Osama Died Of Typhoid Fever In August?

The AP adds this to the rumor mill - the French intelligence report is authentic but the content has not been verified:

The French defense ministry on Saturday called for an internal investigation of the leak of an intelligence document that raises the possibility that Osama bin Laden may have died of typhoid in Pakistan a month ago but said the report of the death remained unverified.

...The daily newspaper for the Lorraine region in eastern France printed what it described as a confidential document from the French foreign intelligence service DGSE citing an uncorroborated report from Saudi secret services that the leader of the al-Qaida terror network had died.

The contents of the document, dated Sept. 21, or Thursday, were not confirmed by French or other intelligence sources. However, the DGSE transmitted the note to President Jacques Chirac and other officials, the newspaper said.

Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie “has demanded an investigation be carried out of this leak,” a ministry statement said, adding that transmission of the confidential document could risk punishment.

Document exists but cannot be confirmed
Defense Ministry spokesman Jean-Francois Bureau, clarifying the statement, said that the DGSE document exists but that its contents — that bin Laden is allegedly dead — cannot be confirmed.

The DGSE, or Direction Generale des Services Exterieurs, indicated that its information came from a single source.

“According to a reliable source, Saudi security services are now convinced that Osama bin Laden is dead,” said the intelligence report.

The Ace of Spades has good coverage, including an excellent "I Question The Timing" analysis.  Dems who have been fearing an "October Surprise" can be excused a bit of non-surprise now.

And yes, we went through a similar exercise in 2004 - TNR worried about a "July Surprise" where Bush would disrupt Kerry's convention by announcing the capture of Osama or another High Value Target.  It's hard to believe that the NY Times took the notion seriously enough to prepare a front page, just in case.

POINT TO PONDER:  The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist.  Osama being considered to be dead works well for Bush, Musharaff, and Osama.

MORE:  TIME magazine has a Saudi source with a similar story:

                                Fugitive al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, believed to be on the run in rugged terrain in the Afghan-Pakistani border region since the September 11 attacks five years ago, has become seriously ill and may have already died, a Saudi source tells TIME, echoing earlier reports in the French media.

The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that Saudi officials have received multiple credible reports over the last several weeks that Bin Laden has been suffering from a water-borne illness. The source believes that there is a "high probability" that Bin Laden has already died from the disease, but stressed that Saudi officials have thus far received no concrete evidence of Bin Laden's death.

"This is not a rumor," says the source. "He is very ill. He got a water-related sickness and it could be terminal. There are a lot of serious facts about things that have actually happened. There is a lot to it. But we don't have any concrete information to say that he is dead."

And here is some info about typhoid.  let's clip this:

Mexico and South America are the most common areas for U.S.       citizens to contract typhoid fever. India, Pakistan and Egypt are also       known high risk areas for developing this disease.

Apparently typhoid is common enough in Pakistam that drug-resistant starins have developed - here are papers from 1996 and 2002.

Comments

[Semanticleo]

Since you referenced the promised Rovian 'October Surprise' I thought it would be appropriate for your team to mitigate the
provocative and dangerous rumblings of a blockade in the Gulf. The only surprise will be if this typical shallow and ham-handed
move doesn't lead to the loss of a majority
of US troops in Iraq. Any defense of this
idiocy will be regarded as 'hating the troops'.

[lurker]

Well, we'll see. Need to see DNA proof before we'll see it.

The forever negative ali-cleown, nah, it won't happen. Looking back into the 19th century history, which you intentionally chose to ignore, anything like a provacative and dangerous rumblings of a blockade in the Gulf can happen but only from the Islamofascists.

Other than that, whatever we are doing won't lead to the loss of a majority of US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Besides, it'll be a good "October surprise" or "so what?"

[lurker]

Osama bin Laden Dead? by Reihl World with more details.

And Ace of Spades - unconfirmed.

Waiting for confirmation.

[Mike G]

If true-- and I doubt we'll ever know, I also doubt this is the last time we'll hear this sort of report-- it is at least fitting that having achieved the primitive world for himself that he hoped to bring to all of us, he died of one of its diseases, one that is easily prevented and/or cured thanks to the inventions of the decadent modern world-- and, often as not, the inventions of Jewish doctors.

[lurker]

AJStrata raised the possibility of a connection with 100 Talibans attending a funeral (a public funeral, which could be held at a later time).

Maybe. Maybe not.

Still need confirmation!

[Other Tom]

I remember the provocative and dangerous rumblings about George H. W. Bush being strapped into a Mach 2 fighter and flown over to cut a deal ensuring that the embassy hostages wouldn't be released until after Reagan won the election.

