Powered by TypePad

« Needing Help With A Math Problem... | Main | McCain Wins Florida »

January 29, 2008

Comments

Jane

WEll they would have to do it soon to accomplish all that. My guess is once you get past the rhetoric, Obama is a bit of an empty suit.

MayBee

Brilliant analysis, TM.

soccer dad

Is 1960's nostalgia? Or "24" nostalgia?

anduril

Reminds me of some of the ideas James Piereson expressed in his recent book: How the Assassination of John F. Kennedy Shattered American Liberalism. Of course, when Piereson wrote he didn't have Obama to add to the mix--he was stuck with comparing the Lincoln and Kennedy assassinations. In this context, however, we might want to ask whether the media preoccupation fits some of what Piereson says about the aftermath of the Kennedy assassination:

Liberals who were rational and realistic accepted the fact that Oswald killed JFK but at the same time they were unable to ascribe a motive for his actions. They tended to look for sociological explanations for the event and found one in the idea that JFK was brought down by a "climate of hate" that had overtaken the nation. Thus they placed Kennedy's assassination within a context of violence against civil rights activists. They had great difficulty accepting the fact that Kennedy's death was linked to the Cold War, not to civil rights. Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., in his 1,000-page history of the Kennedy administration, published in 1965, could not bring himself to mention Oswald's name in connection with Kennedy's death, though he spent several paragraphs describing the hate-filled atmosphere of Dallas at the time -- suggesting thereby that Kennedy was a victim of the far right. The inability to come to grips with the facts of Kennedy's death pointed to a deeper fault in American liberalism which was connected to its decline.

From this perspective, perhaps this speculation represents a liberal longing for a renewal of what they still view as a period of national revulsion against the "climate of hate" engendered by...people who oppose their agenda. Didn't Bill Clinton suggest something of the sort with regard to Rush and the OKC bombing? Of course, this theory requires that there be liberals out there in the media who still think the Kennedy assassination really was a product of the right, rather than a hit by a wacked commie--one of their own.

vnjagvet

Both, SD.

Nostalgia is, like Romanticism, essentially a form of escapism.

There is a large segment of our population that would rather not cope with the realization that there are some pretty nasty, scary people out there plotting to kill some of us in a dramatic fashion in a way that in their twisted minds will further their interests.

9/11/01 should have brought that realization home. For a time, it did, but its effects have largely dissipated.

Perversely our success in detering any attacks over the past 6 1/2 years allows the escapists to dream on.

Do we need another JFK merely to stir things up?

That, of course, is mainly what he did.

After Ike kept things together after the Korean war, JFK stirred the pot. He stirred it almost willy-nillly in Vietnam, in Cuber and with the Soviet Union and China. All with bad or inconclusive results.

Naifs like me got JFK elected then, because we wanted to see a "new generation" in charge instead of our grandfathers' generation.

But 20 years later, it took a Reagan, a seasoned adult, (whatever else you might say about him) to get the national priorities back in order.

At least that's the way I see it.

Nostalgia and romanticism or any other form of escapism is something we can ill afford.

vnjagvet

Again, Anduril, an escapist view. And that RFK was killed by Sirhan, a Palestinian, is somewhat dissonant with the legend, isn't it?

anduril

vnjagvet, isn't "escapism" virtually a definition of liberalism? The dissonance of reality with liberal legend (re climates of hate, etc.) is Piereson's whole point.

Sue

Have they announced who the big endorsement for Hillary is?

vnjagvet

Classic liberals of like those of the age of enlightenment and their devotees like Abraham Lincoln, not so much, Anduril.

After all, at one time, even Churcill was a liberal.

"Neo" liberals like Schlesinger, on the other hand.......

PMain

Only problem for those worrying about Obama, is that the only political leaders being killed now-a-days are those trying to bring reform, democracy or at least, some moderation to Islamic ruled countries – a decidedly non-Democrat favored foreign policy, excluding Leiberman of course. Obama, in favor of pulling the troops, is seen as an ally & is safe.

