Look To The East

The AP gives us hope for an early night:
Eastern States Seen As Election Key

Early returns in Tuesday's midterm elections should offer hints ofwhat's to come, the first whiff of whether Democrats can seize the House and possibly the Senate.

Most of the heavily contested, down-to-the-wire races are east of the Mississippi River, in states with relatively early poll closing times. If a Democratic rout is going to happen, it will be clear from the first votes.

Showdown contests in Virginia, Rhode Island and New Jersey should be harbingers of trends in the Senate. House races in Indiana, Kentucky and Florida will provide election-watchers initial clues as to which party will control that chamber.

...
 

Early returns might telegraph who is right, and whether it will be a short night or a long one.

...

The earliest indication of a Senate trend may be seen in Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. EST, and where Republican incumbent George Allen, once expected to be easily re-elected, faces a tough challenge from Republican-turned-Democrat James Webb, an author and former Navy secretary in the Reagan administration.

"We're going to know a lot by just knowing Virginia," said Bernadette Budde, political analyst at BIPAC, a pro-business political group. "Virginia is an extreme bellwether. If Allen loses, then I don't see how it can be better than 50-50 for Republicans."

Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island and Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez in New Jersey are also in tight races whose outcome could plenty about the overall results. [Hey, what about Maryland?]

Democrats figure they can win Pennsylvania and Ohio, two states with incumbent Republican senators. Tennessee is another now-GOP Senate seat that Democrats hope to win. Polls showed it competitive up to the election.

...

In the House, the first indication of trouble for Republicans could come with the final poll closings at 7 p.m. _ in Indiana and Kentucky. Democrats fielded moderate candidates to challenge GOP incumbents in districts in the conservative Ohio River Valley.

It could be a sign of a long night for the GOP if Democrats knock off Reps. John Hostettler, Chris Chocola and Mike Sodrel in Indiana, and Ron Lewis, Anne Northup and Geoff Davis in Kentucky.

Should Democrats win in these GOP-friendly districts, it's conceivable that later in the evening they also will win clusters of seats in the liberal-leaning Northeast that are held by moderate Republicans.

Those include: GOP Reps. Nancy Johnson, Christopher Shays and Rob Simmons in Connecticut, as well as Mike Fitzpatrick, Curt Weldon, Jim Gerlach, Don Sherwood and Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania.

Comments

[Jane]

VOTE! VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

[hrtshpdbox]

Right now on Tradesports a Republican hold in the House can be bought for 19 points; if it looks like Chocola and Sodrel ARE going to prevail, that 19 points will double to at least 40, so an owner of the wager doubles his money (with no need to wait until the final result to take a profit). Even better, on Tradesports, is the proposition that Dems win more than 19.5 seats; that's trading at 63, meaning a short seller (someone who believes the Dems will win less than 20 seats) lays out $ 3.70 to get back $ 10 when all is said and done. That's the bet I've made (as well as Steele and Sekula-Gibbs), and I'm prepared to collect; the Dems are always overstated in the polls, and tomorrow John Kerry is persona non grata with everybody

[Appalled Moderate]

John Kerry...oh, yeah, he said something stupid. Wasn't that last week? And, is he running for anything? I didn't think he was...

Beware of your own new media cocoon...

[Jane]

I went to the polls. We vote at the local elementary school. Lots of cars pulling in. I'm dogged by a fire engine with lights flashing and siren in full tilt.

All the kids and voters are outside, for a fire alarm.

We get in about 20 minutes later. Lots of turnout.

There is a surprise ballot question - not publicized, that calls for forcing our represntatives to demand that Bush withdraw from Iraq.

I write myself in for Congress as no republican is on the ballot.

The end.

[hit and run]

I write myself in for Congress as no republican is on the ballot.

I may write you in on my ballot too. In every race. Even though I don't live in MA.

[Lurker]

The surprise question on the ballot?

Isn't that cheating or a violation?

What's the reaction to this question?

[Jane]

I may write you in on my ballot too.

Please do!

[Jane]

Isn't that cheating or a violation?

That was my thought. It did say it was non-binding, but still, someone is pulling a fast one.

[hit and run]

Am I spelling your last name right?

H-A-M-S-H-E-R

JUST KIDDING!!!! JUST KIDDING!!!

Please forgive me, I'm just kidding.

Please.

[Martin]

Jean "Murtha's a coward" Schmidt couldn't even get her own ballot to register this morning!

