Easing The Air Out Of The Balloon

For reasons only he could explain, Adam Nagourney of the Times devotes his Election Day report to a damping down of Dem expectations:

For Democrats, Even a Gain May Feel Like a Failure

By ADAM NAGOURNEY

WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 — In most midterm elections, an out-of-power party picking up, say, 14 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate could call it a pretty good night.

But for Democrats in 2006, that showing would mean coming up one seat shy of taking control of both the Senate and the House. And it would probably be branded a loss — in the case of the House, a big one.

For a combination of reasons — increasingly bullish prognostications by independent handicappers, galloping optimism by Democratic leaders and bloggers, and polls that promise a Democratic blowout — expectations for the party have soared into the stratosphere. Democrats are widely expected to take the House, and by a significant margin, and perhaps the Senate as well, while capturing a majority of governorships and legislatures.

These expectations may well be overheated. Polls over the weekend suggested that the contest was tightening, and some prognosticators on Monday were scaling back their predictions, if ever so slightly. (Charlie Cook, the analyst who is one of Washington’s chief setters of expectations, said in an e-mail message on Monday that he was dropping the words “possibly more” from his House prediction of “20-35, possibly more.”)

To Be Fair: here are Mr. Nagourney's two most recent efforts, and in neither case does he strike me as wildly over-optimistic.  Cheerful, yes; delirious, no.

To Be Unfair: these paragraphs, starting down at the fateful twentieth, represents a stage dive into the Democratic Spin Zone:

And, unless the Democrats make no gains at all, it seems highly unlikely that there would be the kind of recriminations that typically follow a party loss, the kind of bloodletting already being seen on the Republican side.

Almost without exception, Democrats have praised Mr. Emanuel and Mr. Schumer — though Howard Dean, the party’s national chairman, may have to defend his decision to spread Democratic National Committee money to build up parties in all 50 states, while parrying requests for support in the Congressional races.

No recriminations if the Dems only pick up fourteen seats?  Hmm.  Maybe he means that top Dems won't even bother talking, and will segue immediately to literally sniping and knifing their foes.  That said, this passage certainly hangs the bull-eye on Howard.

Here are the fun quotes from this piece.  Rahm Emmanuel, who was nervous yesterday, is Jack Bauer today:

“I’m not getting into the Washington expectations game,” said Representative Rahm Emanuel, the Democrat from Illinois running his party’s effort to capture the House, in what he said would be a very brief minute he would devote to commenting on this subject. “My job is to deliver north of 15 seats and that’s what I am going to do.”

And here is Washington political seer Charles Cook on the consequences of the Dems failing to re-claim the House:

“I think you’d see a Jim Jones situation — it would be a mass suicide,” he said.

I concur - if the Dems fail to take the House, libs will be lining up to go duck-hunting with Dick Cheney.

MORE:  The Evans-Novak Political Report is packed with details and assessments.  Their guess - Dems pick up 19 House seats for Speaker-elect Pelosi and 2 Senate seats; Chris Shays loses in CT-IV; Kyl, Talent, Allen, Corker, and Chafee hold their Senate seats, and Steele joins the Rep ranks in MD.

Comments

[BumperStickerist]

My Bold Prediction

Republicans hold both House and Senate.

---------------------------------------

The short reason is that the Left collectively lacks organization, clarity of purpose, and an ability not to trip over itself on its way to the Polls. Plus they have an instinct to go for the capillary.

Contrast that with Rove.

The wonder will be that there was any wonder at all.

-

[Florence Schmieg]

I'm with you BumperStickerist. Crossing my fingers. Am available for taunting if the predicted wave happens.

[maryrose]

I believe the scenario painted in this thread. I do think Allen wins and the upset of the night is Steele in Maryland. Missouri has no reason to get rid of Talent and Tennessee is going for Corker. Chafee is known throughout RI and will hold on there. He looked confident yesterday.

[Sue]

I hate to wait. ::grumpy::

Can Rove hit the fast forward button on that gizmo he has and make it tonight all ready?

I feel like I do before a Cowboys game. I hope I feel like I do after a Cowboys win tonight. Pleasantly surprised. ::grin::

[clarice]

Dean looked like a robot l;ast night on tv--as if he'd trained every muscle in his face to act as if it had been botoxed. His ass is grass if expectations aren't met.

[Sue]

If you look at the charting on RCP, the republicans that had momentum have either stalled or are dropping. If you believe polls.

[hit and run]

::grumpy::

...

::grin::

Whew, when I first saw the grumpy I got a little worried. My day doesn't really start until I've had my first cup of coffee and read my first Sue grin.