But given the numbers of "non-black" voters that have actually voted for Obama so far, this may be a prelude to another revved up “America is racist” campaign of the left… especially following a stunning Obama defeat - either in the primaries or general election – by a white, male candidate... namely a Republican.

If Obama wins they get to pat themselves on their collective back for being so “progressive” & if Hillary wins they get to attack America w/o renewed vigor & still get one of their preferred candidates in office. If the Republicans win, it becomes just another example of stolen elections from those who would fear & kill a black man.

Rick Ballard

Abraham, Barrack and John just doesn't scan correctly. Abraham, Hussein and John is even worse.

Anduril - if you substitute "reality" for "hate" in that little lefty mantra I believe the crux of the matter is revealed. Over and over and over again.

Is "nostalgia" correct when referring to a desire to return to a time that never was? I like TM's analysis (or speculation) but I believe that Vnjagvet's romanticism describes the lib's inability to deal with reality more accurately. Hegelian historicism requires a fantastical romanticism coupled with a willful misuse of language in order to beguile the suckers who fall for it.

Other Tom

Interesting how the fact that the template didn't fit in two of the three--JFK at the hands of a Soviet-visiting, fair-play-for Cuba nutball, and RFK at the hands of the first Palestinian terrorist--didn't cause the media to skip a beat.

Remember all those post-Oswald stories about how it was the "climate of hate" in Dallas that did it? Remember the Stones, "I shouted out, Who killed the Kennedys, When after all it was you and me?" Remember Dan Rather, in his very first known instance of outright fraud, going on air with the news of the Dallas schoolkids who had cheered the news of JFK's death? (Actually, they didn't know anything about the event, but were cheering the news that school was cancelled for the day.)

If Obama were shot tomorrow by a jihadist, it would simply be the final proof that Bush has invited revenge not only upon all of us, but upon the most worthy and promising of us. Does anyone doubt that that would be the story line among these pathetic dopes?

PeterUK

"After all, at one time, even Churchill was a liberal"

Yes,but in those days they were real liberals,these liberals are socialists.

Rick Ballard

First absolutely meaningless exit poll results. The MOE would be around 10^6.

MikeS

I think there is a slice of our media (and our public) that is locked into a 60's nostalgia and regrets reading about that history rather than living it.

I think it is not just a slice, but about half the pie.

The predicament is this. It is an election year. The public loves a good story and the press loves to tell a good story.

vnjagvet

PUK - you are right, of course. That was the point I was trying to make, but I probably blew it.

PeterUK

vnjagvet,

I thought that was the case,sorry for being pedantic.Amazing how the collectivists have debased the word,all part of the newspeak so as not to frighten the children.

Rick Ballard

"Real" first exit poll reults
McCain 34.3
Romney 32.6
Giuliani 15.3
Huckabee 12

Letalis Maximus, Esq.

It ain't just liberal icons who get shot.

Can you say: George Wallace?

Letalis Maximus can.

vnjagvet

If that holds up, Rick, how does a two man race shake out?

Jane

Early returns say conservatives are going for Romney. If I recall correctly the part of the state in the next time zone, is very conservative, so Romney may have to wait for the late numbers.

Patrick R. Sullivan

Reagan took a bullet, and Ford twice dodged them.

Other Tom

The panhandle closes an hour later than the rest of the state. It is, indeed, more conservative than the rest of the state, but it also has a heavier military influence, including Pensacola, where McC went to flight school.

Rick Ballard

Vnjagvet,

I can't come up with a decent guess as to how Giuliani/Huckabee supporters might break later but Jane's comment concerning conservatives going for Romney combined with Rush grinding him every day will, IMO, be determinative.

Mavericks die alone on the range.

Other Tom

Bevan at RCP says that the nets will go with their projections at 7:00 Eastern even though the panhandle will still be voting.

If the maverick dies on the range, I'll be right there with him to the end.

Anon

Watch the conservative media do exactly what the Liberal media did in Florida which made that court catastrophe happen.

First.

Quote exit polls. Actually the ever Smit with Mitt NRO has found an exit poll with Romney in the lead.

