The Alcee Hastings Watch

Mickey Kaus speculates on the upcoming Big Media coverage of the election:

ll-Hands-On-Deck MSM Drive for Victory! ABC's The Note has a thorough and knowing outline of "How the (liberal) Old Media plans to cover the last two weeks of the election" to try to ensure the GOPs do not regain any initiative. ...All ABC's Halperin & Co. left out, as far as I can see, is Point #13: Bury the news about the Secure Fence Act (if Bush doesn't bury it first!), Point #14: Do not mention the name "Alcee Hastings," and #15: 'Keep Foley Alive!' (though that may no longer be possible, even on NPR). ... 2:58 P.M.

The NY Times is somewhat on board with that, but there is a subtle problem - Jane Harman, the ranking Dem on the House Intelligence Committee who is marked for replacement by Nancy Pelosi, has been in the news herself for being too friendly with AIPAC.  Awkward!  The Times has plenty of readers who take an interest in Israel so it is tough to duck this. 

On the other hand, Alcee Hastings is the candidate of choice of the Congressional Black Caucus, and from time to time it has been clear that there is a bit of tension between blacks and Jews within the Democratic Party; with that in mind, the Times does not want to report on trouble in paradise two weeks before the ascension of Speaker Pelosi.

The result is some of the more passive "reporting" we are likely to see - here is the Times presenting All The News That Fits Their Storyline:

For a Top Democrat, Further Climb Seems Out

By MARK MAZZETTI

Representative Jane Harman has gained national prominence as the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, but even her supporters now concede that she is unlikely to become chairman if her party wins control of the House.

Standing in her way is another California lawmaker, Representative Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats’ speaker-in-waiting, who would have the power to pick the leader of each committee. The relationship between the two has soured in recent years over political rivalries and policy disputes, and Congressional officials on both sides of the divide say Ms. Pelosi would most likely look elsewhere to fill the Intelligence Committee’s top job.

“To say it is unlikely she will get the job is accurate,” said one Democratic Congressional official with knowledge of the party’s post-election plans.

...Ms. Harman, a moderate from Southern California, has been one of the party’s most outspoken voices on national security matters since the Sept. 11 attacks. But she has also drawn sharp criticism from more liberal Democrats, including Ms. Pelosi, who have privately said that she has not sufficiently used her position to attack the Bush administration for its prewar intelligence failures on Iraq and for its use of secret programs like the domestic eavesdropping carried out without warrants by the National Security Agency.

Fine, Ms. Harman is not enough of a Bush-basher, and what Dem could object?  That said, neither Ms. Pelosi nor the Times may want to advertise that moderate Dems are getting Lieberated from their posts.

Here comes the all-holds-barred Hastings coverage:

Two candidates whom Ms. Pelosi is said to be considering for Intelligence Committee chairman are Representatives Alcee L. Hastings of Florida and Silvestre Reyes of Texas, both of whom currently serve on the panel.

The selection of Mr. Hastings, who is black, would help Ms. Pelosi shore up support from the powerful Congressional Black Caucus. But he has a checkered past, having been impeached and removed from a federal judgeship in 1989 on a bribery charge. Some Democrats fear that installing him in so sensitive a position would only invite Republican charges of weak Democratic leadership on national security matters.

The Times was apparently unable or unwilling to get any comment from Nancy Pelosi's office on this - even a simple "Ms. Pelosi was not available for comment" would have provided an extra chuckle.

And why is the support of the Congressional Black Caucus so important to Ms. Pelosi just now?  The Wash Times reported that she may lack the votes to become Speaker - would the Times care to address that?  Please.

Finally, there is the 'Friend of AIPAC' angle:

Ms. Harman’s efforts to claim the post have even attracted the attention of investigators. Federal officials said Monday that she was the focus of a year-old F.B.I. inquiry related to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or Aipac, a powerful pro-Israel lobbying group. The officials, confirming a Time magazine report, said the bureau had been looking into whether she had made improper promises to the group in exchange for its efforts to lobby Ms. Pelosi on her behalf.

But the officials also said that the accusations had not been proved and that although the inquiry remained open, it was no longer being actively pursued.

“Congresswoman Harman does not know what this is all about,” said her lawyer, Theodore B. Olson. “She has no information from the government that she is under an investigation of any sort, and the idea that she should be investigated for being a supporter of Aipac is frightening.”

TIME had more details and drama, but the underlying case appeared to be ridiculous.  However - is Alcee Hastings also a friend of Israel?  Inquiring minds want to know (but not at the Times).  I have read that he is, but surely the Times' readers would like to see that pinned down.

Comments

[anonymous]

Nicely done, Enlightenment. Nicely done.

[anonymous]

Actually, the simple sentence (subject > verb > direct object) would be the first step.

