Will Obama Leave The Light On For O'Hanlon?

In  WSJ piece I have read on a dead tree, former Hillary adviser Michael O'Hanlon offers the hope that Obama will welcome home the folks who supported the war in Iraq because Saddam was a monster, not because of political calculation and triangulation.

He also points out Obama and other Dems should not be so committed to defeat that they ignore the opportunities created by the tactical success of the surge in reducing the level of violence in Iraq.  Presumably that pivot, if it occurs at all, will occur after the nomination is settled.

ASIDE: In a closing note we learn that O'Hanlon was an adviser to Hillary until his support for the surge led to a mutually agreed separation.

Comments

[Other Tom]

I share O'Hanlon's hope. It concerns me a great deal that Obama has already gone way too far in what he has to say about the Middle East, particularly his "no permanent bases in Iraq" pledge. The opportunity for such bases has been hard-won, and is of great value for the Mideast and the US. To squander that opportunity under anything other than military necessity--and there surely is none--would be calamitous.

[MayBee]

Colin Powell has Obama's ear. He may not have been the Secretary of State we wanted him to be, but he will give him good military advice.

OT, I share your shared fear. I do have some hope that if the Iraqis see an "out now" Dem winning in the US, it may light a fire under them on their way to a political solution. They can definitely do better on that front. Perhaps once they do, Pres Obama could soften his stance.

[Mark E.]

Don't most people running for president want some diversity in their advisors or do they all just want echo chamber? This sounds like another Stalinist fear of differing opinions by certain people on Iraq.

[Ralph L]

Obama and other Dems should not be so committed to defeat
Something tells me O'H didn't use these words, though I wish some Democrats would be that honest.

[Sara]

What has happened to JOM that it has become an Obama fan club. The guy is ten times more dangerous than Hillary. His inexperience and pie-in-the-sky ideas are just wacky. Sure they appeal to the teeny-bopper crowd, but they are going on looks and sex appeal (something I don't see, he seems like just another skinny wimpy geek to me). They don't care about substance. Hillary may be the Red Witch, the Harridan, but she is pragmatic and has a sense of the world that is far more down to earth than Obama's fairy tale world.

Personally, I think either of them will be trounced in a General. But, to see Republicans slobbering over Obama is just creepy. And why won't he give any one-on-one interviews. What is he afraid of?

And having Colin Powell as an adviser is not a plus.

[Rick Ballard]

"it has become an Obama fan club"

Perhaps not entirely. Now, where's my whetstone....

[clarice]

Sara, what are you talking about?

[MayBee]

But, to see Republicans slobbering over Obama is just creepy. And why won't he give any one-on-one interviews. What is he afraid of?

I'm only a Republican by registration, and that is new this year so I can vote for Rudy in the CA primary. I've voted for as many Dems as Reps, and I support about 50% of both official platforms.
I'm not slobbering over Obama, but I do reccognize that ONE Dem will get the nomination. I don't want Hillary to be my President. I don't want to live through another 8 years of the Clinton circus.

[Jane]

I like Obama. I'd never vote for him, but he's not the devil incarnate. He doesn't make my teeth numb. I don't wish pain on him. I think hating one's opponents is not optimal.

But even more than that my sadistic side is in full flower when Hillary is involved. It is just so much darn fun to watch her go down. I think that's bad for me, regardless of how much I am enjoying it.

[MarkJ]

MayBee,

"Perhaps once they do, Pres Obama could soften his stance."

I get your drift...but what if "President Obama" does NOT soften his stance? The Barackster is, sure as Scheisse, going to come under a LOT of pressure from the Monster Raving Loony Faction in his party to turn tail not just in Iraq, but just about everywhere else as well.

Furthermore, my money says Obama is the kind of guy who will be widely viewed as a naive pushover not just by our foreign enemies, but even Congressional Democrats who won't take kindly to a platitude-spouting, still-wet-behind-the-ears, not-ready-for-primetime backbencher telling them what they need to do and where they need to go. Do you think Hillary Clinton will be helpful to Obama? Not a chance, unless it's in her interest to be helpful. Capisce, paisan?

That's the dilemma "The New Man from Hope" faces: if he gets in, and then starts "adjusting" his campaign promises once reality stares him in the face, he'll be viewed, quite rightly, by the Democratic base as just another triangulating hypocrite who "hyp-no-tized" them. However, if Obama actually tries to implement his apparent vision of foreign and domestic policy, the results could well lead to disaster not just for his party but for the nation as well.

Obama may yet be the "first black President." However, if he gets into the Oval Office--and isn't careful--he could be the LAST black President for a very, very long time.

[DEMO_]

Committed to defeat? The surge by definition was a temporary increase in the troop strength to provide an opportunity for political reconciliation to occur. Unless changes on the political front starts happening pretty soon, the surge isn't going to be a success.

[clarice]

Republicans Launch Effort to Rescue Clinton Candidacy by Scott Ott for ScrappleFace ·

(2008-01-07) — With the latest polls showing Democrat Sen. Barack Obama with a commanding lead in New Hampshire just hours before the state’s presidential primary, the Republican National Committee (RNC) today launched an effort to salvage the candidacy of presumed senator-for-life Hillary Clinton.

Sen. Clinton doesn’t need money, so the RNC announced a three-pronged strategy to help her: 1) Packing Clinton campaign events with enthusiastic crowds of cheering Republicans, “wearing silly hats and hemp-based fashions to conceal their identity” 2) Urging conservative independents to vote for Sen. Clinton on Tuesday, and providing grief counselors and paramedical care at poll exits for those who comply 3) Luring former President Bill Clinton into campaigning for Sen. Obama instead, by offering him $10 million and a “hip posse of Hollywood A-listers”

“There’s no difference in ideology or policies between Clinton and Obama,” said an unnamed RNC source, “But the last thing we want to face in November is a hopeful, inspiring, genuinely-likable adversary with no major ethical baggage. That’s just un-Democratic. We don’t really have a viable strategy for that, since we’ve never had to run against such a person.”

