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September 27, 2006


Gary Maxwell

Well after looking at the conclusion portion of the NIE I have to admit that I am underwhelmed. If I were part of the CIA and that is all that my work and "intelligence" boils down to, I would quit and start playing piano at the local house of ill repute. A much more honest way to make a living. Seriously, we pay these bozos to come up with this? Sheesh, the President has Larry, Moe and Curly writing him droning reports of absolutely no insight. Its is beyond scary.


Empty Wheel says the Key Judgments was 9 pages long and they only released 3 pages. Hezbollah and Israel/Palestine made it to the cutting room floor. For whatever her knowledge, or lack thereof, is worth.


Isreal's invasion of Lebanon seemed to be a mistake for the new President while Sharon was in the hospital. He may not even have known about the invasion until it happended. The retired military and intelligence people who hated Sharon and his third party seemed to be behind the invasion. Bush seems to have the same problem.

We are on the ground in Iraq and there was probably a deal not to invade other countries until we were out. It's not in the estimate because it is the real problem.

Wilson's a Liar

I noticed that too! It is a pretty glaring omission. I think that those sections of the NIE were left out because they were not important to answering the political charges about Iraq.


If New York City doesn't rise up over http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,215983,00.html>this then I don't know what we are fighting for. Where are the pro choicers when you need them?

Dale in Atlanta

Tom: it's a good catch, and you are correct!

Back when I was writing Intel Assessments, and reading NIE's, we had to be very "careful" about attributing Arab terrorist acts to the existence of the state of Israel!

Too non-PC, for the IC handle!

It's interesting, because if you go back, and check out Ramzi Yousef's rational for the WTC '93, it's ALL about Israel, and the US's support for Israel!

As for bin Laden declaring war on us, as the Bojinka Plot, as Khobar, as AmEmb East Africa, as the USS Cole, etc.

But by then, they had refined the message to include: driving the infidels out of Muslim Holy lands.......because they are occupying us to hold us back, and to serve their Jewish masters, and steal our oil for the Jewish controlled Oil Companies and Jewish controlled international Banking cartel....etc., etc.

Strangely enough, even though I worked a "regional" command, over in Europe, writing Intel support for SIXTHFLT/NAVEUR, we got a visit from 2 DIA analysts one day, who asked, very strangely, our CO, to speak to me!

It turned out, my "analysis" was being read back in DC, and someone decided to that my "analysis" was NOT sufficiently "Pro-Israeli"!

In fact, it was viewed, back in DC, that I was "pro-Arab" (which isn't wasn't true; I'm neither pro-Arab or pro-Israeli! I'm an American, I don't slant my "intel" for anyone; my sin was, I happened to just bring a little balance to the products, by telling the cold, hard truth about both sides...)

Anyway, it was stunning, that the DIA, would send two of it's analysts, out to a "regional" Intel command, to track down one of it's "analysts", and pass the informal message that my "analysis" was too "Pro-Arab"!

No one, in our command, had seen anything like it before, and people were pissed off!

Fortunately, my CO backed me up, and I politely told the DIA analyst, that if he didn't like my analysis, he was free NOT to read it, and if that was still a problem for him and his bosses, they could feel free to contact the United States Marine Corps, and my Commanding Officer!

I could tell, I hadn't said the "right thing", but he backed off, and they shortly left!

That's, when I realized, that the National US Intel Community, was "politicized", in ALL directions, and NOT for the better!

That said, NIE's are a piece of crap; I'm glad that people like you, are finally getting to read them!

We used to get several of them, every month, from the CIA, on various troublespots/countries around the world, and we had hundreds of them in our files; they were functionally useless!

They are put together by committed, and no one is an expert, and EVERYONE in the "chop" chain HAS to approve it, and as a result, it is watered down, BS Gruel, and not worth the damn paper it's printed on!

Is it any wonder, Bush and Cheney went looking for their "own" intel prior to Iraq?

This NIE is a prime example the type of careful, CYA, pablum, analysis-by-committee CRAP, that the CIA had been feeting the national decision makers for Decades!

It's worthless, if you really want to know something, and be able to act forcefully on it!

Besides, I'm not surprised some of it's negative, considering that most of the Intel Community, especially the CIA, is at war with the Administration!

Of course they're going to leave out Arab/Muslim anti-Semitism, as a catalyst of the Jihadi culture, and try to blame it solely on Iraq!

The CIA and other Intel entities have been busy coverying their asses since 9/11, how they screwed that up, and the WMD issue; so it's time for payback to Bush/Cheney, et. al!


So, if our actions are fueling terrorism, then if we had sat by and did nothing after 9/11 then we would be all warm and cozy and safe all over the world?

Sara (Squiggler)

I'll ask the same question I asked in the other thread ... have you all read Michelle's column this morning Who is Paul Pillar?


Maybe someone will leak the answer to your question.


Thanks Dale!

Bruce Hayden

FYI - I have converted the original .pdf version of the NIE to HTML here in case anyone wants to cut and paste from it.

Gary Maxwell

This NIE is a prime example the type of careful, CYA, pablum, analysis-by-committee CRAP, that the CIA had been feeting the national decision makers for Decades!

It's worthless, if you really want to know something, and be able to act forcefully on it!

Like the FEDEX commercial, you just said what I said, only you made a hand motion like this ( well that and your years of inside baseball experience. thanks for comfirming what I thought. Putting the government in charge of almost anything, is not going to get your something of much use.

Dale in Atlanta

That's a great question; I ask that of all the little Leftists at work, when they complain about Bush/Iraq War, etc.

Then they start stuttering, and the real moobat shit comes out: the US is evil, we're responsible for all the evil in the world, capitalism....memmememe.....blood for oil...memmemeemem......Halliburton......memememememe......

Ah, I can't say anymore, it just pisses me off...


... it just pisses me off ...

Great ! more leaks.


Sara--Here's something I wrote on Pillar a while ago.>arrogant dunce likely leaker


Sorry Dale,

Didn't mean to get your blood pressure up.;}

It annoys me to no end, too.

Dale in Atlanta

Pofarmer: that's okay; I had to dip into my pill drawer, and down some of my "special" mix: some Prozac, mixed with Ritalin, and a few Valium!

That does the trick; when I'm feeling really "froggy" sometimes, I even cap it with a few Viagra!

Whew, blood pressure is back under control now...


There is also, suprisingly, no mention of Afghanistan. Perhaps it is off the radar of the intelligence agencies. So much for that commitment.

Gary Maxwell

Dale a Terrell Owens cocktail?


Althouse excerpted a NYT editorial today complaining that Bush released parts of the April NIE for political purposes! Well d'uh!

Sara (Squiggler)

Clarice, I knew that Pillar was a name that we have batted around here before.

Dale -- I'm with you. This whole thing with the CIA especially really pisses me off.

We should pull a Reagan with the air traffic controllers and fire everyone and start fresh. Even inexperienced operators without an agenda has to an improvement over the crap we get now from the traitors in our midst.

Sara (Squiggler)

has :: to be :: an improvement

Sara (Squiggler)

I heard this morning that this April NIE was actually produced as of 28 Feb 2006 making it many many moths out of date. Since then Zarqawi is dead and we have had an Israeli-Hezbollah war. I would say that both those things change the landscape dramatically.