More recently, there have been provocative and dangerous rumblings about the 22 indictments that Fitzgerald was going to announce last year. And still more recently, the provocative and dangerous rumblings about Rove being secretly indicted on May 13, with the indictment remaining under seal while he spills his guts about Cheney.

Where do these loons come up with this stuff? (Tradesports GOP house majority now at 58.5--I suspect some of the despairing moonbats are bidding it up.)

[jerry]

I've been sitting here trying to decide if I'd rather know that UBL is dead or learn what Fitzgerald has learned in his investigation... I think the Fitzgerald news would be much more interesting.

[Sue]

How appropriate, if true. The great warrior dying of something so unwarriorly as typhoid. Does he still get his 72 virgins?

[lurker]

Sue, and the dems and leftwingers will blame it all on Bush!

Tehehehe!!

Perhaps that was well-planned? To force OBL and Zawahiri into 7th century living conditions and leave them alone to die on their own?

I read this morning that Waziristan is turning into a AQ training ground. Well, we forced AQ into fewer places so we just knock one place down one at a time.

[Cecil Turner]

The only surprise will be if this typical shallow and ham-handed move doesn't lead to the loss of a majority of US troops in Iraq.

From what? An enteric epidemic?

[Syl]

Our intelligence guys say there hasn't been any chatter, or any posting on the 'net and these guys like to stay ahead of the news cycle.

Osama already had sworn his bodyguards to kill him if he was in danger of capture. You'd think he would also have a plan for how to deal with his death. Especially since I'm sure previous rumors had gotten back to him.

It's possible he swore them all to secrecy so the world wouldn't get the satisfaction of knowing but the Saudis had a guy keeping an eye on him. Or whatever.

Or he's in a cave laughing.

One of my quiet fears has been that we'd all think Osama was dead, and he'd show up in D.C. at the Mall with a nuke and go out as a glorious mushroom martyr.

Well, we'll see. Can't prove a negative and if we never get access to a body, we'll just have to wait for the next tape.

[Pofarmer]

I think the Fitzgerald news would be much more interesting.

I don't think you can handle that much dissapointment at once.

[lurker]

Profarmer, I was thinking that since Fitz ended up with nothing in his investigation, the Fitz news would be boring.

[Cecil Turner]

Or he's in a cave laughing.

Entirely too possible. I remember in 1986 when the North Koreans announced Kim Il Sung's death over loud speakers in the DMZ, apparently to discredit the ROK (who eventually confirmed his death), and later trotted him out for a public appearance. I'd be real leery of a repeat, especially if we're basing this on a third- or fourth-hand account in a regional French newspaper.

[Syl]

It's kinda sad. There's a certain class of moonbats (and not even all moonbats) who cannot allow themselves to be happy at the possibility that Osama is really really dead.

I mean, there goes their 'Where's Osama?' talking point.

[Rick Ballard]

If he is dead I wonder who will provide future talking points for the Dem leadership? Come to think of it, his demise may explain the Dems inability to come up with a coherent strategy concerning the up coming election. That's a big turban for the Dems to fill.

[Syl]

I'd be real leery of a repeat, especially if we're basing this on a third- or fourth-hand account in a regional French newspaper.

Yeah. There was a photocopy of the document with the article I think. The French aren't saying it's fake.

But the document doesn't say the info came directly from Saudi secret service, but from a usually reliable (need exact description) source who said the Saudi's are convinced he died, though they haven't confirmed it.

We haven't a clue where the Saudi secret service got ITs info.

[cathyf]

It's been suggested that this is bait in order to cause an OsamaMedia production team to make a tape in time for the elections and seal republican control of congress.

I think that all the tapes we've seen over the last 2-3 years are fakes. That Kerry commercial from 2 years ago? That was some old video dubbed over with an Osama sound-alike with a new message. With a full beard, as long as you use video where the camera is far enough away you can't tell if his lips are moving along with the words or not.

The best evidence is the utterly fatuous and incoherent content of the "Osama" messages over the last few years. The guy was a brilliant theologian with a well-crafted message centered around muslim theology. So he suddenly turns into a mumbling robot parotting disjoint incoherent far-left talking points?

Maybe the kidney failure has caused brain damage. Being on the run has probably caused him to not get his dialysis on time on multiple occasions.

[Syl]

Sources and methods.

The French are peeved and said they're going to investigate the leak.

Now we know the French have infiltrated the Saudi Secret Service.

Bet the Saudi's are pissed off.

