Mickey Kaus - Next Week's CW Yesterday

The Thursday NY Times trumpets the Wednesday Kaus theme - the Senate is in play for the Dems.

I had a bunch of betting numbers market-based probabilities at the end of this post.  In short, current markets have the probability of the Reps keeping the House at 58% and 81% for the Senate.  Let's see if the Times story changes anything.

Comments

[clarice]

I heart Kaus but I put my money on whoever Rick says I should and he says they are both wrong.

[SunnyDay]

Virginians are ticked off at what they're doing to Allen. Even the Wells supporters think it's just too nasty.

[patch]

According to the Iowa Electronic Markets:

Congress:

Republican House/Republican Senate-59% probability

House:

Republican hold-51.7% probability

Senate:

Republican hold-66% probability

Note of caution. IEM limits your exposure to $500 so you can't do really active trading. Over at Tradesports and Intrade; invest whatever you have (kids can work their way through college; builds character). Lot more liquidity and activity.

[topsecretk9]

Why does the de-fact Dem media wing need to say it's in PLAY....I thought and was told all these months it was a GIVEN...seriously...why the dumb down, it's not like them.

[Patton]

Cindy Sheehan book PEACE MOM:

""All one has to do is look at the puppet government headed up by President Karzai to understand that the United States needed to take Afghanistan first to provide access to land to build a pipeline for Iraq’s oil, because the only other way through the gulf was via Iran, and we all know that wouldn’t have been possible."""

SO JUST HOW CRAZY IS THIS WOMEN? AND HOW CRAZY ARE THE DEMOCRATS FOR ACTUALLY LISTENING TO HER WACKOUT RANTINGS.

But I guess if you are gong to fight the Iraq war from OKINAWA, you might as well put Iraqi oil through Afghanistan!!

[Tom Maguire]

Senate:

Republican hold-66% probability

I question that - I am seeing Rep "hold" at 65, but another 15% for Reps "gain" seats.

Poor phrasing by them, but 80% combined probability of Reps copntrolling the Senate.

[Jane]

So what is it that suddenly changed to put the senate in play? The Allen race? Sounds like a Rovian plot to get out the base.

[hrtshpdbox]

If EVERYTHING falls their way (Cardin, McCaskill, Tester, Menendez, Sherrod Brown, Whitehouse, Harold Ford, Webb, Lieberman), then the Dems take the Senate. If WAPO discovers that Bush has personally been using a cattle prod on low-level Al Qaeda in the White House basement, it's a lock. Right now you can get 4-to-1 on Tradesports if you believe it, and that line has not budged since this new wishful CW has been bandied about - in fact, it hasn't moved for months. With the advertising dollar advantage that the Republicans have going forward, it looks like a really poor wager. Best sleeper bet on Tradesports - wager a dollar-ninety to get back ten dollars (in other words, slightly better than 5-to-1 odds) on Santorum holding his seat.

[hrtshpdbox]

...uhhh, meant Whitehouse, Harold Ford, Webb, LAMONT...

[Other Tom]

Even if it's Liebermn, they still take it. He has announced that he will caucus with the Dems, so for purposes of Committee chairs and the like, he's just as much a Dem as poor Lamont.

[Pofarmer]

McCaskill will be keepin her day job, unfortunately.

[maryrose]

Lamont is toast -he hasn't moved since August when he peaked. I still want an experienced Senator like Lieberman who actually possesses character and firm religious beliefs. It's all over but the shouting in Connecticut. Ditto in Virginia- Webb should return to being a repub and maybe Virginians will vote for him for state representative.
It must have been hard for Mfume and Obaba to come out for Cardin. Politics makes strange bedfellows.

[Rick Ballard]

Clarice,

Tradesports needs to offer a hedge bet based on the Democrats appeal to their allies in al-Queada to conduct a terror strike in order to fulfill the Dems "you're no safer" rhetoric. I suppose a second hedge bet on "Will American progressives initiate terror operations in support of the Democratic Party" would also be helpful.