Partisanship aside-what is so difficult about getting working voting machines in this country? It's disgusting.

[Jane]

Am I spelling your last name right?

Ooooh that was LOW!

[hit and run]

I know Jane and I am truly sorry.

I keed. I keed because I love.

[cathyf]

Partisanship aside-what is so difficult about getting working voting machines in this country? It's disgusting.

But not having working voting machines is all about partisanship. The party which lost in 2000, 2002, 2004 has defined the voting tools which we had in the past as "non-working" because they didn't get them the result they wanted. So they passed laws outlawing these "non-working" tools. Which forced election boards to go looking for new tools, and a lot of those election boards, while perfectly capable of running existing tools that they have experience with, are not competent to choose new tools. And the design of these new tools was artificially limited by one party's scapegoating certain characteristics of voting tools. And so when election boards were forced, by one party, to go shopping for new election tools and those tools are mostly crap because of the need to work around one party's excuses for why they keep losing elections, well election boards had mostly crap to choose among. It's not exactly their fault that they chose crap.

[Martin]

CathyFhead, Republicans control Ohio at this moment.

If Jean Schmidt is having problems voting, it ain't the fault of Ohio Dems.

[hit and run]

If Jean Schmidt is having problems voting, it ain't the fault of Ohio Dems.

Of course not - Schmidt having "problems" is just a Rovian plot to "prove" that the "problems" are bi-partisan and not a republican plot to steal the "elections".

Double super secret reverse psychology.

[clarice]

From Scrappleface:

As Americans went to the polls this morning, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-CA, announced that if Democrats don’t achieve a “clear, immediate, overwhelming victory” in the House and the Senate, she will lead them in a “responsible redeployment” from Congress.

“We don’t want to get tied up here for years in a sectarian battle that we can’t win,” Rep. Pelosi said. “Either we get what we want now, or we cut our losses and return to our home states.”

[cboldt]

-- "There is a surprise ballot question - not publicized, that calls for forcing our represntatives to demand that Bush withdraw from Iraq."" --

Not even an example ballot printed in advance, in the local paper? Weird.

Maybe the DEMs who had that placed on the ballot aren't so sure it will deliver the result they want.

[Specter]

clarice,

Do you suppose we could get them to redeploy to say...Okinawa?

[Pofarmer]

Looks like pretty big turnout here in MO for a midterm. I'd say that the Stem cell ammendment has a lot to do with it.

[jwest]

Just returned from voting.

It’s raining in Michigan, but the township office where we vote was packed. Our district is day-glow red. We threw out a first term republican congressman in the primary because he looked like he might have known someone from his childhood who was related to someone who would think about voting moderately at some point in the future.

The democrat candidate didn’t bother to waste any money on her campaign, knowing it would be a lost cause. Apparently, the only reason they bother to run someone in opposition to the republican is the hope that he is caught molesting an animal just prior to the election.

We use Diebold optical scan machines and even with 5 ballot initiatives, the whole process only took 10 minutes.

Stabenow will not be reelected in Michigan.

[Other Tom]

Beautiful, sunny day, eighty degrees forecast, in our lovely little Southern California town. Papers predicting low turnout in the state, because no hotly contested races. Arnold seems sure to trounce the poor sacrifical lamb the Dems are running. But Arnold (a very shrewd fellow) is not really a Republican, he's something he has invented: an Arnold. And people love having a star as governor unless he turns out to be an abject fool like Jesse Ventura. (He now shows up in radio ads, identifying himself as "Governor Jesse Ventura," hawking some sports betting service.)

[maryrose]

jwest:
From your lips to God's ears regarding Stabenow. That would be another HUGE upset for dems. Looks like it's going to be a wild and wacky election day...

[JM Hanes]

Appalled:

"John Kerry...oh, yeah, he said something stupid. Wasn't that last week? And, is he running for anything? I didn't think he was..."

Well, until last week, he still thought he was running for Prez in '08. As a matter of fact, the only folks we can be pretty sure aren't running for anything are Bush and Cheney.

Are you suggesting we shouldn't listen to anybody but the candidates themselves? Good luck with that!

[Don]

I think you can add George Allen to that list.

[maryrose]

Don;
Allen will win today but as a national candidate for 08 he was never a serious contender. Keep your eye on Mitt Romney. Therein lies the future for repubs. McCain just looks too old to me.

