Bold Prediction: The Impending Obama Media Backlash

So here is the latest Bold Prediction, inspired by a late night and little caffeine - Obama is about to endure a media backlash.

Why a bursting of his media bubble?  Well, they (alright, "they") have finally admitted what was obvious in this Harvard study last fall and to Bill Clinton at Dartmouth - as some NBC talent put it, "it's hard to stay objective covering this guy".

However, while the press was non-objectively giving Obama a shoulder ride around New Hampshire, Hillary surprised and embarrassed the media and the experts by sneaking to victory.

So, having been caught out as having been both non-objective and wrong, what will the monolithic MSM do next?  We look for the MSM to engage in the customary self-recrimination, reflect on the manner in which they failed to inform the public, and devote themselves henceforth to doing a better job of presenting Obama fairly, i.e., more negatively.

It seems bold to predict that someone will do something conventional in this election cycle, so I Boldly Predict a notably more negative tone in Obama's press coverage.

We can anticipate a few weeks of "Who Is Obama, Really?" coverage to complement the "Hillary, the Comeback Queen who proved her resolution and resourcefulness on the mean streets of Portsmouth...".  Yikes.

MEANWHILE, IN THE DISTANT PAST:  Mickey offers four theories which attempt to explain ancient history yesterday and sends us here for more.

Comments

[Dennis D]

Its clear that many people respond to pollsters that they would support Obama. But in reality they would not vote for a black man.

[syn]

Obama attrack young people, his problem is that there are more old people in America than young.

Clinton will get the nomination, there are too many career Democrats whose lives are financially invested in Clinton, Inc.

Clinton will win the White House, there are too many entitlement boomers who are expecting America to provide for their every desire and need.

Elderly populations are expensive to maintain, expect a high Misery Index for sometime to come.

The American mindset is pre-1993 WTC bombing, maintaining their Happy is all that matters to them.

[bruhaha]

Dennis wrote:
"It's clear that many people respond to pollsters that they would support Obama."

But look at the results -- Obama got what the polls predicted! So your theory doesn't work in this case. It may be that "Edwards" supporters switched, or that certain groups came out in larger numbers than expected (weather?)

We probably won't know right away and ought to beware the easy answers and speculation, esp. ones based on such things as the predictable --and at this point quite unjustified-- cries of racism.

[Bruce]

For the nth time...Obama is half-white, not a "true" black man. More importantly, he has a shady past, involving Islam.

Lastly, he's very, very inexperienced (as well as being very, very liberal).

He's toast.

[Appalled Moderate]

Well, last night sure was interesting. My guess -- a lot of Edwards voters became Hillary voters, and Hillary's people were good at getting out their vote.

The presumption seems to be that, if Edwards pulls out, his votes generally go to Obama. I wonder about that. Edwards is the candidate of those who tend to think working with Republicans is like working with Satan. A lot of those folks are going to respond better to Hillary's rhetoric about the Republican Attack Machine (tm) than they will to Obama's "working with people" rhetoric.

I think Other Tom may get his wish -- a long Democrat primary battle which will, by the end of it, leave a lot of people disgusted.

As for the Republicans -- I continue to have no idea.

[Jane]

Obama is half-white, not a "true" black man.

Oh dear. Now you have to be a "true" black.
I guess like our "first black President".

[Jay]

Obama is a joke.....an empty suit that appeals to dumb, young people about "change".

Change to what? His anti-American, pro-abortion, pro open borders, lack of immigration enforcement, anti English language as our national language. How does that promote "unity" B. Hussein O.?

How about that madrassa you attended in Indonesia, the world's largest muslim nation? The guy is barely, I repeat, barely an American.

[capitano]

Its clear that many people respond to pollsters that they would support Obama. But in reality they would not vote for a black man.

I know it's hard to believe but not everyone is obsessed with race. I would suggest the opposite -- they don't support Obama because he has no meaningful leadership experience, his policies will destroy the economy, and/or his silly statements on foreign policy scare them to death should he ever become commander-in-chief.

But even while exercising some semblance of good sense, they are so conditioned by political correctness that to avoid being labeled racist, they lie to the pollsters.

