Monday Morning Mortification

The always fascinating Michael Lewis (Liar Poker and more) goes back to his Wall Street for an article on catastrophe bonds - bonds linked to earthquakes, hurricanes and the like - as part of the financial markets evolution in response to Katrina.

However... in the course of neatly illustrating a point about pricing two independent events, Mr. Lewis and the star of his article, Mr. Seo (a hedge fund manager in Westport, CT) provide an example which is over-simplified to the point of glaring inaccuracy.  I have no doubt Mr. Seo spotted the error immediately; I suspect that Mr. Lewis was also aware of the problem, but pressed on in pursuit of a broader point.

But we don't press on in pursuit of broader points around here - if "No nit left behind!" is not already the unofficial site motto, it will be soon.  So let's discuss on Sunday what Mr. Seo's clients will be ribbing him about on Monday:

The logic is what Seo stumbled upon back in 2000 at Lehman Brothers after someone handed him a weird option to price. An industrial company had called Lehman with a problem. It operated factories in Japan and California, both near fault lines. It could handle one of the two being shut down by an earthquake, but not both at the same time. Could Lehman Brothers quote a price for an option that would pay the company $10 million if both Japan and California suffered earthquakes in the same year? Lehman turned to its employee with a reputation for being able to price anything. And Seo thought it over. The earthquakes that the industrial company was worried about were not all that improbable: roughly once-a-decade events. A sloppy solution would be simply to call an insurance company and buy $10 million in coverage for the Japanese quake and then another $10 million in coverage for the California quake; the going rate was $2 million for each policy. “If I had been lazy, I could have just quoted $4 million for the premium,” he says. “It would have been obnoxious to do so, but traders have been known to do it.” If either quake happened, but not both, he would have a windfall gain of $10 million. (One of his policies would pay him $10 million, but he would not be required to pay anything to the quake-fearing corporation, since it would get paid only if both earthquakes occurred.)

But there was a better solution. He needed to buy the California quake insurance for $2 million, its market price, but only if the Japanese quake happened in the same year. All Seo had to do, then, was buy enough Japanese quake insurance so that if the Japanese quake occurred, he could afford to pay the insurance company for his $10 million California insurance policy: $2 million. In other words, he didn’t need $10 million of Japanese quake insurance; he needed only $2 million. The cost of that was a mere $400,000. For that sum, he could insure the manufacturing company against its strange risk at little risk to himself. Anything he charged above $400,000 was pure profit for Lehman Brothers.

Hmm.  So Lehman pays $400,000 for a policy that will pay off $2 million if an earthquake hits Japan.  If there is such an earthquake, they will then take the $2 million and buy $10 million of coverage for California.  If no earthquake hits California, Lehman breaks even; if a subsequent earthquake does hit California, Lehman collects $10 million on the conventional California policy and pays $10 million on the double-whammy policy.  Fair enough, but - what happens if the first relevant earthquake that year hits California?

As I read it, Lehman is underinsured - if an earthquake hits California, Lehman will then want an additional $1.6 million to top up its Japan policy from $2 million to $10 million.  Where is that coming from?

As a first pass to the correct answer, let's extend Seo's strategy a bit - in addition to the $400,000 premium paid to buy $2 million of protection in Japan, let's double up and also buy enough California insurance to provide for a $2 million payout if a quake hits California; the intention is that the proceeds will be used to buy $10 million of coverage in Japan following a California quake.

That suggests a final answer double that presented here, but a further adjustment is necessary.  If a first quake hits in Japan, the Japanese policy will provide enough to buy $10 million of coverage in California.  But Lehman will have already bought $2 million of coverage in California, so there is a $2 million of excess coverage here.  The right answer will have Lehman buying something less than $10 million in each market.

In fact, given the relative simplicity of this problem, since the payouts are 5 times the premium, Lehman ought to buy 1/6 the target coverage amount for both Japan and California, or roughly $1.67 million for each.  Then, if a first earthquake hits at one site Lehman can buy 5 * $1.67 = $8.33 million for the other site, add it to the $1.67 million already held, and have a total of $10 million in insurance for the as-yet unhit site.

By that reckoning, the correct premium would be for coverage of $3.33 million, or $666,666 - a devilishly clever answer indeed.

