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December 28, 2007

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glasater

Here is a link to the Deborah Burlingame >

glasater

Whoops! Well it is a good article I picked up from a Narcisco reference.

MayBee

Ha! If Bhutto's son becomes her successor, I will absolutely believe she martyred herself.

If I were a true conspiracy fan, I would say she'd recently been diagnosed with cancer. She martyred herself for her son. That' why the family doesn't want an autopsy, and that's why she stood up in the middle of an unruly crowd.

So there.

Sara

Did Bhutto Martyr Herself?

clarice

Yhat was vnjagvet's hypothesis, and I find it sensible. Lewis has put it into an exceedingly persuasive form.

A kind of Pakistani Antigone.

Rick Ballard

Rich,

This is close to how tough immigration enforcement was going to be played in the media (per the Dem/Pew gameplan). The lacking element in this article (which I have seen in others) is the nativist/racist prong. I suspect that as public sentiment developed the Dem/Pews were horrified to discover that Americans of Hispanic descent were just as cheerful about "send 'em all home" as your average NASCAR fan.

Thus the shift to the terrifying economic cost of allowing unemployed American citizens to actually find jobs. (The current AZ unemployment rate is only 4.1% so there may well be a short term shortage - until the unemployed Michiganders figure out where the jobs are).

Best laid plans and all that.

PeterUK

It is certainly possible that Benazir Bhutto suffered from the guilt that many survivors of tragedies have.
Traumatic event can induce Survivor Syndrome which results in mental health problems,including self harm

RichatUF

Rick-

Wow burning the midnight oil-2:45 am. I looked at the gross numbers from your state list:
Electoral College

Bush 97 Dukakis 0
Bush 46 Clinton 55
Dole 21 Clinton 80
Bush 96 Gore 5
Bush 106 Kerry 0

The Clinton elections were a bit of outliers because in 1992 within those states 20.3% voted for a third party [mostly Perot] and in 1996 10.1% did. I would say that insurgent 3rd Party runs hurt the incumbent party [Perot hurt Bush in 92 and then Clinton in 96]. If there is no 3rd Party insurgency then I would put all 3rd party support at [.3%, 3.1%] and a mid range of about 28.9 million total ballots cast in those states.

Rick Ballard

Rich,

Good analysis. A 3.1% reduction would only have cost IA and NM in '04. It would have taken a 5% reduction to have moved OH and NV over to the Dem column.

-SPLIT-

Rick Ballard

I believe the immigration issue to have been a complete misread. According to the Hegelian master/slave construct, all NEA miseducated morons were supposed empathize deeply with the "other" and support open borders and a big group hug. Take a look at these ARG results for SC, (also FL and NV), paying close attention to McCain's standing before and after his embrace of "amnesty".

No hugs for McCain. Not then and not now.

-SPLIT-

RichatUF

Rick-

I'm about split as to whether the election will be a landslide or fought out in the courts. I think your right on immigration and that could turn a +/- 1% victory into a +/- 10% victory. Immigration is a tough issue because it includes issues of trade, national security, law-and-order, agriculture, and families.

I think a very simple promise that a real border fence (not 'virtural'-now you see, now you don't) will be built within the first year of the new presidency and a realistic plan of how it will be built would probably be worth 10% to 12%. Stop the flow first, then tackle the other issues. One thing I wish a candidate would say is that illegal immigration and amnesty fixes are the same DC group think from the last 20 odd years [maybe some clips showing Clinton signing his amnesties with a smiling Hillary! in the background] and that fresh thinking with an enforcement approach is necessary.

I haven't quite finished with my numbers-I'm still collecting data to break them out by ethnicity, by state, to see what sort of ethnic campaign might be in the offering by Clinton III. If the increase is overwhelmingly Hispanic voters and that increase breaks 3-2 for Clinton, does that make up the possible collapase of black support that could be critical in MO [shifting that state from competitive to a landslide for the R's]. One aspect of this is that Hillary! is not very good with religious themes and that a more social-democrat informed Catholicism from the Hispanic increase would be a tough feat for Clinton's staff to pull off.

kim

Lewis's article highlights Bhutto's problem; it made her 'uncomfortable' that terrorists can dictate agendas.
==============================

Rick Ballard

Rich,

I don't think the "Hispanic" vote exists on a level much different from the "Italian" vote. I can follow the simplistic reasoning that the Pew/Dems are using and acknowledge its utility when applied to the black bloc but it's not an all purpose tool. I'm more curious about what happens to the black bloc when Hussein finally succumbs to Clinton's venom. It could make a difference in PA and OH as well as in MO.

clarice

Me, too, Rick. When he succumbs and is not named her vp candidate.