[Rick Ballard]

Paragraphs are definitely to be avoided when voiding a stream of semi-consciousness into a thread - otherwise he'd wind up with damp cuffs.

[anonymous]

Aside from all the literature professor comments on style, what about the content of Enlightened's piece? Any thoughts?

[anonymous]

19 Arabs brought the U.S. government (and the most well-financed military in the history of the world) to its knees? And George W. Bush couldn't do anything about it?

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I must have missed that bring it to the knees day. I thought that was Monica with Bill.

[SunnyDay]

I'm still working on who shot Kennedy.

[windansea]

Any thoughts?

yeah...what's your name art the DUmp?

[topsecretk9]

Kaus:

You had to go to page A18 of today's NYT and dig for a few paragraphs to find out that Speaker-Expect Pelosi--a woman who apparently needs a Cray XT3 supercomputer to update her enemies list--will pass over Jane Harman and select either Alcee Hastings or Silvestre Reyes for chairmanship of the intelligence committee. Hastings, as the next-most-senior Democrat, has to be considered the frontrunner. He has at least one little problem, though.

DEMOCRATS SAY THEY MIGHT NAME FORMER FEDERAL JUDGE IMPEACHED FOR BRIBERY TO HEAD INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE

How hard is that ad for the GOPs to whip up? Make Pelosi deny it! Why does the RNC have those millions to spend anyway? 2:54 P.M.

http://www.slate.com/id/2151609/

Well, now that the stories out there and Steve Clemons is confirming

--I learned -- in great detail -- about Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi's intentions to unseat Representative Jane Harman as Ranking Member of the House Select Committee on Intelligence on Saturday, the 17th of September but sat on the story, both because I wanted to dig a bit deeper and also because I was being crushed by some other deadlines.

All that said, the story is out, and the Washington Post's Charles Babington has the best run down at the moment. Here is a longish excerpt of yesterday's story:

The widely praised Sept. 11 commission recommended that members of the House and Senate intelligence committees stay for several terms to build expertise. But the top Democrat on the House committee may be booted in early 2007, and the reason has more to do with internal party politics than intelligence matters....

http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archives/000978.php

[John Dunshee]

The Congressional Black Caucus? Weren't they the same ones that were whining about being disenfranchised when Newt cut the funding for all the caucus's in 1995? They assured us that if their funds were cut that they would be put out of business.

But they're still around 11 years later? And they're listened to...why?

[Bill in AZ]

Cell phones work fine at 4000, 8000, ft, etc. They work too fine, hit too many towers, that's why they prefer you don't use them. Regarding the rest, unenlightened is an idiot.

[anonymous]

I'm still working on who shot Kennedy.

Posted by: SunnyDay | October 24, 2006 at 09:43 PM

Do you expect you'll have the answer any time soon?
I've been dying to find out who done it.

[anonymous]

Which Kennedy? Or are you working on both cases?

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Nevermind the fact that they received very rudimentary flight training at Pensacola Naval Air Station

Does someone actually believe this load of crap? Who are these people? The scary thought is they are out there on the freeways with the rest of us.

[Florence Schmieg]

Things definitely looking up for Republicans this evening. A lot of improved polling being released. I stick by my prediction of holding both houses.

[Bill in AZ]

My prediction - there will be lib heads exploding all over the world Nov 8.

I think there is pretty close to a critical mass of people who have discovered alternate media - and many more quasi-politicals will discover it in the next two weeks as they actually start to pay attention. Many of these are folks who have developed a complete and utter contempt for the MSM, for their slanted polls, the blatant rigging of "news", predictions, etc.

Even if the result is a few lost seats here and there, MSM and the dems will know it to be a huge landslide for Bush in the face of their constant drumbeat of deliberate BDS for the last six years.

[clarice]

Some numbskulls on the right have said it would be good for the Rep party if they lost the house.

Actually, if the Dems lost again, it would be the best thing for the party and the nation.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Exactly Clarice -- one is getting a whole lot of play for his 21 reasons. I've been reading that blog for a year and it is not a surprise. A so-called libertarian with more in common with his San Francisco neighbors and consumed with penis envy of George Bush. BDS with a gun.

[anonymous]

And what is good for the Party is good for the Nation.

One nation, one people, one leader.

[clarice]

It would be good to have two real parties again and not just one party with acceptable coherent policies on one side and a kindergarten full of loonies doing anthing to regain power on the other side.

The party is off the tracks. Clinton patched over its structural weaknesses (it is just an agglomeration of disparate interest groups often at odds with eachother) and no one since him has been able to stop the party's devolution.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

The Jews as a group have traditionally been Democrats and yet it is the Democratic party who wants to abandon Israel. The African-American community traditionally supports Democrats and yet it is the Democratic Party who is calling Michael Steele racist names and trashing him right and left with racist epitaphs. The gay/lesbian vote has traditionally gone to Democrats and yet it is the Democrats and gay Democrats who are going to great lengths to out gay politicians. Tell me again why these groups support the Democratic party?