[Daddy]

A frosty 3 degree's here in Anchorage this morning, with the polls just opening. Bets are that Republican Sara Palin, former Miss Wasilla Beauty contest winner (she's a looker!), and former 2 term mayor of that town of 5000, will defeat former 2 term Democratic Governor Tony Knolls for Governor of Alaska. You guys will probably all be asleep by the time we get the final tally from the Aleutian islands. Go Sara, Hubba Hubba.!

[Extraneus]

CathyFhead

You know, Martin, I don't normally read your comments -- no offense -- but I always read cathyf's, and I hope you're not too surprised if you end up banned from here due to your incivility.

[JM Hanes]

Martin:

We had working voting machines, but the Democrats didn't like 'em. Personally, I thought we'd have been better off replacing the chad collectors with wastebaskets, but nooooo. Cheap, low tech solutions just weren't good enough, and anybody who defended punch cards was endorsing election fraud and vote suppression.

It's just plain good luck that Diebold happens to be run by a Republican, of course; otherwise the Dems would have to admit that they've actually been losing elections.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

'Partisanship aside-what is so difficult about getting working voting machines in this country? It's disgusting.'

Overwhelmingly the places where they have trouble with voting machines are in counties controlled by Democrats. You're right, they're disgusting.

[Daddy]

The only time my Aunt ever voted for a Democrat in her life was when she was dead.

[Jane]

a “responsible redeployment” from Congress.

So far that's the line of the day.

[Tomf]

jwest:

Greetings from the shores of Lake Michigan! My wife and I voted this morning in a conservative western Michigan district. Long lines, very big turn-out here.
Sure hope you're right about Stabenow. Granholm may be gone also!

[clarice]

In my precinct we have a wonderful low tech operation. You get a cardboard ballot and a pencil. You draw a line from the candidate's name to the arrow. You put your ballot into an electronic scanner which tabulates it.

If someone is physically handicapped and can't manage that, there is a big touch screen.

[cathyf]

To wander back on target, Miniter has a piece in today's WSJ summary line "Republicans have let the Northeast go. Today they may pay the price."

I think the defining moment was really the government shutdown. Newt and his gang completely misread the mood of the country because they were simply incapable of thinking that far outside the beltway. They fell for Clinton's line when Clinton said that everyone would blame Congress for the shutdown. (I started to say that they "swallowed" Clinton's line, but decided that I shouldn't say that ;-) They were just totally out of touch -- the country was mostly divided between those who creditted Newt's Gang for giving them the great snarly catfight that they were thoroughly enjoying, and those who gave bipartisan credit as they enjoyed the show.

[Lurker]

I can't believe what Pelosi is saying about the integrity of the voting machines. She makes it even more disgusting.

[jwest]

What is the atmosphere at other polling places?

Our precinct naturally has older workers, but extremely friendly and professional. Every election, they have a large table of pastries and coffee (don’t know who pays for it, but it sure is nice) and they even have volunteers in the parking lot to help direct you to open spots.

In looking at random polling stations on TV, they seem to be less than welcoming.

Just wondering.

[Bob]

For those of you to civilized to wander over to the DU, here's their effort to start the cry of stolen elections... again!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x456854>Vote Flipping 2006... Its happening AGAIN

It's just so sad.

And how come they never worry about the company http://www.homelandstupidity.us/2006/03/31/venezuelas-involvement-in-us-elections/>Smartmatic?

[Florence Schmieg]

Caught a brief snippet on the radio. News guy was talking about some voting problems popping up here and there. And guess who was briefly interivewed? Harold Ford, stating that some of the DIEBOLD machines in and around Memphis weren't working. This is all a plan by the Democrats to instill these talking points. They know that it is inevitable in a national election that some things won't work. So they are all ready to alledge voter fraud by the evil Republicans. I don't know why Ford is so popular with Republicans. To me, he has always come across as a slick, insincere politician. But I don't vote in Tennessee unfortunately.

[Florence Schmieg]

Also, I predict that Fitzpatrick will win against the "vet" who looks about 20 years old, Murphy. Sestak will beat Curt Weldon. Gerlach can hold on. Sherwood has real problems and will likely lose. I vote in Delaware. No real national races here. Did have the opportunity to vote against Joe Biden's son for attorney general. Unqualified. But his Dad's name is big here so he could win. Even the News-Journal (very liberal) endorsed the Republican, Wharton.