[anduril]

Obama himself has written about his search for an identity as a black man--he deeply felt the disparity between his skin color and the identity that American society gave him v. his upbringing by a white mother with typical white liberal views. This is understandable in an intelligent and sensitive young man, even moving. I prefer not to vote for anyone who is conflicted about their basic identity--Bill Clinton would be another example in a different context.

"Black" as a cultural term is common among blacks and is, as generalizations go, factual: it may not capture all the nuances of black society in America but it does correspond to a reality that cannot be ignored or denied. It is realization of these realities that accounts for Obama's tepid support until recently among blacks--not just Clinton payoffs to black "leaders."

[Joe Chudzinski]

So, if we don't vote for Obama, we automatically are racists? This is bull_ _ _ _!
I am tired of this racial blackmail!

[clarice]

When I went to law school there were only 2 women in my class. The other one is in charge of Hill's outreach to women. This segment has always figured heavily in Hill's plans and she's been working this side of the street for years. She knows how to appeal to them and get them to the polls.

[Bruce]

He is stridently anti American, internationalist, who routinely prefes foreigners to the American point of view. As said above, he's an empty suit, nothing more.

He symbolizes the "Oprah-fication" of modern politics. He's the Princess Diana funeral nonsense we saw in England.

He has Islamic sympathies. "Nuff said.

[anduril]

IMO, a particularly telling statistic from the exit polling (and I don't have numbers right now) is that Hillary did much better than Obama among lower income groups. This, to me, suggests that she has a better grip on the people that the Dems need to win an election, whereas Obama's noisy support may be skewed toward movement liberals--a fringe element in American elections.

[Jane]

He has Islamic sympathies. "Nuff said.

That should make him fit in nicely with a lot of liberals.

[Sue]

I think people are misunderstanding what is being said about the race issue. I think people who said they were going to vote for Obama or did vote for Obama did it because they didn't want to appear racist, but never had any intention of voting for him, black or white. Just as in 04 they told pollsters they voted for Kerry when the end numbers didn't match. They didn't want to admit they voted for Bush.

And that brings me to another question that struck me last night. Where are all the cries of a stolen election? The exit polls don't match the end results and no one is crying foul? Hypocrites to the end.

[steveaz]

Tom,
"We look for the MSM to engage in the customary self-recrimination, reflect on the manner in which they failed to inform the public[...]"

Just like the MSM's "introspection" over the war in Iraq? The best they've delivered on the topic so far is the ridiculous drivel that the press didn't push hard enough to stop Bush's "rush to war."

If that's what passes for self-recrimination, then they've shown they can't be trusted to look hard at their own reflection in the mirror.

Baghdad Bob dies hard, huh?
-s

[anduril]

My last post on this--promise! Clarence Thomas, Condi Rice and Colin Powell are poster children for black views on "blackness." It's not just a question of party identification, per se, although that's a big part of it. It is this stereotype of "blackness" that Obama has had to fight against, and within which he has sought to find an identity. It's a very human story, but disquieting when it comes to choosing a president.

[GMax]

Sue I said that last night. You should read me! JK

[Sue]

GMax,

::grin::

[GMax]

I dont see what talking about "blackness" has to do with NH and before that Iowa. There really are very very few blacks in NH outside of kids in college. In Iowa he got white liberals to buy his act. In NH, not quite as much.

We can start seeing how blacks respond when there is a significant mass of them as voters. Its huge in SC for the Dem primary, and very large in Michigan ( which unfortunately is an uncontested primary for the Dem ). Stay tune, you will get to see if Obama is black enough.

For me, I remember the old joke about a guy asking Sammy Davis Jr. something and saying " You know, you used to be black."

I would say that in America today, if you want the reality to be that you used to be black, it is available to you. But for the same reason that high performing black students are pinged on as "Acting white", there is a attitude in a lot of the black community which is designed to simmer resentment and separate and divide.

[anduril]

For anyone who's interested, you can read about Obama's half brother here:

http://isteve.blogspot.com/2008/01/
ive-discovered-obamas-estranged-half.html

(sorry, you'll have to reconstruct the url.

There's a lengthy quote from Obama's autobio, with a very interesting ending. He's nothing if not insightful about himself.

[clarice]

I think our problem is we're too rational and voters aren't. I've studied all the theories Kaus proposed and have decided only one really explains last night:Voters are really uninformed,many decide at the last minute, and no one knows exactly what rings their bells.