That's the problem with leaks. They tend to piss off your allies, not your enemies.

[002 - VRWC]

I can unofficially tell you all, speaking on a condition of anonymity because I have not been officially told that I can realeas anything to the blogosphere due to sensitive nature of the details, that even if the reports of OBL death are fake but accurate, nobody cares.

Also off the record, I can't officially confirm that I recently made a trip to the mountainous region along the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. I'm not allowed to tell you that I was sent by 001, blowgun and dart in my backpack, to infect a certain person responsible for attacks on the US. And finally I can't tell you how it was timed specifically to come out just before the election.

Remember - you never saw or heard from me. I'm like the wind......

[Sue]

I'm like the wind......

I wonder, are you also like the sea?

[SteveMG]

Maybe the kidney failure has caused brain damage. Being on the run has probably caused him to not get his dialysis on time on multiple occasions.

According to Lawrence Wright (The Looming Tower, a brilliant work), OBL doesn't (didn't?) suffer from kidney failure. (Link)

If I had my druthers, I'd be more satisfied, right now, knowing that Zawahiri was captured/killed/dead than OBL.

And he's not (wasn't?) 6'5 or 6'4. He's about 6'0/6'1.

SMG

[Pofarmer]

Profarmer, I was thinking that since Fitz ended up with nothing in his investigation, the Fitz news would be boring.

That's kinda what I mean. I envision opening up the manilla envelope and finding just pages and pages of doodles.;)

[Bob]

Gotta love that Rove... what a prankster!

I betcha Bill Clinton never "tried" to contaminate OBL's drinking water with typhoid!...

[Jane]

Well the best evidence that OBL is dead or dying is that he didn't come out with a video to celebrate the 5th anniversary of 911. His last one was with that American kid looking for volunteers as I recall.

You know the dems base this entire GWOT on OBL - as if getting him will end it. What will they say when it makes no difference at all?

Gee let me answer my own question: If we had had gotten OBL earlier, the war on terror would have been won. Because we didn't it grew. Blah blah blah.

[Cecil Turner]

Remember - you never saw or heard from me. I'm like the wind......

Heh, my hero:

"You think you're real smart. But you're not smart; you're dumb. Very dumb. But you've met your match in me."

[002 - VRWC]

Dang it CT - you weren't supposed to know...

[Neo]

Osama being considered to be dead works well for Bush, Musharaff, and Osama.

It doesn't take much of an imagination to believe that any scenario where Osama, alive or dead, not in US hands is good for Bush, Musharaff, and Usama.

Additionally, with Usama dead, Democrats score a net plus as Ms. Pelosi won't be out there asking "why Osama is still on the loose ?".

[clarice]

cathyf, I'm with you. Those tapes are fakes. Now, I'm not saying Rove did them...BUT..(LOL)

[clarice]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1538569,00.html?cnn=yes

"The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, says that Saudi officials have received multiple credible reports over the last several weeks that Bin Laden has been suffering from a water-borne illness. The source believes that there is a "high probability" that Bin Laden has already died from the disease, but stressed that Saudi officials have thus far received no concrete evidence of Bin Laden's death.

"This is not a rumor," says the source. "He is very ill. He got a water-related sickness and it could be terminal. There are a lot of serious facts about things that have actually happened. There is a lot to it. But we don't have any concrete information to say that he is dead."

[verner]

Hey, check out the NRO corner. Byron York is a lurker.

[Bob]

Just read somewhere... God knows if I could remember, but that last weeks funeral with the 190 Taliban may have been for OBL.

Add to that Musharraf's joke yesterday about OBL, and I think this may all be true!

[clarice]

Jane, you can't make up what their response would be, you're too samrt.

Remember the Beers-Kerry line was that instead of going into Iraq we should have put more troops into Afghanistan to root him out.
Of course, he was by that time in Pakistan and putting our troops in Afghanistan and Waziristan (had we been able to do that) would have instantly destroyed our considerable technological advantage. Any doofus with a 100 year old blunderbus has an equal chance of picking off an American soldier in a god forsaken Wadi in which there is no way to hide.

[Patton]

Remember when the press claimed they'd never trust those intelligence guys again?

[Patton]

"""You can get typhoid fever if you eat food or drink beverages that have been handled by a person who is shedding S. Typhi or if sewage contaminated with S. Typhi bacteria gets into the water you use for drinking or washing food. Therefore, typhoid fever is more common in areas of the world where handwashing is less frequent and water is likely to be contaminated with sewage. """

To be fair, it was Rove that told Osama to "Eat SH-T and DIE!. So, Rove got him!