RichatUF

Rick-


I don't think the "Hispanic" vote exists on a level much different from the "Italian" vote.

I'm in agreement here-all politics is local, and more so with the "Hispanic" vote. One thing that has surprised me is the generally low level of turnout nationally for Hispanic orgin citizen population [47%] and how a large population of non-citzens drives turnout down. I suppose the project for dems is to make the "Hispanic vote" a monolithic block where they are all keys in a clog, in a top-down organization, and addicted to government benefits. I can see why the DC groupthink looked at the issue as a third rail and wanted to push through another round of amnesty.

This is turning into a bigger project than I thought and I'm only going to look at the gross numbers that I can find and maybe look over on Google-Scholar see if someone has done the work before.


MayBee

I don't think the "Hispanic" vote exists on a level much different from the "Italian" vote.

Agree.
If I weren't so lazy, I'd search for the articles from about 6.5 years ago that discussed how Hispanics simply aren't a voting bloc like the black community seems to be. From that time on, someone sure as heck has tried to change that dynamic.
I don't think that Hispanics see themselves as so similar to each other, though. There are recent immigrants and well-established families, people from Columbia and people from Spain and people from Mexico. All with very different self-identities. Someone might be able to carve out a liberal group of Hispanic voters and call them the Hispanic bloc, but it won't be accurate.

centralcal

Well, I guess the reviews are in and the Huckster was just wonderful on MTP! Swell.

About the "Hispanic" vote, I agree with Rick and don't think they vote in any kind of bloc, or lockstep. The more "assimilated" they are, the more diverse their political views are vis-a-vis where they live, what they do for a living, their education/income levels, etc.

I will however venture the opinion that I think more of them are "conservative" in their family/religious/cultural perspectives and beliefs.

Rick Ballard

Rich,

I find these tables easy to use.

GMax

Actually after the black vote the next most reliable ethnic segment to vote in very high %s for the Dhimmicrats is the Jewish vote. Much more reliable than hispanics, who have been trending towards Republicans for some years now. Someone who can explain to me why Jews tend to vote this way, given the level of anti-Israel and anti-semetic sentiment in many nooks and corners of the Dhimmis, I would very much appreciate the enlightenment.

But it is true that in South Texas, the Dhimmi still control the local governments. I put that as a legacy item that will change in time, but hey Mississippi and Lousiana are still dominanted by the Dhimmis at the statehouse level too. And that is more about being a majority and the power that comes with majority control, than any real sympathy with the Progressive movement.

clarice

I don't understand it either, gmax. Maybe adherence to the party has taken the place of religious belief, because orthodox Jews tend to be more conservative and less observant Jews, more liberal politically.

RichatUF

Rick-

Thanks. I'll drop in the rest this evening. Right now I'm running some numbers to come up with a "rule of thumb" on an amnesty heavy D immigration plank. I am testing to see if it were to increase Hispanic vote for D's, decrease it slightly for white voters (where they vote for R's instead) and keeps black voters at home [something like for every .x% increase in Hispanic vote the dems can expect -.y% of the white vote to go R's and a -.z% of black vote to not vote at all].

Should be done this evening.

boris

given the level of anti-Israel and anti-semetic sentiment in many nooks and corners of the Dhimmis

I think of it this way ... why are blacks so dimorat ?

As a smart alec teen in pre civil rights 60s I went with my dad, a US gov research scientist setting up a facility in the deep South. Invited to a local plantation for dinner dad said "don't discuss civil rights".

Well the hosts did bring up the subject with me and of course I spoke my mind. What they told me was "what you don't understand in the North is that we take care of our black folks down here". As I recall my response was something like "you can still take care of them even if they have civil rights."

