A Peace Plan!

The US and France have agreed on a peace plan!  Now all we need to do is get Hezbollah and Israel on board, and away we go!

Very late in the story the Times says this:

Israel has said it wants to keep fighting for two weeks or more to degrade Hezbollah’s military strength and its ability to launch rockets over the border. Hezbollah says it will not agree to a cease-fire until all Israeli troops pull out. Each is desperately seeking to claim victory.

Originally, the United States was widely seen as publicly stalling any diplomatic efforts at a cease-fire to give Israel more time to weaken Hezbollah.

But that appears to have changed as Hezbollah has proved a determined enemy, emerging as heroes in the Arab and Muslim worlds, and as Israel’s destruction of Lebanon’s infrastructure and the mounting civilian casualties here have brought increased international criticism.

I'm stumped - since a clear Israeli "victory" looks increasingly unlikely, is the US offering Israel a face-saving way out - Israel quit fighting because we pressured them, not because they wanted to?

And which nations will be providing peacekeepers peacemakers?

Comments

[windansea]

another cluster**** IMHO

Who in their right mind wants to volunteer to stand guard between the hezzies and the IDF?

I think you are watching to much CNN TM...you sound pessimistic :)

[Jane]

I subscribe to this notion: http://www.arabtimesonline.com/arabtimes/opinion/view.asp?msgID=1254

"HASSAN Nasrallah is in a quagmire."

[Frank Martin]

Since neither France nor the US are combatants in this war, This seems to carry as much weight as statements from Brazil and Chile on the future of Space Travel.

[clarice]

TM's joshing us again.

[SunnyDay]

Not funny. Israel must win.

[windansea]

what would a clear Israeli victory look like anyway??

kumbayah round the campfire?

a glass parking lot?

Jesus, Moses and Muhammad in a joint declaration?

[ahem]

Uh, I seriously doubt Israel has any intention of giving up. The west can't afford to let Israel give up. In the face of annihilation, the Israelis will fight to the last man. If we have any honor, we will ultimately help them in their battle.

This is all smoke and mirrors, signifying nothing.

[crosspatch]

If everything stopped today, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iran would have lost much in Lebanon. What Israel appears to be doing is different than in most conventional wars. They could have swept in, bypassed the towns and taken a lot of territory but that would leave them with the unfinished task of destroying the bunkers, weapons stocks, and Hezbollan fighters in the towns. Instead, Israel seems to be focusing on taking out the infrastructure and the fighters and not worring about occupying territory where Hezbollah isn't. In other words, the IDF is doing an exact opposite of what you do in a conventional war. Rather they bypass the ares of enemy strength, they are concentrating on them from the start, taking the toughest nut ... Bint Jbayal ... first.

Had the IDF swept through and taken all the open ground to the Litani ... which they could have done in a few days ... they would have an army of targets taking fire from the towns and villiages surrounding them in all directions. Initial casualties would be lower but would build up over time and they would still have to clear the towns anyway. But if they did that, they would risk a ceasefire being called before they had a chance to clear the villiages and tunnels and bunkers. Doing it this way and knowing they have limited time, they are exacting the maximum level of damage on Hezbollah in the time they will have to operate.

[maryrose]

TM:
Stop reading the NYT. We barely glance at it anymore. They are WAYY.. too negative and pessismistic. Hezbollah is going to be severely compromised and weakened as a result of their refusal to disband per the UN order over 2 years ago. The Israelis are running this show and anyone who says differently is just trying to spin you. I'm sure Nasrallah will soon be in a hidey-hole of his own if he isn't already there.
As for the leader of Iran-someone take him out...

[clarice]

Do you think Iran has unleashed Sadr now because (a) they are feeling on top of the world or (b) it's a hail Mary ?

I would have thought they'd be biding their time and doing this a bit later on were the answer (a).

[danking70]

I've long felt (and it was pretty obvious at the time) that al-Sadr would be a problem later on.

Even the intelligence then was saying he was in the pocket of Iran. Now we're dealing with Hezbollah and Iran's nuclear brinksmenship with al-Sadr protesting.

Iraq's going to get hot again.