Sara (Squiggler)

Apologies in advance for all my typos today. I'm having a rather bad pain day with my back. Pity party going on here, complicated by lack of coordination and shaking.


Sorry to hear you aren't well.

Surely you're not asking forgiveness for typos from me? LOL

Gabriel Sutherland

Malkin's Pillar chatter isn't much in my opinion. The theory speculates that the NY Times used an unidentified person to leak the contents of the NIE estimate to them and then a day later name Pillar as a source talking about the same article. It's saying that a source is anonymous on Monday and named on Tuesday. Is that how the NY Times operates?

Perhaps, but I think it is unlikely. I bolster my argument with Pillar's own comments. He deplored the NSA surveillance leaks to Charlie Rose. He said that a government cannot operate intelligence and counterterrorism operations without secrecy. Leaks are usually bad pub for a government, but they are deathblows to other governments that share intelligence with the United States. Other governments are very unlikely to share classified information with the US if we cannot keep a lid on it according to Pillar.

Malkin points to "Stop the NY Times" which in turn goes to the "Council on Global Terrorism" as Pillar's homebase. Well, Pillar is one of 8 members of the CoBT along with Lee Hamilton, himself a deplorer of leaks of classified information.

It would help to see other NIEs from periods close to April 2006 to guage what exactly the intelligence community thinks and how accurate they are in their analysis.

Merely suggesting that the intelligence community might be wrong seems to be an awfully safe place to be for the last 16 years.

Dale in Atlanta

Sara: I, and many of my IC "friends", have advocated dismantling the CIA for over a decade; but no one will listen....!

Gary: I've been a Cowboy fan for 35 years (I'm not from Atlanta!); and TO has/is/will ruin my team! Thanks!

All: Rick Moran over at Rightwingnuthouse, threw the NIE open to "discusion" last night; I was up until 2am, giving him my "thoughts"; here it is for you all!

Sorry, no time to clean up the spelling/grammer!

Rick: so much to say, so little time; it’s late and I have to go to bed soon, have a day job, but I’ll see what I can bang out real quick!

Leak: Politically motivated? Ah, yes; it’s so patentedly obvious; it’s really not open for discussion. President is not going to change any minds among the Leftists by Declassifying it anyhow, they made up their minds the day he was elected; he declassified it for his supporters; they’re the only ones he can reach anyhow.

PS: it’s appearing on Leftist Blogs now, that this has been Declassed, and it isn’t “bad” enough, that there is “another” NIE out there, being “sat” on by the President, that is solely focused on Iraq, and it’s ALL bad!

I strongly suspect that this is wishful thinking by Leftist Blogs and the Leftist press; my guess is that they’re getting vibes thru their rumormills, about the Classified Intel Report leaked by the WashPost & NYT two weeks ago, about the Al Anbar Province, written by that Marine Corps Intel Colonel (who’s a friend of mine, by the way…). Though it IS possible there is another NIE about Iraq sitting out there, I highly suspect I’m correct. IF there was a totally negative NIE about Iraq out there floating about the Intelligence Community, the anti-Bush/Rumsfield factions in the Pentagon would’ve already leaked it to the MSM, like they’ve done with this NIE, in an attempt to damage the President before the mid-term elections. Anyway, time will tell if I’m correct, or just swinging in the wind!

For the question of whether the Iraq War is causing an increase in Global Jihad, I have a rhetorical question:

a)Were we in Iraq, when 3000 people were killed in PA, VA, and NYC on 9/11?
b)Were we in Iraq, when the USS Cole was bombed, and 16 US Sailors murdered, and we were just lucky that the whole ship didn’t sink, killing hundreds?
c)Were we in Iraq, when the two AmEmbassies in East Africa were bombed, killing hundreds of innocent locals, and some 50 Americans?
d)Were we in Iraq, when the Khobar Towers were bombed in Saudi Arabia, killing scores there?
e)Were we in Iraq, when the attack on the WTC in 93 was initiated, and killed 6 and wounded people? Something that’s mentioned about that attack is that IF it had been successful, and that fact that it wasn’t was just an accident; but Ramzi Yousef’s plan was to topple the one tower, into the other, and bring them both down! IF that attack had been successful, it’s possible as many as 20,000 people would’ve been killed! Think about that! Were we in Iraq then?
f)Were we in Iraq when the same people planned the Bojinak airliner plot over in the Philippines, which if successful, would’ve killed as many as 3000+ people, in 1995?
g)Were we in Iraq, when Al Qaeda planned, and carried off the attack against our Peace Keepers in Somalia in 1993?
h)Please note, American troops, acting as Peace Keepers in Lebanon in 1983 and Somalia in 1993 were attacked and murdered.
i)Please also note, that America, protecting Muslim populations in Bosnia, in 1996 and in Kuwait in 1991, still was not good enough for the Jihadis, and we were still attacked and mudered, shortly after each event; so even protecting Muslims, from themselves, and their enemies, hasn’t been enough, to stop the Jihadis from attacking us and killing us!

Anyway Rick, if you can ask all the Leftists who oppose the Iraq War, and spout the meme that the Iraq War has CAUSED Jihadism, if you can ask them those questions, I’d be happy to listen to their answers!

Does a terrorist success breed more jihadists? Such as 9/11, etc.
I don’t know if anyone has ever done any in-depth analysis on this, and if so, it would be hard to quantify/put numbers on it!

But, it only makes logical sense, that the answer is Yes! Military recruitment in the US goes up, during/after “successful” Wars, such as the Gulf War, and also when we’re attacked, like 9/11. Those are historical facts; so it only makes sense, that that applies to them. I can’t imagine, under any scenario, which the Inverse is true; that Terrorist “success” causes the number of Jihadis to go down!

Remember, they declared war on us, not vice versa, and they view this as a War that will last decades, if not longer, whereas we are too stupid to realize that yet; so I doubt that any success has a negative impact on their recruiting!
As for this part of the NIE:

Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:

1. Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
2. Iraq Jihad
3. The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
4. A pervasive Anti-US sentiment among most Muslims all of which jihadists exploit.

I would personally, based upon 30+ years experience in the Middle East, and as a Marine Intel Officer and Analyst/Specialist on Islamic Fundamentalism, the correct order of these is:

1. A pervasive Anti-US sentiment among most Muslims all of which jihadists exploit.
2. Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;
3. The slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and
4. Iraq Jihad

Iraq is an excuse, given to them mainly by the Western Leftists, who they view as kindred spirits, and whose talking points they not only study, but use back at us, in propaganda audios/videos from Bin Laden/Zawahiri, and formerly Zarqawi, and now the new mouthpiece, the American Jihadi, Adnan Ghadan
When I first started traveling throughout the Middle East, in the last 1970’s, the Anti-Americanism was already there; the core issue was US support for the State of Israel, which in their view, the ONLY reason it exists, then, and today, is because of US economic and military support, and the support of the US Jewish community; which according to THEM, controls the US Government, the US Media, the US Banking Industry, Hollywood, etc.

Let me make this absolutely clear: THEY FIRMLY BELIEVE THIS! This is a firm as “truth” to them, as death and taxes are to us!

Anyway, the anti-Americanism was already there, and every single setback, every single act, every single event, is viewed as being manipulated, or caused to happen, by the US, via it’s Jewish masters! Again, in this respect, they’re a lot like the Looney Left in this country, and Europe, with the anti-Semitism!
Don’t forget, this goes at least back to WWII; the Arabs, specifically countries like Egypt, and people like the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, WHOLEHEARTEDLY thru their lot in with Nazi Germany and the Italian Fascists!

