Matching Headline To Story

On the topic of whether illegal immigrants should be issued driver's licenses, the position of the Earnest Lib is, "Of course".  That was John Edwards position in 2004, but the whole topic has become controversial since Hillary tried to slice it both ways in last week's debate; now John Edwards is opposed, Rasmussen says 77% of Americans think it is a bad idea, and Dems are trying to reposition themselves.

So how did the global headquarters of Earnest Liberalism, the NY Times, cover last night's election in New York, where Gov. Spitzer's controversial proposal to give licenes to illegals had given Democrats fits and Republican hope?  Check this headline carefully phrased to reassure the Upper West Side libs:

New York Democrats Say License Issue Had Little Effect
By Nick Confessore

Democrats declared yesterday that Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s plan to give driver’s licenses to illegal immigrants had not proved to be the electoral boon Republicans had hoped for in local elections, despite the Republicans’ aggressive efforts to exploit overwhelming public opposition to the proposal.

It's all good!  Sanity prevailed, and the notion of issuing licenses to illegals is not toxic!  But wait... West Siders who make it to the third paragraph get a splash of reality:

In most of those areas where Mr. Spitzer’s licensing proposal moved to the forefront of the campaign, Democrats were able to cauterize the issue by publicly breaking with the governor, harshly criticizing the plan and in some cases threatening to join lawsuits challenging it.

And Mr. Spitzer, whose poll numbers have slipped as a result of the issue, played a muted role on the stump, a sharp contrast to his highly visible efforts during the 2006 campaign and during a State Senate special election last winter.

So Spitzer's plan had little effect, other than forcing Dems to run against, and muzzle, their own Governor.  Got it.  Here is the Times final paragraph:

Democratic officials acknowledged that the licensing proposal had not helped their candidates, but said yesterday that it had proved pivotal in only a small number of races. Privately, many said they expected the issue to be off the table by next year, though neither Mr. Spitzer nor his Republican opponents in Albany show any sign of letting the matter drop.

Let's get ready for '08.

Comments

[Other Tom]

The complaint for many years was that the Times was biased. Now it's gone way beyond bias--it's nakedly partisan, which is something quite different.

[Clarice]

It simply cannot be true that immigration is a divisive and bad issue for the Dems. Except for Kaus, all the pundits said it was a winner for them and a loser for the Reps, tarring the opponents of the president's proposal as nativists.racists and worse.
Can't be true. Just can't/

You mean even Dem voters cling to outdated notions of national sovereignty and border security?

[Rick Ballard]

I don't believe that "biased" was ever more than a lipstick color for the propaganda pig that the Times has been for more than 65 years. It's Sauron's voice as surely as CBS was Sauron's eye under William Paley.

On an encouraging note - NYT hit a new 52 week intraday low this morning. If T Rowe Price wasn't propping the stock (at a cost of hundreds of millions to those foolish enough to trust T Rowe with money) the stock would be at ten.

As to immigration - the enforcement of existing laws backed by denial of Federal funds to local governments choosing to offer "sanctuary" to illegals ought to be at least tried for a bit.

Has anyone else noticed that the Dem propagandists masquerading as journalists have choked down the negative stories on illegals? Stirring nativist sentiment doesn't appear to have worked the way Marx promised it would. What a surprise.

[Jane]

Anyone see any election results? Any trends that you note?

[RichatUF]

Jane-

The voucher measure failed in Utah and democrats won in Ky and VA. the Don't Panic side and the Panic side

[Other Tom]

I note that Hillary's Tradesports price for the Dem nomination has risen from 71 cents to 74 cents since the debate. (Go figure.) And I promise not to post Tradesports stuff more than once a week until after the conventions.

[Jane]

Thanks Rich.

That's a bit disappointing.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

Saw this via Drudge, was curious if export growth and cap. utilization may have contributed to this?

Also great article at AT yesterday!

OT-

Yea, I'm pretty sure everyone if planning on how best to weather "Clinton III-Hillary! on Earth: What started in Arkansas will end in Washington DC"

I'm not optimistic...