[Tom Maguire]

I think you are watching to much CNN TM...you sound pessimistic :)

No, I am pretty much fully cocooned now, and yes, I am pessimistic.

[Bill Arnold]

I don't see Hezbollah going away as a paramilitary force. This is a made-for-recruitment war, for Hezbollah. They might run out of rockets but they will never run out of recruits, IEDs, or AK-47s.

It seems more likely that the Israelis are trying to be able to claim control over a deep border zone - not full control, but enough damage to Hezbollah to plausibly turn the operation over to another fighting force.

The no-Hezbollah zone would need to be deep enough that the cheap artillery rockets (including the extended-range ones) would have insufficient range to hit Israel. With the expensive longer-range rockets, there are alternatives, e.g. (a) aggressive spotting using aerial surveillance and rapid-response targeting with fighter aircraft, or (b) anti-missile technology. Or even (c) massive retaliation, e.g. if one of those long-range rockets gets through defenses and happens happens to have an improvised chemical warhead.

[crosspatch]

I don't see anything to say that al-Sadr has been "unleashed". What I see is an attempt by him and some other Shiite militias to clear Baghdad of Sunnis. The current government in Iraq has been completey seated for only a few months. There has been recent talk of getting rid of some cabinet ministers, particularly the interior minister who controls the police.

Honestly, at this point the only group that could make up a legitimate police force in Iraq is probably the kurds. Having the police controlled by the Shiite militias is just asking for trouble. Staffing the police with Kurds does two things. First of all it gets the police out of the control of the Shiite militias and secondly it makes legitimate police instantly recognizable. A group pretending to be police going on a death-squad mission would be quickly recognized as not being legitimate police because they would not be Kurds.

[Rick Ballard]

Here is the actual text of the proposed resolution. The end state is one that I'm sure that Israel would be happy to see.

The "getting there" part seems just a tad optimistic. It may take a few months (and Nasrullah's fortunate demise) for the hezzies to finally see the advantages offered. The surviving hezzies, that is.

[crosspatch]

oops, posted that last one to the wrong thread, I think

[clarice]

Listen--If you didn't see this unfolding on Sept 12, 2001, what were you thinking? What I didn't suppose was Iraq not being in the wider war, Syria being emasculated and Libya throwing in the towel.

If this (the vast upheavel in the ME)is all a surprise to you, don't play poker.

And I want to throttle anyone who says fighting back just creates more terrorists.Not fighting back creates more terrorists AND more sponsoring states.

[crosspatch]

I think a lot of the "rah! rah! rah!" stuff would end shortly after any ceasefire. Every day this operation goes on, Hezbollah is weaker relative to the Lebanese army. Israel has attacked some Lebanese coastal batteries, communications stations, and air defense units but has left the bulk of Lebanon's army alone.

The US has recently started talking about arms shipments to the Lebanese army. All of this places Hezbollah in a weaker military position with every passing hour. If a peace agreement is reached with the Lebanese goverment, without Hezbollah, Syria, or Iran playing a part ... then they will be seen as irrelevent politically in addtion to being increasing irrelevent militarilly.

[crosspatch]

Okay, this sounds strange:

Israel has lifted its demand for the deployment of a new multinational force in southern Lebanon and agreed that UNIFIL, the United Nations force already in place, would oversee the cease-fire.

[crosspatch]

uh, oh ... ladies and gentlemen.... looks like Reuters has been caught putting out doctored photos of bomb damage.

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=21956_Reuters_Doctoring_Photos_from_Beirut&only

[crosspatch]

oops -- link

Yikes, should have previewed it.

[Terrye]

I think we will have to deal with Sadr and he is Hezbellah's bastard. The military probably should have taken him out when they had him cornered in Najaf.

But as for this resolution, my understanding is that it is considered a diplomatic victory for Israel. I doubt the fighting will end any time soon however.

I am not pessimistic, but then I have grown accustomed to mayhem in the Middle East. It seems to be the norm and since when did Israel getting bad press represent news? This too is the norm. Too bad the NYT was not pushing the UN harder to do their job and carry through on Resolution 1559, this might not have happened.