[maryrose]

I like Ford and wish he would switch to the republican party. Today he is reviewing dem talking points. He is going to get beat badly today so this machine baloney in Memphis isn't going to make any difference. Corker has this one in the bag. Only when they are losing do candidates come on air to complain. He should be out in the streets of Memphis kissing babies.

[cathyf]

Oh, and Extraneus, thanks for the kind words!

[verner]

MaryRose, You are correct. I early voted in Williamson county last week. Turnout is very heavy here, in what must be one of the strongest republican counties in the country. It's also raining in Memphis. Not good for the dems.

Corker is OK. He was not my choice in the primary. But he will win. I hate it in a way. I really like Harold Ford Jr. For a democrat, he's not half bad. He is also very charismatic, and from evryone I've met who knows him, a nice guy. I wish we could switch HF Jr. with some of the crap democrats who will be winning today. The democrat party needs more like him.

That said, I just don't think he will be able to escape the Ford legacy. Not to mention, though he's a "good" democrat, he's still a democrat, and many people (like me) simply could not support him when so much is at stake on the national level. I truly believe that if the democrats get control of both houses, we will have another "Cambodia" on our hands in six months. They will pull out, and cut the purse strings as they go--just like they did in Indochina. That just can't happen.

[verner]

Looks Like the polls are not good for HF JR.

Breaking from the Nashville City Paper:

After previously considering a lawsuit, the Tennessee Democratic Party has decided it will not file suit this afternoon to keep polling places open later.

[maryrose]

Thank God there won't be that travesty of allowing people to vote after the agreed upon deadline.

[PeterUK]

"Thank God there won't be that travesty of allowing people to vote after the agreed upon deadline."

Like after the funeral,or after they have voted once?

[hit and run]

Thank God there won't be that travesty of allowing people to vote after the agreed upon deadline.

Thank who? Harold told us that God wanted him to be senator, didn't he?

[verner]

Did I mention that the Memphis FOrd family made their money in the Funeral Home business? Believe it or not...

[topsecretk9]

-- I really like Harold Ford Jr. For a democrat, he's not half bad. He is also very charismatic, and from evryone I've met who knows him, a nice guy. I wish we could switch HF Jr. with some of the crap democrats who will be winning today. The democrat party needs more like him.---

This what i have been wondering (for a while actually)...wonder if he had pulled a Lieberman and switched to Independent...do you think he woulda/coulda won?

[clarice]

Dems f*&+ up in No Va (Webb territory)

Major Democratic problem in No. Va.?
[Greg Pollowitz 11/07 03:10 PM]

Not sure if this is as big a deal as “Not Larry Sabato” suggests, but as it’s a pro-Webb blog, it’s something to watch:

SAMPLE BALLOTS PULLED IN 10TH

FAIRFAX COUNTY DEMOCRATS PRINTED THEIR SAMPLE BALLOTS FOR THE 10th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT ON YELLOW PAPER- WHICH IS ILLEGAL UNDER A 2005 RULE CHANGE.

ALL DEMOCRATIC SAMPLE BALLOTS IN THE FAIRFAX PORTION OF THE 10TH ARE BEING PULLED.

THIS COULD BE A DISASTER IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA’S MOST COMPETITIVE CONGRESSIONAL RACE…

DEVELOPING…..

November 07, 2006 | Permalink

http://sixers.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzY4MDJhNzljYzc1MjdmMGU2NzEzODU5YzhjYzEwODQ=

[verner]

TS9: This what i have been wondering (for a while actually)...wonder if he had pulled a Lieberman and switched to Independent...do you think he woulda/coulda won?

I doubt he would do that. The ironic thing about Jr. is that I don't think he is cut from the same cloth as the rest of his family--though he owes everything to them. He was given his congressional seat by virtue of his name at age 27, and now he is set to lose a senate seat because of it. No matter how much they liked him personally, many people just could not get past the Ford name. Kind of like, would you ever vote for a Kennedy running as a democrat? I wouldn't.

I really think that he would have a future as a moderate Republican. If he is being honest about his positions on a whole host of issues, he has little in common with the democrat base. It will never happen though.

If we ever do end up with a "third party" springing up from the middle with McCain and Lieberman etc., HF Jr. could find himself in a staring role.

[SunnyDay]

Norfolk - AT 2PM my precinct had steady traffic - no dems out front; republicans were handing out sample ballots. I imagine there are lines before and after working hours.