[kim]

She seems wistful, the old gray lady. Surely, for spin so nuanced, the writer had to know what Tom points out as so blatant. Yet knowing, and still spinning, seems wistful to me. I'm beginning to feel sorry for Pinch.
============================

[Sue]

Not to knock AJ too much, but he has been so pissed off over the lack of the amnesty bill passing that he will blame every loss on that issue whether it is or not. Virginia has been trending blue for a number of years. And I don't have to point out that the last major election out of Virginia, pre-amnesty, brought Jim Webb to Washington.

[Sue]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,309137,00.html>Kentucky

"People were ready for a change," Beshear said of Tuesday's election result. "They were, I think, fed up with what's gone on the last four years."

Fletcher won four years earlier on a campaign promise to clean up Frankfort but was indicted on misdemeanor charges that he rewarded politically connected Republicans with jobs at the expense of Democrats.

A conservative democrat beat a corrupt republican. Immigration was not a factor. Corruption was. And truth be told, corruption has been the downfall of republicans, not immigration.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

Dunno about the productivity bit. I'd appreciate your input concerning the assumptions in this BLS projection. If they are correct about Boomers hanging on, then we should see continued and strengthening productivity due to increased "experience". If they're wrong (I lean towards wrong) then we're going to have quite a labor crunch within three years.

I believe that they are wrong because of their reliance upon the behavior of 62-70 year old workers in the '90s. Those folks weren't Boomers and I don't think that Boomers will stick it out with $17 trillion under the mattress. Those folks who hung on in the '90s didn't have anywhere near that kind of cushion.

The immigration issue looks a little different when there's a labor shortfall in sheer numbers (labor force participation rates are very close to an all time high as it is). Not many people ever think about what the "baby gap" that opened up some twenty years ago actually means to the economy.

[Ann]

OT

One of my favorite columns to read is Jay Nordlinger on Impromptus on NRO. (After Clarice, of course!)

His recent column reviews John Bolton's book, Surrender Is Not an Option, and it sounds great.

Has anyone read it?

[anduril]

Another bit of good news, politically speaking, is that the Democrats have been vying to outdo one another in promising to throw money at the supposed Global Warming Crisis--in amounts that would utterly trash the economy while it introduced a Big Brother state. Rush highlighted a WaPo article yesterday that suggests that some Libs are starting to realize that could be another BIG loser of an issue for them. But the sound bites are already in the can.

[Ann]

Good Grief!

Has anyone seen this:

Jimmy Carter

[kim]

So, do animals go to heaven?
============================

[Syl]

Heaven wouldn't be heaven to me if my cats weren't there too.

re Dems and Global Warming. Urk. MSNBC all week has been green. Almost every story has a global warming connection---except the ones where they moan about high heating bills this winter. Heh.

the set on Morning Joe is green this week and I loved it when Mary matalin was on the phone asking them all if this was a campaign rally for Kermit. :)

I think it hurts the Reps a bit if they deny there is global warming. There is. It's just that selling your SUV won't make a damn bit of difference. And neither will reducing carbon emissions.

Sen Craig (yes, Craig) pointed out that the recent fires in So. California plus a big fire they had in Utah this year were the equivalent of the annual carbon emissions of 21 million cars. Woof.

As Lomborg says, GW is real, it's a problem, but not a catastrophe, and we have to become aware of the benefits as well as any downside.

Oh, another thing to look for in future fear mongering. I heard on the Weather Channel that the Fujita scale has been tinkered with a bit because of better technology/damage assessment methods. Instead of simply looking at damage to frame houses, now a wide range of damage is studied to determine the strength of a tornado including trees, mobile homes, and other types of buildings. And now many things that used to be considered a 4 on the Fujita scale will be a 5.

You with me on this? The first thing that came to mind when I heard this is my anticipation of the reported increase in tornado strength due to the increase in number of F5 tornados.

some things are so very very predictable.

[Patton]

This issue just proves to me Republicans are stupid and will continue to lose unless they take on these idiots directly.