Obviously, this strategy does not work if the independence of the events break down.  For example, if insurers decide that Pacific rim earthquakes are geologically correlated, or that (based on the experience of the first quake) building codes have been inadequate throughout the region, an earthquake in Japan might increase pricing in California, or vice versa.

PUNS WE WOULD NEVER DARE, UNLESS, WELL... :  Did I read this in the Times?  Props to Mr. Lewis for sneaking it past the editor:

First, we get some of Mr. Seo's family history:

But when John [Seo] told [his mother] that he was leaving the university for Wall Street, she wept. His father, a hard man to annoy, said, “The devil has come to you as a prostitute and has asked you to lie down with her.”

Quite a colorful dad.  In the next paragraph:

Tail risk, broadly speaking, is whatever financial cataclysm is believed by markets to have a 1 percent chance or less of happening. In the foreign-exchange market, the tail event might be the dollar falling by one-third in a year; in the bond market, it might be interest rates moving 3 percent in six months; in the stock market, it might be a 30 percent crash. “If there’s been a theme to John’s life,” says his brother Nelson, “it’s pricing tail.”

Pricing what, and who is lying down with whom now?  Geez, what kind of clown would slip that into a seemingly-serious endeavor?

Comments

[Walter]

Economics, math, and titillation. Now that's why Just One Minute is required reading!

[Paul Zrimsek]

How long does it take to arrange for an insurance policy of that size, I wonder? And what happens if it takes longer than the time between the one earthquake and the other?

[kim]

When God rolls the dice, it's hard to make sure the House always wins.
===================

[Jane]

How long does it take to arrange for an insurance policy of that size, I wonder?

Not long I suspect. First of all every quote has a shelf life ("This quote is good for 30 days".) So you could just keep getting a new one when the old one expires. If that is the case the policy could be bound in minutes.

[kim]

So the insurance company continuously binds itself without anything in return? Something's organically wrong with that, Jane, but I don't know what.
======================

[Ralph L]

Earthquakes always hit Japan first, because it's later in the day there.

TM, you need to recalculate this so they NET $10 million, which is surely what the company wanted.

For that cost of insurance, they could probably rebuild the plants elsewhere.

[Ralph L]

"No nit left behind!"
That's a lousy motto.

[Jane]

Kim,

Well if you think about it, it's no different than any other offer to purchase. There is no binding until the premium us paid. It's no different than anything else you buy. If the risk does change, the premium will reflect that in the next 30 day cycle.

[Lawrence D. Loeb]

I noticed the same thing when I read the article last night.

The cost of each option would be $333,334 (to cover the rounding cost).

The missing piece here, and this is a nitpick, is the time that it would take to receive the payout from the first earthquake. There is a fairly long time lag between when the earthquake occurs and the time of payout.

Presumably, it would be necessary to front the $1,666,667 remaining premium for the other policy. There should be some compensation for the time value of the cash expended by Lehman (or whoever the broker is).

[Ralph L]

If the first earthquake is cataclysmic, won't the price of earthquake insurance go up worldwide, and won't it take longer to get a policy when everyone wants one?

If they're that worried, they should get a $5mil policy in each country, or move their plants.

[Nick Kasoff]

> "No nit left behind!"
> That's a lousy motto.

I agree. How about "Our nits are bigger!"

Nick Kasoff
The Thug Report

[kim]

'move their plants'. I knew it was organic. Why would the quote necessarily stay the same for a month?
==================================

[Pofarmer]

Why does the company go to a hedge fund? If you have two 10 mil plants in two seperate countries don't you have somebody smart enough to figure out how to buy insurance?

[Ralph L]

Nick, that was a pun on nits (lice eggs).

[Clarice]

August 26, 2007
Kerry misses deadline
Clarice Feldman
Beldar notes that John F. Kerry let his opportunity to sue the Swift Vets for defamation close, despite Beldar's reminder. He's not surprised, nor should you be.
When I first brought it to his attention in September 2005, I reminded Sen. John F. Kerry that - based on the publication date on or about August 25, 2004, of Unfit for Command: Swift Boat Veterans Speak Out Against John Kerry by John E. O'Neill and Jerome R. Corsi - Sen. Kerry had already allowed the one-year statutes of limitations for defamation to expire in Texas (where Mr. O'Neill resides), New Jersey (where Dr. Corsi resides), and the District of Columbia (where their publisher Regnery Publishing, Inc. has its principal place of business and Sen. Kerry has his own regular place of business).