The Grand Mufti went to Germany, to help plan the Holocaust, which they now deny, in an irony of all ironies! From Tunisia, to Egypt, to Syria, to Iraq, to Palestine, Nazi Germany was the flavor of the day! The Grand Mufti helped form a Division of Muslim troops in the Balkans, to fight under the Nazi flag!

After WWII, it was short step from supporting Fascism, to alliances with the Soviet Union for Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Algeria, and post-Kaddafi, Libya!

From there, it is a short segue into Point #2; I really, in my entire career in the Middle East, never heard of such a thing as a “moderate” Imam on a Friday morning. Politically Correct Westerners will pooh-pooh this, and Muslims practicing TAQIYYAH will deny it; but for centuries, the pulpits of the Imams have been used to Islamicize, and preach Jihad, to generations of Muslims.

I presciently wrote about this very issue, 16 years ago, attempting to warn the Intel Community about the threat of increasing Jihadism, post the Gulf War.
Imams preach the glory days of Islam, from the pulpit, and a weekly basis on Friday mornings; the Glory that was the worldwide Islamic Caliphate, from the Pyrenees Mountains in Spain, to the sub-tropical jungles of West Africa, to the shores of Zanzibar in East Africa, to the Caucus Mountains in Central Asia, to the archipelago of the Philippine Islands!

The bygone Golden Empires of Al Andalus and the Alhambra in Granada, the Ottoman Caliphate, the blue city of Bukhara, the wonders of the Mughal Empire in India, and the Taj Mahal, to the conversion of the Hagia Sophia chuch into a Mosque in Istanbul, are events in Islamic history, that are inculcated into EVERY Muslim child, from the time they can read/write/attend Mosque!

Coupled with the inherent sense of superiority within Islam itself; the one “true” religion; the only true monotheistic religion; the only “revealed” religion; the only religion whose Holy Book has been unaltered, and unadulterated by Man, etc., and you have a “people”, Muslims, who arrogantly believe that THEY are the chosen ones, their religion proves it, but the past 700 years of History, since the Reconqista in Spain in 1492, has been TOTALLY against them!

They cannot, for the life of them, rationally rectify this painfully obvious dichotomy, and it has psychologically impacted an entire religion of people, and their behavior, for 700 years!

Point #3 is a “strawman” argument, thrown in there to satisfy the “PC” crowd with in the Intelligence Community!

Right thinking Muslims, don’t even believe in Democracy; not like we do in the West, anyhow. Al Qaeda itself makes that clear! Democracy is contrary to the teaching of Islam; the ONLY Democracy you will have, within a Sharia-controlled society, is what Allah gives you! End of story!

And with a Insha’allah (God Wills it), Bokra (Tomorrow), Ma’alesh (Never mind) mindset (IBM it is referred to by Westerners in the “know”); especially among Sunnis, who completely believe in Allah’s Will, and predestination (they passed a law in the Jordanian Parliament a decade ago, outlawing spare tires in Automobiles, because to carry one, was thwarting the will of Allah!!), and you can see, that social, economic, and political reform is a chimera for Muslims; if Allah wanted them to have it, they would have it!

That’s how the Jihadis are callously and capriciously able to exploit scores of homicide bombers (Shaheed, i.e. “martys”); they don’t tell them, if you kill Americans/Apostates, we’ll pay you $10,000; they tell them your life is shit on this earth, and the ONLY chance you have for a better one, is kill yourself in the service of Jihad, and go to heaven, and have all the Houris (virgins) and Ghalims (prebubescent boys) and water and alcohol you can handle!

Here’s a prime example to use, when Leftist start the meme, like point #3 alludes too, that “poverty” causes “terrorism”, and the Muslims outrage against the US, and inspired the 9/11 plotters (despite the fact, that people like Muhammed Atta, and most of his fellow plotters, and most of the Jihadi middlemen, as well as leaders, are in fact, firmly entrenched in the Middle Eastern MIDDLE CLASS; university educated, middle class families and reputations, and homes, etc.

Anyway, here’s a piece of analysis, you’ll see now where else; name the Top 20 POOREST counties in the World:

1East Timor $ 500
2Somalia $ 500
3Sierra Leone $ 500
4Malawi $ 600
5Tanzania $ 600
6Burundi $ 600
7Congo, Republic of the $ 700
8Congo, Democratic Republic of the $ 700
9Comoros $ 700
10Eritrea $ 700
11Ethiopia $ 700
12Afghanistan $ 700
13Niger $ 800
14Yemen $ 800
15Madagascar $ 800
16Guinea-Bissau $ 800
17Zambia $ 800
18Kiribati $ 800
19Nigeria $ 900
20Mali $ 900

Now, go back, and tell me, which ones have produced Jihadis, and Homicide Bombers, and which one has citizens, that have attacked the US, and Western Europe, et. al??

I’ve pulled them out for you:
2Somalia $ 500
5Tanzania $ 600
12Afghanistan $ 700
14Yemen $ 800

What do those Four have in common, I wonder? Only one that I can think of……wait for it……ISLAM! Isn’t that interesting? How uncomfortable do you think that makes the Leftists feel???

Where are the homicide bombers from East Timor?? How about Sierra Leone? Were any of the 9/11 murderers from Madagascar? I’m sure there are people in Eritrea, who have grievances against the United States; how come they’re not blowing us up? What about Haiti, in our own backyard, the Caribbean? It’s not on this list, but we all know it’s an economic basket case? Where are the Haitian homicide bombers and plotters?

In fact, the ONLY Jihadis, to come out of our hemisphere, except for the “homegrowns” in Canada, and Johnny Taliban here, and the Malvo sniper guy, Padilla etc., have come from the two countries that have a Muslim minority community: Jamaica and Trinidad & Tabago!

So the Lefitst meme, that “poverty” (usually implied as being caused by the United States and Oil Companies) causes the Jihadies to hate and attack us, has just been totally deconstructed here!

If you know your history, and demographics, you’ll notice on that list, there are ARE some countries there, such as the Comoros, Malawi, Nigeria, etc., that DO have Muslim minority populations, or in the case of the Comoros, Muslim Majority populations!

That’s Correct! I NEVER said ALL Muslims, worldwide, in ALL countries, were Jihadis or “terrorists”! However, I will say, that EVERY “terrorist” attack, against us, since the Gulf War, EXCEPT for the Oklahoma City bombing done in 1995, WAS done by Jihadis/Muslims.

Does that make ALL Muslims “terrorist”? Again, NO! But it makes the likelihood, that the next time there is a “terrorist” attack against American/Americans somewhere, that it is/are Jihadis/Muslims who carried it out!
Again Point #4 is one that we want them to have; if it wasn’t Iraq, it would be American support for Israel; which by the way, since we WEREN’T IN IRAQ, during Somalia, WTC ’93, Bojinka Plot, Khobar, etc., are the EXACT excuses that Ramzi Yousef and his uncle, Khaled Sheikh Muhammed used! Go research their testimony, over at the “Wiki”, and you’ll see!

And, if it wasn’t US support for Israel, it would be something else. Syed Qutb, the founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, visited the US BEFORE Israel was founded, and decided he HATED the US, and Westerners, because we too crude, no class, to rough, too loud, too sexual, too new, to uncivilized!

