will help things a lot.

Wait 'til the bird flu hits and millions die.

Nope, it's not going to be good.

Can't say Bush didn't try.

He did.

But failed.

It's OK to lose.

But unless a miracle happens, it's gonna sucks to be us.