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August 04, 2006

Comments

windansea

guerilla :)

SteveMG

they can argue that by using gurilla tactics and hiding amongst civilians that they can last longer than a conventional force,

But for the ordinary Muslim or Arab in the Middle East, that's meaningless.

Try to think of this through the mind of someone in the Arab or Islamic world. After decades of seeing Arab armies quickly routed by Israel, they see Hezbollah withstanding several weeks of attacks.

I can see the myth taking hold: "Hezbollah stood up to the Zionists and forced Israel to retreat".

I could be - and am likely - completely full of it. Not for the first (or last) time, mind you.

SMG

YetAnotherRick

"I knew about the blogs before I didn't know about the blogs!"

windansea

Try to think of this through the mind of someone in the Arab or Islamic world.

I have to take a pass on that one....I might say something un PC

clarice

The lumpen Arab thinking is utterly bizarre. On some blog I read last night there was an illustrative story.
A man was being pestered in an oasis from his slumbers by noisy kids. To get them away he told them to go to another place where a man was handing out free chilled melons. The kids ran off and the man started to nap again only to wake thinking, "What am I doing here when free melons are available down the road?"

But that doesn't mean you must give in to these fairytales.

At some point it is obvious that lies will not bring back the dead, the lost weaponry, the destoryed facilities,the captured officials.
Reality bites even the deluded.

Patton

""Try to think of this through the mind of someone in the Arab or Islamic world.""

You mean:

What Would Murtha/Dingell/Rangel DO??

Patton

Boy, Mel Gibson sure isn't the Ditzie Chicks.

Remember when the media thought it was terrible and denied celebrities their rights when the public punishes them for using their free speech.

Seems the media isn't so quick to give Mel all the sympathy they heap on the Chicks.

Extraneus

This part of the OT discussion makes you wonder if Israel hadn't already determined that they might want to use this opportunity to help Hezbollah take over the Lebanese gov't officially, just like Hamas did the Palestinian Authority (or whatever they call it). They'll then be responsible for civil, infrastructure, and other related headaches, and have a real army, which would then be just as easy for the IDF to deliver a humilating defeat as others before them.

Oh, and as for the UN, it wasn't obvious to me until I thought more about it that if the US and France are negotiating the agreement, then France is speaking for the Hezbos. Duh. (Interesting.)

Rick Ballard

Clarice,

The real advantage to Israel in this is that the Israelis are able to take the full measure of their government. The most positive thing that I have seen is the statements by the Four Mothers that they were wrong. I suppose the equivalent here would be for Code Pink to demonstrate in favor of bombing Tehran.

Unless Nasrullah is killed prior to withdrawal I don't believe that Olmert should make any long term plans for continuing to sit in the PM's chair.

PeterUK

Clarice,
Yes six years - the Nazis had from the Enabling Act of 1933 to the outbreak of war in 1939,they then had until 1944 to build the defences against invasion,why is anyone surprised?

Gary Maxwell

Ohmert dithered and told the world he could not sleep. Otherwise the IDF would be taking a refreshing dip in the Litani River right now. The Israelis need a new forceful leader once the shooting stops. For now they need to dance with the one that brung em, desite his flaws.

Sara (The Squiggler)

Lurker -- Syria sees the writing on the wall. Someone there has finally gotten the message that it is far better to be a friend of the U.S. than an enemy.

In a post I have up today, the Israeli fallout for the Dems is evident Big three endorsement even though the challenger is running on a pro-gay marriage, pro tax 'em platform.

and then there is this one

Gary Maxwell

Enod the world is near. Human Rights Watch gets around to condemning Hizbullah. Little late boys, but we know your heart not really in it. Here is the press release:

Hizbullah must immediately stop firing rockets into civilian areas in Israel, Human Rights Watch said Saturday.

"Lobbing rockets blindly into civilian areas is without doubt a war crime," said Kenneth Roth, executive director of Human Rights Watch. "Nothing can justify this assault on the most fundamental standards for sparing civilians the hazards of war."

Sara (The Squiggler)

Sorry, I cut my own post off ... should finish with ...

and then there is this one So pink he's purple Says it all as far as I'm concerned. Go Diana Irey.

PeterUK

The IDF is using exactly the right tactics,Hezbollah are fighting the Chechen way,ambushes ,sniping, highly mobile between prepared positions,they are not standing and fighting in the conventional way.If the IDF were to advance too fast,Hezbollah would emerge behind them after the IDF had rolled over.IDF troops are saying Hezbollah is fighting hard,but they do not know where they are coming from.

clarice

15% of the Israeli population is still in shelters. The economy is in terrible shape, and yet they have faith in their troops and their government. It is remarkable and enviable cohesion in a state made up of people from everywhere in the world and known for its fractiousness.

