Iraq - Failure Of Conception, Or Execution?

If, given their divisions and history, the project of bringing democracy to Iraq was doomed from the outset, then one set of lessons can be drawn.  On the other hand, if the current debacle is the result of poor strategic decisions (too few troops, de-Baathification, and disbanding the Iraqi Army spring to mind), then the current implications are quite different.

And this question is important both for thinking about future interventions by the US and for assessing the troop surge Bush is likely to propose.

Jacob Weisberg at Slate has his thoughts, drawing reaction from Andrew Sullivan and Matthew Yglesias, two repentant one-time hawks.

I am leaning in Sulivan's "I Want To Believe" direction, but Matt Y is quite interesting on the lessons of Bosnia and Kosovo.

Comments

[Pete]

Removing italics

[Soylent Red]

Uh oh. We have another crier.

[Pete]

Ok one more time.

Soylent Red said: Reduced to calling names

This is really rich coming from you Solyent Red, given that is exactly what you did to me. Hello Pot. Meet Kettle.

[Pete]

whatever

[PeterUK]

Oh piss off,your liberaloid psychobabble is boring.

[Soylent Red]

I'm sorry Pete. Did I hurt your feelings? I'm not sure where I ever explicitly called you a name.

Unless you count when referred to you as a "hater" because you advocate policies that:

a. would have prevented us from taking out Saddam, thus causing Iraqis to die

b. want us to leave Iraq before the Iraqi government can protect its own people, thus causing Iraqis to die.

I dunno Pete, advocating policies that you know will cause people to die at the hands of dictators or terrorists seems like a pretty indefensible argument to me.

[Soylent Red]

I guess I should have known that members of the Party of Surrender would be hypersensitive emo-wienies.

Isn't there a midnight showing of "The English Patient" you all should be attending?

[TCO]

Smartfer: like that blog to which you headed me. Good job, groundpounder.

[topsecretk9]

Really quite tasty giving Al Qeuda the big SUCK in Mogadishu. Really tasty if we got one of the 98 bombers,

The first comment on the Drudge link:

Islamists are intent on martyring themselves for their fictional "cause". Fortunately, those of us in the American military are intent on the same thing -- martyring Islamists for their fictional cause! At last! Something we can all agree on! Bring on the AC-130s, boys! Lean on a wing and make that baby SING! Posted by jkf398 at 08:05 PM : Jan 08, 2007

[Soylent Red]

Tasty indeed TS9. I could get used to a steady diet of it.

[boris]

Italiacto!

[Rick Ballard]

Soylent,

Here's AC-130 recipe for making good jihadis.

Stir briskly, bake for 7 minutes at 1200 degrees and viola, they're as good as any in the world.

[Soylent Red]

Stir briskly, bake for 7 minutes at 1200 degrees and viola, they're as good as any in the world.

Mmmmm...wash them down with a couple of beers and that's a whole evening.

[BTW]

Greetings from BushCo

BushCo, formerly SaddamCo, is under new management as of the March
2003 hostile take-over. But don't worry you will experience no
interruptions in your service.

100s of thousands of Iraqis dead? Check
Torture chambers open for business? Check
Sectarian violence? Check

NEW and IMPROVED! NEW and IMPROVED! NEW and IMPROVED! NEW and IMPROVED!

But BushCo will not simply accept the industry standard set by
SaddamCo. So BushCo has introduced two new value-added services. Civil
War and Dead US troops by the thousands. And how could you go wrong
with propping up a pro-Iranian sectarian government!

How much would you pay for this service? The low low cost of 500 billion
U.S. of dollars?!

But wait if you don't act now we'll extend this service for another twenty
years at the cost of 5 trillion US dollars and America's reputation.

So don't wait. You can start now by lying your ass off from the privacy of
your own home. Don't delay.

[Pete]

maryrose said: You sir are a pessimist. I truly believe we and the Iraq people can win in Iraq. You are a naysayer and therefore useless in this war on terror. As they say on MTV-NEXT

At least my pessimism is rooted in reality. Bush has been saying for years that we are winning. Yesterday on "Meet the Press" Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said that things in Iraq now are worse than they were two years ago and that we are not winning.

[BTW]

CNN "Quick Poll" results:

Would more U.S. troops help stop the violence in Iraq?

Yes 19%

No 81%

Total: 93305 votes

[topsecretk9]

Italiacto!