Absentee voters could be upwards of 30% of the ballots according to the Tampa Tribune in just that area.

You can't exit poll the "absentee".
Absentee voters are militay and yes Instapundit links to the "wise" NRO that says McCain is overplaying his vet status?!

Hello it's friggin' Florida.

McChord, CENTCOM ,Key West NAS, SOUTHCOM, Patrick AFB, Jacksonville NAS, Eglin AFB largest in the free world, Pensacola NAS, Cape Canavarel, Hurlburt...

Ya -brilliant! Instapundit and NRO think McCain is over-playing his vet status.

Nevermind all the guys and gals who retired around those bases and the military stationed at other bases CONUS or over in the flippin' DMZ that vote absentee.

,b>Gawd Instapundit and the NRO are idiots or worse they think YOU are!

Let's not put it past them to forget that the Panhandle stays open til 7 pm central either and they'll pull the calling Florida early and then claim that Smit Mitt was robbed...

Wow-if these people have ever done anything they have rehabilitated my ability to vote for McCain.

Too bad the absentee ballot went to Giuliani-but basically what is going to happen is they're smear tactics will make the Giuliani voters who didn't vote early swarm to McCain.

Hell the brilliant idiots {the Smitt with Mitt bloggers} last night were quoting the LA Times with Rudy leaving theories.

Well what does that do?

It has those voters go to their second national security choice-McCain.

An quoting the LA Times or Zogby is a little like quoting Tokyo Rose...but by gawd if these idiots think it will "help" Smitt they'll do it.


With stupid friends like that who needs enemies...?

And lordy they could have absolutely finished off McCain in South Carolina, or New Hampshire but they split their own vote with Thompson.

Wow thank gawd these idiots defeat their own causes - Nobody Does It Better..

Anon

shorthand-

Mitt is going to get "spanked" and it's going to be because the Florida voters want to smack the hell out of his surrogates by abstentia.

Anon

absentia.

Sue

Let's not put it past them to forget that the Panhandle stays open til 7 pm central either

If it is 7:00 PM central time it is 8:00 PM eastern time. If the polls in the panhandle close at 7:00 central, then both close at the same time. Maybe you meant they stay open till 8:00 PM central?

Rick Ballard

Jane,

Did you catch the vet split on Fox? I thought it was reported as split with a 1 point difference? 36/35 is what I believe I saw.

Jane

Hey OT - do you know any local lawyers in Pensacola? A client called me tonite and needs one there this week for a very small matter. Don't spend a lot of time thinking about it, I have ways to find one.


Rick they are reporting it now. They split on the "right experience" McCain wins on strong commander in chief, Rudy takes from Romney 3%, hispanics and seniors get McCain, conservatives get Romney. I missed to vet thing this time but I recall it was close in the last report.

mary

Obama will be fine as long as he stays out of Ted Kennedy's car.

PeterUK

Bill Clinton and the White House

Rick Ballard

FOX NEWS EXIT POLL RESULTS
From Fox -

Senior Citizens– McCain 40, Romney 31, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 7

Veterans– McCain 37, Romney 36, Giuliani 14, Huckabee 8

Hispanics– McCain 50, Giuliani 26, Romney 16, Huckabee 5

The seniors could pull it out for McCain. He's done well with them previously and they're 33% of the electorate today in FL.

Other Tom

Jane--sorry, I don't. I could find one within a day or so if you like. Please lemme know.

Sue, as I understand it the polls in most of Florida close at 7:00 Eastern, whereas those in the panhandle close at 7:00 Central. I seem to recall that this was the principal reason for the entire election-eve flap in 2000, with the nets calling the state for Gore without including the panhandle (because they couldn't use those exits while the polls there were open).

Jane

No sweat OT. If my sources don't pan out, I'll email you tomorrow. But I think it will be fine.

Sue

Okay. I thought they closed at 8:00 on the eastern side, too. I knew the panhandle was open an hour later because of the time difference.

