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November 04, 2006

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Cecil Turner

Per Krauthammer:

Since the end of World War II, the average loss for a second-term presidency in its sixth year has been 29 House seats and six Senate seats. If you go back to FDR’s second term, the House loss average jumps to 35. Thus a 25/6 House/Senate loss would be about (and slightly below) the historical average.
He then notes incumbency advantages have grown, so perhaps the standards should shift a bit, but that seems to me a reasonable metric for a big "win/loss." Anything less is moderate to a wash. Dems taking over the Senate or Reps keeping the House would be big. In any event, likely to be more entertainment than action for the next couple years. And I'm not sure if that's a good thing™ or bad.

Sue

Charlie Rangel said yesterday that a lot of the democrats who are likely to win are coming from republican districts, which means they are conservative democrats. He also noted they will have run on conservative values and issues. Not likely to change their positions too much, in order to retain their seat the next go around. And not likely to help in the battle to cut taxes, etc., but will be a good thing for deciding chair heads.

lurker

As long as the democrats do not reverse any of the current bills, it may be a good thing...

until 2009 when the tax cuts expire.

If the democrats gain majority of either or both houses, the odds that the democrats extending the tax cuts will probably be nil.

If the federal deficits continue to come down by at least half, then the facts will disprove them in their campaign slogans. I listened to a few minutes of Howard Dean when TIVO restarted its system. Howard Dean was trying to propose his DNC plan by repealing the Patriot Act, tax cuts, address the Republican budget deficits, pull troops out of Iraq, blah blah blah.

I changed the channel as I was just beginning to fume; knowing how wrong he is.

lurker

I am not convinced of the new conservative democrats. After all, they voted against Lieberman when he ran for the democratic primary. Is he considered one of the more conservative democrats? I don't think so but at least he understood the need for invading Iraq.

lurker

Incidentally, did you read Byron York's article about Shelley Sekula Gibbs? At least I made one spelling error by selecting S-H-E-L-L-Y!

Hope this will turn out to be a landslide election in her favor to eliminate all odds of a democratic challenge of our votes.

We will see.

Sue

I think the ultimate irony will be if Sekula-Gibbs wins. I wonder why she didn't drop the hyphen for the race though? Shelley Gibbs is a lot simpler than Sekula-Gibbs. And if they put Shelley Gibbs in the machine, will it count? Tuesday night looks to be a long night, not just in TX-22, but all over the country.

Sue

I voted on Thursday, with the new machine. We were given a choice, though, machine or paper ballot. I chose the machine to see how easy/hard it would be. Not hard at all. I wish I had looked at the name/type of machine it was to see if it was the same. I suspect it was. I'll do a quick search to see if I can find out. I am in Texas, BTW, just not the 22nd district.

verner

I can report from Tennessee that Corker is the likely winner. In a way, I think it is a shame. I like Harold Ford Jr.--though the "come to Jesus" stuff is getting a bit old." He is a democrat that I could stomach, and it would be good to see him in a position of power and influence in their party.

But Jr. has two problems a) his last name is Ford, and b) he is still a democrat. The Ford family is legend in TN for dirty politics. The election of his Aunt Ophelia--trying to take over Uncle John's state senate seat after Uncle John got busted for bribery, and occasionally firing his 38 at truckers going too slow in the fast lane on I-40--was overturned when they found too many dead voters on the rolls in precincts that voted almost exclusively for her.

And now they've found 10 stolen "smart cards" from a polling station in Shelby County that I guarantee is not a Corker stronghold.

If HF Jr. really wanted to shake things up, he sould switch to the Republican party.Even Alan Colmes said the other night that he sounded more like Sean Hannity!

I think Jr. would have an increadibly bright future in the GOP. He could join forces with rising stars like Steele, and help change the party for the better. (A little acknowledged fact, middle class African-Americans tend to be very socially conservative on a host of issues, and are getting left behind by the Pelosi wing of the Democrat Party.)

In any case, it certainly appears to be true that most of the candidates that the dems recruited were certainly from their "conservative" wing. Wonder if Ms. Pelosi will win the speakership with all the new blood? Maybe not.