IMO that's what happened.

The dimorat party eventually switched from the party of white privilige to the party of minority entitlement. They grant civil rights and take care also. More guilt to compensate for as well. Past sins forgotten or blocked or transferred to conservative Republicans (who actually promoted civil rights during Ike's terms and broke the fillibuster in LBJ's).

Anyway the larger picture is this ...

Think of the Republicans as individual sports ... swim track tennis wrestling ...

Think of the dimorats as team sports ... baseball football soccer ...

If a person's preference is for the team experience then a dimorat team is the place to be. A little team to team friction is easier to endure than individual hostilities. The dimorat support for team identities more than makes up for any attitude differences between groups. In fact such attitudes are expected and to the extent they support group solidarity, encouraged.

vnjagvet

The Lewis article is well done.

I had the impression (not reinforced by any study or other empirical evidence but observation) that Bhutto's motivation, as is not uncommon with many Asian leaders, was the adulation and devotion of a significant portion of the population, the subsequent immortality of martyrdom, and the expiation of the Bhutto legacy of corruption. I suspect it was not wholly emotional and subconscious, but calculated and intentional.

Lewis fleshes out with facts and history what for me was only a gut reaction.

clarice

He is an amazing person.Lewis is his penname.. he's a well known physical scientist under his own. He writes on such a variety of things and does a great job with them all.

Jane

OT: I'm getting really peeved at Fox. This morning someone echoed that USA today story that nipped a soundbite from Fred and declared he didn't want to be president. (See the Krumm piece under my name). On Chris Wallace show Fred Clarified, but I've heard the news anchors reiterate the soundbite twice.

How MSM of them.

clarice

Especially on weekends, FNC news is just a rip and read thing,Jane. The wire service reports probably haven't (and may never) correct the story.

clarice

It now appears Benazir's son will just be the symbolic head of the PPP--He's staying at Oxford. His father,the international crook Zardari, will be the actual head.

vnjagvet

Glen linked Fred's full rebuttal of the AP hatchet job, complete with the full quote of the answer he gave in Iowa.

Sara

Fred's full rebuttal of the AP hatchet job

What is with the AP anyway? Powerline is also highlighting their less than honest reporting going on with Romney too.

Who's Lacking Candor, Romney or the AP?

And did you see that Andrea Mitchell says that the Bhutto killing is why we need to elect Hillary.

Andrea Mitchell: Bhutto's Death Proves We Need Shrillary

Jane

So the qualification for lefty foreign policy is tea with a dead person?

Why am I not surprised?

Sara

Yesterday we had a new bin Laden tape which was a call to arms for Iraqi Sunnis to come back to al-Qaeda and not join forces with the Americans.

Today Iraqis respond:

Voices of Iraq reported:

Salah al-Din, Dec 30, (VOI)-The Sunni Salah al-Din Awakening council on Sunday called al-Qaeda leader Osma Bin Laden to order his followers to stop targeting and killing Iraqis instead of warning against joining the tribal organizations.

“Osama Bin Laden should order al-Qaeda members to stop targeting and killing Iraqi and apologize to the Iraqis for all the horrific crimes committed by the organization members,” Salah al-Din awakening council said in a statement issued on Sunday and received by the independent news agency Voices of Iraq (VOI).

The announcement came in a reply to audiotape released Saturday purported to be by Osama bin Laden, in which the leader of al-Qaeda warned Iraqi Sunni Muslims against joining awakening council.

The statement pointed out “the crimes committed against Iraqis by those calling him Sheikh Osama was the main motive to establish the awakening councils and was not seeking for money, power or treason for others’ interests.”

The government-backed- Awakening councils were established in Anbar province along with Diala, Ninewa and Salah al-Din provinces in attempt to fight armed groups and al-Qaeda organization. The council is led by a tribal chief or a dignitary.

Branding actions committed by Al-Qaeda operatives as “deplorable” and breaching Islam, The announcement pointed out the actions “got non-Muslims to look Islam as a religion seeking bloodshed and not promoting right, justice and dialogue”.

PeterUK

"So the qualification for lefty foreign policy is tea with a dead person?"

Well,Hillary could channel Bhutto to get some advice on how it is done.