[jerrry]

Maybe it's true and the Frenchies are trying to preempt Karl's October Surprise, there's something people could agree with.

[Jane]

Well Fox News is entertaining the idea albeit with skepticism. I'm a fan of the idea of OBL going out with a whimper not a bang. All and all he's just a wus with a cave full of money and a heart full of hate.

[boris]

October Surprise

This term has always been laced with projection. How many remember that Carter was planning to get the Iranian hostages released in October but Reagan behested GHW (alleged by moobats of the era) to fly in and thwart Jimmah's scheme.

IOW the evil Republican's October Suprise was actually preventing Carter's October Suprise. lol

[Sue]

Wow, via http://ace.mu.nu/>Ace the DUers are even crazier than I thought they were.

[MogolHorde(or is that legion?)!!!!]

The Devil. Lucifer, Satan.

The devil seems a waste of time unless one considers the dreaming and seeing(with eyes closed and hearing the past and future). Lucifer seems to be the answer here. So, like Jesus, we all relive our lives and go to another existence; which is the same as the previous existence. Satan? He seems to be avoding all this and that may be why we are not humans anymore, so where is he so we can set him straight?

Bin Laden, like most, probably will just cease to exist. It's normal now to avoid any further type of damning(existence), even though some would rather continue to exist in hell(another existence)than cease to exist-Lucifer worshippers. Bin Laden has probably happily ceased knowing he did the 'right thing' considering where he was or may be again, although I doubt it. Not that he was very wealthy and was treated very badly, got mad, got even, and has financed these nuts for generations.

Typhoid fever?

Patton: Global ban on US Spinach from human feces contamination................

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I've heard several say that the funeral where we didn't bomb the Taliban leaders is bad timing for it to have be bin Laden, others not so sure. My first thought was, "oh that explains it!" thinking that we didn't want to drop a bomb in the middle of all that and risk turning the dead person's body into dust. But, if the timing is off, then that theory sort of goes out the window.

Somewhere last week in my blogosphere surfing I read a report of the deterioration of the quality of the speeches attributed to bin Laden in the last few we've received. They speculated that bin Laden had died awhile back and someone else has been writing the scripts.

I do agree that not to have heard a word from him on the 5 year anniversary is probably one of the biggest signs he is no longer alive or too sick to care.

[Sue]

Our intelligence is telling everyone to slow down, take a deep breath. I think it is another one of those rumors of his death have been greatly exaggerated moments.

[patch]

He's not dead until we have a body; or it's the year 2101 and we haven't found the body.

[patch]

He's not dead until we have a body; or it's the year 2101 and we haven't found the body.

[Thomas Morrissey]

Grand Unified Moonbat Theory.

Having spent a great deal of time with Osama, Dick Cheney knew of his fondness for spinach.

Knowing as well that if ever captured, Osama would reveal he was in fact on W's Crawford Ranch,sharecropping,before and after 911,and Nancy Pelosi and Valerie Plame, wearing catsuits,had infiltrated Pakistan and were close to capturing him.

To prevent his capture, or running as a write in Democrat candidiate in a close House election, the NeoCons poisoned the world spinach supply, killing him.

It's simple.

[Semanticleo]

The Tonkin Incident was a minor prophet to the Granddaddy of all ClusterF***s; the October blockade of Iran.

The current witches brew is
brought to you by the producers of "Iraq;
1st course in the feast of vultures". They
seek to protect us from mad bombers by placing a stick of TNT up our collective asses. But you go ahead and keep cheering them on 'cause they're 'doin somthin'.
Just make sure your asses aren't in Iraq when the hammer descends. All will be right with the world, 'cause we showed them islamofascists what we're made of.

With friends like these, who needs terrorists?

[Bob]

So septic leo, why did Bill Clinton even "try", if there was nothing to worry about.

What was the 1993 bombing of the WTC... looked like a stick up our asses to me. And what did your philanderer in chief do... nothing!

The Khobar Towers... another stick up da butt and nothing.

2 North African Embassies... nothing

USS Cole... yup nothing.

Thank God he wasn't president for 12 years!

Go drown yourself in you cut and paste prose.

[Nies]

Osama would skip the five year thing. It's old news and he knew about it long before Plame. I think he would have been nice about it; but it was Plame........

[Thomas Morrissey]

Bob,

What you call perfidy is actual confirmation of the Pimp's extreme courage.

Khobar towers, he bravely ignore it,

The Embasssy Bombings,bravely ignored,

1997 declaration of War on us by A.Q, bravely ignored,

The USS Cole, bravely ignored once again.

