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January 07, 2008

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PeterUK

"Both drew large crowds. But Clinton’s crowd was much smaller at the end of her speech than at the beginning.

Hundreds of people trickled and then streamed out while Clinton was still talking. But she went on and on as if she did not mind. And maybe she didn’t."

I'm beginning to understand Bill better.

Patrick Tyson

It doesn't get any better than this for Senator Obama. There is a real possibility that New Hampshire voters, in voting for him, could deal the fatal blow to the campaigns of both Senators Clinton and McCain tomorrow.

GMax

If you want to read a smart guy on the current horse race, I would highly recommend anything by Jay Cost. This piece is especially insightful I think:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/01/is_1992_the_model_1.html>Jay Cost on the Horserace

enjoy

PS note his comment about Guiliani and the parallel to the path Bill Clinton followed to the nomination. He does not say it, but we could be looking at two brokered conventions, and the Democrats have many more super delegates to pack hacks than the Reps, all of which have been thought to be bought and paid for by Clinton. What if she finishes a close second a bunch, wins a few near the end and the party faithful stay bought and paid for? Could be interesting schism in the Democrat Party.

Jane

TM,

I read something yesterday that your Hillary crowd was shipped in, expenses paid from MA and NY.

RichatUF

GMax-

Could be interesting schism in the Democrat Party

That is why they have created election law. I'm so hoping that the Democrats can't help themselves and start sueing one another over the primaries and convention. It would be so much fun to watch.

clarice

I doubt that will happen. It would be more than a schism. It would be the end of the party. And it would cost them the general election. Besides, as Rick reminds us so often, Dean heads the DNC and he hates the Clintons.

Patrick Tyson

Cost is wrong. She's finished if she loses by double digits tomorrow.

GMax

Patrick with all due respect to your opinion, I will just point out that Cost was dead on 4 years ago on so much, and was a master at picking thru polls and finding out how they were cooked to make the Democrat look better. I will stay with Jay until he gives me a reason to doubt his analysis.

LindaK

Point of information. What are the obligations of the super delegates? If Hillary continues to lose in the primaries would these folks have any incentive to hang tight with her?

Rick Ballard

Gmax,

Cost was a bit overenthusiastic in '06 and Patrick came closer in his assessment of the probable outcome. I enjoy Cost and find his analysis useful but he misses the logistical angle from time to time.

Dean is killing Clinton softly and it ain't because he's an Obama acolyte.

GMax

Do bought politicians stay bought? An interesting conundrum.

Also one interesting glitch in the whole earlier and earlier primary flap, apparently Hillary is the only Dem candidate on the Michigan ballot. If that is true, ( still trying to confirm ) and she loses that one she is finished! But somehow I doubt she is done until every last nickle has been spent, several campaign adviser are publicly thrashed and fired and the slime bucket comes out and is thrown all over the newly annointed savior of the Dhimmis.

Other Tom

I love this from Shrum: "Contrary to the caricatures, Hillary Clinton is a real person, often funny in private, with engaging qualities that have been well-hidden in this campaign."

How many losers have you heard this about? Do Al Gore and John Kerry come to mind?

Patrick Tyson

Thanks, Rick.

GMax, I was also closer in '04 and a week earlier, but I'll be the first to admit that I've been fairly cautious and just plain lucky when I've been predicting the political future in comments on bulletin boards and blogs. It's a lucky streak that goes back to 1992.

Also, I have a great deal of respect for Jay and I wish him every success in what he's doing. He put himself out there in 2006 and he stepped right up when things didn't work out the way he thought they would.

At some point, perhaps this year, I'm going to get it wrong and I can only hope that I take it as well as he did.

Best.

Larry

All the girls like her. She even makes her own clothes!

Other Tom

Is Cost correct that Hillary has the money? I saw somewhere today that the war chest is running low and contributions are drying up. Who's right? Anybody know?

Frankly, I hope Cost is right. The ideal result, at least to me, would be for Hillary to win after a hard-fought, bitter struggle. She would enter the presidential contest not only as inherently divisive among the population at large, she would have become a polarizing and divisive force within her own party. Couldn't ask for more than that...

clarice

True, dat,OT, but Shrum says she's out of money and can't raise more.

GMax

If she has really burned through 100 Million dollars before the primaries begin in earnest, she deserves to lose. That level of spending is mind boggling if true.