[Terrye]

clarice:

I agree. We ran from terrorism, ignored terrorism or tried to treat it like a bank robbery for years and all we got out of that response or lack of response was a fatwa from AlQaida and 9/11. The Israelis backed off from Lebanon years ago and pulled out of Gaza last year and the Death to Israel crowd was not pacified.

[Gary Maxwell]

You know if that panty waist sweater wearing Jimmy Carter had defended American soil by sending in the troops to kick some Persian ass, none of this Hezbollah stuff would likely have happened. We should remind Carter fo this every damn time he opens his mouth and spouts off about anything in the MidEast. The worst President of modern times, by far.

[kate]

Since the conventinal wisdom seems to be that Iran is emerging as a powerful, regional power wielding influence throughout the region, I say expect the opposite.

Reminds me of how our policymakers and media were is awe of the powerful Soviet Union and sneering of how weak the post-Vietnam US was in comparison. They held that opinion right up until the day their beloved USSR fell.

Iran--the Mullahs are powerful and corrupt, the young are restless, the leader is crazed.

Watch Iran.

[Terrye]

kate:

Yes, they are always wrong aren't they? Besides, the Arabs will have none of that. They don't like the Persians. Their problems with the infidels pale in comparison to their problems with each other.

[lurker]

Tehran Sends Archterrorist Mughniyeh to Rescue Hizballah. “Our sources reveal Mughniyeh was ordered by Iran’s supreme ruler Ali Khamenei to take command of the South Lebanese warfront, after Israeli forces succeeded in driving Hizballah guerrillas into five pockets.” (Debka File)

We shall see.

[Assistant Village Idiot]

If Israel were losing, Arab nations would not be calling for a ceasefire now, would they?

[lurker]

If you go directly to the Debka website, the major headline for the above "Tehran" link says:

"DEBKAfile: As the tide of the Lebanon war begins to turn in Israel’s favor, Tehran sends a secret weapon to Hizballah’s rescue: archterrorist Imad Mughniyeh"

So everything's in Israel's favor. I say, "Give Israel time". As long as the Hezzies are sandwiched in with Israel on both sides, the harder it would be for Syria and Iran to continue resupplying Hezzies.

The Hezzies will continue to fire rockets for as long as they can.

Israel has to sweep the Lebanon land between Litani River and the Lebanon-Israel border to root out the Hezzies.

[Syl]

The New York Times:

Each is desperately seeking to claim victory.

The New York Times should drop the multi-cultural crap and actually LEARN about another culture.

(PC means never having to learn the other culture's thinking because, whatever it may be, it's just as valid as yours. So there's no point in figuring out what the hell they're going on about.)

To the Hezbollah, just staying alive to fight another day is called, wait for it, VICTORY.

As long as one rocket is left undestroyed Hezbollah will declare, wait for it, VICTORY.

There's no such thing as publicly 'crying uncle' in Hezbollah's world. There is, however, a private 'uncle!' and that's called ceasefire...which they will call VICTORY.

On the other hand, the Israelis have utterly decimated Hezbollah's social services infrastructure. Their private banking system no longer exists! How can Hezbollah lay claim to helping the Lebanese recover now?

So, one unelected man, nasrallah, has made decisions that effect the entire country of Lebanon and he can't fix what he broke.

It's going to be VERY important after the shooting stops to be sure that it is the international community and the lebanese themselves who fix lebanon and not Hezbollah.

The whatever victory they have declared will become a joke.

Israel has won its part of the battle, soon it will be out turn to win the after conflict battle of who rebuilds Lebanon.

[pdq332]

All of the peace talk is excellent turnabout: while Iran and Hezbollah cry for a ceasefire, Israel agrees pending action by the international community and/or the UNSC. Brilliant because that will happen about as quickly as molassas rolling uphill amidst a constant chatter of peace proposals.

And this week Kofi Annan was publicly upset that this particular ceasefire was taking so long to work out. Where were you in Bosnia, Rwanda, and Darfur, Kofi? When there's Jews to defeat, you're all over it, is that it? Thank goodness for molassas rolling uphill, Kofi! Ha ha ha. Just as fast as it takes you to, say, enforce UNSC resolutions against Iraq.

[larwyn]

crosspath
check this one out:
More Problems For Reuters at Riehl World - LOL!