They’d find any excuse, and seize it; which is something you cannot convince the apologetic Leftists, in this country, or Europe, to realize!
Finally, someone needs to explain to Americans, and the World, WHY Islam in general is the way it is, and why it is susceptible to the Jihadi mindset, and why it susceptible to Anti-Americanism/Anti-Western feelings and propaganda!
The short answer is again a Leftist meme, started decades ago by sympathetic, Leftist Historians in American & European Academia: THE CRUSADES!
That inaccurate meme has been so thoroughly deconstructed; it’s not even worth debating anymore!

If you want to see them deconstructed by a professional, here is a good place to start:

As for me, based upon my own personal observations and experiences, these are the underlying factors; we have to take into account, which you’ll probably see nowhere else.

IF you go back, and look at the crucial time period, the Reconquista in Spain, and the crucial date of 1492 when the Christian and Muslim worldwide societies really began to diverge after Christian Spain finally defeated the last Muslim Emirate in Granada, and expelled all Muslims & Jews from Spain, there are several crucial things that differentiate the two competing Religious Societies:
Western Christian Societies underwent Two Major Transformative Events: Religious Reformation and Industrial Revolutions!

The times/dates were different for every major country, but in general, those two events took place in almost every major Christian power.

For Muslim Societies, the Reconquista in 1492 was the END of their golden ages; yes, there were brief flourishes in the Mughal Empire in India, and the Ottoman Empire, as well as some Central Asian flourishes; but in general, the Muslims societies, especially those most in constant contact with the west, and in closest geographical proximity, took the Reconquista, psychologically, very hard, and began Centuries of retrenchment, regression, suppression, and Devolution!

Religiously, the Council of Nicea in the 4th century, basically “unified” Christianity for hundreds of years until Henry VIII & Reformation etc. Granted, there were “exceptions”, such as the Cathars/Albigensians, the whole Gnostic movement and the Dualists, such as the Bogomils, Manicheans, etc. But basically, the Catholic Church was pretty aggressive in stamping out dissent, and “heresies”, and until Henry VIII and Martin Luther; it was pretty mono-theocratic!

Islam, if you now anything about the history of it at all, was the exact opposite! From the day that Muhammed died, Islam was a fractured religion! With no clear successor, the first schism appeared with the Shi’ites, and the Khajirits; two groups who did not want to follow Abu Bakr, Muhammed’s uncle and elected successor!

It went downhill from there, with literally hundreds of Sunni, Sufi, and Shi’ite sects, canonical schoos, etc., vying for control of Islam, and control of the message!

In other words, Christianity was unified for centuries, Islam was not, and has not, and never will be!

Additionally, another unifying factor for Christianity was that at it’s founding, Christianity was an oppressed religion! It was the new kid on the block; competing against its Jewish progenitors, and the big guys: Egyptian Pharaonic Religion; the Greek & Roman pagan religions, Mithraism, Zoroastrianism, Gnosticism, and even splits in its own ranks (prior to Nicea). Christian converts in Roman, use to have battles in the streets with followers of Mithraism, over meeting places and followers! Historically, Christianity was actually a dicey proposition for several centuries, and struggled to just survive, let alone spread. This “toughness”, and ruthlessness, that helped it survive and grow, served it well, in its later struggles with Islam!
Islam on the other hand, came to being, really, at a time where there was a major Political and Military “vacuum” in the Middle East. The old Roman Empire had collapsed, the Byzantine Empire was weak; the Zoroastrian Empire was collapsing in Persia; Egypt was Christian, but a shadow of its former self, and most of the Middle East was devolving into city-state status!

Most people don’t realize, but in less than a hundred years from it’s founding by Muhammed in Mecca, Muslim armies had spread across the Middle East, North Africa, and out into Central Asia, Persia, India, and into Indonesia, and as far as the Philippines and East Africa!

Muslim armies crossed from Morocco, into Spain, and were at the Pyrenees, by 732AD! The growth rate was phenomenal, and too fast!

When things were going good for them, and they were expanding, or in a form of stasis, things were fine! When Muslim armies started to suffer their first defeats, and setbacks, in the 11th century, at the hands of the Mongols, THAT is what spawned the Salafiyyah movement, under Ibn Tamiyyah, that exists up until today, under Bin Laden and Al Qaeda

After the Reconquista, Christian societies came out of the so-called “dark ages”, and began a remarkable ascent, politically, religiously, economically, colonially; all of these evolving factors naturally caused the actual hold of the religion itself on society, to evolve, and weaken.

Obviously, this very weakening, those two Transformative events, Religious Reformation and Industrial Revolution, DID NOT occur at all, or only on a very limited scale/location (possibly Ataturk’s Turkey!), in Muslim Societies worldwide!

Without those two major societal transformative events, that is how today, you have a 1000+ year old Theological philosophy, Salafiyism, that believes it’s okay to cut people’s heads off, that still hold’s sway over a healthy minority of worldwide Muslim societies, and more disturbingly, a larger percentage of supporters and sympathizers worldwide!

There’s an additional Economic factor consider as well!

I once had a wise old Anthropology professor, at the American University of Cairo, ask our class, composed mostly of Egyptian students, how far they thought that Egypt/the Arab/Muslim worlds were “behind” the US?
There was some nervous laughter and glances, and then after some discussion, the Egyptian students agreed that Egypt/the Arab/Muslim worlds were about 150 years “behind” the West/America.

The professor then put this up on the board:

Islam: Ramadan: month long fast; loses also at least 5 weeks of economic productivity each year!

Anyone who knows anything about Islam, the custom of the Holy month of Fasting during Ramadan, and who has been to an Islamic country when they are actually in observance of Ramadan, will immediately know what the Professor was talking about!

They go on a 5 week holiday every year, mandated by their religion, and because they have to Fast all day, including liquids, and thus eat & sleep and fornicate at night, only, between sunset and sunrise, they lose 5 weeks per year, of Economic Productivity!

That’s amazing!

If you factor in the fact that since it’s founding, Islam has basically been around for 1400 years; and thus 5 weeks per year, you get a figure of 135 YEARS of lost economic productivity, and even cultural and societal and governmental as well, over the 1400 year course of Islamic History!

Not far off, from those Egyptian’s students “guess”, all those years ago!

Gabriel Sutherland

Does anyone else understand the "J" curve of statistical analysis? It's a hockey stick in Canada.

I believe the actual charts of data are an upside down "J" which indicates that once you start looking at something closer in order to decrease its rate, the intial data indicates a significant rise in what you are looking for, followed by a steady decline as your solutions start to take effect.

"Holy crap! There are way more AIDS patients now." - statistician 1

"That's because we weren't looking for them before." - statistician 2

"Oh yeah." - statistician 1

Substitute AIDS patients for terrorists. Turn over a rock and you'll see something that appears it wasn't there before. Turn over a bunch of rocks and be ready for anything.


WOW! But to Ramadan add the fact that almost 50% of the population (women) are denied the opportunity to fully participate in the economy; that in many of the oil rich countried, labor is looked down upon; that scientific thinking is inimical to such a faith based world view; that tribalism and corruption limit entry into the economy; that capital formation and investment are hindered by rules against collecting interest---well, we could go on all day, couldn't we. Eaasier to just blame the Zionist pigs or their American lackeys.

