Poll Results

Let's have a semi-open thread on the latest NY Times poll results (46 page .pdf).

A surprise to me:

On Iraq, two-thirds of poll respondents said they disapproved of how the president had handled the war. Fifty-six percent said going to war in the first place was a mistake, up from 50 percent in January. And 60 percent said things were going "somewhat or very badly" in the drive to stabilize the country. Sixty-three percent disapproved of Mr. Bush's handling of foreign policy in general.

Still, 55 percent said they believed the effort in Iraq was somewhat or very likely to succeed.

MORE:  Relative Value Watch:

The political situation has not helped some of the more prominent members of the Democratic Party. Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, who was Mr. Bush's opponent in 2004, had a lower approval rating than Mr. Bush: 26 percent, down from 40 percent in a poll conducted right after the election.

And just 28 percent said they had a favorable view of Al Gore, one of Mr. Bush's more vocal critics.

As with so many things, assessing Bush is a matter of perspective - he  has looked better against actual opponents.  I'm remembering the story of two hikers in the woods who are approached by a bear.  The first hiker drops his backpack, takes out his running shoes, and starts lacing them up.  His friend looks over and says, "You're wasting your time - you can't outrun a bear".  To which the first hiker replies, "You can explain that to the bear - I'm only trying to outrun you."

STILL PICKING:  Immigration and gas prices are showing up as concerns. 

That said, we love this calm, unloaded alternative for Question 3: What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? Among the possible responses are abortion, crime, poverty, the economy, jobs, and so on.  But how about "Heating oil/Gas Crisis"?  That extra reminder might be for those who can't quite decide if gas prices are a crisis or not. And that choice drew 14%, placing it third behind the war (with Iraq?  On terror?) with 19% and "Other" at 16%.  As a note, other choices included "Iraq/Osama bin Laden" with 4% and "terrorism general" with 3%.

BURIED (WITH JIMMY HOFFA) LEAD:  Support for drilling in ANWR exceeds opposition for the first time in the  data they present, which goes back to 2001.

76. Currently, drilling for oil and natural gas is prohibited in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposal to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska for oil and natural gas drilling?
....................................Approve.....Disapprove......DK/NA
2/10-12/01 CBS                 42             50                 8
3/8-12/01                         36             57                 6
4/23-25/01 CBS                 37             54                 9
11/20-24/02                     39              55                 6
5/4-8/06                         48             45                   7

 

GET ME REWRITE!  OR REBALANCE:  Near the end the poll reveals that John Kerry won the election:

These last few questions are for background only. Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election, did something prevent you from voting, or did you choose not to vote? IF VOTED, ASK: Did you vote for John Kerry, George W. Bush, or Ralph Nader?

5/4-8/06  Kerry-37; Bush- 35; Nader- 1; None of your business- 3

Comments

[PaulV]

Six months until November with a booming economy.

[clarice]

I think if I were polled I'm not sure how I'd answer--in part because it is hard to answer such questions in a yes or no fashion, but I do like this president and think he has been transformative in many ways. And I sure am not planning on voting for a Dem generic or otherwise.I feel that is the case with the conservatives whom these polls and the press say are abandoning the party.One or two moves--like a fence on the border and the tide shifts. As Cost shows (and Barone) this poll in any event is unlikely to shift the composition of Congress in 2006.

What I am saying is that these polls are useless.

[SPQR]

Confidence in the ultimate purpose coupled with a biased media is why there is such a disconnect. The polled population does not hear the good news from Iraq that is played down by the partisan media.

[Neo]

Frankly with Bush's numbers looking this low, I would be most likely to tell the pollsters that things were bad just to render them completely useless.

Bottom line, while Bush's numbers look bad, I would leave them out of any real calculation when factoring seats in Congress. I mean Congress gets 21-23% favorable, but their local rep is 53%. This means .. this stuff is local.

With 53% saying the economy is good, and the last time the Dow (and most other indicators) was this high it was 70%, I would wonder what these numbers really mean. Bush should probably do a campaign like swing of factories, offices that are going well (and expect AP to say someone booed).

[danking70]

A booming economy will not be much of a help when you have this going on in the MSM.

http://powerlineblog.com/archives/014018.php

From the Media Research Center, via the Washington Times, we learn that NBC, ABC, and CBS aired a total of 183 stories about the horrors of gas prices between April 12 and May 2. Only four stories in the same time period covered the current low unemployment rate of 4.7 percent. NBC led the charge, presenting 79 negative gas stories, which comes to almost four per day. ABC was next with 59. CBS had 45.

Booming economy? What booming economy? Did you hear about gasoline prices???

[Sue]

If a democrat was president, the booming economy, during a war, would be the lead story, day after day.

[Dwilkers]

Fascinating stuff, and timely too with the election year gearing up. Cool of them to publish the raw data in PDF like that.

These stuck out for me:

Approve / Disapprove of congress? 23/64 (disapprove)

Approve / Disappprove of your congressperson? 53/31 (approve)

Favorable / Unfavorable John Kerry? 26/38 (unfavorable) [fascinating]

Better for prescription drugs for elderly? Pubs 18 Dems 61 (wow)

And wow. The Iraq war numbers are horrible for Bush almost across the board but they do not translate to WoT - he's strong there. Weird....or maybe not.

