Now They Tell Us

No More Fuzzy Math!  David Cloud of the Times provides us with unexpected candor from a "senior Administration official":

“So if you ask for White House math, whatever number we give you, we can guarantee you one thing: that won’t be the right number.”

We await the "I told you so" from Paul Krugman.

Oh, fun's fun.  The quote actually made sense in context, which was troop withdrawals from Iraq:

The announced withdrawals would remove the same number of combat units as were sent to Iraq as part of the increase in forces ordered by President Bush this year. But the White House said troop totals may not return to exactly 133,000, the number deployed before the so-called surge began early this year, because of the need to keep in place specialized units, like the military police and helicopter squadrons.

“It’s not a fixed number, because things change over time,” said a senior administration official, briefing reporters before the speech on the condition of anonymity.

Officials also said it was difficult to give a firm figure for how many soldiers there are in a combat brigade, noting that there can be from 3,500 to 4,500 soldiers, or even more.

“It’s not simply five brigades times 3,500, plus 2,000 here and 4,000 there,” the official said. “So if you ask for White House math, whatever number we give you, we can guarantee you one thing: that won’t be the right number.”

Comments

[hit and run]

You're cutting it close there, TM.

Game starts in less than an hour.

[hit and run]

Red Sox Math:

Before that game, the Red Sox got good news when Ramirez took about 30 swings in batting practice, sending the ball into the center-field bleachers on his last one...

His return could be bad news for New York. Ramirez is hitting .392 (20-for-51) against New York this year and .431 lifetime against Andy Pettitte, who starts Friday for the Yankees against Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Yankees Math:

Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter is hitting .394 (26-for-66) against the Red Sox this year, going 4-for-4 in a 5-0 win on Aug. 30 in the last meeting.

Jeter has homered twice against [Boston starter Matsuzaka], going 4-for-9 in those games.

[Forbes]

And you were just telling us the other day--"A Mind of Their Own"--how these lefties were all about being open minded, and able to deal with complexity and nuance.

I guess it'll be the trash bin for another academic study, eh?

[Semanticleo]

“So if you ask for White House math, whatever number we give you, we can guarantee you one thing: that won’t be the right number.”

Let's be fair. Redeployment is a highly complex affair, fraught with uncertainty.

And who is this anonymous official? How do we know, for sure, he said anything close to the above?

Maybe it was more like; '...we can guarantee you one thing, whatever number we give you, it's the number we give you.'

Imagine how dangerous it would be if we actually knew the number, 'cause then the terrorists would have the number. And we all know what THAT means.

[PeterUK]

If only Moveon gad been around in WWII.

[Sara]

Good for Gary Harmon. I'll bet his readership skyrocketed today. ::smle::

Via Instapundit.

SENATOR KEN SALAZAR PRODUCES the world's quietest Sister Souljah moment, by denouncing the MoveOn "Betrayus" ad, but in a newspaper with a smaller readership than many political blogs.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Gary Harmon of the Grand Junction Daily Sentinel emails:

Prof. Reynolds: Here I sit, damned with faint praise re Salazar’s Sis Souljah? Did you have to mention the size of the readership? Now I feel like the freshman on the first day in the locker room with the seniors. Again.

Actually, we won'€™t apologize for the size of our readership. It'€™s actually growing and not many can say that in this business. What is interesting is that the comments were made in a phone conference involving almost all Colorado media, including the big dailies and AP.

That it made it to our paper might explain why we’re growing and, well, they'€™re not.

[SlimGuy]

Sara

You may want to read this one

President Bush had a sit down today with some top MilBloggers and a couple of embedds in Iraq.

 

A good read. 

[kim]

Hey, Grand Junction got Hsu to cover, too. That place must be really hot.
==============================

[Sara]

Slim, I already blogged that story, but thanks.

[MikeS]

Liberals normally have a high tolerance for ambiguity. However the definitive phrase on the subject of troop reduction is "It’s not a fixed number,...", which is quite a precise statement.

It is this ambiguity with a high degree of specificity that sends liberals reeling. It's similar to the technique that Captain Kirk uses to destroy evil cybernetic adversaries.

[Rick Ballard]

Gates tossed out a number of 100,000 today. Just to keep the loons heads spinning, I suppose.

If the sheik rental agreement holds up (and it should, with Baghdad chipping in $120 million) and Mucky extends his hudna (definite wildcard), then there is not much reason to hang around. The Iraqis are fairly good at hunting down AQ. They don't overburden their penal system when they catch them either.

The other wild card is the Iranians and their Iraqi allies. No bets on how that one comes out.

[vnjagvet]

What is wrong with the following plan:

In April 2008, we begin deploying the combat troops from Iraq to Kuwait or Afghanistan.