[Sue]

H&R,

I come after a cup of coffee? Well...hmpfff...

::grin::

[maryrose]

Hit and Run:
I agree, we have to have the "Sue" grin each day to get our morning started.

[Sue]

My ::grin:: gets me in trouble at other sites. Even here, there are those who hate that I use it. You can see that it bothers me. ::grin::

[hit and run]

Chronologically, they are simultaneous. Literarily, I placed the cup of coffee before the Sue grin so that the Sue grin ended the sentence for emphasis.

[Specter]

I know Scary Larry doesn't like your :grin:. LOL

[clarice]

The anecdotal stories from voters are always telling to me. Lucianne has a running thread.So do others.

I think the R GOTV in Pa is much more effective than anyone could imagine.

[clarice]

"Obi Wan emphasizes that we can't completely rule out the possibility of the Democrats still winning the House and having a good night. But there is a big, clear wave breaking the Republicans' way in just about every competitive race coast to coast, and it could mean results very, very different from what the Washington crowd expected. "
http://tks.nationalreview.com/

[maryrose]

Santorum was on Imus this morning and said that there are inner polls that show a 4 point difference between him and Casey. We shall see. What an upset if Santorum prevailed. I feel particularly bad about this race as I do about DeWine in Ohio. I voted on new machines and did have to show an ID.

[Sue]

I know Scary Larry doesn't like your :grin:.

Yeah. But he doesn't like me...period. He thinks my ::grin:: is mocking him. It isn't, but if he wants to think it...who am I to dissuade him of that notion?

::grin::

[clarice]

On running threads and from NRO's Lopez whose getting ground reports, I'm getting more and more optimistic about Penn.

[cboldt]

-- "What an upset if Santorum prevailed. I feel particularly bad about this race as I do about DeWine in Ohio." --

The races I wish weren't close: Santorum, Talent, Steele. I am indifferent on the fates of DeWine and Chafee.

Off topic: Matthew Madden channels a conclusion that I reached a year ago. O'Connor's "retirement date contingent on confirmation of a successor" is a bad, bad thing.

[Bob]

Sue lets just call it a real good ::grin'n tonic:

The good news as of today, is that whatever happens the Dems did not do anywhere near as good as they were expected... remember the summer predictions.

Having said that, I believe that Allen will win, and Steele will be the winner as well in Maryland. With Lieberman beating the snot out of Dead Lamo, I don't think the Dems can claim any major victory...

We've got everything to gain and not much to lose at this point... ::grin::

My only regret is losing the JF'n Kerry to kick around over the next 2 years. Let's hope he proves himself to be the ass he really is, and never go away. ::2X grin::

[clarice]

From Red State:
BREAKING: Philly Fraud
By Erick Posted in 2006 — Comments (29) / Email this page » / Leave a comment »
In wards 7, 19, 51 in Philly, PA, the crowds are going wild. Inside several voting locations, individuals have poured white out onto the polling books and the poll workers are allowing voters to go into the polls and vote without first registering. Several individuals are on hand demanding that voters vote straight Democrat.

RNC lawyers have headed to the scene of the incidents, which are occurring in mostly hispanic precinct locations. The District Attorney has also been contacted.

More from the ground: Reports of voter intimidation by son-in-law of Philadelphia City Commissioner in 19th Ward. Carlos Mantos is not allowing Republican poll watchers with valid poll-watching certificates monitor polling places.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Maryrose I just posted this in the other thread thinking I was posting it here. DeWine was on Fox just now reporting that Repub. precincts in Ohio are already reporting huge turnouts. Cinci area in particular. Is this good or bad?

[Bob]

If you want to see what upsets a moonbat, take a look at this over at the DU.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x2602932>Ostracized At Poll This Morning...

It's so sad that these people are always looking for a fight... and then they are so insecure, they need to tell their friends how tough they they were in the face of oppression. Some oppression!

[Sara (Squiggler)]

One lonely b****h, all by herself. No professional sign makers. Pathetic.

Marginalized Mama

[Sue]

Bob,

What is it with Florida democrats? They are the whiniest of the lot...

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Fox reporting VA turnout expected to be 65% or higher. Already very very high.

[Sue]

Look at http://www.drudgereport.com/>Drudge's homepage. If republicans pull this off, the charges of stolen election are going to ring out from every corner of moonbatville.

[clarice]

Reports of projected 70% turnout in Missouri.

[hit and run]

Is it just me - or does having 3 posts this morning really just confuse things?

I wish we could just to settle on one thread and have all comments there.

I'm blog-ADD and can't keep up.

