Dems To Take House - Real Thing, or Summer Fling?

The NY Times ends a rainy Labor Day weekend with a headline designed to cheer their readership:

G.O.P. Seen to Be in Peril of Losing House

 

By ROBIN TONER and KATE ZERNIKE

 

WASHINGTON, Sept. 3 — After a year of political turmoil, Republicans enter the fall campaign with their control of the House in serious jeopardy, the possibility of major losses in the Senate, and a national mood so unsettled that districts once considered safely Republican are now competitive, analysts and strategists in both parties say.

Sixty-five days before the election, the signs of Republican vulnerability are widespread.

   

Time will tell.  However, let me pick on one detail - the Times coverage of the impact of high gasoline prices on the electoral outlook:

In the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, just 29 percent said the country was headed in the right direction, a measure of national pessimism that rivals the 26 percent who felt that way in October 1994. The war in Iraq, the price of gas and a sense of economic unease all play roles, analysts say.

And a bit later:

Democrats will be pushing hard to remind voters of the big picture, and their frustrations with it. In southeastern Indiana, Baron Hill, a Democrat who is trying to reclaim the Congressional seat he lost two years ago to Representative Mike Sodrel, held an event at a gas station where he pumped fuel at a 2004 price, $1.80, rather than $2.79.

“People are angry,” Mr. Hill said. “They want to know why we’re paying $3 a gallon and Congress is giving tax breaks to oil companies.”

Mr. Hill is making the right point - if oil companies need tax incentives for production even with $70 crude, we have other problems.

However, there is a slight wind at the Republicans back which the Times does not mention - gasoline prices typically peak during the summer driving season and then drop.  This illusory progress may help the Reps come November  (The next official outlook is due out on Sept 12).

Meanwhile the NY Times Election Guide breaks down the House races as follows:
Safe Dem, 189; Leaning Dem, 17; Toss-Up, 16; Leaning Rep, 21; Safe Rep, 192.

If the Reps can collect all their "Safes" and "Leaners" they only need to add five of the sixteen toss-ups to retain control.  Conversely, the Dems need to pick up their safes, their leaners, and tweleve of sixteen toss-ups.

Comments

[Dwilkers]

FWIW gas prices have fallen here in Houston from right at $3 to the low $2.40's, something like 20% I guess. I don't think momentary gas prices drive elections though. Well generally. I guess a sudden $1 spike could tip things if it were played correctly by the Dems. It will be interesting to see how the campaign starts to shape up over the next few weeks.

[Other Tom]

Tradesports has GOP House majority at 43.1 today. Senate is about 81.

[maryrose]

I don't care what the reason is;lower gas prices right before the election can only spell good news for the repubs.
NYT is engaging in wishful thinking as is their wont the nearer we get to the day that the PEOPLE DECIDE! That's always a reality check for dems as it will be this November.

[maryrose]

Sorry, forgot to answer the thread question: definitely a summer fling of fancy and fantasy.

[Foo Bar]

TM,

This comment is actually regarding "WaPo Wacks Wilson", 2 posts ago. Sorry to post off-topic, but I get the impression you're not reading the comments over there anymore and therefore missed my comments here and here.

The "call in the auditors" section of that post is wrong. You used the wrong date range and hence the wrong set of GAO reports. The first 15 months of the Fitz investigation is Jan '04 through the end of March '05. If you use the relevant GAO reports, you get a total of $724K. It checks out (within $1K). There is no discrepancy for The Next Hurrah to square.

Please fix.

Thanks.

[hrtshpdbox]

Gas is dropping because the price of oil continue to drop, and there's a glut of it; it's been massively stockpiled in anticipation of Iran troubles, and that appears to be a stalemated situation for the time being. As the RNC hasn't even started their election push in earnest (who would be taking over those House committees?), the TradeSports wager is a great buy.

[rXapt]

Elect Dems and we will move towards energy independence. Afterall, the Dems favor drilling for oil in Anwar and off the coast. Don't they? And the Dems favor a return to nuclear power plants and more use of coal, the one abundant source of energy in the US. Don't they?

And the Dems will give us more ethanol at taxpayer subsidized prices. KOOL!

And maybe the Dems will shut down WalMart and stop all this free trade stuff that is hurting the american consumer by forcing him to buy more goods and services at lower prices.

[AMDG]

I take little comfort in the supposition that the the Republicans need to only take 5 of the 16 toss-ups.

I would guess that the toss-ups would tend to end up going the same way and that if they do you would see see several leaners go the way of the toss-ups.

[Sue]

Chuck Schumer said on Fox yesterday that democrats will lower gas prices. Without telling us how. How do you lower gas prices? I remember another democrat controlling oil prices. That worked out well, didn't it?