Gabriel Sutherland

Dale in Atlanta: Are you aware of the fracture that took place among the Afghan Mujahideen once UBL formed his all-Arab army? Abdullah Azzam dies soon after this formation. All the mosques raising money for the Afghans have mysterious deaths to their leaders and replaced by Arabs at the behest of the Blind Sheikh.

Your long discussion just sort of brought that memory to my attention.

Gabriel Sutherland

clarice: What do you expect from this part of the world? The American Universities in the ME were backup plans to fail attempts to establish Christian missionary outposts. The conversion process was far too dangerous as the reaction of locals was often incredibly violent and intolerant. Education was another story, not so violent, but not without its share of victims of Arab murderers.

Dale in Atlanta

Clarice: very germane, relevant, obvious points, espeically the First one, that I didn't even have time to delve into; thanks!

Gabriel, I remember something along those lines as well! But would have to research it, to find details!


Dale...thanks. Learned a lot.


Thanks Dale. Maybe we could start our own intelligence agency online--blind drunk we could do a better job of it with just the collective wisdom of the posters here.(Then we could get Soylent to put it in musical comedy format to get some attention.)

Florence Schmieg

Bush said he would release those sections that were related to Iraq.

The data in the report was gathered in February. The report was written in April. So it is very dated with things happening almost daily.

The leak was political, part of the NY Times usual agenda to influence the elections since Bush was elected in 2000. They never change.

It is amazing that Bush has managed to win so many elections against this concerted effort to undermine him by these big time news outlets. My husband always tells me to trust the common sense of the American people.

Gabriel Sutherland

The data in the report was gathered in February.

The first drafts were issued at the end of February. The data collection period was through to Feb. 28.

Pillar would have played a role in the data collection and possibly the first drafts, but he was out of government prior to the release of the final conclusions.


Question about the J curve. In economics, there has been lit on the "J" curve for decades. When a country devalues its currency to attempt to improve its balance of trade, the short run effect is to worsen the balance, because imports are purchased at a higher price of foreign currency. In the longer run people stop buying imports at the higher price, and the balance of trade improves.

The initial worsening followed by evenual improvement makes a "J" shape.


Gabriel, it seems obvious to me he was A source for the NYT as he was earlier on other matters for Pincus.

His views are antithetical to the administration's and he firmly believes that foreign policy should be set by the mandarinate.

Whether he saw some of the final draft or not, the Agency should have cut off all contact with him long ago.

I question why Negroponte succedded in foorcing the firing of Goss who was in fact plugging the leaks to replace him with a new CIA head who is not.

Sara (Squiggler)

Dale would you give me permission to reproduce the above as a blog post?

On your list of poorest nations is Mali. Isn't Mali the location of Timbuktu where AQ Khan bought his hotel and used it for his Africa base of operations?

Gabriel Sutherland

JohnH: That is correct. The J curve comes up frequently when statisticians try to analyse a subject for which previous data did not exist.

There are many studies that show radical increases in new cases, but they account for the increases as a product of a closer analysis of the cases, and an increase in awareness in the public of the cases. The conclusions usually reflect this notice or note that the study should not be interpreted in a manner which would lead one to an alarmist view of the data.

On terrorism, the Indian terror analyst, Rohan Gunartna, has also written and stated that terrorism has increased as a result of the war in Iraq. I'm not privy to the full context of his argument as I've seen him make these statements in response to questions seeking his affirmation of the pretext conclusion that terrorism is increasing because of the war in Iraq.

Dale in Atlanta

Sadly, Clarice, I think the collective wisdom I've seen on the Blogosphere this past year, from Powerline to Capt Ed, Rick Moran to Mac Ranger, Seixon to Ace to AJ to the various posters here, and other places, FAR outstrips what I saw "inside" the National Intelligence community.

The exception I'll make, is the Service Intel people I worked with; some of the Marine, and Navy Intel Officers I served with, were nothing short of geniuses!

Problem is, they're Service Intel experts, as as such, not alowed to have an impact on the National Intel Services, such as the CIA etc.

Here's a funny little story, to illustrate my contempt about the CIA.

I was living in Herndon VA, in 1999. It took me about 2 minutes, to figure out one of my neighbor ladies, living in the townhome beside me, was working for the "Agency"!

Which by the way, is why I always laugh when the Wilson's maintain that their neighbors didn't know!

Anyway, I saw her one day, outside her home, we made chitchat, I asked her what she "did", and just by the look on her face, as she tried to lie to me, I said, never mind, you work for the Agency!

She was so "impressed" that I had blown her cover so easily, that she asked me about my background, and I told her a bit, and she insisted I email her my resume, and come interview, because she thought I was a good fit!

I had made my mind up some years before, that I was done with the Intel Community, and I was very reluctant, especially since it was the CIA, to try it out, but it was post the AmEmb in East Africa bombings, and I knew we were in trouble with Bin Laden, so I was starting to feel guilty about "walking away", so I decided what the hell, and emailed her my resume.

After about two weeks, one of the Division heads called me, said they were pleasantly surprised to see my resume, wanted to talk and meet with me, and set up an appointment down at Langley!

I went there at the appointed time and day; it had been about 5 years since I had been in "there"; was met by the person, signed in thru security, and taken to his office.

He spent about 15min asking me about my background, and I told him a few Classified things I had done, that weren't on my resume, and he about fell out of his chair!

He said, I had no idea what was you that did some of that stuff during the Gulf War, that's amazing, you'll be a valuable asset to us, and our division, etc.; can't wait until I let you talk to our team!

The way we work here is, we let the "team" (about six people); interview all the new people, and decide if they'll be a "fit"!

I said fine, lets' get on with it!

He said by the way, that I had "sold" him!

So, I go into a room, and there are the six analysts, from the "team", sitting around, with pad/pens, and we start the interview!

Before I had gone in though, the boss had gone ahead, and given them a quick 2min sysnopsis on the new information he had about my background that I had told him in his office.

So, we start the interview, and I could feel myself actually starting to think, you know, this might not be so bad, I'll seriously consider it!

And then, out of the blue, the "team", starts asking me questions, and taking NOTES, not on my background, and how I'd fit in, etc.; but in fact, "knowledge" type questions, that they should've KNOWN, for doing what they were supposed to be doing.

It quickly devolved into me, giving them an hour lecture, on Islam, Bin Laden, ties to various groups, and other knowledge that I had at the time, that was the result of intensive research and study on my part; they're all taking notes like crazy, etc.

Anyway, the boss decides to put and end to it, and he says any last questions?

And suddenly, I get hit with "Well, you know so much more than the rest of us, about this subject, how do you feel you'd fit in with us, and could you work with US? Also, because you know so much, do you think you'd make us LOOK BAD????"

My heart just sank! I KNEW I wasn't getting the job!

I answered, correctly, that it wasn't about me, it was the team that mattered, that I could work with and for the team, it was the US and our National Security that mattered most, and not any personal glory, etc.!

I could tell from the six blank stares, that it didn't matter, I was done!

I said goodbye, told the boss to call me, he said he'd let me know in 24hrs, and in the meantime, he's all excited, like I'm coming in the next day!

I didn't hear from him for a week.

Finally broke down and called, and left messages, and finally emailed him too!