Yes, PUK, Israel seems to have considered that a quick advance would have left them more vulnerable. Like Rick, I think they are sacrificing their best to spare civilians, though as we see from NGO's like those pukes at HRW, it gains them little.

OTOH I cannot believe this is helpful for the Dems. Marty Peretz may be loath to say it out loud but he knows what I have for some time, we cannot put our faith in the Dems at this time, and at some time you have to stand for something even if it means you no longer have a welcome place at soirees in D.C. (I miss them not at all. Like turning off tv, I find it is good for one's mental health to be honest and forego all that.)

Extraneus

And on a lighter note, from AllahPundit...the babes of the IDF.

PeterUK

Clarice,
Some views of troops back combat.Much of this reflects Russia's exoerience in">http://www.chechenpress.co.uk/english/news/2006/07/23/02.shtml"> Chechnya.

Who's Soiree Now?

PeterUK

In facy I would wager that the IDF has not pursued its usual rapid advance, because after initial contact, it was realised that the response of Hezbollah was tailored to that form of warefare.

windansea

PUK

exactly right...I say give IDF all the time it needs....who cares about world opinion as they are mostly a bunch of whining wankers anyway

Patton

I tried to comment on the IDF the other day. Don't think it posted.

First, everything your hearing in the media is BS. Try to think of it in REALITY terms.

Isreal has been watching the Hezbos for 6 years. They are not stupid and have a game plan. Unlike us, they prefer the press doesn't know the plan otherwise they will go running to the Hezbos with the plan and ask for their reaction.

So, it appears Isreals plan was fairly simple:

1. Conduct a strategic bombing campaign
to reduce the Hezbos ability to resupply, retreat, communicate, plan, etc.

2. Fake that you aren't willing to put troops on the ground - the press and the Hezbos will eat that up.

3. Allow the Hezbos to keep firing the Katushas, but watch and monitor them and hit targets of oppotunity. THE PRESS HAS THIS ALL WRONG THINKING THE ISREALIS SHOULD IMMEDIATELY ATTACK THE KATUSHAS. First, that would mean the fight would be over too soon since the Hezbos wouldn't be 'firing' on Isreal. The Katushyas are a terror weapon of little strategic or tactical value, but they do get the public supporting the IDF action.

4. Continue strategic bombing and targets of opportunity while punching a hole in the Hezbos front line, get behind Hezbos front line, best trained fighters who have been planning for years to fight from the front.

5. In the end, envelope the Hezbos front ground forces, cut them off and kill them.
While finally committing to taking as many Katusha launchers and weapons caches out as possible. This will be done when most of the strategic targets have been dealt with.

The Hezbos have limited frontline fighters
who are going to be stuck with Isreal air and ground power raining down on them and Syrai and Iran will be helpless to get them any help.

When Nasrallah comes out of his hole, his empire will be destroyed, his infrastructure devestated, his hundreds of millions spent from Iran blown to bits.

He'll have the property, but his buildings and other infrasructure will be in ruins and he'll have to go back to Iran for more
money, while Iran may soon be facing sanctions.

If the Hezbos attack Tel Aviv, Isreal will
bomb Lebanon back a few centuries.

A couple more weeks and it will be wrapped up.

Patton

If Nasrallah was smart, he would have stopped the rockets right after the Qana incident and had a big 'moral' victory.

The world opinion would be far worse if Isreal just kept bombing and no one is firing back. The rockets hitting Isreal are them main reason Isreal is getting any slack from 'world opinion'.

But Nasrallah can't help himself, and that will be his downfall.

Patton

It would have been suicide for the IDF to hit all of Hezbos front line bunkers in the first days. They would have been facing fresh and ready Hezbos, some of their best fighters.

Much better to cut off their supplies, let them sit and stir and their rations, water and nerves wear thin. They have probably lost alot of their ability to communicate, they have been going with little sleep and prepared for battle on nerves edge for weeks. They will get tired and stupid. The have been pinned down for a couple weeks now from shelling and bombing. They will be much easier to defeat after a decent beating.