Strong Defense? Pubs 55, Dems 29. Always the Dems Achilles' heel.

Another interesting thing is all the way down at the bottom it turns out the poll respondents were 37/35 Kerry supporters over Bush and 37/25 Dems over Pubs. /shrug

I'll say this though, Bush' fundamentals (honesty, etc) are solid even in that poll. Rove needs to get his fanny to work.

[K Ashford]

If a pollster asked me if I thought our efforts in Iraq were (likely, somewhat likely, unlikely) to succeed, I wouldn't be able to answer the question.

Will our efforts in Iraq result in the end of the Saddam dictatorship? Well, they already have.

Will our efforts in Iraq result in a stable democracy there? At some point in time, I expect Iraq to become a stable democracy, although I can't say how much will be as a result of "our efforts".

Will our efforts in Iraq mean the end of al Qaeda? No.

Will our efforts in Iraq mean a more secure America? I doubt it.

Will our efforts in Iraq bring peace to the Middle East? I doubt it.

See, it all depends on how one defines "success". Since there seems to be no universal understanding of what "success" means, I find such poll questions (and restuls) to be frustratingly unhelpful.

[Syl]

First, I blame the dismal Iraq coverage.

Second, call me a heretic, but I blame Karl Rove for the mess Bush is in right now. Karl should stick to politics, not policy.

I lay Harriet Miers in his lap.

Third, I blame hysteria for the Dubai Ports thing.

Fourth, I think much of the immigration issue is hysteria as well.

Fifth, I blame small government/fiscal conservatives for their current hissy fit and their loss of memory re the context of the last five years.

Sixth, I blame social conservatives for throwing their weight around and tut-tutting anything that has to do with sex. Sean But-She's-A-Prostitute Hannity is enough to send newly-minted Republican voters back where they came from.

Seventh, I blame the partisan nasty Democrats for being anti-Iraq and screaming 'Bush Lied' when they know damn well we had to do something about Saddam after 9/11.

Eighth, I blame the Whitehouse for their miserable performance in defending themselves and their positions.

Ninth, I blame the KosKidz types who have poisened our politics so profoundly and the Democrats who are rudderless and have allowed themselves to fall prey to the little stupid snipers. The atmosphere in American politics is sulfur yellow and has turned our citizens sour to everything.

Bush is giving the muslim world a chance to join the 21st century. By helping them turn against the extremists in their midst and giving them hope for a better future, Bush is helping America stay safe. It is not an easy task, nor is it guaranteed to be without peril while the process plays out.

The Iraqi people are struggling with their new freedom. It is not easy being free and as we watch the internal strife inherent in these societies we can see clearly the human spirit trying to find its way.

In contrast we have the pettiness at home here in America. It's enough to turn anyone off of politics.

[clarice]

But in your soul, Syl is it enough to (a) keep you from voting or (b) make you vote for the crowd which will bring back Berger and Beers and Clark and Albright?

[Syl]

clarice

Of course not.

:)

[danking70]

Clarice, Bush cultists/automatrons don't have souls,

[Jim Elbe]

"the crowd which will bring back Berger and Beers..."

Hey, here in Wisconsin if you throw in Brats with Bergers and Beers, you've got a landslide!

Elbe in Green Bay

[clarice]

I'm originally from Wisconsin so I can concur that brats and beers are a draw. (I'm having some from Nueske's tonight as a matter of fact.)

[Daddy]

I want a Flat Tax.
I want a Presidential Line Item Veto.
I want secure Borders.
I want a serious prosecution of terrorists who want to murder us and our civilization.
I will never see these desires realized by any particular candidate but I will pull the lever for whoever comes closest to my goals, regardless of party.

[clarice]

I don't see the likelihood of a flat tax any day soon.
Bush would like a line item veto and has pushed for one.
The House Republicans have been fighting for border security.

So?

[Syl]

Well, the Democrats say the Republicans represent a 'Culture of Corruption'.

I say the Democrats represent a 'Culture of Conniption'

I think that will stick. :)

I like it.

CULTURE of CONNIPTION

[maryrose]

Daddy:
I would add to that list some type of affordable healthcare so I can retire. I currently carry the family health insurance through my job.
Polls don't mean a thing-Cnn NYT AP polls are designed and skewed to make President Bush look bad. I disregard them.

[clarice]

Syl, that is so good, I may have to steal it..

maryrose, if people considered health insurance as they did other insurance and got coverage for major incidents and paid for routine things out of pocket, we could all be better off. I'm beginning to think that the best thing for the government to do is simply to encourage a very large pool simple major medical plan, I do not expect my home insurance to cover routine repair and maintenance costs nor my car insurance to cover gas fill ups and battery changes,

Add to that an expansion of the public health service to handle routine health matters in poor areas and help on purchasing medicine for those who need it, and medical malpractice reform and we will be better off than all the fancy dancy Rube Goldberg plans which will only diminish health care in America and create unworkable costs.

[Jane]

I want a secure border and the UN kicked out of this country. I want the tax cuts to be permanent.

I like this president. I'm very optimistic about Iraq.

Oh and I want the MSM to be handed its hat.

[clarice]

Me, too.