Nothing, for another week; finally, I caught him on a call, when he didn't expect it, and he sheepishly admited that HE would've hired me, but the "team" thought I knew TOO MUCH!

So, if you have any questions, as to why the CIA is screwed up, that's a microcosm right there!

Sara (Squiggler)

Yeah you might screw up their propaganda machine. What a bunch of #%$$#%^@Q6.

Dale in Atlanta

Sara: Hi, please feel free, IF you credit "Dale in Atlanta"; sorry, don't have my own Blog yet!

I do come over to yours, by the way.

Feel free also, to clean it up in spelling, if you wish! :-)

PS: you are correct about Timbuktu/Mali!

JohnH & Gabriel: yes, I've seen stuff about the "J" curver recently on the web, and I think you are both right, we've found more, because we're looking for more!

Someone over at Rightwing, tried to rebut one of my posts, by quoting Dodd (?) off a program today, where he said, prior to 9/11 Al Qaeda had 20,000 members, and thanks to Bush and Iraq, today, has 50,000 members!

I DEFY, ANYONE, the CIA, Dodd, ANYONE in the IC, to PROVE that stupid, asinine statement!

First, IF there is a shred of truth to it, it's typical "J" curve stuff!

Second of all; the CIA had NO clues, as to how many members of Al Qaeda there were, prior to 9/11, and IRAQ, and that's when they felt saft enough to line up in their Afghan training camps, and be counted by Drones/Sky Sattellites.

The CIA is just regurgitating old "info", that's been circulated for two decades, that the Afghanistan Mujahideen trained "20,000" Afghan Arabs, to fight the Soviets, and is using that figure as their starting point!

Their completely bogus "50,000" jihadis now, is just wishful thinking!

Where the hell are they?

Can they show me a picture?

Where were they all trained?

How about the 20,000 or so we've killed since 9/11, in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, the Philippines, North Africa, etc.?

Do they have a roster of the 50,000; or are they doing what the CIA normally does, and just "sexing" it up, to make the President and Iraq look bad?? YES!


Wow, Dale. What a post!

Hey, speaking of NIE and all that, for anyone who hasn't seen this, here's another analysis from 1946 that doesn't say anything about the war in Iraq.


Laurie Mylroie reported to me that while the Gorlick wall prevented the agency fromlearning about Iraq's involvement in the WTC bombing, when the case was over she reviewed the files publicly available in the courthouse and reported the investigative material in those reports to the Agency. The analysts had never thought to go there and look.

Why are we paying for this?


More on Pillar.



Because of the strategic position of the Moslem world and the relentlessness of its peoples, the Moslem states constitute a potential threat to world peace. There cannot be permanent world stability, when one-seventh of the earth's population exists under the economic and political conditions that are imposed upon the Moslems.

Nothing has changed, has it?


Western Leftists, who they view as kindred spirits, and whose talking points they not only study, but use back at us

Both have strong roots to postmodernism. Leftist ideology and radical Islam are facades for the underlying control machinery. It isn’t just a new twist on discourse; it is a structured calculus to empower dark and primitive human traits to engage and destroy the West and it's underpinnings; reason, true science, democracy, liberty, markets.

MANY ELEMENTS in the ideology of al Qaeda--set forth most clearly in Osama bin Laden's 1996 "Declaration of War Against America"--derive from this same mix. Indeed, in Arab intellectual circles today, bin Laden is already being likened to an earlier icon of Third World revolution who renounced a life of privilege to head for the mountains and fight the American oppressor, Che Guevara. According to Cairo journalist Issandr Elamsani, Arab leftist intellectuals still see the world very much in 1960s terms. "They are all ex-Sorbonne, old Marxists," he says, "who look at everything through a postcolonial prism."


THE RELATIONSHIP between postmodernist European leftism and Islamic radicalism is a two-way street: Not only have Islamists drawn on the legacy of the European Left, but European Marxists have taken heart from Islamic terrorists who seemed close to achieving the longed-for revolution against American hegemony. Consider Michel Foucault and Jacques Derrida, two leading avatars of postmodernism. Foucault was sent by the Italian daily Corriere della Sera to observe the Iranian revolution and the rise of the Ayatollah Khomeini. Like Sartre, who had rhapsodized over the Algerian revolution, Foucault was enthralled, pronouncing Khomeini "a kind of mystic saint." The Frenchman welcomed "Islamic government" as a new form of "political spirituality" that could inspire Western radicals to combat capitalist hegemony.

From: Postmodern Jihad
Source: The Weekly Standard
Published: 11/26/2001


With leftists ascendent in the Democrat party it is quite reasonable to suspect their sympathies are with al Qaeda even as they pose their concerns for "the constitution".

Dale in Atlanta

Good question; I got another one for you; you got me in a story telling mood!

I was at the "regional" intel command, in 1989; for the past year, we had been getting Major reports, MOSTLY (95%); from the CIA that Two, specific Middle Eastern countries (NOT Iraq is all I'll say now, that's for a later story); were hellbent of acquiring, developing, and USING their WMD's; both Nuclear and Chemical!

Sound familiar?

CIA was driving this HARD, with their Intel; everyone in the EUCOM theatre, was spun up about it!

Finally, in the spring of '89, we got the "indications" we were going to war! to clean up the WMD issue in one country in particular!

We spent the next six months, Targetting the ENTIRE country; so that we could Strike EVERYTHING; we were ready!

Then, all of sudden, a CIA report comes out, that basically says: Country "A", has this new WMD capability, and they are GOING TO USE IT AGAINST US ASAP!

Well, SIXTHFLT was put on a 72hr "window", to carry out strikes!

Meanwhile, one of my Navy Intel buddies comes up to me, and says Dale, did you see this CIA report, and what it says; you're the expert on this; and I just heard a couple Admirals and Generals talking about it, saying we're ready to luanch, because this report is True, and they're going to attack us, and we have to hit them first!

One problem; the new "capability" that was outlined in the CIA report, was a Scientific IMPOSSIBILITY!


I knew it as soon as I saw it!

I rushed out onto our Watch Floor, and told the 11 "stars", discussing the issue on the secure radio net, that it was a complete and utter IMPOSSIBILITY!

Well, they didn't want to believe me, because the report came from the CIA!

But finally, they listened, some commonsense prevailed, and everybody calmed down!

The strike was put on hold, pending further info...

Meanwhile, I got reamed by MY bosses, for having the temerity to break in on 11 "stars", and telling them the TRUTH!

Next thing you know, to put the issue to rest, I flew back to Langley, to talk to the people who had directly issued the report, in order to see if we could clarify the issue.

I get into the CIA HQ, track down the division, see the head analyst, and say basically: Hey what gives, this report is totally bogus, and we were 72hrs from starting a shooting war with the entire US Sixthflt because of it!

The head analyst listened, and finally said, that makes sense, we agree that what that person said, CAN'T happen!

I said great, send out a message, and RETRACT the report, and state why, that it's impossible, because of this, and that, and that will get all the "stars" off our backs, because they believe you guys, because you are the CIA!

I just get this long, uncomfortable stare.....

Finally, I shouldn't even be discussing this issue with you; we just did it as a courtesy because you all asked; we don't normally do this type of thing; we've agreed you are correct, we're sorry, the analyst that wrote this report, doesn't have your type of experience, but we will NOT Retract the report!

Why not!??

Because it will make us look bad!!!!

