Lame Duck? Lame Albatross

Following the election night debacle George Bush is not a lame duck - he is a lame albatross.  However, he is a lame albatross with the power to hire a Supreme Court Justice or fire Don Rumsfeld, so Republicans will  be have incentives to pay him a small amount of heed.

As to 2008 - Presidential candidates, especially Republicans, love to run as outsiders who will sweep Washington clean.  Consequently, although any candidate would welcome the backing of Bush's fundraising machine, his endorsement will probably have somewhat less value (but Time Will Tell!).

As non-participants in the Washington melt-down, Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani are well-positioned as the Anybody But McCain candidate.  And since TradeSports has not forgotten Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, we won't either.

Current odds of gaining the Rep nomination:  McCain is at 53%; Romney, 14%; Giuliani, 13%; Huckabee, 8%.  Here is a Weekly Standard profile of Romney - smart, a wildly successful businessman with extraordinary executive talent, and conservative - could work for me.  Since I also like McCain and Giuliani and have been impressed by Huckabee every time I see him promoting his diet book, I am strangely confident.

And FWIW, Huckabee was quoted as noting that a Republican wash-out in the elections might prompt the party to look for fresh faces and new voices, thereby cracking open his Window of Opportunity.

Also-rans are led by Condi Rice at 4% - she is a great American with a great biography, but she won't get my support, mainly because of the dysfunction in the National Security Council leading up to the Iraq war and before 9/11.

UPDATE:  Hmm, I won't need to wate time amplifying and expanding my thoughts on why Rumsfeld needs to go.  Don, we hardly knew ye - good-bye.  (I heard Dan Drezner yelling from here).

Comments

[Sue]

McCain will only get my vote if he is the only one not named Hillary.

[Robb Allen]

"However, he is a lame albatross with the power to hire a Supreme Court Justice or fire Don Rumsfeld"

Well, 50% of that just happened it appears.

[Dale in Atlanta]

rummy is leaving is bullshit; it won't appease the party of Traitors!

it sends all the wrong signals, to the wrong people at the wrong time...

UBL/Al Qaeda, the Jihadis are dancing on our graves, and laughing!

The Leftotraitors will not stop at Rummy, they'll be after Cheney to step down, and impeach Bush....

This is just bullshit...

[Patrick]

good opportunity for the Republicans to focus on two key issues that won it for them in '94: Institutional reform (term limts [dead now], earmarks, and other nonsense that goes on over at Cap. Hill) and spending control. Gingrich demonstrated that those two goals are inextricably linked, but then got out-played by the President. The other issues: gay marriage, embryonic stem cell research, and goofy flag burning amendments are diversions.

The biggest concern is the GWOT. Short of a funding cut off, the President runs that show, and he damn well better get it together well before two years. Because if he doesn't, elections will be the LEAST of our problems.

I am not overjoyed that they lost, but if it turns the Republicans back into Republicans, a couple of years in the desert will have done some good.

[Enlightened]

Did I hear right???? Rummy has stepped down???????

[bill]

Yep, lame albatross is right. I won't vote for McCain, I will sit home.

All we do is appease the donks, when is the new permanent minority party ever going to learn anything.

We should all abandon the carcass and strat on the 2008 campaign right now. Didn't the Democrats invent the endless campaign? I think we should start with Harry Ried's excess profits and move next to Peloser hiring illegals in her orchards.

This is total bullshit ...

[Don]

Don't worry. The Army Times is not an actual Army publication.

[Other Tom]

I note that Hamas has just called for attacks on US targets. Didn't they get the word that it's a kinder, gentler US now?

When the brain-dead Stevens retires, getting a capable replacement is going to be a sticky wicket with Schumer at Judiciary. I'm hoping Maureen Mahoney gets the nod; they'd have a hard time torpedoing her.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Oh this is magnificent! Bob Gates. You gotta love it. Us "old timers' remember Bob Gates and his confirmation hearings. This should be blogger posting heaven. hehehehehe And GWB had been talking to him before the election. This was all planned. Oh Georgy Boy, you have renewed my faith.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

And Bob Gates knows where ALL the bodies are buried at the CIA. Where's Clarice, I'll bet she'll remember Bob Gates.

[Jane]

I don't remember Bob gates. Can you refresh my recollection?