But as I noted then, Sen. Kerry's home state of Massachusetts has a very unusual, extremely generous and pro-plaintiff three-year limitations period for defamation claims. Massachusetts' three-year statute of limitations for defamation claims made it the very last feasible venue in which Sen. Kerry conceivably could file suit and gain his public vindication, if the SwiftVets' allegations about him were false. Those claims were certainly, indeed deliberately, injurious to his reputation; his damages arguably include the loss of the 2004 presidential election, however that might be valued in dollars and cents; and if John Kerry could hope to find a home-town advantage anywhere, surely it would be there. But now he's let the incredibly generous Massachusetts statute of limitations run out, too. [snip]

So let's drop the snark and call a spade a spade: The very last thing John Kerry wants is to ever give the SwiftVets the legal tools they'd need to conclusively document their claims, because truth is, of course, a complete defense to defamation claims. Kerry doesn't deserve vindication, and he knows he could never get it in court. In court, there would be compulsory discovery of witnesses and documents, followed by a fair and disciplined adversary process, followed by a definitive determination of the truth or falsity of the SwiftVets' charges - a determination that he damn well knows would go against him. Instead, the haze of time and the near-universal bluster of his mainstream media allies (who continue to insist that the SwiftVets' claims were "debunked" and that Kerry was victimized) has given him a far better result than he could ever get in court.
He adds if he's wrong, Kerry can sue him for defamation and offers some very generous terms.

h/t Dan Collins

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2007/08/post_62.html>Lying Traitor Lets Media Carry the Ball

[kim]

Wake up, wake up everyone. Political and spiritual leaders have settled the Iraqi Civil War, and the globe is cooling.

Did you know John Kerry served in Vietnam?
==============

[Jane]

If the first earthquake is cataclysmic, won't the price of earthquake insurance go up worldwide, and won't it take longer to get a policy when everyone wants one?

If I recall correctly, if you do a frequency/severity analysis you can pretty much predict with precision both the number of occurrences and the severity with precision over a specific period of time.

What you can't predict is when during that period of time the losses will occur.

Back in ancient history I was a risk manager, and in one year we predicted 3 major losses costing about $2m. We were exactly on the money. Two of the three losses happened on two days in a row. It freaked me out, but at the year's end our predictions were right on the money.

[kim]

Steven Lee Myers in the Times is so last week. He's the one who ought to be mortified this morning.
===============

[Jane]

NY Times reporting Gonzales has resigned.

[kim]

I think the news is that he intends to do so. There's many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip.
=============================

[cboldt]

The news is the formal announcement will come later today.

[hit and run]

Question: Why is Gonzales stepping down now?

Or put another way, why not during the Congressional vacation, so that Bush could recess appoint the replacement AG? Too politically costly?

Or to get to the crux of my question, why not a full pardon of Libby and then recess appoint him as AG?

Making sure to have cameras trained on all Dem leaders for the moment they heard the news.

And perhaps paramedics standing at the ready as well.

(Oh, ok, maybe Libby is too far fetched even for my fevered imagination. Let's say John Bolton...)

[hit and run]

Paul Wolfowitz still looking for work?

[kim]

Kmiec?
====

[hit and run]

From the first time for everything department: K-Lo hearts me...

Even if she took out the cameras/paramedics comment.

UPDATE: She's got a fever ... more cowbell ...yada yada yada

[Ann]

Cerulean,

Are you one of the e-mailers having fun at the Corner?
Can I have your autograph before you stop posting here at JOM. :(

[Ann]

Cerulean,

I knew It!!!

Actually, can I have a signed COLORED photograph. :)

[kim]

Really, who could most effectively counter Schumer's influence. That'll be the one.
======================================

[hit and run]

Really, who could most effectively counter Schumer's influence. That'll be the one.

Someone who would make Schumer a little uncomfortable in making direct attacks, with their history, is Michael Steele, to his, well, credit. Though, I suppose direct attacks aren't the primary danger Schumer presents...

[Jae]

Free Tom. We have his genetics.