Halp me Jon Carry!

[maryrose]

Sara:
Big turnout down in the Cincinnati area is very good news for DeWine. DeWine has been endorsed by practically all the big newspapers. Brown is Way too liberal for our state of Ohio. The big republican strength is in southern Ohio where Cincinnati is located. Cleveland on the other hand is a more liberal area especially on the east side. I live on the west side of Cleveland in a western suburb.

[maryrose]

hit and run;
You are cracking me up today. I've virtually given up trying to get any work done today. I really enjoy reading these threads and getting information from around the country! This is so exciting!

[clarice]

Someone posted on AJ's "Just reported on WBAL (Baltimore - MD), voter turnout currently at 10%. Need Baltimore to get to 55/60 % for a Democratic win so they say."

If true, and it holds--good news for Ehrlich and Steele.

[Sue]

Halp me Jon Carry!

LOL!

[hit and run]

I've virtually given up trying to get any work done today.

Ya rookie. I have tried to not get work done for years.

Yes, this is exciting. Seriously, this is almost as attention grabbing as 04. A few months ago I woulda never thunk that.

[topsecretk9]

WOW...there was actually a line at my polling place - which I've never experienced...there is a weird local measure that has people a little peeved so that might explain it...was warmed that a nice young man in front of me was caring his GOP material to leaf through before voting.

The ONLY oddity was an asian man who hollered out "I have to wait!!!?????" sort of confused...until the poll worker explained, only until a booth opened up. I think he thought ONLY HE had to wait for some reason. I don't think people like to wait....for anything.

[clarice]

(NRO the Corner)Florida: Everything I Hear Is Good [Kathryn Jean Lopez] Posted at 12:11 PM
for Negron. People expecting him to pull it off. (Which strikes me as remarkable and all the doing of that great "Punch Foley" campaign.)

Also hearing optimism for Katherine Harris ... keeping her House seat.

From DeWine Watchers [Kathryn Jean Lopez]

For what it's worth:

We're hearing of strong turnout in GOP-leaning districts. 100% chance of rain in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) until 6 PM. We're also hearing as many as 40 precincts have switched to paper ballots because of staffing and technical issues related to electronic voting.*********

(I read this as the R's retaining Harris' Cong seat, not her winning the Senate seat..I find this unsurprising..Her old Dist is overwhelmingly R).

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I won't be voting for a few hours yet. My d-i-l had a dead battery this morning and walked down here to borrow my car to go to work, so I'm stuck until she goes to lunch about 1 pm. I don't think there is much in doubt out here. Arnold will win by landslide, Mary Bono my Congresswoman expected to have a walk away easy win. Only biggie might be whether Jerry Brown gets elected AG of Calif. over Pachoogian.

[topsecretk9]

--Look at Drudge's homepage. If republicans pull this off, the charges of stolen election are going to ring out from every corner of moonbatville.--

So many Democrats and liberals have expressed win at all cost I fully expect the townhouse call has circulated all the dirty trick tactics in the book...and then cry wolf...

See here

http://confederateyankee.mu.nu/archives/204098.php

[cathyf]

I wish we could just to settle on one thread and have all comments there.

Well, I suppose it depends on what your model of JOM is. Is this Tom's blog, where he pontificates of a few subjects of interest to him, and then deigns to allow us peons to comment on each of those topics? Or is this just one big party at Tom's place, where we gab on about whatever we damn well please, and Tom's topic starters are like the beer and munchies?

[clarice]

ts9, I think only the crazies buy into this--for everyone else it's a yawn. (Altho Brazile's comments indicate it's backfiring. She said so many Black voters have bought this line and believe their votes won't count, the party is having a hard time getting them to the polls. Karma.)

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Got this link just now in an email. Interesting analysis Moonbats vs Wingnuts

[Daddy]

Anybody know if that brave, brave non-partisan gunslinger, Dick Armitage, got a chance to vote before heading to Australia to badmouth America?

[Jane]

Ya rookie. I have tried to not get work done for years.

Another line of the day!

[hit and run]

Well, I suppose it depends on what your model of JOM is. Is this Tom's blog...

Oh, clearly Tom serves at the pleasure of clarice. As do we all. :)

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Wow, OT, but interesting. Non-voting block stock holders mounting attack on Sulzberger/NYT:

Morgan Stanley to NYT Board: Enough is Enough

[clarice]

I wish! I'm just the mop up gal.

[danking70]

"Also hearing optimism for Katherine Harris ... keeping her House seat."

Wha Huh?

That idea is so crazy that it just might work.