Ann

Hot Air has a good piece on Hilda. I love one of the comments:

She could be a villian in the Batman series
The Cackler

Beto Ochoa on December 30, 2007 at 4:40 PM

Hillary cackles about being a mistrusted political figure

centralcal

Yeah, I saw that Ann.

I still think that the best anti-Hillary spot was that big-brother-esque YouTube video that ran some time back. It was so dead on about her and what her candidacy means.

I sincerely hope she gets the democrat nomination! A few of our guys could beat her easily. John McCain, NOT. For every anti-Hillary that votes for him, there would be a corresponding anti-John that would vote for her. And, we thought Florida 2000 was a nightmare?

PeterUK

Zogby - Hillary slight poll lead

clarice

He doesn't add his special sauce, PUK, until the votes are cast..then he rushes out a final poll.

Ann

Centraical,

I agree, John McCain would keep alot of voters at home.

I read somewhere today that Hillary is telling Iowans how much she needs their vote. Hah, if she loses Iowa she will be telling everyone Iowa is not that important, making all those Iowans who voted for her feel just great.

I don't think we can take eleven months of her cackle much less her inevitableness, Bill, or her lies. Her negatives are higher than any presidential candidate every running plus she is a senator. That is two strikes against her already without the cackle.

I actually think she would be easiest to beat. But I don't think I could turn on the news for the eleven months we have to do so.

PeterUK

Do the good people of Iowa know that voting for Hillary will blight the crops for the coming year?

Ann

PUK,

I like it: Hillary The Blighter!

Ann

It appears that The Blighter is Desperate:

Two Powerful Democrats Plan to Chauffeur Clinton Supporters to Iowa Caucuses

Do you think they will driving hearses?

Topsecretk9

Compare and contrast

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said yesterday he had instructed his staff to suspend diplomatic contacts with Syria until Damascus showed its willingness to let Lebanon elect a new president.

Speaking to reporters in Cairo after talks with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, Sarkozy said he would not have any more contact with Damascus until his government had "received proof of Syria's intention to let Lebanon designate a president of consensus."

Diplomatic sources close to the Paris-Damascus relationship said France has no intention of ending its diplomatic relationship with Syria. Sarkozy's declaration is clearly aimed at turning up international pressure on Syria.

to

Just last month, as Damascus continued making mischief in Lebanon, the Bush administration did it the honor of inviting it to the Annapolis conference. And just this weekend as Sarkozy was reading Assad the riot act, a major US lawmaker, Republican Sen. Arlen Specter, landed in Damascus from Jerusalem to pass along what he said was a message of peace from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Specter was in Pakistan when Bhutto was assassinated. Why is Specter there?

Ann

This will make Fred08 fans feel good:

Thompson Makes His Move [Peter Robinson] NRO

centralcal

Thank you Ann, for that link! Go FRED! I have been suffering through the flu that turned into a cold and decided to lay on the couch and watch TV before going to bed with cold medicne.

So, what did I watch? The History Channel. Ohmygawd! What is going on there? Comparisons of the Emporer Palatine (a Star Wars presentation) to George W. Bush, etc. etc. Nothing like a lot of lefty propaganda to remind one of the stakes we are facing in this election, eh? I won't be watching the History Channel again anytime soon.

Ann

Centraical,

Hope you feel better! I have something else to amuse you with and hopefully make you laugh. Bill Clinton has to fly back to Iowa on New Year's Eve for photos with his adoring wife at midnight. Can you imagine how pissed he is? How many invitations did he have to decline? Can't wait for the fawning press accounts and pictures.

Happy New Year

centralcal

Okay Ann, I watched the 17 minute Fred video. Damn...I so want this man to get the nomination!

Bill deserves Hillary. Hillary deserves Bill. Whenever and wherever it may be. But, couldn't they just spare the rest of us?