[hit and run]

Bob Gates on wikipedia

JPod on the corner noted that the wikipedia entry already has his nomination to become Sec Def. Freaky.

[Daddy]

I for one am going to be interested now when I go overseas, in seeing whether CNN and BBC continue to paint America as a nation run by corrupt, fundamentalist tycoons, worthy of hatred and scorn, or if we have suddenly morphed into a kinder, gentler and wiser nation of angelic progressives. Regardless who the heck runs in 2008 or 2010 or 2012 etc, Conservative's have to seriously figure out how to counteract the worldwide megaphones of the Left.

[Geek, Esq.]

I guess Bush chose to cut and run. He's certainly no Tammy Wynette.

Better late than never.

[Pofarmer]

Daddy

I'm also wondering if the embargo on any good news from Iraq might not ease a little, now that the preferred party has taken hold.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Bob Gates was head of CIA. But more important, what has he been doing lately? :: DRUMROLL :: He has been part of the Baker/Hamilton Commission. He's been on the job. This is brilliant. Bob Gates is brilliant. He is the John Roberts of Intelligence.

From the Wikipedia link:

Gates left the CIA in 1974 to serve on the National Security Council staff but returned to the CIA in late 1979. He was named the Director of the DCI/DDCI Executive Staff in 1981, Deputy Director for Intelligence in 1982, and Deputy Director of Central Intelligence from April 18, 1986, to March 20, 1989. He was nominated to become the Director of Central Intelligence in early 1987, but withdrew the nomination after it became clear the Senate would reject it due to controversy[2] about his role in the Iran-Contra affair.

Gates was Deputy Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs from March until August of 1989, and was Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Adviser from August 1989 until November 1991. He was nominated (for the second time) for the position of Director of Central Intelligence by President Bush on May 14, 1991, confirmed by the Senate on November 5, and sworn in on November 6, becoming the only career officer in the CIA's history (as of 2005) to rise from entry-level employee to Director. Deputy Directors during his tenure were Richard J. Kerr (from November 6, 1991, until March 2, 1992) and Adm. William O. Studeman (from April 9, 1992, through the remainder of Dr. Gates’ tenure).

During his 26-year career as an intelligence professional, he spent almost nine years on the National Security Council, serving four Presidents of both major political parties.

In 1996, his memoirs were published under the title From the Shadows: The Ultimate Insider's Story of Five Presidents and How They Won the Cold War.

Gates has been highly decorated for his service: he was the recipient of the National Security Medal and the Presidential Citizens Medal, was twice awarded the National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, and three times received the Distinguished Intelligence Medal.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

And with the resurection of Daniel Ortega and the Sandinistas back in power, how fitting that Bob Gates is now back in the forefront.

Cut and Run, are you nuts. This is an in-your-face selection. During his contentious hearings for confirmation back in the early 1990s, I remember my Mother watching the hearings and saying, "where has he been all my life?"

I was so worried when I finally fell asleep this morning and now this changes everything. This is going to be fun. Teddy Kennedy is throwing things this morning. Hehehehehe

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I didn't know what he'd been doing recently, but apparently he has never been far out of touch:

Gates became the 22nd President of Texas A&M University on August 1, 2002 following a tenure as Interim Dean of the George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M from 1999 to 2001. He has served as a member of the board of trustees of Fidelity Investments, and on the board of directors of NACCO Industries, Inc., Brinker International, Inc. and Parker Drilling Company, Inc. He also served as President of the National Eagle Scout Association during the mid-2000s.

Director of National Intelligence Offer

In February 2005, Gates wrote in a message posted on his school's website that "There seems to be a growing number of rumors in the media and around campus that I am leaving Texas A&M to become the new director of national intelligence ('Intelligence Czar') in Washington, D.C." The message said that "To put the rumors to rest, I was indeed asked to take the position, wrestled with perhaps the most difficult -- and close -- decision of my life, and last week declined the position."

[arrowhead]

Lame albatross? I don't think so. People just keep "misunderestimating" GWB.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Misunderestimating him to their peril.