You cowardly Neo-Cons, trying to frighten people with terrorism, why can't you find the courage to ignore those who want to kill us?

[boris]

Cleo's a sad sad clown today. Cry baby cry, your pouty tantrums and delusional despair are a joy to behold.

[Sue]

I question the timing. We hear Whitney has left Bobby and now Usama is faking his death? Yeah...right...

[Cecil Turner]

Just make sure your asses aren't in Iraq when the hammer descends.

Do you really think the main danger is that Iran might attack Iraq? If you're going into the doomsaying business, at least do it intelligently. Krauthammer has a clue. Whoever you're taking your talking points from does not.

[Patton]

To be fair to Bill Clinton, once he discovered Saddam Hussein tried to kill our former President in an act of war, he did attack the Iraqi intelligence headquesters, BUTT made sire the building was empty so no actual people would be hurt.

This was a clear message to our enemies, you kill us, and we will destroy an empty building in your country!

[Patton]

If Osama were dead, I am sure Freaknik will blame Bush.

Its pretty clear Bush forced Osama to live in terrible living conditions, under fear of death or torture at a moments notice, its pretty clear Bush caused him to die.

osama had to live in terrible condition, was forced to drink tainted water, couldn't seek medical care..man Bush was really mean.

[Semanticleo]

"Do you really think the main danger is that Iran might attack Iraq?"

The proximity of our forces and the provocative nature of a naval blockade is a recipe for FUBARs ad infinitum. It stands to reason you would concur with the bean-counter Krauthammer, as his armageddon would be economic in nature, as if the interruption of global markets eclipsed the demand for bodybags worldwide. Apparently,
finite economic downturns are the worst case scenario for some. Not for me.

[verner]

Patton: BUTT made sire the building was empty so no actual people would be hurt.

Except for the cleaning man. Then he made that wretched speech that he plagerized from that terrible movie with Annette Benning.

My disgust for Bill Clinton knows no bounds. He's mad, cause he knows that he's a liar, and even with Sandy Berger trying to steal the evidence from the National Archives, he's done got caught--just like with Monica. He is a total moral and physical coward, except when it comes to raping women half his size.

As for Bin Laden. His horrible death from Typhoid, which likely included perforated intestines, delerium, and a whole host of nasty symptoms was Allah's will--a fitting end for a murder and reprobate who twisted the word of the prophet. Only about 4% of those infected die from the illness.

I'm so glad that typhoid got him instead of a daisy cutter--much more suffering that way. And expiring from a shit generated illness--associated with the unclean-- isn't anything near a "martyr's" death. Guess he won't get those 72 virgins.

[002 - VRWC]

Tellin you that me and my trusty blowgun took care of it.....

[Other Tom]

"...the provocative nature of a naval blockade..."

Provocative? Hell, Cleo, a blockade is an act of war--WAR, I tell you, WAR! By God, we're going to go to WAR against these accursed towelheads! We start with a naval blockade, see (the Navy is "already deploying"), then if they utter a word of protest, we rain all hell on them for the skies. And just in time for the elections, too! I tell ya, Cleo, Rove has this thing nailed. Just you watch. And stock your air raid shelter.

[Jane]

You know Clinton is involved in, by all accounts, this quite successful, global initiative, and he had as a ground rule on this interview (his first on Fox) that 50% of the time had to be spent on the global initiative and it could only be 15 minutes long. Wallace said that he tried several times to get Clinton off his rant and back to the GI - to keep his end of the bargain and Clinton would have none of it, ranting for 23 minutes.

So something has rattled Bill Clinton to the very core. He over-reacted to the Path to 911 - and he is going nuts now. What is he hiding?

[Cecil Turner]

The proximity of our forces and the provocative nature of a naval blockade is a recipe for FUBARs ad infinitum.

The problem (for the Iranian side) is that we have more combat power there than they can hope to amass, and the ability to reinforce rapidly. (And on the off chance we decide to blockade, we'll know about it in advance . . . so we can get a jump on the whole "reinforce" thing.) We'd have to send in significantly more troops to attack, but defending is much easier (and would be extremely bloody, in a very one-sided fashion). Again, Krauthammer's got a lot better handle on what's militarily feasible for them (temporarily interdicting the Straits of Hormuz through mining and SS missiles, and inciting unrest in Iraq). And your suggestions otherwise are causing a lot of head-shaking, as well as reinforcing the stereotype of militarily clueless lefties.

[tamara]

The timing of the leak: Ramadan.