[clarice]

Tradition.

[SlimGuy]

Redstate discussing recent polls made this observation

The most recent example of this is in Missouri, where a widely trumpeted poll done by SurveyUSA showed Jim Talent behind by nine points two weeks ago. Today, SurveyUSA has released a poll showing Talent ahead by 3. Now, it's absolutely unthinkable that the race has actually swung 12 points in the last two weeks, so SurveyUSA offers a bunch of explanations that basically boil down to the fact that they simply took a bad sample last time. With this poll, Talent now possesses a lead in the aggregate of the three major polling companies that are polling this race (Zogby does not count as a major polling company).

[SlimGuy]

Clarice

Looks like AT has a double post up on Sweden with just a headline variation.

[jack]

"We're constantly changing. The enemy changes and we change. The enemy adapts to our strategies and tactics and we adapt to theirs," G.W.Bush

Oh. There's going to be some changes alright. Have fun adapting to your new cellmate Georgey. He likes boy-men like you. Especially the adaptive type.

[jack]

"19 Arabs brought the U.S. government (and the most well-financed military in the history of the world) to its knees? And George W. Bush couldn't do anything about it?"

GWB is the ultimate wuss!

[Sara (Squiggler)]

More penis envy from the peanut gallery.

[SlimGuy]

More penis envy from the peanut gallery.

Posted by: Sara (Squiggler) | October 24, 2006 at 11:19 PM

it's all that one hand cut and paste thing don't ya know

[clarice]

SG,yes. That happens sometimes. This is not a paying operation and we all have other obligations. Ditto with proofreading errors.

[SlimGuy]

Clarice

Understood but was just saying it so you could email the editor to do the fix.

Hey I still love reading it. Quality stuff.

[jack]

"Paragraphs are just the first step to logical linear thinking and therefore are to be abjured."

Hey Clarice. What is linear thinking? Apparently you think you are using it. Would using a term with no legitimate meaning be a good example of what you call "linear thinking"?

[arrowhead]

Michael Barone provides a rough prediction of "...an almost evenly divided House: 219 Democrats, a net gain of 16, and 216 Republicans." (see www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/baroneblog/)

Any comments?

[jack]

"Any comments?"

Subpoena power. Ah. Subpoena power.

[arrowhead]

Correction: That would be "any SANE comments on Barone's analysis."

[jack]

Didn't GWB's daddy say just last week: "I would hate to think ... what my son's life would be like" if Democrats win.

Subpoena power. Sweet sweet. Subpoena power.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

So typical -- nothing about governing, nothing about a sane foreign policy, just childishness and gotchas and high school pranks.

[topsecretk9]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/24/AR2006102401446.html

...Federal law enforcement sources confirmed yesterday that the FBI opened an investigation in 2005 into whether Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.) improperly enlisted the aid of a pro-Israel lobbying group, but they cautioned that no evidence of wrongdoing was found.

The inquiry focused on whether Harman had made promises to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) in exchange for its support of her desire to become chairman of the House intelligence committee if Democrats take control of the House, several law enforcement sources said.

Although the case is still considered open, officials said, the allegations have not been substantiated, and there has been no significant investigative activity on the issue in recent months. The inquiry was first reported by Time magazine...

Sounds like CREWs heavily redacted email ploy.

[clarice]

Yup..Make a crackpot charge to the FBI, then leak that there's an investigation underway.

[arrowhead]

Not so fast. You obviously did not read the article. Even assuming Barone's very rough prediction is correct, the election of a Democrat speaker is not guaranteed. For example:

Such a result would raise the question of whether Mississippi Democrat Gene Taylor, who declined to vote for Nancy Pelosi for speaker in this Congress, would do so again, and whether another Democrat might do so—which could produce a Republican majority for speaker.

My question goes to the accuracy of Barone's analysis. Specifically, I'm not sure that I agree with his outcome on the eight races that he places in the "lean democrat" category.

[jack]

Who in their right mind would come to a modern conservative/neocon website looking for discussion of "sane foreign policy"? Oh that was precious. Thanks Sara!

[TexasIsHeaven]

What I want to know is what was in the documents that Sandy Burglar was stuffing in his pants, socks, underware, shoes, etc.

Not to mention the documents that he destroyed - or said he did. My own pet conspiracy - he hid a few for safe keeping just in case he ever needed a "get out of jail free card" and to be sure he would continue on in the land of the living.

Does anyone think we will ever know? Whatever they were I can imagine Bill Clinton was thankful they would never see the light of day. Wonder how much money Sandy Burglar got for stealing classified documents? I don't think he did it for free.