[Jane]

The surge is already a success, a political reconciliation from the ground up is in full flower. Amazing that the moonbats are now fully opposed to the grass roots.

[Sara]

Clarice, stop asking me what I'm talking about. I think I made/make myself quite clear. Take a look at the number of Obama posts, the number of comments cheering Hillary's demise and cheerleading Obama's rise here at JOM. You can count just like I can.

[Sue]

Well color me confused because on another thread Sara is touting the major democratic platform policy. National healthcare.

[Other Tom]

My understanding of the surge was that it was an increase in troop strenght in order to enable us to smite the enemy hip and thigh, which is what has happened. I know that's a terrible disappointment to anyone who dreads the thought of any use of American military power being successful, but they shouldn't be so transparent in the way they deny that it has occurred. And incidentally, since the surge began there has been enormous political reconciliation at the grass roots, and that's where it's most essential anyway.

Anyone who now talks seriously about "partitioning" Iraq is a genuine throwback to the imperialist mindset of the Balfours of this world. If the Iraqis want to partition their country, let them do it. If not, let them be.

[anduril]

Obama and Huckleberry--and Romney, too.

http://www.slate.com/id/2181460/

Sen. Obama is a congregant of a church in Chicago called Trinity United Church of Christ. I recommend that you take a brisk tour of its Web site. Run by the sort of character that the press often guardedly describes as "flamboyant"—a man calling himself the Rev. Dr. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.—this bizarre outfit describes itself as "Unashamedly Black and Unapologetically Christian" and speaks of "a chosen people" whose nature we are allowed to assume is "Afrocentric." Trinity United sells creationist books and its home page includes a graphic link to a thing called Goodsearch—the name is surmounted with a halo in its logo—which announces cheerily that "Every time you search or shop online! Our Church earns money." Much or most of what Trinity United says is harmless and boring, rather like Gov. Mike Huckabee's idiotic belief that his own success in Iowa is comparable to the "miracle" of the loaves and fishes, and the site offers a volume called Bad Girls of the Bible: Exploring Women of Questionable Virtue, which I have added to my cart, but nobody who wants to be taken seriously can possibly be associated with such a substandard and shade-oriented place.

All this easy talk about being a "uniter" and not a "divider" is piffle if people are talking out of both sides of their mouths. I have been droning on for months about how Mitt Romney needs to answer questions about the flat-out racist background of his own church, and about how Huckabee has shown in public that he does not even understand the first thing about a theory—the crucial theory of evolution by natural selection—in which he claims not to believe. Many Democrats are with me on this, but they go completely quiet when Sen. Obama chooses to give his allegiance to a crackpot church with a decidedly ethnic character.

Preemptive disclaimer: I don't agree with the entirety of every article or quote from an article that I post. It is interesting to me that so many say what a great guy Obama is but are embarrassed by Huckleberry. Why is it that religious nuttiness is OK for a black guy--we just won't talk about it--but another matter entirely for a white guy? I want no part of any of the above.

[clarice]

Sara, to cheer the Odious Wich's apparent demise is not identical to cheering for Obama.

anduril, I expect he's chosen the church for political reasons/

[Patrick Tyson]

anduril—

Not even the book?

[Sara]

Sue, that is a total mischaracterization of what I am saying about healthcare. I am saying that the change needs to come by providing a way for the millions of hardworking people who do not have access to the economies of scale that group employment insurance offers can buy at a reasonable cost, not the present $500 a month or more for one person. I don't want the government involved in any way, shape or form. Been there, done that with military care, fortunately supplemented with private insurance thru my employer. And I don't want it mandated, just made available.

But a plan that would establish a group that anyone presently unable to purchase care thru an employer could join and then purchase their own insurance is what is needed. I see it as a national group, but doing it state by state is another option. I only say national because people move around and it is a mess to transfer from one system to another.

I happen to agree on one thing Huckabee said (no the sky didn't fall), we need a wellness system too.

I was enrolled in a dental insurance system on my job that paid 70% the first year, 80% the 2nd, 90% the 3rd and 100% in the 4th. The kicker was you were required to go to the dentist twice a year each year in order to move to the next level or if you missed, you reverted back to 70%. I don't think that system is workable for general health coverage but it was a reward system for maintaing good dental health.

[Sara]

Sara, to cheer the Odious Wich's apparent demise is not identical to cheering for Obama.

You're kidding right?

Hillary would be much easier to beat than Obama.

[Sue]

Sara,

Who provides the change you are talking about?

[bgates]

Why is it that religious nuttiness is OK for a black guy--we just won't talk about it--but another matter entirely for a white guy?
Part of it is that black people are held to lower standards in the press, which is why they can write that Obama will do well in South Carolina because of its black voters. But I think the real distinction is not black v white but Democrat v Republican - Obama and Jimmy Carter get much more leeway than Huckabee or Alan Keyes.

[clarice]

Hillary might be easier to beat, but might not be. In any event she inspires the most negative thoughts on a purely personal, not political, basis.

BTW FLASH: RASMUSSEN South Carolina: Obama 42% Clinton 30%... Developing...

[anduril]

clarice, I'm not as so sure he picked that church for strictly political reasons. It could be that his wife picked it--for a number of reasons, with politics in the mix but flowing from the other reasons, like ethnocentrism. After the Clinton experience, and based on things I've heard about Obama's wife already, that's an area that deserves to be explored some more.

bgates, I don't discount that.

Patrick, I haven't read the book so I can't endorse it. Sounds intriguing--perhaps you'll review it for us?

I was out running errands for my parents (yes, I'm old enough to have a driver's license :-) ) and flipped on Medved, who is now down on Romney and saying what a terrible mistake Thompson made in waiting so long, that he's been looking great lately.