Simultaneously, we make it known (diplomatically, of course)that if either Iraq, Syria, or any other power renewed support to forces opposing Iraq's government, we would take whatever offensive action we deemed appropriate against such power.

[Rick Ballard]

Vnjagvet,

From what I've read we're very close to a two party defense pact with Iraq. If we achieve that then it obviates the "necessity" of UN or even NATO involvement in the event that any country interferes in Iraq to the extent that military assistance is requested. I've also read that end state troop levels will consist of five brigades with additional support troops - 40-50 thousand total.

That's probably what the situation will be when the next President takes office.

[Ralph L]

I'd like to know if they'll redeploy to Tehran or Damascus, but I suppose we won't know til they're there.

[Sara]

I half expected to hear the President say at the end of his speech -- "oh, BTW, while I've been speaking we've created some shock 'n' awe in Iran with a few of these new babies."

[vnjagvet]

Rick:

That plan has the added benefit of putting the likes of Harry, Nancy and whomever the D's nominate in a real bind for the next general election, doesn't it?

Heh.

[vnjagvet]

Poker, anyone?

[Ralph L]

No, I'm gay.

[Cecil Turner]

Gates tossed out a number of 100,000 today. Just to keep the loons heads spinning, I suppose.

It's not a new concept, though I think he got it slightly wrong. According to the Petraeus slide (cited here, last one of these), the force levels now at ~169K (20 combat brigades) will decrease in stages from ~130K (15 brigades) to ~105K (12), ~90K (10), ~65K (7), and then to about 50K (5) in strategic/operational level overwatch [# of brigades given, troop estimate levels mine]. In order to hit the 10-brigade level by Dec '08, the next two drawdown stages would have to be completed in six months (Jul-Dec '08), which would seem to be an accleration of the process (thought not the drawdown rate), and it looks to me like he's conflating the two stages when he refers to the decision point for the first, and actually means the 12 Combat Brigade point (which approximates 100K and is easily achievable by Dec '08).

In any event, Gen Petraeus laid out what most Americans say they want: an event-driven drawdown schedule that transitions from combat operations to overwatch. Critics might logically complain about the lack of a timeline or the pace of redeployment, but those haven't been made specifically. As far as I can tell, all the Congressional whining is about strategy, and inventive ways of impeding the Pentagon's troop rotation schedule. All of which appears more geared toward making sure we lose than an effort to speed up the process. It's hard to tell, though, since critics don't seem to be making much of an effort to be coherent, and the level of debate remains abysmal.

[bubarooni]

Here is some math I'd like to see done by the numerically proficient:

HSU > ABRAMOFF
or
HSU < ABRAMOFF

[RichatUF]

bubarooni-

Once the rubix cube of lies and finance are untangled:

HSU > ABRAMOFF

[hit and run]

Rich, sorry but I have to pull for the Vols today. Fred is going to be there.

Later Gators.

[Neo]

CREW wates the time of the FBI

Federal officials turned the case over to Florida after concluding that Foley did not engage in any actual sexual contact until the former pages had turned 18, and had therefore not violated federal law. Washington, D.C. law defines the age of consent as 16.

[lurker]

Rick,

A "two party defense pact" is something between Iraq and USA agreed on for USA to be in a "ready mode" to help Iraq to defend its own country?

vnjagvet,

Deploying our troops to Afghanistan fits the arguments of the Democrats.

Boy, that sure does put the Democrats in a bind. But they will come out with a new set of arguments.

[Rick Ballard]

Lurker,

A defense pact obviates the need for UN "approval" of US intervention. No "global test" required. It would put Iraq in the same status column as Israel - if they call, we come. No "coalition" necessary.

We maintain a "ready" force in Iraq until the Iraqis are satisfied with their ability to defend themselves. Could be a while - say forty years or so.

[kim]

Hey bubarooni, why do the crashing waves of the Hsunami keep getting larger.

Neo, there ought to have been a law violated in the manner in which CREW hungfire on their evidence. Maybe there is, but tough to prosecute. I'm convinced the Democratic betrayal of homosexuals by conflating them with child predators swung the election, and I'm surprised there isn't more objection and rejection of the tactic. Instead, we get Twin Cities duplicity. It is evil, and bad karma.
===================================

[kim]

Freedom in the Academy proclaimeth Dean of Irvine, but not for the speech of those who defend us.
===========

[Barry Dauphin]

Hey, can Pinch tell us what the price of one share of NY Times stock will be in March 2008? One thing for sure, whatever number he gives, it's sure to be wrong.

[lurker]

Lurker,

A defense pact obviates the need for UN "approval" of US intervention. No "global test" required. It would put Iraq in the same status column as Israel - if they call, we come. No "coalition" necessary.

We maintain a "ready" force in Iraq until the Iraqis are satisfied with their ability to defend themselves. Could be a while - say forty years or so.