Sweet delicious irony. LOL

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Her House seat should be safe, I don't think her Senate bid is going to make it.

[clarice]

danking, that's badly written by Lopez..I'm sure she meant the Harris seat would stay Rep.

FORD FAMILY FRAUD:

"Dems will go to court this afternoon to ask for polls to stay open

By ANITA WADHWANI
Staff Writer

Lawyers with the Tennessee Democratic Party will file suit early this afternoon asking that voting hours be extended due to reports of infrastructure problems, a party spokesman said.

The party has received reports that some precincts lacked enough voting machines, voting machines that are not working, long lines and delays in the openings of polling paces, said the spokesman Mark Brown.

Brown said he did not yet know which court party lawyers would file suit in, but said it would be in Davidson County at about 1:30 p.m.

Lawyers had not yet decided whether they would ask that all polls remain open later or ask only that polls in certain regions of the state be open later. "

(Translation: Looking for a judge the Fords can count on.)

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Newsbusters announcement:

This just sounds too good to be true: Dan Rather's going to be an election pundit tonight....on the fake-news special on Comedy Central. No, really. (There's no mention if the whole hour is being sponsored by Kinko's Copies.) Gail Shister reports in the Philadelphia Inquirer that the CBS/Viacom offshoot is rolling out the red carpet for the disgraced CBS anchorman:

This is not a joke.

Dan Rather will analyze election results with Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert tonight at 11 on Comedy Central's live, hour-long Indecision 2006 special.

"It's a risk, I guess, but what the hell," says Rather, who covered every national election since 1962 for CBS before being drop-kicked in June. Now he's global correspondent for Mark Cuban's HDNet.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Some precincts in PA have already announced they will keep polls open an extra hour because of snafus in early morning. Reports problems in Philly and Pittsburgh.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Oops, forgot to include that one of the problems is not enough ballots for the high turnout.

[clarice]

Steele Set for Victory?
By Erick

If early indications in Maryland and GOP rumblings can be believed, it looks like the GOP will hold on to the U.S. Senate thanks to the election of Michael Steele to the United States Senate.

Several top Republicans in DC are quietly saying they expect Michael Steele to win and Georgia House District 12 to flip to the GOP
(Red State)

[Sara (Squiggler)]

10,000 lawyers mobilized and ready in Ohio according to Fox.

[Lurker]

Anyone know how TX-22 is doing?

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Yes! Clarice, good news!!!

[maryrose]

In every single election dems go to the courts to extend voting hours. In 2000 it was Missouri which probably cost Ashcroft his Senate seat. In 2004 there was some flap in Ohio and Philly. Now it's Tennessee and it is conveniently in tight race states to try and accomodate lazy voters that can't get up in the morning and vote. I am so tired of this obvious ploy to swing elections a certain way. Even the fact that they don't quite know which precincts to target cries to heaven. It reminds me of Al Gore cherry-picking his dem counties in 2000 where he thought he could pick up the most votesin the recount. Well that tactic backfired big time on him.

[hit and run]

from byron york at nro

WRITE-INS FOR TOM DELAY'S OLD SEAT [Byron York]

Just talked with the manager of the Shelley Sekula-Gibbs campaign, the Republican running the write-in campaign for Tom DeLay's old seat in the 22nd District of Texas. The big concern is whether voters will be able to handle the write-in process. In some places in the district, they write Sekula-Gibbs' name the old-fashioned way — that's hard enough — but in many precincts, voters will use a machine in which they have to use a wheel to select a letter, then press ENTER, and then turn to the next letter, press ENTER again, and so forth. In other words, they have to go S-ENTER-H-ENTER-E-ENTER-L…etc. The good news for Sekula-Gibbs is that Texas law requires only that election officials be able to determine the voter's intent, so that misspellings of her rather complicated name will be OK, if officials can determine she's the one the voter chose.

"Only a couple of people said it was a little challenging," campaign manager Lisa Dimond tells me. "We've had a lot of people come in and say it's not bad. We've sent out so much information on how to do it, when you go to the polling place, you see people walking in with our instruction sheet."

Some polls have suggested that, were her name on the ballot, Sekula-Gibbs would win easily in the Republican district. But there's no telling what will happen when voters try to write in her name with the voting machine.

[Lurker]

I agree. So far great news for the Senate since the Senate is the one that decides who will replace the next Supreme Court justice as well as nominating all the other judges AND BOLTON!!

YEAH!!