These rumours brought to mind the purported jimming-rigging of Arafat's death. It was speculated it would occur on Laylat al-Qadr, the night of the 26th or 27th day of Ramadan when the Koran was first revealed.

"Laylat al-Qadr was a good night to die on, since the Doors of Heaven open for all departed souls, according to Islamic tradition."

Clearly OBL, if dead, did not die on the "Night of Destiny". Perhaps he has been dead for a month or two and the Saudis timed the release of the information to coincide with a month of prayer and fasting.

[Rick Ballard]

Other Tom,

Wait until she finds out about the Orphanage Targeting Center...

[hrtshpdbox]

A "dozen Government officials and outside experts" queue up to declare that http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/24/world/middleeast/24terror.html?ei=5065&en=f45c4cfbace58a03&ex=1159675200&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print>the GWOT has created even more terrorists.. Ah, but they're referencing a classified report, and it's just another leak (and to think - according to the NYT, some of the leakers are Bush supporters!). I've got my fingers crossed that, after November 7, GWB adapts something of a scorched earth policy when it comes to the intelligence agencies.

[hrtshpdbox]

Rats, thought I knew how to imbed the url. It's:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/24/world/middleeast/24terror.html?ei=5065&en=f45c4cfbace58a03&ex=1159675200&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print

[Sue]

What is he hiding?

Don't know, but may I suggest looking in Sany Burglar's pants for it?

[Semanticleo]

". so we can get a jump on the whole "reinforce" thing.)"

Geez, Cecil. It is so clear now.
A 'slam dunk" for sure.

[DRF]

Clinton castigates Bush per OBL.
Recrimination is the first sign of a weak mind.

Bush supporters in intelligence leaking to the NY Times. The Times playing me for
the fool? Help me Washington insiders the Times must be talking to someone other
than Bush voters.

[Soylent Red]

Indians aren't buying the OBL report.

[002 - VRWC]

Don't worry....the boss has tasked the organization to work on the CIA next.....

I'm like the wind.....

[002 - VRWC]

And while I can't confirm this either, how do you like the results of the "mind confusion bug" that we planted at KOS and with many left-wing posters....and Dem leaders. Dean was first, then Teddy, the Nancy P., the semanticleo.....fun huh?

[Cecil Turner]

Geez, Cecil. It is so clear now.

Obviously it ain't. But hopefully you can recognize that the aggressor has control of the timing, and that prudence would demand beefing up appropriate forces in the region prior to kicking off. So if we were, in fact, going to blockade, the first indicators would be moving things like minesweepers and beefing up security forces in Iraq (most other force movements, like generic naval units, wouldn't be immediately apparent). So far I've seen no such indication, and rather doubt any such operation is imminent. But if it were, and the Iranians decided to go for the gusto, the schwerpunkt (cool German way of saying "focal point"--de rigeur for this sort of discussion) would be the Straits of Hormuz.

For extra clarity, here's a handy reference to some other US military options available. Note the old defense of the Arabian Peninsula war plan (which assumed a Soviet invasion through Iran without any US forces predeployed). Also note the updated plan, and that it's predominantly offensive, and don't discuss defending against an Iranian invasion. There's a reason for that.

[Daddy]

Obviously we need to immediately assign the nation's top document verification experts to examining this French intelligence report. Joe Wilson, Mary Mapes, Dan Rather, where the heck are you guys when we need you?

[Bob]

Sorry 002, but Ted Kennedy was born with the "mind confusion bug"... Furthermore, they lied to us, since it was Ted who got the lobotomy in a failed attempt to rid him of the scourge. Apparently they removed the wrong half, since after the operation, he still had trouble driving his 67 Oldsmobile!

Boy so early on a Sunday morning and my love for Ted is endless!

[Beto Ochoa]

John Kerry: You know, we've been through a lot together.
Magic Hat:

John Kerry:This Osama dead stuff though. What do you think?
Magic Hat:

John Kerry: I, for one, question the timing.
Magic Hat:

John Kerry: I mean, with the gasoline prices plummeting and all.
Magic Hat:

John Kerry: Aren't you going to say anything?
Magic Hat:

John Kerry: Man, and I thought we had some history!
Magic Hat: I've been working for Rove since day one doofus.

[Syl]

re Osama

Just a couple tidbits of analysis I've picked up but haven't seen here.

'In From the Cold' notes that he would have expected Osama (and Zawahiri, etc.) to have gotten typhoid shots. Typhoid is common where they are, and Zawahiri is a doctor.

