McCain Wins Florida

As Mickey notes, per the CNN exit poll McCain tied with Romney among Republicans at 33% - 33% but carried the self-identified independents who made up 17% of voters by 44% - 23%.

In addition, McCain lost to Romney among whites (84% of total) by 34% - 33% but buried Romney with Hispanics (12%), 54% -14%.

The evangelical or born-again vote (39%) split essentially evenly amongst Huckabee (29%), McCain (31%), and Romney (29%), which bodes poorly for the Huck.  Among white evangelicals the split was 315 for Huckabee, 28% for McCain, and 31% for Romney.

FEEL THE TERROR:  Hit & Run comments and queries:

As you would expect, McCain beat Romney with voters who viewed Iraq as the top issue, McCain 45, Romney 19

But did you expect that Romney would beat McCain with voters who viewed terrorism as the top issue?  McCain 26, Romney 29

Hmm - among Republicans, the four most important issues were illegal immigration (16%), Iraq (14%), the economy (45%), and terrorism (21%): that adds to 96%, so there weren't many other answers, even if there were other choices.

However, on the Democratic side, the top issues were the economy (55%), Iraq (24%), and health care (18%), summing to 97%.

Now for years it has been Democrats insisting that the war on Iraq has nothing to do with and is separate from the war on terror (or, as Rudy prefers it, the terrorists' war on us).

So why in these polls is terrorism a separate issue for Republican respondents but not Democrats?  A possible partial answer would seem to be that Republicans have acknowledged the Dem talking point and separated the two issues, and folks inclined to do that might be disinclined to favor the uber-Hawkish McCain.

But does that also mean that at most 3% of Democrats consider the war on terror to be the most important issue?  Could be!

As a second data point, in the New Hampshire polls Democrats highlighted the same three issues and Republicans the same four.  My guess is that this reflects the question design, which is just absurd - would it kill these pollsters to ask Dems about illegal immigration and the war on terror and Republicans about health care as important issues?

OK. I see the same thing in South Carolina - the three Dem issues add to nearly 100%, as in New Hampshire; the same is true of the four Republican issues, as in New Hampshire.  Evidently some bright light designed this so we could get useful state-by-state comparisons within each party, but comparisons of the two parties are impossible. 

Well, beyond the fact that we might actually learn something useful about the relative views of the two parties, I would think, if I were a Dem strategist, that this poll construction reflects poorly on my party and puts it in a bad light.  Folks will mock the Dems as weak on national security anyway, but they certainly get added ammunition from the fact that Dems don't even consider the war on terror o be an imprtant issue (or do Dems now fully conflate the war on terror with the war in Iraq?  I'm getting dizzy!)

Or was CNN shielding the Dem respondents from their own embarrassing answers?  It would be pretty mortifying, one might think, if 25% of Dems thought health care was the most important issue and only 3% gave emphasis to terror.  I'll give you my health care plan - prevent terrorists from flying planes into buildings!

ERRATA:  In South Carolina, McCain won the "Iraq" voters 52-24 but barely edged Huckabee (33-30) among the "terrorism" voters.  However, in New Hampshire McCain did well among both groups.

In South Carolina,

Comments

[Clarice]

I thought you had to be a registered Republican to vote in this primary.

[hit and run]

Yes, but you could be an independent who registered repub to vote in this primary.

Registration deadline was Monday, Dec 31.

And then self-identify as independent in the exit poll.

[Clarice]

cute.

[hrtshpdbox]

Thompson stayed in the race long enough to prevent Huckabee from winning South Carolina, only fitting now that Huckabee will stay in the race long enough to prevent Romney from getting the nomination.

[hit and run]

Well, Fred got the same percentage of the vote in FL that he got in NH.

So there!

And his support among 25-29 year olds was 500% greater than his level of support among the overall voting.

[hit and run]

As you would expect, McCain beat Romney with voters who viewed Iraq as the top issue, McCain 45, Romney 19

But did you expect that Romney would beat McCain with voters who viewed terrorism as the top issue? McCain 26, Romney 29

[pete]

"Less jobs, more wars" Vote McCain

[Brainster]

Hugh Hewitt's going to have to dig deep to find the pony tomorrow.

:)

Looking forward to being able to listen to Hugh's show again; maybe next week.

[pete]

Even though Floridian Dems knew that they were stripped of their delegates - how could one be less motivated to vote - Democratic voter turn-out was just a tad lower than the Rethugs.

BushCo is going to do some serious jail time.