Why has the questions not been asked:

Do you liberals support pilot licenses for illegals? Hey, they may want to fly to work, or have a job flying, what's the harm? there going to fly anyway. Don't you want to know who that illegal alien is when he hits your airplane on the taxiway?

Do you liberals want illegals to have explosives licenses? They may bneed to work with explosives int heir jobs, you never know, they could be working in a quarry,. etc.

Do you support firearm licenses for illegals, hey, they have to live in poor, crime heavy neighborhoods, why can't the protect themselves?

[PeterUK]

"Yet knowing, and still spinning, seems wistful to me. I'm beginning to feel sorry for Pinch."

Feeling the Pinch eh?

[Patton]

And the lefts biggest claim is soo ridiculious yet the Republicans don't respond.

Liberals say; don't you want to know who the person is who hits you in an accident?

Well, I don't need them to have an American license for that, they can get an International License. Or the police can detain them until they find our their identity.

In addition, I'm not worried about their ID in a fender bender, I'm more worried about when they drive the truck bomb into the grade school. At least we'll have their identity with the charred remains.
Idiots.

[PeterUK]

"Democrats have been vying to outdo one another in promising to throw money at the supposed Global Warming Crisis--in amounts that would utterly trash the economy while it introduced a Big Brother state."

That is the whole idea behind the Global Warming operation,control.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

I'll get back to you, I had to speed read the paper. Initial impression-that I think you are in the right direction. One of the assumptions is that immigration peaks from Mexico et al in 2010-which I don't think includes outflow from the US [in the 1990's Ireland, Italy, and Isreal saw a spike in immigration from the US] and it could be significant. The other is that you are probably right that the Baby Boomer cohort will retire younger and live longer than the previous generation.

The other issue I was looking at was with productivity (and the paper doesn't really address it). I would think that if the Baby Boomer generation leaves the workforce more rapidly than previous generations than productivity would increase as their portfolios would be shifted to the younger cohort without a significant increase in pay. However, if they linger on in the workforce at the same rate as the previous generation than I would think that productivity would decrease in the out years as they a paid more and have decreased portfolios.

I'll run some numbers tomorrow morning.

Sly

I think it hurts the Reps a bit if they deny there is global warming. There is. It's just that selling your SUV won't make a damn bit of difference. And neither will reducing carbon emissions.

Don't forget Rick's great investment opportunity.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

One other thing, I was surprised with the teenage workforce participation as its presented in the paper.

During economic expansions, the labor force participation of young workers—especially teenagers—is expected to increase; however, during the expansion of the 1990s, the participation of youths did not expand, but instead started a downward trend that has continued to the present. Thus, the continuing drop in youth labor force participation rates may be mainly a structural phenomenon.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Ruben Navarette says Hillary missed an opportunity, because Spitzer's plan makes sense:

I still didn't think that whatever license that illegal immigrants carry in their wallets should look similar to the traditional driver's license carried by the rest of us -- especially given the additional security concerns that arose after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. Those concerns, however, help make the case for driver's licenses for illegal immigrants despite the insistence of those who argue the opposite is true.

Along comes Spitzer, with a common-sense solution .... The governor has devised a clever compromise in the form of a three-tiered system: [1] a special, secured "enhanced driver's license" only available to U.S. citizens; [2] a license that conforms to the requirements of the federal Real ID Act, which sets nationwide standards for licensing, and would be available to both U.S. citizens and legal residents; or [3] one that would be used by illegal immigrants for driving and identification purposes within New York state, but not valid as an ID for boarding airplanes or crossing international borders [nor for voter ID]. ....

...Spitzer, he has made the correct choice -- even if it isn't the popular one. He has decided that New York's interest in determining who is in the state, and for what purpose, is vital enough that it can't be held hostage by the federal impasse over immigration reform or the all-or-nothing politics that kills the appetite for compromise. He has angered the extremes on both the right and the left, those who think he went too far or didn't go far enough. And he has provided a sensible alternative to what his more-conservative opponents seem to believe -- that if you ignore illegal immigrants, they'll go away.