[topsecretk9]

...If Americans vote for what sounds like sweet reason from the Democrats, bin Laden and company will rejoice. What they will hear is the death knell for any prospect of effective U.S. military resistance to militant Islam. With the Republicans out, the Islamists will be confident that Democrats will deliver the best of both worlds: less emphasis on military force and a rigid maintenance of U.S. foreign policies that are hated with passion and near-unanimity by 1.3 billion Muslims. If Osama approved of music, he would be whistling "Happy Days Are Here Again!"

What the enemy thinks is not the sole reason on which to base a vote. I will vote for Republicans, as I always do, because some know unborn babies are human beings who should not be murdered with the Democrats' joyful zeal. Enemy perceptions are worth remembering, however, because if Americans elect Democrats believing them likely to defeat al Qaedaism, history suggests they will be wrong.

The combination of Democratic rhetoric and the indelible fact of the Clinton administration's relentless refusal to try to kill bin Laden — preferring to protect its Arab, arms-buying buddies at the cost of American corpses — ensures that voters will receive what Clinton-era Democrats are best at giving: barely disguised pacifism that has and will continue to allow al-Qaeda and its allies to steadily destroy U.S. security.

Michael F. Scheuer, a 22-year veteran with the CIA, created and served as the chief of the agency's Osama bin Laden unit at the Counterterrorist Center.

[topsecretk9]

Sorry, Tomorrow's OP-ED

Link....

http://washingtontimes.com/op-ed/20061024-090445-5244r.htm

[SlimGuy]

2003 Bush Tax Cut: By The Numbers Historic Tax Cut Boosts Growth, Lifts Stock Market, and Increases Jobs

$14,374,330,000,000 Total Increase in Household Wealth Since April 2003

$5,700,000,000,000 Total Increase in Shareholder Wealth Since May 20, 2003

$863,654,000,000 Total Amount of Tax Cuts Enacted Since Fiscal Year 2003

$783,890,000,000 Total Amount of Additional Tax Cuts to be Returned to Taxpayers Through 2010

$625,000,000,000 Total Increase in Federal Tax Revenues Since FY 2003

$207,788,000,000 Reduction in the Deficit in the Past 29 Months Due to Stronger Economic Growth

$98,600,000,000 Combined Income Gains for Shareholders From Dividend Increases & Tax Savings 03-05

$62,000,000,000 Surplus of Capital Gains Tax Revenue Not Accounted For By Revenue Estimators

$60,000,000,000 Deficit REDUCTION Since the Tax Cut Was Signed Into Law

300,001,643 Total Number of Americans benefiting from President Bush’s Tax Cut

91,000,000 Number of Individuals Owning Shares of Stock in America

23,000,000 Number of Small Businesses Benefiting from Income Tax Reductions

6,600,000 Number of Jobs Created Since the Tax Cut Was Signed Into Law

12,000 The Magic Number of the Dow Jones Industrial Index surpassed

$2,092 Tax Increase for a Family of Four With $50k of Income if Tax Cuts Are Repealed

200 Number of House Members Who Voted Against This Growth Generating Tax Cut

50 Number of US Senators Who Voted Against This Growth Generating Tax Cut

25 Number of Years Dividend Paying Companies Declined Prior to the 2003 Tax Cut

164.0% % Increase in the Dividend Tax Rate if the Income and Dividend Tax Cuts Expire

123.0% % Increase in Dividend Income and Share Repurchases Since 2003 Tax Cut

91.0% % Increase of Stock Ownership in the Bottom Quintile of Income Distribution Since 1995

74.0% % Increase in S&P 500 Companies Boosting Their Dividend Since 2002

65.0% % of Voters Who Were Investors in the 2004 Elections

51.2% % of Total Tax Cut "Cost" That Has Been Recouped From Higher Levels of Growth

14.0% % Margin of Victory for Republicans From Investor Voters in 2002 Elections

4.6% Unemployment Rate Which Continues To Disprove the Constant Economic Pessimism

3.7% % Average Quarterly GDP Growth Since Tax Cut Was Enacted (long run average is 3.3%

[Sara (Squiggler)]

From Riehl World View:

via Daily Kos - Damned cheap Democrats:

Here's the bottom line -- safe Republican incumbents are ponying up in an effort to keep control of Congress -- to the tune of $2.3 million more than Democrats. It's why they win -- they work harder and sacrifice more than our safe, lazy, entrenched incumbents who would rather stew in the minority than actually extend themselves out a bit.

via The Washington Times: Damned cheap Republicans:

Senate Republicans with enormous campaign war chests are refusing to transfer significant amounts of money to help fellow Republicans who are cash-strapped and face defeat in the final weeks of the campaign.

The stinginess alarms some of the Republican Party's top campaign strategists, especially because it is in such stark contrast to the millions of dollars that Democrats have transferred to their candidates in need.