Appalled Moderate

OT:

Hillary the nominee could become Hillary the president. Because the GOP race could be just as polarizing and divisive -- particularly if Huckabee does well down south.

About the only thing the country needs less than politics Bush style is politics Hillary style. (Small initiatives with polarizing rhetoric to conceal that nothing much is really happening)

cathyf

One of the things which has been pointed out but I think not appreciated about this primary season is that it is the first time in modern times (since we've used primaries rather than conventions for nominations) that there are races going on in both parties. In every other race, either an incumbent or sitting vice president made one race not competitive.

So, I wonder, what will be the effect on the "muddled middle" -- that mass of voters which includes true independents, but also a whole lot of people who are not particularly well-informed and vote on the basis of rather stupid reasons. My current theory: the dopes will all pile over to the democratic ballot so that they can tell their grandchildren that they helped elect the first black president. Leaving the republican primaries to the actual republicans.

In other words, for the democrats this is much like their normal primary process, where democratic voters to some extent get drowned out by the kibitzers and the clueless. But for republicans it is going to be a unique event, and so we need to be careful of using previous races to predict this year's process. The big loser, of course, is McCain -- all those people who like voting for "mavericks" will vote for Obama.

Anybody think I'm missing something important here?

Rick Ballard

I ain't buying Shrum's knockdown on Clinton finances. She didn't burn through $36 million before the end of the year and the ROI on Clinton rental is fairly high - ask Marc Rich or James Riyadi or... hell, ask anybody.

PeterUK

The First Lady of Boring is behind Obama in three polls

clarice

Rick--I don't know. Her initial strategy was to run as inevitable, piling up more money by hook and crooks, buying up supporters(all those Black ministers in the South are consultants --some getting as much as 200K a pop); buying up ads (she had several minutes on every Iowa station the night before the primary); etc.

Appalled Moderate

cathyf:

I tend to think the USS Clinton will sink quickly. Without the aura of "inevitability", her elctive office resume looks little better than Edwards or Obama. Hence, by February, it may be clear she's finished.

That means that, by Superduper Tuesday, all the randoms could be flocking back to the GOP primary.

It would be nice for the GOP to have a discussion among itself. Problem is that I don't see the small government folks getting much of a role in it. (Fred Thompson seems to be the best spokesman for that viewpoint, and he seems energy deprived.)

GMax

Rick

$36mm???

Did you misread your link?

She had $50MM per the chart, and of course debits and credits to account for since October 1, but I doubt if her fundraising slowed down until maybe a few days ago.

Rick Ballard

Clarice,

But the line of people wanting to rent didn't really get shorter until she lost in Iowa. On January 1 she had $36 million on October 1st plus the all of Oct., Nov. and Dec. rental income, less expenses.

I just don't believe that she's tapped out quite yet.

clarice

neither does Thom Lifson:
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/01/endgame_will_hillary_quit_the.html

You'd be surprised how fast consultants like Penn and Mandy Gruenwald (and Shrumm) can run thru dough.Don't forget the notion was to spend so much the others gave up hope.

GMax

Duncan Hunter scheduled a press conference at 2 EST for a "major announcement". Only intrigue in my mind is whether he will throw his support to one of the top tier guys. Could make a bit of a difference in the next few contests, but he was polling about 1 -2 % in many places.

Jane

WEll I just saw a clip of her crying - because she wants so much to make sure the country doesn't slip backward. A tear ran down her cheek apparently - my old eyes missed that part.

Nothing is more fun than the denouement of Hillary. It's fun to watch the left - they seem to feel released from shackles on something.

On a different note that is undoubtedly only interesting to me: I was called to Grand jury duty today, which is something I would just love to do.

So I arrive at the Courthouse, check in and the Judge (who I know socially) takes the bench. There are 125 people for 12 spots. Then he tells us the requirements.

The grand jury meets for 3 months, 3 weeks a month, 5 days a week from 9-2. It was easy for me to get out of it, but I really wish I could have served.

MayBee

Jane- I understand your disappointment. I would love to be on a grand jury.

Other Tom

AM, you've put your finger on what for me is the great dilemma: would it be preferable that she be knocked out now so that there is no chance of her being president, or should we hope she is the nominee so she can be beaten in November? And what are the chances that Obama, if nominated, could win it all? (If forced to choose between those two, I think I would prefer Hillary, simply because of her presumably more realistic view of the Islamist threat.)