[Jake - but not the one]

You guys! LOL!

Get a grip. The polls look bad for Bush becuase things ARE bad for Bush.

Reality bites. What's that line from the left? The facts are prejudiced against Bush? or are they partisan? Whichever.

I'll say this, I think that 55% that believes someday Iraq will be a success are mostly whistling in the dark. I too wish for success, however it is defined, but I think a stable democracy is a long way off, and as for a new friend in the ME, forget about it. That won't happen.

Jake

[ghostcat]

Six months out, Bush is right where he wants to be. All the leading indicators, on all the crucial issues, are with him. Given the alternatives, and barring some major catastrophe, the Pubs will do just fine in November. Fitz or no.

[paul]

"Congressional Republicans get an eviscerating review in this poll. The GOP gets a favorability rating of 37%, exactly 20 percentage points lower than where it was in 1994. Inversely, Democrats in Congress had a favorability rating increase of 11 percentage points over what it was in 1994."

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/05/09/opinion/polls/main1604495.shtml

So CBS accidentally laid down the bechmark for a Democratic 94 level performance-you need 57%.

The general average approval of congressional Dems is about 30-35, strikingly similar to Bush's numbers. How the dems are going to pick up 15 pts, without lifting Bush is a conundrum.

More telling was the breakdown of the bar graph:

http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2006/05/10/washington/20060510_POLL_GRAPHIC.html

The GOP does well on concrete matters, which are more easily understood.

The majority of things the dems do well on questions which have no simple answers.
The respondents still trusted Bush over the dems on to make military strong and to fight terrorism. Kinda strange that an immigration question wasn't asked (or reported.)

Another hidden bomb in this was

Question #76.

48-45 in FAVOR of drilling in ANWR.
This a a breakthru number, because the emphasis that the dems have given gas, has now made it a popular issue.

In 02, it was opposed 55-39.

In hammering home gasoline dependency, the dems are undercutting their once held high ground.

[Sue]

I wonder why things are bad for Bush? The economy is zipping and someone once said it is the economy stupid...

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/05/10/D8HH2VM08.html>April tax revenue 2nd highest in history

But people think the economy sucks.

[Carol Herman]

Okey dokey. How many respondents knew the war in Iraq lasted only 3 weeks?

How many know that America has a volunteer army now. And, the losses in the field are BUPKIS for army manuevers. 4%. It's still easier for teenagers to die in America behind the wheels of their cars.

ANd, we've secured the Kurdish area, BECAUSE THEY WANT AMERICANS TO HELP THEM. The Kurds aren't arabs. And, the arabs are beset with problems. Not unique to Iraq. Where there's both opportunities ahead, and the chance to run the show with their own elected officials.

Terror by the way is a LOCAL problem. It is not a WAR. And,my sympathies lie elsewhere. As I said, the Kurds LOVE us. We'll have bases on the ground in a place where it had been verboten. Because the Kurds will offer us what we need to keep our troops safe and happy. And, their infrastructure GROWING. It should be noticed that the Kurds forbid to let any arabs into their territory.

As to Islam, and it's teachings, it's possible that the rabid approach gets to disappoint the practitioners up ahead? You don't think so? Then you know very little history. Especially when the Catholic Church ruled Europe. Only to lose their footing. Because the non-believers, there, outnumber the faithful. And, if it can happen to the Pope's brigade, it can happen to anybody.

History proves more than once that tyrants rarely get more than 30 years, before things fall apart. Does lawlessness happen? Yup. To people who haven't learned how to defend themselves.

Now, if the Holocaust taught nothing else; it taught Jews the need to survive by becoming strong. And, they have their State of Israel to prove it.

While all the diplomats have are their calls to Jews to pack and go. It's not like there are trains running on time to Auschwitz anymore.

Some people learn. Others don't. Europeans, for a group, happen to be very slow learners. That's why they've got worse muzzie problems than us.

As to these polls you might as well just stuff it where the sun don't shine. Data Mining, it isn't.

Why do the MSM stick to this data, I have no idea. It's not as if their circulation is up, ya know? Seems to me the Internet's grown up on their problems.

SO we still see the problems.

Hence, the Internet grows.

[paul]

I cited above a CBS statement:

"The GOP gets a favorability rating of 37%, exactly 20 percentage points lower than where it was in 1994."

But according to their OWN poll in question #14, the gop was at 41% in October 04. They owe me a correction.

[Syl]

Clarice

Syl, that is so good, I may have to steal it..

Please do. Get the word out.

CULTURE of CONNIPTION

[Davebo]

Paul,

I'm all for opening up ANWR for exploration, but not using any of the past bills submitted to congress which included royalty forgiveness and tax breaks for companies exploring. If at $70.00 a barrel a company can't produce in ANWR and make a profit it's obviously not time to do so.

But as far as foreign dependance on oil, we'll always have it. Even if we got 100% of our oil from domestic sources, which is never gonna happen.

Unless of course you think we'd pull a Bolivia and nationalize all US oil companies.

[paul]

#16?

36% feel if Bush helps a local they'll go against him. News flash on this, is that the 36% were going to vote aginst ANY gop candidate. This is kinda redundant question to #15-
Is the 06 election a referendum on Bush-both draw 36%.

