Anybody But Hillary

I have long believed that Hilary could only win if the "Anybody But Hillary" Democrats (who I suspect are a majority of her party) failed to unite around a single alternative.  However, it now appears that both Dennis Kucinich and Bill Richardson are asking their supporters to flock to the Obama banner as a second choice in the arcane Iowa Democratic caucusing procedure.

If that support materializes, Obama will perform above his latest polls, which are already good.

Well - whether Obama wins by a little or a lot Hilary will be the Terminator candidate.  She can't be bargained with. She can't be reasoned with. She doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And she absolutely will not stop, ever.

But that doesn't mean she can't be defeated.  It'll just take a while, thereby compounding our angst and her ultimate humiliation.

OK, let's have some Iowa predictions below.  I say Obama, Edwards, Hillary, but no screaming.  On the Rep side, Romney thumps Huckabee, McCain finishes third.

Comments

[PeterUK]

Ann,
You might say that,but I couldn't possibly comment.
Since when has eligibility impeded the electoral process?

[RichatUF]

Rick-

I might have been mistaken, the Republican process isn't quite as arcane and corrupt as the Democrat process.

However, I'd be ready to pull out the faintng couch if McCain got into double digits [and a bit worried] in Iowa. I just flipped on the tele-CSPAN2-for the Republican caucus. The weather doesn't look too bad, but the room there for the Carrol County Republican Party looks a might bit empty.

Also my * from above:

Republicans [if McCain more than doubles his 2000 effort, and I faint]

Romney 36%
Huckabee 19%
Thompson 17%
McCain 12%

[Syl]

GMax

I'd love to move to Texas. it's Florida I'm talking about, but I'm not moving there either.

And, psssst, folks, review my predictions. I'm not even predicting that Huck will win Iowa, though I'd like him to. ONLY Iowa.

I like the guy, so shoot me.

Sheesh.

[Sara]

Well CSPAN2 seems to be a Ron Paul lovefest with predictions that he is going to win.

[Jane]

It's not that you like the guy Syl, it's that you make such a point of castigating everyone who doesn't. It reminds me of another incident a while back...

[boris]

Hell, we're willing to let ten guilty men go free so that one innocent isn't punished, why should we turn that on its head for the vote?

Wrong logic.

Every invalid vote cancels a valid one.

In this case ten guilty go free = ten innocent punished.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

He had to put money down already in SC, didn't he?

35k and 2500 signatures-if memory serves, the parties have to pay for the primaries and independents can vote in either primary.

I believe that a considerable amount of Thompson's dough is already in SC bank accounts.

I was following the people that Huckabee lined up in SC-Mike Campbell is his state chair. I am sort of surprised that Huckabee has spent so much time and energy in Iowa, when he will do better in SC. He is setting the expecations bar way to high and Thomson's style and McCain's biography will be tough to overcome in SC when all the air gets sucked out of Huckabee's campaign with an Iowa loss.

Did you catch Clinton's plan to provide babysitters in order for parents to attend caucuses? Who in their right mind turns their kids over to unvetted teens? She's counting heavily on the village idiot vote, isn't she?

It takes a village after all. I was disappointed, Hillary didn't turn Dave into a toad.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

The Dem rules are something else. I wonder if Red Witch supporters draw a pentagram on the floor in their corner?

[Other Tom]

Let me get this straight, Syl. You have a computer (or access to one), and you can sit at it and swap messages with strangers about politics--but you don't have the resources to get a photo ID? Try Googling your state's DMV and make an appointment to get a driver's license. Or get a copy of your birth certificate and any other form of photo ID. Or go to the post office and get a passport.

The Vile Harridan is now at 19.4 vs. Obama's 77.0 for the Iowa win at Tradesports. And she's dropped to 58 for the nomination (down ten in about 72 hours).

[Ann]

Just to add to the serious discussion (for a second :)), Roger Simon at Politico reports this:

"If you are an American serviceman or servicewoman from Iowa fighting in Iraq or Afghanistan, you can’t vote in the Iowa caucus. If you are a disabled person and can’t leave your house, you can’t vote in the caucus. And if you work at night, you can’t vote in the caucus.

There are no absentee ballots allowed. You must show up to vote. And that just has never seemed fair to me."

Roger Simon: Inside Iowa

He also reports on Hillarity's secret weapon:

"Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who is backing Hillary Clinton, just told me Clinton’s secret weapon in Iowa: the Asian and Pacific Islander community here."