[Jane]

A new day arrives and once again it looks and feels like the tide is turning - right.

I hope it's not too early....

[hit and run]

clarice:

It would be good to have two real parties again and not just one party with acceptable coherent policies on one side and a kindergarten full of loonies doing anthing to regain power on the other side.

clarice, please cite your sources when you start throwing these kind of accusations around.

Kindergarten, indeed

"The gavel of the speaker of the House is in the hands of special interests, and now it will be in the hands of America's children."

--Nancy Pelosi on the prospect of Dems winning back the House of Representatives

[Jane]

I second Clarice. Pelosi admitted that the only policy is to bring down George Bush. I guess we can characterize her as a abject failure.

[Sue]

Time to wake up America.

Sheesh. I need another cup of coffee.

A conspiracy of how many? Who all was involved? The president? The VP? The military? The CIA? The FBI? How do you keep all of these people quiet and on the same page? The CIA leaks like a sieve, yet they have managed to keep any and all involved in something of this magnitude silent?

On second thought, I think I'll go back to sleep. ::grin::

[Florence Schmieg]

Wow!! That Michael Scheur piece doesn't pull any punches does it?! And he is one of the media's favorite guests because he is critical of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, saying it is American foreign policy that the jihadists are riled up about. He thinks we should destroy them with overwhelming force and then get out.

[Rick Ballard]

"Specifically, I'm not sure that I agree with his outcome on the eight races that he places in the "lean democrat" category."

He covers that pretty well with

I didn't include a tossup category, which pretty much guarantees that some seats I place in the Republican column will end up Democratic and some I place in the Democratic column will end up Republican. I've consulted the polls but haven't treated them mechanically..

I found NY-26, FL-13, NM-01 and PA-07 to be puzzling as Lean Dem and NC-11 and FL-16 really aren't sure things for the Dems. He seems to be relying on a heavier carryover from the October 10th polling than would seem reasonable. I would have OH-01, OH-02, CA-04, CA-11, MN-01, FL-22 and WI-08 moving into the Sure Republican column.

IMO Barone made a decent but slightly pessimistic analysis that should get every Rebulican in the Lean Republican and Lean Democrat columns out to vote. That may be why the Sure Republican list is a bit shorter than need be.

[Gary Maxwell]

Tell me again why these groups support the Democratic party?
Tradition.

Actually mix in a little bit of sedition with tradition. While a lot of lefties wont admit their collectivist symphathies, that is what drives them. Thus railing about corporations and taxing the wealthy and health insurance for folks who have declined coverage as a choice etc. And the Iraq war gives them a chance to really hone the anti America hectoring.

[SunnyDay]

DUmmie FUnnies is pretty funny today. The meltdown begins - as Lucy yanks the football away yet again.

[Jim Miller]

If you find the thought of Alcee Hastings as chairman of the Intelligence Committee appalling as I do, you might want to do what I have done. I've written an open letter to my own Congressman, Jay Inslee, asking him to refuse to vote for Pelosi as Speaker -- and citing her apparent choice of Hastings as one of the reasons he should refuse to vote for her.

I don't expect Inslee to do the right thing -- he doesn't have much practice at that -- but I do think raising the issue can only help the Republicans. And it is possible that a few moderate Democrats will see reason.

[Gary Maxwell]

A three seat majority may get you elected Speaker ( it may not as I have speculated before too ). The worst thing about getting elected as the leader is then that you have to lead. And 219 cats, 30 or so which call themselves Blue Dog Democrats will not be in the mood to be herded like lemmings to the cliff and beyond. Think of a guy like Chet Edwards in Waco, Texas. He has fought tough battles and is swimming upstream in a very Republican district but continues to get elected. How likely is he to effectively write the script for his Republican challenger in the next election in only two years? 30 of these kind of guys. And the anecdotal evidence that I have seen in most ditricts where the Democrat challenger is ahead of Republican congressman is that they look and sound a lot like Republicans. More Blue Dogs?

[Rick Ballard]

Gary,

You'd have to put Bob LaFollette and the DFL over in the seditionist column to make that true. The influx of Jewish immigrants from the 1880's to the 1920's were warmly received in Emma Goldman's settlement houses where they were thoroughly indoctrinated with a socialist vision as part of their preparation for citizenship.

It's a very interesting lesson in how perversion of the "justice concept" was used as a type of political jiujitsu. The same perversion worked its destructive magic in the Presbyterian, Episcopal and Methodist churches (as well as in the Catholic church in the US). It's still killing them softly today - with the exception of the Catholics, who have finally escaped from John 23's bromidic hemlock.