I'm getting the idea that the dems are unified in their opposition to Bush, but can't draw any independents. 94 was characterized by a strong independent(relatively speaking) turnout, in favor of the GOP.

[paul]

Oil world is a changing.

As the price of oil rises, the tech for extracting it from oil sands in Canada, and oil shale in the far West is coming down. Opec would be broken, if this were to happen.(right now it would be an environmental mess, but the more dependent we become on foreign oil and refineries, the more likely the scenario.

If we start on the Continental shelf we also would have substantial leverage against OPEC. We don't even have to do it on a massive scale, just express the willingness.

Crude prices are higher by about 25-30 dollars higher, based on the speculation. Crude is being sold as it comes out of the ground, the present belief is that we will not increase domestic supply. Large brokerage houses are heavy in buying the rights of the natural gas and oil, driving the prices. It is interesting that despite this the DOW is running high. But the previous high was 6 years ago, meaning that most of the cash that has been created over the past 6 years is sitting in commodites.

I have the sense that Bush is laying low, but will build an agenda around increasing our domestic supply in the summer, gving some weight to the rep's reps. His last two years may be some his boldest.

[clarice]

As it becomes evident that high gas and oil prices are no longer short term blips (and high here is a laugh compared to Europe), you can see real investment in oil share and other extraction methods, development of new resources, including nuclear, that the market forces and the Dems links with the enviro-wackos have curtailed. And Arabia can pound sand.

[paul]

To add to the Kerry victory of 37-35, Republicans should take heart.

In #23 Kerry only has a favorable of 26%.

[Wilson's a liar]

These polls still don't tell me which Republican incumbents are going to lose in this great Democrat tsunami. I'll give you a few who *should* have tough races in competitive districts this year but won't.

Mike Fitzpatrick - PA 8th
Anne Northup - KY 3rd
Geoff Davis - KY 4th

Fitzpatrick is a classic case. Suburban district, trending Democrat, went for Gore and Kerry, Fitzpatrick is pro-life and might be considered too conservative for the district, and he's a freshman. And who are the Democrats running against him? A 32-year-old Iraq veteran (one whole year as a JAG lawyer, woohoo) who doesn't even live in the district and hasn't voted in 6 of the last 10 elections.

Democrats are so desperate they got the aged Ken Lucas out of retirement to run against Geoff Davis after Davis trounced their golden boy Nick Clooney in 2004. Lucas has zero chance of winning in the district he represented for 3 terms.

How about the Senate? Rick Santorum is going to win. Lincoln Chafee is going to win. Mike DeWine is going to win. Mark Kennedy is going to win the open Senate race in Minnesota. And I think Michael Steele is going to win in Maryland. The Republicans have a better chance of picking up Senate seats in Nebraska and Maryland and Minnesota than the Dems have of picking up any seats.

[BlalBlaBla]

April 2006 Tax revenue came in the 2nd highest ever. If can just get some spending restraint to go with these tax cuts and booming economy.

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/05/10/D8HH2VM08.html

[K Ashford]

Re: GET ME A REWRITE! OR REBALANCE!

Did you vote for John Kerry, George W. Bush, or Ralph Nader?

5/4-8/06 Kerry-37; Bush- 35; Nader- 1; None of your business- 3

I suspect that 2-3% of those polled lied about this question, i.e., they voted for Bush or didn't vote at all, but now they wish (or want others to think) that they voted for Kerry.

Happens all the time when a President becomes unpopular.

[paul]

"As it becomes evident that high gas and oil prices are no longer short term blips..."

I disagree with your premise. Commodities are driven by fears. The fear of lack of oil accounts for the marked rise.

But as fear drives commodities, if the speculators believe that their 70 dollar oil will be available for 68 dollars in two years, the fear of finacial loss will cause them to dump, big time.

The democratic hype has been a boon to commodities, along with their stolid opposition to increasing domestic supply. All the gop has to do is bust the dems control on production, and the market will significantly respond.

(I love your work(kinda legal version of Claudia Rossette), sorry that we disagree.)

[clarice]

Well, thanks for the generous compliment.
Undoubtedly, traders and speculators are driving up the prices. (My hunch is that the Saudis are, too, with reports of puny "AQ attacks" on isolated oilfields whenever prices dip.) But the truth is present capacity is limited (and will be limited more as the Castro-Chavez-Morales loonies destroy the Venezuelan and Bolivia industries). And world demand is up.And the one thing I do remember from economics is supply and demand curves.

[K Ashford]

Paul writes:

"To add to the Kerry victory of 37-35, Republicans should take heart.

In #23 Kerry only has a favorable of 26%."

Take heart? I'm not sure why that should be encouraging.

First of all, Kerry isn't the Dem nominee for 2008.

Secondly, that number has relevance only in comparison to the Pub nominee in 2008. And that would be.... um....?

It looks like the masses are down on ALL politicians regardless of party. I'm not sure how that bodes well for Republicans, who are in charge right now. If anything, it will keep turnout low -- except for those most motivated to see change.

[Seixon]

Toss the "none of your business" folks into the Bush column. All better.

[Seixon]

Favorability:

Bush - 29%
Gore - 28%
Kerry - 26%

Ouch. As I commented on Think Progress yesterday, Americans aren't just fed up with Bush, they are fed up with politicians. Period.