Thanks Boris, picking up where Larwyn left off!

Soylent
Crack em.

[topsecretk9]

Operation Infinite Nothing- some things remain the same:

In the fall of 1997, an Egyptian named Mustafa Mahmoud Said Ahmed walked into the Nairobi embassy and told CIA officers that he knew about a group that was planning to detonate a truck bomb inside the diplomats’ underground parking garage. The CIA stated that it received word from a foreign intelligence service that Ahmed was a fabricator of information and that his warning should be treated with skepticism. Ahmed was arrested in Tanzania after the bombing and was believed to be a key figure in the Dar-es-Salaam attack. In particular, investigative Accountability Review Board stated that the intelligence received regarding Ahmed’s warning of a vehicular bomb attack was carefully vetted and was discredited by early 1998.

Operation Infinite Reach

The U.S. response was twofold: militarily and economically. To retaliate on an economic level, President Clinton signed Executive Order 13099 on August 20, 1998 that prohibited transactions with terrorists who threatened to disrupt the Middle East peace process. 13099 further alleged that bin Laden and the Islamic Army Organization were the perpetrators of the attacks on the embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The executive order attempted to freeze assets owned by bin Laden and al Qaeda and stipulated that U.S. citizens and firms could not do business with them. President Clinton ordered Operation Infinite Reach, a series of cruise missile strikes on terrorist targets in Sudan and Afghanistan on August 20, 1998, announcing the planned strike in a primetime address on American television. The choice of targets, the secrecy of the Administration’s deliberation, and the decision to pursue a military response in general all incited criticism and complaint.

I.E. Cluster@#@?*& - Nothing.

9 years later.

[topsecretk9]

prohibited transactions with terrorists who threatened to disrupt the Middle East peace process.

IE...the other terrorists? Cool, continue on man.

[topsecretk9]

Clinton Admin. denied the use of C-160's when we were in Somalia...it's what the military wanted to use. What happened BTW?

[PeterUK]

Tops,
"Clinton Admin. denied the use of C-160's when we were in Somalia...it's what the military wanted to use. What happened BTW?"

People got killed.The presumption that if you don't fight neither will the opposition,is a fallacy.

[Specter]

CNN....lol...quick poll...LOL...NO PLAN FROM DEMS....just whining...

[PeterUK]

"The AC-130 is a weapon of choice when you want pinpoint fire that also limits collateral damage. The plane also has a comparatively long “on station” capability (it can loiter). I’ll guess that the plane is flying out of Djibouti, but that is a guess."

From the current usage in Somalia(Austin Bay),so refusing the use of AC-130s in Mogadishu probably caused more deaths.

[PeterUK]

CNN "Quick Poll" results:

Do you believe in alien abduction?

Yes 19%

No 81%

[lurker]

Looks like AQ is losing so my optimism is rooting in reality...we are winning! We are winning! We are winning!

[maryrose]

lurker:
We are winning and despite the lack of support from the dems we will emerge victorious
My gut feeling toward dems; erect your hurdles; put up your obstacles; we true believers will run the gauntlet. Because at the end of the day,true freedom for all people is not achieved without a struggle.

[Bob]

Next front will be:

http://frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=26348>Shari'a in the Ivy League

"The war against Islamic radicalism will likely continue for generations and students at Brown and other elite universities invariably will be forced to contend with the issue. If the actions of the Muslim Students Association and Hillel at Brown are any reflection of the future of American leadership on the issue, there is cause to be concern."

...coming to a University near you soon!

[BTW]

"CNN "Quick Poll" results:

Do you believe in alien abduction?

Yes 19%

No 81%"

Thanks PeteUK

You somed it up perfectly. One could not put a neater bow on that package. You are in the
company of those that think alien abductions are
real. Bravo! Numbnuts

[PeterUK]

"You somed it up perfectly"

The word is "summed" You are illiterate as well as stupid BTW.

[clarice]

We are pounding the crap out of the jihadis in Somalia with spec ops forces on the ground and imagery and gunships from the air helping the Ethiopians. And from the EU--condemnation, a suggestion that this will only exacerbate religious tensions. Do they remove the frontal lobes of all EU officials/spokesmen upon their ascending office?