Quakers and Shakers? You know Ghandi said he was an earth mover, if you're really tired and like helping the poor and the oppressed. Maybe it's a catacysim.

Jane, like Fonda, alot of meoy in natural disasters. If you check terror, you'll see 9/11 was a winning deal. Old building, going out of business, federal insurance for all buildings. If you follow the money making on terror, you end up in the ME. Lebanon has learned alot from Isreal and the big payouts are still on the way for other ME countries, even though Isreal got a 30 billion payout. Hilly wanted long term money immedialtely after 9/11.

So, let's say someone once controlled these by accident, like in went to church and got damned by Lucifer to do earthquakes in primarily christian countries like Mexico. It's really not the person's fault, it's Lucifer trying to help out because he's been wronged with no recourse. Later, we had Kofi making a deal for the Tsunami(met with Bush) and Lucifer making a deal for New Orleans. The latter was exceptional and it's neat how the mayor ran up that death toll, making each death worth about a million. NO is also corrput and worships the dead. We're hoping for Lucifer to see the light on NO again this year, there may be hope.

Gonzo is leaving. Brain left last week. Gonzo got in trouble because he mentioned not rewewing the NSA charter at Congress and Specter(yes, as in spook and spy)Plame's phone company- hershey PA - NSA pal; like dad who worked there while Joe's dip dad- CIA- worked Spain against terrorists) ) got mad and went after him. The five year thing was a scam and everyone got to figure out all Fitz's Harvard IIPA pals(yes, they're classfifed as informants and treated the same as Plame) and they're all blown, but that's how they busted Ames(too curious) and Plame; but Plame got away with it(being too curious, breaking the five year law, getting everyone killed - YES, we want Tom back and we have his genetics) and maybe that was what CIA wanted Ames to do, but, unfortunately he got caught.

Free Tom. He's just tail risk like Ames and Plame. We have his genetics.

[Pofarmer]

No kidding. Why Gonzales now? Most of the Prosecutor firing non-scandal has passed.

And, I heart John Bolton for that job.

Hope Bush doesn't nominate Meyers again.

[kim]

I insist on believing you have a clue.
======================================

[lurker]

In retrospect, this might turn out to be excellent news because if the Democrats makes the confirmation process a very long, difficult one, it just adds to another step to further backfire the Democrats into oblivion.

I just had to laugh at Schumer making this comment:

Senator Schumer said that “Democrats will not obstruct or impede a nominee who we are confident will put the rule of law above political considerations.”

Right.

Update: Bush may make use of recess appointments this time...good to the remainder of his term.

[ann]

I vote for Ted Olson.

[ann]

lurker,

I was driving my car at the time of Chucky Schumer's comments. Thank goodness there were no small children around. There is a special place in hell for that man!

[Pofarmer]

Aw, c'mon ann. I'm sure that Schumer is willing to work with the administration in a very bi-partisan way. Just like Pelosi and Kennedy.

[Clarice]

For days, the rumor has been circulating that the AG would resign and chertoff would be his replacement. Other rumors are that the wheels have been greased for his confirmation--part of the no recess appointments quid pro quo.
Why not during the kerfuffle? C'mon--that would have lent credence to the thin claims of improper conduct with which the Demswere charging him.

[kim]

Now I wonder if there is a Spanish bombing connection to Ashcroft's hospital visit, besides the timing.
================================

[kim]

OK, C, if Schumer's on board, why should he be trusted?
=======================

[kim]

I'd shy.
=======

[Clarice]

kim, I've no idea if the rumor is true or not, but I suspect the Dem leaders can read polls, too, and they aren't getting any payoff for their present conduct.

[SunnyDay]

great article, Clarice.

re Gonzales - I hope this means some indictments are coming down, and Gonzales is getting out of the way.

Bolton - wouldn't that be delicious?

[kim]

Fortunately, Cookie.
===================

[MayBee]

clarice:Other rumors are that the wheels have been greased for his confirmation--part of the no recess appointments quid pro quo....

kim, I've no idea if the rumor is true or not, but I suspect the Dem leaders can read polls, too, and they aren't getting any payoff for their present conduct.