[clarice]

Hillary's favorability ratings keep sinking, too.

And the reality based community hates her.

Let's don sock puppets and start agitatin' for a third party.:wink:

[Jeff]

Six months out, Bush is right where he wants to be.

I would not have thought there was a single person in the entire country who believed that.

[paul]

Increase supply, or at the least make the speculators think you will increase supply, and price will come down.

Even by improving gas economy 3% every year, we go against in increase of use by about 5%. Until we produce domestically, we are owned by foreign govts.

Consider the effect that it bears on the trade deficit-
18 million barrels of foreign oil used a day (times) 30 dollar markup (times)365 days=

219 billion(this is just the overvalue that we lose due to the recent increase in prices)

The total is 18 mil*70*365:

460 billion to our trade deficit, yearly.

If polled by the NYT I would not approve of Bush or Congress. I can guarantee that the alternative to them scares me into voting, (4 times in one Fl town in 2000;)

[AMDG]

The main problem is that the White House has refused to defend itself. They do not seem to understand that the MSM and Democrats do not feel constricted by the truth when engaging in spin

They have let the panderers take control of the energy crisis so instead of talk about production we get oil company bashing. Soon enough China and India will be developing oil production within sight of Key West and we will still be running wasteful investigations.

The White House needs to take the game to the enemy. When Senator Turbin states that the NSI intercepts were unconstitutional during the Kavanaugh hearings he should be figuritively beaten into the ground.

When Schumer, San Fran Nan and Senator Box-o-rocks blames the price of gas on the White House they should be, in no uncertain terms, called on it in such a way that states that people so ignorant are not intellectually capable of having any real power.

This past week the day that SS goes belly up was accelerated. Where is the spokesman saying that anybody under the age of 40 who votes Democrat is sentencing themselves to a steady diet of Alpo when they retire because the Democrats do not want them to be secure in retirement . . . . .

Has there been any White House comment on the AQ documents that indicate we are winning?

If they are looking for the MSM to do it they deserve what they get.

[clarice]

Yes, Paul increase supplu or make them think you will.
There is no reason to be using oil and gas to generate electricity--build nuclear reactors fast..and streamline the reguulatory process or no investor will bother. Increase refinery capacity--we haven't built a new refinery for 30 years..Drill off shore(others will be drilling there, too). And if it takes setting up windmill farms outside every house John Kerry lives in, do it, so he can look at his alternative energy sources every minute of the day.

[clarice]

AMDG, the WH communications office has been the biggest bust of all. Given the bias of the msm and the fact that that is the President's biggest weakness that has been a tragedy. I hope Snow and Bolten can turn that around, and I want to see Matalin put to work at it again--she is outstanding.

[AMDG]

Clarice,

People look at immigration as Bush's biggest problem with his base. I disagree since is position has been consistant.

The most dispiriting (in)action regarding the relationship between the President and his supporters is the failure to fight back.

They seem to believe that the truth will win out - it seems they forgot about the prior POTUS.

[Soylent Red]

Some have alluded to it, but I will come right out and say it: People love to bitch, will ignore facts to retain that right, and will seek out media and human networks that will reinforce their rationales.

I read a piece on Fox News recently that economists couldn't figure out why so much pessimism remained concerning our booming economy. Inconvenient things like facts aside, being unhappy with government is a terrific way to justify being unhappy with your life, and absolves you from any responsibility to change your unhappiness.

Think about it this way: If I go to get 20 gallons of gas, and it has gone up 20 cents per gallon since last time, that's a grand total of $4. Now $4 dollars isn't going to break anyone. I buy one less beer at the bar, or one less pack of smokes or eat hamburger instead of steak one night per week and I've got it covered.

Gas going up can't be controlled by the President (or Congress). Even if he were dictator and could institute policies tomorrow, he still can't control commodity speculation, or the time it take to explore and develop oil fields or build refineries.

But that doesn't matter to John Q. Sixpack. Politicians must somehow be to blame, because, well...by God they aren't doing anything!

Or take Iraq. When the enemy themselves are admitting to losing, every soldier and Marine coming back says we're making progress, and the Iraqi people themselves are overwhelmingly optimistic, you'd think ol' John Q. would be pretty upbeat and proud. We've sustained fewer casualties in 3 years than we sustained in several individual days in WWII and Vietnam. Pretty darned good to an informed and impartial observer.

But alas, when every article out of Iraq starts with the daily casualty rundown, war protestors get serious media treatment, and the President won't come on TV every night and speak to us in soothing tones, John Q. is left to his own devices to ascertain what's going on. He naturally sees people out in the streets yapping made up facts, daily violence taken out of context displayed on his flat panel, and a President who won't emote and tell him everything is OK and concludes that it must be a failure in the making.

Then some pollster calls him up and asks him how he feels about things without explaining the facts of various issues to him. Based on his individual pain and his group pessimism, all unfounded, he reverts to form and bitches. Big fat shocker.

Clinton was popular in polls because he focused on short term pain reduction, rather than long term solutions. He was the Excedrin President. That went over well with the populace who really isn't concerned with the facts, just so long as his financial and mental comfort aren't shocked too much.