[clarice]

Oh, and in Jordan they foiled an AQ plot against the kingdom.
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/008884.php

[PeterUK]

Clarice,
The EU elite consists of second rank and failed politicians,the rest are simply jobsworths hanging like grim death to their sinecures in Ponziland.Foremost they are leftists opposed to the Great Satan Inc,but they also have a weather eye for the large muslim populations of Europe.

[lurker]

We need to get out of United Nations. United Nations has become a great terrorist cell for the radical jihadists.

Is this coming to America?

http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/014752.php

"Australia can't ban group calling for Sharia in Australia"

Anyone see a picture of a "US-islamized" flag? It has the usual blue square with red and white stripes but the stars replaced with the Islam curved logo. A Muslim vendor actually had it up on his wall in his store.

[lurker]

PUK, what do you think of this?

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/014730.php

"UK: Clerics urge Muslims to ignore British law"

In spite of Tony Blair's words.

[Jane]

I'm happily quite busy lately so once again forgive me for skipping ahead. Is anyone else as excited about Petreous as I am? (Have I got his name right?) From what I've read he certainly sounds like the right man for the job.

[lurker]

And a devout, radical Muslim killed his sister. Why?

Read the link:

http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/014757.php

"Pakistani kills sister for...."

CAIR is now involved with this...

http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/014760.php

"New Hampshire: City school board to review high school Crusader mascot"

And also this one...

http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/014756.php

"Anti-dhimmitude at Wal-Mart: Company refuses to pull video game despite CAIR complaints"

Man, it's getting worse...inside USA. Our legal system is going to get inundated with these hearings, cases, etc. Our US constitution, Bill of Rights, and laws are being seriously threatened.

[lurker]

Jane, my gut feeling is that Bush already had the increased troops over there or in transit prior to the democrats' taking over majority.

He looks to be the right man for the right job at the right time. Abizaid and Casey were the right man at the right time. Now is the time for "fresh eyes". AJStrata is correct.

Anyone keeping up with the attempted Lebanon cout?

[lurker]

Jane, my gut feeling is that Bush already had the increased troops over there or in transit prior to the democrats' taking over majority.

He looks to be the right man for the right job at the right time. Abizaid and Casey were the right man at the right time. Now is the time for "fresh eyes". AJStrata is correct.

Anyone keeping up with the attempted Lebanon cout?

[Specter]

PeterUK,

Glad you "somed" it up for us. CNN Quick Polls...I am still laughing. That is worse that an AP/IPSOS poll. Who watches and reads CNN? Might as well be a NYT quick poll.

And BTW - I wouldn't trust a "quick poll" from Rush Limbaugh either, for the same reason. Get a grip!

[PeterUK]

Specter,
Only coincidental that the CNN Quick Poll backs the standpoint of Dirty Harry and Nancy with the Laughing Teeth of course.

[BTW]

PeteUk

It be gen'rly except'd dat korrect'n otters spell'n in da commentz secshun of blog is innane drones.

[Specter]

I'd agree BTW butt ur such a purrfect target.

[PeterUK]

Well junior it is going to change,sloppy language indicates a sloppy mind,in your case all slop and no bucket.Now run along and finish your education,learn to read then you might understand,until then stick to spraying toilet walls.

[TCO]

PeterUK: When were the C-130s requested and how and whose deaths would they have prevented? Please be specific. I have a dead classmate over there. Want to know if you really have the details here or are hip-firing (have seen that in the past from others discussing Somalia).

[BTW]

Specter

"I'd agree BTW butt ur such a purrfect target."

You couldn't hit the broad side of Rosie O'Donald.

I know imitation is said to be the highest form of
flattery but for PeteUk's sake could you try having an original idea.

[windansea]

When were the C-130s requested and how and whose deaths would they have prevented?

it's a gunship doofus...we use it to kill bad guys

I have a dead classmate over there.

and this makes you an expert or what?

[windansea]

Hey look...BTW got a spell check

[clarice]

Isn't it Rosie O'Donnell?

[Soylent Red]

Hey look...BTW got a spell check
Isn't it Rosie O'Donnell?

Spell check: On
Fact check: Disabled

[clarice]

More stuff on Somalia.
http://richardminiter.pajamasmedia.com/2007/01/08/us_hunts_al_qaeda_in_somalia.php

[Soylent Red]

Mark my words Clarice...

In the next twelve months we're all gonna need to learn how to spell and type names like "Eritrea" and "Djibouti".