Instead of paying attention to pundits, we all ought to spend more time at pool halls and diners listening to voters.

[anduril]

Oh, wait, did I break my promise?

[GMax]

This one is for Syl. John Fund on the case before the Supreme Court today on voter ID:

http://opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110011102>Supremes to hear Indiana Voter ID law arguments

[SN]

FDLers are poison politcially. Obama's African church in America is poison politically. The votes went from one to the other?

I don't think Hillary won that way, but she is on the fringe.

Obama is not addressing foreign policy when it is important. His identity is fringe African church in America and he seems to bring out the worst of that continent; he can't explain why this is happening, but he is part of that church that might have allot to do with it. You have to ask some Congressmen, Oprahs, etc. from Chicago, but they also go to church. So, is the problem the church or exclusionary Africanism?

I thought Plame was a perfect example of the FDL fringe. They helped, got a free dinner and some cash but were really not wanted or needed and were poison in the end. I think Hillary has figured that out.

[Semanticleo]

Can anyone provide docs which illustrate, rather than suggest, that Obama is a stealth
Muslim? 'Nothing substantive' is MY Bold Prediction.

[Other Tom]

TM, I think you've nailed the upcoming media approach right down to the ground. One more thing: there'll be lots of the usual navel-gazing and pretended flagellation about NH, ultimately culminating in the usual self-congratulation about what a wonderful institution they are.

I confess I'm really depressed. Although my track record at being wrong is nearly unblemished, I think Hillary now looks to be the nominee and, I'm afraid, the next president. I really don't think the bloody fight between the two Dems will materialize--both Clintons are too smart to let it play out that way. Four or eight more years of listening to Bubba loom darkly on the horizon.

Mencken said something to the effect that in a democracy the people get what they want, good and hard.

[MayBee]

I think people who said they were going to vote for Obama or did vote for Obama did it because they didn't want to appear racist, but never had any intention of voting for him, black or white.

But his poll numbers actually match his votes (more or less). It was Hillary people were embarrassed to admit they were voting for.

As for cries of stolen election, I have no idea. It's another of those ideas that have fallen by the wayside (see also, disenfranchisement: Democratic Party primary voters, MI and FL)

[Other Tom]

Who is claiming that Obama is a stealth Muslim? I think stealth empty suit might be more apt. What, exactly, has this guy done?

[MayBee]

I think Hillary now looks to be the nominee and, I'm afraid, the next president.

Yes, I'm afraid of all those boomer women that are sitting at home just dying to vote for a woman for president. They don't go to rallies or volunteer for campaigns or probably ever talk about politics. But they are surely out there, just as surely as there is someone watching "The View".

[Other Tom]

Tradesports: Hillary 59.5, Obama 38.5. Reality bites the futures market.

[LT]

Just what we need...an affirmative action chief exec.....

[Sue]

But his poll numbers actually match his votes (more or less). It was Hillary people were embarrassed to admit they were voting for.

Obviously I'm not saying it well, because that is what I meant. Just as Bush's people didn't tell the truth with the exit polls in 04.

[clarice]

Phil Agee died in Cuba..(probably because of rotten health care IMO.)

[Rick Ballard]

"What, exactly, has this guy done?"

I believe that Hussein's actual accomplishments match up very well against those of the Red Witch. He's much smarter, a much better speaker and has broader, if not deeper, appeal.

Is he any more of an empty suit than Edwards?

[GMax]

Maybe its not the voters that are the problem with the exit polls, but the methodology and consistency to which the methodology is followed. In other words, operator error or a flaw in the design of the sampling. If you have young people taking the exit polling for example, and they decide that its a "two fer" and they decide they can get paid and also talk to hot babes or hot hunks, or the takers are shiftless and lazy and just make up stuff on a bunch of the voters for some reason, you have junk for exit polls.

[MayBee]

Is he any more of an empty suit than Edwards?

Edwards an empty suit? Please! If he is elected, nobody will ever be turned down for any medical procedure they want, or their family wants them to have. And Christopher Reeves will walk. And nobody will struggle like his parents managed to do.
Edwards' suit is only empty because he has transcended human trappings.

[SACIA]

Kenya and the US:

http://www.globalvoicesonline.org/2007/11/27/american-political-strategist-dick-morris-stirs-up-kenya-election-scene/

This guy may have been a Carville, which explains everyone's problems and Obama's. The US did say it's not for the current government, but the opposition after meeting with the President.