Most refreshing of all, when Spitzer took heat for his position -- whether it was from political opponents in Albany or petty demagogues on cable television -- he stood his ground.

You see, Hillary. What the governor of New York has in mind makes sense. And the next time you're asked about it, just say so.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

Aside from employers in Europe deperately avoiding hiring young people due to a number of factors, there is also the conundrum that a very fair proportion of youth there simply don't have to work - generations of investment are dumping into an ever decreasing "base". Take a close look at that ICI report - I come up with about $500K average for some 30 million housholds. Using a 5% return and a 5% per annum capital invasion you arrive at about $45K per annum for 40 years. Toss in SS and compare to average current over 65 household income of around $26K. Not too shabby - why work past 62?

There is a ton of vulture spending going on - a big reason for the jump in the level of credit being used. Gotta take a food taster when you eat at the kids house...

[PeterUK]

Rick,
The kids here don't work because they are all socialists,the great experiment has worked,besides with both parents in work the kids can still be in education in their thirties.

[Crunchy Frog]

Uh, no. When you have a ready supply of illegal aliens willing to work for dirt wages, who's going to instead hire teenagers of questionable productivity?

[Rick Ballard]

Peter,

The Italian employers that I know wouldn't hire women under 35 because of a law that provided 18 months paid maternity leave. A lot of young people in Italy are actively encouraged to live at home and enjoy themselves until they hit about 30 - lots of them take 7-8 years to get a 3 year degree. I thought it was a very select strata for a while but it wasn't - it dipped down to lower middle management parents and kids.

I'm sure there are a lot of young socialists to boot.

[PeterUK]

Rick.
"Mr Brown said that this year paid maternity leave would be raised from six months to nine months, and would eventually rise to 12 months."

We are going the same way.It is also illegal to ask if a woman is pregnant when interviewing her for a job,and in any case could not refuse to hire on those grounds.
True story,a woman employed by a small business,a shop IIRC,where lifting was part of the job,declined to lift anything after being hired because she was pregnant.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

Another and possibly most important aspect to the "youth problem". There's quite a resistance to the concept of "starting at the bottom" when you've convinced yourself that you deserve better.

I guess one just becomes used to mom's basement.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

There is a ton of vulture spending going on - a big reason for the jump in the level of credit being used. Gotta take a food taster when you eat at the kids house...

I'll be sure to warn my folks, its my turn to make Thanksgiving dinner this year.

There's quite a resistance to the concept of "starting at the bottom" when you've convinced yourself that you deserve better.

Very true. One of the best rackets going is "facilitator"-don't know if you have ever had the...pleasure...of one of there readings.

[JorgXMcKie]

Well, I'm 60 and I don't really intend to retire ever. Of course, I took what amounted to 10-12 years of retirement (in 'genteel' poverty) when I was 40 or so to return to school. OTOH, I have many Boomer friends, and quite a lot of them don't really intend to retire anytime soon. If you like what you're doing I'm not really sure what enticements retirement has. More leisure time? Got plenty now. Time with family and friends? Doing fine, thanks.

I do think though that we're facing an odd kind of labor shortage pretty soon now. As people on average get 'wealthier' (in the sense that your income is sufficient to buy the essential easily) there is more demand for all kinds of 'service', from maids to investment bankers. Not all that many service jobs are really well done by (totally) unskilled labor. We're going to need more 'trained' unskilled laborers.

[Rick Ballard]

JorgXMcKie,

It may be that I spend too much time with data tables. When I sort the OES tables, ranking by number of people in a given job, I find a great many jobs where leaving will quite possibly not be a "sweet sorrow".

I would never deny the fact that many people derive much more than just economic benefits from working but the type of shifts in participation that the BLS is projecting are really very optimistic.

People of retirement age in the bottom quintile of 26 million workers - where there is and will continue to be a need for 'trained' unskilled laborers will keep working from necessity. Nevertheless, just to hold that quintile steady implies an intake of some 650,000 new people per year, without any growth. The "baby bust" just isn't going to provide them. Not with so many entry positions becoming available in the two quintiles above.