GWB, conversely, is doing poorly in polls specifically because he takes the opposite view of Clinton, i.e. short term political heat is preferrable to doing nothing lasting and being popular. He's more like the exploratory surgery President.

Bush needs to wage a campaign of educating the public, point by point, on why they should stop bitching and start living. Unfortunately, he's about four years late in getting started.

[Carol Herman]

One of the best post's here points out that IF Rove is indicted, he won't resign. (Since if he had done anything illegal, he'd have left the White House long ago.)

The other is a comment I read somewhere that in Bush's White House E-MAIL ISN"T USED FOR MUCH, BUT TO CONFIRM LUNCH DATES. Why? Because e-mail keeps sticking up there, while notes you write DON'T.

So, if there's a rule that most e-maling in the White House is innocutuous, all Fitz-Magoo has is dirty hands. And, a chance to get his reputation made worse.

Long gone are the days when ordinary citizens lined up to make fun of Ken Starr for being so over-zealous of Bubba's "bent" sexual escapades. This is different.

THe CIA is in tatters. The books ahead on the CIA will be SCATHING. The people who got money from the publishers to go in the other direction JUST LOST MONEY FOR THE PUBLISHING HOUSES. Richard Clarke's book failed. Ditto for Mary Mapes. So if you think the public's the sucker, they aren't.

And, this case will have the prosecutor looking even stupider than Perry Mason made his prosecutor to look CONSTANTLY. The only difference is that WELLS is BLACK. So when he does "Perry Mason's" schtick, people will pay attention.

Add to this that WELLS is a "local," and FItz-magoo is an outsider. And, of all the news that has no influence in Black communities, I'd say they rarely tune in P-BS, or take delivery of the NT Times.

Where's the advantages when Fit-the Ditz proceeds? His ship can't sink? What's it called? The Titanic? Don't book me any deck chairs, please.

[Dwilkers]

The main problem is that the White House has refused to defend itself. They do not seem to understand that the MSM and Democrats do not feel constricted by the truth when engaging in spin

More like they just don't have the stomach for it IMO.

This WH doesn't seem willing or able to sustain the kind of continuous PR campaign necessary to keep their numbers up all the time - or to put it differently to maintain their public support. This inability or unwillingness to do the hard work of explaining or selling what they're doing over and over as much as necessary is this administration's biggest failure I think.

[clarice]

But they manage to do so in the closing days of each campaign, when it really counts, don't they?

[ghostcat]

Remember: it's all about expectations.

[Dwilkers]

Indeed they do Clarice. And it always seems late to me. I well remember 2002 having the same feel this does.

Then the summer rolls around and the campaign really starts, both parties start to really pump out their messages and people have to actually consider their choices. That's when the polls start to mean a good bit more.

Like I said earlier there are good numbers for Bush in that polling - important fundamentals they can build on. We'll see it start in June I'd guess.

[SteveMG]

By better than two to one, Democrats were seen as having more new ideas than Republicans.

To me, that's the best/worst sign in the poll (since the rest of the numbers are essentially more of the past). Best for Dems, worst for Republicans.

Although I would have loved to seen a followup question asking the respondents what those ideas are.

SMG

[ghostcat]

We Americans are always bitchin' about the "same old, same old". But when we begin to seriously contemplate the alternatives, most of us get cold feet.

[clarice]

Dwikers, I did a little blog quoting your elegant analysis of Atrios. If it gets online I'll post it. It was so fantastic, I couldn't let it pass.

[clarice]

I'm not overly fond of Malkin and O'Reilly but I always pay attention to what they emphasize because they do seem to capture the mood of the "folks" and both signalled long ago that they wanted tougher border security. They are a far better election mood barometer than the NYT is.

[AMDG]

Great post on Powerline today.

The President should come out and say that, while he supports a comprehensive approach to illegal immagration, that he does not seeing it happen so he will work for border security and then a guest worker program.

[Terrye]

Syl:

I loved your comment.

Plus I would add that the right has turned on Bush for its own reasons. I rarely ever go to Instapundit anymore, got too annoying...but I checked in today and he made some comment about the Brookings Institute having good news about Iraq and he wondered why it was not getting more play. I thought, well if you guys would lay off the immigration and porkbuster rant for awhile it might get some play.

We know the media will do what it can to make Iraq look like a disaster, but it seems to me that even the supporters have forgotten there is a war on lately. In fact some of them are apparently ready to abandon the effort because Bush does not support mass deportation.

People just get tired of hearing about war after about three years, that is the max before serious grumbling sets in. Happens every time. Why do you think Stalin got such a good deal at Yalta?

[Terrye]

AMDG:

I don't think that will help him with the idelogues on the issue. They are rabid about amnesty, they want mass deportation etc. Just saying he will secure the border will not be enough to appease them. It might help with the people who are still sane about the issue however.

[jerry]

If you can get them below 30% you can take them all the way!

[Kate]

Bush made 2 critical mistakes. He stuck with the White House media strategy too long. Should have abandoned it earlier.

2) Annoyed his base when he was already low in the polls, no need for that.

That said, I remember the Nixon and Carter lows and this feels different. Somthing I can't put my finger on.