Ah, that makes sense. The Dems surely feel trapped, knowing that their investigation is going nowhere yet unable to find a stopping point. The Admin also feels trapped, knowing the investigations aren't going to stop until Gonzales goes.
This way, they both have a (kinda)graceful way to end this.

[Jane]

Michael Barone suggested that Schumer et al may refuse to confirm anyone until they get the 8 million documents they have been requesting.

If that happens, Bush needs to go for Bolton in a recess appointment.

[Topsecretk9]

Reason 87,634 Democrats never mean anything they say... much like the long list of Democrats who warned about the grave danger posed by Saddam and his WMD's before Bush, we have this beauty ---

Chuck Schumer on the Gonzales appointment, replacing Ashcroft

"It's encouraging that the president has chosen someone less polarizing. We will have to review his record very carefully, but I can tell you already he's a better candidate than John Ashcroft."

recall how the Democrats have dusted off the polarizing Ashcroft as the DOJ champion in recent months...

[kim]

I shy, you shy, everybody shy shy.

Snakes on the Judiciary Committee.
================================

[MayBee]

Bush should nominate Schumer.

[Clarice]

Scrappleface, says he's picking Karl Rove.

[cathy]

H&R wonders:

...why not a full pardon of Libby and then recess appoint him as AG?

...

(Oh, ok, maybe Libby is too far fetched even for my fevered imagination. Let's say John Bolton...)

Nah, you missed the best idea of all -- recess appoint Libby without the full pardon.

meow... hissssss... merrchh...

(Riches beyond the dreams of avarice for the person with the popcorn concession!)

[Clarice]

NRO The Corner offers this suggestion:

The Next AG [Mark R. Levin]

Why not just formalize Patrick Fitzgerald's role as the roving attorney general? O.K., bad joke. Or maybe the president can appoint Arlen Specter and after he gets confirmed, fire him. O.K., another bad joke.

08/27 11:29 AM

[hit and run]

From: hit and run
Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 11:18 AM
To: Bush, George W.
Subject: Attorney General
Importance: High

No, but I can reach her online. I'll let you know.

  From: Bush, George W.
  Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 11:09 AM
  To: hit and run
  Subject: Re: Attorney General
  Importance: High

  Do you have her number?

    From: hit and run
    Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 10:47 AM
    To: Bush, George W.
    Subject: Attorney General
    Importance: High

    Dear Mr. President,

    I am writing in response to the news that Attorney General
    Alberto Gonzales is resigning. I am sure that
    this is difficult news for you. I am sure as well
    that the decision on who to nominate to replace him
    is weighing heavily on your mind.

    It doesn't have to.

    Please accept my humble, yet extremely confident suggestion
    for the person who should be your next Attorney General:
    Clarice Feldman.

    The only hesitation I have in formally making
    this suggestion is her possible reluctance to accept
    the nomination. I urge you to contact her immediately
    and make every effort to persuade her to join your administration
    and serve our country.

    And thank you, Mr. President, for your service to our country.

    Respectfully,
    Hit and run

[SunnyDay]

From: Clarice F
Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 11:56 AM
To: Bush, George W.
Subject: Attorney General
Importance: High

Mr President:

Can I wear my pj's and work from home?

Respectfully,
Clarice

[Clarice]

And SMOKE at work?

Thanks but no thanks, HIT.

[cathyf]

Just think, clarice, as your first act you could sign an order prohibiting nylons and heels...

(I had to give up wearing big girl shoes years ago...)

[Clarice]

Now, you're tempting me,cathy..bad girl.

[cathyf]

If you work from home in your pj's you can smoke however your household rules allow...

(But I think you would need silk pajamas, a long holder on the cig, and to address everyone as "dahling")

[hit and run]

From: Cheney, Richard
Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 11:32 AM
To: hit and run
Cc: Bush, George W.
Subject: Re: Attorney General
Importance: High

If she refuses, ask her if she would consider an appointment as special counsel.

To go after Schumer.

    From: Bush, George W.
    Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 11:03 AM
    To: Cheney, Richard
    Subject: FW: Attorney General
    Importance: High

    Your thoughts?

[Clarice]

What about a two minute recess appointment--just long enough to direct Fitz that his appointment as acting AG is over, and to direct the folks paying the unindicted conspirators (CAIR and Islamic Society of America) out of DOJ funds that they too should clean out their desks?