I see. Thanks! If the defense pact is signed before Bush leaves the office, can a future US President negate this pact?

Well, we're still in Germany after 60 years....Does Germany still need us? Especially after they decided that stricter sanctions against Iran are not needed? I see that Iran is trying to get their "financial" feet into the Europeans' doors.

Anyone know of any liveblogging of the "Gathering of Eagles" event in WDC today?

[lurker]

I did find one link over at Victory Caucus by N. Z. Bear. The first photo and third photos are awesome.

N.Z. Bear's blogging of GOE event

[lurker]

Plus at Michelle Malkin's

Liveblogging GOE: Hour one

I was hoping there would be on at the GOE site.

[RichatUF]

hit&run-

Rich, sorry but I have to pull for the Vols today. Fred is going to be there.

We'll see...Orange/Blue...and its at the Swamp Florida 38 UT 24

[DEMO_]

Hey did registration go by the wayside at JOM? It was more of nuisance to anonymous posting then anything.

[Sara]

According to Michelle, the chickensh!ts are throwing eggs at the Eagles.

[lurker]

That's pretty sick.

First they spat at our Vietnam War Vets, calling them "baby killers". Now they throw eggs against them?

[Sara]

Another update from Michelle (language alert):

Update 5:00pm Eastern. Well, they came, they spewed, they cursed. Several thousand Soros marchers descended on the Capitol yelling “Fuck Bush” and “Fuck you” at Gold Star Families. As Capitol Hill police arrested the “die-in” participants, young peaceniks shouted “What does a pig look like? The Capitol police” and “Oink! Oink! Oink.” Others shrieked about “Fascism!” and gleefully performed “Sieg Heil” salutes. We’ll have video from the midst of the moonbats. Across from Taft Park, some anti-American demonstrators waving a large, upside-down American flag and pulling a coffin with Army boots got in a scuffle with Eagles. We’ll have that video of that as well.

Sick bastards. Who yells f**k you at Gold Star families? How low is that?

[narciso]

This comment is very much like the anonymous White House staffer, who told Ron Susskind "we're an empire now, we make our own reality". Ron has gone a long way from belittling Clarence Thomas to be A-list consultant to ABC News,(paging Alex Debat; who's made up stories about Al Queda sympathetic Pakistani generals, Baluchi terrorists collaborating with US against Iran, etc)& Keith Olbermann's show, despite having missed crucial details of the failed mubtakkar 'chemical weapons' plot against NY subways in 2003, to making up supposed comments by the President himself, "you've covered your !($9, now" re; the August 6, 2001 PDB, attributed by Mr. Dee Dee Myers(Todd Purdum) in the new Vanity Fair piece,
"Hiding in the Bunker".

Interesting that PDB, was a virtual outline
of the December 1998 PDB which mentioned the
Sheik Rahman connection; but not the putative operational planners; KSM and Col. Seif Al Adel (Ret. Egyptian army, reported
'detained' in Iran; although involved in 2003 Dhahran bombings)it did not include valuable information of Ziad Jarrah (Hamburg
cell member, flagged by CIA in UAE in 2000)
or Marwan Shehhi, another UAE national in the same cell; flagged by BND in 1999 for his call from Yemen. The whereabouts of Al Hamzi & Al Midhar (whose names were known to several dozen agency personnel)thanks a
bunch Mrs. Gorelick. The names of Zaccarias
Moussaoui were not available for another
two weeks; as was 20th hijacker Mohammed Manea Al Quahtani who would be turned back
at the Orlando airport by immigration agent Gonzalez Menendez; at a day he was to be received by Mohammed Atta. But for G.M. efforts and that of the passengers of United
93, Capitol Hill, might very well become a
funera pyre as the Pentagon and the WTC became. Al Quahtani might be a fluke except for the fact, that he comes from an old line Nejd tribe who provided the Wahhabi palace guard, the Ilkwan, one of the figures behind the 1979siege of the grand mosques (post script; ; and martyrs in Fallujah and Baghdad siege of the grand mosques (post script; after the revelations of the 'torture' of detainee # 603, (proximimity to women, alternating cold and warm cell).Ironically, his treatment,
prompted Sen. Durbin to compare US military personnel to Stalin, Hitler & Pol Pot minions proferred another candidate for martyrdom; Fawaz, who conveniently died in a confrontation with Saudi police in 2004, and never even visited the states. In fact, data about any of the hijackers is so scarce
that McClatchy Gitmo beat reporter Carol Rosenburg, could only add, that Waleed al Shehri, the third 9/11 martyr featured in
was a Marlins fan; thanks, Carol. My own
paper's contribution to understanding Islam
this week, was a paper thin puff piece about
two South Florida, one in Kendall, the latter in Pembroke Pines, one was a imam in Leicestershire, England back in 2005! (an important area of inquiry, re; 7/7, 7/21, the British Air TATP plot, London & Glasgow AP 's plot this year) Another serves at the mosque which condemned the victims of the
2004 tsunami, and cultivated Jose Padilla
aka; Abdullah Muhajir, Hussein Wayyousi, &
Top 10 most wanted fugitive & Waziristan's
reputed resident Adnan El Shukri-jumah) Every organization has bad apples they explained. No further questions.