Clarice, It all seems like a sham to me, too.

[Rick Ballard]

"Clinton’s secret weapon in Iowa: the Asian and Pacific Islander community here."

If all 1.5 per cent of them show up it really won't be enough. Even with nice fresh Hsu shines.

Roger Simon is pathetic.

[Jane]

Well I'm turned into C-Span and in every phone call on the right, Ron Paul is the only candidate who understands the economy, foreign policy, the war, the constitution and he can deliver babies. I see no reason to go any further on this since he is so far above every other candidate.

[Sara]

Jane, that's what I meant by a Ron Paul lovefest. I couldn't take any more, so I switched to an old rerun of "Law and Order." Escapism.

[PeterUK]

"Did you catch Clinton's plan to provide babysitters in order for parents to attend caucuses? "

Who gets to pick the babysitters,Bill?

[Sara]

Now that's interesting. They have a much larger turnout than anticipated. Spokeswoman used the word "overwhelmed" with the number of people who have shown up.

[Topsecretk9]

Sara

Whose Spokesperson?

[Sara]

Orange County Republicans TKS9

[Jane]

Oooooh Glenn has linked Tom "and his readers". So we are all famous tonite.

[Sara]

CSPAN2 is showing lines way down a hallway and the hall already full.

[M. Simon]

Thompson 45
Hillary 37
Obama 71

===

Some one has to be wrong and innumerate besides.

===

Jerri Thompson gets the best looking wife in a low cut dress vote. I'm sure of that.

What? This is not a beauty contest?

Nevermind.

[M. Simon]

Peter UK,

Bill is not picking the babysitters. He is just picking them up.

His criteria? Go for the chicks with the kneepads. Looks optional.

[Topsecretk9]

Sara
Thanks
---

OT -- Scary Larry jumps on the get Sudan's Oil bandwagon

Philippe M. Heilberg Chairman and CEO

January 3, 2008
JARCH APPOINTS LARRY C. JOHNSON AS VICE PRESIDENT

I am pleased to announce that Mr. Larry C. Johnson will serve as Vice President of Jarch. Mr. Johnson is in charge of intelligence and security for the Company. He has extensive experience in both the private and public sectors and in both the domestic and international arenas. Mr. Johnson has worked with US military commands in scripting exercises for the Pentagon. In addition, he has previously worked for both the Central Intelligence Agency and the US State Department. Mr. Johnson is an internationally recognized expert on security, as well as crisis and risk management.

http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article25435

Harper's did a posting on how suspicious this Jarch Deal is.

[Sara]

They are already 20 minutes late starting and the line just keeps coming.

[Sara]

I goofed, it is Carroll County Repubs, not Orange County.

[Steve]

Great site!

Would you like a Link Exchange with The Internet Radio Network? At the IRN you can listen to over 50 of America’s top Talk Shows via Free Streaming Audio! In addition you can email the President, VP and Congressional Leaders!!
http://netradionetwork.com

[M. Simon]

Election prediction:

Huckster loses the Jewish vote.

[M. Simon]

Steve,

Can you listen to them all at once or do you have to choose?

[PeterUK]

"Scary Larry jumps on the get Sudan's Oil bandwagon".

Is he going to visit?

[M. Simon]

Prediction:

The Red Witch sews up the Chinese vote thanks to the generous help from the Red slippers. Or maybe it is help from a shoe. I forget.

Any way she promises to return the money and keep the votes.

[Dave]

I won't predict anything about the specific outcome, except to say I think Thompson will do better than anyone expects him to in the long run. I will say this, however: after a lot of thought, a lot of watching these guys and reading about them and what they believe, I consider myself an opponent of both John McCain and Mike Huckabee, and honestly don't know if I could bring myself to vote for them because they are so opposed on a deep philosophical level to what I believe the Republican Party ought to be running.

Neither one of these men is a conservative, by any stretch of the imagination. Being pro-life does not make you a conservative. Likewise, being a Christian does not make you a conservative, no matter what denomination you come from. Nor does being a pro-life Christian make you worthy of leadership, and honestly, that's all Huckabee has going for him. His statements about policy have been asinine, his understanding of both the domestic and foreign situation clearly disconnected from reality.