Obviously my hope that she is the eventual nominee is predicated on the assumption that if she is, she will have made herself unelectable in getting there. But I sure don't know...

clarice

Trippi says Hill's broke--going thru $20 million a month.
http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/edwards_adviser_trippi_hillary_is_broke.php>Broke

Other Tom

In 2000 Duncan Hunter was a very early and very forceful supporter of McCain.

GMax

Dont make me choose between beets and rhubarb!

I hate both.

PeterUK

Mr Ballard,
"I just don't believe that she's tapped out quite yet."

Don't forget the Contingency Fund,the one in case she doesn't win.Always keep something for a rainy day.

Jane

I just don't believe that she's tapped out quite yet.

Doesn't she have a ton of senate money she can bring over?

Too bad Norman Hsu can't help. I'd keep her out of office just to keep him from getting a pardon.

Jane

Oh and Cathy, I think you analysis, about the muddled middle is pretty much spot on.

Ann

There is always The Clinton Library Contingency Funds.

MayBee

Didn't Trippi spend astronomical amounts for Dean?

Other Tom

I suppose the phones of Charlie Tri and Johnny Chung are ringing of the hook.

I see in the piece Clarice cites that Wolfson, on Hillary's behalf, says everything's rosy financially. But when was the last time you believed anything any Clintonite said?

GMax

Or Joe Trippi for that matter. A Pox on both their houses.

Sara

Hillary is paying civilians up to $200K to generate support for her. How come I didn't get the word? I would have gladly made some nice for that kind of money. I still wouldn't have voted for her though.

MayBee

Ann- heh.

Trippi spent $45million for Dean by Jan 29, 2004- for Iowa and New Hampshire.

Hard to imagine Hillary is tapped out, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

PeterUK

On the other hand bussing supporters into NH costs money.

JM Hanes

I haven't gotten the impression that Hillary is out of money yet, but that after Iowa, the sources she was counting on flowing freely may be drying up.

Patrick:

Hillary may be finished if she loses NH by double digits, but I think she'll keep running till the "comeback kid redux" meme is killed off permanently by the delegate count.

cathyf:

"My current theory: the dopes will all pile over to the democratic ballot so that they can tell their grandchildren that they helped elect the first black president."

The traditional dynamic suggests the opposite, really. Secret ballots mean they don't actually have to vote for him to make that claim. IIRC, the number of people who say they will vote/did vote for a black candidate is almost always significantly larger than the number who actually do/did. Just like everyone in France was part of the French Underground in WWII.

That's a small distinction though, because in this instance, I do think being the first black candidate for President is a real, not illusory, plus. I suspect the hypocrisy factor is working against Mitt Romney this time; I think there are a lot of folks out there who have a problem with voting for a Mormon but who don't want to say so publicly.

I also think you're dead right about McCain. His traditional base is about to go up in smoke. Obama walks away with Independents, cross-overs, and newly minted voters -- and the press. He would absolutely crush McCain in a general election.

Jane

Obama gets the nomination and loses the election. Imagine the backlash - all race based.

Patrick Tyson

JM—

I make no prediction as to when she'll accept the inevitable. All I'm saying is that, barring something extraordinary (we are talking the future so someone could, theoretically, die after all), she won't be the nominee if she loses by double digits tomorrow.

JM Hanes

Jane:

I think there would probably be some of that, but I suspect such worries are overblown unless his opponent wins in a squeaker. What I'm pretty sure we will see is a ramping up of the Republican = racist-white-guys rhetoric from all the usual suspects during the campaign. It's already started. I do think that the fact of Obama's nomination, in and of itself, will irrevocably change the ball game. It's not like anybody could possibly claim, for example, that rumors of a black baby would hurt McCain, not help him, in SC now.

I was glad to hear Charlie Gibson put the Obama question to the Republican roundtable the other night, if only because the answers he got demonstrated just how many policy differences there are to debate.

Patrick:
Distinction noted. :)

Fi

Dems are changing the electoral colleges in the caucus sates. It's the redistricting Honda wanted. So, dem caucus allows for a loser to be a winner. Hillary can still lose, but win and the same for the electoral college. Honda and the DNCs legacy to caucuses, electoral college and probably not Dean's.

vnjagvet

I wonder what happened to the "big bombshell" that was supposed to drop over the weekend about Obama?