Agee was the guy who figured out Plame and her watch after Ames was arrested.

[MayBee]

Sue:
I think people who said they were going to vote for Obama or did vote for Obama did it because they didn't want to appear racist, but never had any intention of voting for him, black or white.
...
Obviously I'm not saying it well, because that is what I meant. Just as Bush's people didn't tell the truth with the exit polls in 04

I admit I am confused.
Obama's people, it seems, did tell the truth.

[Jay]

BHO is not likely a muslim today but he was one when he was a child in Indonesia. Islam does have a rule that if a muslim leaves the cult, I mean faith, the penalty is death. Don't believe me, look it up.

He nevertheless does have muslim sympathies. Even more importantly, he harbours strong anti-American views and pro UN, pro internationalism.

[PeterUK]

Obama - Empty rhetoric.

[PeterUK]

New Hampshire polling fiasco

[Sue]

Obama's people, it seems, did tell the truth.

The polling showed Obama up, in some polls by double digits. The exit polling showed Obama up by 5 points. Someone lied to the pollsters. I think Clinton's people lied about who they intended to vote for or who they actually voted for. My guess as to why they lied is two-fold. Racism or embarrassment. They didn't want to appear racist, when they probably weren't anyway, or they were embarrassed to admit they supported Hillary. I know I would be embarrassed to admit that one. ::grin::

[Rickter]

Melanie Phillips at UK Spectator, says Obama is our Princess Di. Link on my name.

[PeterUK]

"Edwards' suit is only empty because he has transcended human trappings."

Yes,even his hair is devine.

[MayBee]

The polling showed Obama up, in some polls by double digits. The exit polling showed Obama up by 5 points. Someone lied to the pollsters.

I don't know though, because Obama actually got the percentage of voters he was expected to get-- the people that said they'd vote for Obama really did.
The Hillary surge seems not to be made up of people that said they would or did vote for Obama.

[clarice]

MayBee what a wonderful description of him..Oh, and if we elect him everyone will be middle class and middle class will have everything they want including free college for their kids. It'll be paradise on earth.

[Sue]

Okay.

[Rick Ballard]

"Empty rhetoric."

In comparison to the Red Witch and Silky, Hussein shines brighter than the sun. Even the 'perfect' vacuum in space is filled with trillions upon trillions of photons. In comparison to his competitors, I believe that Hussein is far more substantive and shows a much deeper understanding of a general political pysche attuned to a plea for 'change'.

I believe that 'new' and 'free' will soon enter his rhetorical lexicon to great effect.

[clarice]

He picked up $8 million in contributions in the last 8 days and $500k in the past few hours.

[MayBee]

Okay.

Oh oh. Now I feel like I've annoyed you.

[PeterUK]

"It'll be paradise on earth."

Will that include free hair and nail care?

[Sue]

Oh oh. Now I feel like I've annoyed you.

Not at all. We are talking past each other saying the same thing. Only I'm not expressing it well so I'm stopping.

[MayBee]

Not at all. We are talking past each other saying the same thing.

If John Edwards is elected, we will always understand each other.

[Other Tom]

I'm not persuaded that Obama is smarter than Hillary, although he is indiputably a better speaker. I don't think either quality counts for much. Harry Truman, a fine president, was one of the worst speakers I have ever heard. Ronald Reagan was no genius, but he knew a few very big things. Jimmy Carter was highly intelligent; FDR was a bit of a dunce.

I agree that Obama has probably done as much as Edwards--one had six entirely undistinguished years in the senate, the other has two that are even less distinguished.

If Obama were white no one would be talking about him, and he wouldn't be running for president.

[Other Tom]

Here's a remarkable fact, accompanied by commentary from the McCain campaign:

"Exit polls found 64 percent of Tuesday's Republican voters still support the conflict — and Romney, whose criticism of Bush's management of the war has been muted, led McCain among those voters. But among the 34 percent who said they disapproved of the war, McCain had a wide advantage over the GOP field — even over Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the sole advocate of a U.S. withdrawal in the Republican field.

"John McCain brings credibility to the issue of the war—so much that he, the most ardent advocate of the war—attracts the votes of those who oppose it. That means something in the general election. People who want to see the war through and bring along others who oppose it in order to unite America have a champion in John McCain."