Happy New Year to you, too Ann. Nighty night.

narciso

Yeah that was a pretty lousy program and Newt Gingrich's contribution didn't help things. It's just an indication of how
critical examination seems to undermine popular entertainment. I read of an early
review where the medals ceremony at the end of a "New Hope" was compared to the
Nurenberg rallies.(seriously) Lucas pretty much deep sixed the franchise in his second round when he let his allegories be so pointed with "Nute Gunray, Lott Dodd, the Shadow Menace(that was a conspiracy of the septuaginarian future emperor." His first
films reflected the wordview of his teen years in Modesto, not the ersatz leftist he imbibed at USC film school;which surfaced in his award winning short, THX-1138 (does it seem like everyone there is crazy,Gary Condit, Scott Petersen, the staff at Knight Ridder's Sacramento Bee)One thought the films about the first trilogy were pondorous. The comparison of Achilles
with Anakin/Vader was really over the top.
Probably only Frank Miller could do a thematically fateful adaptation of the Illiad; not the mishmash that was Troy.
I mean they left out the Gods, in David
Beniof's sapec script.Sadly, the limited success of the series probably doomed any adaptation of Asimov's Foundation series; that Lucas cribbed for his CGI Coruscant
landscape.

narciso

By the way, the idea of aleader 'martyring' him or herself is not unique to Pakistan in te 20th century. Besides the successor to the prophet Ali (founder of the Shias in
the late 7th century). It seems no one less
than Julius Caesar had the same idea. A History Channel special about him some years ago; went into the details of the
assasination; and the provisions in the
will for the people of Rome; that enabled
Caesar to trascend the fate of the Gracchi
brothers (the Kennedy's of that era) and enable his adopted relative, Octavian to found the first Imperial dynasty.

BarbaraS

I wonder if Hillary still has fireside chats with Eleanor Roosevelt? Or has she dumped Eleanor like the Clintons do everyone eventually.

PeterUK

"Two Powerful Democrats Plan to Chauffeur Clinton Supporters to Iowa Caucuses"

Oddly, the chauffeurs are both named Kennedy.It is to be hoped that they are safe drivers and there will be no mishaps,still you will have to jump that bridge when you come to it.

clarice

Puk *Here's your New Year's THWACK*

SunnyDay

Are any of you aware of an investigation at the state department?

I just read that there is an inquiry by the SFRC and also a DOJ investigation of misappropriation or mishandling of US aid. Aid intended to Palestinian refugees was going instead as aid to Palestinian suicide bombers' families.

clarice

No, I haven't SD. Do you have a link?

SunnyDay

It's subscription material, but I can email it to you. At least they give me an "email this" link hahaha.

clarice

Thanks. C

SunnyDay

I'm looking for their policy about posting this info, but from what I've seen, it's ok to quote a a paragraph or two for discussion.

clarice

SD,That refers to the UN relief organizations handing out the money to suicide bombers, etc. It's not really news though it's hidden well by the MSM --think of that when the cutes kids come collecting for UNICEF. The school on which I served as a Bd member for 15 years if the No 1 collector of UNICEF Halloween contributions in the country, and I have been unable to persuade two heads of school to either reconsider this drive or let parents know the truth.

SunnyDay
Last week, the Justice Department announced an FBI investigation of the State Department's special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction. The investigation of Stuart Bowen was said to involve electronic tampering in connection with fraud and abuse.

What about this part?

SunnyDay

from wikipedia

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction As Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, Bowen is tasked with providing oversight for funds spent in the Iraq reconstruction effort. His office, initially criticized for being too close to the Bush Administration to provide proper oversight for the reconstruction effort, has been highly critical of the management of the funds used in Iraq. His investigations have led to criminal probes for fraud related to the Development Fund for Iraq.[3] In addition to cases of fraud, Bowen has found cases where projects in Iraq were abandoned, erroneously slated as completed or not sustained. [4]

As a result of his efforts, the SIGIR position, which was initially intended to last for only 10 months after 80 percent of the reconstruction funds had been contracted out [5], was extended several times due to support in the United States Congress.

In 2007, Bowen came under congressional investigation himself after several reports of misconduct were filed by former aides. The investigation which is being led by ranking Republicans in the House of Representatives has resulted in accusations that the investigation is politically motivated in order to silence a critic of the handling of the Iraq War. Investigators state, however, that the reports are serious enough to warrant an investigation into Bowen's conduct.[6] As of May 2007, the investigation was ongoing. I added this just to see how long it takes to be removed.


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