[maryrose]

Pelosi and dem cohorts are celebrating too soon. Now they are saying that they have to keep on the offensive. Many of their liberal dumb followers think the dems have a lock and will probably not vote on Nov.7th because they believe the dems have already won. It's a double-edged sword and I think this wek the dems are realizing their error in presuming to measure for new curtains. I sgree with Laura Bush- other than absentee no votes have been cast yet. To be this cocky early on spells trouble. You know what they say about people who ASSUME.

[Specter]

OT - anyone know why sweetness & light is down? Or is it just me?

[Gary Maxwell]

Its down. My message says suspended. Probably a hack by some teed off lefty.

[SlimGuy]

Rick

Another is NY-24. Very little polling on this race (only one on RCP).

Bush 2004 48/47 Bohlert won last time 57/34
now open seat, but locally a clear Rep bias.

NY-26 I agree

Bush 2004 55/43 same two guys 56/44

Polls wild swings on this SUSA has +3 RT/CD and Zogby have him -16

IN-9

Too Close

Bush 2004 59/40 Third time matchup to the same two guys and they keep swapping the seat.

[Jane]

It was up for me, about 10 seconds ago - but with yesterday's news.

[SlimGuy]

Powerline suggests that some races are so close we may not know on Nov 8 due to having to wait for absentees to be counted and John Fund suggest some races may end up in recounts or the courts.

[Specter]

It is back up. Glitch....or DOS...who knows.

[maryrose]

I agree with John Fund. Many will be too close to call so let's make sure we have our republican lawyers at the ready. We don't want another Washington governor race scenario where the dems unearth 500 some hidden or lost ballot to try to fix another election result. What happened in Washington state was pure unadulterated fraud and with the Senate race there we may have to focus in on I believe it is King couty or whatever that largest county is. Maria Cantwell another dem who bought her way in with dot.com money may get desperate enough to call in the election fixers.

[Rick Ballard]

Slim,

NY-24 is kind of a null contest. It's a dying district (under 18s have dropped about 42K in five years) with housing appreciation running under 3% annual for the past five years and no good places to pile up pork. Arcuri has a higher Q than Meiers and has a money edge.

I'd be interested to hear what SBW says about the race. He lives there and may have an entirely different take on it. I'd much rather be defending a seat in a growing district rather than one that is dying.

[SlimGuy]

Rick

Latest poll has it 49/49 so hard to tell

[Barney Frank]

A new day arrives and once again it looks and feels like the tide is turning - right.

I hope it's not too early....

I hope it's not too late.

[Rick Ballard]

Slim,

Party and surrogate spending by the Reps is $1.8M while the Dems have spent $1.2M. All the Dem spending is by the DCCC - Moveon and Emily's list aren't interested in this race.

This is a district where the Rep GOTV 72 hour program probably has not been tried. It just wasn't necessary in '02 or '04. Implementation of that program could well be the difference in the race. The Reps have another major ad push coming there soon as well.

[SlimGuy]

Mary Katharine Ham at townhall makes this observation today

Allah has a depressing round-up, as is his wont, but takes heart in the Netroots being forced to declare moral victory once again. Pretty soon, they'll have enough "moral" victories to be the party of family values!

[SlimGuy]

Today's post over at

http://stopoctobersurprises.blogspot.com/

Open letter to Joe Solmonese:

It is your responsibility to rid the HRC of the SSP gang. It is important for you to do so; doing nothing is connivance.

When I started this pursuit (or stumbled in), I knew nothing of the HRC or its mission. I am now thoroughly aware of how many people rely on the HRC to forward the rights of the LGBT community. Underhanded tactics of a few not only tarnish the organization but also its mission.

If you do not act, I will. Friday is your deadline or I name names.

gtl

Update: So who's calling? The MSM (main stream media), that's who.

[arrowhead]

Rick -

"I found NY-26, FL-13, NM-01 and PA-07 to be puzzling as Lean Dem and NC-11 and FL-16 really aren't sure things for the Dems. He seems to be relying on a heavier carryover from the October 10th polling than would seem reasonable."

I agree. Thanks for the great analysis of all the races.

[SlimGuy]

Rogers over at blogactive today is trying to throw outing claims at Charlie Christ Rep Gov in Fl and also tarring Katherine Harris's campaign at the same time.

[jack]

"clarice, please cite your sources when you start throwing these kind of accusations around."

Clarice is just giving us some examples of what he calls "linear thinking"... something that we should apparently be doing if only we knew what it is.

[Gary Maxwell]

I think we all have figured out Jack last name, it only has three letters.

[jack]

And Gary's age ... it has only one digit.

[clarice]

Jack, Clarice is almost almost a feminine name and it is in this case.

SG, your name is in lights.

http://americanthinker.com/comments.php?comments_id=6442

[SlimGuy]

Clarice

The message was taken back down a few minutes ago at SOS blog, seems like he was only putting it up long enough to get the message to the HRC staff and pulled it after he determined they read it.