Aside on health care, the federal government runs an operation called the FEHB, which is essentially a clearing house through which private companies can offer health insurance to federal employees. By all accounts it works well. Some have suggested a similar concept on a national basis, but I don't know the details.

[anduril]

Rasmussen says Romney has closed on McCain to essentially a dead heat--Hewitt attributes it to McCain's Big Bad John performance in the last debate. He always finds a way to blow it, and even if he wins NH he'll blow it somewhere down the road.

[RichatUF]

I can't get the full text of the O'Hanlon article, but here were his thoughts last year.

Shorter: Let the surge fail in Sept 07 and begin partition on the Bosnia model.

[Semanticleo]

"The surge by definition was a temporary increase in the troop strength to provide an opportunity for political reconciliation to occur. Unless changes on the political front starts happening pretty soon, the surge isn't going to be a success."

Thank you. Now that we have set aside the unnecessary Maguire Tangent what do y'all suppose is the CORE reason for the Obamic Surge, while HRC digs a hole to China and Edwards treads water?

Could it be the WAR IN IRAQ? You know,
the one HRC and Edwards supported with AUMF?

Obama is clean. Yes, yes I know he wasn't in a position to vote when concocted. But he was in his State Legislature, and considering the War Mood in this country, was still a tenuous position for anyone to take at that time.

[Pofarmer]

"But he was in his State Legislature, and considering the War Mood in this country, was still a tenuous position for anyone to take at that time"

Whaaatttt? You gotta be kidding me.

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

At the risk of incurring Sara's wrath, Mark Kleiman gets in a nice dig at Hillary. Which includes this facetious question:

Has he no sense of decency? At long last, has he left no sense of decency?

But, I wonder if he intended the irony. Having just read M Stanton Evans' Blacklisted by History, I know how cynical Joseph Welch was in baiting Joe McCarthy into asking him about a lawyer from his (Welch's) law firm, who he had had to relieve of his duties because he discovered the young man had been a member of the notorious National Lawyers' Guild.

Welch prefaced the 'decency' line with an accusation that McCarthy--by naming the man--had inflicted a scar on him he'd have to live with for the rest of his life. While Welch was going on and on, McCarthy unsuccessfully called for the NY Times article where he'd read the information a few weeks earlier, which said:

Mr. Welch today confirmed news reports that he had relieved from duty his original second assistant, Frederick G. Fisher Jr. of his own Boston law office, because of admitted previous membership in the National Lawyer's Guild, which has been listed by Herbert Brownell Jr., the Attorney General, as a Communist-front organization.

Joseph Welch; the template for Joseph Wilson.

[glasater]

Semantic--is there any documention of Obama's saying he was against the war while in the IL state legislature?

[Patrick R. Sullivan]

Could it be the WAR IN IRAQ? You know, the one HRC and Edwards supported with AUMF?

No kidding? You think Obama might be trying to exploit the Treason Tradition of the Democrats?

[RichatUF]

cleo-

Yes, yes I know he wasn't in a position to vote when concocted. But he was in his State Legislature, and considering the War Mood in this country, was still a tenuous position for anyone to take at that time.

What? Please, pretty please, let Obama campaign on the foreign policy credential that he would have voted no on the Iraq War. It did so well for democrats in 02 and 04. 2006 was problematic, but it hasn't stopped the democrats from defunding the war-its not like they haven't tried. And what was his vote on the IRGC resolution-that's right, he is too much in love with the adulation of the crowd to be bothered to show up.

The analouge to Obama's Campaign is not Clinton 92, its Clinton 96-tell the crowds they haven't seen anything yet and be the very opposite of ambitious. We've seen that bridge, its broken down and rusting in front of the Clinton Library.

[megapotamus]

On the issue of Obama's "sex appeal"... remember it is a RELATIVE metric. Barry is blessed in the casting of this movie.

[damages]

Powell? He's the same as Rice. Secret Service has to African American. Obama's church has to be African in America. Rice, 'you should know I'm an African American.'

Why is this important? It's not; except it ruins judgement. They're racists and that is what they are saying. So, when Africom gets used by Africans or Americans, NATO is just going to say Americans knew that and we're passing on the dem tradtions.

Treason was good money. Bill is gone and Americans know better, unless they want to do it again under this African thing. Money is money.

[Semanticleo]

Delivered on 26 October 2002 at an anti-war rally in Chicago by Barack Obama, Illinois Senator.

Good afternoon. Let me begin by saying that although this has been billed as an anti-war rally, I stand before you as someone who is not opposed to war in all circumstances.

The Civil War was one of the bloodiest in history, and yet it was only through the crucible of the sword, the sacrifice of multitudes, that we could begin to perfect this union, and drive the scourge of slavery from our soil. I don’t oppose all wars.

My grandfather signed up for a war the day after Pearl Harbor was bombed, fought in Patton’s army. He saw the dead and dying across the fields of Europe; he heard the stories of fellow troops who first entered Auschwitz and Treblinka. He fought in the name of a larger freedom, part of that arsenal of democracy that triumphed over evil, and he did not fight in vain.

I don’t oppose all wars.

After September 11th, after witnessing the carnage and destruction, the dust and the tears, I supported this Administration’s pledge to hunt down and root out those who would slaughter innocents in the name of intolerance, and I would willingly take up arms myself to prevent such a tragedy from happening again.

I don’t oppose all wars. And I know that in this crowd today, there is no shortage of patriots, or of patriotism. What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other arm-chair, weekend warriors in this Administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne.

What I am opposed to is the attempt by political hacks like Karl Rove to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty rate, a drop in the median income – to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst month since the Great Depression.

That’s what I’m opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on principle but on politics.