I think the media's strategy was to drive down Bush's approval rating by making Americans feel crappy about everything. In this regard, they've succeeded, but in the process, they've lowered everyone's, including their own. Notice we never get a media poll, and they love to talk about themselves, I just think their numbers are too low to spin.

How does Bush recover, just keep letting the media be its gleeful self and the Dems keep overplaying their hand. That's the best chance. Pick a fight with the Dems, that might rally the base.

[Campesino]

Dwikers, I did a little blog quoting your elegant analysis of Atrios. If it gets online I'll post it. It was so fantastic, I couldn't let it pass.

Posted by: clarice | May 10, 2006 at 02:29 PM

It was very good!!! I enjoyed it last night.

ABP has a good takedown of the skewed demographics of this poll

http://www.anklebitingpundits.com/index.php?name=News&file=article&sid=3562

NYT sampled 37%-D and 25%-R. In the 2004 election the partisan split was an even 37%. A 12 point skew out of reality

[Syncmaster]

It's the DoDIIS conference:

Porter Goss jokes and limos.

[Kate]

Everytime a poll comes out, conservatives (myself included) argue the internals. I think the samples are manipulated to a certain extent, but we need to acknowledge that Bush's numbers are low, the media will not let up until election day, and the Republican majority in Congress is in danger. We need to focus on where we go from here.

I think Bush could have neutralized the poll game months ago by hinting that conservatives and Republicans no longer cooperate or answer the polls truthfully. This would have forced the media to defend its polls a little more. Now it's too late.

[clarice]

Hume reports Snow's in place and the WH cranked out three emails today, attcking CBS, NYT and USA today on bad reporting on the perscription program.

[PeterUK]

It is worth aking if this is the NYT checking to see if its propaganda campaign is working with its readership

[Kate]

Yes, I swear these polls are the media's performance metrics. Do you see how excited CNN gets when a poll comes out on a President who is not going to run again...the whole thing is very strange.

[SteveMG]

Boy, looking at the guts of this latest survey, the public hates everybody.

And I'm not feeling too good about myself.

Guess it's catching.

Herd flu virus (yeah, TM, you can borrow this stinkeroo for sure).

SMG

[obsessed]

TM: You seem quite pleased to conclude that the poll is invalid because it shows that Kerry also won the election among those polled. He also won in the exit polls.

Speaking of polls, have you ever noticed how ridiculously skewed to the left all the "question of the day" informal online polls are? Seems that a lot more computer geeks lean to the left. What if the left wins the technological race and winds up doing a better job of hacking the electronic voting system?

It seems to me the net neutrality and accuracy in vote counting are two issues that should be just as important to the JOM crowd as to those at FDL.

[Dwilkers]

Boy, looking at the guts of this latest survey, the public hates everybody.

Exactly.

The left keeps crowing about Bush' numbers and they do suck but there's not much there for anyone to be happy about.

[Syl]

Terrye

I agree. I sent him a note today. I was angry so it was not wise especially since the cat was bugging me about something so I didn't concentrate. I don't as easily get to the nugget of things as you do. You should write. Every day. :)

Waaaaaay OT but there is more stupendous news out of Iraq!!

200 tribal leaders and Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish clerics met in a mosque in northern Baghdad. Prayed together! and signed a joint statement denouncing terrorism and sectarian violence!

This is big!

[Syl]

obsessed

TM: You seem quite pleased to conclude that the poll is invalid because it shows that Kerry also won the election among those polled. He also won in the exit polls..

Um. And the exit polls were invalid.

It seems to me the net neutrality and accuracy in vote counting are two issues that should be just as important to the JOM crowd as to those at FDL.

Look at it this way. One side checks for the validity of the actual votes. The other side checks for the validity of the voters.

It all gets covered.

[PeterUK]

Well, just a view from accross the pond,but I have never seen a spectacle like it,more like a punch up at wake than the political elite of the most powerful nation on earth conducting business.
Family friends turn up out of respect and see the family kicking the shit out of each other,no wonder Ahmadandbad thinks he has got you licked. I just hope it is some kind of ploy.

[Terrye]

Syl:

People forget that we can leave Iraq, but it is not so easy for the Iraqis. They may not want to live in poverty and fear just to make the lefties and media look good.

I am glad you wrote him. I swore I would never darken his door again, so it makes it a tad awkward...if you know what I mean.

[Terrye]

Peter:

We got that crazy bastard right where we want him.

Besides, it seems that there is some pretty lively stuff going on over on your side of the pond as well.

[Syl]

Terrye

I swore I would never darken his door again, so it makes it a tad awkward...if you know what I mean.

LOL! So you wrote one of THOSE kinds of notes? I see.

Love it!

[Syl]

Peter

Well, we all know Democracy is noisy and messy. It confuses the heck out of those who haven't a clue what it's all about.

But I admit America-style politics is a bit more rowdy than one finds in Europe.

Perhaps the main reason America is so powerful---we are the most confusing to the enemy.

[PeterUK]

Terrye,
Not really,just the socialists acting up again,the odd overwieght minister exercising droit de seigneur,the Chancellor of the exchequer trying to work Princess Tony out of a job.A few foreign criminals at large due to ministerial incompetence,the ills of socialised medicine coming home to roost again,SNAFU,whats new?
The opposition parties are all fairly tame,none of them have used the Iraq war as a political gambit in such a ruthless and unprincipled manner as the Democrats.

