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January 27, 2008


Jim Hu

Why is "addresses their" two links to the same stuff?


"The military does not accept people with mental problems or records of serious crimes — the likeliest killers in the civilian population — so its rate is likely to be lower and the comparison irrelevant."

Gee, shouldn't someone tell the Left this?

Other Tom

So the military rate is "likely to be lower"--you mean, one-fifth the rate of non-military? Must be a lot of psychopaths out there getting turned down for enlistment...

If the comparison with the non-military population is irrelevant, then why is the record of the veterans relevant? Relevant to what?

JM Hanes

Choice clips from Mr. Hoyty Toyty Clark:

The homicide rate for returning combat veterans could be better or worse than the civilian rate, he determined, depending entirely on how many of the 1.6 million military personnel who have been deployed in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars actually saw combat, a number the Pentagon does not have.

Didn't stop the authors from using active duty numbers in their calculations though, did it?

Purdy urged me not to get lost in the numbers as I looked at the first two articles.


Several bloggers did back-of-the-envelope calculations....

Hoyt, in an excess of tact, left out the part about how they were in their pajamas when they did it too! Bloggers, you see, don't have the resources it takes to scribble such numbers on the front pages of the New York falutin' Times.

Bill Keller, the executive editor, said the newsroom’s computer-assisted reporting unit normally screens articles with statistical analyses.

This story, however, was too good to check.

Other Tom

Even to characterize that article as containing a "statistical analysis" is beyond absurd.


It's considered a "statistical analysis" in journo school where the students are attractive, not too smart, and innumerate..


If the NYT wants to do stories on returning vets, can we expect one soon on the vets going into politics?

Rick Ballard


I believe that Hoyt is being negligently obtuse in his statements. The standard expression of the "murder rate" is X per 100K per year. The scum at the Times were pretending to evaluate a population of 1.6 million for six years. It seems to me that the formula should be 346 murders /(9,600,000/100,000) = 3.60 per 100K. Likewise, the 121 murders ascribed to "returned veterans" needs to either be reduced to a 20.16 annual rate against a total pool of X or the pool must be proportionately increased for each passing year.

I might be missing something (like that would be a shock) but I don't see that it takes a degree in statistics to figure out that the Times' Hoyt is either lieing through his teeth or too stupid to hold the job.


Come On-we all know what this is all about. It seems that a re-play of the 1970's can't be resisted. Right here, they are looking for various anecdotes, kerrytales, etc. The NYT's, being the radical left organ they are, are doing their astroturfing job. Did y'all think that "fake, but accurate" was the motto only at CBS?

Don't be surprised to see medals being thrown in a trash can and over the White House fence 13-16 March 08.



I've always disliked this nonsense, but numbers are going to put the muddle to sleep-too much emotion caused by the Iraq War. I really hope that veterans organizations are going to be out in force to respond to every charge, examine every claim, and put "on trial" Winter Solider Duex.

This is an interesting bit now that I think about it-don't be shocked by an islamist attempted breakout while "Winter Solider:Iraq, Afghanistan" is in full flower. I was thinking that the recent Palestinian violence was Tet-lite, but I'm going to pull back on that. I'm thinking that Europe [France, Spain, Portugal] and SE Asia [Phillipines, Indonesia, and Thailand] are going to be in for a rocky couple of months. The Winter Soldier Duex is just a few days before the Iranian New Year [March 19-20 2008] and the recent al-Qeada warning of a "white army" inside Britian should be cause for concern.

Also, anduril, I have a response for the Samuelson op-ed. It really bothered me and I'll drop the comments on the dead thread where we were having the conversation.

Cecil Turner

I assume everyone here has seen IowaHawk's gut-busting parody retort (and an update!).

Warning: not coffee-keyboard safe.



I would love to hear your opinion. Post it here though; all these threads are making me dizzy ;)


/Off Topic - Glenn Reynolds points to an opinion that Katie Couric made a bad career switch. I think so. I think network TV news will die, national and regional newspapers are at risk, and local newspapers still add value. Network TV news will die first. /OT

Other Tom

I missed something. What is the "Samuelson op-ed," and where may we find it?



It is a continuation of a discussion from this thread. The Samuelson op-ed is referenced here by anduril at 1042 and can be referenced here.

The op-ed bothered me: the marxist connotations regarding Wall Street pay and risk and the whole presentation of the "sub-prime crisis".


AN investigation into the illicit sale of American nuclear secrets was compromised by a senior official in the State Department, a former FBI employee has claimed.

The official is said to have tipped off a foreign contact about a bogus CIA company used to investigate the sale of nuclear secrets.

The firm, Brewster Jennings & Associates, was a front for Valerie Plame, the former CIA agent. Her public outing two years later in 2003 by White House officials became a cause célèbre.


JM Hanes


"I believe that Hoyt is being negligently obtuse in his statements."

I'm not so sure, I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks boggers literally do their calculations on the backs of envelopes, so I'd be more inclined to go with ignorantly obtuse.


windandsea, I believe the official referred to is Grossman of Libby fame and the former FBI employee is fired translator Sibel who I regard as of dubious credibility.


But Clarice, just think of the impact of the allegation. Remember that one of the key items that pushed DoJ to look at Libby was the fact that Grossman claimed it was the OVP that indirectly initiated the INR investigation that turned up Plame's role. There was never any documentary evidence to support Grossman's claim. Now, this charge provides a motive as to why Grossman would lie to focus attention elsewhere. Remember, it is the seriousness of the charge, not the nature of the evidence that counts.