[PeterUK]

The Democrat view

[centralcal]

I know, it's a beautiful weekend, but where is everybody? I am curious about Clarice's thoughts on Mukasey for A.G.

And, did anyone here read the threatening letter that the lovely Jane Hamsher penned to Elizabeth Edwards (re: chiding Moveon.org for the Petraeus ad)? Sorry, but I haven't had sufficient caffeine this morning, so I can't remeber where I saw it, but it was a doozy!

[Cecil Turner]

And, did anyone here read the threatening letter . . .

Very nice attempt at message control. Here's the gist:

So here’s the rule. You never repeat right wing talking points to attack your own, ever. You never enter that echo chamber as a participant. Ever. You never give them a hammer to beat the left with. Just. Don’t. Do. It.

Pretty consistent, for folks convinced that the enemy is the right, not Islamists, and that the truth is less important than winning. Or maybe it's all just an honest misunderstanding?

[centralcal]

More Jane Hamsher to Elizabeth Edwards:

"There are any number of ways you can answer that question well and none of them involve attacking MoveOn. They’re out there on the left so you can look “moderate.” They’re saying what needs to be said, opening the conversation up so John Edwards isn’t considered the left-wing fringe loon that nobody should listen to."

I guess she is saying that "they" (Moveon.org) ARE "left-wing fringe loon(s) that nobody should listen to." But, hey, not the Breck girl! He's pretending to be moderate.

These people are hysterical!

[Sue]

Personally, I hope Hamsher keeps chastising candidates and promoting MoveOn. When she gets involved, candidates don't fair too well.

[PeterUK]

"So here’s the rule. You never repeat right wing talking points to attack Stalin or Mao, ever. You never enter that echo chamber as a participant. Ever. You never give them a hammer to beat the left with. Just. Don’t. Do. It."

Yes,very consistent.

[Ralph L]

From their point of view, the MSM is part of the right wing attack machine, at least whenever it isn't actually attacking right wingers (then it's covering for them and pulling punches).

[Barry Dauphin]

Look up sophomoric in dictionary. See. picture. of. Hamsher.

[Clarice]

I think those Louboutin boots and the swoons of her prole followers have gone to Jane's head.
" know, it's a beautiful weekend, but where is everybody? I am curious about Clarice's thoughts on Mukasey for A.G." I know Schumer likes him.(Strike One) Someone I trust sat thru the Blind Sheikh trial and reports that guy was innocent and the prosecution a joke (Strike Two).

[glasater]

Bill Kristol sure likes Mukasey and said so on Fox News Sunday plus an article in WS.

He could be the person to straighten out DOJ--a small dream ofcourse.

[centralcal]

Thanks, again Clarice for your honest opinions, which I value.

I am troubled about Chucky Shumer's high opinion of Mukasey, but it has been only that at this point. Your comments underscore the queasiness I am having, sad to say.

I really was so hoping for Ted Olson, or, at the very least, it that proved problematic, that Clement would simply stay in place by default.

[Clarice]

Nan Aron supported Mukasey, two--another strike against hi IMO.(Andy McCarthy says he's great--said the same thing about Fitz if you recall.)

[centralcal]

Clarice: Yes, I recall vividly, Andy's praise of Fitz. Since that time, I have read all of Andy's opinions/posts at NRO through the Fitz filter - which is to say, with varying degrees of skepticism.

Some are saying today, that Bush has called Shumer's bluff with Mukasey and that Shumer is looking to backtrack a bit on his endorsement. Whatever the case, thankfully, the current AG position is one that will be short lived.

[bio mom]

Schumer favors New Yorkers.

[Jane]

Capt ed has a good piece on Schumer's back-tracking. I heard some social conservatives complaining about Mukasey, which helps him in my book because I'm not socially conservative. And I like the fact that he's associated with Rudy.

[centralcal]

Jane: I agree and Rudy came out with a strong endorsement of him (posted today at NRO). Still, he is an unknown and maybe, since we will now definitely get to know him better as AG, it will tell us something about Giuliani's potential future judicial choices?

[boris]

How long before Mukasey (acting on Schumer influence) appoints another fitzlaw independent investigation of Rove and Cheney? With Andy's support and blessing no doubt.

I favor leaving the guy presently there or Olson.

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