[azredneck]

I note that Rasmussen has his approval rating up a couple of points--polling b4 the election. This election was not a referendum on Bush, but CONGRESS. Their approval rating is half of his!
No sane person could watch his press conference this morning and say 'cut and run'. He's the adult in charge!
I have to agree with both Sara and Patrick.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Just heard both Pelosi and Reid. They thought they'd spend the day crowing and instead they were both nearly speechless. Sure takes the wind out of their arrogant sails.

[Terrye]

Lame albatross?

Puhleaze. Bush was the first Republican I voted for and he might be the last if they nominate someone like Tancredo.

The Republicans would not have had a majority to lose if they had not rode Bush's coat tails to victory in 2002 and by and large they have done nothing but bitch and moan and whine for the last two years.

Harriet Miers, Dubai, Katrina, Immigration..just one big fat hissy fit and then a large number of them get caught doing things they know damn well they are not supposed to be doing. Bush is not responsible for Ney and Foley and Cunningham or for the tunnel vision of the immigration hardliners.

Bush is not perfect, but so far at least he has tried to keep his promises. Which is more than can be said for some other folks out there.

[Terrye]

That is true, Bush was up to 45 I think and Congress was about 28. Exactly who or what is/was the albatross?

[Pofarmer]

Ya know, it is interesting.

The press in Bush's press conference today were sure trying to make this whole election a referendum on Iraq. I don't think I quite buy that, and I think the Dems that matter know it. At least I hope they do.

[Terrye]

Iraq is the issue that they talk about the most, but in truth if it had not been for the infighting and scandals I doubt that Republicans would have lost their majority. Iraq would have been a drag on them, but they could have weathered it just like they did in 2004.

[MayBee]

Geek:I guess Bush chose to cut and run. He's certainly no Tammy Wynette.

Thank you for showing why you should never do something simply to try to appease your critics.

That is true, Bush was up to 45 I think and Congress was about 28.

Exactly! Bush may be lame or an albatross, but a Congress that had done better (social security reform, a more restrained highway bill) would have made Bush look better too.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Another thing I was reminded of this morning is that Bob Gates is very pragmatic and completely non-ideological. His analytical skills are legendary. He is not afraid to admit a misjudgment and come back and find a better solution.

[brassband]

Huckabee?

I like him personally, but he cannot be elected President. He is an ordained minister (Baptist, I believe), and the secular progressives would absolutely slaughter him if he appeared viable. There would be a lot of talk about the inappropriateness of mixing Church and state (never a problem, of course, when the candidate is Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton . . .)

[Florence Schmieg]

Terrye, I agree with you 100%. But I also see something deeper in this election. The country is changing. Republicans lost a majority of independents. Those conservatives (read NRO) who say this is because Bush (of course, it is always his fault) didn't do the more conservative thing and the congress was not conservative enough are not reading what the election results are telling them. The country does not want ideologues. They want centrists. Ideologues scare them. They haven't learned yet that the lefty ideologues are now in charge of the house. But they soon will.

[Terrye]

Florence:

People want things to get done. They are tired of the fighting and bickering. I really think that a lot of people thought that if they got rid of some Republicans and put in some Democrats they could force the two parties to work together instead of this incessant and self destructive war fare.

And NRO is full of it. I remember when these guys were falling all over themselves to be seen with Bush. Things get tough and like the rats they are....

I voted Republican in spite of those know it all pundits, not because of them.

How many elections have they ever won anyway? If they think it is so easy, why don't they run?

[Terrye]

I wonder how many independents walked away from Bush because people like Kristol had a fit over Miers or because conservatives were calling him ElPresidente or because people like Malkin acted as if he was criminally negligent during Katrina or because conservatives like George Will never supported him on Iraq.

They can say what they want, but with freinds like that Bush did not really need enemies.

[anonymous]

October 05, 2006 5:22 PM

ABC contributor Michelle Dubert reports:

While campaigning for Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) in the Philadelphia suburbs today, former President George H.W. Bush warned of a "ghastly" future for his son and other Americans if "wild Democrats" take over Congress.

"I would hate to think ... what my son's life would be like if we lose control of the Congress," said former President George Bush in a reference to Pennsylvania's two Republican Senators. "If we have some of these wild Democrats in charge of these committees, it will be a ghastly thing for our country."

"They'd be pushing through all kinds of crazy legislation," he added, "And they would be issuing the subpoenas, dragging people in just to be getting headlines."