Sue

Verner,

I have always liked Ford too. I tend to forgive candidates for some of their election season antics, as long as they don't make a practice of acting stoopid! However, he isn't my congressman, he is a democrat, and I am not in the mood for a Pelosi speaker reign, even if short lived. ::grin::

lurker

I don't know why Shelley did not drop "Sekula" from her last name. The machines do not allow for dashes either. I thought that was strange.

Didn't the Ford Family have communist ties?

The conservative democrats would not have much patience with Pelosi.

How do the House polls look over the weekend?

Sue

I did a quick search in google for 'voting machine texas' and the first page of displays are all voter fraud stories and the evils of Diebold. I suspect a secret google bomb was dispatched.

I haven't kept up with the controversy, but I would imagine that everyone in Texas is using the same machine, in order to avoid the fiasco of 2000. I will be happy to stand corrected if that isn't the case. The machine I voted on is very user friendly. It had a dial that you used to hi-lite the candidate you were voting for, it had an enter button and a cast your vote button. Before you cast your vote, a screen displayed showing what your votes were. I didn't do a write-in, so I don't know how simple/hard that could be.

Patton

I am going to go out on a limb and predict the Republicans retain both House and Senate.

But thats just a dumb military guy talking, I'm no Jon Carry.

Sue

lurker,

They seem to be about the same as they have been. It all hinges on voter turn out.

jerry

Where is Bob Ney today, where is his friend Abramoff, where is the outrage? Hidden behind an inky cloud of Republican spin, of course.

And where is that abandoned US soldier in Sadr City anyway?

lurker

Bob Ney (R) Resigns, William Jefferson (D) Still Hasn’t

Other Tom

Off topic a bit, but let us all rub our hands together in glee at the prospect of a ringing defeat for one Jack Carter, whose candidacy is unquestionably a referendum on his father. Let us all harken back to those wonderfully comedic years of the short-lived Carter administration. One immediately recalls such things as the "malaise" speech, the hemorrhoid incident, the "Montezuma's revenge" remark in Mexico, and the killer rabbit. Or how about the oil "crisis" as the "moral equivalent of war?" The cardigan sweater, the White House thermostat set at 66 degrees, lights out on the national Christmas tree. Or when, seeking to ingratiate himself as a sports fan with a Houston audience, he referred to quarterback Ken Stabler as "Ken Stadler." Or when he introduced Hubert Humphrey at the Democratic convention as "Hubert Horatio Hornblower." Or "I have lusted in my heart." Oh God he was a true piece of work. (And let us not forget the grim visage of the perpetually constipated Rosalynn, who makes Kate Michelman look like a giddy dance-hall girl.)

But the comedy loses a bit of its lustre when we recall the agonizing, hand-wringing paralysis following the embassy takeover, the Carter-signature Desert One catastrophe, the misery index above twenty, and all the rest. The people of Nevada have been presented with a rare opportunity: to tell the world what they really think of Jimmy Carter, all over again.

lurker

Other Tom, if the people of Nevada are not happy with Harry Reid, they need to vote with their disappointment of Reid.

lurker

And, as an hindsight, I'm beginning to wonder if the democrats will think not twice but thrice about pulling our troops out.

Why?

Because they will be afraid of being blamed for the next 9/11 attack.

lurker

Victor Davis Hansen's Before Iraq is excellent!

windansea

"red dems rising" I like it and would love to see rational democrats regain control of their party

Jerry...you are sounding shrill lately, what happened to your sense of humor?

cboldt

-- "And where is that abandoned US soldier in Sadr City anyway?" --


The question answers itself.

Martin

Re: Krauthammer's krap

The Dems gained seats in Congress in the 6th year of Clinton's presidency.

lurker

The dems also gained seats under Reagan. So?

You missed Krauthammer's point.

Martin

Reagan wasn't a Dem. I've made a new vow not to insult people here, but you're making it very hard.

Other Tom

Krauthammer's figures were averages--get it?