But, and I think this is very interesting, Walid Phares watches al Jazeera wo we don't have to. :)

He says al Jazeera who obviously have connections since they are handed all the tapes, is covering it just like everybody else!

In other words, al Qaeda isn't telling them it isn't true, nor that it is.

Walid thinks al Qaeda hasn't decided how to handled the PR. Even if bin laden is still alive, he may be very ill, and they're just keeping mum.

[Syl]

Beto

LOLOL!

[Patton]

I just watched Bill Clinton on Fox News Sunday...and I know you won't belive me, but I swear I could smell sulfur the longer it went on.....

[Patton]

Gee, I worked for the Air Force intelligence all through the Clinton years, and the only new initiatives I remember coming down from the Clinton adminstration was two:

We had to be briefed on Don't ask Don't tell and we had to have briefings on tolerance and diversity.

Once Clinton left office, our first new briefing from personnel was on Sexual Harrassment.

[Other Tom]

Good morning, friends. Tradesports GOP house majority hits 58 this morning.

[clarice]

Today the NYT and WaPo both leak conclusions of the April NIE. (1) The agency fools are still leaking to hurt the Administration(2) Am I the only one seeing the irony---weren't these papers tsk tsking how bad it was that Cheney DECLASSIFIED portions of it to answer Tenet and that Libby dared tell those portions to reporters.

Honestly--Do they think we have all been lobotomized?

[clarice]

Compare the tone of this NYT article when it was revealed that Cheney declassified portions of the NIE so that Libby could answer Wilson's charges.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/06/washington/06cnd-leak.html?ex=1301976000&en=2b041507356c3290&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss>NIE

[Sue]

Don't miss the irony of how this NIE is being portrayed as the definitive word, the gospel, the document that everyone relies on. The same type of document they have spent the last 3 years tearing apart as being wrong, wrong, wrong.

[clarice]

The front page Wa Po article does seem to imply that, Sue, but if you read on to later graphs, you get:
"An NIE drawn up in the fall of 2002 concluded that Iraq had "continued its weapons of mass destruction [WMD] programs," possessed stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons and "probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade." All of those judgments, which provided the political and national security underpinnings for the Iraq invasion, turned out to be false.

As part of the intelligence reforms enacted in 2004, control of the NIC was transferred from the CIA director to Negroponte's newly created office, with a mandate to cast a wider net for information throughout the 16-agency intelligence community and among nongovernmental experts."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/23/AR2006092301130_2.html

[Florence Schmieg]

Posted this below but will again here. This report if true would reinforce Bush's claim that Iraq IS the central place of the war on terror not a separate thing. The Democrats cannot have it both ways. The NYTimes helps the administration make that argument now.

[Sue]

I suppose that is why they are stressing that the WH did not participate in the preparation of this NIE report.

[Patton]

Clinton said on Fox news that Richard Clark was the greatest anti-terrorist guy in the world basically.

Of course Wallace didn't follow up with:

"Well, President Clinton, did you believe Richard Clark when he wrote a memo stating if we invade Afghanistan going after Osama Bin Laden he would BOGIE TO BAGHDAD??

In February 1999, for example, the CIA proposed U-2 aerial-surveillance missions over Afghanistan. The report says that Richard Clarke, then the White House counterterrorism chief, worried that the mission might spook bin Laden into leaving Afghanistan for somewhere where it might be even more difficult for American forces to reach him:

Clarke was nervous about such a mission because he continued to fear that Bin Ladin might leave for someplace less accessible. He wrote Deputy National Security Advisor Donald Kerrick that one reliable source reported Bin Ladin's having met with Iraqi officials, who "may have offered him asylum." Other intelligence sources said that some Taliban leaders, though not Mullah Omar, had urged Bin Ladin to go to Iraq. If Bin Ladin actually moved to Iraq, wrote Clarke, his network would be at Saddam Hussein's service, and it would be "virtually impossible" to find him. Better to get Bin Ladin in Afghanistan, Clarke declared.
National-security adviser Sandy Berger suggested that the U.S. send just one U-2 flight, but the report says Clarke worried that even then, Pakistan's intelligence service would warn bin Laden that the U.S. was preparing for a bombing campaign. "Armed with that knowledge, old wily Usama will likely boogie to Baghdad," Clarke wrote in a February 11, 1999 e-mail to Berger. The report says that another National Security Council staffer also warned that "Saddam Hussein wanted bin Laden in Baghdad."