If it were a simple proposition concerning the election absent those factors then buying the "Reps hold" contract would be a no brainer.

I believe that al Queada is actually in no position to respond to their allies request, most of them being dead and all, but there are plenty of progressives around and their desperation is becoming palpable.

[Pofarmer]

Tradesports needs to offer a hedge bet based on the Democrats appeal to their allies in al-Queada to conduct a terror strike in order to fulfill the Dems "you're no safer" rhetoric.

Yeah, but that proves that there is a threat. Which the Dems(and a few RINO's) have been trying fairly hard to convince us there's not.

[TexasToast]

Tradesports needs to offer a hedge bet based on the Democrats appeal to their allies in al-Queada to conduct a terror strike in order to fulfill the Dems "you're no safer" rhetoric. I suppose a second hedge bet on "Will American progressives initiate terror operations in support of the Democratic Party" would also be helpful.

IIRC, an Osama video just before the election in 2004 turned the polls in GWB's direction. ISTM that the R's would just love a terrorist attack just befor the election. It appears that Rove's prime strategy is to make the "security" issue front and center. Nothing better for that than an attack that the Adminiostration can respond to forcefully and look tough. Then they can take another crack at a few more civil liberties.

[Rick Ballard]

Pofarmer,

Consistency has never proven an obstacle to the Dems. One can understand Al Queada's rejection of Kerry's appeal to them in August of '04. Senator Waffle had actually done little to help them and they recognized the value of his word. Since then, though, no one can say that the Democrats have not done everything within their power to make life easier for al Queada. If there are enough of them left alive to return the favor then there could be a problem.

Tom's Olberman post adresses the progg's first move. There will be others.

[clarice]

Rick, I'll let you in on a secret if you promise not to tell another living soul. Rove pays the NYT to write stupid predictions of Dem wins every election. He says it's because he loves to see the post-defeat excuses. I think he's not really sadistic. He knows this kind of over-confidence impels them to keep on doing what they're doing and lose.

[Wilson's a liar]

Bob Menendez is officially done today. Can the Dems get away with another Torricelli? Or will it even work this time if they do? I don't think so. Say hello to Senator Tom Kean, Jr. and goodbye to Majority Leader Hillary Clinton.

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15629993.htm

[maryrose]

Wilson's a liar:
Menendez is done -put a fork in him. His top aide has been let go because of wait for it- corruption and a guarantee of political favors. This is a self-inflicted wound because Corzine-sick of being in the minority and probably bored with Washington -jumped ship and appointed the wrong candidate to succeed him. There wereother candidates but Menendez lobbied hard for the post.
My question is -Aren't we too close to the election for a bait and switch?

[clarice]

Sabato has hurt himself and Webb badly in their smearing of Allen.

Menendez is over.
http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/15629993.htm
Will NJ try another Toricelli twist? Can they get away with that twice?
If not the Reps just got a pick up.

http://powerlineblog.com/archives/015397.php

[Gary Maxwell]

TT

You can shove it with that comment. No one I know wants another terror attack. You been confined to any prison cells without your habeus corpus rights lately? Or is it your right to converse overseas with known terrorists that has been crimped that has you in such a terrorist rights snit today?

[Gary Maxwell]

Professor Sabato is a Democrat. Larry Sabato = John Zogby i.e. Another Democrat trying to influence an election. Funny how he did not realize that the only reason folks pay any attention to him at all is the presumption of neutrality that an umpire is granted. Must feel like Wily Coyote - one step off the ledge and suspended in mid air, right about now. For what its worth he went round the bend in the run up to the 2004 election. If you want insightful analysis do go to him. I would suggest Jay Cost, a brilliant analyst who nailed the 2004 election.

[clarice]

I agree completely, Gary--both on when he stopped being a credible analyst and on how damned good Cost is.

[JM Hanes]

Clarice:

"Can they get away with that twice?"

Courts willing, yeah. Though given how closely the effort would follow on the heels of their successful Delay maneuver in Texas, they may pause, if only briefly, to factor cognitive dissonance into the numbers game this time around. Nevertheless, I suspect they are deep into polling a substitution as we speak.