Now let me be clear – I suffer no illusions about Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal man. A ruthless man. A man who butchers his own people to secure his own power. He has repeatedly defied UN resolutions, thwarted UN inspection teams, developed chemical and biological weapons, and coveted nuclear capacity.

He’s a bad guy. The world, and the Iraqi people, would be better off without him.

But I also know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States, or to his neighbors, that the Iraqi economy is in shambles, that the Iraqi military a fraction of its former strength, and that in concert with the international community he can be contained until, in the way of all petty dictators, he falls away into the dustbin of history.

I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.

I am not opposed to all wars. I’m opposed to dumb wars.

So for those of us who seek a more just and secure world for our children, let us send a clear message to the president today. You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s finish the fight with Bin Laden and al-Qaeda, through effective, coordinated intelligence, and a shutting down of the financial networks that support terrorism, and a homeland security program that involves more than color-coded warnings.

You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to make sure that the UN inspectors can do their work, and that we vigorously enforce a non-proliferation treaty, and that former enemies and current allies like Russia safeguard and ultimately eliminate their stores of nuclear material, and that nations like Pakistan and India never use the terrible weapons already in their possession, and that the arms merchants in our own country stop feeding the countless wars that rage across the globe.

You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to make sure our so-called allies in the Middle East, the Saudis and the Egyptians, stop oppressing their own people, and suppressing dissent, and tolerating corruption and inequality, and mismanaging their economies so that their youth grow up without education, without prospects, without hope, the ready recruits of terrorist cells.

You want a fight, President Bush? Let’s fight to wean ourselves off Middle East oil, through an energy policy that doesn’t simply serve the interests of Exxon and Mobil.

Those are the battles that we need to fight. Those are the battles that we willingly join. The battles against ignorance and intolerance. Corruption and greed. Poverty and despair.

The consequences of war are dire, the sacrifices immeasurable. We may have occasion in our lifetime to once again rise up in defense of our freedom, and pay the wages of war. But we ought not – we will not – travel down that hellish path blindly. Nor should we allow those who would march off and pay the ultimate sacrifice, who would prove the full measure of devotion with their blood, to make such an awful sacrifice in vain.

[Rick Ballard]

Oh yeah, he'll be tough to beat. The Copperhead Express is ready to roar into history with Hussein at the throttle.

[RichatUF]

cleo-

Platitudinous-

If this is true:

He has repeatedly defied UN resolutions, thwarted UN inspection teams, developed chemical and biological weapons, and coveted nuclear capacity

And his solution would be:

Let’s fight to make sure that the UN inspectors can do their work...

But he is unwilling to act upon his pronouncements, "...but I also know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States...", his policy is little more than Clinton-lite with regards to Iraq [sanctions, embargo, poorly planned coup attempts, and an essentially pointless, but dangerous, air war]. It is nice to know that he supports the Civil War and WW2-Clintonian sentiments.

[DEMO_]

Good speech.

[Porchlight]

Why is it that religious nuttiness is OK for a black guy--we just won't talk about it--but another matter entirely for a white guy?

This is something I've always wondered about, too. I think it's a form of soft racism, practiced mostly by white liberals: to wit, it's okay for brown people to engage in colorful or eccentric religious worship - that's "fascinating" and "soulful." [read: They're brown, they can't help themselves]

But in the same people's eyes, white people ought to know better, so when whites do it, it's just kooky and weird. So: Obama's church = OK, Mitt's and Huck's churches = not OK.

Here in Texas you see liberal whites having a similar fascination with Mexican folk religion, going all gaga over the little Day of the Dead skeletons and other icons. The same kind of things they would find bizarre and terrifying, no doubt, if they belonged to a white Protestant sect.

It's the same worldview that populates Soc/Anthro departments the world over.

[Semanticleo]

Platitudinous-

Glasater asked for something which documented his pre-war position. That's all I'm offering here. Personally, I prefer Edwards.

[Other Tom]

Cleo, if that's the reason Obama's ahead, why did he have to "surge" into the lead? Why wasn't he ahead of her the moment he declared (when the outcome of the war was looking bleak)?

My firm conviction is that the people have seen her--and her husband--in this campaign, and are repelled. "Premature triangulation," as someone (Dick Morris?) called it. And don't forget the driver's license interlude during that debate a month or so ago, followed by the cackle at Obama, to which he replied so skillfully.

[Syl]

The Copperhead Express is ready to roar into history with Hussein at the throttle.

No kidding.

And Obama, in his wisdom, didn't have a clue about the Oil for Food corruption nor that the sanctions were breaking down. Nor will he nor any Democrat admit that Osama had left the building in Dec of 2001!

And to me it is appalling that Obama credits the Dems win in '06 for the Anbar Awakening. If we've learned anything from Iraq, it's the brutality and inhumanity of our enemy, and the way they moved into communities and held the Iraqis hostage via brutality and intimidation.

al Qaeda was beheading children! And Anbar was damn sick of that. As far back as 2005 I had noted that some sheiks were calling on the Americans for help. Unfortunately, except for a couple of occasions, we mostly ignored them.

The Awakening was already occurring but unfortunately we didn't start to do anything about it until we had the extra troops in the surge.

[Semanticleo]

"My firm conviction is that the people have seen her--and her husband--in this campaign, and are repelled."

Perhaps, but the flip-side is exposure to Obama. People are shopping, and while they shop they narrow their choices based upon what they discover for themselves. I am cautious about anyone with charisma, but I don't detect any measure of megelomania, yet.

[RichatUF]

Last minute campaiging news...

The Clinton machine is grasping at straws on this

Obama communications director Robert Gibbs said Demers is a state lobbyist and does not do business involving federal legislation or regulation. He said the campaign has drawn a distinction between lobbyists who are registered to work at the state level and those who lobby the federal government.