Jane

So if McCain ekes out a win he gets 57 delegates, but not a ton of momentum because of how close it was. It gives him an opportunity to get more money - altho he'll get $$ even if he loses slightly too because it is so close, and in reality it seems to become a money game, which Romney (as everyone keeps saying) can't lose.

Does anyone see it differently?

(At this moment they are tied at 30%)

Anon

According to the Florida Secretary of State's office, more than 474,000 Republicans and just over 400,000 Democrats have already voted. Early voting began January 14 and ended Sunday.

CNN

Ralph L

According to family lore, my dad's late cousin Fern was at Parkland Hospital when JFK was brought in (her husband was a surgeon). She was overheard telling him "I knew something would happen if LBJ ever got him down to Texas." They were also visiting the cemetery during Oswald's funeral. It got them investigated.

Anon

Rick-

Well, that exit poll smells McCain leads vets by 1%?

Plus vets are more likely to vote absentee-and Lowry is over at NRO saying that the exit polls include absentee voters...

How in the hell did they do that?

Did they hang out at the post office?

Other Tom

Jane, last I saw McC was up pretty big over the Mormon in Calif. If he wins by a slim margin, or even if he loses, in Florida I doubt that will have much effect. I also think "momentum" is almost comically overrated in conventions: except for those voters who see their preferred candidate drop completely out of contention, do significant numbers of people in State A actually change their minds about next weeks vote because of what happened this week in State B?

glasater

Anon--Since the ballots are already there for the particular precinct as absentee ballots they are counted first.

Larry

I was 10 feet from JFK's motorcade in San Antonio the day before he was shot. Heck, I could've shot him. I was dead agin him, but it was a very tragic event for all of us.

Jane

Interestingly enough the early returns say Romney is winning among evangelicals.

Jane

Wow Larry.

Getting to hear stuff like that is one reason why I love the internet.

Jane

Oh dear Ron Paul is only getting 3%.

Rick Ballard

Florida Sec. State site. It's updating regularly - click on the 'US President' under the Republican Primary label.

Very tight.

Porchlight

Since the ballots are already there for the particular precinct as absentee ballots they are counted first.

Sounds about right, but I would think those results would be considered early returns, not exit polls. And if so, a demographic breakdown of the exit polls wouldn't apply to absentee votes.

PeterUK

But,but,How can the man fail?

vnjagvet

Tight is right. I'm stuck blogging while the girls are watching Idol.

Whassup?

Jane

Porchlight,

Barone just said that in some cases the absentee ballots (which are significant numbers) are being reported in with the regular votes. Romney strongholds are not going as well for him as expected e.g. Orlando, but he is expected to do well in early voting because of organization.

arrowhead

Who in their right mind would want to relive the 1960s?

Rick Ballard

Vnjagvet,

CNN has their complete exit poll up and it's a mess. It does show McCain getting 40% of the vets to 35% for Romney (which sounds more reasonable to me) but if you do breakbacks on simple two choice questions you get conflicting results.

Flip a coin until you get an answer you like - it'll hold up for a long time.

vnjagvet

That was my impression, without any analysis, Rick.

Super Tuesday will be pretty important for both parties, it seems to me.

Rudy and Huck could stay in like Edwards, so either could play kingmaker, or at least have a say in the result. Interestingly, they are getting more votes each than he got.

The pros who analyse the campaign internals are going to be up all night and most of tomorrow spitting out pearls of wisdom which will govern the campaigns in the days ahead.

Political junkies will have a field day.

Ann

Gag Me, with the Hillary I WON Florida speech! The woman is a crook and shameless and .... I can't take anymore!

If a Republican tried her SHEnanigans, we would at least have enough honor to call them on it and not vote for them.

I am can still be a Proud Conservative Republican at the end of the day. Right??

Porchlight

Jane, I was thinking that exit polls are based on interviews with exiting voters, usually by a news outfit like CNN, whereas absentee ballots would be counted and reported by election officials. So Barone would be correct, we're seeing some absentee ballot results, but in the actual returns, not in the exit polls.