[Potomac Joe]

Gary: "And 219 cats, 30 or so which call themselves Blue Dog Democrats will not be in the mood to be herded like lemmings to the cliff and beyond. . . . How likely is he to effectively write the script for his Republican challenger in the next election in only two years?"

I've been thinking about that too. Look at those 3 districts in Indiana (2, 8 and 9) that are seen as likely Dem pickups. The candidates aren't exactly in the Pelosi/Rangel/Conyers mold, and if they do win, they'll be representing conservative districts that Bush won handily in '04. Sure they'd vote for Speaker Pelosi, but will they vote with her if it means losing the seat in '08?

[clarice]

Well, we've already memorialized it. Too late if he didn't mean it. Once on the IT there's no going back.

[SlimGuy]

I should have captured the site durnit.

[Gary Maxwell]

Rick

Take a gander at Dafydd ab Hugh at Big Lizards. He has gone through the House races and is calling races by congressional district. He seems to be about where you are.

http://biglizards.net/blog/archives/2006/10/sprint_to_the_f_1.html>Revised Sprint to the Finish

[jwest]

Amazing as it may seem, I found a portion of a Sheldon Drobny (Air America founder) article at HuffPost that made sense.

I’ll paste the pertinent passage so you don’t have to soil yourselves by traveling there.

“…….My discussions with John (Zogby) and another intelligence source who has a contact inside the White House has emailed me his analysis of what is going on behind the scenes. And John Zogby has confirmed that the polling leads are in his terms, "soft." This is the analysis given to me by my source:

"I think we Dems are heading for a catastrophically low turnout. The essential part of Rove's strategy going back decades is polarization and demonization: Dems and independents get disgusted and boycott the polls, the far right, however, gets energized.

Every election, turnout gets lower and lower which suits Rove just fine. Right now, half of all Americans don't register, and half of the registered don't vote. Polarization works. By keeping turnout under 25% of all eligibles, all Rove has to do is mobilize 13% nationally to win. They have used direct mail to update and propagandize their base, a cheap and easy way of updating the database.

Yes, I have been suspiscious of Diebold machines for years, but honestly think the declning turnout is the key to GOP control. Zogby is a pro, he knows that low turnouts means general polling becomes wildly inaccurate. GOP polling of targeted turnout is hugely expensive but superbly accurate. It is time for the Dems to get back to fundamentals. If my White House source is correct, we have squandered our best opportunity to take back Congress."

This is the first time Dorbny has made sense on any subject.

[clarice]

Polarization probably does reduce turnout and help the Reps. Nevertheless, Drobny errs in giving Rove too much credit for that.
N'cest pas?

[clarice]

SG--This is what SOS now has on its site:
[quote]Today I received a comment on this blog as follows:

Brad Luna said...

“The email exchanges in question between former Congressman Mark Foley and a House page have been in the possession of bloggers and media outlets for some time now. Yesterday, it came to our attention that an HRC employee, hired just last month to work for us in Michigan, was responsible for initially posting these emails on his blog. We investigated the matter, determined that HRC resources had been inappropriately used, and let him go. No one at the Human Rights Campaign, other than this individual, had any knowledge of his activities,” said Brad Luna, Spokesman for the Human Rights Campaign.

I have emailed Brad asking for confirmation of this statement (and some others things). If, by chance, my email is filtered out, Brad should respond by writing to gtlx102006@yahoo.com.[/quote]

http://stopoctobersurprises.blogspot.com/

[SlimGuy]

Clarice

At least by posting about it at AT, and thanks much for the H/t by the way, it sort of does what TM said the other day.

Toothpaste meet tube

[topsecretk9]

Also...July and August archives of StopSexPredFAKE aren't available any more, but I am sure they are archived by many people

[clarice]

Lileks is in rare form on Pelosi and the children in charge again theme.
Here's an excerpt:
[quote]Look, everyone's in favor of children, but it's not as if the Bush administration shuttered schools and whipped the waifs back into the coal mines. Many people with children, moreover, believe children are a personal responsibility. They believe the federal government should devote itself to things it is better equipped to do, like building an anti-missile shield to keep squat Korean sociopaths from dropping nukes on elementary schools. (Pelosi is opposed to missile defense, apparently preferring to deploy teachers who would scold the missiles off target.)

But perhaps this is what America wants after five years of inconclusive war: not President Dad dealing with the bogeymen abroad and at home, but National Mom, turning the entire might and majesty of the United States government toward the expansion of the school lunch program. If she's particularly successful, the lunches might actually be delivered by Marines. They won't have much else to do.

We're told the Democrats have an agenda -- in the first 100 days, Congress will overturn the accumulated horrors of the Bush regime. (Except for Reagan's funeral. They'll let that stand.) A preview follows.