[Ted]

Except that John McAmnesty is a HUGE open borders, pro Mexican pandering liar.

Liar? Look up his "Comprehensive Immigration Reform" with the swimmer, Ted Kennedy. Z Visas...would have allowed even serious, violent, illegal aliens to remain in our country but putting in for a Z visa. And all their relatives would have been allowed to come here.

[Rick Ballard]

Ted,

So what?

If the Red Witch and McCain are both nominated then he's St. John, period. Even if they have to widen and deepen the Grand Canyon so he has a place to park his ego when he visits AZ.

[jimmyk]

I wonder if the NH voters reacted against the MSM's premature anointment of Obama. As if they wanted to say, "Oh yeah, you think you can decide this?" This could explain why Edwards voters might have switched to Hillary rather than the more ideologically similar Obama.

I don't think either Hillary or Obama can win a general election, but Hillary has the better shot. In a long campaign people will tire of his smooth rhetoric and start asking "Where's the beef?" Hillary comes across as having the beef, just not the heart (though maybe her little tearful interview softened her up in the voters' minds a bit).

[steve sturm]

Me disagrees, Tom. The MSM would have gone for some token negative coverage of Obama, and despite their investing so much into him, because they always be counted on to turn on whomever is standing atop the pile. Now that he lost NH, he's no longer (or at least not yet) the sure thing and thus the MSM will hold off going after him.

[anduril]

Somewhat tongue in cheek:

The Big No-Mo [Mark Steyn]

Looking at the winners and losers on the Republican side, I don't see a lot of the former coming out of New Hampshire:

Romney lost, because he came second, which is starting to look like a pattern;

McCain lost, because his margin over Romney is, as noted below, underwhelming enough to get his comeback written off as little more than a local phenomenon;

< > abee lost, because a distant third with no evidence of an Iowa bounce makes his caucus victory seem ancient history;

Giuliani lost, because he barely beat Ron Paul;

Paul lost, because he couldn't even beat Giuliani;

Thompson lost, because he's a big-time Hollywood guy with a hot primetime TV show and, even if he were totally incompetent, that ought to be worth more than one per cent.

Oh, well. On to Michigan, which is sure to have its own novel ways of damaging the "front"runners.

Maybe it's time to get behind Alan Keyes.

[Other Tom]

I'm 100% on board with Rick. Come November, Democrat vs. Republican, I couldn't care less about the border. I want a commander-in-chief, and I want sensible federal judges. All the rest is negotiable.

[Ralph Phelan]

(1) HRC's get-out-the-vote effort was pretty thorough - they had my wife down as a likely supporter, and she got 9 phone calls and a campaign worker ringer the doorbell in the last 2 days.

(2) Just to be cynical - is it possible the 9% the polls hadn't predicted were people voting multiple times under other peoples' names? Nobody checked my ID, just crossed me off the registration rolls.

[anduril]

I continue to believe that a McCain presidency would be a tragedy. How can a serial betrayer of his own party hope to govern? Governing is about persuading people to submerge their egos in a common cause, right? He remains me of a less likable Dole, who simply thinks it's his turn. Difference being McCain has ALWAYS thought it was his turn.

[anduril]

Sensible judges? Like McCain would be able to get a Democrat senate on board a program to appoint sensible judges? Not with his record on judicial appointments, I'm afraid. I could certainly submerge my personal aversion for the man if I thought he could accomplish those two things (lead a vigorous national security initiative, appoint even ONE sensible judge to the Supreme Court), but I have no confidence in that regard. The only way now to know that you're getting a sensible judge is to appoint someone who has a proven record of real intellectual commitment to a judicial philosophy. Because of McCain's past track record I have little to no belief he would appoint such a person or, if he did, get him through confirmation. I can see him giving us another Tony, Sandy Day (Reagan) or Souter (Bush).

[glasater]

"(2) Just to be cynical - is it possible the 9% the polls hadn't predicted were people voting multiple times under other peoples' names? Nobody checked my ID, just crossed me off the registration rolls." Thanks Ralph Phelan--you just made my case for me.

That could be a way to finagle the vote.

[MayBee]

If Obama were white no one would be talking about him, and he wouldn't be running for president.