Sly-

And Obama, in his wisdom, didn't have a clue about the Oil for Food corruption nor that the sanctions were breaking down

You are probably right, the msm made sure that this item and this one too didn't get too much play. I think it was a couple of days ago that an Iraqi official blamed the habits of corruption from the Oil-for-Food days. The more I look at Obama, the more I see Bill Clinton.

[Semanticleo]

"The more I look at Obama, the more I see Bill Clinton."

It is interesting that Hill apparently learned nothing politically expedient from her husband's handling of the Lewinsky affair.

I'm inclined to think if she had(as Edwards)
had mea culpa'd on her legion of Iraq capitulations, she'd be in much better shape.

[Semanticleo]

Perhaps the days of 'never explain, never apologize' are over.

[anduril]

Rich, Cleo, that's part of what I had in mind when I remarked about Obama's wife. While no one is legally responsible for their spouse's actions (absent direct involvement in those actions), everyone is to some significant degree responsible for their choice of a spouse. Look at Bill and Hill--and shudder. As so many have commented, they feed off each other's pathologies. But if half of what I'm hearing about Michelle Obama is true, then there may be a side to Hussein that has not yet been made public.

[Other Tom]

"Perhaps, but the flip-side is exposure to Obama. People are shopping,..."

OK, but what's that got to do with their long-public views on the war, or the success or failure of the surge?

In any event, happily discharging my duty to issue periodic Tradesports updates, it is now 68 to 29.5, Obama.

[SteveMG]

Perhaps the days of 'never explain, never apologize' are over

Would you like to poll us on whether we believe that you and your friends would have uncritically accepted Bush's contrition?

BTW, the margin of error on that would be 0%.

[Semanticleo]

"OK, but what's that got to do with their long-public views on the war,"

Sorry. I thought that was implicit in my reply. 'Long' public views confuses me.

Public support of the war has dwindled and there is frustration that Dems have not carried out voter wishes. As Obama's persona becomes more commonplace, his opposition to the war follows. There is no flip-flop, making it tidy and neat. There is no waffle to be concerned with; hence they throw in their fickle support.

[anduril]

Re the Obam' phenom:

Appearances on this forum to the contrary, most people still are paying next to no attention to the primary process--and never will. Only the political junkies and true believers are involved at this point. For the vast majority, their attention will perk up only when candidates have been selected at the conventions. Then, and only then, will they experience Obama's slumber inducing style. If the Republicans can provide a viable alternative they'll be in good shape.

[Semanticleo]

BTW;

My 20 year-old starts 'The Crucible' tomorrow.
He was six points shy of 'Expert'. but can re-qualify later.

[maryrose]

She's melting... She's melting... and now she's crying about it. I did predict this scenario months ago because of her high negatives and I am grateful to Iowa and NH for pouring on the water...

[RichatUF]

Semanticleo

My 20 year-old starts 'The Crucible' tomorrow

Best wishes to him.

[MayBee]

Seman- I'm guessing you don't mean the Arthur Miller play?

[Semanticleo]

Sorry MayBee.

Zack is in Marine bootcamp. Graduates next week.

Thanks for the good thought, Rich.

[clarice]

I think I speak for the others who may have missed your post, Semantic--best wishes to your son.

[MayBee]

Godspeed to him, Seman.

[RichatUF]

anduril-

I'm hoping that the Republican nominee can puncture the "charismatic bubble" around him. You [at least I think it was you] brought up the very good point about the "church" he is a member of. If the R nominee is Romney, and his faith is not off limits, why should Obama be able to hide behind the race card about questions of his Afro-centric, liberation theology faith.

I'm thinking that Obama's campaign might be looking to Clinton/Gore 1996 for some parallels [at least in the electoral map, not the Chinese money]. In 1996, Perot's canadidacy generated 10% of the vote in the list of states that Rick provided a while back. Clinton won 9 of the 11 states, and all 3rd party vote exceeded the margin of victory in 7 of those states [meaning Perot hurt Clinton, but not enough for Clinton to loose]. One interesting point about that set of states is that turn out was down about 6% from 1992. If Obama figures that he can keep the traditional Democrat alliance together and generate enough enthusiasm in independents [appealing to a center-right populism] that they come and vote for him, Clinton's easy 1996 election win becomes a landslide.

This wouldn't even need to include a "Hispanic" voter message that I was trying to devine [I got the numbers about a third done and was thinking that Hillary! may try to create a wedge between black and hispanic voters which she could exploit in MO and VA on the one side and AZ and CO on the other].

[clarice]

Time confirms Hill has money problems..

Along with a change of her political fortunes as the result of her devastating loss in Iowa and dropping poll numbers in New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton's once-flush presidential campaign now faces a problem that few would have expected at this point: a sudden urgency to raise a lot of money fast.

With momentum against her and a battle plan that appears to be staking everything on the big and expensive states like New York and California that hold their primaries on February 5, Clinton's campaign is putting new pressure on its fundraisers to come up with the cash she will need to carry her through. "Clearly, by every measure, I hear they are in a real financial crunch," says one prominent fundraiser. "Here's the dilemma: You have a situation where there clearly is a full court press to raise more money, but considering the state of decline of the campaign, there's a real question of whether people are going to want to give. It's more than just raising money; you've got to give people a sense of potential."

One reason for the new drive to raise cash quickly is the fact that Clinton spent lavishly on what turned out to be a debacle in Iowa. Numbers circulating among fundraisers — but not confirmed by the campaign — suggest that the campaign may have as little as $15 million to $25 million left on hand. While that is enormous by historic standards, it is less than half the nearly $50.5 million she had at the end of September (when she enjoyed a significant advantage over Barack Obama's $36 million on hand).

What's more, campaign officials believe that Obama's Iowa victory has almost certainly been accompanied by a financial windfall for his campaign...

snip

[Crew v1.0]

O'Hanlon is right. This war began as an exercise in bipartisan foreign policy, and it ended with Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Carl Levin tossing mashed potatoes, carrots and peas at Bush, Cheney, Lieberman, McCain and even Petraeus. If Obama wants to be truly post-partisan, he needs to stop nagging me about the war and pretending (because it must only be pretense by now) that Iraq counts as a horrible blunder, much less the worst in our history. Stop already.