[Lurker]

Thanks, hit and run! Yeah, I had to turn the wheel, then hit enter per letter. Then I went back to the special election to make sure I spelled her last name properly. I really misspelled her last name so bad that I had to turn the wheel and enter one letter at a time. Once I got her last name spelled correctly, I confirmed it. Later I went to check on her first name. EGADS!! I misspelled her first name...S-H-E-L-L-Y!!

Think it's enough to convince them my voting intent, huh?

[clarice]

(NRO):Kathryn has a bit in the Corner about the Ken Mehlman conference call. Here's the gist, not quite exact quotes

Mehlman: We think we’re going to have high turnout today. In heavily Republican areas, we’re seeing strong turnout… Remember that 4 out of 10 voters are voting early and absentee in Tennessee; Republicans have a big lead in that. It was a big effort of both the Corker and Ford campaign.

I asked the Chairman if there was anything he was worried about today, any factor that had him sweating.

He said it’s the “environment overall, it’s a very tough environment for the party.” He said the Democrats are fired up, and the Republican base is fired up. He emphasized that what he was reporting so far wasn’t necessarily “the good news” but specific facts early and absentee voting in some states, reports of voter fraud and intimidation, and why exit polls need to be kept in perspective (terrible, heavily weighted towards the Democrats in 2000, 2002, 2004.) “Right now, not much news at all because it’s early.”

Hugh asked if there was any overnights from the races Rove was spotlighting yesterday, particularly Montana and Michigan.

Mehlman said both continue to be very favorable; both closed late, Michigan particularly.

He said the thing to remember about Montana was that two weeks ago, when Conrad Burns was down, the remaining undecided were 2 to 1 Republicans.

Boy, there’s a relevant fact that got ignored in coverage of that race.

[Don]

"Several top Republicans in DC are quietly saying they expect Michael Steele to win"??

Why are they saying this quietly?

[clarice]

Don't want to keep R's from coming out and voting in the rain?

Why is the NYTs downplaying the hyped kool-aide they've been pouring for two months?

[Larry]

Michael Moore’s pep talk to rouse lefties: “While the rest of us go about our day today, tens of thousands of Republican volunteers are knocking on doors, making phone calls, and lining up rides to the polls. They’re not sleeping, they’re not eating, they’re not even watching Fox News. A day without Fox News? That’s right, that’s how insanely dedicated they are.”

LOL

[Sara (Squiggler)]

In Texas, why can't they just enter Gibbs and be done with it. That should be enough to indicate intent.

[maryrose]

2 to 1 in favor of repubs in Montana. That fact is HUGE and should not have been overlooked by the media. It explains the late surge of Burns and the voters' desire to keep an incumbent senator who has worked for them and not forgotten his roots in office.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I don't know why Moore would say that. Fox has been shilling for the dems. all week. All day yesterday they blathered on about Florida and the gubernatorial candidate Crist? ignoring Bush, etc. Bleat bleat bleat. And they've given Ford so much free publicity it has been sickening to watch. Any story about Repubs. has been reported from the negative side. CNN in some cases has been more balanced.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Lieberman says he is liberated and not beholden to any party or interest group and he intends to stay that way.

[maryrose]

Fox has tried to be fair and balanced and I think they want viewers to choose Fox which is much better than the partisan dem shill organization of MSNBC. Ford did get a lot of free air time but FOX did show Ford showing up at Corker's press conference and getting in his face. That alone cost Ford 5 points.

[Gary Maxwell]

Lurker

Unless you spelled her name Lampson, you should be confortable that your vote registered as you intended. I hope she trounces the cad, it will serve the Democrats right for trying to disenfranchise the voters in TX 22. " count every vote" my ass...

[Sara (Squiggler)]

O'Reilly has been tough on Pelosi as he seems to really think her ideas are to be feared. Cavuto and Shep Smith are pro-dem anti-war. Combs of H&C has been give more air time in the last week than I've seen him get in a year, all for dems. I wrote to them a couple of days ago and told them if the Dems. take the House, I will blame Fox.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Oh, my gawd, cars floating away in the State of Washington. It is really bad there. Looks like New Orleans.

[clarice]

Long Election Week in Maryland? [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
A source close to Steele tells me they woudn't be surprised — "a very good chance" — if we don't know the results of the Senate race there tonight. Evidently 200,000 absentee ballots, and they won't be counted until Thursday, source says.