[Cecil Turner]

Bush is not perfect, but so far at least he has tried to keep his promises.

Bush has been a ways from perfect, but the scandal-ridden, pork-driven GOP Congress wasn't even help. Not sure whether it'll be better or worse, but if it brings the Dems back on-side in the GWOT . . . .

[Jane]

What I found the most humourous today (in a day where I, at least, have been in a very bad humor) is this ongoing pledge that NOW the democrats, can come up with a solution for Iraq.

They've had 4 years to come up with a solution and there has been nary an idea among them. So now that they have a bunch of freshman, that has all changed?

Someone please let me in on how?

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Terrye is spot on. More damage was done to GWB by the likes of Malkin, Kristol, and his fair-weather supporters who have never understood Bush's pragmatic brilliance. The "can do" guys understand. The crybabies on the right are no better than the whiners on the left. Everyone on both sides said he didn't have a plan for after the election. Turns out he not only had a plan, his plan was to hire the man who has been busy designing the plan and has the bona fides to put it into place. The generals, the counterterrorism experts, the diplomats are all praising this move to replace Rummy with Dr. Gates.

[Tom Maguire]

Just heard both Pelosi and Reid. They thought they'd spend the day crowing and instead they were both nearly speechless.

Bush had his presser, made the Rumsfeld announcement, and took away their day of press attention and "New Directions for America". Score Day One for Bush.

[arrowhead]

"Iraq is the issue that they talk about the most, but in truth if it had not been for the infighting and scandals I doubt that Republicans would have lost their majority."

Terrye, Sara, Patrick, Florence (hope I didn't leave anybody out) you are absolutely RIGHT ON POINT!

The President was terrific this morning. Did he steal the energy out of this election or what? He just came out - like the courageous man that he is - faced the press, acknowledged the defeat, and announced the replacement of the Sec Def.

As Emeril Lagasse would say - BAAAMM!

I just love the guy!

Now, if the Republicans could just stop the infighting (she said with eyes crossed).

[Barney Frank]

More damage was done to GWB by the likes of Malkin, Kristol, and his fair-weather supporters who have never understood Bush's pragmatic brilliance.

Come on. This was a team effort. The Democrats essentially sat there with stupid looks on their faces and were pleased to accept what the knothead Republicans handed them. Cecil is correct that Congress was addicted to pork, but somebody put his John Hancock on those bills and never vetoed one of them. Nor did Bush show any leadership in holding their feet to the fire on weeding out the Cunninghams and Foleys. Congress and Bush together tried to buy votes with the public treasury ala the Dems. Why would Americans want phoney Democrats when they can have the real thing?
And the fact is Iraq has been fought with half measures from the start, regardless of whether it was correct to go in to begin with.

The good news is that even with a do nothing, bloated Congress feeding at the trough, an unpopular war and an extremely hostile press they lost congress by fifty thousand total votes and the Senate by ten thousand. Hardly the switch from a conservative to a liberal country some folks are describing. The country didn't switch the Republicans did. They got fat and lazy and now they have to do some road work to get in shape.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

I posted this in the other thread last night, but worth a quick reminder today. If the Senate goes Dem., and it looks like it will, the numbers will be 51-49. 2 of those 51 are declared Independents. One will always go Dem., but the other one is Joe Lieberman. Joementum has just become the most powerful man in the U.S. Senate. He will be the deciding vote, the tie breaker. We already know he is not going to vote with the "cut and run" crowd or allow either Iraq or Israel to be abandoned. We already know that he got shafted by many powerful men and women of his own party. We all know that he has been actively supported by Republicans and has very good relations with the other side of the aisle. Lieberman is a very savvy politician and he knows this morning how powerful his position has suddenly become. You gotta love it! He sticks it to the left, while perfectly positioning himself to be "da man" when it comes to the Senate. From the dung heap of politics to the top of the pile in one fell swoop. In the words of Michael Steele, "eat it" nutroots!

[boris]

but if it brings the Dems back on-side in the GWOT

Given an opportunity to take more credit then they'll deserve that would be the smart move. They don't seem to have what it takes in general unless it's ... oh what's that term ... oh yeah ... a slam dunk.

[Terrye]

Barney:

It is not Bush's job to weed out the Cunninghams and Foleys. They do not work for him, he is not the CEO. They work for the people, it is the job of the people to weed them out and it seems they did.