That's a tough game to play though. If Hillary weren't a woman, would anyone be talking about her? Sure, she's a 1.5-term senator from NY, but she's only that because she was the wife of a popular (in NY) president. Which she could only be because she's a woman.

[anduril]

He remains me = He reminds me.

What's wrong with this damn keyboard?

[Der Hahn]

Edwards an empty suit? Please! If he is elected, nobody will ever be turned down for any medical procedure they want, or their family wants them to have. And Christopher Reeves will walk.

Maybee - Edwards can't cut it, you gotta be the Black Jesus to raise the dead.

[kindergentler]

Independents read in their morning papers, Obama to trounce and bury the campaign of Hillary Rodham, with or without your vote. But McCain is in an epic battle with Romney, and your vote could make the difference!

That puts all the Hillary camp's long faces, the tears, the anger into some perspective. It drove Independents to McCain instead of Obama.

A classic Clinton fake-out.

[Jane]

is it possible the 9% the polls hadn't predicted were people voting multiple times under other peoples' names?

Amy and I just had a big discussion about this, except in the context of people coming in from MA and registering at the last minute and voting in NH. Her contention is there just aren't that many corrupt people willing to go to the mat for any candidate. You would have to pin point dumb people who didn't know it was wrong, or corrupt people, and probably pay both of them. I just don't think you could find 6,000 zealots in MA or NH to do the deed. Then If you asked someone unwilling to go vote twice, the chance that he or she would talk to the press at some point is pretty good, particularly if they thought selling your vote was wrong. It just seems a bit unrealistic.

[Dan]

"Its clear that many people respond to pollsters that they would support Obama. But in reality they would not vote for a black man."

What a crock. You know, it's really low class to go around calling people racist without knowing them, and without any evidence. It's comments like your cheap shot that turned me away from the Democrats in the late 90s (after the fallout from the whole stupid OJ thing), and your comment in particular, which I've seen duplicated again and again on liberal sites, is a PERFECT example of why I'll keep voting independent or Repub until the Dems stop insulting me, stop with the identity politics and start giving me just a tiny bit of credit.

Sheesh.

[Neil Ferguson]

I predict that Republican primary voters will skew younger. Sufferers of arthritis find it difficult to hold their noses.

[MikeS]

The wonderfulness of Obama is something that exists purely in the eye, or in this case, the mind of the beholder. I say that because he hasn't done or even said anything wonderful politically. In fact some of the things he has said were frighteningly naive.

On the other hand Hillary's corruption, ethics, honesty, and administrative failures are more substantial and well known. Yet she probably wouldn't attack Pakistan if she is elected.

I think the only hope for Republicans is a candidate who can connect with independents and articulate the benefits of the Republican ideals of governance such as a smaller, more efficient, more effective, less intrusive government, a strong defense, and an economy that is not unnecessarily encumbered.

[JM Hanes]

I'm with GMax when it comes to the idea that if the polls were wrong someone must have been lying. Poll methodology is only as good as the last election, topped off with speculation about what might (or might not) change in the election they're measuring. In other words, it's a Catch 22: pollsters have to be able to predict what's going to happen -- before they design their models -- in order to design an accurate model. If they were querying everyone who cast a vote and the exit polls didn't match the actual results, there might be some basis in fact for the lie effect. When extrapolated results don't match the tally, I see no compelling reason to blame the voters.

I also agree with Semanticleo about the probable lack of substance to the Muslim slam on Obama.

[JayC]

I think we underestimate the extent to which the media gets restless with an existing story.

Everyone in the media wants to be First! or be Swimming Upstream Against the Current! or be the Only Contrarian Voice!, etc.

So, if you're running the same story everyone else is running, you look for a new angle. The only time the media will continue to run old stories is when they are deeply invested, like "We're losing in Iraq" or "We need more gun control"

[Rick Ballard]

I agree with Tic too. Imam Hussein is no more a muslim than was the pastor of his church was when he was with Louis Farrakhan. It's all just wicked taqiya talk.

[JM Hanes]

Dan:

"It's comments like your cheap shot that turned me away from the Democrats in the late 90s"

It's interesting that the folks who make the most outrageous comments (of that ilk and others) are so likely to be drop ins from some other universe. I also think the most stereotypically enraged space cadets are often lefties testing the water for applause.

