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July 07, 2006



Are all these guys part of the Democrat Party? I know Gelb is. They all seem incapable of seeing anything other than gloom and doom.

Rick Ballard

I doubt that they are all Dems. They are, however, professional handwringers, and they are singing for their supper. A death rate of 1K per month isn't really much of a civil war. The round table members might want to take a glance at the casualty figures for the Iran/Iraq conflict in order to better form an opinion as to what might be acceptable to the Iraqi people as their elected officials sort this out.

Eventually there will be a Middle Eastern solution to this and the sooner the US allows it to happen, the sooner that the Iraqis will have security.


Jeez, "Seeing Baghdad, Thinking Saigon" ? How perfectly banal and boring.

How about, "Seeking Peace with Honor, Thinking Abject Surrender"


Careful that Table's about to tip over...

"Seeking Peace with Honor, Thinking Abject Surrender"

Much better, Tollhouse

Buck Smith

There is an interesting commentary on this same discussion at Belmont Club - "Vietnam as Mental Quagmire" ;)


People in the Mid-East have been killing each other over religion and enthnicity for thousands of years. The idea that the sectarian conflicts in Iraq or the Mid-East region are the result of American mistakes, let alone Bush's mistakes, is just comically stupid.

Carol Herman

Saigon had better whorehouses. Besides, there will NEVER be a musical about Iraq. Though a comedy show, starring Baghdad Bob might not be bad? I think he'd be an improvement on Malarky. Oh, to think the opportunities we had in the beginning.

Meanwhile, hidden away in the successful IDF operations now on-going in ga/za is something some notice as quick "in and out." It's absolutely exhausting the terrorists. And, frightening the civilian population. (To say nothing about their chickens refusing to lay eggs). And, all that noise from the overhead low, low flights.

In other words, we could actually be winning, but it won't show up in the press. And, what's at stake, really, is wiping out the press' ability to affect outcomes.

It looks like we're pretty close to target. Maybe, the test comes in November? When the single possible victory for the donks, for instance, would be joe lieberman elected as an independent?

For anything successful to be declared, ahead, it might be good to notice that not only aren't we in Vietnam, anymore; our President is not being drummed out of office by journalists. Do you know what this means? No Bob Woodward millionaires ahead. No lottery ticket that's gonna get cashed in. Even if Bill Keller's job goes up for grabs? Or the donks form circles and keep shooting each other?

While Iraq festers in the heat of the summer sun. And, in Vietnam, the Vietnamese, today, have no one to blame but themselves. Heck, they came "this close" to having the benefits the Japanese got after WW2. I'd bet every time the Vietnamese hear the word "journalist," they cringe.


HEH!!Maybe the Vietnamese should make a tardy tactical surrender.

Seven Machos

When I saw the headline "Seeing Baghdad, Thinking Saigon," I thought for sure it was going to be about the way Western elites have come to falsely view this war as the last war. Turns out it isn't about that. It IS that.


Methinks Maguire doth probe his ranks for signs of denialism's decline.

Perhaps in a few decades the osmosis which
causes even stone to sweat shall penetrate
the more rock-headed among us.

Until then, the wisdom displayed by the Father
in heeding the words of those who understand
the complexity of culture, will continue to
fall upon the deaf ears of the Son, and perhaps thousands more young americans will
die for little more than the principle, "into the valley of death rode the six hundred."


I believe the left, and the MSM would love to see helicopters lifting off from the Baghdad embassy.

*This* war is not being run by the politicians and the press, as Viet Name was. Fortunately, we have leaders who dare to lead. We have to make sure it stays that way.

Les Nessman

"A death rate of 1K per month isn't really much of a civil war."

True. What is America's murder rate per month?
Does America's murder rate 'prove' that we are in a 'civil war' quagmire?
How many of those Iraqi 1K/month deaths are just plain old crime deaths?


Show some respect; As they round the potential Holland Tunnel perpetrators you are safe in your bed thanks to the fact that President Bush has got your back. Can't say the same for your party's sorry roster of losers who don't know a winner{Lieberman} until it comes up and bites them on the a#@


4/12/1861 to 4/9/1865 - Total deaths (minimum) 618,000 including those dead due to disease running through prison camps and the military. Rate of being wounded varied between 11% and 15% per 1,000. Total service base: 3.2 million to 4.0 million soldiers over that period. (1458 days)

Daily toll on average: 420 dead, 210 wounded approximate low end calculations.

Total population: 31 million.

Iraq - Casualties Police/Military: 4,887
Civilian: 10,540
Figures compiled from news sources.

Daily toll, on average, Pol/Mil: 4.1
Civilian: 8.7
(1206 days)

Total Population: 28.9 Million

US Civil War most likely had a higher per capita weapon's ownership rate, but Iraq has an unknown number of automatic weapons and RPG's distributed by Saddam and many brought into the country covertly. This would also balance out the lack of sanitation in the US and, most especially, its prisons in 1861-65 as the majority of dead were from disease, not battlefield fatalities which only comes out 204,000 on the low side, getting you 140 battlefield deaths/day out of the 420 total.

In Iraq the single largest source of fatalities was, for a number of months, 'Revenge Killings' of Ba'athist regime members by those that they had ruled over. I believe Strategypage covered this and that started in Nov/Dec 2005 and continued at least until Feb 2006.

A strange sort of Civil War that employs more people in legitimate jobs as it continues (starting to get close to European levels), raises the standard of living, boosts the economy by the sales of goods for the home, increases agricultural output until Iraq is now an agricultural exporting Nation, has gone over any pre-war production of oil per month for a number of months and is hitting hard limits on equipment capacity, has required new electrical generators as so many people now have electrical appliances that it is causing problems, and, in general, seems to be stabilizing the Nation. If *that* is a Civil War, then the world could use a few more of those...


These smart guys are quick to bring up Vietnam, without any mention of how the US strategy adapted (painfully slowly) over time. From Westmoreland's abortive attempts to combat VC and NVA units directly, to Abram's strategy to build up the ARVN and defeat the VC through local forces. Abram's strategy was mostly successful, although too late for wavering US resolve. I'm very optimistic, since we applied the Abrams lesson (almost) from the very beginning in Iraq.

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