[maryrose]

Gary:
Agreed. Once again dems went to court to keep Delay's name in. Meanwhile DeLay did not get a speedy trial and would still not have justice at this point if he was still running. Earle will have to drop these charges soon because they have no merit. Meanwhile that asshat Bell who filed the original lawsuit is going to lose his bid for the governorship.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

California Conservative, cross-posted at Let Freedom Ring. PREDICTIONS (seem alittle wishful to me):

Let’s start with the House since that’s where most pundits are predicting doom for the GOP. I’ll work off the RCP chart provided here:

GOP Seats
Leans Dem (13)
AZ-8: Open (Kolbe)
Gary Sez: Graf wins on immigration issue. Tucson’s budget getting hit hard paying for schooling, health care of illegal immigrants.
CO-7: Open (Beauprez)
Gary Sez: Definitely vulnerable. This could stay in GOP column with strong GOTV operation, which wouldn’t surprise me.
OH-18: Open (Ney)
Gary Sez: Joy Padgett is a fiscal conservative who’d keep taxes low, spending under control and who’s right on the immigration issue. Additional factor: Ney won in 04 with 65+ percent of vote. Demographics still matter. GOP Hold.
PA-7: Weldon
Gary Sez: This is likely lost.
IN-8: Hostettler
Gary Sez: Hostettler’s had a history of close races & he’s always won. Will this be the year he doesn’t win? Possible but don’t count Hostettler out because of the GOP’s GOTV operation.
IA-1: Open (Nussle)
Gary Sez: I suspect that this will tip in the GOP’s favor. The only reliable polling on this race was one done for the NRCC in early October showing Whalen leading by 8. Since then, the election nationwide is trending strongly GOP so I see no reason to believe Braley will win this one.
NY-24: Open (Boehlert)
Gary Sez: Arcuri’s got serious ethical problems, meaning he’s fighting uphill at best. I’m betting this is a GOP Hold.
NY-20: Sweeney
Gary Sez: GOP Hold here. Sienna ran 2 polls; 10/17/06 Siena College R +14 53% 39%; 11/2/06 Siena College D +3 46% 43% 628 LV. Almost all other polling showed Sweeney with solid leads. I also find it impossible to believe that an incumbent loses 17 points in 2 weeks without making a noteworthy gaffe or via scandal. That hasn’t happened.
PA-10: Sherwood
Gary Sez: Likely Dem pickup although President Bush’s stop put the wood to Democrats on taxes and terrorism.
TX-22: Open (DeLay)
Gary Sez: Sekula-Gibbs wins this one.
NC-11: Taylor
Gary Sez: Tight race but Taylor pulls it out.
OH-15: Pryce
Gary Sez: Likely Dem pickup.
FL-16: Open (Foley)
Gary Sez: GOP enjoys punching Foley for Joe. Joe wins.

Toss Up (14)
NH-2: Bass
Gary Sez: GOP Hold
IN-2: Chocola
Gary Sez: Most polling shows Chocola trailing within MOE. A strong GOTV effort will put Chocola over the top.
FL-13: Open (Harris)
Gary Sez: This is still Jeb’s state & he’s built a model GOTV operation. GOP Hold.
NM-1: Wilson
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents tipping GOP’s way after Kerry’s “botched joke.”
OH-1: Chabot
Gary Sez: Might be pulled under by GOP scandals. If they don’t, Chabot wins this.
CT-4: Shays
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
IN-9: Sodrel
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
IL-6: Open (Hyde)
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
PA-6: Gerlach
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
AZ-5: Hayworth
Gary Sez: Hayworth wins by solid margin, probably in 6-8 point range.
CT-5: Johnson
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’ Also being helped by GOP voting for Lieberman.
CA-11: Pombo
Gary Sez: GOP Hold. Independents fleeing Democratic Party over Kerry’s ‘botched joke.’
OH-2: Schmidt
Gary Sez: Ran a lackluster campaign for special election but won over lots of people for giving John Murtha what for about Marines never quit. Schmidt wins this one.
KY-3: Northup
Gary Sez: Anne Northup keeps winning.

Democratic Seats
Toss Up (2)
GA-12: Barrow
Gary Sez: GOP win.
GA-8: Marshall
Gary Sez: GOP win.

Gary’s Special: Diana Irey boots Murtha, winning 53-55% of vote. Congratulations, Diana, on being this year’s Goliath-killer.

Overall, I see the GOP holding losses to a minimum in the House, possibly as little as -2.