[steveaz]

Hey Rick Ballard,
Viewing the Democratic Party's '08 slate as if they were three nondescript gold-fishes in a glass fish-bowl, to make the observation that, because this or that fish possesses pectoral fins that subjectively appear "more appealing" relative to the other fish's fins, then the first fish will be the "next President," says something important about the excessive significance too many award to superficial differences between same-party candidates.

Taking a look into the the Republican's fish bowl, I notice their community tank has 5 or more fishes in it, and that the fish are more diverse.
-s

[Porchlight]

Agree, JMH. I believe Hillary's support in NH was always solid, but the media freakout post-Iowa produced some wack poll results. The question should always be "why didn't the polls match reality," not the other way around. And exit polls are notoriously unreliable.

I think it's definitely possible there were some shenanigans with out-of-state people voting, people voting twice, etc. To some degree that's to be expected in a hotly contested election where nothing in the way of ID is required to vote. But no way could it account for 9%, especially considering not all the fraudulent voting was likely to go Hillary's way.

[Other Tom]

Anduril, I decline to let the perfect become the enemy of the OK. Neither McCain nor anyone else could get a Bork through the Senate. But either of the Dems (or all three, for those who think Edwards isn't as dead as Julius Caesar) is certain to appoint utter disasters. McCain would not appoint Lani Guinier. He would not appoint Bill Clinton. He would not appoint Laurence Tribe. And so on. Any of the Dems would appoint one or all of those, or their equivalents. How about Justice Eleanor Holmes Norton?

It's not so much whom McCain would nominate. It's whom he woudn't. And that's vital.

[JM Hanes]

Rick:

When the charges are elevated from guilt by association to something substantive, I'll take them seriously.

[GMax]

Massive voter fraud is more outrageous a claim than the one about fire cant burn steel.

to explain 9% of the Democrat vote in this manner, would be to have to think over 20,000 NH Dems or Indys deliberately pulled the lever twice.

In a tight race cheating can and has in the past made a difference. I cant recall an instance where a 3% differential could erased, except in far off countries where voting is controlled by the ruling dictator who thinks having a popular "mandate" is good for foreign aid, and maybe so adolation when heading to Turtle Bay.

[JM Hanes]

Via the NY Times Caucus Blog (thanks for the pointer TM!), here's Tom Brokaw:

But I think the people out there are going to begin to make some judgments about [the media], if they haven’t already, if we don’t begin to temper that temptation to constantly try to get ahead of what the voters are deciding, in many cases as we learned in New Hampshire, as they went into the polling place today or in the past three days.

The exchange with Chris Matthews is priceless.

[PeterUK]

JM HAnes,

"It's comments like your cheap shot that turned me away from the Democrats in the late 90s"

I think that was a complement.

[clarice]

Did you listen to the voters last night? I heard one woman who described herself as a teacher say she voted for McCain because she didn't like Romeny's "negative ads".She said she teaches kindergarten and they don't let the kids do that.

Now, those ads weren't "negative" unless you think pointing out the differences in your position and that of your opponent is "negative". We are becoming a nation of nitwits/girlies.

(I think McCain poicked up a lot of this "let's all make nice" crowd when Lieberman endorsed him.)
I do think people are uncomfortable with extreme partisanship --fair enough--but to eschew all conflict whatsoever. Sheesh!!

[david]

not everyone who participates in a poll votes in an election, it may be that many Obama supporters took victory as a given and therfore skipped voting, or were more apathetic than Hillary supporters.

[clarice]

Look at the bright side of all this "vote fraud" talk, maybe Justices Breyer and Kennedy and Ginsburg will see the wisdom of requiring voter I.D. , the case they heard last week.

[JM Hanes]

They're probably too busy reading the international press, Clarice.

[GMax]

Rudy unveiled a new tax plan today. The first summary I have seen is cut and pasted below. This plan would drive up the value of stocks, and will appeal to many who think the tax code is way too complex ( cuz it is ).

Here are a few of the things Rudy's plan would do:

... Make permanent the bush tax cuts NOW…not in 2010

... Permanently index the alternative minimum tax (AMT) and then eliminate it when practical (no timetable).

... Get rid of the Death Tax

... Lower the capitol gains and dividend rate to 10% and index to inflation. (Here is where he could go further and actually eliminate the capitol gains tax).