Having lost 52 seats in 1994, it would have been quite difficult for Clinton to avoid picking up a few in 1998. The loss of 52 House seats in an off-year election is the modern gold standard for repudiation of a presidency. We will see how this year compares.

Martin

I better spell it out for you:

Clinton was the last sixth year president before now. His party won seats in Congress in his sixth year.

Krautface now says the Bush Repubs are bound to lose, well, because it's historically inevitable!

Except for 1998. Right.

Sue

I believe the comparison was to wartime presidents. But carry on...

Martin

"it would have been quite difficult for Clinton to avoid picking up a few in 1998"

Why do you say that? Is there a maximal number of seats Republicans can hold? Was 1994 it?

Sue

Ahh...I didn't read his article. However, I did watch him last night and his point last night was on wartime presidents. So either way, he is correct. Averages or wartime.

Other Tom

Martin: I suppose it bears repeating--Krauthammer's figures were the average for the off-year election in a president's second term. Do you dispute them? Krauthammer makes no exception for 1998; he includes the 1998 figures in calculating the average.

Why on earth do you point out that Reagan wasn't a Democrat? He was a Republican; his party lost seats in the House in his sixth year. Clinton was a Democrat; his party gained. The average in sixth-year elections since WWII is a loss of 29 for the president's party.

Is there something you don't grasp here?

Sue

I thought the democratic gains in 1998 were punishment for republicans impeaching Clinton? Has the talking point changed again?

SunnyDay

you're making it very hard


try not to let others control your behavior.

Patrick R. Sullivan

'I like Harold Ford Jr'

Yeah, he'd be a lot more logical Presidential candidate than Obama. Too bad the Dems don't have a lot more Fords and fewer Pelosis.

clarice

OT" How could you discuss that putz Carter without mentioning gas lines and 19% interest rates? Worst. President. Ever. And worst ex-President, too.

As for the election, I'm an optimist. And more significantly, Barone is giving me reason to be.

I believed Ehrlich would win when he first ran for governor--against all odds. I predict Steele will also. In largest part, it's because of something not measurable on slide rules.They are smart, charming, decent and capable and people look at them and know it. In some part, too, it's because the Md Dems have taken terrible advantage of Black voters, and those voters know it.

Whatever happens in the House count (and I do think a Dem takeover would be a disaster), a win by Steele would be a major blow for the Dems IMO.

Other Tom

"Why do you say that?"

I say that because, for some time now, this has been a "50-50 nation." (Surely you have seen the endless commentary on this subject in recent years.) That being the case, the answer to your second question is yes, there is indeed a maximal number of seats the Republicans can hold, and the same is true of the Democrats.

It is no disgrace to be unable to grasp the concept of "averages." A certain degree of analytical ability is required, and not everyone can handle it. Is there some way we can assist you with this?

Bob

As clarice pointed out yesterday, they are predicting Rain on Tues pretty much across the RED states.

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/11/04/Worldandnation/Democrats_hope_rain__.shtml>Democrats
hope rain, rain stays away

A new study of voter behavior confirms something political operatives have long suspected: rain hurts Democrats and helps Republicans. The study found that 1 inch of rain reduces overall turnout by slightly less than 1 percent and cuts the Democratic vote by 2.5 percentage points.

Looks like the wimpy Democrats are not only afraid of their shadow, but now it's rain too... I guess if they can't blame Rove for stealing the election, they'll go after the weatherman. Maybe they'll even have Al Gore make another brilliant statement that it's Global Warming again! ...can you smoke in the rain?

Martin

I dig averages Other Tom.Have you checked out Bush's average approval ratings lately?

Hey Bob-now Republicans are praying for rain?

I knew their evangelical wing wanted to drag the country into religious moronitude, but I didn't know it was so severe.

Martin

Hey- Rove having the Army Times call for the SecDef's resignation the weekend before the election! Genius indeed.

SunnyDay

Have you checked out Bush's average approval ratings lately?

Yeah, we're not going to vote for him.

SunnyDay

who publishes army times?

cboldt

-- "Is there a maximal number of seats Republicans can hold? Was 1994 it?" --


No. The maximum number is 435, looking just at the House.