The details found in the report — which in footnotes are attributed to a variety of secret U.S government intelligence documents — suggest a new way of thinking about Iraq and al Qaeda. Bin Laden had been forced out of Sudan and into Afghanistan. When it appeared he might have trouble with the Taliban, he looked to Iraq as a possible source of assistance. Iraq, at the time interested in closer ties with the Saudis, said no. Later, as his troubles with the United States grew, Saddam reconsidered, and offered bin Laden a safe haven in Iraq. This time, bin Laden turned Saddam down, not because of any conflicts with Iraq but because he thought he had a better deal in Afghanistan.

[Jane]

I thought that was one of the most amazing interviews I have ever seen. What a melt down. And it almost sounds like Clinton is paying Clark ransom.

[clarice]

Flopping aces has tapes of today's meltdown and the I did not have sex with that woman--see them side by side and decide:

http://www.floppingaces.net/

[Octs]

Patton,

Air Force? Domi is screwing Stronach, who was or is screwing Peter Mackay who is screwing Rice who was or is still screwing Bush; Stronach was also screwing Bill. So, Montel Williams(there are no aliens Air Force intelligence) have the bottom line or what? It's a disease, is'nt it?

http://torontosun.com/News/TorontoAndGTA/2006/09/24/1888923-sun.html

[clarice]

From NRO's the corner today:

Bin Laden dead...again? [Michael Ledeen]

As Corner readers know, I was told many months ago that Osama died in Iran last December, and is buried there, under a marker carrying a woman's name. In early January, Pakistan's President P. Musharaff announced bin Laden had died of kidney failure, which I took as pretty good confirmation. Meanwhile, there has been no bin Laden video for two years, only audios with a voice that might be his son's. Now French intelligence, which is a serious organization, has leaked a document citing Saudi sources (often not serious at all) saying Osama died recently in Pakistan of Typhoid fever.

I think the circumstantial evidence of his death has been pretty good, especially the behavior of Zawahiri, who sure acts like a number 1, and secondarily the non-appearance of Osama for such a long time. It wouldn't be hard to conjure up explanations for all this, including a desire to convince us he was dead when he isn't, but all in all the most reasonable conclusion is that he's dead.

The misnamed Intelligence Community doesn't believe it, by the way. They think he's alive in Waziristan. And they're quite insistent about that.

Perhaps another reason to think he's dead, eh what?
Posted at 9:19 AM

________

I don't have sound set up on my p.c. Did anyone see the blogging heads showdown between Bryon York and David Corn? Anything interesting on it?

[Ovts]

Ya but, Domi started screwing Stronach in January too and was Mackay still screwing Stronach when Rice screwed MacKay and is she still screwing Bush because it might be like theat Kidney failure thing........and did Clinton get it first and not talk?

http://torontosun.com/News/TorontoAndGTA/2006/09/24/1888923-sun.html

[PeterUK]

"In February 1999, for example, the CIA proposed U-2 aerial-surveillance missions over Afghanistan. The report says that Richard Clarke, then the White House counterterrorism chief, worried that the mission might spook bin Laden into leaving Afghanistan for somewhere where it might be even more difficult for American forces to reach him:

Clarke was nervous about such a mission because he continued to fear that Bin Ladin might leave for someplace less accessible."

This does not sit well with the fact that the Clinton administartion would not go after bin Laden.

[Semanticleo]

"I worked for the Air Force intelligence all through the Clinton years,"

That explains a lot.

[boris]

It certainly explains why his posts are so much more informative than ... oh say ... yours.

[002 - VRWC]

Bob,

You just don't understand how vast the VRWC is. We planned Teddy.....LOL. As far as the 67 Olds - well - suffice it to say that another Kennedy crashed into a barricade while driving his mustand on the "way to a vote". Terminally confused.

I am like the wind.....

[windansea]

I'm like the wind......

I wonder, are you also like the sea?

windansea is on vacation, Osama is dead.

I question the timing....

[Other Tom]

“They [the Sudanese] released him. At the time, he had committed no crime against America so I did not bring him here because we had no basis on which to hold him, though we knew he wanted to commit crimes against America. So I pleaded with the Saudis to take him, 'cause they could have. But they thought it was a hot potato and they didn't and that's how he wound up in Afghanistan.”

--Bill Clinton addressing a Long Island audience, 2/15/2002

[PeterUK]

"Osama died in Iran last December, and is buried there, under a marker carrying a woman's name."

Nancy bin Laden?

[Sue]

windansea is on vacation, Osama is dead.

I question the timing....

Hmmm...on second thought, instead of the wind, maybe a ghost or a phantom or a supernatural being did the deed...

[Sueq]

Where does someone living in paradise go to vacation?