[Sue]

By day's end, the above will be taken as fact and Bush will be asking Bolten who Clarice Feldman is and how her name got into the mix for AG. ::grin::

Providing, of course, Bush doesn't already know who Clarice Feldman is, since she vacations with Rush in Wyoming and gets a regular name-drop on that program.

[hoosierhoops]

From: Bush, George W.
Sent: Monday, August 27, 2007 11:09 AM
To: Clarice F.
Subject: Re: Attorney General
Importance: High

Good morning Clarice..Got a few follow up questions for you.
1. Ya'all from Texas Clarice? It's gett'n a little lonely around these parts without Ms. Miers around.
2. Ya like to sling alittle mud now and then Clarice? That Sen. Shummer is just driving me crazy.. Just love to see ya gobslap him sometime. hehe that would be funny.
3. Well Clarice, I got me about 20-30 more AG's I'd like to dump..Can ya sit in front of a congressional hearing and tell to go to hell for me? Need a little starch in them britches missy..
4. You and them crazy drink'n JOMer's can only trash the White House on friday nights..
otherwise keep it in a beltway bar..
Well Clarice, have your people get ahold of my people..
Regards,
GWB

[hit and run]

Clarice, I need the following information in order to submit an application on your behalf:

* Required Field
PERSONAL DATA
For prefix use Mr., Mrs., Ms., Miss, Dr., Senator, Judge, Mayor, etc.
* Prefix:
* First Name:
Middle Name:
* Last Name:
Suffix includes Sr., Jr., III, MD, etc.
Suffix:
Just input numbers.
* Social Security No.:
___-__-___
Check appropriate box "yes" or "no".
* Veteran:
Yes No
* U.S. Citizen:
Yes No
Just input numbers.
* Home Phone#:
Work Phone#:
Extension:
Cellular Phone#:
Home Fax#:
Work Fax#:
Email Address:

[Sue]

I'm sorry, Hoosier, but you need to stick to midwestern accents. Your southern Bush accent sucks. We would never say gobsmack and you and them? No way, it would be straight up y'all.

[Sue]

Hmm...gobslap would not be used either.

[hit and run]

Sue:
By day's end, the above will be taken as fact and Bush will be asking Bolten who Clarice Feldman is and how her name got into the mix for AG. ::grin::

Providing, of course, Bush doesn't already know who Clarice Feldman is, since she vacations with Rush in Wyoming and gets a regular name-drop on that program.

And remember, when I vacationed in WY, Cheney was there as well, and I got to say hi

[Sue]

H&R,

Yes, but does he do the name-droppy thingy with you?

[Clarice]

No one in his/her right mind wants this job.Maybe it's time for DoJ to do what the CIA has done--let all their good people resign, form consulting firms and hire them to do the real work while the folks on the payroll wor on such top level things like creating diversity quilts.

[SunnyDay]

"y'all" is singular. "All y'all" is plural.

[cathyf]

I can just picture clarice in the judiciary committee hearing room, in a marathon session, in a non-smoking room. I think she'll have no trouble whatsoever telling ole' upChuck Schumer to go **** himself.

[Sue]

Sunny,

Like aloha, we say y'all coming and going. The most overused word in the southern language.

[Topsecretk9]

Why not just formalize Patrick Fitzgerald's role as the roving attorney general? O.K., bad joke. Or maybe the president can appoint Arlen Specter and after he gets confirmed, fire him. O.K., another bad joke.

Gee, I can't decide which one I like best - I think I likey the Specter strateegery best.

[Sue]

What's the downside to nominating Fitzgerald? Democrats could not make any objection to him and he would have to recuse himself on Libby appeals.

[HoosierHoops]

The hoopster defers to the lady from Sulfer Springs, Texas for all dialect issues..
my bad Sue...

[SunnyDay]

Rush's stand-in seems to be discussing our talking points re Gonzales. Is he reading here for material?

[HoosierHoops]

God..It's Monday..
I can't spell.. Sulpher Springs
I can't Talk..you and them
And most obviously ( here is your chance to pile on )
I can't think straight..

[Sue]

You still can't spell, but who cares? Especially since I don't advertise where I am.

[Sue]

::grin:: But on the bright side, I'm not really there either. My ISP just goes through there. Now, guess which small town I'm really in?