[Jane]

The voters came out on the property tax issue pete. Given your apparent soothsayer ability I would have assumed you knew that.

[Pofarmer]

but buried Romney with Hispanics

So much for "no amnesty".

[Tom Maguire]

only fitting now that Huckabee will stay in the race long enough to prevent Romney from getting the nomination.

I think there is a Baptist-Mormon thing going on that I don't get.

But did you expect that Romney would beat McCain with voters who viewed terrorism as the top issue? McCain 26, Romney 29

The sharp eyes of H&R pose us a puzzler.

[JM Hanes]

Contemplating how folks like pete would react to yet another Republican administration may be the only thing that actually makes the prospect of voting for McCain tolerable.

[Jane]

I draw the line at a McCain Huckster Ticket. I will not vote for anyone from Hope Arkansas. - ever. I won't even vote from someone who has passed thru Hope Arkansas. I simply have to draw the line somewhere.

[JM Hanes]

I'll be standing on that wall with you, Jane. I didn't pay much attention to all the sucking up Huckabee's been doing till it suddenly occurred to me that McCain might see Huckabee as the perfect guy to deliver the religious vote that he's been struggling to attract. In general, I try to avoid thinking about potential appointments in a McCain administration.

[Syl]

News flash:

I heard that Edwards will be dropping out today.

[Soylent Red]

I heard that Edwards will be dropping out today.

Just now confirmed on FOX. He'll do the press conference and endorsement later today.

Poor, poor, pitiful Silky Pony. Perhaps he'll go back to his enormous house, lay on a big pile of money, and brood over the fate of the poor.

[Sue]

Jane & JM,

I was listening to a pundit this morning who said McCain wouldn't pick Rudy, he didn't bring him anything, but a governor would. Without naming names. Or reasons. But earlier, he said a governor would bring executive experience that McCain lacked. If it is McCain/Huckabee, I'm out. The dems can have it. I'm still waffling on McCain and someone else.

[Jane]

This is Great news:

Jim Ogonowski has set his eyes on the Senate seat held by Senator John Kerry.

Republican Jim Ogonowski, a Dracut farmer and retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, said he will go head-to-head with Kerry in November. Kerry, a Democrat, has been in office since 1985.

Ogonowski’s announcement comes just months after he lost a close battle for the 5th Congressional District seat to Democrat Niki Tsongas in October.

“With the lowest approval ratings in history, it is clear that Washington is broken and the people of Massachusetts are demanding a new voice that will fight for their interests. No one represents the status quo, business as usual mentality in Washington, more than John Kerry,” said Ogonowski, 50, in a statement.

“Last summer, we started a movement right here in Massachusetts - a call for change that has resonated across the state and the nation,” he said.