I haven't seen a peep. Has anyone else?

Rick Ballard

There's another SC poll out besides Rasmussen, SurveyUSA provides splits which may explain Obama's 20 point lead.

Delightful, really. I'm almost ready to believe it.

RichatUF

Rick-

Wow. Her support has collapased across the board-demographics and regionally-that poll is stunning.

Rick Ballard

Rich,

The collapse of the ground game in IA and NH is really stunning. It makes me wonder if she hasn't implemented the same type of preference hiring in her campaign that gave us Madeleine Albright, Donna Shalala and Janet Reno. If so, the Red Witch is self melting.

My bet is still on Dean - Obama couldn't have picked up quality ground staff in NH without some gentle help. Maybe a combnation of the two?

MayBee

The collapse of the ground game in IA and NH is really stunning. It makes me wonder if she hasn't implemented the same type of preference hiring in her campaign that gave us Madeleine Albright, Donna Shalala and Janet Reno

Self-melting. I like that.
Let's don't forget that she herself is the same kind of preference hiring. We knew while she was still in the White House that she would be President someday. Everyone watched as the Clintons shopped around for the state for which she would bide her time in the Senate. All because she was Bill's wife, and so we loved her.

Rick Ballard

MayBee,

I wonder how much help Donna Brazile has been giving in ramming sticks in the Clinton spokes? She's another super talented Democrat political operative who despises the Clintons (maybe more than Dean does). I believe that the Red Witch surrounds herself with political second raters to a far greater extent than Bubba did.

vnjagvet

Affirmative action/Affinity hires, Rick.

Ann Lewis, Madeline A., Emily's list/NOW gang, the Children's network, etc., etc.

clarice

She was unhappy that Kerry rather took her for granted, too, and gave her no sugnufucant role in his campaign.

You can treat your get out the plantation voters only so badly before they work against you.

MayBee

I believe that the Red Witch surrounds herself with political second raters to a far greater extent than Bubba did.

It certainly seems so. When was the last time, do you think, that Hillary met someone new that wasn't trying to give her money or apply for a job? When do you think she made her last new non-political friend?
People talk about the President being cloistered, but she's now been cloistered for close to 16 years. I'm certain she's lost all ability to judge people and judge herself. She and Bill believed their own hype.

Does Donna hate them because of the Gore campaign?

clarice

**sIgnificant***

RichatUF

Rick-

The collapse of the ground game in IA and NH is really stunning...

Down double digits in NH and by 20 in SC, her staff had to have believed the inevitability card as well. Dean might explain some of it, but this collapase also have to be partly self-inflicted. Interesting point about her judgement re staff.

In other news, the Iranians were causing trouble in the Straits of Hormuz today and oil was down-interesting tell.

kaz

Hilarity?!? crying?

Could this be the dreaded 'Muskie Moment'?

Patrick Tyson

Rick—

Maybe all it is is 1920 in the age of electronic media. Whatever it is, it isn't normalcy.

Jane

I said this before but it's almost as if democrats feel like they have been freed from their shackles and can vote for someone other than Hillary for the first time. I expect a landslide for Obama tomorrow and the Martin Luther King crack will seal the deal.

Soylent Red

I said this before but it's almost as if democrats feel like they have been freed from their shackles and can vote for someone other than Hillary for the first time.

Yeah, Jane.

What amazes me is that for the last nearly 7 years I have had to endure Clinton apologists. The guy could do no wrong in some people's eyes.

Now, their much beloved leader can't even get the party to toss him a political bone. How soon Clintonism has soured when the next icon of form over function comes along.

Dean has to be mixed up in this somehow. And that being the case, I wonder how long it will be before he feels liberated to start running his mouth again.

Topsecretk9

Ah---this one "disingenuous" way to get behind the candidate they haven't all this time - the front runner Obama.