[RichatUF]

JorgXMcKie-

Not all that many service jobs are really well done by (totally) unskilled labor. We're going to need more 'trained' unskilled laborers.

Some countries are starting to capitalize this phenomena. I think I had a comment in a thread here about "dark matter and the US trade deficit". It was an interesting paper and one of the things I wanted to back out was the overseas labor component of the "Dark Matter" [the others being national security and the dollar] because South Korea, the Philippines, Mexico, and Nicaragua are scored really high on the charts-some of it was explained by debt forgivness, but I think overseas employment probably explained it better.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

I don't know if you are familiar with the "Skeptical Optimist", but he has been tracking employment numbers for a couple of months running. Here is his October write up.

[Qwinn]

From that Ruban Naverette pice above:

"And he has provided a sensible alternative to what his more-conservative opponents seem to believe -- that if you ignore illegal immigrants, they'll go away."

Uh. Yeah. That's -exactly- what conservatives are saying. Ignore illegals! Pay them no mind!

*boggle* How does someone that dishonest and/or dumb get any attention at all?

Qwinn

[RichatUF]

Rick-

When I was looking around for some numbers on immigration and labor force part rates-found this

graf-

About 7.2 million unauthorized migrants were employed in March 2005, accounting for about 4.9% of the civilian labor force. They made up a large share of all workers in a few more detailed occupational categories, including 24% of all workers employed in farming occupations, 17% in cleaning, 14% in construction and 12% in food preparation.

[bgates]

I don't know that "starting at the bottom" would be so objectionable, except that the "and working your way up" part seems to have fallen by the wayside.

I would think that if the Baby Boomer generation leaves the workforce more rapidly than previous generations than productivity would increase as their portfolios would be shifted to the younger cohort without a significant increase in pay. However, if they linger on in the workforce at the same rate as the previous generation than I would think that productivity would decrease in the out years as they a[re] paid more and have decreased portfolios.

I'm trying to read that to mean something besides, "If Boomers retire we can stiff younger people on salary, but if we stay in the jobs ourselves we'll need to get paid more though we'll be doing less." I'm not sure how the Boomers get to dictate younger people don't get a significant increase in pay, especially since there aren't that many younger people; maybe the quote means no significant increase in takehome pay after the backbreaking SS tax increases I assume the Boomers will pass.

[Rick Ballard]

bgates,

I think that's a little upside down. Boomers hanging on are a dam on the "natural" decennial increase in income. If you go here and look at page 13 (pdf count - pg 5 per document) you can trace median income by decennial split from entry to exit. If an over 62 "hangs on", then a 45-55 is blocked from advancement and the "natural" increase in income that would occur between 45 and 55 will be slowed.

If you look at the table you'll note that the biggest percentage jump by far lies in the entry age group of 15-24 year olds. That's the effect of the "baby bust" phenomenon in black and white. It's the 45-55 year olds (mostly Boomers themselves) who will have their income increases slowed - not the insufferable little twerps with expectations higher than their abilities to produce.

[cathyf]

Something that few people appreciate is that Social Security payments are not indexed to inflation, but to wages. Because of the basic not-at-all-subtle supply-and-demand effects, the baby-busters should see higher real wages for the same productivity than baby-boomers. (Not like my husband's classic baby-boomer story of trying to get a job at the Wendy's during high school, and there was an interview, and he didn't get the job!)

Indexing social security payments to inflation rather than wages will allow rising wages to fund social security for a larger population, and is probably something which could be sold politically. (The bottom line is that if social security payments would remain constant in real terms, while working peoples' wages would rise in real terms, then social security can remain solvant.)

Of course there is the whole law of supply and demand when it comes to the value of the baby boomers' capital (i.e. retirement savings.) In a world awash in baby-boomer savings, with a shortage of baby-buster labor, the returns on investment are going to be bid down as the buster wages get bid up. The boomers are going to have to work longer because as that money comes out of the mattress it's not going to perform nearly as well as their parents' money did for them.