[Semanticleo]

Gas prices have a lot more to do with polls than we would like to think, but Peak Oil
assures us there is no end to high prices, just an end to availability. So if it is the
hope that the numbers might turn before Nov because Joe Lunchbox is grateful for the
reduction in gas pains, it is thin, at best.

[Sue]

One thing for sure, if the economy we are seeing today was under a democratic president, we would be hearing a different tune.

[jwest]

This is just another example of the mental cruelty practiced by liberals on themselves.

Has there ever been a time when polls that favor democrats actually materialize into votes? When looking at polls from ’94 on through ’04, it is obvious that either through the wording of questions or the weighting of results democrats are consistently overestimated .

The GOP was supposed to suffer a loss with Duke Cunningham’s seat. Paul Hackett was the great liberal hope of Ohio. All the hype was proven misplaced when the actual votes were counted.

House seats don’t change hands on national issues. The Senate does swing with some influence of the administration, but other factors have a bigger impact. Our fine MSM is barely mentioning the likely Senate pickups for the GOP in New Jersey, Maryland and definitely Michigan.

Liberals make an industry out of deluding themselves with polls that reinforce their theory of being in the majority. Come November, Carville will be placing a bag over his head as the results are read, Sharpton will be yelling about disenfranchisement and the moonbats will blame Diebold once again.

[Sue]

I don't know what republicans are worried about. They merely need to steal another election. No problems.

[Jane]

Liberals make an industry out of deluding themselves with polls that reinforce their theory of being in the majority. Come November, Carville will be placing a bag over his head as the results are read, Sharpton will be yelling about disenfranchisement and the moonbats will blame Diebold once again.

From your lips...

The left has developed a perfect election model; If they don't win, the election has been stolen. There is simply no other possibility. And the sad part is, they believe it.

[patch]

Ahem...

The Myth of "Peak Oil"

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?Id=1717

[Jane]

OT: Kofi Annan has agreed to mediate the release the of the 2 soldiers abducted in Lebanon.

Perhaps he will Iran to help.

[lurker]

Funny, 1701 called for an unconditional release of those 2 soldiers!

[jwest]

Democrats are making a big push this year to capture state offices, like Secretary of State and Attorney General.

This is in response to the racist policies of the GOP, such as the recent disenfranchisement of 50,000 black voters in the city of Detroit by the Republican Sec. of State, Terry Lynn Land. With the help of another Republican, Attorney General Mike Cox, these remnants of the plantation era capriciously decided that these people were guilty of “voting while black”.

The fact that these voters were also dead showed the insensitivity of the GOP.

[lurker]

Captain's Quarters has a different take on this poll.

The democrats are pushing really hard for Nick Lampson to win Texas district 22.

[lurker]

Cantrell isn't going to do well. Wasn't she accused of voter fraud?

[Other Tom]

Reading Hugh Hewitt's interview with Stuart Rothenberg is surely not encouraging.

On any list of subjects about which the public and the media are pitiably uninformed, the pricing of oil and gas has to be in the top three every year since at least 1973. I assume that Chuck Schumer knows at least something about the world oil market, but it's certainly not in his interest to let the cat out of the bag.

[Jane]

Right, but let's negotiate anyway. Maybe we can really stick it to them this time.

Sheesh get rid of the UN.

[Semanticleo]

Not sure why Ludwig has any business discussing Peak Oil when he has, by his own admission, no expertise outside economics. He even speculates oil may be quasi-'renewable' as fossil fuels have algae and plankton components extant to this day.
Not exactly within the usual conservative mainstream, is he. But, what the hell, it supports the conservative POV, right?

Never mind the real scientists who don't really know what the situation in the Persian Gulf geography, because for twenty years the Saudi's and Iranians have refused to allow the Society of Petroleum Engineers to survey for reserves. But, in the rest of the world, they have been surveying;

"Altogether, according to ChevronTexaco, out of 48 significant oil-producing nations worldwide, 33 are already experiencing declining production. Few doubt that the rate of oil production for the world in total will peak at some point. That point is known as peak oil. If the peak were to occur within the next five years, national economies could not adjust quickly enough without major dislocations, while a peak 20 years hence would present easier adaptation, assuming we begin adapting now."

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewPrint&articleId=11320

[Semanticleo]

BTW;

The consensus seems to be 2020. That gives us 14 years. Will we use it wisely?

[SunnyDay]

I heard global warming will increase the supply of oil. :)))

[lurker]

ali-cleown, nope.

[Uncle BigBad]

Cleo

If you're talking about Ludwig von Mises, you should know he's been dead lo these many years.