PeterUK

Patton,
Yes,I don't subscribe to the "spasm" school of thought,it might have been a political spasm,but a military one never! The Staff Colleges and Central Command will have been studying this option for years.It is ludicrous to think that Israeli military intelligence has not been all over Southern Lebanon for years,there will be those who speak fluent arabic and can pass as Arabs in Israel,of course agents and SF have been over for a shufti.
The Katyusha's are a different problem,since they are a relatively simple missile which can be fired from batteries or singly,essentially they can be left all over the place and fired by any Hezbollah in the vicinity.The answer is to get rid of those who know how to fire them.

PeterUK

Patton,
I don't think Hezbollah's frontline is like the Maginot line,it is more defence in depth,with strongpoints scattered over the region.These can be accessed by a highly mobile fighters who use them as an when neccessary.There will be arms caches and supply dumps where the fundamentally civilian Hezbollah can retrieve what they need for an attack before melting into the general population once more.Have a look at Chechen tactics.

Patton

PUK,

I think near the border, there won't be any civilians, nor villages. Isreal is flattening them. If you stayed, you are Hezbos in the IDFs eyes.

On the Katushyas, Isreal will be happy to get rid of the main elements that at least may be capable of actually hitting soemthing. The ones with launchers, planned out launch sites, cache of missiles, etc.

As long as some Katushyas are still being launched, Isreal has justification to continue air strikes.

Sara (The Squiggler)

Patton -- check your email, okay?

Rick Ballard

Lamont's hometown paper endorses Lieberman. Not exactly a stirring endorsement but they have apparently taken Lamont's measure and found him lacking.

Sara (The Squiggler)

Watching Russert's show (CNBC) and the Time Mag. guest is saying that killing off Lieberman is short-sighted and Nutroots controlled. I nearly fell out of my chair.

Sara (The Squiggler)

Oops, Freudian slip ... Nutroots should be Netroots ... oh forget it ... Nutroots!

Sara (The Squiggler)

And going along with the discussion upthread about the average deaths per day under Saddam, Russert "the brilliant" asks "how long will the Iraqi people support Maliki with death rates of 100 a week?" Let see, 100 a week vs. approx. 70-125 a day for 8000 days, hmmmm?

It isn't that anybody wants there to be any civilian deaths, but do these guys have any inkling how stupid and uninformed they sound? Frankly, I think Tim Russert/Meet the Press and all the rest of the talking head shows should be replaced with a "Just One Minute Roundtable."

Pete

topsecretk9 | August 04, 2006 at 10:29 PM and 10:30

I am not a commenter at FDL. I have even stated here at JOM that there are far better blogs on the left than FDL.

I still stand by my comment that Tom Maguire's characterization of Lamont's "brazen lie" about his association with Jane is not any less of a brazen lie than what Bush said about his association with Abramoff.

larwyn

Dedicated to Pete, Sam and their fellow travelers:

FellowPeacekeeper
posted this in comments to Shrinkwrapped's "Clans of the Alphane Moon"
http://shrinkwrapped.blogs.com/blog/2006/08/clans_of_the_al.html#comment-20722245

Seems exactly what we seeing on two fronts:

Not really surprising if one considers that the nature of decision making is similar for both individuals and organizations, and so are the symptoms of breakdown.

In Boyd's Obsevation-Orientation-Decicision-Action model (aka OODA loop) one the striking features is how orientation can subvert observation.

Prior ideological assumptions are one cause of mis-orientation. The facts are fit into the available ideological framework, even if they don't really fit (think socialist rhetoric about the application of marxist principles to near everything).

Now, normally the results of action based on misorientation are at variance with he expected results, and changes are made. If changes are not made (for instance due to rigid ideological dogma) the increasing disparity between the expected and actual results tends to cause confusuion and disorder, increasing incoherance and irrationality until the critical point where the basic assumptions are requestioned (in your terms : a break). Note that as misorientation increases, the symptoms tend become more pronounced. Under pressure it turns to panic and chaos. The symptoms of a busted cycle are familiar - the arab world, the fuhrerbunker, the late USSR, the MSM/leftists.

The results of total organization breakdowns is also familiar - remember the huge and terrifying overmilitarized nuclear USSR? It just blew away in the wind more or less overnight when people stopped pretending to believe.

The result should be that since the MSM no longer provides usefull information, individuals will walk away and seek elsewhere (we are already seeing this in the growth of the blogosphere). The left is liable to experience a break, in an individual this would be a catastrophe, but for an organization - well, it will simply disintegrate as individuals walk away. The problem is the damage done before this happens.