The war spreads south.

[clarice]

I've got my Queesn of Sheba outfit ironed and packed Sheikh Yerbouti. All we need is the camel caravan.

[topsecretk9]

When were the C-130s requested and how and whose deaths would they have prevented?

Gawd, this is hilarious question (sad too!). Last night I spoke with a friend and mentioned the US C-130 air-strikes in Somalia and he instantly said "That's what they wanted to use in Somalia and Clinton refused because he didn't want us to look like "big meanies"

I have a dead classmate over there.

Shame, do you even KNOW about these guys? (warning, very graphic)

Do you all remember on of the soldiers murdered in Mogadishu - dad? Probably not. He did warrant an 0ne 80th of the attention of Cindy Sheehan. He was PISSED at Clinton, that's why the media deep sixed the poor man, of course. His suffering didn't matter. Dead republican, kinda thing.

[topsecretk9]

Ok...needed to preview last post (use imagination to make up for weirdness), was multi-tasking at the time. I wish there was an aerosol of "sleep" one could buy and spray on children at bedtime.

[TCO]

I still have not seen some good detail. Good links. Specificity on timing of requests, nature of requests, number of who died, discussion of how 130s would have been employed in what missions and if those specific missions were our troops got killed. Sounds like you all are continuing to bullshit. Oh...and screw Windansea. Prefer OB Pier.

[windansea]

OB pier is for fags...

[Specter]

BTW,

I was probably using computers when you were in diapers. Get over it. Is that all you can do is say "but....but..."?

[maryrose]

BTW:
The use of 130's is how we fight the War on Terror. It's effective and kills terrorists. Perhaps you need a manual entitiled"How To Fight the War on Terror" Meanwhile share the info with your dem friends who still appear clueless.

[Cecil Turner]

I still have not seen some good detail. Good links. Specificity on timing of requests, nature of requests . . .

It's hard to see how one would provide exact detail on a bunch of Tactical Air Requests that were never submitted (and wouldn't be, because the asset wasn't available). Additional fire support might've helped during "Blackhawk Down" . . . proving it would or wouldn't have is obviously impossible.

[TCO]

One of the reasons I'm asking is that I want to know if there is some real thought behind this or if it is a blog shibeloth being pushed forward. Some journalistic or historical analysis would be helpful. I'm not interested in error carried forward or stuff passed from person to person with no sourcing.

I do know (per the Bowden book) that the delivery of additional armor would have had NO effect on the raid that went wrong, because the time to get them in theater means that they would have arrived after that raid. Yet, you still hear people unthinkingly proclaiming this lack of armor as a contributor to the failed raid. Now perhaps the 130s (and support) could have arrived in theater earlier. Yet, I'm still wary given the mistake made on the armor of people here spouting scuttlebut instead of analysis backed by facts and careful consideration.

Regarding the employment of the 130s and if they would have impacted the engagement during (or presumably after) the raid went wrong, that is a legitimate (open) question that I have. I am not a gun ship employment expert. But someone is. And if we are going to think and judge the hypothesis that they would have helped, a VERY reasonable question is related to employment. Heck...would artillery have helped or is someone here going to complain about lack of that?

[PeterUK]

"I have a dead classmate over there."

I was under the impression that the US brought the dead home,looks more like tasteless emotional blackmail to me.

[TCO]

Michael Tanner, USNA 1988, lost off-shore of Somalia on a search and rescue mission when his helicopter crashed with 2 others, one survived. Would you like to walk over to Hospital Point and see the plaque for him at the (new) crematorium area of the USNA cemetary.

[PeterUK]

Not really connected with C-130s TCO and the particular engagement in Mogadishu was 1993.

[TCO]

Of course. Mike was not connected to that battle. He was left behind, because he was lost at sea.

Now, could we have the sourcing, the analysis on the C-130 comment? I want something better than word of mouth, blog comment crap, that has not even been checked back to a source. Not even been thought about.

[clarice]

Is it just me or has the inter sect violence in Iraq died down in the days since the President's speech and the obviously new rules of engagement?

[clarice]

CBS/AP) As President Bush tries to sell his new Iraq policy, his administration is keeping an eye on another threat — Iran, reports CBS News national security correspondent David Martin.

U.S. officials tell CBS News that American forces have begun an aggressive and mostly secret ground campaign against networks of Iranians that had been operating with virtual impunity inside Iraq.