Further, he refused to call himself conservative. He insisted he was a liberal. (He would insist that people who call themselves liberals today are simply nuts).

One of his main theses was that there was always an element of self-interest even in altruistic behavior.

[Semanticleo]

Patch cited Ol' Ludwig. I was responding

[Daniel DiRito]

Not unlike a football game, voters are in the position to gauge the potential of each side to succeed. That process involves evaluating the game plans of both teams before placing ones bet (vote). The fact that most people bet on the favorite cannot be ignored. Many people like to see the long shot win the game or the horse race...but they rarely bet on that outcome absent tangible evidence.

The Democrats may be the sentimental favorite as voters may have grown tired of seeing the frontrunner run the table over and over...but if switching ones bet is predicated upon personal safety (terrorism), it may well mean voters will enter the ballot box and choose the Party that has a track record of winning even though they may not like the way that Party has executed the race.

This midterm election may turn out to be a Seabiscuit moment...but the GOP and their "War Admiral", George Bush, a "Man O'War"...may be an all too terrifying obstacle.

Read more here:

www.thoughttheater.com

[noah]

Will we run out of cheap oil? Definitely but nobody knows when exactly...there are billions of barrels of the stuff in Iran, Iraq, and ANWR. Offshore oil production is already "not cheap". Venezuela and Iran have declining production because of incompetence not lack of reserves.

Are the American people stupid enough to think that Democrats will bring back cheap gas? I suppose anything is possible.

[Terrye]

I would think that if it were possible for a politician to bring back cheap gas, Bush would do it. For his own sake.

[PeterUK]

I am always glad when Sematicleo comments,it reminds me to run the System Defragementer which is so much more interesting.

To quote a wise Sheik "The Stone Age ended before we ran out of stones".

[PeterUK]

Why would Al Gore,for example,want to bring back cheap oil? How do the Democrats square the belief in Anthropogenic Global Warming and cheap gas?

[Sue]

How do the Democrats square the belief in Anthropogenic Global Warming and cheap gas?

The same way they square driving SUVs, flying private jets, living in multiple mansions.

[Alan]

If the GOP loses control of the House one thing is certain. The Religious Right and social conservatives will say it was because the GOP wasn't pro-life enough that they stayed home. Forget the GOP's downward spiral began with a memo, no doubt written on a spiritual high after prayer breakfast, which caused congress to stop everything and appeal for the life Terry Shiavo's empty shell.

[clarice]

Yesterday I reread a Wash Po article (dated I beleieve Oct 2, 2004) predicting the outcome of the Senate races. They were right on only 2 out of their 6 predictions.

Jay Cost notes that state polls are nototiously bad.

I say the Reps will hold both houses.

[clarice]

Edited for typos:Yesterday I reread a Wash Po article (dated I believe Oct 2, 2004) predicting the outcome of the Senate races. They were right on only 2 out of their 6 predictions.

Jay Cost notes that state polls are notoriously bad.

I say the Reps will hold both houses.

[Syl]

assuming we begin adapting now

We have a real enemy and are engaged in a real war. The overseas stuff is the easy part. It's the next level we get to at home that will be hard if we're not careful.

Scaremongering?

No more scaremongering than 'We're running out of oil! We're all gonna die! Do something now!' and 'The earth is warming! We're all gonna die! Do something now!'

It's just so much nicer to worry about peak oil and global warming than Islamofascism 'cause we don't have to do all that yukky killing and war stuff.

I wanna war on SUVs, Wal-Mart, and CO2 instead.

Sheesh.

[Soylent Red]

Let us not forget that the Dems have always been somewhat at the mercy of the enviro-nuts, and to a large degree still are.

Historically, this has brought about such folly as restrictive exploration controls and over regulation of refinery construction, two of the biggest root causes in our current woes.

They have also come out on the record over the years against drilling ANWR, coal oil production, oil shale extraction in the Rockies, expanded offshore drilling, and nuclear power generation. Add to that all of the very public nonsense about displacing owls, toads, moose, piss ants, etc.

In short, Dems have done a lot to foster the idea that they are anti-domestic energy. People won't forget that, no matter what the current DNC "Plan for the Salvation of Humanity" proposes or how much the Left bashes energy company margins. There's just too long a track record of the Democrats mouths working against them.

I don't, however, believe gas prices will be the critical factor in November. It may contribute, but along with war fatigue and stock market volatility, I get the sense all of this revolves around (unfounded) mass "bad vibrations" about things in general.