We use the touch screen/smart cards - no problems.

What is wrong with those people who can't work the machines? Sheesh.

[jean]

please stop buying into the "Ford is so nice"I live in Memphis the entire family is corrupt.In his first campaign his signs said junior,thats all. I would lay odds before this election is over he will cry racism and sue someone. Sorry to be so snarky ,but for a long while I've been shaking my head and wondering when the world would wake up to what a con this man is

[topsecretk9]

--If we ever do end up with a "third party" springing up from the middle with McCain and Lieberman etc., HF Jr. could find himself in a staring role. --

I said before Lieberman actually switched, that if he did and was successful...Dems running in Red states would be inclined to follow suit...I stick by that.

[Terrye]

I voted absentee so I did not have to deal with the new machines. I understand there are problems in a few areas, but things seem to be running smoothly now.

Who was it that come up with that memo in 2004 instructing Democrats to claim fraud whether they see it or not?

[Don]

Yeah right-here's a thread on Free Republic:

"Voting problems reported in NJ (Machines Won't Allow Vote For Kean)"

[Terrye]

I think Ellsworth should switch. Most people around here seem to think he is a Republican in disguise. His ads just do not sound like something you expect from a Democrat at all.

Guns, God and Country.

[verner]

Jean, I am a 5th generation Memphian, and half of my family is still there. Of course the entire Ford family is deeply corrupt, and Jr. owes his political career to their power and influence. But I think HF sr. wanted something better for him, and has groomed him since birth to be a polished, serious politician who is above the usual Ford family garbage.

Like I said though, he just can't throw off the family legacy in many voters minds. I never thought he had a chance of winning on a state wide level. Even people who like Jr. personally, and are not impressed by Corker, just couldn't pull the lever for him.

I wouldn't count him out though. If he doesn't win, my prediction is that he will run for mayor of Memphis, and win easily. And hey, he couldn't do worse than Herendon.

[topsecretk9]

--Who was it that come up with that memo in 2004 instructing Democrats to claim fraud whether they see it or not?--

The DNC (scan of memo)

[The Unbeliever]

No on-the-site precint voting news from me (voted by mail), but at the workplace everyone wearing the "I voted!" stickers seemed 10x more interested in the local issues and the state Constitutional amendments on the ballot. The whole day I don't think I heard anyone mention any issue from the national scene, certainly nothing JOM or Kos would've taken notice of; that may have something to do with the outcomes of our gubernatorial and Senate races being a foregone conclusion for the past few months. And yet the majority of the office was fired up and eager to vote.

(Deep red middle class/professional district, fwiw.)

[topsecretk9]

--No on-the-site precint voting news from me (voted by mail), but at the workplace everyone wearing the "I voted!" stickers--

Unbeliever...you just HAD to mention the latest controversy sweeping the country now didn't you??!!!

[Enlightened]

Well, I read somewhere that if the advance news is pro-GOP, the exit poll leaking will start late. If it is pro-Dem, the leaking will start earlier. Usually have results at 9 am, 1 pm, 5pm and 8 pm????

Awful quiet out there hmmmm???

Except for the pre-scripted voting machines don't work, voter fraud, polling place problems, etc etc.....just sayin. Maybe the Magnificent Bastard has struck again....

[Terrye]

Here in Indiana, up north where the strange people live, there have been problems in Muncie, Delaware County. Needless to say the Democrats immediately began to rage at the Republicans. Why? Well because that's why. If anything goes wrong anywhere..

I live in a rural county in southern Indiana. And somehow the locals always figure out how to make things work and if they screwed up I can't imagine them blaming their neighbor who happens to be in the other party. But get into the cities and no matter what goes wrong, someone has to take the blame.

So the state is blaming the poll workers in 75 precincts for not programming 255 machines properly and the pollworkers are blaming the people who installed the software and the Democrats are blaming the "criminal" Republicans at the State House for not doing something or other.

It reminds me of that deal in Florida in 2000 where the Democrat hired her relatives to work on the election board and then of course they got paid for doing nothing and when it hit the fan....they blamed Bush. of course. It must be nice to never have to responsible for anything.

[Enlightened]

And of course Britany Spears chose today to file for divorce - the Magnificent Bastard has planned - magnificently.

Her news far outshines Nancy's New Freshened Face.