[Semanticleo]

Thanks Clarice, Maybee.

Despite our political
differences, they are minor and compress the divide between human souls, and multiply the major component of compassion which we share in abundance.

[RichatUF]

Semanticleo-

Graduates next week

I had to go to the range 3 times to qualify. I improved throughout my enlistment. One thing he should check into after he gets to his unit is the GI Bill Buy-Up to add to any educational benefits he may already have enlisted for. Don't want to pry into the situation too much, but it is a great benefit and well worth the $600 (or $50 a month) investment. My other bit of advice would be to serve overseas, learn the language, and take the DLPT...even if he makes a 1+1+1 he gets a lauguage bouns [don't quote me on that] and gets an identifier at 2+2+0.

[Semanticleo]

Rich;

Thanks for the tip. I will pass it on.

[sbw]

Cleo, much as we are at odds on what is best for the country and the world, we are together in support of your son.

[JM Hanes]

anduril:

"Why is it that religious nuttiness is OK for a black guy--we just won't talk about it--but another matter entirely for a white guy?"

I'd say there's a more obvious divide between what's OK for Democrats and not OK for Republicans. It's not like Bill Clinton never talked about faith. The fact that black Democrats are given a pass has as much to do with political calculations as it does with race.

As far as I'm personally concerned the Obama/Huckabee divide on religion has nothing to do with race, although I'd be the first to admit enjoying the cadence of Obama's speeches, which I do associate with black evangelicals in the south and former leaders like Martin Luther King. Huckabee reminds me of fast talking southern salesmen which doesn't help, but the fact that his Christian credentials are an explicit part of his sales pitch puts me off completely. Right up till he arrived in New Hampshire, he avoided policy questions by answering with homilies, and tried to pass off outrageous slams on Romney's Mormon faith as innocent little remarks. comments from more than one Arkansas D.A. suggest that finding Jesus was the surest way to find yourself pardoned by the guv. It's the whole package I don't like. If he weren't selling Christian leadership, it wouldn't really matter what church he attended or led.

[JM Hanes]

anduril:

"Why is it that religious nuttiness is OK for a black guy--we just won't talk about it--but another matter entirely for a white guy?"

I'd say there's a more obvious divide between what's OK for Democrats and not OK for Republicans. It's not like Bill Clinton never talked about faith. The fact that black Democrats are given a pass has as much to do with political calculations as it does with race.

As far as I'm personally concerned the Obama/Huckabee divide on religion has nothing to do with race, although I'd be the first to admit enjoying the cadence of Obama's speeches, which I do associate with black evangelicals in the south and former leaders like Martin Luther King. Huckabee reminds me of fast talking southern salesmen which doesn't help, but the fact that his Christian credentials are an explicit part of his sales pitch puts me off completely. Right up till he arrived in New Hampshire, he avoided policy questions by answering with homilies, and tried to pass off outrageous slams on Romney's Mormon faith as innocent little remarks. comments from more than one Arkansas D.A. suggest that finding Jesus was the surest way to find yourself pardoned by the guv. It's the whole package I don't like. If he weren't selling Christian leadership, it wouldn't really matter what church he attended or led.

[Ann]

Semanticleo,

We might disagree on politics, but there is one thing we can all agree on here, we wish your son the best, admire his service, sacrifice, and love of country - Semper Fidelis.

Keep us updated. We actually support the troops here at JOM. :)

[Nick Kasoff]

Where is George McGovern when we need him? Oh, yeah, he has been reincarnated as Barak Obama.

Nick Kasoff
The Thug Report

[Rick Ballard]

Tic,

Tell Zack that there are a whole bunch of evil Republicans wishing him the very best and praying for a safe and honorable completion of the life mission which he has undertaken.

/nice guy

[Soylent Red]

Semanticleo:

Congratulate your son on his entrance into the second best branch in the service. ;)

And to pile on what Rich said, by all means encourage him to investigate and take full advantage of everything his favorite Uncle Sam offers him (DLI-training, GI Bill, Thrift Savings Plan). They're giving away the farm right now.

[Semanticleo]

Marlmalard, Soylent, sbw;

I will convey your sincere regards.

[Jim Rockford]

Obama is not going anywhere in the General. If he gets that far.

Hillary has plenty of dirt: alleged drug dealing in College. Stealth Muslim. Terrorist Madrassa days. Racist black national church and pastor. His autobiography where he says he hates white people, drops a girl he loves (white) because he won't marry into a white family (he again says he hates whites). Drops a half brother because he's a Phd in Physics and is not "black enough" since he loves classical music and European culture. Celebrates a habitual drunkard half brother (another one) who becomes a Muslim.

This isn't an episode of 24. In the privacy of the voting booth, Obama is not getting the votes in the general election. He's McGovern wipe-out time.

Because both Hillary and Reps will use that dirt.

Policy wise, Obama will have open borders, Amnesty, and 40 million extra Mexicans driving wages down to Mexican levels. [40% of Mexicans say they want to move to the US -- Mexico's population, around 100 million. You do the math.]

That's a loser. Turning the US into Mexico.

Foreign policy wise, Obama is weak and exudes weakness and surrender. Surrender in Iraq to AQ. Surrender in Pakistan to AQ. Allowing Al Qaeda to topple Musharraf and seize control of nuclear weapons, Obama's answer is "negotiate." Against Iranian provocations, Obama's answer is "negotiate."

When/if it comes to pulling the trigger, Obama will back down. Because he's weak. Doesn't believe in America and thinks safety is garnered by having other people "like us." Hence his idiot talk of getting security because his Grandma lives in a mud hut in Africa.