[Daddy]

TM,
Gas prices here in Alaska for regular, where the stuff is sucked out of the tundra, seem to be holding at about $2.70. Interesting doings however are going on up here. Our first scandal is that we've got a major pipeline currently out of service and rotting due to BP's gross failure to adequately test and maintain for corrosion. Second, we've just in the last few days got some huge FBI investigation going on, supposedly involving 20 subpoena's, and multiple state congressmen mostly Republican's) being investigated even as we speak for suspected corrupt dealings with VECO, a huge sort of mini-Haliburton gas middleman company. Most interesting is that the headlined state congressmen under investigation is Ben Steven's, son of Ted Steven's of "Pork Bill Blocking/Bridge to Nowhere" fame.
Granted we are a sparsely populated state, and way off the radar screens of the East Coast media maven's, but this episode seems to me to have the potential to hit the national media fan in a big way, and should that happen, it'll definitely be to the detriment of the Republican's; ie "Good old boy Republican fat cats caught once again in bed with Corrupt Big Oil".

[Lew Clark]

Don't be so sure the Democrats in control can't solve the oil crisis. All they have to do is restrict private transportation to the "Party Elite". That's the way you do it in a socialist workers paradise. The common people will walk. Except on those rare days when the poorly constructed solar buses actually work. We have plenty of domestic oil to provide for the needs of our betters!

[Alan]

If we made an effort to get off of burning oil, the money used to finance islamic fascism would dry up. I'm for promoting the use of electric cars...run on batteries or hydrogen fuel cells. Let's do it; but not out of fear of global warming but to stick it to Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

[Martin]

No worries. If Nagin can get re-elected Mayor of new Orleans, the Repubs can definitely maintain control of Congress.

[SunnyDay]

Gas prices have people bitching, but they haven't stopped driving. Spending is up. Everything is up. Unemployment is down.

Unexpectly, of course. Always unexpectedly good news - but not that good and besides, we will have bad news soon. If not, it will be phrased so that it sounds like bad news. Or it will be unexpected.

[windansea]

what me worry? :)

[jwest]

Alan,

If Bush proposed building 1000 identical 2GW nuclear reactors across the country to eliminate imported oil, would you enthusiastically support the program?

[Alan]

Yes!

[Specter]

More on Ned's campaign here.

As for oil consumption, ethanol is coming (due to Republican backing) and the free market will take care of cars and other transportation. Check out the Tesla here.

[SunnyDay]

If Nagin can get re-elected Mayor of new Orleans...

heh! I do hope you're not comparing. Bad choice. ;)

those folks in NOLA will deserve whatever happens next time. I'm sorry but there is no excuse for this. But, you can't fix stupid.

I think the average American isn't overwhelmingly swayed by the rhetoric and polls. A lot of them vote by name recognition only, couldn't tell you how their legislators voted on anything, unless it directly affected them.

[Syl]

Are people really putting up with the Dem grousing about everything?

I know they expect the party out of power to criticize, but the Dems are hysterically negative.

Failure, incompetence, catastrophe, corruption, spying, slayers of the middle class!

Much more of this and voters will simply start rolling their eyes--if they aren't doing so already.

It's all gloom and doom and failure.

Yes, the citizenry want change! They want the Dems to shut up already and get real.

Americans are optimistic at heart.

[Bruce Hayden]

If you want to get scared about Democratic control of the house, you may be interested in WSJ: Presumptive Democratic House Chairmen from a WSJ Article on who the expected major House chairs would be. Conyers of course is already planning on impeachment hearings, but does anyone here remember Alcee Hastings? He was one of the few federal judges ever impeached and removed from office. And guess what? He is slated to be the chair of the Intelligence Committee.

[Soylent Red]

I'm for promoting the use of electric cars...run on batteries or hydrogen fuel cells. Let's do it; but not out of fear of global warming but to stick it to Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

There's a line in the movie "Syriana" that reinforces this perspective:

You know what the business community thinks of you? They think that a hundred years ago you were living in tents out here in the desert chopping each other's heads off and that's where you'll be in another hundred years.

I too would like nothing better than to completely eliminate foreign oil from the equation, stock up Israel with all the arms they can buy, and forget the Middle East exists.

Unfortunately, China and India are rapidly catching up to us in oil consumption and will probably overtake us by mid-century, so the notion that "the money dries up" only works if the rest of the world goes off oil too.

And while it would strengthen our negotiating position in some ways, the biggest leverage the West has on anything going on domestically in places like KSA or Iran or Venezuela is that we are currently their best customers. IOW, while they may be squeezing us, they need us to keep their economies percolating.

Any kind of pull-the-plug economic change would cause rapid and catastrophic effects. Revolutions are not an exact science and the list of potential outcomes that could be as bad or worse than what we're dealing with now is lengthy. Particularly when you factor in cash reserves being used to fund nukes.