McCain, likewise, is not a man who deserves the title of conservative. He's a supporter of big government, he continues to work to limit free political speech, and he opposes truly defending the borders. These are not the positions of a conservative.

Rush is 100% right on about the situation, and thanks to whoever linked his clip on RealClearPolitics above, I hadn't heard that today. Republicans will not win by compromising their principles. They certainly will not win by doing what makes the drive-by media love them--the media is and has always been invested in their defeat! The Republicans must do what has truly brought them victory in the past: they must have a firm message backed in a combination of conservative values and an optimistic view of our nation and its possibilities. I heard a taste of that from Romney in his religion speech, and I've heard it from Fred. But if the Republicans waver and try to nominate someone to please the ivory tower crowd living over on the upper west side, they will not succeed in galvanizing the American people to support them, and they will lose.

I know this isn't the quick barb on the moment typical of most blog commenters, but this is what I think.

[Porchlight]

All this Huckabee talk is making me want to watch Elmer Gantry. Hmm, I think I have a beat up VHS copy around somewhere...might be a good way to spend the evening waiting for the votes to come in.

[Jane]

Wow - early raw vote has Obama wailing on Hillary, whose only success is with old ladies - firmly confirming I am not an old lady.

And on the right side, Huckster is winning big, and Thompson has a very strong third.

[Sara]

Well said Dave. Oh, and this blog has very few who can speak in quick barberisms. We tend to be much longer winded, no matter what the topic.

[Rick Ballard]

Dave,

There's no penalty here for well thought comments of any length.

M. Simon,

I think you have Huckabee's lack of support among Jewish voters pretty well pegged. I figure it as no better than a 12/92 split.

[glasater]

Well if you want to watch sausage being made you will turn to CSPAN1.

[M. Simon]

Just in from Druge:

Huckabee 33; Romney 24 McCain 11 Paul 0; Thompson 17 Giuliani 0

Go Fred.

[Garth]

Republicans will not win by promising more of Bush. Bush is dead. The readers of this site are dead enders. Longing for Thompson or Giuliani, they think the poor of America should continue to shed blood for a foot print in Iraq that will deliver the oil.

War mongers.

It is time to dismantle the Bush war machine.

The tribe has spoken.

Just look at the support of Paul and Huckabee.

I admit I only visit this site for laughs. The cheerleading for more of the same is amusing in light of the fact it is so disfavored by a majority of Americans.

As an independent, my choices are Edwards, Obama, Huckabee, Paul.

Unfortunately, I agree that the MSM wants to blow McCain nice and hard.

He is the only R candidate who has a chance.

[Ann]

Rick,

I agree on your opinion of Roger Simon and only read Politico on nights like tonight. It frosts me whenever legal citizens of this great country and especially our millitary cannot vote. Still think Iowa is a deception.

I do think it is interesting to see what Clinton's buddy Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack has to say and would love to ask him if they draw a pentagram on the floor in their corner? :)

[RichatUF]

Damn-

I don't think I'll make a career out of predicting the Iowa caucuses. Huckabee 35%, Romney 23%, Thompson 14%.

Link is to Cedar Rapids ABC affiliate

[glasater]

Cheer up Garth. We only have ten months to go.

[RichatUF]

And I need to get out my fainting couch.

[Sara]

I don't know where those results are coming from, what I'm watching on CSPAN, they are just filling out their first ballots.

[Dave]

Yes, Garth, no one knows what it takes for Republican candidates to win better than an anti-war leftist.

[glasater]

Obama three delegates--Edwards two--and the vile harridan one.
Via CSPAN1

[Topsecretk9]

Thompson needs to call the MSM out on the carpet more. People like to get utubes emailed at work more than watch pathetic coverage by bone headed democrats like Chris Matthews.

MSM love polls. They just can't quite grasp the ones that say people can't stand the leftist MSM.

[M. Simon]

Bold prediction - no one named Bush will win the Presidency in 2008.

'Nuther one. Dems return to their Copperhead roots. McClellan by a landslide.

[M. Simon]

Drudge says we have a winner:

WINNER: Huckabee 33!; Romney 24 McCain 11 Paul 0; Thompson 17 Giuliani 0

[Sara]

I think the Republican Party of Iowa website has crashed.

[Jane]

Yes, Garth, no one knows what it takes for Republican candidates to win better than an anti-war leftist.

Tee Hee

[M. Simon]

Drudge update:

Huckabee 35; Romney 24; Thompson 14; McCain 12

[vnjagvet]

Just catching up.