The MSM/left combination is dangerous since the loop is compartmentalised and a positive feedback loop of syncophancy is generated. The MSM only feed forward the "facts" as filtered through their particular prism. They do not take decisions and there is little feedback from actions to change their warped orientation/ideological assumptions. On the other hand the consumers of the MSM find that actions based on that information fail, but cannot change the orientation of the MSM which continues to pump away.


Posted by: Fellow Peacekeeper | August 05, 2006 at 05:33 AM
is in Iraq and has a blog:
http://therearguard.blogspot.com/

Sara (The Squiggler)

Pete, can you point me to the link where Abramhoff personally directed/produced video that Bush appeared in?

lurker

"brazen lie" versus brazen lie?

Big difference. So you're NOT convinced of Lamont's double-quoted "brazen lie" but STRONGLY convinced of Bush's un-doubled quoted brazen lie?

And it was enough to make you absolutely HATE Bush?

Wow.

lurker

After listening to Nasrallah's recent speech, it should be to no one's surprise why Pete, Spamming Sam, Cleown, Jerry, Jeff, and their ilk without enough background and history to be so easily led astray for the wrong reasons.

Jane

On Stephanopolous today: Ned Lamont's favorite president is Teddy Roosevelt (who was "barely" a republican and would be a democrat today).

(Follow up question not asked: Does that mean Jack Kennedy would be a republican today?)

Steph asked him if he lied about his familiarity with blogs since he netroots were part of his base. He said there were 100's of blogs out there, some support him and when he found out about "that picure" he said it was terrible.

(No follow up about the poodles frolicking behind him and peeing on his foot)

The conversation with Lieberman was all about how could be possibly be called a loyal democrat if he was willing to run as an independant.

Jane

Jim Dean (Brother of John Dean - I didn't know) speaking for Ned Lamont on Meet the Press gets rather decimated by Tim Russert, with a little bit of help from Lanny Davis.

Dean sends this is an issue of "incumbency" revolt.

The last and only word was about the "bloggers" and Lanny Davis said he was against bloggers calling candidates they didn't agree with, "evil".

maryrose

Jane;
My husband thought that Jim dean looked more like Howard dean's brother. i saw the show and remained unconvinced that Lamont will prevail. Lanny said all 5 Connecticut papers endorsed Lieberman. We'll see on Tuesday. Lanny's comments about this campaign of lies against Lieberman sounded legit.

maryrose

Go Joe! I'm behind you all the way.

Pete

It was a great day for democracy! Lamont won the primary and Lieberman lost!

And if Liberman runs as an independent in Nov he'll lose again.

Lurker

Maryrose, I was just thinking about emailing Lieberman along with a small donation to help him win in November. :)

SSSSOOOOOO glad McKinney LOST!! Hope she doesn't run again.

lurker

Powerline's

lurker

Link was not added so...

Powerline's
Analysys

John McIntyre's analysis helps, too.

Both analyses seem to be accurate. We will see.

JJ

As far as what Lamont means for the Democrats, surprised that no one here picked up on Cokie Robert's comments on a Lamont win pushing the party into the fringes -- the fringes that is left-side blogdom.

If anything Roberts, who is a pretty sharp long-time political analyst (being the daughter of Hale Boggs), identifies the left-side bloggers as the side of the party that typically loses when they dominate.

On This Week, says Roberts:

STEPHANOPOULOS: Time now for the roundtable. I am joined, as always, by George Will. Welcome back to Sam Donaldson and Cokie Roberts. And let's - let's start out talking about this Lamont-Lieberman race. Cokie, let me ask you, Joe Lieberman is not the only Democrat, far from it, to support the war. Let me ask you the question I asked him. How did this happen?

ROBERTS: I think Connecticut is a more liberal state. You saw it there. It's -- it's very blue, and -- and you've got the -- the guy with a lot of money who is able to come in and take advantage of it. But it's -- it's, I think, a disaster for the Democratic Party, and it's going to be very interesting to see what happens as a result of it.

STEPHANOPOULOS: Disaster for the Democratic Party? Why?

ROBERTS: Yes. I do, because, I think that first of all, that pushing the party to the left, which is what's likely to happen, is pushing the party to the position from which it traditionally loses. And --

STEPHANOPOULOS: In presidential elections.

ROBERTS: In presidential elections, but also it will send a signal to everybody in the Senate: "Watch out. The only smart thing to do here is play to your base." And then that -- what that means is that your legislation becomes a mess, which it already is, but even more of a mess, and you get --

I hope it foretells a split in the Democratic Party.

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