That would, of course, necessitate more involvement, and with less leverage.

Short term solution is to bite the bullet and increase domestic production and refining. Long term fix is to move away from a petroleum economy while engaging and helping these people diversify their economies and liberalize their politics.

Nope. We're not going anywhere anytime soon, and there will be a lot of nose holding while we transition these people from autocratic oil economies to diverse capitalist democracies.

[Soylent Red]

Specter:

There's a lengthy review of the Tesla in this month's Esquire. Very cool, very fast car.

Interestingly enough, they are thinking of putting programmable engine noise audio into it for all the sportscar purists who like screaming over the sound of their V-8s.

[windansea]

I am cool with a fast Tesla with a sound track

do they come in 4x4??

[larwyn]

Soylent,
Just read at LGF that Germany and other Euro's including the UK are not allowing Israel flights to land/refuel if they are carrying arms! Guess they want to force them to release 1,000's of Arab terrorists - poor Hez's lost 500/600 and they need restocking.

NEW DEM STRATEGY
Dana Bash just reported the secret DEM strategy behind their call for Rumsfeld's resignation.

CNN's Bash was reporting from Illinois on a House race there with the DEM an Iraqi War vet.
When asked if she (VET) agrees with forcing the resignation of Rumsfeld, she said, "NO!"

Bash then explained that was the strategy...by the DEMS leaders calling for the resignation, it gives individual campaigns the opportunity to look independent by
disagreeing with them.
See this shows that a DEM House won't just be a rubber stamp for DEM leaders as the REPUB House is for GW.
Got it? Those sly dogs.

And Flopping Aces has:

The Doom of the Midterms - Flopping Aces

They also have link to another LEFTIST remembering 911 video. Hope Melhman is going to use all the gifts the LEFT is leaving for him.

[Soylent Red]

Bash then explained that was the strategy...by the DEMS leaders calling for the resignation, it gives individual campaigns the opportunity to look independent by
disagreeing with them.

Larwyn:

"Opportunity to look independent..."? More like "opportunity to play both sides of the issue as the situation suits them."

I'm still looking for my Democrat-proof umbrella. I'm going to need it in November when the sky opens up and Democrats are bouncing off the pavement.

[PeterUK]

What a wonderful endorsement for Rumsfeld,if the Democrats want his head,he must be doing something right.

[Patrick]

"On any list of subjects about which the public and the media are pitiably uninformed"

SERIOUSLY TRUE.

High gas prices should be the death knell of the Democrats. They do everything they can to shut down supply (ANWR, offshore); they advocate environmental regulations that make refining more costly, yet prevent the building of refineries to actually *make* the stuff.

And when the prices goes up, they demagogue the oil companies proposing higher taxes which will certainly make the price go higher! And many have openly lauded higher prices and called for higher gas prices (Gore, Lieberman wanted that).

Of course its not just oil they have stifled, but our #1 fossil fuel alternative, nuclear power, the energy that could resolve our greenhouse gas climate change problems, is opposed by the same liberal Democrats who do the most venting of spleen over 'global warming'.

So the handwringing over oil prices is hypocrisy at best from the Democrat party that has done so little to help the situation, and done so much to make it worse.

[Other Tom]

"The consensus seems to be 2020. That gives us 14 years. Will we use it wisely?"

Use what? The consensus? I'd prefer to use the market. One alternative, of course, would be for Jimmy Carter to invest billions of taxpayer dollars in the extraction of oil from shale.

[Patrick]

"Don't be so sure the Democrats in control can't solve the oil crisis. All they have to do is restrict private transportation to the "Party Elite". That's the way you do it in a socialist workers paradise."

Of course! The North Korea plan!

Hey, I hear they have great Govt-run health care in Cuba too!

[Patrick]

"If the GOP loses control of the House one thing is certain. The Religious Right and social conservatives will say it was because the GOP wasn't pro-life enough that they stayed home."

... and every other conservative group will say the same... and the anti-illegal-immigration forces will be the ones who will be most right about it.

Bush and the Congress took a serious poll drubbing by going for the Democrat amnesty plan on immigration and calling the Senate monstrosity a 'compromise', when it was in fact a sellout. Bad policy, and bad politics. If Bush simply passed a bill that secured our border and did nothing else, and painted the Democrats as the obstructionist that they are on border security, Bush and the GOP would *GAIN* seats in my opinion!

[lurker]

Alternative fuels have yet to be economically and environmentally practical for the general customer base.

But I also support increasing oil refinery, ANWR, R and D for alternative fuels, nuclear plants.