And that was it! Refused to retract it!

I tried one more time, the old "our Generals and Admirals trust you guys, if we're going to go to war, that's fine, but we at least want to make sure before we get someone killed, that it's for a Good, and correct reason...yadda ...yadda....yadda..."

Nothing, nada, zip, zilch; No chance at a Retraction of the message.

I had to fly back to Europe, brief our people, and we had to issue our own message, in theatre, not going to the CIA, saying the report was bogus, and couldn't be trusted, and this was why......

Any wonder why Bush/Cheney et.al, BELIEVED what they believed about Saddam, and WMD's, before the Iraq War, and that the CIA was mostly responsible?

Lyin', backstabbing, CYA'ing incompetent bastards, and I have more!

And I know about a dozen Intel Officers, most still active duty in the Miitary, unlike me, who could confirm this story 100%

And I have more, whenever I feel like it...


Hey, Boris, maybe Ms. Rice should mention that declaration in her response to Hillary.


I feel like I'm reading a Tom Clancey novel.

Sara (Squiggler)

Dale check your inbox.

Dale in Atlanta

Sara: Hi, got it, thanks; I'll reply a bit later tonight, have to run now! Thanks R/dale

Sara (Squiggler)

OH, BTW, on the rumor of a 2nd report that is "really bad," Tony Snow addressed this in the morning press briefing. The gist is that a new study on Iraq has been commissioned and that the report isn't even due for a year. It will be some kind of group think project and they aren't even fully formed yet, let alone have had time to produce a super secret report.


O/T but Gateway pundit has an interesting Billary article. This little tidbit in particular caught my eye:

Clinton threatened the media last week that he would investigate them if they got too close.



What caught my eye was the stuff about Dubai. Whoosh!


The Taliban, Hizbollah and Hamas did not even get mentioned in the NIE. Didn't make the cut. Not even worth worrying about (unless you live in Afghanistan, Israel or Lebanon).

Uncle BigBad


You need to write a book ASAP.

I can see a TV series -- sounds better than 24.


Hey sad, wasn't that Clinton threat something about if the reporters delved into the details of his marriage? I know I read that because we'd been going back and forth on a similar point here right before that came out, but Gateway didn't give a link. I tried the NY Post site, but they don't seem to have search or previous issues for the non-member masses.


..wasn't that Clinton threat something about if the reporters delved into the details of his marriage?

The first time I heard of the threat was from Sean Hannity. I don't recall seeing it in print, but I think you are correct. I guess we need to google.


Found it.


Via http://www.drudgereport.com/flash6nyt.htm>Drudge...SENATE IN PLAY; DEM CHANCE FOR CONTROL IMPROVES


I often wonder what might impact it might have had on the available intelligence regarding Iraq's WMD capabilities, intentions, and ties to Al-Qaeda if the after-action intelligence review on the Al-Shifa facility bombing hadn't been poleaxed by Secretary Albright in 1998.



They keep calling MO in play, and I-just-don't-see-it.


I think they are saying MO is in play because it is seen by so many as a bellwhether state.


Sue, the best thing the Reps have going for it, are these skewed predictions by the NYT. Hush yo mouf--and wait for the excuses (Diebold, bad exit polling, etc.).


Delay should have run for his seat.


I have a sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach. I'm usually wrong, in any prediction I make, if that is any indication. ::grin::


Real Clear Politics has the dems picking up 3 to 4 seats.


I think most Republicans will be looking like this on Election Day.


Headline, Senate in Play? I thought they were beyond play, I thought the Dems had it in the bag?


checked out some Rasmussen Polls.

They had McCaskill up 46/43 in January------of 05. It was that way up to a couple months ago. Now the campaign has started and it's about 47/41, and McCaskill has gone into full moonbat mode. She ain't driving many "moderates" into her camp lately.

Also of note, the only signs I see are Republican signs, nearly no Democrat signs. Also of note, I hear a lot more conservative talk, and talk about "those damn Liberals". National positions are hurting Dems in local and state elections here.


Kickey Kaus cracks me up, the NYTs is sorta like Lawrence O'Donnell to him...

Will Dems Lose the House but ...win the Senate?
By Mickey Kaus
Updated Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2006, at 9:03 PM ET
kf Wednesday .... NYT Thursday ... Time to rethink! ... 5:56 P.M.


It's 47/41 Talent

Charlie (Colorado)

Heh. Dale, I used to work for another three letter agency (No Such Agency). I was a contractor, and I was really kind of suprised to discover that they seemed to be about 1 effective for every 20 people.

Then I worked with the CIA, and realized that NSA got up to 1 in 20 because when they caught you being competent at CIA, they transferred you.

Needless to say, I find your story completely plausible.


Talent has been ahead for the past few weeks according to RCP.

Gary Maxwell

I was really kind of suprised to discover that they seemed to be about 1 effective for every 20 people.

Well distressing but it really fits the pattern. We all have seen the road repair crews. About the same ratio too. One guy working and the rest leaning on shovels or drinking coffee and talking on a cell phone.


We all have seen the road repair crews. About the same ratio too. One guy working and the rest leaning on shovels or drinking coffee and talking on a cell phone.


(which is better than LOL and just HEH alone!)

room 237

Does it matter in the end? The West has no desire to remain Western, and my granddaughters not yet born will be wearing burkas.


or semi on the snort, SNHAH-KEECH...the throatish laugh.

room 237

Does it matter in the end? The West has no desire to remain Western, and my granddaughters not yet born will be wearing burkas.


Does it matter in the end? The West has no desire to remain Western, and my granddaughters not yet born will be wearing burkas.

NO, some of us will be in our 80's by thenm but we will be "the resistance." ;) Don't let them take your guns.


Dale, awesome stories. Thank goodness we have alternative intelligence sources.

Dale in Atlanta

Charlie: you're right, and wait til I start telling you stories about my six months in the Pentagon; and our "National" and "Theater" Intel in Northern Iraq!!



From the STL suburbs, I can see more of a toss-up in Mo.

The problem is that McCaskill is not a moonbat. She beat a lefty governor in her own party primary and lost to a corrupt republican.

1. I wish she were running as a Republican.

2. I'll vote for Talent, but I hope she runs and wins another race.

Over the last twenty years in CA and MO, I can count about 3 races where either candidate would be acceptable. I hate to say it, but this is one of those three.

Talent will pull it out, but it is not a gimme.


The norms of many muslim cultures find it socially accceptable for a negotiating tactic to include giving the false impression that a particular item is irreplacaeable.

"Certainly the conventional wisdom a few years ago was the solving the Palestine problem was the key to just about every other Middle East problem"

Maguire has masterfully uncovered yet another miscalculation of the great unwashed west, to it's counterpart in the Orient.

Sorry. Feelin' extra snarky.



There's been a lot of talk about how the release of the NIE is a 'leak' of which the
leaker is guilty of undermining the WWoT.

Are you going to take on this lofty notion,
as Dear Leader has, that NIE in no way
changes anything, anytime, anywhere? Especially, Iraq.


"Even a president cannot wave a wand and announce that an intelligence report is declassified"

Wrong again.

Soylent Red

Wow, Dale.