Wherever did you come up with 1994 as the maximal number?

clarice

Gannett. It contains all sorts of news you can use stuff for the military--beenefits, et al and is distributed at posts throughout the world, but it is not editorially reflective of military views.

Sara (Squiggler)

The signs should read: It's the Committee charmanships, stupid!

How red dems vote is unimportant, who runs the committees changes the entire dynamics of what business is conducted or gets to a vote in the first place.

cboldt

-- "Too bad the Dems don't have a lot more Fords and fewer Pelosis" --


Which team are you rooting for? It might be better for the GOP if the DEM party was comprised wholly of Cynthia McKinney and Maxine Waters types.

Tollhouse

Yeah, the Army Times is the kind of like a union paper for DoD Army civilian employees with enough army stuff to confuse the outsiders. Same for the Navy Times and the Air Force times. Their market isn't the guy in uniform.

SunnyDay

Thank you Clarice! Exactly - Gannett is just a publishing house, catering to the military market/ Army Times is not "The Army."

clarice

BTW, we often laugh at the Kosniks overhyped claims about their ability to mobilize for campaigns, but Diana Irey( a very attractive candidate in every way) has successfully used the web to raise money and mobilize support in her fight against Murtha. Perhaps the difference is it's her website and she controls the content and there is a there there.

SunnyDay

My question - is Martin that dumb, or does he think we are that dumb?

Martin

I think you're that dumb.

cboldt

-- "who runs the committees changes the entire dynamics of what business is conducted or gets to a vote in the first place." --


41 Republicans voting in lock step can block 100% of the votes in the Senate. I once looked up the tactic of objecting to a motion to take up a matter for debate, and there was a particular bill where 8 cloture votes were taken on the motion to take up, all defeated. The matter never even came up for debate, let alone a vote.

cboldt

-- "I think you're that dumb." --


That's an indefinite insult. It shouldn't be taken as standing for any particular proposition.

Bob

Yeah Martin, we do pray every once in a while, but rain is not high on our list... Ya know you should try it sometimes, it just might clear your foggy head!

While we're talking about praying, I guess those friends of yours at ACORN are registering dead people in the hope that God will answer their prayers, and raise them from the dead next Tuesday morning... or is that just another overzealous "dig up the votes" campaign by the Democrats?

I'm sure bet your pal Lamont wishes there were more dead people here in CT!

Martin

cboldt-it was a direct answer to a question.

Martin

You're right on the 41 cboldt-but wasn't it Republicans threatening a "constitutional option" to do away with the filibuster not so long ago?

cboldt

Correction, it was 6 failed cloture votes on proceeding to a single matter. The seventh and eight cloture motions were withdrawn.

Sara (Squiggler)

I posted the MAF Announcement in the Iraq Sniper thread. Interesting, but nothing politically earthshaking.

Semanticleo

"If the Republicans end up controlling the House and Senate, they win (We win!)."

What do you mean 'we', white man?

You certainly must be including the military
in the 'we' category, or they ALL traitors?

http://www.armytimes.com/

SunnyDay

cbolt,

I think "classic cbolt" is in order this morning.

SunnyDay

http://www.gannett.com

cboldt

-- "wasn't it Republicans threatening a "constitutional option" to do away with the filibuster not so long ago?" --

I think a group of 14 Senators, half DEM and half GOP, did away with filibusters. It'll probably take the DEM equivalent of a constitutional option to bring them back.

SunnyDay

Army Times must be in today's talking points. BWAHAHAHAHAHA

cboldt

-- " we do pray every once in a while, but rain is not high on our list" --


Have you heard the term "Drought David?" Have a heart, pray for rain.

Sara (Squiggler)

Yes 41 can be effective, but it doesn't matter what the vote would have been. The controlling party decides what legislation comes to the floor for a vote in the first place. Doesn't matter if 1 or 101 vote, if the matter never gets to the floor. Remember, the Speaker of the House is 3rd in line for the Presidency. How safe do you think either Bush or Cheney will be if Pelosi becomes Speaker? Anyone doubt that there is someone crazy enough to try to make her President? I don't. I haven't seen a sane, rational leftist in years.

cboldt

-- "I think "classic cbolt" is in order this morning." --


Hey, it's great to be pronunced as being "in order." I good order too, if I don't mind saying so myself.