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told Congress on Friday that Iranians are now on the target list.

"Twice in the last two or three weeks, in pursuit of those networks, when we have gone and captured those cells, we've captured Iranians," said Gen. Peter Pace.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/01/12/politics/main2355951.shtml

[TCO]

Maybe so Clarice. But I think we are biting off more than we can (or should in terms of cost/benefit) chew by fighting all comers rather than picking a side. It's not sustainable, nor will it change the equation on the ground after we leave. This whole exercise is just a wiggle of the worm before we finally pull out.

[TCO]

Going after Iranians will make us feel good (to hit something...not meant sarcastically...offensive operations are what it is all about) and would be the right thing to do if we were really intent on staying indefinitely, for instance if this were our territory. But I really doubt it will change anything structurally or long term. It's like when we hear about a stepped up US border patrol. Or about some big drug bust at the port.

[PeterUK]

"Now, could we have the sourcing, the analysis on the C-130 comment? I want something better than word of mouth,"
After your sleazy emotional gambit,do your own research pal.

[clarice]

TCO-Iran's supplying the anti-Coalition militias and running intel operatives inside Iraq are acts of war which we didn;t respond to in the vain hope that not doing so was in our interest. It has been a disaster for the Iraqis and has long deserved a forceful response.
BTW I don't recall any big bombings since the Iranians and their docs were picked up..any more than I saw a huge escalation of incidents since Saddam met his maker.
To win you have to fight to win.

[lurker]

I wonder if there's something afoot inside Lebanon...anyone know?

[lurker]

Actually, TCO, our military and intelligence are embedded in so many countries around the world.

[lurker]

Is it just me or has the inter sect violence in Iraq died down in the days since the President's speech and the obviously new rules of engagement?

I noticed it, too. One blogger implied that Al-Sadr decided to change his Jihad...from America to Shiite because he knows that if we are left alone, we will deploy sooner.

[TCO]

Pete: There has been no sleazy emotional gambit, you moron. We lost people in Somalia in places other than that battle. Just cause it's top of mind for you, doesn't mean that it is the only thing that happened in that campaign.

And I say again, that comments like that C-130 one from people who can't back them up are useless.

Next short snippet of a comment (your specialty) will go unreplied to. (If you engage at length, I will.)

[clarice]

lurker, Sadr is Shiite,I think you misspoke.

[lurker]

Claim: Iran is CLOSING its borders to the Kurdish north!

Claim: US Troops Surround Iranian Aircraft

Waiting to see how much truth this is.

Riehl reports Malki's choice for his commander.

[TCO]

Clarice: Perhaps. But the question begs how much do we fight to win. I could end illegal immigration and the drug war with draconian measures. Are we going from zero to the level put forth in those arenas? Or are we going to the level needed for results? There are questions here of efficacy and logistics. Also, a real question of what will happen when we leave. I mean, if the jellyfish of an Iraqi governmment couldn't get stood up with 3 years of having us in country, is the next year or two with us going after (some) Iranians going to change things? Or will it just delay the same result?

[lurker]

Sunni, sorry. I'm trying to find that post.

[lurker]

Found it!

In hindsight, Sunni jihadis not sure killing Shiites was such a good idea; Update: Mahdi Army lowers its profile

Guess...lowing its profile so we can leave Iraq sooner...

[clarice]

Sistani met with him before the announcement..undoubtedly explained it to that numbskull and if we interdict his resupply and stand up to Iran maybe he;ll get the message.

[TCO]

Lurk:

1. I agree. These agents (really all the miscreants) are likely to settle down for a while if things get hot enough, but will pop out again when it's not. That's the nature of assymetric warfare.

2. Westhawk (thanks smartfer for showing me him) has excellent comments on the Shia/Sunni situation and how we should not make our job to protect the Sunnis.

http://www.westhawk.blogspot.com/

[clarice]

lurker, I take it it's a Turkish paper and the Turks are making noises again about the Kurds. More troublesome is Maliki's choice of commander..

[PeterUK]

TCO,
Yo mendaciously linked the death of your classmate to the use or lack of C-130 in Somalia,despite that he died in 1988 and the raid was in 1993.For what reason,to add credence to your post,pretty scummy in my view.
Roll your ego in TCO,I have no interest in engaging in conversation with you.