Topsecretk9

all the lefty blogs are Townhousing the crap out of "sexism" - all linking to each other crying sexism over Hillary's crying - sexism, sexism, sexism!!!

and then MKHam reports about the conspicuous and really a first of the 2 dudes who held up shirts that said "iron my shirt" and shouted at Hillary to which she responded

"Obviously the remnants of sexism are alive and well."

like MKH notes:

Update: Is it just me, or is an overtly sexist attack of this nature-- something we haven't seen in the campaign yet to my knowledge-- just a little odd and almost too perfect? She's having a rough time of it in New Hampshure, she cries at a campaign stop, and along come two trogolodytic sexists whom she can vanquish with her grrrl power. Just seemed like a really odd attack to me. Heh, I think I'm "questioning the timing."

Sexism Plants?

http://www.townhall.com/blog/g/85c16e40-3c3f-49b1-8d86-9a4f24c28c27

JM Hanes

Soylent:

Dean may be a rhetorical snake on the public stage, but I think it's pretty clear that his primary target has been the Clintons almost from the day he lost his chance at the '04 nomination. After wresting the party from Terry McAuliffe's hands he immediately set out to decentralize control and handed the lion's share of influence back to Democratic organizations at the state level. Despite their pervasive influence, Dean essentially forced the Clintons to set themselves up as an independent operation -- one which it's suddenly become apparent that the party can, in fact, leave by the side of the road.

clarice

Right. Gangs of sexists armed to the teeth are converging on our gal and trying to hold her down with ironing boards. HEH

Ann

I brought this up awhile ago, but I still find it amusing that Hillary has to bring up walking a dog with Bill to humanize herself.
Someone else agrees at NRO:

Phony Queen Hillary Alert? [Amy Holmes]

"Hillary just said in an interview that she loves long walks which she usually takes with her husband and their dog. Uh, during which ten minutes a month they're actually within 100 miles of each other?"

"I also don't get the "I have so many opportunities for this country" crying quote. She's not the dispenser of opportunities. America is."


and another great point from NRO:


Hillary's Opportunity Society [Kathryn Jean Lopez]
"Actually, I just rewatched that video — She said from, not for."

""You know, I have so many opportunities from this country just don't want to see us fall backwards "


Can anyone tell me when this woman sincerely teared up over
something more important than herself? Did you see her tear up when Buddy got hit by a car or Socks was given away to Bill's secretary at the end of their term? Is this not the greatest example or narcissism you have seen? ( Well, next to Bill's, of course? )

Soylent Red

but I think it's pretty clear that his primary target has been the Clintons

Yup. But with the Clintons out of the way, and the Clinton wing of the party not silencing him anymore, my real hope is that he decides he is free to peddle his nuttiness again.

Moreover, once the Clinton Machine has been defanged, I wonder if the Obama machine will be strong enough to keep Dean from becoming a liability, or if the whack jobs will move in and take over.

Probably just wishful thinking on my part.

Jane

Now, their much beloved leader can't even get the party to toss him a political bone.

Soylent,

Yeah that is really interesting. The mere projection and speed of the fall is simply incomprehensible. Hillary knows it too. The Clintons have been knifing people in the back for gawd knows how many years and every one of those "victims" has decided to exact their revenge. And up until 1-5-08 they all pretending it was just fine. The whole party is disingenuous if you ask me.

As for the sexism part, that just makes me laugh. Only the most audacious person on the planet could suggest sexism is more prevalent than racism, and after this run, both isms can be declared obsolete, at least in national politics.

I would never have come up with the Dean angle, which is of course why I spend so much time here sucking up everyone else's wisdom.

maryrose

Tradesports-Hil at 25%-Obama 72% It's happening OT! How sweet it is... as for the crying -she wants us to see her as a victim of circumstances again and she is feeling sorry for herself. Don't cry for me Argentina..isn't that Evita's swan song? It fits Hil.

Rick Ballard

Dean wants to be President in 2012. Obama is an obstacle. Sorry 'bout that Hussein.

BTW - When you see a tear from the Red Witch (if it's not a blood tear), think of Billy Dale and the Travel Office staff.

maryrose

This political hit on the Clintons like Iowa was not foreseen by them and they were blindsided... The bigger they think they are.. the harder they fall...

MayBee

BTW - When you see a tear from the Red Witch (if it's not a blood tear), think of Billy Dale and the Travel Office staff.

Good thought.
I've been thinking about Monica Lewinsky and Gennifer Flowers. Hillary Talks about not going backward, but what could be more backward than the President of the US and his wife declaring someone a nut just because she gave him sexual gratification?

Rick Ballard

MayBee,

Dr. Sanity remembers, too.

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