The Meiers nomination, Abu Dhabi port deal, Katrina, gas prices, NSA terrorist surveillance program, illegal immigration, SS reform, tax reform all have taken a toll on the Bush adm.

[PeterUK]

In the early 20th century,just as we were going to be inundated with a deluge of horse manure,what happened,the automobile.
Whenever anyone takes past and present technology and extrapolates it into the future they are bound to be proved wrong by human ingenuity.
All those here of a certain age can reel off dozens of innovations which came about during their lifetime.
Necessity is the mother of invention,pressure on oil supplies is good,we will find something else of develop more efficient uses for fossil fuels.

[PeterUK]

The Democrat's experiment with the bicycle has hardly been propitious

[noah]

Tesla my tush...ya still gotta have beaucoup base electric power to run them. Thats currently mostly coal. All the crap you read about recharging your electric car for twenty five cents is just that...crap!

[vnjagvet]

In that cartoon, Peter, is the answer to the fuel shortage as far as the Dems are concerned. It's that hat.

Clarice has the right idea. Check out the NYT on Labor Day from 1994 to the present and see how well the Democrats are going to do in the upcoming elections for House and Senate.

Tell me in which years they predicted a crushing Dem defeat.

I will wait to allow semicleo to do the necessary research to give us the answer.

And wait, and wait...........

[PeterUK]

vnjagvet,
Michael Moore bought a bicycle,he got on it and it hasn't been seen since.

[lurker]

Gary Maxwell, I just learned from my mom that some special election was held for congressional district 22 and that Shelley Sekula-Gibbs won. Sometimes her facts may be off but have you heard anything?

[SteveMG]

Check out the NYT on Labor Day from 1994 to the present and see how well the Democrats are going to do in the upcoming elections for House and Senate.

Well, Labor Day 1994 (September 5) had a front page story (bottom left) by Johnny Apple discussing the problems the Dems were having holding on to George Mitchell's open Senate seat (Olympia Snowe won the race).

Nut graf (page 7, para 5).
"As the fall campaign begins, with 35 Senate seats on the line, the Democrats face the real possibility of losing a net total of seven seats and thereby relinquishing their majority. And even if they do no do that badly in the balloting on Nov. 8, they seem likely to suffer enough losses to complicate the President's job substantially."

A month later (October 5), the Times has a rather "depressed" front page piece ("In '94, Vote For Women Does Not Play So Well") lamenting the declining number of female candidates.

'Tis fair to claim - admittedly with just a cursory reading - that the Times has a bit more spring in her step this election than back in 1994.

SMG

[clarice]

I tried to search for NYT articles, predicting election outcomes but I refuse to pay to get them and can't find any free ones.

[clarice]

NEWSWEEK:
"Sept. 28 - With less than six weeks until the November mid-term elections, Democratic Congressional candidates have taken the lead among voters, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll.

IF THE NOVEMBER ELECTIONS for U.S. Congress were held today, more registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate (47 percent) than the Republican candidate (40 percent) in their district. Thirteen percent say the would vote for another party's candidate or are undecided. That's a turnabout from the NEWSWEEK poll taken just after President George W. Bush's Sept. 12 speech on Iraq to the United Nations, when 43 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, vs. 41 percent fot he Democrat.

Democrats need to pick up just six seats in the House of Representatives to gain control. In the Senate, Democrats already have a one-seat majority, and Republicans have more seats to defend. "

http://66.218.69.11/search/cache?ei=UTF-8&p=Barrett+Newsweek+online+Sept+28%2C2002&fr=slv1-mdp&u=msnbc.msn.com/id/3068006/&w=barrett+newsweek+online+sept+28+2002&d=e2RSOCQ8NYnQ&icp=1&.intl=us> Sept. media madness. If the elections were held today

[clarice]

That article is Sept 2002.

[clarice]

This article is from CNN in November:
"Going into the 2002 elections, President Bush campaigned hard for voters to elect a Republican Congress and he got his wish. Republicans expanded their majority in the House and regained control of the Senate. While Democrats were reeling from their congressional losses, they did win governor's races in the key presidential battleground states of Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin. Full Story "

[SteveMG]

I tried to search for NYT articles, predicting election outcomes but I refuse to pay to get them and can't find any free ones.

I have access to Proquest. Search engine is shaky, but it's fast and reliable.

Reportedly, the Times will be offering their archives to subscribers by next year.

Still pretty costly; plus all that extra stuff that you'll have to take (op-ed page along with the op op-ed page).

SMG

[clarice]

Well, I have a feeling if we search Newsweek or the Washington Post or the Boston Globe we will see a pattern. The country loves them in Sept (or the voters have gone fishing when these things are written) but not in November.