Unless I'm totally confused, which is always a possiblity. ;)

centralcal

Oh brother, this is so stressful! I guess Other Tom is happy with the returns so far! What is happening to the Republican party? I fear we are drifting leftward . . . and McCain is a clear indication of that.

Jane

I think you are right Porchlight. The absentee ballots are not part of the exit polls. It simply doesn't make sense that they could be.

Someone get a hook for the Huckster.

Ann

Oops..."I am can".

Rule: Always use preview when you are spitting and steaming mad! ;)

Jane

Look what Drudge has up:

"REPORT: Giuliani expected to endorse McCain, as early as Wednesday... "

Jane

Huh! I beat Fox!

hit and run

Jane:
"REPORT: Giuliani expected to endorse McCain, as early as Wednesday... "

OK, Jane, that sounds familiar. There was this other candidate that had that same rumor floated about him before SC.

Can't remember who it was, probably because whoever it was was lazy.

Steves

Great site!

Would you like a Link Exchange with The Internet Radio Network? At the IRN you can listen to over 60 of America’s top Talk Shows via Free Streaming Audio! In addition you can email the President, VP and Congressional Leaders!!
http://netradionetwork.com

Porchlight

Someone get a hook for the Huckster.

Oh, please, yes. And one for "Dr. Paul" too.

PeterUK, per your earlier link, Arlo's daughter and son-in-law are friends of ours here in Austin, and the son-in-law is a Paulbot, so I'm not too surprised. Classic "Austin musician" politics - so silly.

hit and run

Fox calls for McCain.

Jane

AP has called it for McCain.

Jane

Fox too.

Patrick Tyson

McCain will be the Republican nominee.

MayBee

Poor Steve and his link exchange. I wonder how many people he gets in all his web travels.

Well. I'm happy about McCain, although crushed about my Rudy.

hit and run

I agree Patrick.

Rudy drops out before Super Tueday, does he not? If so, more votes for McCain.

Rick Ballard

"McCain will be the Republican nominee."

Yeah. How stupendously exciting.

MikeS

I'm impressed by the Republican turnout.

centralcal

McCain wins. Congratulations to him. All's fair in love, war and politics. Rudy is endorsing McCain. I hear the death knell of the conservative Republican party in the distance. Whether he beats Billary or Obamamessaiah, makes no difference, and honestly, I don't think he can beat Obama.

I feel like I did when our candidate was Dole. A lost cause.

Patrick Tyson

McCain takes the lead in delegates tonight and I believe he is already well ahead in the polling in most, if not all, of the winner-take-all contests next Tuesday. Given that, there's no realistic scenario by which he won't eventually win enough delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot.

hit and run

**If** McCain is indeed the nominee, let me be unequivocal about this point: I WILL pull the lever for him in November.

No questions asked.

There. I said it. I mean it. Don't like the taste of those words coming from my mouth. But I won't even consider any other option.

MayBee

Ruuuuuuuuudddddddddyyyyyyyyyy [[[[sob]]]]

Porchlight

I'll vote for McCain, but I won't like it.

My youngest has been sobbing in her crib for fully 30 minutes - she must have some sixth sense about the election.

MayBee, sorry about Rudy. I wish it hadn't come to this.

Rick Ballard

H & R,

That's the correct attitude and I agree with it. It will be interesting to see a national shoe string campaign based upon cutting "pork" (a truly infinitesimal percentage of the budget) while keeping entirely silent about the income redistribution that sucks up a thousand times as much money.

We are extraordinarily fortunate that the Dems have even less on offer wrt Presidential candidates than we do.

Ann

Looks like the election might be between "The Messiah" and "The Mc Curmudgeon"! Hope I am wrong, really, really, wrong.

Pofarmer

I hear the death knell of the conservative Republican party in the distance.

What don't kill ya makes ya stronger.

Clarice

I'm starting anationwide class action suit demanding a do over of this whole thing.

hit and run

Just for you, MayBee, part of an email I sent to Michael Ledeen the other day, after he wrote this on the Corner:

Ledeen:

I Guess Rudy Just Didn't Want it Enough [Michael Ledeen]

Right? I mean if all the pundits could say that about Fred, why aren't they saying it about Rudy, who is only now beginning to fight?