I hope the prevailing dem leadership listens and follows Garth's advice. Kind of like Ned Lamont and his minions did.

We should tell Garth we agree with him and wish him the best:>)

I like the sound of the Drudge report. I hope it hold up.

A third for Fred and Hillarity would be sweet.

[vnjagvet]

holds up.

[obsessed]

Huckabee by double digits. The Republicans are on a collision course with their Faustian destiny.

[Patrick Tyson]

Huckabee 31% Romney 23% Thompson 13% McCain 12% Giuliani 11% Paul 10% with 40% of precincts reporting. Big uptick for Giuliani in last update.

[Garth]

my picks are pretty good.

i picked

huckabee
romney
mccain

so thompson and mccain are in fight for third.

big deal.

edwards beats them both.

hound dog fred is readying his resignation speech.

hopefully he can get his job back on Law and Order.

Dumb dope.

Polls show both Edwards or Obama beating all of the R candidates.

For the record here, I predicted

1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Hillary

[Sue]

I am so glad this isn't election night. However, if Huckabee is the R nominee, I will sit this one out. As much as I berated fellow R's for saying the same thing about Guiliani. This has nothing to do with Huckabee's religion. It has everything to do with his policies, or more to the point, lack thereof. And the fraud that he is will be magnified by the MSM that has given him a pass to date.

[MayBee]

Ding Dong the Witch is Dead.
Which ol' Witch?
The Wicked (red) witch!

[M. Simon]

Garth,

Polls show Lamont way ahead in the polls.

With McClellan a close second.

A. Lincoln looks to go down in defeat ending the war with a negotiated settlement an a return of all runaway slaves to their owners. Republicans and slaves crushed by the prospect.

[Rick Ballard]

Right now Giuliani is the big winner if his 11% holds. Romney is well singed and Thompson and McCain made no ground. Interesting.

If Obama improves by 1% to get a 5% edge then he would have a fantastic rather than a very good evening.

[glasater]

So much for Ed Rollins and his strategy.

[Topsecretk9]

Maybee

I don't know

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.11%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.57%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 30.34%

just refreshed

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.27%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.48%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 30.25%

[Topsecretk9]

new refresh

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.30%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.50%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 30.21%

[Rick Ballard]

Hussein just hit fantastic.

I sure hope that Bill is holding the Red Witch's hand as she melts.

[sbw]

Huckabee
Romney
McCain/Thompson

Obama
Edwards
Clinton

But it doesn't matter what Thompson gets. He's so not expected to win that he doesn't have to get more than in the teens to get into New Hampshire still standing. Huck can't go anywhere in New Hampshire, and even if Romney takes new Hampshire on organization alone, Fred's not dead.

Clinton, if she were to get through Iowa, can't carry the election. I don't think Edwards could either.

But, hell, I'm talking through my hat. I never understand why my own county elects the sheriffs it does.

[Jane]

I loved that Ed Rollins interview. He's gonna sink his candidate single-handedly.

I wanna know who the blogger is.

[Patrick Tyson]

Very good night for the pollsters at the Des Moines Register.

Something wrong (no surprise) on the Republican side. Guiliani loses lots of votes and slides to 4% in results I'm following with 65% now reporting. Huckabee 34% Romney 25% Thompson 14% McCain 13% Paul 10%

[Topsecretk9]

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.56%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.33%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 30.06%

and with 65% GOP reporting Fred's third

Mike Huckabee 25,510 34%
Mitt Romney 18,668 25%
Fred Thompson 10,308 14%
John McCain 9,891 13%
Ron Paul 7,674 10%
Rudy Giuliani 2,708 4%
Duncan Hunter 324 0%
Tom Tancredo 2 0%

[clarice]

The "top candidates"--Clinton and Romney-- started way too early, spent too much time raising money and wasting it.

[PeterUK]

Obama beats Hillary

[Jane]

The blog notes are under my name.

And I wish Juan williams would just go away.

[centralcal]

I'm with you Jane on Rollins. Angry man talking! I am hoping the blogger was Hamnation!

[Topsecretk9]

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.70%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.19%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 30.03%

[Patrick Tyson]

Obama also opens up 37% to 30% and 30% with Edwards in second by a small margin with 82% reporting.

[M. Simon]

Word is that Iowa emptied its churches for a Huckster.