[HoosierHoops]

Sue: There is this really neat little applet that shows all the ISP's that visits JOM constantly.. It's fun to see where people are visiting from.. You were the only texas visit this morning..So Barney Fife deducted ya'all ( right?) were from there..
I don't know how to link ( oh no...i can't spell, link, think or talk) but this the site: ( i guess copy and paste it )
http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s20justoneminute&r=15

[Topsecretk9]

FYI

NEW YORK: The U.S. government is entitled to portray a Texas businessman as so eager to win oil contracts from Saddam Hussein's government that he told Iraqi officials about the impending U.S. invasion of Iraq and encouraged opposition to the war, prosecutors say.

The government is arguing in court papers that jurors should hear about statements that Oscar S. Wyatt Jr. made to win favor with those who handed out lucrative Iraqi oil contracts. The documents were filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan late Thursday in advance of Wyatt's Sept. 4 trial.

Wyatt, 83, is accused of conspiring to pay millions of dollars in kickbacks to Saddam regime to win contracts under the United Nations' oil-for-food program in Iraq. If convicted, Wyatt could face more than 60 years in prison.

Prosecutors said the evidence is even more relevant if Wyatt's lawyers are going to defend him by referencing acts of patriotism in his life.

Lawyers for Wyatt have said in court papers that the statements about their client should not be allowed in the trial because they are highly prejudicial and irrelevant and because they allege that Wyatt committed treason and helped an enemy of the U.S.

The statements about him were contained in a diary kept by an employee of Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization. The diary claims that Wyatt bragged at a Jan. 27, 2003, meeting of the organization that he had convinced a U.S. senator to speak out against an attack on Iraq...

-----

...But Wyatt's most famous exploit took place in December 1990 when the U.S. was on the brink of its first war with Iraq. Before Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait that August, Coastal had been one of the world's biggest buyers of Iraqi crude. Wyatt had also been negotiating to sell Iraq a half-interest in Coastal's refining and marketing operations. Wyatt and former Secretary of the Treasury--and Coastal board member--John Connally flew to Iraq on Coastal's corporate jet. After meetings with Tariq Aziz, then Iraq's deputy foreign minister, and Hussein himself, Wyatt brought back two dozen U.S. hostages who were being held as human shields against an expected U.S. attack...

The "Diary" sounds interesting - incidetially, Wilson mentions John Connally coming to Iraq in his book - isn't Wilson's big claim to fame the release of hostages? Stay tuned...

[Clarice]

ts, I'm working with barcepundit on the Spanish story. Thnx for the tip.

******
I love Mickey Kaus' take on the Fla primary kerfuffle:
"Hung for a Sheep! Emailer P.R. has a logical suggestion for Florida, which is being punished by Howard Dean and the DNC with loss of its convention delegates for scheduling a primary on January 29, right after the Iowa and New Hampshire contests:

The Dems in Florida should go Howard Dean one better and just move themselves in front of Iowa and NH. If their votes aren't going to count for a primary after those two, why not go all in and schedule a date before both. That will completely nullify their "importance". That threat alone might get their votes back! [E.A.]

Heck, why doesn't Florida moves its primary into November, 2007? I'm almost ready to vote now! It would be worth moving the start of voting up many, many months if it could kill the Iowa caucuses, which have been a proven disaster for the Dems. ... P.S.--The 200% Solution: Better yet, we could have two rounds of primaries. Start with a full roster of non-delegate-selecting 'beauty contests" in 2007, including in the big states. This would winnow the field. Then, just about the time buyer's remorse sets in and we wonder if there's not a better candidate, we could have the second round of real, official, delegate-binding primaries. ...The candidates are already campaigning and debating as if its February, so this schedule couldn't mean that much more work for them. Reporters would love it--they'd get to write about twice as many elections. And the campaigns would probably run out of money, reducing the impact of expensive TV ads! ... Win-win-win. .... 1:27 A.M."

[Rick Ballard]

Is the appointment of Solicitor General Paul Clement as acting Attorney General a hard enough slap at McNulty?

Clement's first move should be to send a herd of decorators to McNulty's office.