From all of the comments herein I come to the following three conclusions, which I will issue in my own super-secret intelligence estimate. I'm leaking it here:

1. Terrorism breeds terrorism. Our actions are irrelevant. Its growth has nothing to do with us whatsoever.

2. Its wane has everything to do with our actions, and the consistency of those actions over a long period of time.

3. We must expose and overcome the collusion between the statist Left and fascist Islam before we will eradicate either.

Shoot. I've never worked in intelligence, it took me two minutes and sums up everything the President needs to know.


Don't miss this article:

Faoud Ajami has always had a unique capacity to explain the Arab mind to the rest of us, and he does it again today:
Intended or not, the release of the Senate report, around the fifth anniversary of 9/11, has been read as definitive proof that the Iraq war stands alone, that the terrors that came America's way on 9/11 had nothing to do with the origins of the war. Few will read this report; fewer still will ask why a virtually incomprehensible Arab-Islamic world that has eluded us for so long now yields its secrets to a congressional committee. On the face of it, and on the narrowest of grounds, the report maintains that the link between the war on terror and the invasion of Iraq cannot stand in a Western court of inquiry.
But this brutal drawn-out struggle between American power and the furies of the Arab-Islamic world was never a Western war. Our enemies were full of cunning and expert at dissimulation, hunkering down when needed. No one in the coffeehouses of the Arab world (let alone in the safe houses of the terrorists) would be led astray by that distinction between "secular" and "religious" movements emphasized by the Senate Intelligence Committee. They live in a world where the enemies of order move with remarkable ease from outward religious piety to the most secular of appearances. It is no mystery to them that Saddam, once the most secular of despots, fell back on religious symbols after the first Gulf War, added Allahu Akbar (God is great) to Iraq's flag, and launched a mosque-building campaign whose remnants -- half-finished mosques all over Baghdad -- now stand mute.
No Iraqi agents had to slip into hotel rooms in Prague for meetings with jihadists to plot against America. The plot sprang out of the deep structure of Arab opinion. We waged a war against Saddam in 1991 and then spared him. We established a presence in the Arabian Peninsula to monitor him, only to help radicalize a population with religious phobias about the "infidel" presence on Arabian soil. The most devout and the most religiously lapsed of the Arabs alike could see the feebleness of America's response to a decade of subversion and terror waged by Arab plotters and bankrolled by Arab financiers. The American desire to launch out of Iraq a broader campaign of deterrence against the radical forces of the region may not have been successful in every way, but the effort was driven by a shrewd reading that, after Kabul, the war had to be taken deep into the Arab world itself.[snip]
We needn't give credence to the assertion of President Bush -- that the jihadists would turn up in our cities if we pulled up stakes from Baghdad -- to recognize that a terrible price would be paid were we to opt for a hasty and unseemly withdrawal from Iraq. This is a region with a keen eye for the weakness of strangers. The heated debate about the origins of our drive into Iraq would surely pale by comparison to the debate that would erupt -- here and elsewhere -- were we to give in to despair and cast the Iraqis adrift."



Interesting George Mason poll on Iraqi attitudes--AQ down, Syria down, Sadr down Iran down.
Raith in their own troops up.
"To sum up - Iraq is coming along better than the news project. Indeed, more and more Iraqis believe that they will be soon ready to stand on their own two feet. This optimistic assessment may to a large degree reflect their disappointment in the efficacy of the American forces but, all in all it is a positive development.

Do remember this when you read headlines accurately reporting that "most Iraqis Want US Troops Out Within a Year and Say US Presence Provoking More Conflict Than it is Preventing."



"Do remember this when you read headlines accurately reporting that "most Iraqis Want US Troops Out Within a Year and Say US Presence Provoking More Conflict Than it is Preventing."

I also recall 60% of the polled support attacks on US troops.



The reason there's more support for attacking US forces is that the Iraqi's believe that we won't withdraw even if their govt asks us to

I'm not sure how correct that is, but the rising confidence in themselves and lower confidence in how much the Americans can accomplish for their security would lead to more anti-American troops sentiment.

It's ironic, isn't it, that the more we train THEM to take over the security of their own country, the LESS trust they have in us to do so.

It's good for the Iraqis. Not so good for us. But if one doesn't insist on getting credit for a deed well done, one can accomplish many things. Like Iraqi security.

I say to that. Amen.
I say to the Iraqi attitude, so what. They still have a lot to learn, but it will take a while.


re missing from the NIE

Central America

Hell, maybe there's even intelligence on the danger to us from Global Warming and/or its advocates..:)

Anyway, I think they could get six pages out of the above list plus whatever I forgot.


I vote for Soylent's NIE over the other one.


I wonder how the Iraqis like being polled. Did anyone ever ask them their opinion before? Like seeing them demonstrate in the streets, and hold up purple fingers - makes me smile.


Heralded Iraq Police Academy a 'Disaster'

By Amit R. Paley
Washington Post

BAGHDAD, Sept. 27 -- A $75 million project to build the largest police academy in Iraq has been so grossly mismanaged that the campus now poses health risks to recruits and might need to be partially demolished, U.S. investigators have found.


Are those 4 grievances mentioned in the NIE or the Israel-Palestinian problem the source for tensions and Jihadism in the Philippines and in the Sudan? What about attacks against Hindus in India or Christians in Nigeria? How about the tensions in Egypt from the extremists who want the Secular government to fall? How about the tension between Russia and the Chechyn rebels? How about tensions in Algeria? And of course the list goes on.

The real reason behind Global Jihadism is the simple reason -the jihadists goal to establish a pan-Islamic Caliphate throughout the world by working to overthrow regimes it deems non-Islamic -
It's the simple truth that many don't want to admit to. No need for complicated and complex reasoning.

Bush is able to cut through all that self deceptive self blinding fog and see the truth for what it is.

No, it's not about corruption, social injustice, poverty or Israel. It's a much bigger goal than that. Why people refuse to see things as they are and prefer to look for other reasons is mind boggling.

As far as Bush's hands off approach in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, you've got to ask yourself how did Clinton's hands on approach in that conflict make things any better? The more concessions Israel made, the more of their busses they saw being blown up. Terrorism was never so bad over there as it was during and after the "Oslo peace accord" days - which is probably why the Israelis gave up on Barak etc. and decided to vote in Sharon as their leader. They grew tired of the "here's an olive branch in exchange for a suicide bombing" approach. Did Israel's retreat from Gaza and Lebanon appease the other side? I think Bush's approach in that region has a better chance to bring peace over there (if that's at all possible)than the left's "just hand over the goods and we'll worry about the violence later" approach.

As far as "Global Jihadism" is concerned, the "Jihad" will not end until the Jihadists have established their caliphate across the entire world.

Good luck with all that psychobable gibberish. I hope you'll wake up and smell the cofffe one day. It's right in front of your nose, but you refuse to acknowledge it.


And here is some more from that article. Must have been a Haliburton job.

"The Baghdad Police College, hailed as crucial to U.S. efforts to prepare Iraqis to take control of the country's security, was so poorly constructed that feces and urine rained from the ceilings in student barracks. Floors heaved inches off the ground and cracked apart. Water dripped so profusely in one room that it was dubbed "the rain forest."

This is the most essential civil security project in the country -- and it's a failure," said Stuart W. Bowen Jr., the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, an independent office created by Congress. "The Baghdad police academy is a disaster.""

"As Iraqis stand up, we will stand down"
G.W. Bush

But will we ever be able to sit down after the reaming that BushCo has given America.

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