Senate:
Missouri: Talent vs. McCaskill
Gary Sez: Talent wins because of superior GOTV operation and because ACORN’s voter registration fraud was caught.
Montana: Tester vs. Burns
Gary Sez: Burns wins with a furious finish. Taxes & judicial confirmations key issues in this race.
Virginia: Allen vs. Webb
Gary Sez: Allen wins tight match.
Maryland: Cardin vs. Steele
Gary Sez: Congratulations Sen.-Elect Steele. GOP pickup.
RI: Chafee vs. Whitehouse
Gary Sez: Chafee wins because of Kerry glitch and great GOTV effort.
Michigan: Stabenow vs. Bouchard
Gary Sez: Bouchard in a late night win. Rove told Hugh that “Bouchard in particular, is a very attractive candidate for the Senate, because he’s the sheriff of Oakland County, the large suburban, one of the large suburban counties outside of Detroit. It’s the quintessential swing county in the state. If a Republican wins statewide, it is because they do well in Oakland County. He’s the sheriff. He also previously served in the legislature, where he was an accomplished legislator. So he understands the legislative process, and he’s got a big suburban base.”
Ohio: DeWine vs. Brown
Gary Sez: Brown shouldn’t have a shot but likely will win.
Pennsylvania: Santorum vs. the ultimate nothing
Gary Sez: The Beltway pundits say this race is over but they haven’t talked at all about Santorum’s ‘Gathering Storm’ series of speeches, coupled with massive GOP voter registration drives wherever he’s gone. I can’t write Sen. Santorum off.
Minnesota: Klobuchar vs. the Good Kennedy
Gary Sez: Minnesota’s GOTV operation is hitting on all cylinders and Klobuchar’s imploding because she won’t expand beyond focus-grouped soundbite answers. GOP gain.
Tennesee: Ford vs. Corker
Gary Sez: Ford’s had too many implosions. GOP Hold.

Senate: GOP gains 2.

If the election were held next Tuesday and if the GOP’s momentum could be sustained another week, we’d see gains in both houses of Congress. Oh well.

[hit and run]

From NRO

THEY'RE PUNCHING FOLEY FOR JOE [Byron York]

Just talked to Todd Harris, spokesman for the Joe Negron campaign, trying to win the old Mark Foley seat in the 16th District of Florida. No reports of people having trouble with the concept of voting for Foley in order to vote for Negron, Harris says. He attributes that to heavy media coverage and discussion about the ballot in recent weeks. "At this stage, you would have had to been living under a rock or coming down from a four-week bender to not know how the ballot works in this district," Harris tells me. "I would say if there are 100 people who show up who aren't aware of it, then they probably aren't aware of Mark Foley, either."

Good thing I'm not voting in FL-16. I haven't been living under a rock, but on the other hand.....hiccup....ohhh, my head....

[Gary Maxwell]

Bell? That is the punchline for a joke here. Chris Bell is going to get a shellacking. The Dems might late rally and put him ahead of the the two independents but even that is not for sure. He will finally beat Undecided, but only because those folks supporting Undecided all went to someone not named Chris Bell. A true joke.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I've seen that 50-55% figure on Irey over Murtha from several sources. Maybe because I want Murtha defeated so bad, I want to believe it, but this is the race I'm holding my breath on, keeping my fingers crossed, praying, and then preparing myself to be disappointed.

If Irey wins, it will be the biggest overall Dem. defeat in the country and the sound you hear will be the Dem. party crashing and burning for good.

[clarice]

I contributed to Irey and love her, and have been hearing from the ground that she was going to win.

Cal Conservative forgot the Hawaii race that Rove is so optimistic about.

I want the D party to explode and reshape itself completely..But mostly I want the fake pollsters out of business.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

In South Carolina, even the governor has to show ID or be turned away from the polls. The SC governor forgot his ID, pollworker did the job and turned him away. Funny.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Here in So. Cal. the majority of the population are active duty or retired military and Kerry's remarks played VERY VERY BIG, so it is hard for me to judge just how much they had an effect in the national scene. Here it was all negative all the time.

[danking70]

"I want the D party to explode and reshape itself completely. But mostly I want the fake pollsters out of business."

I'll second both those thoughts...

[Sara (Squiggler)]

OT -- http://www.floppingaces.net/2006/11/07/911-surveillance-video-released/

ABC has a video up on their website that is the surveillance video for the planners of 9/11:

Surveillance video of the World Trade Center, the New York Stock Exchange, Liberty Plaza and other downtown street scenes was released by Scotland Yard today shortly after the likely cameraman was sentenced to a minimum of 40 years in prison.

Dhiren Barot and a friend took the video in April 2001, just a few months before the 9/11 attacks, though prosecutors did not charge Barot with direct involvement in the attacks.

But Barot clearly had his eye on the World Trade Center as a target..

Much more at the link.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Colorado asking judge to keep polls open an extra 2 hours to accommodate large turnout.