[kim]

A gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar at the top.
==============

[Rick Ballard]

Cathy,

I can't see how an increase in costs would cause a reduction in ROI. I can sure see some increase in inflation coming, with prices having to be adjusted to account for increased labor costs but I can't make that into a reduction in margin with concurrent reduction in ROI.

Entry level jobs aren't particularly susceptible to productivity enhancement so I don't see how wage driven inflation is avoidable. I don't see it as necessarily worrisome either, the bottom quintile only accounts for about 9.8% to total labor costs in the first place. Discomfort will come when (and if) the fourth and fifth quintiles are affected more strongly. Those quintiles are susceptible to productivity enhancement, so at least it will be a horse race.

It looks like the decade of 2010-2020 is going to be great for those under 35 today in terms of income growth. May they swim in unmerited good fortune.

[kim]

C'mon, Rick, 'unmerited'? Next you'll be trying to tell me they are unentitled.
====================================

[Rick Ballard]

Well, they're wholly entitled to 100% of that which they merit and I don't begrudge them their coming windfall. They will achieve genius through a rising market and claim to be perspicacious for having been sitting in the boat when the tide came in.

Just like everyone else.

[kim]

And people worry about the next generation.
============================

[Rick Ballard]

Only about those so miseducated that they will turn fortune from their door for lack of proper dress.

[kim]

It is not good to remain miseducated, naked, and progressive all your life.

Shika Dalmia has a nice article in the Detroit paper about Bush.
=================

[Clarice]

Hillary stiffed another waitress --grabbing a free meal, appropriating her story about having to work 2 jobs to support her famile without permission, and then leaving without tipping her. She's done this before.

Then there's this tale from the Wa PO:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/07/AR2007110702898.html>Parent's exploit kid, fool Lego

And Steve Gilbert reports the national something or another group to end homelessness is reporting their are more homeless vets than there are homeless people.

And so it goes this morning.

[Clarice]

***their are more homeless **(homonyms are hard)

[Clarice]

THERE THERE THERE THERE THERE--NOT their--

[kim]

Still setting off bombs, I see. The casualties now include his children.
=====================

[MayBee]

They're there, clarice. Or they're not there.

[kim]

Ah, via Arthur Herman reviewing Martin Gilbert, an excellent phrase for the 'progressives'. They are 'cultural patricides'.

Or is it 'There! Cultural Patricides!'?

or: 'Their cultural patricide suffoces'?
===============================

[Clarice]

Yup, Kim--
Steve Gilbert reports that the vets story might be in error--Apparently the VA is using higher figures than HUD..Hmmmmmmmm

[Rick Ballard]

The NYT just broke the $18 technical "floor". It may close higher than $18 but the next "real" resistance point is $17.50.

C'mon Paunch - you kin do it! Drive that puppy right into the ground.

It's a shame that it's happening on a bad day for the overall market - let's just look at it as a silver lining.

[Clarice]

Hil's campaign says they left a check for $157 to cover the tab and $100 in cash. Nothing was left at her table. The manager who was not their that day, says it's so and that the tip money may have been improperly disbursed..Who knows what the truth is?

[bgates]

May they swim in unmerited good fortune.
Hard to have better fortune or less merit than Boomers, but we'll do what we can.

Entry level jobs aren't particularly susceptible to productivity enhancement so I don't see how wage driven inflation is avoidable.
And that gets us back to the original thread topic, ¿si?

[kim]

Touche, C. I meant the Gilbert who wrote 'Churchill and the Jews', reviewed in the WaJo, today.
==============

[Rick Ballard]

"And that gets us back to the original thread topic, ¿si?"

Not exactly - neither illegal immigration (or a sharp increase of legal immigration by more 'trained' unskilled laborers) will resolve anything but the fifth quintile problem.

Amnesty - or issuing formal ID - is a waste of effort. Stronger enforcement of existing laws plus a raise in "productive" legal immigration would be much better - and much more well received by an electorate that sin't pleased with giving scofflaws anything but directions to the exit.