Sara (Squiggler)

Repeat -- the Army Times piece is an Editorial, an OPINION piece. Who cares?

cboldt

-- "Didn't the Ford Family have communist ties?" --


The other Fords, the ones that settled in Michigan, had a line of automobiles. Interesting that another would come up with a line of men's neckwear. Were the ties attractive?

Other Tom

Cboldt:

I did not come up with 1994 as the maximal number. I said that some maximal number exists. I did not go on to say, because I assumed that only an imbecile would need it spelled out, that that number cannot be determined, but is certainly less than 435. (Perhaps Mr. Kerry could provide you some instruction on "nuance.")

cboldt

-- "The controlling party decides what legislation comes to the floor for a vote in the first place." --

Yes, we agree. 41 Senators can control something coming up for debate, and coming up for vote. No matter what happens, the GOP is the controlling party. "Tails I win, heads you lose" sort of thing.

SunnyDay

But Sara, they were told that this would be an effective argument. They think we're that dumb. ;)

clarice

cboldt, that deal was only for this term and expires with this Congress. At least one of the 14 --DeWine--will certainly not be reelected.

SunnyDay

I've always beena loyal Warner supporter, but he's annoyed me beyond belief lately. When I write him, I get nothing but canned responses. grrrrrrrrrrrr.

cboldt

-- "I assumed that only an imbecile would need it spelled out, that that number cannot be determined, but is certainly less than 435" --


There are 435 seats. They can all be held by the GOP. Only an imbecile would say the maximal number is 1994, since you seem to want to get nasty and personal about it.


-- "Perhaps Mr. Kerry could provide you some instruction on "nuance."" --


I didn't know that Mr. Kerry gave nuance instruction. I figured him as a master comedian, never serious and all that.

Jane

This is exactly what I expect on Tuesday:

"Either We Win Or You Cheated"

That's liberal Robert Kuttner's claim in today's Boston Globe-
Democrat, offered without irony (Democrats are, after all, the "vote
early and often" party).

http://thenaturaltruth.blogspot.com/2006/11/either-we-win-or-you-cheated.html

Sara (Squiggler)

My Republican Congresswoman will be reelected easily, my Republican Governor is cruising to reelection. I live in blue, blue, blue California. Go figure.

lurker

Good riddance to DeWine who voted against Roberts and Alito. Who will replace him? Hope a conservative Republican!

Sara, perhaps California's turning red?

cboldt

-- "that deal was only for this term and expires with this Congress. At least one of the 14 --DeWine--will certainly not be reelected." --

Dang. It was working out so well. It did seem a bit of a BS deal though, because Bolton's nomination was stiffed by a filibuster, after the deal. Hard to tell what those wacky Senators will do.

Too bad about DeWine. He's a short person, and so am I.

Marty Pedanticleo

Oh yeah! Well what about the whole, entire Army calling for Rummy's resignation over at Armytymes.com?

...Oh. It's already been mentioned 3 times here? Dang. I'm a little late getting the latest somewhat-true talking point this morning...

Semanticleo

"the Army Times piece is an Editorial, an OPINION piece. Who cares?"

It's ALL the military branches operating in concert. You seemed to care about the troops.
Has that changed?

Sara (Squiggler)

(Senate) Talent-McCaskill tied in the polls.

(Senate) Steele-Cardin tied in the polls.

(House) Corker pulls ahead of Ford in the polls.

(Senate) Burns-Tester tied in the polls.

(Senate) Webb-Allan too close to call.

The Senate seems safe to stay in Repub. hands.

SunnyDay

jane - that's scary!

Other Tom

Cboldt, you're confused about (among other things) the "constitutional option" and the Gang of 14. The constitutional option was an entirely Republican stratagem, pursuant to which they were prepared to enact, by a simple majority vote, a Senate rule that would have eliminated the filibuster in the case of judicial nominees.