[topsecretk9]

LOL

--Re: Robocalls [John Podhoretz]
For once, I am delighted by liberal whining. If they get rid of robocalls, unconstitutional or not, I will be a happy man. I received five of them on Thursday from Robert DeNiro, suggesting I vote for Hillary Clinton. By the fifth call, I was asking Bob whether he was going to make a third "Meet the Fockers" movie.
Posted at 2:29 PM---

[Gary Maxwell]

Stephen Colbert apparently quoting as saying that the "D" after the candidates name means "dont vote for him." Pay attention Jon Carrie. That is what a joke sounds like.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Via Redstate:

The Tennessee Democrat Party is reported to be seeking a court order to keep the polls open late, citing technical difficulties and late-opening polling locations -- both in primarily African-American precincts -- as their rationale.

Another report out of the state asserts that at least one poll worker has been arrested for casting votes for dead people.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I use my cell phone almost exclusively but my landline is a Vonage Internet line. I don't answer it unless caller ID is someone I know. This morning I cleared my Voicemail and discovered 14 Robocall messages were left in the last 48 hours. 14 Yikes!

[maryrose]

Stop keeping these polls open. It's starting to become the only way dems win is by giving them more time. Get out of bed and vote.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Two of them said, Vote Dem. defeat Bush! LOL.

[anonymous]

I come after a cup of coffee. Well...

::grin::

Posted by: Sue | November 07, 2006 at 06:58 AM

[Style note: In English, we 'disabuse' him (or her, or you) of a notion; we do not "dissuade him of that notion."]

Anyway, I'd love to hang around and listen to your nerves jangle, but I will have to forego that dubious pleasure for now ...

Good luck, and have a nice day.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

AJ reports:

Indiana, PA Will Be Late Reporting

By AJStrata on 2006/2008 Elections

Glitches in setting up the voting machines in Indiana [County, PA] have made it necessary to keep polls open in some areas to 9:00 PM - making the supposed early indicator races now much later.

In one Indiana county, a court order will keep polls open until nearly nine o’clock tonight. An apparent computer error kept voters from casting ballots in 75 precincts there this morning.

The county clerk says there was a programming error in the cards needed to start the machines. She says all of machines are working now, although the polls are staying open later because of the delay.

In Indiana’s largest county, paper ballots had to be used in more than a-hundred precincts due to scattered problems. Officials said poll workers had trouble setting up some voting machines.

************************

I'm not sure if all of Indiana county is Murtha's district, but I know at least a portion of it is.

[maryrose]

Something is really wrong when that many polling places don't have their act together. Didn't they pre-test these machines? This sounds like some kind of fishy Chicago operation from the 60's.

[Sue]

[Style note: In English, we 'disabuse' him (or her, or you) of a notion; we do not "dissuade him of that notion."]

Ain't that the truth? We uns down here in Bush country ain't gotta clue whether to use disabuse or dissuade. Why, I thought disabuse was what you asked tried to get your husband to stop doing. You know, as in 'if disabuse don't stop I'm gonna see a lawyer'.

You freak. I feel sorry for you, you know.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I just talked to the Irey campaign. They say that early reports from poll workers say turnout is moderate to moderately high. They also said that the problems with setting up machines have been solved and everything is running smoothly. Recommends logging into WTAE.COM for best election coverage results for the Murtha/Irey and PA results.

[topsecretk9]

This via NROSixers -

Mehlman chooses paper
[Greg Pollowitz 11/07 03:11 PM]
From TalkingPointsMemo:
How the other half votes, from TPM Reader DP:

I was directly behind RNC Chair Ken Mehlman this morning when I came out to vote. He lives up my street on Capitol Hill. When a poll worker asked whether he wanted to vote on an electronic machine or use a traditional pencil and paper ballot, he chose the latter.

So Mehlman won't drink from the poison cup? Actually, DP says the line for paper ballots was much shorter than for the electronic machines.

-------

If these dreaded machines should be abolished and serve to rig the election, why are so many people choosing to WAIT in a line to use them vs. the shorter line paper ballot?

Just curious.

[topsecretk9]

Sue...

Ignore. Anon thinks he/she is adding to the dialogue of ideas by obsessing over grammar, word usage and typo's. It's always a sign of strength, don't you think?

[Sue]

Top,

I'm in good company using dissuade instead of disabuse. I'm not really concerned, but you know me and snark. ::grin::

[anonymous]

Shall we take it that the inability to express oneself clearly and properly is (at least in "Bush Country") "... a sign of strength?"

[Sue]

Yeah. It all goes back to boots and piss. If you were as intelligent as you think you are you wouldn't need the instructions.

[anonymous]

You see? -- there's the problem, honey. It is you, of course, who is in need of instruction.