“It’s a call to change the way Washington does business. It’s public service for the right reasons. That means serving the people and not the lobbyists and Washington insiders.”

~~~

Ogonowski nearly beat Nicki Tsongas last fall which is amazing given her name recognition (widow of Paul Tsongas) and the make-up of the state.

Ogonowski's brother was one of the pilots on 911 whose plane was forced into the WTC.

I just volunteered to help.

[Syl]

Kristol called McCain/Huckabee a few weeks ago. FWIW

[Jane]

Bob Beckel called McCain Romney this morning.

[kaz]

Not just no, but hell no.

I'm willing to hold my nose and vote for McCain/Romney or McCain/Thompson if I'm forced there by circumstances beyond my control. Any ticket with the Huckster on it loses me and my vote.

A 'Gates' [as in Bill]Romney or a 'Darth' Thompson bring at least a little conservatism to the table and have the potential to help moderate the worst of McCain's populist impulses. The Huckster would amplify them beyond the tolerable.

If McCain picks Huck, I'll be up on the wall with Jane and JMH. The country may be headed to socialist hell either way, but I won't help put a Republican punch on the train ticket.

[Corey Cronrath]

Thank you for an article that is fair to Sen. McCain. I especially liked that you mentioned that while people who view terrorism as an issue narrowly voted Romney, most of them think Iraq is a separate issue. This is a favored talking point for liberals. I've heard that a Romney flack complained that Rudy took votes from him in S. Florida. Now that Rudy will endorse McCain, they're going to turn around and say Mitt is the 'conservative' candidate. I suppose it is as consistent as anything else that flip-flopper has said.

[Syl]

I love the Huck as an authentic person and a brilliant communicator. I still don't want him in the whitehouse.

I wish he'd run for the Senate or something. I'd like to see him in D.C., just not sure what as.

[Sue]

I'd like to see him in D.C., just not sure what as.

How about court jester?

[Rick Ballard]

Apparently McCain has already become a Baptopalian (he embraces rigidly weak theology?) so adding the Huckster to attract more Baptists seems a rather weak strategy. I believe it's safe to drop "evangelical" as the adjective of choice in reference to both the Huckster's and McCain's religious adherents.

If one reads the quotes from the AP article and considers McCain's "finger on the pulse" blind obstinacy on immigration (followed by an exqusitely clumsy volte-face) one might consider investing in Pfizer (makers of Dramamine) on the basis that watching the Straight Crock Express lurch accross all lanes as it heads in every direction will have a strong impact on demand for the product.

[Jim in Chicago]

Jeb.

[MayBee]

I won't even vote from someone who has passed thru Hope Arkansas. I simply have to draw the line somewhere.

That seems entirely reasonable to me.

[MayBee]

I don't see McCain going for Huckabee at all. McCain is too stubborn to put such a lightweight in at VP.
I'd like to see Romney, but they hate each other.

[Great Banana]

McCain V.P. - Rick Santorum - try and get Pennsylvania and make conservatives happy.

[Rick Ballard]

Great Banana,

Wouldn't Talent work as well? Santorum might a bit stronger with Reps but the struggle is for the Muddle and Santorum has a little problem there (as evidenced by his loss).

[MayBee]

Crist.

[GMax]

but buried Romney with Hispanics

So much for "no amnesty".

Not the proper way to interpret the results in my opinion. Hispanics is not a very good term. It can mean PRs in NYC, Cubans in South Fla, Mexians in Arizona or Even Brazilians almost anywhere a soccer game breaks out. These groups share almost nothing except maybe a language at birth. Not even that for Brazilians.

Cubans have benefited from out policies vis a vis the Castro Regime. If you make it out onto dry land you can stay by policy as you are fleeing a hostile regime. Same policy does exist for other Hispanics.

So Cubans dont get jazzed about amnesty plans. They mostly have their family here or cant get them out of Cuba.

Dont forget Mel Martinez and Charlie Crist both endorse McCain. Both men are well thought of in the Cuban community and I am sure those endorsements are what you are seeing, not some rush for a man with an amnesty plan.

[GMax]

You know if McCain were shrewd he would think seriously about adding a young and well spoken conservative to the ticket. Someone who has gotten elected Statewide in a Blue state but still sounds like a conservative.

How about Michael Steele?

[MayBee]

Hillary has a new ad playing here in CA that evokes the weepy-eyes moment. She's saying a similar thing, and her voice is a little chokey. The camera catches her eyes that, while not teary, are definitely moistish. My whole family laughs at it.

[bio mom]

I don't think he would pick Huckabee. He is fine with religious conservatives mostly. He is quite pro-life. His problem is with economic conservatives and with conservatives who mistrust him over McCain-Feingold and immigration issues and judges. I do think it would be a conservative governor.

[boris]

Except I doubt McCain gets that conservative Republicans don't like him. He thinks he is one and they don't.

[Clarice]

I hope Clinton wins for the Dems and ROmney picks Michael Steele--

[Clarice]

I meant McCain (because I think he's got it.)

[GMax]

Except I doubt McCain gets that conservative Republicans don't like him.

I am sure he gets it. One reading of Michelle Malkin should be all that takes. He thinks he is conservative enough, and is smart enough to drag the a big chunk of the muddle to the R side of the ledger.

I do think that he will be much better on judges than either of two clowns on the other side of the aisle. That will have to be my sustanance. Well that and enjoying the man who the nutroots could not beat, Joe Lieberman out on a Democrats for McCain march. It serves them right, and will likely happen even in the general election as he has already made appearance in the primary.