In the General Election Americans would see that weakness, which stems from a belief in pacifism and the worthlessness of America (why fight for something you don't believe in) and even HUCK could beat him. Romney or McCain crush him.

Iran announces nukes, AQ takes over in Pakistan, or just Pakistan closes it's territory for Afghan re-supply and our guys get starved out there, and you'll see Obama in free-fall.

Obama is only a play if the outside world seems "safe." Since that won't last long Hillary's bet is to wait out until bad things happen again (which is guaranteed, like say Iran trying/achieving a sinking of a US warship in international waters).

"Will he/she pull the trigger?"

For Obama the answer is no. A resounding no. Hillary, McCain, Rudy, Romney, Fred, even Huck the answer is YES.

[anduril]

JMH, I think I hear where you're coming from, but there are still problems. When Clinton spoke of faith, no one took it seriously--everyone knew it was just window dressing. He said what was necessary and that was it. When you read about Hillary's old leftist faith, you know she still has it. I agree about Huckleberry--the whole package makes me very uneasy. What I worry about in re Obam' the phenom is that we're not getting the full picture. He's selling a faith, alright, even if he's not talking about it explicitly--but I want to know what it is. The church he picked was probably not picked by accident, and may be his wife's choice. His faith may ultimately have little to do with that church's tenets, but more about attitudes. Thanks for the thoughtful post.

[clarice]

Is it just me? Frankly, the more I listen to those Luntz focus groups, the more I think my fellow citizens are utter dopes.

[Jane]

You know how I think of it Clarice? politics comes in layers - there are the junkies, the people who knew for example that Obama was clueless about the Anbar Awakening the moment he opened his mouth. For the vast vast vast majority of voters that never registered and it never will. Those are the people who were watching this race 4 years ago, long before it happened.

Then there is the group - probably most of the people at the focus group, who know they hate/like Bush, know that defense is important, or not, and listen and hear buzz words, and determine whether the candidate sounds truthful or not.

Then there are the rest of the country, who do what their spouse tells them, or their labor union, or the opposite of what their crazy neighbor wants.

The latter group chooses the president. The rest of us are merely bystanders.

[Ann]

Utter dopes, yes!! It is really unbelievable how uninformed our electorate is and a coming of four years of Carter it will prove to be if we don't get a media that reports and does not decide
our fate.

These first two primaries really mean nothing, but the media is deciding all of this for us by their reporting

[anduril]

Not all are dopes. Some are thieves and rascals of various sorts.

[Other Tom]

Cleo, please give your son my heartiest congratulations and godspeed. There is no greater admirer of the Corps than this former Naval officer.

But: "Public support of the war has dwindled ..." Actually, support for it has actually increased since before any part of Hillary's lead in the polls began to erode.

[vnjagvet]

Semanticleo:

God bless and keep your son. Please convey to him my thanks for his service.

Sara:

I can't speak for anyone else here, but I am just calling them as I see them. Hillary! has run into a personality buzzsaw, and she cannot hope to win a presidential election shielded from scrutiny.

That is her undoing, unfortunately for her and the quest for another Clinton dynasty.

[clarice]

Really, it's a temptation to sin to watch those groups of knotheads. Makes me want to fly PUK here ans start up our businesses for real.

[anduril]

Speaking of dopes, I was listening to Dean Barnett interviewing Scott Rasmussen. It seems that Obama and McCain may be fighting it out in NH for the independent vote, which may help Hillary and Romney. Whenever I hear about "independents" I think of Perotistas I spoke to back in the 90's.

[Ann]

Clarice,

I would invest anything I could to something you and PUK came up with, but right now I am investing in Fred08 or Mitt/Fred08.

[Rick Ballard]

Patrick Ruffini provides a strong rationale for why the "ding dong" song isn't appropriate quite yet. There's a big union endorsement in Nevada that is being held pending the outcome in NH.

I think that Ruffini is correct - Clinton will downplay SC where she will be beaten and shoot for a "comeback" in NV. That union endorsement may not be worth as much as SEIOU but it certainly has some value.

[clarice]

Ruffini thinks Richardson will run interference with Hispanic voters for Hillary? Doesn't look like to me like Richardson and Hillary will step over eachother's dead bodies.For some reason there seems to be no love lost between them.

[Rick Ballard]

Clarice,

You're right about that. Ruffini missed a piece of the puzzle there. I do believe that we'll see a "major shakeup" and a focus on Super Tuesday from now on and the NV idea makes sense. I would have mentioned Reid rather than Richardson.

Here is a piece on that endorsement.

It may be that the union plans to plant another blade. Why are they waiting on the NH results?

[Syl]

Semanticleo:

Oh man, I wish your son the best! I know you're so damn proud of him. Bless you both!

[Syl]

Obama is only a play if the outside world seems "safe."

People wondered why Hillary was getting so much support even though she voted for the AUMF and refused to apologize. I think it was insurance.

The success of the surge destroyed her chances.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

I think that Ruffini is correct - Clinton will downplay SC where she will be beaten and shoot for a "comeback" in NV.

I'm not willing to say her candidacy is over but I really don't see how NV could be the firebreak he imagines. The good thing is that it is a closed primary, however, it looks like The Red Witch's support is collapasing within the party as well. Obama is well out in front in SC and can afford to campaign more than he expected too in NV. Richardson's draw isn't going to close any gaps and he had his supporters go to Obama in Iowa anyway. The only thing that can hurt him now is his front-runner status and all the serious Republican contenders can start taking their shots [just today the Iranians were stirring up trouble with the US Navy, the same Iranians Obama wants to talk to].

[Other Tom]

Not much point in reporting Tradesports anymore, so I'll issue this final report and then abandon my duty station: it's now 71.5 to 26. This thing is going to be a "contest" in the sense that a hanging is a contest between a man and a rope.