[maryrose]

PeterUK
My husband and son love watching your parliament in action. We love all the discussion and shouting and people jumping up to give their opinion in those cool British accents.

[windansea]

heh..the dem strategery backfires again

gotta love it!

[PeterUK]

Maryrose,
The system would certainly shut some of your more deranged senators up.

[clarice]

Re: The Culture of Conniption
Abramoff made 2 short visits to the WH

[windansea]

here is the corruption bar set by Democrats

Our Clinton Scandal Index

RECORDS SET

- The only president ever impeached on grounds of personal malfeasance
- Most number of convictions and guilty pleas by friends and associates*
- Most number of cabinet officials to come under criminal investigation
- Most number of witnesses to flee country or refuse to testify
- Most number of witnesses to die suddenly
- First president sued for sexual harassment.
- First president accused of rape.
- First first lady to come under criminal investigation
- Largest criminal plea agreement in an illegal campaign contribution case
- First president to establish a legal defense fund.
- First president to be held in contempt of court
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions
- Greatest amount of illegal campaign contributions from abroad
- First president disbarred from the US Supreme Court and a state court

[windansea]

pelosi's got a long rode to hoe

[Sue]

wind,

It is a long 'row' to hoe, as in cotton. ::grin::

[PeterUK]

Presumably Clintaon holds the record for the most records held?

[windansea]

oops better indict me :)

[windansea]

I too wish for success

sort of how the medias wishes for it too huh jake?

[Neo]

For the last few years, there has been the complaint the FoxNEWS led it's viewer to believe that there are a link between 9/11 and Iraq, even though the Bush Administration has never made a statement to that effect, except this stretch.

So what exactly has changed in Iraq to render the results of question #57.
I've seen a lot of stories on why gas prices are up, but this is a new one, especially to garner a "great deal" of 34%. I give odds that there are not stories that dispute this result.

57. How much of the blame for the increase in gas prices do you put on the war in Iraq --
a great deal, some, not much, or none at all?
Great deal Some Not much None at all DK/NA
5/4-8/06 34 35 17 13 1

[clarice]

Frankly, I think the war is just an excuse for everything they hate about Bush--basically that he's the President. Four years ago it was the 2001 election.

There is no sense to their criticisms and claims that Bush Lied are as nonsensical and intrue as everything Ambassador Munchausen says.

[clarice]

OT: How deep are the party's tentacles into every organization? Very. Kavanaugh got through even though Marna Tucker, a HC Clinton ally, downgraded him for the ABA. HC had had a hold on him solely because he served under Starr. Today they go further:
"It's official: the American Bar Association is off the reservation. After several years of relatively good behavior, it has now drawn its knives and enlisted in the Democrats' 2006 campaign. Today, the ABA's judicial qualifications panel opined unanimously that Michael Wallace, nominated to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals, is "unqualified" for the post.

This is ridiculous. Wallace's bio is here. He graduated from Harvard and (at the top of his class) the University of Virginia Law School. He clerked for the Mississippi Supreme Court, and for Justice Rehnquist on the U.S. Supreme Court. President Reagan appointed Wallace to head the Legal Services Corporation. For some years, Wallace has had what appears to be a top-notch litigation practice, with an appellate focus, in Jackson, Mississippi.

Based on Wallace's resume, there are two reasons why the Democrats at the ABA consider him "unqualified." The first is that he is a Republican. He is General Counsel of the Mississippi Republican Party, and--no doubt a key fact--he served as Special Impeachment Counsel to then-Majority Leader Trent Lott for the impeachment trial of President Clinton. The second reason is that Wallace is from Mississippi. I doubt whether the ABA would dare to pull the same stunt with a Northerner.

With this nakedly political move, the American Bar Association has once again forfeited any claim to credibility."http://powerlineblog.com/archives/014045.php

[Semanticleo]

Enough with the droll trolls scatalogizing
polls:

Anyone recall the Dreyfus Affair?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12727867/from/RSS/

[clarice]

Semanticleo--so many leaks about the NSA program were from judges--openly and I filed a request for an investigation with the Chief Judge of the SC about that--and lawyers in the DoJ, I wouldn't give the OPR a clearance to investigate the matter either. It's the first smart move since firing McCarthy in this leak crap I've seen the Administration make.

[PeterUK]

Cement,
"Droll troll" you have found your vocation..yuo need your own blog..call it "Jester Minute"

[Semanticleo]

clarice;

I admire your consistency, but.............
maybe, just maybe, McCarthy is the modern
day Dreyfus........"J' Accuse!"

[kim]

There are many and fascinating parallels.
=======================

[maryrose]

Semanticleo;
Every time I see your name I think of the word-semantics. MOM got what she justly deserved. In her last act-she should spill the beans about her cohorts,and ask for forgiveness. Though being a dem may make that a bridge too far for her and when they held her accountable-something dems just hate-you know actual responsibilty and accountability- she lawyered up.

[PeterUK]

Dreyfus was the subject of antisemitism,McCarthy leak because she was trying to create an advantage for her party the Democrats