[MayBee]

In 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, and 2002 they were just ahead of the news cycle.
One of these days they'll be right, and they'll take it as confirmation they were right all along.

[clarice]

Just Barf!
The WaPo has invented yet another mickey mouse demographic--you know, Soccer moms, nascar dad..This one is mortgage mome:
"BURLINGTON, Ky. -- Life is cramped at the Condit household. Dale and Sharon Condit and their two young sons need more room but can't seem to sell their current home -- on the market now for three months.

In a year when politics is being roiled by angry debates over the Iraq war and immigration, it might seem odd to imagine the midterm elections being waged over square footage and closet space. But these are parts of a lifestyle that Sharon Condit, a deputy clerk of court, describes as dogged by a sense of limits: "We have dreams of this future, but we can't get it right now."

This gap in expectations, a source of anxiety for the Condits, is a source of opportunity for former representative Ken Lucas, a Democrat who is trying to win back Kentucky's 4th Congressional District from incumbent Republican Geoff Davis. Attitudes about the economy -- "People are being pushed up against a ceiling," said Lucas. "They feel trapped" -- are part of the reason the Democrat is in a neck-and-neck race in a district President Bush won by 27 percentage points in 2004.

At first glance, the economy's role in this year's midterm elections is a puzzle. Economic growth and unemployment are at levels that in past years would have been a clear political asset for the party in power.

But one layer down in the statistics, the answer is more clear. Flat wages and rising debt nationally have converged to leave millions of middle-class households feeling acutely vulnerable to bumps in their financial planning. The most visible of these are rising energy prices and a softening housing market."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/04/AR2006090401108_pf.html

[SunnyDay]

How do they get from can't sell the house to flat wages and rising debt? Doh.

Nevermind all the good, we'll pick through it and find you some bad.

[MayBee]

OK, I have used my astute demographitizer on the WaPo piece.

*Panera Bread Moms- leaning R
*Diner Owning Grandmas- solid D
*Mortagage Moms looking to buy a bigger house but can't sell their current one- here's your swing voter
*Judges in Diners-need to tell the city council to lower the vehicle fines or put in more parking

What I love about the idea of the mortage mom is that I'm certain the flat wage and rising debt crowd are the ones putting Dick DeVos (R) in striking distance of 2002's Democratic Next Big Thing, Granholm.

[Bob]

Of course the MSM and democratic leadership will claim the utter gutting of the GOP in November... they know all to well that if they don't tell their spoiled little moonbats what the want to hear, there will be temper tantrums in aisles of Wal-Mart. The whole relationship depends on the "adult liberals" being totally intimidated by the little moonbat children. If they dare to deliver anything but upbeat news, the moonies will revolt... and then when Fitzmas never happens, the MSM and Democratic leaders only have to say that the election was stolen... once again pleasing the little ones.

Now with regards to Energy/Oil. In the western states such as Colorado and Wyoming, there is more oil than all the Mideast - now it's in the form of Oil Shale, but it's being extracted right now by Shell Oil using a new technique that's economical - as long as oil stays above $40/bbl. Once the tests are completed in about 2 years (as well as with the proper government approvals) it should be producing oil in vast quantities within 5 to 10 years. (pick up the latest Scientific American mag for more details - online SA only gives snippets)

Oh and noah don't be so negative about electrics... I too was once very sceptical, but today's lithium batteries has made a huge difference in efficiencies for electric vehicles... and the Tesla is a good start for using these newer technologies.

And remember the combustion engine is only 30% efficient, and even though oil has the highest concentration of BTUs for all fuels, newer technologies are slowing becoming more competitive in both regards. for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_vehicle>Electric Motors are 90% efficient.

Have faith in technology to solve this, and not the politicians.

[Specter]

Technology and the free market. Get the government out of the way and let things progress.

noah - I'll turn my computer off when I charge my Tesla (if they are ever made available here). Will that work? LOL

[Bob]

Spector the Tesla is a California creation and is very much available http://www.teslamotors.com/reservations.php>here... the only thing you need is around $75k deposit and the patience and faith to wait until the fall of 2007.

But even if it doesn't materialize, the technology is sound, and somebody will eventually deliver. Toyota and GM are expecting hybrids based on similar technology to be available in 2008 or 09. They are testing prototypes as we blog!

[maryrose]

Republicans will maintain their hold in both Houses of Congress. I'm with Clarice on this. The dems do not have enough momentum to run the table. Some elections will be close but in the end dems will lose once again.