[Don]

Nope. Dems have the House. National Review is already prepping for the pessissism.

[Don]

It's true that losers claim fraud:

"U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson and an attorney for the state Republican Party this morning said at least two heavily Republican precincts in the Northeast Heights received only a fraction of the paper ballots needed, a move they called a deliberate attempt to disenfranchise GOP voters."

[jean]

Verner I believe he is as corupt as the rest the family ,just a lot smoother. I agree he may very well become Mayor of Memphis.The fight between the Ford family and Herendon will be something to watch.

[Enlightened]

Hewitt has a post up about how Michael Steele and his wife were treated by voters as they waited to cast their own votes.

Unbelievable the depths the Democratic party of fear and loathing will sink to.

Michael Steele stood head and shoulders above the morass - again.

[Sue]

Aren't the results from exit polls supposed to come out at 5:00 PM Eastern?

[Enlightened]

Dems have the house - And who exactly has veto power? And how about that fillibustering technique perfected by the Dems - GOP'ers have studied up. Too bad the GOP will keep enough seats to sustain their veto power. Ouch - that's got to hurt.

Nancy "I left My Face In San Francisco" Pelosi - Speaker Retardinaire. Has a great ring to it.

Hey - I hear Cindy Sheehan is job hunting - She would be a perfect assistant for Nance.
She is great at Marketing - Mercedes Peace Signs for all!

It's going to be fabulous.

[cathyf]

Sue, there is some complicated story about how the results are supposed to be completely secret (people locked up in a windowless room without any way to contact the outside world) until 5pm eastern (2pm pacific, 7 hours before the polls close in CA). They will be collating results phoned in at 9, 12, 3, 6, 9, midnight. (9pm CA is midnight eastern...) Then the newsies have agreed that they will keep the results secret until the polls close -- just use the results to prepare their coverage plans for the evening.

The theory is that if the gop is ahead, the msm will be the picture of moral rectitude and keep its promise of secrecy until polls close, while if the dems are ahead they will leak. But the time period in question just started 15 minutes ago...

(And besides, once a whole bunch of people know it's hard for me to believe that it will stay secret. Journalists are natural blabbermouths after all!)

[Enlightened]

Malkin - Pelosi posted to Huffpo about the first 100 hours of a Dem-lead House.

Commentors are not happy with her post. They want IMPEACHMENT as job #1.

Hilarious.

[Sue]

Well, it hasn't leaked, so I wonder what that says? Nothing probably. I still hate to wait. ::grin::

[Enlightened]

AJ appears to say CNN is starting to leak. pro-Dem.

Which means CNN most likely needs to get the attention of more DEM voters to change the incoming results which must be pro-GOP.

[Sue]

Hannity says Allen may be losing VA and Talent may be losing MO. If you are in VA or MO, and haven't voted, do so!

[TexasToast]

Sue

Just curious. Perry or Strayhorn?

[Sue]

Perry.

[Tina]

Long time lurker, first time poster. Go look at Drudge and see if he is sending a hint about the exit polls! LOL

[Enlightened]

Tina - You mean "Lean to the Left, lean to the RIGHT"??????

Good catch!

[clarice]

Excellent catch--hope you're right, Tina.

[Enlightened]

Well, unfortunately for the MSM, it is emerging that the GOP is out in record numbers. Contrary to their POLLS that the GOP was jumping ship. So what might that tell us about all their other POLLS (not like we didn't already know)

It was either a severe case of wishful thinking (and hoping) or The Magnificent Bastard was right all along.

[maryrose]

Colorado judge denies holding poll places open for an extra 2 hours.

[Enlightened]

So why or why would the Dems want to hold Colorado open for 2 additional hours??????

Something is starting to smell um,
sock-like.

[maryrose]

So they can defeat Beauprez for Governor and maybe grab a republican House seat.

[Enlightened]

So in about 15 minutes, some Eastern precincts can start reporting? The DU'ers are waiting anxiously for Ohio to start reporting?

[Jane]

Shep sounds like he knows it doesn't look good for the right. Questions like "How bad does it look" after admitting he'd seen some exit polls don't bode well.

I won't believe it til I hear it from Barone, but it may be time to start weaving a silk purse.

[The Unbeliever]

I have little doubt the GOP will turn out in force this election, but the real question is about the independants. Support for the parties among the non-affiliated has been split for the past few elections, but I doubt the trend will continue this election. It comes down to a question of desire for GOP changes vs. disgust for Democratic foolishness.