[TexasToast]

Dont get in a snit Gary. Of course no one wants a terror strike.

Rick pops off about the "seditionist copperhead Democrats'" and our AQ "allies" on at least a weekly basis. He was the one who suggested above that a terror strike would be something Democrats would want. I merely pointed out that it would be the Republicans who would benefit - politically, that is.

As to civil liberties, we seem to be slipping down the slope. Bush only went to congress on the secret prisons/men in the iron masks because SCOTUS made him. I guess it all depends on the relative value of order vs freedom. The "tools he needs" bring us a fur bit down the track toward order.

[maryrose]

TT:
You must have something to hide if you are so fearful of wiretapping. I say-wiretap me- you won't find anything interesting except me talking to my family and friends.
I thought New Jersey had a 52 day deadline before they could pull a substitution fast one? Any info on Jersey law?

[boris]

"seditionist copperhead Democrats'" and our AQ "allies" on at least a weekly basis

So you place yourself in the company of leftists allied with AQ. Go ahead and deny any sympathy among "your" fellow travelers.

Would love to chime in with some evidence.

[maryrose]

Jay Cost is the best followed by Rasmussen which correctly predicted 2004. AP/Ipsos is the absolute worst followed by any CBS orNBC poll.Sabato marginalized himself back in 2004 when he incorrectly predicted not a lot of southern Senate pick-ups.
What possible reason could the Jersey dems give for replacing Menendez who in addition has lost his rep seat?

[clarice]

N.J. law apparently precludes substituting candidates less than 51 days before an election.
But NJ law is written in invisible ink it appears.
Here's an NRO article on the law and why Toricelli was likely to lose his bid:

http://72.14.207.104/search?q=cache:fEQOcbMgpfUJ:www.nationalreview.com/kopel/kopel100102.asp+New+Jersey+law+replacing+candidates&hl=en&gl=us&ct=clnk&cd=3>who needs stennkin' laws

[maryrose]

clarice:
Very interesting article and it appears that 30 days is the magic number. So do they use the criminal defense and try to replace him that way or do they have him step down and allow Corzine to annoint another? Either way once again Jersey politics stink to high heaven!

[clarice]

I think the federal law relating to military voting might come into play--and that whatever they do the Ct cannot allow a ballot substitution once they are 35 days away from the election.

[Wilson's a liar]

The corrupt New Jersey Supreme Court tossed that law in 2002 to allow Lautenberg on the ballot. They used the same kind of reasoning the Florida Supreme Court used in the 2000 recount case - the basic right to vote and have a choice of candidate trumps any silly election laws. No doubt they would do it again. But Tom Kean is a lot more popular than Doug Forrester, and the Democrats do not have another name like Frank Lautenberg in the wings. Although one wag has already suggested that Bill Clinton could rent an apartment in Hoboken tomorrow and be named to replace Menendez next week.

The best thing about this is that the headlines for the next several days will be about corrupt Democrats. Every Dem who has campaigned for Menendez or given him money from their PAC should be hammered over this. And this is sure worse than George Allen maybe, possibly, saying a bad word 30 years ago.

[clarice]

The Webb smear has boomeranged in any event:
*******Webb's comments to the Times-Dispatch prompted Allen campaign officials to direct a reporter to Dan Cragg, a former acquaintance of Webb's, who said Webb used the word while describing his own behavior during his freshman year at the University of Southern California in the early 1960s. Webb later transferred to the U.S. Naval Academy.
Cragg, 67, who lives in Fairfax County, said on Wednesday that Webb described taking drives through the black neighborhood of Watts, where he and members of his ROTC unit used racial epithets and pointed fake guns at blacks to scare them.