[Sue]

McCain has spent an entire career sticking it to conservatives. And now, we are making him the nominee. ::sigh::

I hope McCain understands that we won't have his back when he pulls one of his stunts. He'll be on his own. Hope he has enough indys to keep him warm.

[Patrick Tyson]

McCain could twist the knife by selecting Huckabee (I know I'd be tempted) and, as I wrote last night, he owes a great deal to Huckabee, but I make no claim to have any idea what he'll do. There are other strong candidates. There's zero chance it'll be Romney and I can't bring myself to believe that either Thompson or Giuliani are interested.

Rick—

Are you going to attend the caucuses on the 9th?

[MayBee]

Now, I actually think McCain is quite conservative in some ways. I don't know how he's gotten the rap that he sticks it to conservatives. I'll acknowledge that he too often has stuck it to Republicans, but I don't see how he gets a blanket anti-conservative condemnation.

[Rick Ballard]

Patrick,

Undecided. It depends on the results of the 5th. I lean toward going but if McCain looks unstoppable then I'm not putting a dime nor a second towards anything that might help him and I don't feel like explaining that at a caucus.

I'll continue to express a strong antipathy to sharing the same planet with the Red Witch so I suppose that could count as "support" for a man whom I neither trust nor find admirable.

[Patrick Tyson]

I think I'll still go just to participate in a process I've never before participated in. It'd almost be worth moving to New England for a year to participate in a town meeting.

I, of course, have no problem with McCain and I'd have had no problem with Giuliani or Thompson either. Romney lost me for good in Michigan and Huckabee (fascinating campaign) and Paul (fascinating supporters) were never an option though there's still no way I'd have voted for Clinton.

[hit and run]

Well, I had the Huck as McCain's Veep thing back on Dec 11

Though I was sock puppeting at the time.

Right. As soon as you do, as soon as [McCain] gets the nomination, you wanna know what he does?

Select Huck as Veep. What? You think he's gonna name some immigration restrictionist? Some anti-McCain-Feingoldist? Some water-boading-lovin'-torturist? Those are non-negotiables with him.

McCain-Huck '08

The Stickin' It In The Eye Of As Many Conservatives As We Can Tour

UPDATE: Conservatives Respond: We'll poke our own eyes out, thank you very much.

FURTHER UPDATE: Huckabee Responds: Good. It would be a sin not to vote for me and Jesus said in such situations you should gouge your eyes out.

[boris]

McCain is quite conservative in some ways

The old guard in the former USSR was often called "conservative". People define and use the term in more than one way. IMO McCain lacks prudence and respect for traditional conservative principles. He bases his politics on gut reaction to issues, which may make him tough, but far too often wrong.

[Soylent Red]

For all the learned commenters herein, I offer for your consideration:

JC Watts.

Black. Very Conservative. Very religious (Baptist, no less). Steals the thunder from all the various groups who don't like McCain, on both the Left and the Right. Even Rush likes him.

IOW: A perfect McCain Veep.

[Brainster]

BTW, did somebody around here predict McCain by five?

Yep.

[pete]

"Less Jobs, More War" Vote McCain

Paid for by really old guys that wouldn't survive the next 5 years either.

[Appalled Moderate]

Good Lord, I find myself agreeing with boris (which is going to have us all reviewing our preconceptions, isn't it?). McCain sees himself as a present-day Teddy Roosevelt -- which, indeed, makes more a "Progressive" than a Conservative. From a non-terminology standpoint, this brings him in the camp that believes government must intervene in favor of the good, and against the bad.

Franly, in 2008 terms, this looks more like the politics of a latin american caudillo, than anything that comports well withe the Reagan tradition, and is a recipe for aribtrariness intermixed with relentless do-gooder-ism.

[Rick Ballard]

"this brings him in the camp that believes government must intervene in favor of the good, and against the bad."

Good analysis, AM. The Muddle will have to choose between two individuals holding the same Weltangschauung, using slightly different vocabularies and appeals to make their case. Unfortunately, only one of them will understand what they're doing.

'Vote X because Y is worse!' has never been a particularly successful political strategy when the matchup involves weak resumes wrt issues of importance. Fortunately, McCain has an ACU rating that provides a significant contrast to Clinton's. Unfortunately, the Muddle won't be particularly swayed by that information.

[Pofarmer]

Talent would be a good conservative choice. Unfortunately, he lost his Senate seat to McCaskill in an election that was most likely decided by fradulent votes that the State Attorney General(who happens to be a Democrat) doesn't seem too interested in investigating.

There has been some overtones that Matt Blunt has decided not to run for a second run as Gov becuase he was offered a VP slot by Romney, but that's just heresay.

[Clarice]

TM, I suspect the private polls break down this issues so that they are of greater value, but then I'm in the you get what you pay for crowd.

[Clarice]

**thESE issues***

[lurker]

Hi! A black female VP would be a good one.

JC Watts and Michael Steele would make it harder for the SC black voters to decide - whether to vote for Obama or JC Watts or Michael Steele.

I'd hate to think Huck would be McCain's VP but I will end up voting for McCain if he wins the nomination even with Huck.

Why?

Because of the USSC judge replacement rate.