Now the leadership in the House could have threatened to reprimand or censure some people, but the President is not supposed to babysit Congress. Hell the Senate and House do not even do that to each other.

[Barney Frank]

Terrye,

The President is the leader of the party and it most assuredly is the job of the leader to gather a bunch of wayward dunces in the Oval office and knock their heads together. He is not Constitutionally or statutarily obliged to do it, but if he wanted to have a Republican congress to work with it would have been a mighty good idea. Instead he left a leadership vacuum and Pelosi and company filled it.

[Sue]

but if it brings the Dems back on-side in the GWOT

http://corner.nationalreview.com/>I don't think so

[Pofarmer]

The good news is that even with a do nothing, bloated Congress feeding at the trough, an unpopular war and an extremely hostile press they lost congress by fifty thousand total votes and the Senate by ten thousand. Hardly the switch from a conservative to a liberal country some folks are describing.

Agreed.

[Pofarmer]

Great, their next assinine healthcare reform is up their, too. We need a thumbs down smiley.;0(

[bluestaterepublican]

Thank your including Mike Huckabee in your post. There is much more to Mike than just his stance on public health issues, as Americans will learn in the coming months.
Warmest regards,
BSR

[richard mcenroe]

If nothing else, kids, we witnessed history. Hastert and Frist have demonstrated the most embarrassingly inept leadership in political history since Jefferson Davis couldn't get the powder mills to stay open on Sunday...

[windansea]

here's the silk purse

Bush, Cheney and Gates are all freed up to just concentrate on WOT

Let congress squabble and look like fools, if i were them I'd just get down with Al Queda

[r flanagan]

Not a value judgement , just a statement of facts: Lieberman has no incentive to caucus with the reps.

If he is one of a 51vote dem
majority he gets a powerful chairmanship.
If he is one of a 50 vote rep grouping , Cheney breaks the tie, and Joe gets a chairmanship but it is of a hamstrung
50/50 committee . At least that's the case
if the agreement is something like Jan 2001- I know the reps have said that they don't consider that a precedent but it will become one.

Which role would Joe prefer ? A half a loaf is better than none , but only half as good as a whole loaf. Even on grounds of principle Joe would prefer a powerful position from which to act rather than a
half powerful position.

[Sara (Squiggler)]

Windansea, yes, but pass the Bush Immigration package too. The dems. are far more favorable to it than the "my way or the highway" House Republican "purists" (AJ's word) were.

[hit and run]

On the one hand...

but in truth if it had not been for the infighting and scandals I doubt that Republicans would have lost their majority.

OK, infighting bad.

On the other hand...

NRO is full of it.

and

people like Kristol had a fit over Miers or because conservatives were calling him ElPresidente or because people like Malkin acted as if he was criminally negligent during Katrina or because conservatives like George Will never supported him on Iraq.

and

More damage was done to GWB by the likes of Malkin, Kristol, and his fair-weather supporters who have never understood Bush's pragmatic brilliance.

And on the other side of the aisle:

Cannibalizing is exactly what is about to happen.

--our friendly troll jack on another thread

I really don't want for him to be proven right.

[Pete]

While I agree that Rice did a poor job at the NSC, she was just a loyal soldier going with the flow of the others at the top. The biggest problem with the Iraq debacle was not the NSC, but rather the fact that we had a President who (despite his pedigree) was completely ignorant in world affairs and foreign cultures, who thought that he had to somehow correct the wrongs of his dad, and who thought that he had a divine mission.

But then, as in his other ventures, it is Daddy who is coming to the rescue of Jr.

[Terrye]

Pete:

BS. If dealing with Iraq was such a piece of cake why didn't Clinton do it?

[richard mcenroe]

Hey, he had the 1998 resolution, didn't he? What more needed to be done? We had the piece of paper...

[Pete]

Terrye - I never said Iraq was a piece of cake. I said that Bush (Jr.) was an ignoramus who knew nothing about other cultures and countries (and BTW 180 degrees the opposite of his dad).

Whether or not Iraq was a piece of cake - Brent Scowcroft (no leftie) warned against it.

[SunnyDay]

Hey hey we need to sing a new song now. We're all working together for a brighter future, right?