"They would hop into their cars, and would go down to Watts with these buddies of his," Cragg said Webb told him. "They would take the rifles down there. They would call then [epithets], point the rifles at them, pull the triggers and then drive off laughing. One night, some guys caught them and beat . . . them. And that was the end of that."*********

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/27/AR2006092702062.html?nav=rss_politics

[SunnyDay]

Yep, and they got some ladies who have bad things to say about Webb when he was at the naval Academy. Webb ddn't have a chance anyway. Virginians like Allen. He did a good job, and he's a nice guy. Everyone knows it. They just cannot make him look bad he's been around too long, and done everything right - as evidenced this is the worst thing they could find about him.

I feel for his Mom - how could they hound her over something she wanted to keep secret - that's evil.

BTW - NYT is having a hissy fit.

the hissy fit

[clarice]

Is that another parody edition?

[Terrye]

Can't you just see Texas Toast getting a job with NSA and telling his superiors that he overheard terrorists were planning an attack that will kill thousands, but not to worry he hung up as soon as he realized he did not have a warrant.

Back in the good old days when FDR was around he tapped every long distance phone call into and out of the US during WW2 without a warrant and as far as that is concerned he tapped his own office. And somehow no one really gave a damn. Amazing what you can get away with if you have a big fat D behind your name.

[patch]

Tom,

Those are two seperate IEM contracts:

Republican hold means they have fifty or over.

Republican gain means they will have 56 or more after the election.

You can't combine the probabilities.

Should be fun this election.

Do it like a Democrat: Vote early and Vote often.

[free motorola ringtone]

motorola ringtone|free motorola ringtone|download free motorola ringtone|download ringtone motorola|free ringtone for motorola phone|free motorola mp3 ringtone|free motorola tracfone ringtone|motorola razr ringtone|motorola q ringtone|c139 motorola ringtone|free ringtone for motorola v3 razr|free ringtone for motorola v60i|e815 motorola ringtone|motorola mp3 ringtone|motorola t720 polyphonic ringtone|l6 motorola ringtone|motorola polyphonic ringtone|e motorola ringtone|ringtone for motorola phone|motorola tracfone ringtone|download motorola ringtone t720|c139 free motorola ringtone|motorola ringtone composer| free ringtone for motorola cell phone|free motorola razr ringtone|motorola v60i ringtone|motorola ringtone v170|motorola v60 ringtone|ringtone for motorola cell phone|nextel motorola i730 free ringtone|free motorola real ringtone|motorola v3 ringtone|motorola razr v3 ringtone|free motorola v3 ringtone|free ringtone for motorola v170|motorola ringtone software|motorola c115 ringtone|motorola ringtone converter|ringtone gratis motorola c115|motorola t720 ringtone|free motorola v220 ringtone|motorola v265 ringtone|motorola ringtone tracfone v170|free motorola polyphonic ringtone|free ringtone for motorola razor|free motorola composer ringtone|free motorola i730 ringtone|motorola v220 ringtone|motorola keypress ringtone|motorola v262 ringtone|free motorola ringtone tracfone v170|free ringtone for motorola v265|ringtone motorola v171|free motorola v60i tracfone ringtone|free motorola v60 ringtone|motorola razor ringtone|motorola ringtone v276|free motorola v180 ringtone|motorola ringtone v266|free motorola keypress ringtone|free verizon motorola v265 ringtone|motorola v551 ringtone|free ringtone motorola v262|motorola i730 nextel ringtone|free ringtone for motorola cellular phone|motorola i730 ringtone|tracfone motorola v60i ringtone|free alltel motorola ringtone|motorola ringtone maker

[Rick Ballard]

Patch,

I think it's "Vote like a Democrat - early and often, dead or alive."

[Jane]

How is it that free motorola ringtone can post unimpeded and I have to verify my very existence 20 times a day? huh? huh? HUH?

[clarice]

Why does ringtone think we will be impressed enough by this repeated intrusion to avail ourselves of their service?

[AndrewP]

They don't have to do a substitution to elect a Democrat in NJ. They just need to GOTV with that infamous Democratic Party Machine, which is alive and well in NJ. I mean they actually have Ward Captains with armies of Union volunteers and such who get these things done. They can make up 2,5, even 10 points by GOTV. RCP has Menendez only behind by 2, within MOE.