I say it is time for a Special Prosecutor to be appointed to investigate how Fitz could have missed this.


Fitz has missed a bunch of stuff and Peter Lance has written tomes on that very subject.

Rich--the pundits on the tv money shows whose opinions are pretty sound feel that the Fed is going to cut another fifty basis points because there is concern with something they're seeing in their data.
Wonder if Samuelson is on to something.


Fitz has missed a bunch of stuff and Peter Lance has written tomes on that very subject.

See, I don't get this. Fitzgerald outright ignored a man was in the Army Green berets' so he wen'twen't after the administration? Maybe, but it seems far fetched.

My take, we Fitzgerald ignored stuff and went after the adminstration because Schumer and Rockefeller whispered in his ear Attorney General was in his future.


This is great:

ABC News' Rick Klein Reports: Nobel Prize winner Toni Morrison -- who famously declared Bill Clinton to be the nation's "first black president" -- is endorsing Barack Obama for president today, an Obama campaign source tells ABC News.



The Fed isn't going to win this battle. In 6-9 months they are going to be criticized for creating the next bubble. Q3 came in at 4.9% growth and 6.7% nfb productivity.


Personally, I think the Fed is tilting windmills, or just trying to help out their fundmanager buddies. Overall, the economy is not bad, the large banks??? That's another story. They really screwed the pooch, with encouragement from congress, of course.

Nick Kasoff

When you see a stories in the Times which isn't dictated by the events of the day, it's there for a reason. In this case, obviously, it is to satisfy their bias against all things pertaining to the military. These people stink.

Nick Kasoff
The Thug Report

Rick Ballard

"so I'd be more inclined to go with ignorantly obtuse."


I disagree. I didn't use ignorant because I considerate it to a requisite for employment by (and readership of) the Times. IOW, it's a given. Ignorance is easily relieved and Hoyt's abysmal failure to do so constitutes negligence. Ignorant /= stupid, although I do admit the possibility that many Times employees are both ignorant and stupid. Like the publisher for example.

My take away on the numbers is that I am four times as likely to be murdered by a civilian than by a veteran. That's news to me because I had not considered the probability to be that high.


The Fed action will help unblock new home sales and apartment construction, especially if the jumbo cap is lifted. It may be that they recognize that the current market outlook has suppressed sales to the point where an inflationary surge will occur due to pent up demand.


Nick Kasoff, I agree, the NYTs management is not going to allow a pro-US military article, no way-no how.


Jane, what a lovely catch!


The story today is that Bill is going to return to the supportive spouse role in played pre-Iowa. Lucianns says,"For their next trick they will try to stuff an oyster into a slot machine. " HEH


**role HE played pre-Iowa***


Schumer and Rockefeller whispered in his ear Attorney General was in his future
It just seems to me that would be the height of stupidity to make an assumption like that. D's winning the election is not a given.

Rich, Rick and Pofarmer--Maybe we are becoming addicted to "bubbles".
Old crop wheat in this area is fifteen dollars a bushel. New crop is around eight. Now would some brilliant child 'splain that one to me?


"Now would some brilliant child 'splain that one to me?"

Fund whiz kids not knowing what they are doing.

The Fed action will help unblock new home sales and apartment construction, especially if the jumbo cap is lifted. It may be that they recognize that the current market outlook has suppressed sales to the point where an inflationary surge will occur due to pent up demand.

Locally, we are way overbuilt, I mean, way overbuilt. I don't think a drop in the rates is gonna change that. Too many speculative buyers, to many speculative builders. Lot's of spec homes sitting on the market. They still ain't gonna move without a signifgant price drop. Now, if the commercial overbuilding is as bad as it looks theeeennnnnnn???? I don't think this thing is over, and I don't think rate cuts are gonna stop it. Rate cuts are gonna drive the $ lower, and reduce the value of alternative investments while the stock market falls. Not a good situation IMHO.


Fund whiz kids not knowing what they are doing



Okay so Rezko was re-arrested this morning. Gee who was behind that?

And where is Fitz?

Rick Ballard

"Locally, we are way overbuilt, I mean, way overbuilt."

"Locally" is meaningless wrt aggregate supply and demand. I would imagine that your local market is in much better shape than Detroit, Cleveland and Buffalo. At least MO, in aggregate, is still growing.

Actual construction (by unit count) of new housing for the period of 2000-2007 is below the average rate of 1990-1999, equal to the average rate of 1980-1989 and slightly above the average rate of 1970-1979.

Someday I hope to see a study that lays out the cost basis of the "bubble" of '05-'06. County governments which decided to take advantage of high demand in hot markets by driving developer fees through the roof bear much of the responsibility. Market demand for higher square footage is another factor that isn't exactly highlighted by the breathless press.


[i]Okay so Rezko was re-arrested this morning. Gee who was behind that?

And where is Fitz?

Posted by: Jane | January 28, 2008 at 11:23 AM[/i]

My understanding is that Fitz is running this investigation personally. Interesting timing then indeed. I wonder if all the die hard Moonbats who supported him as the paragon of virtue for so long will now turn on him for his efforts to "smear Obama" by association. Will Rezko be charged with obstruction if he refuses to implicate higher ups? I guess that job offer is only good if certain Democrats win. Funny that Rezko gets arrested a few days after Obama floats the idea of Edwards for AG.


Ann [and anduril]

I dropped the WaPo comment here. Too many threads to keep up with.


I do not know how to use the rs gold ; my friend tells me how to use.

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