For me, the disgust weighs heavier and the GOP got my independant vote again; but the Republicans here are safe for a reason (e.g. strong, principled conservative candidates), and I don't know if the same will follow for the rest of the country.

[clarice]

Jane, By this time in 2004 they were calling Kerry Mr. President.

[Enlightened]

Intial reports from Ohio are in metro areas, Toledo, Columbus, Cleveland and Cincy - turnout is only in the teens.

Rural areas in the 70's.

Anyone know which areas are Dem/GOP?

[Jane]

I remember that clearly Clarice.

Enlightened, cities tend to go dem, rural right.

[clarice]

Now Drudge has the Capitol tilting both ways--

Meanwhile some news:
"NATIONAL

Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote)
Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.

ARIZONA

There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day – and 41% of the state has already voted. In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)

CONNECTICUT

In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.

FLORIDA

Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day – and 36% of the state has already voted.
Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)

MARYLAND:

Republican absentees had pulled within even of Democrats before Election Day – in a state with a 2:1 dem registration advantage.
Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 3% higher than Dem precincts off 2004 turnout (51-43).

MISSOURI

Of the precincts we are tracking, Republican precincts are turning out 2.6% higher than Dem precincts (42.3% to 39.7%) based off of the 2004 vote.
2004 exit polls had a 3% dem bias.

OHIO:

In 2004, exit polling was off by almost 9% (they had Kerry winning by almost 7%, we won by 2%)

TENNESSEE

(not much to say here…turnout looks against us, no exit polling from ’04 and absentee data is from MT data)
In precinct turnout tracking, dem precincts are turning out 1% higher off 2004 vote.
We estimate a 1% advantage on the absentee voting.

VIRGINIA:

In 2004, exit polling had the presidential within 1%, yet President Bush won by over 8%.
Of the precincts we are tracking, GOP precincts are turning out at 48% of 2004’s turnout while Dem precincts are only at 41%."

http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/11/the_rncs_absent.html

[PeterUK]

Ready to call foul?

[Enlightened]

Hewitt says he hears the exit polling is a shamble. Not even laugh worthy.

[Jane]

PUK,

The link doesn't load

[PeterUK]

Clarice,
"Jane, By this time in 2004 they were calling Kerry Mr. President."

I think that was "Missed President".

[hit and run]

Is it just me or has The Corner gone dark? Last post i see is from JPod at 5:05...over an hour ago????

[clarice]

Low Dem turnout in Ohio--race to the court

Voter Turnout: 13% at 2 p.m. in Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Dems File Lawsuit To Keep Polls Open Late)
newsnet5.com ^ | 11/7/06

Posted on 11/07/2006 3:08:37 PM PST by excludethis

Ohio Democrats Filing Lawsuit To Keep Polls Open Late 13 Percent Voter Turnout Reported In Cuyahoga County

POSTED: 11:02 am EST November 7, 2006 UPDATED: 5:51 pm EST November 7, 2006

CLEVELAND -- The Ohio Democratic party is filing a lawsuit to keep polling locations in Cuyahoga County open late, NewsChannel5 reported.

Four polling locations did not open until about 7 a.m. The Democrats are not happy that they did not open on time.

They are asking a federal judge to keep them open. The same thing happened in the May primary.

The Democrats want to give voters extra time to cast their ballots.

They are also concerned about the security of the paper ballots that had been cast when electronic machines weren't working Tuesday morning.

The Board of Elections is preparted to argue the case in front of judge.

Voter Turnout

Early reports on voter turnout shows a lot of people stayed away from the polls early Tuesday.

According to 5 On Your Side chief investigator Duane Pohlman, voter turnout was 13 percent at 2 p.m. in Cuyahoga County. Voter turnout in Ohio was expected to be at more than 50 percent.

However, several problems were reported at the polls Tuesday and that may have contributed to the low turnout, NewsChannel5 reported.

Board of Election officials are hoping that number will increase as people get off work and head to the polls.

[Enlightened]

Well, 6 pm, come - gone. Like I said before, if the early returns are pro-GOP the MSM will be mute.

Just sayin. We know how the early return bug can bite back....

[PeterUK]

Jane,
Odd,works for me,try this

[hit and run]

Seems all NRO is experiencing technical difficulties.........

[Enlightened]

AJ is reporting the exit polls are garbage also.