I'll say it one more time: I have not said, nor would I say, that the maximal number was the one achieved in 1994 (go back and read it again). The maximum number is 435 in the sense that the maximum number of perfect games that a pitcher can throw in a major-league season is 162. There are no laws against either event happening, other than the laws of common sense and experience.

Semanticleo

Oh, and I'm sure the discussion was as lengthy
as that of Kerry's bonerism. Priorities mucb?

lurker

Operating in concert? Right.

I don't believe it. It's an opinion.

We still care about and support the troops. No, it has not changed.

God bless the Gold Star Families!!

SunnyDay

cleo, Army Times is a publication of a regular publishing house, it is not a publication of the military or DOD. We know how seriously to take it.

Go back and get another talking point, this one's no good.

Les Nessman

"Good riddance to DeWine who voted against Roberts and Alito. Who will replace him? Hope a conservative Republican!"

Sherrod F'n Brown (Dem) given a 'D' rating by the NRA, I believe. DeWine has an 'F' rating, for God's sake.

The choices for the voter in Ohio are particularly grim this election.

Semanticleo

. I live in blue, blue, blue California. Go figure.

That is, it's blue outside of the Meth Lab rufuges

cboldt

-- "Good riddance to DeWine who voted against Roberts and Alito" --


Uh oh. Internal conflict. I just said "bad" to losing DeWine.


-- "who voted against Roberts and Alito" --


Oh, maybe I can resolve this. DeWine voted">http://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_lists/roll_call_vote_cfm.cfm?congress=109&session=2&vote=00002#top">voted AYE to confirm Alito, and also voted AYE to confirm Roberts. Maybe you have him mixed up with some other Republican Senator. Let me know who to root for, okay?

lurker

And you just happen to live with the Meth Lab refugees, Ali cleown?

Martin

Ok forget the Army Times-how about all the backstabbing neocons in Vanity Fair.

This quote's my favorite for the whole psychosexual implications:

Michael Ledeen, American Enterprise Institute freedom scholar: "Ask yourself who the most powerful people in the White House are. They are women who are in love with the president: Laura [Bush], Condi, Harriet Miers, and Karen Hughes."

lurker

Sorry, cboldt, I probably had someone else mixed up. Chafee?

lurker

These 4 women are just as powerful as Rove, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Negroponte, and Hayden, of course!

There's something about DeWine that I did not like but on the other hand, he's a far better choice than Sherrod.

cboldt

-- "I have not said, nor would I say, that the maximal number was the one achieved in 1994 (go back and read it again)" --


Oh yeah. Martin said that the maximal number was 1994, as if the House even has that many seats, sheesh.


-- "Cboldt, you're confused" --


I don't mean to be. Now you've gone and hurt my feelings.

Sara (Squiggler)

Iraq will be under tight security curfew, airport will be closed in preparation for Saddam verdict tomorrow.

Martin

Hey Lurker that's Clarice's boy Ledeen saying that. Take it up with him. All you Repubs are going to have choose your factions in the internecine battles starting Wednesday.

Semanticleo

"And you just happen to live with the Meth Lab refugees, Ali cleown?"

Indeed. One of my best customers is a right-wing pastor who doesn't inhale his male paramours, or the smoke from his tweaker pipe.

lurker

I don't have a problem with Ledeen making the comment about these 4 women. They all deserve a wonderful compliment coming from Ledeen. Good for them!

SunnyDay

Classic cbolt!! classic cbolt!!

Martin

It wasn't a compliment.

lurker

Oh, so you're that Mike Jones, ali cleown, who failed that poly miserably? Tells us that you're not to be trusted.

Sara (Squiggler)

It's ALL the military branches operating in concert. You seemed to care about the troops.
Has that changed?

What do the troops have to do with this Editorial? Some disgruntled ego-driven officers who have been passed over for promotion are not "the troops." The only ones who don't like Rummy are those whose jobs have been phased out by the military reorganization he has instituted. Crybabies.

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