Me:


I mean, it's no accident he's basically been in Florida for the entire primary season, is it? That he essentially based his entire campaign on winning Florida and not competing anywhere else, necessitating a near continuous presence in the state.

Florida: where New Yorkers go to retire.

Rumors from anonymous sources confirm the existence of gossip from people who have overheard others talking that Carl Cameron has an anonymous source close to the candidate who states Rudy never wanted to be President -- he really just wanted a campaign-financed extended house hunting trip for his retirement home, and was only intent on staying in the race until wife Judi and he agreed on the home they would purchase.

Oh, to ensure there is no misunderstanding -- this was just a part of my grieving process for Fred. I have nothing against Rudy and while I have no literal tears at his departure from the race, I do regret that he is leaving now, before Huck and McCain especially.

Anon

It's going to be Hillary vs. McCain with McCain winning a majority of the popular vote and an excess of 300 electoral votes..

Pofarmer

Well Hit

On this we have to disagree.

If McCains on the ticket in Nov, I absolutely write in Thompson. I can vote for Romney, I can even vote for Huckabee. I cannot vote for McCain.

Rick Ballard

Are you missing the excitement of Bob Dole's campaign, Clarice?

Clarice

Our long national nightmare begins.
I predict as I have for a long time that CLinton's running mare is Evan Bayh.
Who will be McCain's?

vnjagvet

I am a Steele man, myself. Either with Romney or McCain.

centralcal

"Our long national nightmare begins ..."

Couldn't have said it better myself Clarice, as McCain stands beside Mel Martinez, with Juan Hernandez waiting in the background, I suppose.

I just hope that the nightmare doesn't last any longer than the Carter presidency.

Other Tom

Wahoo! McCain's a good man, in the final analysis, and the difference between him and Hillary is the difference between survival and ultimate decay.

I'm happy for him.

vnjagvet

Given we are still at war, we could do worse than McCain.

Ann

Centralcal,

I just told my husband that it looks like four more years of a Carter Administration. Take all of your investments and put them under the mattress. Can't wait to see what the stock market does tomorrow.

Hit, where are we all moving too?

boris

McCain has a ghost of a chance against RW and I'd vote for him but if it's McCain vs Obama he is toast.

centralcal

Boris: John McCain is toast no matter what.

Ann: I agree with how you and your husband's thinking.

A win tonight for Liberals everywhere, and most especially in the media.


vnjagvet

Don't move, Ann. It will be ok.

I still have a prejudice against voting for senators, but I may not have any choice.

It looks I will have to decide on which senator.

Troubling.

My test in time of war is who would make the best CIC. Hands down, there is no real question in my mind. Among the senators, it has to be McCain.

Clarice

McCain can beat Clinton and no matter what, at the moment she is a better bet to beat Osama than he is to beat her.

Clarice

OT is such a pessimist but he's almost always right. Rats!

Patrick Tyson

As to McCain's running mate, Huckabee has certainly earned the nod, whether he gets it or not.

I'm going to go do some reading. I think it can be argued that the Ames Straw Poll on August 11th last was the pivotal event that confirmed/determined the strategies of the four leading contenders at that time and that these strategies allowed Huckabee to mount a campaign, largely unhindered, that by December seriously disrupted the strategies of three of the four and that continues to help clear a path to the nomination for the fourth.

vnjagvet

OT:

Looks like our shared life experience informs our judgment.

I'm with you.

Rick:

There are a few similarities there, aren't there? I hold out as hope that there was no war going on in 1996.

centralcal

Whatever. It is a sad night for most of the things I hold near and dear.

McCain ... Hillary ... Obama. I don't see any significant difference. Actually, that is probably unfair to Obama. He might grow, who knows?

Oh, and Clarice, I needed at least one soft chuckle tonight - You are parroting Teddy Kennedy! ha ha. It's OBama not OSama!

The comments to this entry are closed.

Wilson/Plame