Day 1: Party like it's 1992; citizenship for all Gitmo detainees, a blanket amnesty, and a "Circle of Healing" ceremony held on the Capitol steps.(more)[/quote]

http://www.newhousenews.com/archive/lileks102506.html

[topsecretk9]

maybe not..I was getting internal service error...hiccup.

[topsecretk9]

Yep...it was Human Rights Campaign...an employee of theirs...

http://vicarioussunshine.townhall.com/g/0822d124-3d43-46f4-b8fa-9bca613343b1

...I decided to call HRC.

The communications director (you don't need his name) explained to me what happened. An employee working for them out of Michigan was using the organization's resources and computers to work on this website (SSP). It recently came to the attention of the HRC and they have since dismissed the employee after investigating his actions. I did not press him on any connection or similar purpose of HRC and the employee. I'll leave that to others.

The gentleman I spoke with could not have been nicer and even asked me if I would like to become a member. While I declined, we also spoke briefly about the Foley issue and agreed he should have resigned. He thanked me for going directly to the source rather than believing the blogs. Although the blog in question is indeed correct.

[SlimGuy]

TS9

If they got back to the SOS blog guy first with the same response, that could explain why he took down the missing post, since they met is issues about their people. Makes sense.

[Bob]

Then still more magic was used to make the building totally defy physics as well as common sense in having the uppermost floors pass through the remainder of the building as quickly, meaning as effortlessly, as falling through air, a feat that without magic could only be done with explosives. Then exactly 30 minutes later the North Tower collapses in precisely the same freefall physics-defying manner. Incredible.

Spoken like a real moonbat. So Mr. In-frightenment... you sound like your a Structual Engineer. Do you know the type of Steel used in the Towers?

You should try and do a little independent research istead of spouting the classic horse shit in your post.

He also noted that designers chose to fabricate many of the building columns out of very high strength steel [90 ksi steel as opposed to the more typical 36-65 ksi steel]. “This is not allowed by the structural design codes then and is still notallowed in current codes,” he stressed. “But the World Trade Center did not need to obtain a permit from City Hall. Because of special status as Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, they could make such choices outside the prevailing codes.”

This choice, he argued, allowed builders to use less steel in the columns [two to three times thinner than typical columns] presumably to save cost.

But by using high strength steel and thin cross sections, he pointed out, on impact the plane was able to cut through the outside steel bearing wall and enter the building--delivering thousands of gallons of jet fuel to the interior. During the ensuing fire, he said, the thin outside columns of the steel bearing walls were quite vulnerable to the rapid rise of temperature in them and reduction of their strength as a result of rising temperature of the steel.

Read the whole thing... http://www.designnews.com/article/CA6363426.html>FEA Study Shows Design May Have Played a Role in the World Trade Center Collapse

Wake the hell up!

Nicely done, Enlightenment. Nicely done.

Posted by: anonymous | October 24, 2006 at 09:18 PM

Another moron!

[Gary Maxwell]

My discussions with John (Zogby) and another intelligence source

Dogby the lunatic Lyndon Larouche supporter actually made two errors in the above sentence. First he used "another" after Zogby that would mean Zogby was an intelligence source ( intelligent?) , either way WRONG - and intelligence? What he is asking the CIA about the election? No doubt he met intelligent source. Now who would a Larouche nee AAR investor think is intelligent? Shudder.

[Gary Maxwell]

http://www.townhall.com/Blog/Default.aspx>Steele and mom

Seen the latest Michael Steele ad yet? How many votes do you think his adorable mother gets him? I think its a bunch. See for yourself

[Gary Maxwell]

almost Larwyned the thread!

[clarice]

Steele is such an appealing candidate. And the WaPo in a rare fit of honesty endorsed Ehrlich for governor.

As for HRC--we all knew some time ago the location of the poster. Too bad HRC was not as honest as Hastert and waited until the full trace was done to fess up.

[anonymous]

Nicely done, Bob. Nicely done.

[jwest]

Gary,

One good thing about the Drobny article is that he is a credentialed lunatic in the “reality based community”. He has admitted to receiving “insider information” from Zogby and one other that their impending loss in the election is a function of inaccurate polls meeting the irresistible force of the GOP ground game.

At least this plants the seed of truth with the moonbats. When republicans win most of the seats in question, along with a few they didn’t even think of (Michigan), the cry of “Diebold” will be their first reaction. Drobny’s article will provide an alternative explanation to the mid-range crazies as head explode around them.

[hit and run]

I still pause every time I see the HRC reference as it relates to Foley, thinking how ironic that she is trying to "stop sexual predators" while still being married to one, before remembering it's the Human Rights Campaign.

[SlimGuy]

Clarice

Will be watching the staff bios over at HRC to see if it was a higher up that took the bullet or a low level staffer