[Gary Maxwell]

Lurker here is the Skinney on Shelley Sekula - Gibbs. She is a Houston councilperson, a Republican and a physician ( Dermatologist actually). She would be a fine candidate as a longtime resident of US district 22 but for the fact that she cant be put on the ballot. She is running a write in campaign. I doubt that enough folks are going to remember how to write Sekula-Gibbs to give her the district. If she were smart she would run ads that say just write "Gibbs" and know that you will be well represented.

She is the Republican party endorsed candidate. Lampson has found a way to win this seat, but its likely only for two years.

[Jane]

Something has to happen for the republicans to hold onto both houses. Don't forget the role of the media, who are breathlessly predicting a sweep, and even the right is partially convinced.

Now a front page news story about the left's attempt to steal the last election, via Joe Wilson might cause a few people to wake up, but it's not going to happen unless the President gets in the fray, and he won't.

Some other things could change some minds, for example a thwarted terrorist attack, or soem grand revelation of lefty wrongdoing, or some other big event, but absent that it will be a toss-up.

The liberal meme that makes me the angriest is the Schumer allegation that we aren't safe and the left will make us safe but won't tell us how. How can the party that opposes the Patriot Act claim that we aren't safe and it is the fault of the right?

[Sue]

Delay should have run an active campaign.

[Wilson's a Liar]

These articles never list actual incumbent Republican congressmen who are likely to lose, or open GOP seats that are likely to be won by Democrats. Generic party polls mean nothing. The MSM are trying to create a bandwagon effect for Democrats but they are all just drinking each other's bathwater at this point.

Ken Lucas is not going to beat Geoff Davis. KY 4 went 65% for Bush in 2004. Davis is a great candidate and Lucas is old and looks it. I had dinner with Davis about 6 weeks ago and he was not worried at all about being reelected. If he had no trouble beating George Clooney's dad 2 years ago with millions of Hollywood dollars coming in for Clooney, he won't have trouble beating Ken Lucas.

I also live in the Philadelphia suburbs, and the Dems have zero chance of winning the House unless they can knock off all three incumbents here. And they won't.

[lurker]

Thanks, Gary! We've met Shelley several times. We like her and her positions on many topics. She is in favor of fair tax and hates earmarks and pork. She is one of the first that made a common sense comment about stem cell research by saying that there are other ways to collect and research stem cells; not from embryos.

I wasn't thrilled about some of the 29 candidates for CD 22 that spoke to us at the state convention but there were two that I liked. Both hailed from the same local areas. Shelley is one of them and the other is either Tim or Tom C.

I am hoping there won't be an intense fight for the write-ins so we will end up with a major push for a single write-in?

Jane, the democrats do not seem to understand the balance between national security and civil liberties. Hopefully, their arguments will reveal more of their positions regarding the NSA terrorist surveillance program as they contest the House and Senate bills this week.

[Bob]

This ought to help the http://www.nypost.com/news/nationalnews/hateful_move_vs__joe_nationalnews_maggie_haberman.htm>Dems!

But as usual they blame conservatives for this:

He added that most of the comments were not made by MoveOn members and suggested it could be an effort by conservatives to "target" the group, and said any effort to tie the rants to MoveOn was "wrong."

Has any liberal ever admitted doing anything wrong in their lives? /s

[Bob]

A http://hotair.com/archives/2006/09/05/hezbollah-in-venezuela-part-i/#comments>HOT ONE over on Malkin's HotAir

[vnjagvet]

WAL has the right idea. Michael Barone one of the few commentators whose analysis you can trust. He gets information on real candidates in real districts. That is the only real way to get an idea of trends in Congressional elections.

In the Senate, it is sometimes a bit easier. For example, Harris in Florida is unlikely to unseat Nelson. But how about Debbie Stabenow? How vulnerable is she? Etc., etc.

That is the kind of real digging you have to do, seat by seat to figure it out.

[JM Hanes]

Clarice:

Dem's were excited about the polls in '02 and '04 too, weren't they? Maybe the Sept. polls should be asking folks how they would vote if the elections were held in November!

[Fenrisulven]

I don't know what republicans are worried about. They merely need to steal another election. No problems.

Says you. The Diebold Hackware 3.1 beta is a mess I just got accepted into the Rove Mind Control Ray [tm] program. I don't have time to steal another election.

[Pofarmer]

They are calling the Talent Senate race in MO "close". Currently Talent shows up 5 in the polls, and we all know about polls. MO is voting more and more conservative, not less. Ammendment against gay marriage passed by nearly 80%. I don't think McCaskill has much chance. Especially if you add in some ethics problems she's had lately.

A conservative Democrat can still win in MO. But they won't win a national election. People see what happens to Dem's in Washington.