Proving that God doesn't make the average Iowa voter any smarter than the average Iowa turnip.

[centralcal]

I was wrong Jane, it was Amanda at Townhall.

[Topsecretk9]

Interesting...Richardson had a micro spike that took from Hill

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.78%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.16%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.92%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.08%

[RichatUF]

Rick-

Wouldn't you like to be the fly on the wall in the hotel room as Bill screams about the "change faction" and "experience faction" and "human faction". If I were Mark Penn, I'd make a run to Safeway and stock up on some garlic.

[Sara]

Romney lost the moment Preacher Huckster reminded the bigots that their salvation was in jeopardy if they voted for a Mormon.

[Topsecretk9]

ENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.94%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.09%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.79%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.13%

[clarice]

Penn better hire a bodyguard. So should the staff who talked her into running in Iowa against the advice of the rest of her staff.
Remember, it's never her fault or Bill's fault. Never.

[SunnyDay]

What is it with Mike Allen? He is still going on about Thompson quitting.

[Topsecretk9]

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 36.98%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.05%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.75%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.17%

I ok, I'll lay off

[RichatUF]

Fox has the "Politico" yammering on about Thompson dropping out because of his poor showing and that McCain is surging...

Obamamama...yikes, 2008!

[Rick Ballard]

"What is it with Mike Allen?"

Tertiary syphilis, from all appearances.

[Rick Ballard]

Don't lay off, Tops. Watching the Red Witch melt has a certain attraction...

[RichatUF]

clarice-

Maybe Penn can run a poll and find out if the Red Witch is in fact human.

[Topsecretk9]

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.12%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.02%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.62%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.13%

[clarice]

Pls, ts-- I haven't had this much fun in weeks...

[MayBee]

For me, a Rudy/Mc Cain girl who would also be happy with McCain, seeing Huck beat Romeny is good. Not that I want Huckabee to be President (although I like him, Syl!), but having a guy that can't compete in the long run win is best for me.

I am thrilled, to be honest, about Obama.
I think Juan Williams is going to cry.

[RichatUF]

Imagine an Obama/Richardson democrat ticket.

Even better, imagine an Obama/Richardson Administration.

[vnjagvet]

Allen from Politico is shilling for McCain. According to him, Thompson's 14% is bad DDDDOOOOOOOM, and McCain's 13% is great GRRRREAtttttt.

Somehow, there is dissonance there.

I will be happy if Fred comes out third.

My dreams are being realized by Hitlary! tonight. She is a bad third.

What are the bets as to what the screaming will resemble?

Banshee
Screechowl
Hyena
You pick it

[Topsecretk9]

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.18%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 30.00%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.58%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.15%

[MayBee]

TS- I can't believe that about Larry. He and Joe are big for Hillary. What could that all mean?

[Jane]

Well all this talk about Huckabee being the frontrunner now has got me close to gagging.

I'm happy that Hill bit the dust, but Yuck on Huck.

[narciso]

Odd how Scarry gets promoted to VP just after that diplomat gets hit in the Sudan; huh. I'm not saying he had anything to do with it; but when you partner withgenocidal Islamists like the Bashir's; let's just say the red stuff on your boots isn't always oil.

On the Iowa primary it's just good that Ron Paul!!!savior of the universe, didn't go anywhere, however the IRCG's runner up candidate (who knew they voted) is in the lead.

In other news, that episode of CSI;Classic, with the photojournalist who photoshopped Iraq stories into an expose; than murdered
the editor who found them out, was rerun.
The villain's argument makes the argument
about the 'narrative' over the truth, we've
discussed as crystal clear as came be made.
Of course, the writer's actually thought they were making a profound point.

[MayBee]

Bill Clinton is brushing off his "comeback kid" speech for Hil.

[Topsecretk9]

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.30%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.95%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.54%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.13%

[vnjagvet]

How will Huck play in the big delegate states?

I don't hate him, I just cannot visualize him as Commander in Chief (always my first thought).

[Ann]

Yuck on Huck

Jane, I want a campaign button :)

[Topsecretk9]

snap...I have to pop out to get a presentation board for school project...be back soon

SENATOR BARACK OBAMA : 37.30%
SENATOR JOHN EDWARDS : 29.97%
SENATOR HILLARY CLINTON : 29.53%
GOVERNOR BILL RICHARDSON : 2.12%