I hope the Nevada comeback and Feb. 5 salvation scenario comes to pass, but I think this thing is too far gone now, and the biggest hurdle she faces is the one that caused her lead to dissipate in the first place: the more people see her campaigning, the less they like her. You can't run for president if you avoid questioners, and dance around those questions you can't avoid. But if she would somehow end up getting the nomination now, the Obama zealots would never forgive her. Incidentally, I saw today that the two are now in a dead heat nationally.

I can't begin to figure the Repubs, except that my severe depression continues unabated.

[Rick Ballard]

Rich,

I agree - if you'll tell me that the dirtiest piece of laundry that Hussein owns isn't going to be featured from Wednesday on.

She either goes further into the gutter or out the door.

[Syl]

How have the Reps characterized 'the enemy'?

(1)Rudy names them: Islamic extremists/whatever

(2)Fred understands but nobody hears

(3)McCain talks mainly in war terms

(4)Huck: more like Christianity against Islam

(5) Mitt: Islam fighting with itself.

I choose for this (5).

Mitt clearly gets what's going on and in the definition there is the solution.

Bush either understands, or stumbled into it, but Iraq has shown the Islamic world exactly what they're dealing with within Islam itself.

The top Saudi cleric who used to exhort that it's a religious duty to go to Iraq and fight, has not only moved off that position but has come out fore square against al Qaeda.

The man who wrote one of al Qaeda's 'manuals' and who was imprisoned with Zawahiri for the assassination of Sadat has completely changed his tune. Not only has he come out against al Qaeda its methods and goals, but he accuses Zawahiri of being a backstabber. That's going to sting.

It seems only the Left hasn't noticed that the Islamic extremists are the ones causing all the death and destruction in the muslim world. But the muslim world certainly has noticed.

Bit by bit, cleric by cleric, things will change. The entire world's attention has been on Iraq for several years. It's been damn difficult for the Iraqi people, but they've been part of this struggle themselves.

But it will take time. A long time. Especially when the muslim world still entangles itself in conspiracy theories and often simply shrugs off the extremists, and the Left (and Ron Paul) blames America for everything.

We'll weather this. But we do need leaders who understand what the basic struggle is and who know when to prod, and when to leave alone. Know who to support---and when to stop supporting them. Know how to put teeth into diplomacy so it actually means something.

anyway, this election is about a lot, but it hit me that Mitt understands who the enemy is and the dynamics in play.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

Why are they waiting on the NH results?

To drive the final stake into the Red Witch...Obama even joined the picket line of a "Unite Here" strike in Chicago. They might also be looking to see if Edwards can pull of a 2nd place finish in NH (then throw in with Edwards).

[clarice]

Well, I'd scratch Ruffini as some kinds maven.I can't imagine how Nevada will pull her out of this nosedive.

[RichatUF]

Rick-

She either goes further into the gutter or out the door.

I'm sure Mark Penn and Mrs. Cooper are looking for some food-tasters right about now. Where is Dick Morris when you need him?

[clarice]

WSJ Several Senators about to announce for Obama--money getting tight --Nev:"The road may get harder immediately after New Hampshire. The all-important Culinary Workers union in Nevada, the next state to vote on Jan. 19, is considering backing Sen. Obama a day after a New Hampshire win, say some high-ranking Democrats. The support of the state's largest union by far would virtually hand him a victory in the labor-dominated caucuses there, Democrats say. And the Clinton campaign is considering effectively ceding South Carolina, which votes a week later. Her once-strong support in the state's large black population eroded and Sen. Obama opened a big lead in polls after Iowa's caucus results energized many blacks with the prospect that a man of their race stands a realistic chance of being nominated."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119976546847474153.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news>Nosedive

[mennak]

excrement of the Indonesian luwak?

[JM Hanes]

aduril:

I'm always glad to see you commenting here.

Part of the reason that I'm relatively sanguine about Obama's religious affiliation is that it doesn't immediately strike me as unusual -- though in part I suppose that might be a function being unfamiliar with the particulars mentioned here. There's a reason that black leadership so frequently emerges from churches though, which might not be so readily apparent outside the south. Black evangelical churches here are social as well as religious institutions. This may also be true of white evangelical institutions, which I'll admit to knowing less about and won't try to characterize, but the two groups have a very different history.

To cut very quickly to the chase however, church going has never been just a once a week affair. For those with minimal resources, education and opportunity, churches are where you go for religion, and information, and entertainment. If you don't know how to read or write proficiently, it's where you go to find a job by word of mouth, or to get help if you're in trouble -- or to find out who you should vote for from a leader you respect and upon whose judgment you rely. That's part of why folks traditionally vote in blocks -- and why they can also be particularly susceptible to charismatic leadership.

African Americans were virtually shut out off from both public and private secular institutions -- as well as white religious institutions -- for a very, very long time, and not infrequently actually victimized by them. Churches provided both resources and havens which were simply not available anywhere else, and thus assumed a central place in civic as well as religious life that continues today. Urbanization came late to the south. Until relatively recently, rural southerners went north to look for work -- you'd be surprised at how often folks from my neighborhood head up to Detroit to visit relatives -- where they attend churches not unlike those they know at home.

If black evangelicals do get something of a pass, I think it's partly because the traditional church vs state demarcation lines which seem so clear elsewhere are a little harder to draw with confidence. I don't think the same case can be made when it comes to white evangelicals who, it seems to me, made a deliberate bid to exercise political power as a religious pressure group. Perhaps unfairly, I see that as a political movement of an entirely different nature.

[JM Hanes]

Rich:

Last time I saw Dick Morris, he was telling someone that if you think Bill's Sister Souljah moment "just happened" on the stump you might as well make an offer on the Brooklyn Bridge.

OT:

I might have been depressed, but your Tradesports wrap up left me laughing out loud. Have a drink on me. Have two. Take the bottle.