[Sue]

Sue: There is this really neat little applet that shows all the ISP's that visits JOM constantly

No problem. I just don't advertise where I am, other than Texas. That you went to the trouble of figuring out where I am seems a little odd to me.

[Sue]

Oh, and if you look up to your right side of this board, you'll notice the sitemeter feature you are describing.

[HoosierHoops]

Sue: It's been an odd day..I was trying to be cute.
I think it's cool to see where all the hits come from to this site..
I live out in the middle of the Corn fields of Indiana who uses an ISP in Silicone Valley..Santa Clara to be exact. I bet no one figures that out.
I must have too much time on my hands :)
well, i'm 0 for 5 today in posting anything useful.. Think I'll go fishing..
Also I never noticed that link for the sitemeter.. 0 for 6.
Have a good day.

[Sue]

I bet no one figures that out.

I bet no one tries. Have a nice day.

[SunnyDay]

Is the appointment of Solicitor General Paul Clement as acting Attorney General a hard enough slap at McNulty?
**********************

I wish we could see McNulty's face and get a quote.

Does this put any kind of crimp in Schumer's style?

[Sue]

Didn't McNulty resign?

[cathyf]

Here's an idea... Bush nominates Leaky Leahy. Then, after he has resigned from the senate, announce that he can't have a security clearance because of his past security breaches, and fire him.

Even better... Nominate Schumer, then the day after he is confirmed, assert that cabinet officials serve at the pleasure of the president and fire him.

[Rick Ballard]

Yeah, he did. In May.

I wonder where I was?

Whoops.

[Sue]

http://news.findlaw.com/cnn/docs/doj/mcnulty51407resltr.html>McNulty resignation letter

He resigned on May 14, 2007.

[Sue]

Oh. Sorry Rick. I was searching while you were posting I guess.

[hit and run]

Well, then by golly that's a slap to Craig S. Morford!

[Sue]

I was going to ask you who Craig S. Morford was (sounded like a Dr. Seuss character) but decided to google it instead. Maybe it's a good thing when people don't know who the #2 at Justice is.

[Topsecretk9]

Is Ace of Spades down? I'm getting a 403 error.

[Elliott]

From: Waxman, Henry
Sent: Monday, August 27th, 2007 2:45 PM
To: Hit and Run
CC: Fielding, Fred
Subject: Subpoena Duces Tecum

Mr. Run:

Certain emails you received from executive branch officials have come to the attention of the House Committee on Oversight and Goverment Reform. As these emails are relevant to ongoing investigations, the committee has issued a subpoena for them and is requesting that you provide them by 5 p.m. EDT on August 29, 2007.

Sincerely,

/s/

Henry A. Waxman
Chairman, Committee on Goverment Oversight and Reform

[Sue]

Top,

I can get on Ace's site.

[EH]

"I wish we could see McNulty's face and get a quote."

Is it beyond the pale to suggest that he would see this as par for the course?

[Topsecretk9]

Thanks Sue - I can now too - he's got 3 versions of the same story up so looks like he may been having posting problems and I just hit it at that time - or something

[Topsecretk9]

More on the diary

Wyatt's lawyers asked a judge to bar evidence suggesting the Coastal Corp. founder told the Iraqis when the U.S. would begin bombing in 2003, the timing of the invasion and how many troops would be sent. The claims, which Wyatt denies, are contained in the diary of a former employee of the Iraqi State Oil Marketing Organization....

...The diary by the ex-Iraqi oil official, Mubdir Al-Khudhair, discusses arms smuggling, celebrates the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, and predicts the subsequent downfall of the U.S., Shargel wrote.

One entry says Wyatt persuaded Sen. Edward Kennedy, a Massachusetts Democrat, to deliver a speech against the Iraq war, Shargel wrote. A Kennedy spokeswoman didn't immediately return a call seeking comment...

...Another defendant in the case, oilman David Chalmers, owner of Houston-based Bayoil (USA) Inc., filed a separate request asking Chin to exclude evidence that Wyatt supplied satellite equipment to Iraq and acted as a foreign agent for Hussein's government. Such evidence might lead jurors to render an ``emotional'' verdict against all defendants, he said. ..

Isn't this interesting? Who in the CIA was assigned to Iraq I wonder?

[Clarice]

It's very interesting, ts. Thnkx for keeping us up to date on it.