... Lower corporate tax rate from 35% to 25%.

... Trio of tax free savings accounts – Roth style – available to ALL income classes.

... Tax simplication strategy – one page tax return

... Three rates – 10% (40k), 15% (150k), and 30% (150k ).

It’s an optional tax plan. You can pick it or the current tax code. Unlike Thompson plan, you can opt in and out any year. For major deduction remain:

* Mortgage
* Charitable
* State and Local taxes
* Child tax credit

[Rick Ballard]

"When the charges are elevated from guilt by association to something substantive, I'll take them seriously."

I won't. He's a commie and whatever religious mask he chooses for the moment won't change that. I sppose we could hold a "who's a better chameleon" contest between Hussein, Red Witch and Silky but they are really undistinguishable except for lethality of venom. Red Witch is miles ahead in that department.

[kaz]

"Its clear that many people respond to pollsters that they would support Obama. But in reality they would not vote for a black man."

Here we go again. I heard the same tripe and a bunch of references to "Bubba" voters here in Virginia when Wilder ran.

I'm far from being in Jay Cost's league, but political polling is three parts science, two parts black art; especially the 'on the fly' polling like the exit stuff. Not only do you have to build a model of the typical voter, you have to project how likely he is to come out and play and do it on a deadline.

Yes, historical data can help project turnout, but when the MSM is trying so hard to build a Movement around a candidate, people don't act like they usually do, so turnout projections go squirrelly, the demographics and localities of the typical voter changes, and the poll results go south faster than a snowbird on a 747. The true wonder is not that they get it wrong sometimes, the wonder is how close to right they can get with some regularity.

[GMax]

If you are a follower of the leanings of the Supreme Court, you will like this I think. On the Indiana law which requires voter to produce ID in order to vote or file a provisional ballot and show up within ten days with either ID or sign an affidavit that you are who you claim there is this quote from the bench during oral arguments:

"You want us to invalidate the statute because of minimal inconvenience?" Justice Anthony Kennedy said near the end of an hour-long argument.

Given Kennedy is often a swing vote, how much do you want to bet on the Indiana law passing muster here by at least a 5-4 vote?

[Other Tom]

Not only that, GMax, but you'd have to believe that only Hillary supporters cheated--or that there were 20,000 more Hillary-supporting cheaters than Obama-supporting cheaters.

[TikTok2008]

Romney is such a loser that he leads the the only poll that counts, the delegate count.

Romney 30
Huckabee 21
McCain 10
Thompson 6
Paul 2
Giuliani 1
Hunter 1

Hillary is such a loser too:

Clinton 183
Obama 78
Edwards 52
Richardson 19
Kucinich 1

[Rick Ballard]

Thanks, GMax. That's the best news I've heard today. I've had my fingers crossed on Kennedy ever since Alito and Roberts were confirmed.

[hom]

Obama's brother looks like a CIA. He has the right degree to get noticed and classified. The voting in Kenya makes more sense. The reversal of the State Department rep makes more sense if someone 'on the ground' had some things to say about chemical bombs and WMD. Plame and Joe probably knew him!!!

I won't mention caucuses and Georgia and Murdock and elections.

[steveaz]

Rick,
Here's some more:

From Althouse today: Link: http://althouse.blogspot.com/

"I bet [Democratic "Analysts"] didn't know which candidate they preferred, and then when they saw Obama had won, they imagined they were perceiving that they preferred him before they saw the news. They mentally backdated their preference — and are happier for it."

The Dem primary is wish-fulfillment in a fish-bowl, not a real contest.

My gut says, the Party structure from coast to coast has preordained a Hillary/Who-ever ticket. The contest for them has always been between VP candidates. The media proliferation of "Obama vs Clinton" trivia conveniently obfuscates this fact to a national audience.

[cathyf]

I agree with Tic too. Imam Hussein is no more a muslim than was the pastor of his church was when he was with Louis Farrakhan. It's all just wicked taqiya talk.

I don't think that it really matters what Americans think about Obama's "Muslim past". What matters is whether some significant number of Muslims would view him as an apostate Muslim that they have a great moral obligation to kill.

Because the Salmon Rushdie lifestyle just isn't really consistent with the job of the presidency. Or even the job of presidential candidate. The Benezir Bhutto lifestyle is, of course, but we know how that worked out...