On Sadr - he had demo in Sadr city his base. He has busses sent to south to transport. He planned on
one million and got one hundred thousand. One tenth!
But Sadr and the rest was us out and the DEMS to win in November and that's what the LSM wants too.
Rove must have sent mind rays to Nasralla - he sure is keeping terrorism and the lame UN front and center. That UN that the DEMS love. Does anybody but the brain damaged think you can negotiate with terrorists.
Stop with the "SUNSHINE PATRIOTS" crap. Look a whole picture and it is not bleak. Opportunities opening up on all fronts when you think about it.

[lurker]

So how many people will show up at Ramsey's protest march on August 12th?

Thought the Sadr protest was in Sadr City?

[lurker]

So...an Egyptian Islamic organization has joined Al Qaeda?

What do we know about "Gamaa"?

[Patton]

Bush should have stuck the UN and the EU in the eye and demanded the follow the Geneva conventions and label Hezbollah a terrorist organization.

Hezbollah is perfectly described in the Geneva conventions and Bush should make Kofi and the EU chew and swallow hard.

Bush should have said, "The US is committed to following the Geneva conventions, I just wish the UN and the EU would be civilized enough to do the same".

'Those who do not recognize Hezbollah as terrorists are directly responsible for all the civilians deaths in Lebanon.'

[lurker]

You're right, Patton. Most of our leftwingers do not recognize terrorism.

Olhmert Telling Europe to stop preaching to him about civilian casaulties. He told Europe that he did not underestimate Hezzie strength and knows that he would not be able to completely eliminate the Hezzies entirely. He knows that he's winning and weakening the Hezzies.

It's time for our LSM to stop preaching the negativity of the news.

[lurker]

And just like the Code Pink group as per Sweetness and Light. They are supposedly in Jordan meeting with some of the Iraqi people to pull our troops out.

[lurker]

IDF: We captured soldiers' kidnapper

Well, one of them!

[Terrye]

Talk about disproportianate. Look at pictures of Paris in WW2 or for that matter London in WW2, and then look at pictures of Hamburg and Dresden and even Berlin. Yes, when it comes to civilian deaths, the Europeans are in no position to preach to anyone.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

About an hour ago on CNN the WaPo's Thomas Ricks--of 'Fiasco' fame--stunned Howie Kurtz by saying that the Israelis are deliberately leaving pockets of Hezbollah unmolested in Lebannon, because, knowing that they (the IDF) will be killing Lebannese civilians, they want some Israeli civilian casualties too. For PR.

I'm waiting for the transcript to go up to see if I heard Rick's correctly, but Kurtz sure seemed to think that's what Ricks told him.

[mark c.]

what is it about Kofi Annan that makes my blood boil every time he speaks? is it the way he tut-tuts about the world's crises like he's above the fray, while his organization contributes nothing positive? maybe it's the regal bearing, as though he actually represents a single constituency(the world?) as an elected official. he should take his ill-gotten spoils and retire into obscurity to the fly-speck country he came from. and don't even get me started on Jimmuh "Craven" Carter.

[owl]

And I want to throttle anyone who says fighting back just creates more terrorists.Not fighting back creates more terrorists AND more sponsoring states.

Me too, clarice. The latest spin I just watched on FOX...the DNC spin doctor was just outraged over 'Bush's peace plan'.

Not kidding...it is now Bush's fault for calling for a cease fire and Bush is "against Israel". He was almost shouting it.

These lovers of all things UN, now reverse course with short memory spans. How can a Jewish voter pull a lever for these nuts?

[mark c.]

another thing. why is every effort made on behalf of this country callled a "Bush" initiative, plan or effort. why aren't they reported as an "American plan to end hostilities...." etc.. Are the media attempting to separate the admin. from the American people in the world's eyes?

[Gregdn]

Anyone who thinks Israel is going to destroy Hezbollah is sadly mistaken. This is just another flare up in the Middle East that will kill a bunch a people.
Tomorrow it will be back to the same way it was.
And- anyone who thinks we're going to create a 'Secular, U.S. and Israel friendly' government in Iraq needs to have their head examined.

[JM Hanes]

Soooo, Gregdn, thanks for sharing.